From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Obama campaign took some subtle shots at Clinton in its response to her outraising Obama this quarter $22 million to $19 million in primary money:

"More than 350,000 Americans have already signaled the kind of change they want in Washington by contributing to the Obama campaign," Obama spokesman Bill Burton writes in an e-mail. "We have raised a historic $74.9 million in dollars available for primary spending, without transferring one cent from any other campaign fund and with no money from federal lobbyists or PACs."

Clinton transferred $10 million from her Senate campaign to her presidential campaign, but that number doesn't have anything to do with third-quarter money.

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
*** Here comes the judgment: So just how courageous was Obama when in '02, he gave what is now his famous anti-war speech? Was he truly a visionary? AP's Ron Fournier explores that question today and notes some less than convincing evidence that Obama was as passionate against the war as he sounded in '02 (and will sound today in a speech in Chicago, marking the fifth anniversary of that speech). The fact is Obama wasn't taking that much of a political risk as being anti-Iraq war wasn't politically going to be a major problem for him in that '04 senate race. Obama will also sign on to the bipartisan plan whose goal is to eliminate nuclear weapons. This appears to be a slight evolution on the nuke issue. In April, he still talked about the importance of nuclear deterrence. The campaign would argue that this speech is simply adding more detail to his nuclear policy.
 
*** A third way: What do social conservatives want from Giuliani? What's the pound of flesh these folks threatening a third party want to exact from Rudy? Is it the running mate? Is it simply a good 'ol fashioned sit down? Giuliani's camp pushed back hard on this notion that he's not conservative even having one supporter argue to the CBN that if Giuliani were in Congress, his abortion positions on parental notification and third-trimester procedures would make him more a part of the pro-life caucus than the pro-choice caucus. There's good news for Giuliani is this latest dust up with the right: it's proof that the Christian conservatives aren't happy with the current slate of Giuliani alternatives actually running for the GOP nod. Notice what these folks aren't threatening to unify around Romney or Thompson or Huckabee.
 
***

Putting the fun in fundraising: Is there a new "Mendoza line" of sorts for fundraising this 3rd quarter? Longtime baseball fans know what the Mendoza line is (we won't explain here) but what we mean here is that there may be a "Ron Paul line": those candidates who couldn't outraise Paul this quarter (he apparently took in approx. $2.4 million) ought to do some soul searching? So who couldn't outraise Paul this quarter? Dodd, Biden? Huckabee? Every other GOPer not in the top four? Speaking of Huckabee, his campaign yesterday sent out a release touting all the polls and pundits who are touting him as a dark-horse candidate for the nomination. What we haven't seen from the campaign? A fundraising release.
 
*** Clinton outraises Obama: Finally, the last BIG finance number we waited for: Clinton's. She raised $22 million to Obama's $19 million in primary money. (Don't be fooled by the overall $27 million figure the campaign is touting.) The third quarter was a bit rocky on the fundraising front of Camp Clinton thanks to Norman Hsu (and the numbers don't include the amount they gave back in Hsu money). But the news is is significant because it's the first time Clinton's outraised Obama this year, adding an exclamation point to what was a great 3rdQ for Clinton overall.

VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd on who's beating who in the campaign donations race.
 
*** The pox is growing: A new Washington Post/ABC poll confirms the recent trend that the public is not only upset with President Bush but the Democratic Congress as well. So which of the presidential candidates is going to most effectively sell an anti-Washington message. Clearly the country is angry at Washington and that anger is bipartisan. Does this environment provide the opening of a third party? Does one of the so-called outsider candidates (Edwards, Richardson, Romney or Giuliani) effectively tap into this anger? Will the candidates whose first names are "Senator" be hurt a bit by this growing anti-Washington sentiment? Can Obama or Clinton or McCain or Thompson sell change when they are constantly referred to as "senator" in the debates? There's an opportunity in this anti-Washington anger, the question is whether there's a current candidate who can authentically tap into it.
 
***

Brief brain teasers: Ever since Edwards got his rave reviews after the last Democratic debate, the campaign has done nothing but dealt with bad news: whether it was a front-page Des Moines Register piece on his sub-prime mortgage connections to the decision to take matching funds to the changing of media consultants, nothing seems smooth in Raleigh right now. Meanwhile, Fred Thompson had to backtrack a bit from yet another campaign trail statement. This one: on Iraq and WMDs. Early in the day yesterday, Thompson said it was a fact that Iraq had WMDs in '03. He later said he was referring to the chemical weapons Iraq had when they gassed the Kurds. Will it be news in a few weeks when Thompson does an early state trip and he doesn't have to clarify something?
 
On the trail: Obama delivers foreign policy speeches to commemorate the five-year anniversary of his anti-war speech in Chicago, Des Moines and Coralville, Iowa. Obama's campaign also hosts a faith forum in South Carolina; Thompson meets with the editorial board of the Des Moines Register, then makes three more stops in Iowa; Clinton campaigns in Los Angeles, Tuscon and DC; Giuliani campaigns in New York; McCain addresses the Blue Ridge Electric Co-Op PAC at the group's dinner; Richardson holds a meet and greet in Boulder, CO and then raises money in Nevada; Romney campaigns in Massachusetts; and Ben Romney campaigns in Georgia for his father.
 
Countdown to LA GOV election: 18 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 35 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 46 days
Countdown to Iowa: 104 days (or is it 94 days or 96 days or...)
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 109 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 126 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 399 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 476 days

Since the McCain campaign is pushing back against a Politico piece indicating their Q3 totals at $5 million this quarter, expect those numbers to be a bit higher.
 
