From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Andrew Merten
Everyone from economists to your average investor keeps their eyes on the market after yesterday's big stock plunge; Senate Democrats have postponed debate over repealing the 2002 war authorization; their colleagues in the House continue to discuss how to proceed with Bush's war-spending request; and the longest presidential campaign in memory keeps trucking along.

With the campaigns already skirmishing in public, rallies attracting thousands of attendees, numerous high-profile fundraisers raking in millions, and even one prominent candidate (Romney) already airing TV ads, it's worth repeating that the presidential election is still more than 600 days away. Just how early has it started? Consider that your First Read team, who seemed to cover every minute of the 2004 presidential campaign for NBC, hadn't even begun working for the network at this point in the '04 cycle.

While individual campaigns have gotten off to early starts before (think Jimmy Carter's bid in 1976), what's different about this cycle is that the entire field, save a possible additional candidate or two, is already up and running. And, per longtime political observers, that could produce a series of unintended consequences.

Theoretically, for example, the longer campaign and nominating process could give an underdog a greater chance of winning a party's nomination, because there's simply more time for the frontrunner to stumble. Or it could make it harder for the underdogs, says nonpartisan political analyst Stuart Rothenberg. "The full sprint we are now in makes it impossible for long-shots to define themselves, bond with voters, and make their cases."

In addition, the long campaign could lead to less substantive news, since the candidates will have to spend more time fundraising (usually behind closed doors) just to make it through the primaries. NBC political analyst Charlie Cook adds that the intense scrutiny could also diminish the significance of all but the worst campaign gaffes. "Had the Obama 'wasted' remark been in the last week before Iowa or New Hampshire, wouldn't it have been more damaging?" he asks. (While campaigning in Iowa earlier in the month, Obama said, "We ended up launching a war that should have never been authorized and should have never been waged to which we now have spent over $400 billion and have seen over 3,000 lives of the bravest young Americans wasted" -- which produced some mild controversy.)

But the greatest consequence, Rothenberg says, could be voter fatigue. "I can't see how voters can't grow tired of the saturated coverage. Certainly we are seeing every molehill made into a mountain."

On Capitol Hill, Rep. Marty Meehan (D) holds a press conference introducing legislation that would repeal the "don't ask, don't tell" policy on gays in the military. Joining Meehan will be Eric Alva, a retired Marine who was the first injured soldier in the Iraq war, and Alva will announce for the first time that he is gay. Although not a front-burner issue, many of the oh-eight candidates have staked out positions on "don't ask, don't tell." All the Democratic front-runners (Clinton, Edwards, Obama) support its repeal, while McCain and Romney want to maintain it; Giuliani, to the best of our knowledge, hasn't commented on it.

Elsewhere, Chicago Mayor Richard Daley easily won a sixth term yesterday. The jury in the Libby trial continues its deliberations today. And fresh off his documentary's Oscar -- and new speculation about whether he will jump into the race -- Al Gore gives a lecture tonight at the University of Miami (FL).

Strick says that at Reid's weekly news conference yesterday, he insisted Democrats were "united" against the president's war strategy. But he also said, "There has not yet been a determination made ... as to how we will finalize our legislative approach to this. There are a number of different ways we can go." And he refused to say which strategy he preferred. "I have a preference of making sure that I have my arms around the entire caucus before I put my name on an amendment."

Meanwhile, NBC's Mike Viqueira notes that House Democrats met for an hour and half behind closed doors last night to come to a consensus position on Bush's war spending request for Iraq. Bottom line: They are still talking. They appear to be moving towards something along the lines of what Rep. John Murtha (D) has proposed -- tying the funds to troop readiness levels with the possibility of a presidential waiver. However, leading antiwar Dems like Rep. Lynn Woolsey say that they will not vote for any bill that continues funding the war. A final decision, Viq says, is due within the next ten days to two weeks.

The New York Times writes that after they emerged from their meeting, House Democrats "sought to rebut the Republican charge that the troops would suffer from their efforts to change the administration's troop buildup in Iraq. 'Let me be clear,' Ms. Pelosi told reporters. 'We will fund the troops.'"

The Chicago Tribune: "Democratic leaders remain fearful that if they do not handle the situation deftly, Republicans will paint them as micromanaging the war and failing to support the troops. On the other hand, many of the voters and groups that helped the Democrats win in November may grow frustrated and impatient if the party does not take strong action to challenge Bush's initiatives in Iraq."

Looks like Rep. Murtha isn't the only Democrat seeing his latest proposal for Iraq jeopardized by a too-early release. "Senate Democrats are accusing their leaders of mismanaging the twin efforts to block President Bush's troop surge in Iraq and force a quicker end to the war," The Politico reports. "Senate insiders faulted [Foreign Relations chair Joe] Biden and, to a lesser extent, [Armed Services chair Carl] Levin, for telegraphing their plans to Republicans prematurely -- before most members were fully briefed on it." In an effort to promote transparency in journalism, The Politico's editor-in-chief writes on the site that he actually coined the term "slow-bleed" in the process of editing a reporter's story. The term originally was used in a Politico report about Democrats' efforts to narrow President Bush's options on Iraq, but Republicans have seized upon the term to accuse Democrats of trying to deprive US troops of necessary support.

Bush's new director of national intelligence testified before a Senate committee yesterday that the term "civil war 'accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict.'" He also "cited achievements in Iraq, including efforts by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to bridge sectarian divisions and an increase in the number and quality of Iraqi security forces." 

Appeal for Redress, an organization of more than 1,600 active-duty soldiers speaking out against the continuing military presence in Iraq, held a conference call with reporters yesterday about the movement's appeal to Congress to act against the Bush Administration's troop increase. "These are soldiers who are not going AWOL, not resigning, but serving faithfully and love their country -- but at same time have a questioning attitude and misgivings about the war," said Navy petty officer Jonathan Hutto, co-founder of the movement. Because active-duty personnel cannot officially organize dissenting movements, Appeal for Redress has been depending primarily on its Web site and media coverage, and has seen its numbers grow by several hundred since CBS' 60 Minutes aired a piece about the group last Sunday.