Some big-picture stories emerging:
Politico's Cummings writes on the GOP fundraising reports and notes, "There were hopes that third quarter presidential fundraising figures would clarify the state of the Republican Party's primary race. If anything, they've made it harder to unravel."
 
The Washington Post notes that on the Dem side, the fundraising reports indicate: "Obama's totals and predictions from Clinton aides show that the race for the Democratic nomination remains a distinctly two-tiered contest."

The former speaker has an op-ed in Human Events this week explaining his decision not to run: "Some have asked why couldn't I have explored the possibility of running and remain the Chairman of American Solutions. The fact is, because of the current, misguided and destructive campaign finance laws, as well as the willingness of some to make misguided allegations without knowing all the facts, if I had decided to explore being a candidate, it would have become necessary to sever my relationship with American Solutions to protect it from false allegations of being used as a devise to promote the feasibility of my candidacy, which is not permissible under the law."
 

"... But the law is the law whether I agree with it or not.  With the success of American Solutions and the recognition that it will be a viable enterprise going forward, it became clear Saturday that I could not under the McCain-Feingold censorship law, the current law governing campaign finance, participate in leading American Solutions while exploring a candidacy because quite simply, under McCain Feingold, it would have been illegal.  Moreover, I would have put American Solutions at risk for politically motivated attacks and endless investigations not based upon facts but based upon the desired political outcomes of those who seek to protect the status quo from citizen activists who desire real change.
 
"The whole purpose of a presidential race for me would be to bring new solutions and new ideas into the political arena.
 
"But under McCain-Feingold, I had to choose between being creative and being a candidate.  I could raise money or raise ideas, but not both. ...
 
"A Final Note on McCain-Feingold. You've heard me say it before:  The McCain Feingold censorship law should be repealed. It has actually made politics more focused on money....
 
"This cycle's presidential campaign is a year longer than it should be because of the terrible burdens on fund raising created by McCain Feingold."

BIDEN: The Washington Post's E.J. Dionne writes, "There seems to be far more interest in how fundraising is going for Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards." BUT "The vote on Biden's proposal to devolve power to Iraq's regions and three major groups could turn out to be a milestone in the effort to end the war. It was also a reflection of how much Republican frustration there is with the Iraqi government and the direction of President Bush's policy."
 
CLINTON: Her $5,000 "baby bonds" proposal may have given fodder to Republicans. "The baby bonds proposal is one of the few mistakes Hillary Clinton has made in her campaign," said University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato per the New York Times. 'Should Clinton become the Democratic nominee, she may have handed a powerful issue to the Republican candidate." 
 
The Chicago Tribune's -- albeit conservative -- editorial page was not kind either: "Vote for me, a candidate might say, and I'll cut taxes or boost school spending or protect your embattled industry from foreign competition. But Hillary Clinton is taking a more direct approach to parents. Vote for me, she said the other day, and I might just give you $5,000. The proposition, of course, was not so direct as to constitute a bribe, but it proved that in the realm of audacity, Barack Obama has some serious competition." 
 
The campaign continues to do well with support from longtime African-American political leaders. Yesterday, the campaign nabbed the endorsement of Oakland Mayor Ron Dellums.
 

Two weeks ago, we had flashbacks to the mid-'90s with O.J. Simpson media stalking and Clinton pushing a health care plan. Last night, those flashbacks went back to '92 with Clinton appearing with a Tsongas. Bill Clinton stumped for Paul Tsongas' widow, Niki Tsongas, who is running in a special Congressional election in Lowell, Mass. 
 
Clinton is co-sponsoring legislation introduced by Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) that prohibits the use of funds for military operations against Iran without explicit Congressional authorization.
 
"Given recent reports about Administration military planning toward Iran and to ensure that Congress plays a proper role in the authorization of any potential military force, today I have added myself as a co-sponsor of a bill introduced by Senator Jim Webb which prohibits the use of funds for military action in Iran without authorization by Congress," Clinton said in a statement released by her Senate office. Clinton noted Iran's expanded influence in Iraq and said that she continues to support a policy of sustained diplomatic engagement with Iran.
 
Interesting timing, considering the attention that her Iran Senate vote got during the NBC debate last week.
 
EDWARDS: All in in New Hampshire and Iowa: The Chicago Tribune writes: "Unable to match Democrat rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in fund-raising, Edwards has placed all his chips on the only bet available to him: a full-scale grass-roots push in the two earliest primary states in hopes that success there will vault him to the nomination.

 
The Washington Post reported and NBC/NJ confirmed Edwards' chief media consultant left the campaign. The Post reported, "Senior strategists Joe Trippi (himself a media consultant by training) and Jonathan Prince will take over the development and production of Edwards's ad campaign."
 
OBAMA: As part of his fifth anniversary anti-war speech, Obama plans to call for the elimination of all nuclear weapons in the world. "Obama will add his voice to a plan endorsed earlier this year by a bipartisan group of former government officials from the cold war era who say the United States must begin building a global consensus to reverse a reliance on nuclear weapons that have become "increasingly hazardous and decreasingly effective."
 
More Obama from a speech excerpt: "In 2009, we will have a window of opportunity to renew our global leadership and bring our nation together," Mr. Obama is planning to say, according to an excerpt of remarks provided by his aides. "If we don't seize that moment, we may not get another."
 
If elected, Mr. Obama plans to say, he will lead a global effort to secure nuclear weapons and material at vulnerable sites within four years. He also will pledge to end production of fissile material for weapons, agree not to build new weapons and remove any remaining nuclear weapons from hair-trigger alert.
 
The plan Obama is signing on to has been endorsed by Sec/States George Shultz and Henry Kissinger and ex-Def. Sec. Bill Perry and potential indie pres. candidate/ex-Ga. Sen. Sam Nunn.
 

But this past April Obama wouldn't go so far as to call for the elimination of nuclear weapons. 
 
The Obama campaign is oddly confident about its standing right now. "I'm not too worried," said David Axelrod, a key Obama strategist. "The roadsides of Iowa and New Hampshire are strewn with the spent political carcasses of September and October front-runners."
 
The image doesn't exactly work. Historically, most dominant front-runners have usually managed to go on and win the party nomination, including those who had to scrape themselves off the pavement after a loss in an early voting state. But there are still plenty of historical reasons not to call the race just yet. Many candidates who seemed to be headed for a cakewalk at this point ended up fighting for their candidacies by the time voters went to the polls.
 
The AP's Ron Fournier continues his look at the candidates and their attempts at controlling their images by focusing on whether Obama is a "courageous leader." Noting Obama's '02 opposition to the Iraq war, Fournier notes: "The truth is that while Obama showed foreign policy savvy and an ability to keenly analyze both sides of an issue in his October 2002 warnings on Iraq, the political upside of his position rivaled any risk. And, once elected to the U.S. Senate two years later, Obama waited months to show national leadership on Iraq."
 
"His latest campaign ad calls Obama's leader with the judgment to oppose the Iraq war before it began.' The words 'courageous leader' are superimposed over video."
 
Courageous or calculating? These are the facts: In 2004, while getting ready for his star-making address to the Democratic National Convention, Obama gave presidential nominee John Kerry and other leading Democrats a pass for backing Bush on Iraq. Noting he was not privy to intelligence reports shown to Kerry and others, Obama told The New York Times, "What would I have done? I don't know." Once elected, Obama didn't force the issue in the Senate."
 
The Quad City Times gives some ink to an allegation that Obama broke his pledge not to campaign in Florida by speaking with reporters in Tampa last weekend. Per the QC Times, "The Tampa Tribune reported that Obama 'hinted' he would seat Florida's delegates anyway if he becomes the party's presumptive nominee. Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor said the statement was misreported. According to Vietor, Obama was asked whether he would seat Florida's delegates if he were the presumptive nominee. Vietor said Obama answered the question by saying he was so far from being the presumptive nominee that to answer the question would be arrogant."

As if the GOP didn't have branding issues when it comes to national security, now the WSJ notes the GOP's problems of holding its title as the party of business. 
 
GIULIANI: The one good news about the third-party threat issued by some Christian conservatives if Giuliani gets the nomination, it continues the trend of making this GOP campaign a referendum on Giuliani's conservatism.
 
Let me give you the harsh reality for social conservatives. Evangelical groups are unified in their opposition to Giuliani but they are split on how best to proceed. There are three choices and they are very simple; stick with the GOP candidate in the General Election no matter what so Hillary Clinton has a chance at being defeated; come up with a third party candidate and put purity ahead of politics or just simply sit on your hands and not vote. Those last two options could very well indeed put a Democrat in the White House.
 
It's important to note that these Evangelical groups are still trying to find a viable candidate out there. They believe there are some alternatives to Rudy. Fred Thompson is definitely still on the table, Huckabee is receiving some support too and Romney is intriguing. All three would probably get General Election support, but what about now when these candidates really need it?
 
The Giuliani campaign aggressively pushed back on the story yesterday regarding whether he was conservative enough.
 
The campaign had one supporter, Texas Congressman Pete Sessions, telling the CBN's David Brody that if Giuliani were in Congress today, his voting record would be considered by pro-life than pro-choice. Examples Sessions points to regarding Giuliani's abortion positions that would make him seem more pro-life than pro-choice: parental notification and his oppositon to so-called "partial-birth" abortion. 
 

Does any campaign do conservative symbolism better than Giuliani?  His appearance with the English-only Philly cheesesteak guy gets Rudy what he wants. 
 
But NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger reports that Giuliani was mobbed Monday night at Geno's Steaks. Amid a rowdy group of supporters, a handful of protesters yelled above the mayor and mobbed him as he toured the famous cheese-steak shop. Protesters are angry at Geno's owner Joey Vento, who placed a sign on his wall last year that read "This is America, when ordering speak English." They said Giuliani was endorsing an anti-immigrant stance by visiting Geno's.
 
Giuliani and wife Judith tried to walk around the stand and greet supporters, but were consistently stopped by reporters, supporters and protesters. When he tried to answer questions from the media, he was shouted at by the protesters, and signs reading "Philadelphia Loves Immigrants" were at his back. "This is America; people have the right to have their opinions," Giuliani said. "When I come here, I order in English."
 
Representatives from the Pennsylvania Immigration and Citizenship Coalition said they were disappointed Giuliani was visiting Vento's restaurant, given the former mayor's support for immigrants in New York City. "As mayor, he saw the contributions immigrants make," executive director Regan Cooper said. "Now he's flip-flopping."
 
Giuliani did place an order of several cheesesteaks, with provolone cheese. Many people there were cognizant John Kerry had made news across the street at Pat's in 2004 for ordering a cheesesteak with swiss cheese. Provolone is considered more appropriate, but not as good as the Philly standard Cheese Whiz. But Giuliani had to go inside to eat, and remained secluded there for 15 minutes, while the media waited outside. He had to be escorted back to his car by police amid a sea of reporters and fans.
 