The New York Times says stock markets "fell sharply across most of Asia again today and continued declining in Europe as investors worried about weakness in the American economy. But share prices rebounded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, the mainland Chinese stock markets that had been the first to tumble during Tuesday's global sell-off."

Another Times article notes: "In America, [yesterday's] selling seemed to add to worries that a decline in the housing market, and problems in particular with loans to risky borrowers, could spill over. And a report yesterday indicating that orders for durable goods … were surprisingly weak in January revived doubts about the strength of the American economy."

The AP adds that Fed chief Ben Bernanke is set to testify on Capitol Hill today about the economy. "His remarks follow comments from former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, who stirred concern about the health of the U.S. economy with a warning over the weekend that a recession could take hold later this year."

A Washington Post survey finds "a noticeable shift in sentiment among African American voters" toward Sen. Barack Obama's candidacy. That shift has helped Obama slice Clinton's overall lead in half. And on the GOP side, a shift among white evangelical Protestants in favor of Rudy Giuliani is behind Giuliani's "2 to 1 advantage over McCain among Republicans... Giuliani is doing well among this group of Americans despite his support of abortion rights and gay rights... McCain opposes abortion rights... Early national polls are not always good predictors for presidential campaigns, but the Post-ABC poll offers clues to the competition ahead." 

As many as 23 states could hold their presidential nominating contests on February 5, The Hill reports, thanks to encouragement from the top presidential contenders who are looking to capitalize on their frontrunner status.

Also in The Hill: the latest look at viral marketing, noting that the "explosion in person-to-person communication ... will create enormous opportunities for campaigns but also raises the risk that an unguarded moment will spread at lightning speed to sink a candidacy, political consultants say."

As many as 23 states could hold their presidential nominating contests on February 5, The Hill reports, thanks to encouragement from the top presidential contenders who are looking to capitalize on their frontrunner status. 

Also in The Hill: the latest look at viral marketing, noting that the "explosion in person-to-person communication ... will create enormous opportunities for campaigns but also raises the risk that an unguarded moment will spread at lightning speed to sink a candidacy, political consultants say."

Just when talk about Marc Rich was dying down… The Boston Globe reports that Hillary Clinton's brother, Tony Rodham, "is battling an order to repay more than $100,000 he received from a couple pardoned by President Clinton." A judge has ordered Rodham to respond by March 16 to allegations that he failed to repay that money as he was ordered to do so. "Clinton critics have been seeking to revive an array of controversies, from the Whitewater land deal to the Monica Lewinsky case. The Clinton campaign has sought to depict them as old or moot cases. But the Tony Rodham case could be different because it is in court just as Senator Clinton's campaign reaches full speed." 

The Globe also lists the money both of Clinton's brothers received from people who received pardons by President Clinton. 

The Wall Street Journal looks at Clinton's energy plan rollout: "'The more energy self-sufficient we become, the more we can stop spending billions of dollars and sending them to unstable regimes all over the world, some of whom are even financing terrorism against us,'" she said. The centerpiece of her energy effort: "a Strategic Energy Fund to advance new technologies. The money — $50 billion over 10 years — would be extracted from the oil industry by ending tax breaks, imposing a two-year windfall profits 'fee' and collecting all the royalties owed for drilling on federal lands. Oil companies could make up for the fee by investing in ethanol, wind and other alternative energy sources."

As rival Obama attempts to quit smoking, Clinton -- along with possible presidential candidate Chuck Hagel -- reintroduced a resolution yesterday calling on Bush to declare lung cancer a national public health priority. And, per the New York Daily News, the latest Washington Post/ABC poll finds that Obama better stick with his Nicorette. "The poll shows voters don't care if you are black or a woman, but a smoker? No, thanks… Only 6% would be less inclined to vote for a black candidate (and 7% would be more inclined), but one in five says he won't pull the lever for a smoker." 

Roll Call looks at the carefully neutral role Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is trying to stake out in his party's primary.

Joe Biden spoke out about his resolution to repeal the 2002 authorization of the Iraq war. "'It's not likely I have 60 votes to prevent a filibuster, but it is likely that if I continue to push, each time I push there's less and less support for this war in Iraq,' Biden said in a phone interview on his way to New Hampshire, where he planned two days of campaigning for the Democratic presidential nomination," the Manchester Union Leader says. 

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson has been advocating that presidential candidates promise to run positive campaigns, and per the AP he "plans to turn his proposal into a formal DNC resolution for the party's next meeting."

And former presidential contender and Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, who quit the race last fall, isn't ruling out a rematch against GOP Sen. John Warner, the Washington Post reports.

He's leading in many of the polls there, but Rudy Giuliani has yet to step foot in Iowa to campaign. But that's about to change, the Des Moines Register says. Giuliani has hired his first Iowa staffer and plans a visit to the state in the coming weeks. 

Newt Gingrich, who may or may not get into the presidential race, participates in a discussion on the upcoming election with former New York Gov. Mario Cuomo and NBC's Tim Russert at Cooper Union in New York. Gingrich will "encourage today's presidential candidates to spurn sound bites for serious discussion and debate... In an interview, Mr. Gingrich, who has said he will decide later this year whether he'll run in 2008, said his goal was to 'reinvigorate the idea of policy discussions as part of the political process.' He challenged the presidential candidates to agree in advance to nine weekly 90-minute debates after the nominations, each on a single topic."

Per his campaign, John McCain tonight attends the Irish-American Republicans 10th Annual Awards Reception in New York City, where he will be an honoree. He also will appear on the David Letterman Show tonight.