"Anyone would expect any Republican showing up (to South Philadelphia) would have protesters," said Michael Shiely, 22, who came with a group of University of Pennsylvania College Republicans.
 
Shiely said he didn't understand what was wrong with Vento's policy. "I would think people coming to this country would want to learn English." Vento, who announced he was endorsing Giuliani on Fox News Channel before the mayor arrived, paraded Giuliani around the shop, and declared him the "First Italian President."
 
MCCAIN: This could be fun for McCain in tweaking Giuliani should McCain and not Rudy get the endorsement of "Tony Soprano."
 

McCain writes an op-ed, railing against his pet issue of earmark in the New Hampshire Union-Leader: "Despite the growing evidence that earmarks and pork-barrel spending corrupted the Republican Party, and even put some lawmakers in jail, these practices remain business as usual. Congress is the national legislature and should be focused on national priorities, not divisions by squabbling over who gets a bigger piece of the federal pie."  

Jewish groups criticized McCain for saying "he would prefer a Christian president over one of a different faith." Joe Lieberman came to his defense. 
 
THOMPSON: Some may classify this as another Thompson gaffe, but Thompson wouldn't concede this. The candidate reiterated that he believed Iraq did have WMD in 2003. "We can't forget the fact that although at a particular point in time we never found any WMD down there, he clearly had had WMD. He clearly had had the beginnings of a nuclear program," Thompson told an audience of about 60 at a Newton cafe. Thompson later said he was referring Saddam's attack on Kurdish northern Iraq with banned weapons in the 1980s.
 

It's not quite a Sister Souljah moment, but Thompson is sticking to his guns on gay marriage, backing a Constitutional amendment that would ban marriage but leave open the possibility states legalize the practice. "Everyone I have talked to in my meetings like this, the answer has been yes," said Thompson. He conceded there are reservations. "I think they prefer their own wording. They are primarily concerned about marriage being a union between a man and a woman," said Thompson. He said his solution strikes a balance. More: "In my estimation, his intent never did change," Thompson said. "And by today, he clearly would have had that (weapons program) rejuvenated."
 
Meanwhile, the Des Moines Register notes Thompson's opposition to the '03 Medicare Rx drug bill by juxtaposing his opposition to Iowa GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley's support. 
 
Thompson is going to have his share of Nashville celebrities backing his candidacy, like he did yesterday in Iowa where the "Rich" half of "Big N Rich" stumped for Thompson.

The New York Times examines the phenomenon that the Obama campaign, more than any other, is counting on and that's N.H.'s famed independents deciding to vote in the Democratic primary in greater numbers than they did in 2000, when the state's indies voted for John McCain in the 2000 primary.
 

"The shift has injected turmoil and uncertainty into the first-in-the-nation primaries, experts and campaign officials said. That creates an opportunity for Mr. Obama while posing complications to the candidacies of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Mr. McCain. ... Advisers to Mrs. Clinton said they viewed the wave of independent voters as the single biggest obstacle to her winning a state where she routinely draws big crowds and where polls otherwise show her running strong.
 
"It is a large reason, the advisers said, why Mrs. Clinton has increasingly embraced a message of change and talked about government accountability and corporate responsibility, two issues that have historically rung strongly with independents here. ... Some of Mr. Romney's advisers argued that the more independents there are voting in the Democratic primary, the more it could hurt Mr. McCain and former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani of New York by depriving them of potential votes."

A pox on both your houses. A new Washington Post/ABC poll confirms the recent trend that the public is not only upset with President Bush but the Democratic Congress as well. "Part of the displeasure with Congress stems from the stalemate between Democrats and the White House over Iraq policy. Most Americans do not believe Congress has gone far enough in opposing the war, with liberal Democrats especially critical of their party's failure to force the president into a significant change in policy."

Need a dry run of a campaign stop or a caucus-night gymnasium before you cover the real deal?  A new exhibit called "Caucus Iowa" opens at Des Moines' State Historical Museum on Friday.  Per the Register, "the exhibit reproduces a coffee shop that epitomizes the kind of "retail campaigning" that takes place in Iowa ahead of the caucuses."  Or you could just drive to Grinnell.

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
In Newton, IA this morning, Thompson said Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction at some time prior to the United States' involvement in Iraq.
 
"We can't forget the fact that although at a particular point in time we never found any WMD down there he clearly had had WMD," Thompson told a crowd of about 200 at the Midtown Cafe. "He clearly had had the beginnings of a nuclear program. And in my estimation his intent never did change. And by today, he clearly would have had that rejuvenated. Especially looking at what Iran said that it's doing."
 
More: "And what you would have had was a part of the world, sitting on all that oil and oil reserves that would be in danger of going much more nuclear than they are today. Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia that can afford pretty much anything it wants to afford, it's already got missiles from Pakistan, and could probably get much more than we would like it to get in terms of nuclear capability from Pakistan In response to what they were seeing going in their neighborhood. So that's what we averted and that's what we successfully averted."
 
On college education: 'I don't know'… again
Fred Thompson once again relied on his old "I don't know" defense when asked by a college-aged cook at cafe about a bill sponsored by Sen. Ted Kennedy meant to help make college more affordable. "Senator Kennedy's got so many bills," Thompson said. "I must say I don't know about the one you're probably talking about, but I know about your situation. I've been there."
 
Thompson, who put himself through college and law school in Tennessee while supporting his first wife and three children, said he paid off his college loans "about the same time my first child started college."
 