A day before departing for New Orleans the Gulf Coast, President Bush meets this afternoon with military service organizations in the White House.

The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation offers a "very preliminary" estimate that "Bush's plan to revamp the health-care system would increase taxes on Americans by $526.2 billion over the next decade."

Timed to his expected testimony on the Hill today, the Los Angeles Times reports that "Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff has waged a clandestine charm offensive on behalf of an immigration overhaul. He consulted with supportive lawmakers, listened to adversarial congressmen and slipped into the private offices of wary senators." More: "An immigration overhaul is one area where President Bush's agenda closely matches that of the Democratic leadership." But they're "contending with a tight schedule and volatile politics." 

The US Supreme Court today will consider a challenge to regional conferences that promoted Bush's faith-based initiatives. "The legal question is not whether those conferences violated the constitutional separation of church and state, but more fundamentally when a taxpayer may even get into court to challenge such mingling of government and religion... Twelve states, backing the Bush administration, are trying to block the lawsuit. On the other side are atheists and religious organizations such as the American Jewish Congress and the Baptist Joint Committee for Religious Liberty." 

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi
The return of Congress means we're back to Iraq, with Democratic lawmakers in both chambers wrestling over whether and how to curtail President Bush's authority in pursuing military action there.  Some Senate Democrats want to repeal the 2002 war resolution and replace it with one that's narrower in scope; some House Democrats want to tie funding for the war to troop readiness.  A suicide bomber's attempted attack on Vice President Cheney earlier today also will direct Washington's attention to the situation in Afghanistan.

In the House, NBC's Mike Viqueira advises, Iraq is percolating mainly behind the scenes while members focus publicly this week on matters of concern to business and labor.  The House will consider reforming the way the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States -- remember the Dubai Ports World controversy? -- conducts it reviews, and also a hotly contested bill that would facilitate union organizing.  The war, by contrast, is causing more private hemming and hawing and Democrats ponder what to do about Rep. John Murtha's proposal to tie Bush's $100 billion supplemental funding request to US troop readiness. 

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is standing behind some of Murtha's proposals, Viq notes, including having troops stay home for at least a year between deployments and limiting their time in Iraq to a year.  Murtha asserts that these measures would effectively end Bush's troop increase. 

House Republicans have greeted the Murtha proposal as a political gift, Viq says.  Many credit its arguably premature debut -- Murtha announced it on a liberal website -- as a galvanizing force that kept the number of GOP defections on the resolution denouncing a troop increase to a mere 17, after predictions had run as high as 50 or 60.  They characterize it as a "slow-bleed" strategy that would deny much-needed reinforcements to beleaguered troops in the thick of combat.  Democrats argue that the proposal does just the opposite, ensuring that the troops will receive the training and materiel necessary to maintain maximum force protection.  The coming debate will be a struggle by each side to define the plan.

The supplemental is due out of committee in two weeks and expected to hit the floor sometime later in March.  House Democrats essentially face a choice of whether or not to push ahead with Murtha's plan, despite the significant chance that it might tear apart their caucus and wouldn't even pass, Viq explains.  If they push ahead, they might be able to demonstrate to those within their ranks that the votes for passage simply aren't there.  But would it be worth it? 

Democratic leaders have talked of an incremental, step-by-step approach to opposing Bush on the war, an approach that emphasizes consensus.  Ramming the Murtha plan through over the objections of moderate Democrats would amount to abandoning that strategy, and for what?  Senate Democrats appear unwilling to entertain Murtha's plan.  In the end, if you're Pelosi, you don't put something on the floor that you know is going to go down in defeat.  So they simply have to decide if they can muscle the plan through.  And if they can, is it worth it?  As Viq says, you don't ask your people to take a tough vote when you know it's all going to be for naught.

In the Senate, Democratic leaders are undertaking a more public effort to muster support among their own ranks, as well as from some Republicans, for binding legislation that would repeal the 2002 war authorization.  Senate Foreign Relations chair Joe Biden and Armed Services chair Carl Levin are spearheading the effort that would limit US troop involvement and redeploy most combat forces by March 2008.  NBC's Ken Strickland reports that while it's unclear when the measure would come up for a vote, it's almost certain -- at this point, at least -- that Democrats won't meet the 60-vote threshold to overcome GOP opposition.

There could be some action on it as early as this week, attached to homeland security legislation now on the floor.  But after coming off a week-long recess, Strick advises, both sides want to strategize within their own caucuses to assess how and when to move forward.  Those caucus meetings take place this afternoon. 

And in Chicago today, Mayor Richard M. Daley seems poised to win a sixth term, putting him on track to break his father's record of length of service, provided he's still in the office in 2010.

The New York Times says that the suicide bombing outside the US military base in Afghanistan "killed and wounded American soldiers and Afghan and Pakistani truck drivers and laborers waiting for access at the gate.  The incident was at the first security gate of the base, far from where Mr. Cheney was staying."  More: "Mr. Cheney's trip to the region had been shrouded in unusual secrecy…  This appeared to reflect growing concern about the strength of Al Qaeda and Taliban forces in the region." 

President Bush today takes part in the swearing-in of his new Deputy Secretary of State, John Negroponte.  Iraq and the war on terror will surface in several other venues in the Senate this week, Strick advises.  Today, Iraq war costs and troop funding will likely come up when Condoleezza Rice and Robert Gates testify about Bush's emergency funding request.  And there will more talk about war costs on Thursday, when the Budget Committee hears from Pentagon officials about their annual funding request.  The war in Afghanistan also goes under the microscope on Thursday when the Armed Services panel hears from mid-level military types.

A group of Senate Democrats and the head of the party's governors' association hold a press conference to call for changes in Bush's war policy to protect the National Guard.

And Sen. Joe Biden holds a town hall on Iraq at Dartmouth tonight, which his campaign bills as the first of many he'll be holding throughout the country.  He previews his visit with a Boston Globe op-ed calling for a new Iraq war resolution. 