"I don't think we're in a position or we're ever going to be in a position where we can guarantee everyone four years of college from the federal treasury," Thompson said, adding that he was "mindful of the need for more education and better education in this country."
 
America's a Judeo-Christian nation
Speaking to reporters after the event, Thompson defended rival McCain's statement that the United States is a Christian nation. "Factually, the Judeo-Christian heritage of the United States is certainly a fact. I don't know what he said past that. But I think that is in fact the fact."
 
When asked if he would vote for a Muslim (McCain also said "it doesn't seem like a Muslim candidate would do very well"), Thompson said he would not rule anyone in or out. "You come with a particular candidate and a hypothetical situation in the future, I can't say that I would vote for or against anybody in any category."
 
But, he did bring in the current war on terror and America's hesitation toward Muslims. "Obviously, we have real, real problems," Thompson said. "We have a major long standing threat to this nation about radical Islam. There are a lot of Islamic individuals and citizens of this country who are not radical, who are very good citizens. I'm not going to categorically say that at any time in the future, I would or would not vote for anybody. "
 
Appeal to Conservatives
Thompson talked about a meeting he had with the Arlington Group and said he would be happy for any reporter to speak with them. "I talked about my background, where I was coming from, and to a certain extent myself as an individual," he responded. "I think we left there on very friendly terms, but they will have to answer that."
 
Appeal to Independents
Later in the day, Thompson addressed a sleepy crowd over lunch at Tremont on Main in Marshalltown, IA. The crowd of about 60 people seemed nonplused by the candidate's speech, treating it much like a lecture with little applause or laughter. Thompson was even forced to finish his speech by saying, "First of all can I have a round of applause," admitting that he had to "drag" it out of them. On the street after the lunch, two independent voters, Kathy Larson and Mary Brooks, said that they were pretty disappointed by what they heard.
 
"I have a couple friends who urged me to come to hear him because she said he crosses party lines," Larson said. "So I, in good faith, came. But I didn't hear specifics...no substance, you know, feel good. Well I don't feel good."
 
"He was so vague," Brooks added.
 
"And folksy and feel good, but that doesn't cut it," Larson said. "We really wanted to know about foreign policy, and I don't think he said much about it at all."
 
"I want to hear some diplomacy, not just force and action," Brooks said. "We're looking for the individual who's going to represent our country and not just continue on with this one-sided we are the most powerful country in the world. We're losing. We're losing respect."

From NBC's Carrie Dann
Dark-horse Republican candidate Ron Paul will report third quarter fundraising totals that exceed his $2.4 million take in Q2. According to communications director Jesse Benton, Paul raised $1.2 million alone in the last week during a down-to-the-wire online fundraising drive. The announcement comes after last week's New Hampshire trip for Rep. Paul, which included a rally attended by about 800 people and a major canvassing drive in the Granite State. The Ron Paul campaign expects to report its final third-quarter numbers later this week.

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger and NBC's Andy Merten
OCEAN VIEW, N.J. -- A day after Christian conservative leaders suggested they might support a third-party candidate if Giuliani got the Republican Party's nomination Giuliani said he was not focusing the issue.

"I'm working on one party right now, the Republican Party," he said after visiting patrons at Dino's Seaville Diner. "This is a long primary, and once there are nominees on either side, we'll figure that out."

The campaign touted its conservative credentials in an e-mail to reporters today, citing his record in New York City on cutting taxes, lowering the abortion rate and eliminating pornography from Times Square. He even got a boost from the Club for Growth, which sent out a letter (in response to Steve Forbes' letter to them in support of Giuliani) reaffirming their support for Giuliani's fiscal discipline. The group had openly questioned Giuliani's commitment to not raise Social Security taxes last week.

Although Giuliani was asked the question about social conservatives twice, he used each opportunity to address two other pertinent Republican issues -- his fiscal conservatism and his electability against Hillary Clinton. 

"I think each one of the Democrats is going to have to tell us exactly how much they are going to increase federal spending -- when you add up the taxes, the increases they've talked about, and the spending they've talked about, we're entitled to know how much," he said.  He then went on to criticize an initiative touted by Clinton on Friday, while speaking to the Congressional Black Caucus, in which she called for $5,000 "baby-bonds" for every child born in America, accessible upon graduation from high school.

And after being asked if the potential of losing the Christian right vote harms his viability as a general election candidate, Giuliani returned to his competitiveness against Clinton.

"Every poll shows that I would be, by far, the strongest candidate against Hillary Clinton," he said, adding, "There hasn't been one taken in the last six or seven months that shows anything other than I'm the Republican that has the best chance to beat her." 

He concluded by saying he hopes to put the formerly Democratic-leaning states of New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Connecticut into play next year. Giuliani also sidestepped whether he agreed with John McCain about the United States being a Christian nation.

"Our country was founded on principles that come from God," he said, before quoting the "freedom of religion" sections of the Bill of Rights. Giuliani seemed to enjoy his chit-chat with diners Monday. The conversation focused heavily on baseball, including the Philadelphia Phillies' upset of the New York Mets in the National League East pennant race, and football, including the Giants' win over the Eagles Sunday night.

From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
You might not have read this morning's Des Moines Register article examining Fred Thompson's nuanced proposal on the issue of same-sex marriage. But it's a good bet that Fred did.

Thompson supports a constitutional amendment that would not ban gay marriage at the federal level, but would instead stop judges from recognizing court rulings from other states that allow it. This morning's Register pointed out that Thompson's strategy may not be strong enough for some conservatives in Iowa.

But today, Thompson vigorously defended his proposal. "It's a good, sound, constitutional conservative position to maintain that will work more in our favor in the long run than if we totally do away with the principles of federalism," he told a crowd of about 60 in a cafe in Newton, Iowa.

Thompson's policy would technically allow state governments to pass legislation that would allow same-sex marriage, but he predicted that no legislature would actually make such a move. "If they decide they want to go in that direction, then they can go in that direction," he said. "But I can't imagine the people of Iowa or the people of Tennessee or the people of anywhere else would ever go in that direction."

Tim Morgan, a political and religious activist from Newton, approved of Thompson's idea. Under the current system, Morgan said, the opportunity for elected officials to debate the issue is preempted by judicial activism."I like the idea that the decision is taken out of the hands of judges," he said. 
 
The issue of gay marriage is particularly controversial in Iowa, where a Polk County judge recently ruled a gay marriage ban unconstitutional.  That ruling was stayed after only a few hours, and it is currently pending before the state's Supreme Court.  Thompson said that judges like the one who ruled on the Polk County case ignore the constitution and make rulings "to suit their own sociological needs."

*** UPDATE *** CHECK OUT NBC'S DES MOINES AFFILIATE'S (WHO-TV) COVERAGE OF FRED THOMPSON NOT TAKING QUESTIONS AFTER HIS CAMPAIGN SAID HE WOULD.

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
Romney's campaign today announced the launch of AnnRomney.com, which will track the former Massachusetts governor's spouse throughout the season.
 

Ann Romney has already been showing up on the campaign's primary Web site through its blog, but the new site will give the campaign's not-so-secret weapon a front-and-center role.
 
On the stump, the candidate invokes Bill Clinton's name as a segue to his own spouse's, and the new site echoes what is implicit in his remarks: He thinks Ann Romney is the strongest antidote to Bill Clinton.

Among the site's categories, "Ann's Recipes" is prominent. There's also an "AnnTV" to compliment "MittTV." But the campaign calls attention in its release announcing the site to the most visible section, "Ann's causes." She writes that after having been diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis in 1998, she has "devoted a great deal of time to raising awareness about the disease and am devoted to making a difference in the lives of people who suffer from MS."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Edwards raised $7 million in Q3 and has $12 million cash on hand; the campaign claimed as well to have potentially $22 million cash on hand with the help of matching funds.

Adviser Joe Trippi said on a conference call with reporters that the discussion of public financing started about two months ago and cited an impetus to do it after the lobbying discussion heated up at the YearlyKos Convention in Chicago.

The Edwards campaign has maintained that its goal all along has been to raise $40 million and this, they say, keep them on track as they've now raised more than $30 million. But clearly this is much less than Clinton and Obama. The campaign tried to spin hard the decision to take matching funds by railing against Clinton's tactics in raising money from PACs and lobbyists. "There's a distinction between us and Hillary Clinton," Trippi said.

But when asked about the fact that Obama is not taking money from PACs and lobbyists either in raising money, they turned it back to Clinton and even said, "Obama in his Senate race did take PAC and lobbying money."

Earlier in the call, Deputy Campaign Manager Jonathan Prince was more complimentary toward Obama's fund-raising efforts.

"There is tremendous grassroots enthusiasm for change," Prince said. "He's [Obama] obviously had a very good quarter. We're happy with where we are. We continue to grow our contributor base. Another 50,000 contributors this quarter. We have plenty for what we need."

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
Louis E. Caldera, the former secretary of the army, today endorsed Clinton in her bid for the White House, her campaign announced. Last month, Clinton picked up the endorsement of another major former military official, Gen. Wesley Clark.

Caldera will join Clark and Lt. General Claudia Kennedy on Clinton's Veterans and Military Retirees Committee. "Hillary Clinton is the candidate with the experience to deal with the complex challenges that our nation faces," Caldera said. "I am convinced that she is the leader with the strength to bring the change that America needs.

"Her record of fighting to give our soldiers and veterans the life-saving armor they need in the line of fire, and the health care and support services they deserve when they get home was crucial in my decision to endorse her."
 
Caldera, a West Point graduate, served in the California State Assembly and later in the administration of President Bill Clinton as managing director and chief operating officer for the Corporation for National and Community Service, the agency that sponsors the AmeriCorps volunteer service program. From 1998 to 2001, he was Secretary of the Army, the first Hispanic to serve in this position.

Caldera is the son of Mexican immigrants and could help in rallying Hispanic support.

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Making his first appearance on a daytime talk show since announcing his presidential run, Sen. Obama told The Tyra Banks Show's audience about his first date with Michelle (Baskin Robbins ice cream), what is on his iPod (Jay-Z, Miles Davis, and classical music such as Bach ... and a little salsa music too) and who should play him in a movie (Denzel Washington or Will Smith).
 

On a more serious note, Obama said the prejudices he has faced throughout his life have made him more empathetic toward other people's problems. He also credited his mother with inspiration for his policy choices. When his mother was 53 years old, she died from ovarian cancer and the Illinois senator said the healthcare system did not treat her well. "Watching her dying and worrying about medical bills motivates me to make sure every American has health care." 
 
As for his own parenting style, Obama said Michelle provides a perfect example for the girls as their role model because the two set limits for them. "Parents have to realize, kids want limits, they want structure," Obama said. "They don't want you to be their best friend; they want you to be the parent. If we had more parenting, then the kinds of influences we see on television don't matter."