Roll Call notes that today's caucus meeting will mark the first time that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid "will be able to meet with his rank-and-file membership to discuss the" proposed 2002 war resolution repeal "following the surprise announcement of the reauthorization strategy more than a week ago." 

A new Washington Post/ABC poll shows that "a majority of Americans" -- 53% -- "now support setting a deadline for withdrawing U.S. forces from the war-torn nation," while 58% "support putting new conditions on the military that could limit the number of personnel available for duty there…  The poll also registered a new low on the question of whether the Iraq war was worth fighting.  Thirty-four percent responded that it was, while 64 percent said it was not -- 51 percent strongly."  Bush's job approval rating is 36%. 

The Wall Street Journal puts Democratic lawmakers' dilemma this way: "Can Congress continue to fault U.S. policy from a distance, or must lawmakers take hold of it and risk owning the outcome?...  In the wake of their election losses in November, Republicans have their own divisions over the president's policy.  But Democrats face greater pressure, and the debate exposes internal politics and warring personalities, especially in the House." 

Add Rudy Giuliani to the list of Republican presidential candidates speaking at the Conservative Political Action Committee's annual conference next week.  Also speaking: former Gov. Mitt Romney, former Gov. Mike Huckabee, and Sen. Sam Brownback, along with Vice President Cheney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.

And add Romney to the list of Republican contenders whose campaign playbook appears to have leaked to the press.  First a New York tabloid got hold of Giuliani's.  Now the Boston Globe has gotten its hands on a 77-slide PowerPoint presentation that "offers a revealing look at Romney's pursuit of the White House, outlining a plan for branding himself, framing his competitors, and allaying voter concerns about his record, his Mormon faith, and his shifts on key issues like abortion."  The document "is wide-ranging and analyzes in detail the strengths and weaknesses of Romney and his two main Republican rivals," McCain and Giuliani.  "The plan… charts a course for Romney to emerge as the nominee, but acknowledges that the 'electorate is not where it needs to be for us to succeed.'"  A Romney spokesman calls it "'a compilation of political conventional wisdom.'" 

More: "The plan… indicates that Romney will define himself in part by focusing on and highlighting enemies and adversaries, such common political targets as 'jihadism,' the 'Washington establishment,' and taxes, but also Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, 'European-style socialism,' and, specifically, France.  Even Massachusetts, where Romney has lived for almost 40 years, is listed as one of those 'bogeymen,' alongside liberalism and Hollywood values.  Indeed, a page titled 'Primal Code for Brand Romney' said that Romney should define himself as a foil to" Kennedy, Kerry and Dukakis.

A "leaked" memo by a Romney adviser also made the rounds yesterday, which argued that despite Romney being in third or fourth place in most GOP polls, he's in a better position right now than other governors from relatively small states -- Jimmy Carter, Michael Dukakis, and Bill Clinton -- who went on to win their respective presidential nominations. 

But citing past Democratic performance might not be that revealing for Republicans, given that GOP primary voters in modern times have tended to favor the early frontrunner: Bush in 2000, Dole in 1996, Bush the elder in 1988, and Reagan in 1980.  The last Republican presidential candidate to come out of nowhere was Reagan in 1976, and he still lost.  That said, this current presidential contest is going to last so long that anything can happen.

The AP looks at how Romney is trying to reconcile his past statements and more recent actions, which the AP lists. 

The New York Post reports that Giuliani is attending weekly policy briefings with a team of experts who discuss everything from taxes to Iraq with him.  "Dubbed 'Simon University' by some in Giuliani's camp, the policy team is led by Bill Simon, an associate from Giuliani's Justice Department days and conservative businessman who ran for California governor in 2002."   Others in attendance include speechwriter John Avalon, Hoover Institution fellow Michael Boskin, and former Indianapolis Mayor Stephen Goldsmith. 

During a speech in DC yesterday, Giuliani addressed his past as a Democrat and explained why he became a Republican.  Giuliani "offered one reason for his political conversion - taxes," notes the AP. 

USA Today takes its turn profiling Sen. John McCain as he (sometimes wearily) faces voters' frustrations on the campaign trail about the war he supports.  "In a turn that's nearly Shakespearean, McCain — Bush's chief rival for the Republican nomination in 2000 and a critic since then on everything from tax cuts to torture — finds his fate inextricably tied to the fortunes of his onetime adversary and the increasingly unpopular war he is prosecuting."  The McCain team continues to bill McCain's support for the war as evidence that he's not campaigning according to the polls. 

The Washington Times says McCain "is playing both sides against the middle as he supports sending more than 21,500 additional troops to Iraq while trying to distance himself from President Bush by labeling the war a 'train wreck.'" 

And Bloomberg says that after spending "20 years in the Senate challenging Republican Party orthodoxy," McCain "is having a hard time establishing himself as its champion." 

NBC political analyst Charlie Cook writes in his CongressDaily AM column, "Republicans know that if they run a status quo candidate, and the 2008 race is framed status quo versus change, they will lose.  For Republicans to have a chance, voters have to be given the choice of two variations of change.  That doesn't mean liberal or necessarily even moderate, but certainly someone who will be judged independently of President Bush."

Rep. Duncan Hunter might be in some trouble.  Per the Boston Globe, Hunter used money from his PAC to run a TV ad campaign after he announced he was thinking of running.  "Politicians considering presidential races often have used political action committees to pay for travel to early primary states and build support by contributing money to people running for state or local offices.  But once a candidate forms a presidential he or she is required to use campaign-committee accounts for all money spent running for office." 