Shifting to politics, Banks asked Obama about his statement at MSNBC's debate on Wednesday night that he would not promise to bring all troops out of Iraq by 2013. Obama told Banks he would start bringing troops home "in a very rapid fashion." And then he re-phrased the actual question, saying he was asked if he would keep some troops in Iraq "to carry out limited duties" such as guarding the embassy in Baghdad or having some counterterrorist forces to defend against Al Qaeda -- which Obama said he would.

In actuality, NBC's Tim Russert, who moderated the debate, made no such qualifications. Here's what he said: "Senator Obama, I'd like to start with you. General Petraeus in his testimony before Congress, later echoed by President Bush, gave every indication that in January of 2009 when the next president takes office, there will be 100,000 troops in Iraq. You're the president. What do you do? You said you would end the war. How do you do it in January of 2009?"
 
Banks talked about her brother Capt. Devon Banks, who is deployed in Afghanistan. She asked Obama to speak to him directly into the camera since he was watching, she said. "Devon, we are proud of you," Obama said. "We are grateful for your service. We want to get you back home as soon as possible. I know Tyra is thinking about you all the time, so make sure to send her emails all the time."
 
Obama ended his visit with Banks by playing some one-on-one basketball with Tyra Banks on set. But when she asked about a slumber party in the Lincoln bedroom, Obama told her he'd invite her to a BBQ on the South Lawn instead.

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
The Obama campaign announced today it raised more than $19 million in primary money ($20 million including general) from 93,000 new donors in Q3. That brings Obama's total to more than $80 million for the election cycle. But the campaign would not release any cash-on-hand figures.

In its e-mailed release, Campaign Manager David Plouffe gave a snarky rebuff of Clinton's front-runner status and "Washington conventional wisdom."

"Many in Washington have spent the last weeks declaring the outcome of this race to be pre-ordained, and the primary process a mere formality," Plouffe said. "Yet, in this quarter alone, 93,000 more Americans joined our campaign, because they desire real change and believe Barack Obama is the one candidate who can deliver it. This grassroots movement for change will not be deterred by Washington conventional wisdom because in many ways it is built to challenge it."

From NBC's Ken Strickland
It appears Sen. Larry Craig (R-ID) will remain in the Senate for at least a few more days. Early last month, his Washington spokesman said Craig "intends" to resign his seat on Sept. 30 unless charges stemming from the bathroom incident in Minnesota could be cleared before then.

While a hearing on the matter took place last week, the judge isn't expected to rule until later this week. Today, Craig spokesman Dan Whiting said in an e-mailed response to questions, "Senator Craig continues to work for Idaho in the Senate. I don't expect another announcement about his future in the Senate until after the judge rules on his case in Minnesota."

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell's office says, at this point, it has not heard from Craig. They maintain their previous position on the matter: his plan to resign was a difficult choice, but the right one. And it was given no indication of Craig's apparent change of plans to remain in the Senate.

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
Even a half hour after Ron Paul's "Revolution" rally ended in downtown Manchester, there was a crowd larger than other candidates could only hope to draw. The campaign estimated that as many as 800 people showed up as the Texas congressman kicked off a canvassing effort in New Hampshire's three largest cities.

The campaign gave out buttons asking: "Who is Ron Paul?" But who are Ron Paul's supporters? "I think they're new to the process," said Paul's son, Rand Paul. "We definitely have Democrats that are crossing over, Libertarians crossing over, Independents crossing over. And I think the people that come out are definitely gonna vote."

Rand Paul said that every day he's surprised at "how big" his father's campaign has gotten. Last week, they asked supporters to raise $500,000. "They passed that in three days, and now we're asking them to raise a million," Rand Paul said. By Sunday, they had done just that. And Rand Paul said his father might end the third fundraising quarter with more cash on hand than most of the other Republicans. "We may have more money on hand than Romney if you subtract what he's given himself," he said.

Paul rejected a comparison to Howard Dean's Internet fueled 2004 campaign, which fizzled by the time votes were actually cast. "My dad has been going around the country for 30 years, and has a following," Paul said. "It's definitely a committed core. Howard Dean didn't have that cohesive message and a philosophy." What Dean and Paul have in common is their anti-war message. And Paul said his father's stance makes him the Republican with "the best chance of getting independent voters over."

From NBC/National Journal's Mike Memoli
Huckabee's balding dome will never been confused for Edwards' mane, but he paid $400 for a trim anyway as part of a local fundraiser. Huckabee on Saturday became the first presidential candidate to take Concord salon owner David Holden up on his offer to get a $400 haircut, and give the proceeds to autism research.

Huckabee did not really need the cut, but spent some time in Holden's chair to play along. "We're not gonna make you look like any other candidate," Holden told Huckabee. "My barber's probably gonna sue me because he never got this kind of money from me," Huckabee said. "But his only cause is himself."

In between Huckabee's one-liners ("I told him if he could add hair to the top of my head, I'd pay more than the $400"), Holden asked him a serious question, about how much he'd spend as president on autism research. "You know, I don't have a budget figure, David," he said. "But it seems to me there's been a dramatic increase [in cases of autism], and I don't understand why."

The event, complete with camera crews and a giant novelty check, was a good publicity opportunity for both Huckabee and Holden's cause. The salon owner, whose son is autistic, thanked the former Arkansas governor after and expressed hope that other candidates would follow his lead. "I think it would be great if John Edwards came to see us," he said, "because now he can spend $400 on a haircut, and it could go to a good cause instead of just going to a hair salon."