Several news organizations -- including NBC's TODAY -- look at how his turn at the Oscars has buffed up Al Gore, if not whetted his appetite, for another run in 2008.  and

Dueling speeches in Selma?  The New York Daily News writes that Sen. Hillary Clinton will also speak in Selma, AL over the weekend to commemorate the infamous 1965 march across the bridge there -- joining Sen. Barack Obama, whose campaign had earlier announced that he would be there.  "The two high-profile speeches - both at 11 a.m. and at virtually adjacent churches in Selma, Ala. - sent officials scrambling to figure out how to accommodate both senators without offending either." 

The Washington Post front-pages failures by Clinton to list a family charity "on annual Senate financial disclosure reports on five occasions…  Clinton's spokesman said her failure to report the existence of the family foundation and the senator's position as an officer was an oversight.  Her office immediately amended her Senate ethics reports to add that information late yesterday after receiving inquiries from" the Post. 

The Boston Globe's Canellos gives Obama plenty of personal, professional and health reasons to quit smoking.  "Obama "recently drew headlines when he described the more than 3,000 Americans killed in Iraq since 2003 as wasted lives. (He subsequently apologized.)  But he should know that about 600,000 Americans have died of lung cancer during the four years of the Iraq war -- almost all of them because of smoking." 

Clinton gives a luncheon address on Capitol Hill to members of the Apollo Alliance, a group that's trying to end the US dependency on foreign oil and invest in clean energy initiatives.  Gov. Bill Richardson addresses the Latino Leaders Luncheon Series in DC, then heads to Florida to address the World Pension Forum.

The Los Angeles Times uses campaign finance data to paint a picture of how California truly has become an ATM for candidates on both sides, and not just at the presidential level. 

In his luncheon speech at the National Press Club yesterday, GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger emphasized bipartisanship while still making it clear that he has not become an Independent, NBC's Lauren Appelbaum reports.  "I am still a proud Republican," he said.  "I support the guiding principles of the Republican Party."  He continued, "Isn't the ultimate principle to serve the people, to do the things that are good for the people?  We are elected as public servants, not party servants."

Schwarzenegger focused on the issues of health care and immigration, calling for mandatory medical insurance for everyone.  And while he recognized that some consider it controversial, he also called for coverage of children of undocumented immigrants: "The fact is that we have no choice about paying the medical bills of people that are here illegally in California...  So the question really is not, should we treat them or not or should we cover them or not, but the real question is do we treat them in an emergency room at three or four times the cost of a doctor's office or health clinic, or do we treat them more efficiently and more cost-effectively?"

On immigration, he recognized the positions of extremes: sending all illegal immigrants back and building a fence, versus giving everyone amnesty, to which he replied: "I have an idea.  What about being realistic and just actually solving the problem?"  His solution?  "Secure our borders while at the same time recognize economic and social reality by providing guest-worker programs and giving everyone citizenship who is already in the country and meet a certain criteria."

The Washington Times: "Mr. Schwarzenegger's proposal, while not original, is part of his carefully crafted message of 'post-partisanship' that appears aimed at a national audience." 

"The mistake people make about [Schwarzenegger] is to assume that he must be at least somewhat embarrassed about his past careers," writes The Politico's Simon.  "They think he must cringe just a little bit when reminded of how he wore tiny Speedos and lifted weights or played Conan the Barbarian in long hair and leather…  In reality, however, Schwarzenegger is completely unabashed about his former professions.  They do not embarrass him in the least." 

The New York Times front-pages that the White House and the governors were at odds yesterday over the future of the popular Children's Health Insurance Program, which states have used to expand health coverage. 

Down one, the jurors in the Libby trial will deliberate for a fourth day today. 

The New York Times speculates why Libby's defense team pushed to proceed with just 11 jurors -- instead of adding the alternate to make it 12 after the juror was dismissed.  "In this case, the replacement juror would have been a middle-aged woman who identified herself as an insurance industry consultant.  Some reporters at the trial observed her taking notes assiduously during the monthlong proceedings." 

From NBC's Carrie Dann
Speaking in Washington today at a luncheon hosted by the conservative Hoover Institute, presidential hopeful Rudy Giuliani delighted his conservative audience, annoyed TV camera crews with his characteristic pacing, and exasperated reporters with a lack of news in his remarks. With the Q&A for audience members only, the press was hoping that one of the guests might pitch him a hardball -- perhaps about his plan for Iraq or his fairly liberal social views. But when the last question turned out to be about incentive pay for teachers, the journalists covering the event let out a collective sigh of disappointment.

One of Giuliani's comments, however, did prompt a flurry of scribbling. When an audience member expressed concern about his lack of foreign policy experience, Giuliani quipped, "What makes you think the mayor of New York City doesn't need a foreign policy?" He added, "It's something that I think I know as well as anybody else who's running for president, and probably better than a lot."

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi.
The nation's governors visit today with President Bush, who may well be the last member of their alumni association to occupy the White House before 2012 or even 2016.  At least as of today, the public's habit of picking presidents with gubernatorial experience seems likely to be broken in 2008.  None of the current top contenders for either party's nomination -- three senators and a mayor -- has held that job. 

When he quit the race last Friday, Democrat Tom Vilsack became the third former governor to do so, after Sen. Evan Bayh and Mark Warner, the former governors of Indiana and Virginia.  All three had counted on running on their credentials as centrist Democratic executives of red or swing states.  Former New York Gov. George Pataki (R), after never quite getting in the race, now seems to be all but out of it.

Four remaining 2008 contenders are, or were governors: sitting Gov. Bill Richardson (D) of New Mexico and Republican former Govs. Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, and Tommy Thompson of Arkansas, Massachusetts, and Wisconsin, respectively.  Of the four, only Romney today seems poised to break into the top tier of candidates.  But his adopted home state, and the moderate positions on social issues which he had to take in order to run for office there, are proving to be a political albatross for him as he tries to convince conservatives to support his candidacy. 

One reason why the governors in the field are struggling for traction is because they're having trouble making their voices heard in the biggest ongoing argument in American politics.  The Iraq war debate is centered in Washington, a battle royale between the Bush Administration and congressional lawmakers that is providing a platform for the senators in the race.  Democrats Joe Biden and Chris Dodd might be lagging far behind their colleagues Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in the polls, but their ability to play a role in the Iraq debate guarantees them Sunday-show appearances, audiences among the netroots, and (at least in theory) the chance to cast votes. 

The former governors in the race -- even Richardson, despite his attempts to flex his UN Ambassador muscles -- are on the sidelines.  Until he dropped out, Vilsack's team regularly sought to remind reporters that he was the first presidential candidate to call for cutting off funding for the war.

Ultimately, though, no senator has gotten directly elected to the White House since 1960.  Sen. John Kerry's candidacy demonstrated how candidates with long records on Capitol Hill can get bogged down in Washington speak and in defending their votes.  Although all the heat and light in the race is on the frontrunners, the Iowa caucuses are still more than 10 months away.  But the financial demands of this long slog being what they are, the question is whether, by the time the public really starts attention to the campaign, any governors will be left in the field.

Congress return from recess tomorrow and Democrats in both chambers will start looking in earnest for ways to limit President Bush's authority in Iraq through various legislative vehicles, either by repealing the 2002 war resolution and replacing it with a narrower version, or by tying Bush's authority to troop readiness, though that effort is losing steam.  NBC's Ken Strickland reports that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters on Friday that such efforts amount to "trying to un-ring a bell."  As with the earlier debate over a troop increase in the Senate, McConnell says he'll use the rules to require Democrats to muster 60 votes before they can act on their bill to repeal to 2002 resolution (which is procedural code for "filibuster").

Later this week, the Conservative Political Action Committee holds its annual conference, which will be a draw for those GOP presidential candidates make a big play for conservative votes, including Romney, Huckabee, and Sen. Sam Brownback, along with Vice President Cheney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.  Bush will visit the Gulf Coast on Thursday after his wife stopped there last week. 

 

Vice President Cheney made unannounced stops in Pakistan and Afghanistan this morning.  The pool reporter notes that Cheney "looks pretty chipper, near the end of a week-long odyssey."  The New York Times front-pages that the White House is warning Pakistan's prime minister that the Democratic-controlled Congress could cut off funding to his country unless he becomes more aggressive in hunting down al Qaeda operatives. 

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice yesterday on ABC called Hill Democrats' efforts to narrow Bush's authority in Iraq "'the worst of micromanagement' that would intrude on the president's power as commander in chief to manage the war." 

Conservative columnist Bob Novak writes that very few Republican senators -- even those like Norm Coleman and Chuck Hagel, who backed the non-binding resolution opposing Bush's troop increase -- are now behind the move to repeal the 2002 war authorization.  "If Hagel is lost, Democrats might fall short of the 50 senators necessary for passage, much less the 60 senators necessary to close off debate.  Bush may be an unpopular president fighting an unpopular war, but Democrats are finding it hard to make war policy from Capitol Hill." 

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I), who recently suggested that the course of the Iraq war funding debate might prompt him to switch to the GOP, writes in a Wall Street Journal op-ed that Congress "faces a choice in the weeks and months ahead.  Will we allow our actions to be driven by the changing conditions on the ground in Iraq -- or by the unchanging political and ideological positions long ago staked out in Washington?"  He concludes, "Instead of undermining Gen. Petraeus before he has been in Iraq for even a month, let us give him and his troops the time and support they need to succeed." 

Although they're on opposite ends of the debate over a troop increase, GOP Sen. John Warner will endorse Sen. John McCain for president today, McCain's campaign just announced.  Roll Call reports, "In a brief interview, Warner, a former Armed Services chairman and one-time secretary of the Navy, cited his long personal history with McCain - as well as the importance of national security issues in the 2008 campaign - as the chief factors that led to his endorsement."  McCain "was released from captivity in 1973 while Warner was serving as Navy Secretary." 

Borrowing a straight-talk page from McCain, sort of, former Sen. John Edwards (D) said on CBS yesterday that there's no way to predict how a US troop withdrawal would affect the situation in Iraq and Iraqis.  "I have, I guess, enough faith in our people to think they can accept the truth."  McCain said in Iowa last week that he's not sure what would happen next if the troop increase doesn't work.

In a front-page article, the New York Times notes that although Sen. Barack Obama (D) was against the Iraq war in 2002, his plan to end it isn't all that different from his chief rivals for the nomination.  "Iraq remains a defining topic in the opening stages of the 2008 presidential race, but it may prove easier for Mr. Obama, Democrat of Illinois, to revisit the past than to distinguish his views in the future." 

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) repeated his call for a troop withdrawal and voiced support for a timetable yesterday.  The Los Angeles Times notes, "Schwarzenegger's position on what to do about an unpopular war has been rapidly evolving.  During a trade mission to Mexico in November, the governor espoused more of a stay-the-course approach...  But Schwarzenegger conceded Sunday that as someone who is still comparatively new to politics, he is apt to make mistakes." 

Angelina Jolie has been nominated to join the highbrow Council on Foreign Relations.  The CFR, whose members include Henry Kissinger and Alan Greenspan, "decided on Friday to accept the 32-year-old to be considered for a special five-year term designed to 'nurture the next generation of foreign policy makers.'" 

The AP follows up on the New York Daily News report that the Rev. Al Sharpton, who occasionally still threatens to run for president, is descended from a slave who was once owned by the family of the late GOP Sen. Strom Thurmond. 

Al Gore passed on repeated invitations to announce another run for president at the Oscars last night.  "My fellow Americans," he said to laughter in the audience, "people all over the world, we need to solve the climate crisis.  It's not a political issue, it's a moral issue.  We have everything we need to get started, with the possible exception of the will to act, that's a renewable resource.  Let's renew it."

The Des Moines Register ran a slew of stories over the weekend about Vilsack's withdrawal from the race -- one about his bid farewell, one about reaction from his supporters and one about the reasons why he dropped out.

The Des Moines Register concludes that "Vilsack's decision Friday to quit the race shifts much of the burden of expectations in the caucuses to Edwards, the front-runner in early Iowa polls."  His "success at recapturing the Iowa momentum that vaulted him to contention in 2004 depends on Iowans' willingness to accept" changes in his positions on Iraq and on universal health care "and embrace Edwards, once the fresh face in the field, as a familiar face." 

At a Concord, NH event on Saturday, Edwards "talked only about health care... then took questions from the crowd," says one party activist who was present.  "He spoke with more gravitas and knowledge than he did four years ago...  He did say that those who became US citizens should learn English...  He also spoke against incrementalism, saying that bold steps are needed to solve the nation's problems."

The Washington Times has a story asserting that the Clinton-Obama feud could hurt the party's 2008 prospects in the long run. 

The Sunday Washington Post looked at the Clinton campaign's efforts to render her husband's impeachment a taboo subject, based on how they pounced on David Geffen's comments last week, but the paper also surmised how Clinton can't really campaign on the positive aspects of her husband's presidency without the negative aspects also being brought up. 

New York Times liberal columnist Bob Herbert has some unflattering words about Clinton: "It's ironic that the first woman with a real shot at the presidency comes off not as a compelling underdog but as the powerful front-runner at the controls of a ruthless political machine." 

The Boston Globe looks at the ties between the name Clinton has gone by -- whether or not she's used her maiden name Rodham -- and her various roles in her political career. 

Roll Call's Stuart Rothenberg disputes the argument of some African-American political insiders that Obama can't win the presidency because he's black. 

The Sunday Los Angeles Times looks at the hope-versus-experience question and how other Democratic candidates looking for their footing vis-à-vis Obama are trying to cast their experience as a virtue. 

Today, Clinton has energy events around New York state.  Obama has a rally at a community college in Cleveland.  Edwards campaigns in New Jersey.  Richardson, in Washington for the governors' meeting, gets together with Schwarzenegger and some other Western governors to sign a pact to fight climate change.

The New York Daily News notes that Rudy Giuliani and McCain plan to skip an upcoming debate in New Hampshire in early April.  "McCain is expected to be in the Middle East on April 4 and Giuliani has an unspecified scheduling conflict, sources said."  The first GOP presidential primary debate including the two frontrunners will take place at the Reagan presidential library in California on May 3, brought to you by MSNBC and The Politico. 

USA Today, covering GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel's criticisms of the Administration on Iraq, has Hagel saying in an interview "that if he ran" for president, "he would seek the Republican nomination.  Yet he's also talking up Unity08," which is "a plan by a bipartisan group of political operatives to draft a bipartisan presidential ticket on the Internet and offer voters an alternative to the Democratic and Republican candidates next year." 

Per The State, McCain is leading his GOP rivals in polls in South Carolina, but his numbers lag behind what he had in 2000.  Since he has "almost universal name identification among S.C. Republican primary voters," it may be "more difficult to find voters who haven't formed an opinion of him." 

Romney "condemns" polygamy, the AP notes, but his "great-grandfather had five wives and at least one of his great-great grandfathers had 12.  Polygamy was not just a historical footnote, but a prominent element in the family tree of the former Massachusetts governor now seeking to become the first Mormon president."  The story notes Romney's efforts to downplay this part of his history: "An introductory film played at his fundraisers and campaign appearances features his wife, Ann, talking about their 37-year marriage.  Romney himself notes they started as high school sweethearts." 

Rep. Ron Paul (R) was in New Hampshire over the weekend, where the Manchester Union Leader said he "found himself treated like a rock star" at some of his events.

Giuliani campaigns in Virginia and gives a speech in DC.  The latest in the stream of Republican candidates who are campaigning on (read: against) abortion in South Carolina is Brownback, who will visits a pregnancy center and make other stops in the state today.  The Politico looks at how, "[t]o many on the right, the top three candidates are failing it because they're faking it...  Many conservatives consider [McCain] a less-than-passionate abortion foe, [Romney] a flip-flopper and [Giuliani] as downright hostile to the pro-life movement." 

The AP uses the governors' gathering to look at the presidential candidates' efforts to win their support. 

The San Francisco Chronicle previews Schwarzenegger's speech today at the National Press Club, in which he's expected to continue talking about moving away from partisanship.  "'I'm going to talk about how important it is to work together, which doesn't mean that you have to sell out your principles,' Schwarzenegger said Sunday on CBS' 'Face the Nation.'  'It just means that you ultimately want to serve the people rather than your party, because I think the elected officials are public servants and not party servants.'" 

USA Today's former White House correspondent looks at the paper's latest Gallup polling and finds more Republicans standing by Bush than you might think based upon the news.  As he writes, "despite bad news from Baghdad and carefully crafted hand-wringing by high-profile GOP war critics in Congress such as [Hagel], three of four Republicans in the country are hanging in there with the president...  The poll also shows that rank-and-file Republicans have higher regard for the president than they do Republicans in Congress...  And 72% of Republicans do not think Bush made a mistake sending U.S. troops to Iraq.  So if congressional Republicans figure the key to re-election in 2008 is taking a hard line against Bush on Iraq,... [t]hey might lure some independents, but they risk alienating their GOP base." 

"Lawmakers have continued to take trips paid for by outside groups since the House voted last month to restrict who can pay for such travel," USA Today reports.  "House travel records show that 19 members since Jan. 5 have accepted airfare, meals and lodging from special interests, including groups that employ lobbyists.  The records were compiled by the non-partisan PoliticalMoneyLine." 

From NBC's Huma Zaidi and Lauren Appelbaum
In a conference call with reporters this afternoon, a somber Tom Vilsack (D) reiterated much of what he said in a news conference earlier today, which is that he's dropping out of the race because his campaign could simply not raise enough money to be competitive. "It is ultimately about money," Vilsack said while lamenting that he'd wished the race was more focused on the issues he cares most about, like Iraq and energy. While the former Iowa governor said he's confident that his campaign would have done well in his home state and New Hampshire, Vilsack added that a frontloaded primary calendar would complicate his fundraising efforts. "The premium on money became even more compelling," he said.
 
Vilsack said he does not have any plans on endorsing any candidate soon or and said he's not even thinking about whether he would accept an offer to be a vice presidential nominee. Vilsack said today he is thinking about his family, his staff and supporters who have devoted so much time into his presidential campaign.

 

From NBC's Mark Murray and Elizabeth Wilner
NBC News has learned that former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) is dropping out of the presidential race. This announcement, which Vilsack will make outside his campaign headquarters at noon ET, comes as quite a surprise given that he was heading to campaign in New Hampshire on Monday and Tuesday

Vilsack, the first major Democrat to announce that he was running for president in 2008, made his decision after realizing he wouldn't have the money to compete against the likes of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. "This comes down to money," says a Democratic source close the campaign, noting that Vilsack had -- by far -- the strongest organization in Iowa, the site of the first Democratic nominating contest.

Vilsack, of course, isn't the first high-profile Democrat to announce he's not running. Former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner and Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh also decided -- to the surprise of many -- that they would not run. Interestingly, all three of these Democrats are similar: They are considered centrists who hail from red states.

Vilsack's decision also removes from the field someone who had been tacking to the left on the Iraq war. He opposed Bush's troop increase and wanted Congress to block funding for it. He also encouraged state legislatures to denounce Bush's plan, as he did during his farewell speech as governor. "I want to challenge every single one of you and ask a simple question," Vilsack said at this week's Democratic forum in Nevada. "What have you done today to end this war in Iraq? It needs to be ended now; not six days from now, not six months from now, not six years from now, it needs to be ended now and it's up to you."

It's worth noting that the other high-profile Democrats still in the field -- Clinton, Obama, Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, and even Bill Richardson -- all hail from Washington, or at least have strong ties to it. And these people all seem to have better platforms to air their positions on the war, given more opportunities to appear on the Sunday morning shows or to speak from the Senate floor.

From NBC's Chris Donovan
Former Vice President Al Gore might be walking the red carpet come Oscar night on Sunday, but if "An Inconvenient Truth" wins the Oscar for best Documentary Feature, Gore won't be taking home an Oscar statuette. The Academy told NBC News recently that Davis Guggenheim, the film's director/executive producer, is the only person eligible to win an Oscar, something all the parties involved sign off on when the forms are submitted. So let's hope Gore doesn't want it as much as President Bill Clinton pretended he did in 2000 in that video spoof he made for the White House Correspondents' Dinner, in which he was holding an Oscar and giving an acceptance speech to the mirror before Kevin Spacey came in and took his award back.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Huma Zaidi
Have things finally calmed down? The candidates at the center of this week's political brouhaha, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, appear today in two different liberal strongholds. Clinton headlines a "Make History With Hillary" luncheon fundraiser in San Francisco, which is open to the press. Meanwhile, Obama holds a rally this afternoon in Austin, TX, for which 16,000 tickets had been requested online as of midweek, the Austin American-Statesman reports. Per Obama's campaign, his remarks will focus on Iraq, especially Britain's announcement that it will begin withdrawing some of its troops there.

Obama has tried to reclaim the high ground after the tussle over David Geffen's less-than-flattering comments regarding the Clintons. NBC's Carrie Dann says that on an unscheduled stop en route to Houston yesterday, Obama told reporters in St. Louis that "pundits in Washington" are responsible for fueling the entire controversy, adding: "This should be a campaign about the issues and not about personalities or what supporters say." He also said this about Clinton: "She and I have a good relationship, and I expect that will continue." And Obama told today's New York Times he had not been aware that his staff released a counterpunch against the Clinton camp. "I told my staff that I don't want us to be a party to these kinds of distractions because I want to make sure that we're spending time talking about issues," he said. "My preference going forward is that we have to be careful not to slip into playing the game as it customarily is played."

His battle for the high ground continues. The Federal Election Commission yesterday published a draft advisory opinion that would permit (with a few strings attached) Obama to solicit and receive unlimited contributions in the general election and still remain eligible for public funding. So far, the front-runners from both parties, including Clinton and Obama, have indicated that they will bypass public funds for the primaries and the general election, which will enable them to spend as much as they can raise for these contests. But as a way to bolster his good-government credentials, Obama has proposed that he could still remain eligible for public financing in the general election -- as long as he refunds those contributions and as long as the GOP nominee does the same. If anything, the FEC's draft advisory is nice timing for Obama, given the Clinton campaign's effort to knock him off his high horse.

Like Clinton, John McCain will be on the West Coast, speaking this afternoon in Seattle on international affairs at an event sponsored by the nonpartisan World Affairs Council. McCain's remarks will last about 15 minutes, and they will be followed by a Q&A session and then a brief press conference. Interestingly, one of the co-presenters of the McCain speech -- along with several other organizations -- is the Discovery Institute, the nation's primary advocate for intelligent design.

(For those keeping track, McCain supports the idea of intelligent design being taught alongside evolution. "I'm saying, look, here's an opposing point of view," he told Charlie Rose in October 2005. "Can't people be entitled to hear opposing points of views? And if scientists say that that's worthless, fine. That's their opinion. And they may be right. But why can't people who fundamentally believe in their hearts in creation at least have that view exposed?")

In other news, Senate Democrats are cobbling a measure that would revoke Bush's 2002 Iraq war authorization. And will a verdict be reached today in the Libby trial? NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that the jury returns this morning after deliberating seven hours yesterday and approximately 4.5 hours on Wednesday.