But seriously folks. Huckabee's weekend trip to New Hampshire wasn't all rock concerts and charity haircuts. He told Granite State voters he's concerned the next generation of Americans face a more trying future. At a house party in Londonderry, Huckabee talked about how fortunate he was in life to rise from near poverty to become a candidate for president. He says he often talks to people who similarly say they are living better than they ever thought they would as a child.

"But when I ask how many of you think your kids and your grandkids will be living even better than you, sometimes nobody's hand goes up," Huckabee said. "And that's what we have to change."

Huckabee added that Washington today is partly to blame. "The political structure has gotten so polarized, it's paralyzed," he said. "I want a government that's competent, that works, that fixes potholes, that seals our borders, that says that if you're coming into this country you gotta do it legally. I want a country that doesn't penalize me for working harder, trying to earn and get ahead."

Islamic jihadism is another challenge, Huckabee said. "I know this is politically incorrect, but it's true, so let me say it. This war with Islamic jihadists is a theological war," he said. "You can't simply contain it with a military strategy."

He said Americans must understand "that our job is to protect the very future of the existence of our grandchildren," and that America could do so, in part, by pursuing energy independence, so America can "treat the Saudis the same way we treat the Swiss."

About 30 people gathered to hear Huckabee. Before he began speaking, he spent nearly 40 minutes greeting every person individually. That approach is key for Huckabee, who admitted after the event that he is "not going to be raising the kind of money" his rivals are. "But we never needed to, because we don't spend money like they do," Huckabee said. "Frankly if I had to raise the kind of money, and if I spent that kind of money, and I wasn't any higher in the polls, I'd go home and cry my eyes out tonight."

Huckabee's day began at a pancake breakfast at a senior center in Concord. Later Saturday, Huckabee spoke at a workshop as part of Newt Gingrich's American Solutions day. Asked about Gingrich's decision not to run, Huckabee said: "There's no one who probably generates more innovative ideas in America in either party than Newt Gingrich. And putting his full focus on those ideas that the rest of us can capture and run with is probably a better use of his time and talent."

From NBC's Courtney Kube
The U.S. military reported that 63 service members were killed in Iraq during the month of September, the lowest monthly total since August 2006, and the lowest yet for 2007. The next closest month in 2007 was July with 78.
 
The U.S. has 165,000 troops on the ground in Iraq.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Las Vegas Review-Journal reports that "Nevada's presidential caucuses seem likely to take place a week earlier than originally planned, moving to Jan. 12 from Jan. 19, insiders said last week."

The AP notes that Iowa's caucuses could be as early as Jan. 3, but party officials will wait to make a decision until after New Hampshire makes its decision.

"[S]ome in New Hampshire speculate that [NH Secretary of State Bill] Gardner could move the primary into December -- perhaps Dec. 18 -- to ensure plenty of time before the contests to follow. Iowa is committed to being first, but officials clearly shudder at the thought of a December caucus. As Iowa Gov. Chet Culver put it, "In this state, we're still going to have Christmas."

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
*** The first day of the rest…: Today is the first day of the 4th quarter of this campaign (did we EVER think we'd get to this point?). There's no more "it's early" excuses. In as few as 95 days, Iowans will get together and caucus. That's right, 95 days!?!?!? As for what to expect TODAY, we should get a clearer sense of where the campaigns stand regarding money. The Democratic race is status quo -- though the cash-on-hand totals will be of interest; Has Obama outspent Clinton to date and is that a good thing considering how Clinton has become more of an entrenched frontrunner since we last got money reports?

VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on problems conservatives have finding a candidate plus the Iowa Democratic primary.  

*** Thompson's first quarter: It's the GOP side of things where we're going to learn a lot. This is the first Fred Thompson quarter, and it appears his money isn't great; Compared to his current rivals, his $8-10 million seems competitive. But this is Thompson's FIRST quarter and comparing this $8-10 million to the first-quarter pulls of Giuliani, Romney and McCain, it's a relatively weak showing. But Thompson's not alone in raising a somewhat disappointing amount this quarter. Giuliani's total apparently isn't going to be great (see the finance firing last week) and Romney's having to contribute more of his own money and then there's McCain, whose money total is obviously lower than expected. Poor John Edwards, he'd be in the top tier in fundraising if he were in the GOP field, but instead he's had no choice but to take matching funds. Romney's obviously not taking matching funds, but what about Giuliani, Thompson and McCain?
 
*** Frontrunners under fire: There appears to be a shift in the tone of coverage for both Clinton and Giuliani. For Clinton, one could sense this last week, particularly at the debate, when she was the one under the most fire. But that tough love continued over the weekend with lots of electability questions (check out the LAT's Rocky Mountain story and the anonymous Democrats quoted in it). As for Giuliani, the big news today, of course, is the third-party threat from Christian conservatives, most notably James Dobson. No potential candidate is floated but how Giuliani deals with this threat this week will tell us a lot about his ability to win this nomination.
 
***

Poll position: The buzz of the weekend is the Newsweek poll showing all three Dems neck-n-neck-n-neck. The Obama folks are gloating over the fact they are leading among likely caucus goers, but Clinton isn't far behind (and leads among all Iowa Dems). The candidate hurt the most in this poll is Edwards. He's third among both likely caucus goers and all Dems. Two spins we're getting from EdwardsWorld: 1) The more polls show it close in Iowa, the more a victory will give them a boost; 2) Whenever national pollsters parachute into the state, they over-poll casual caucus goers, inflating the Clinton and Obama numbers. No matter, the buzz of dropping to third place isn't coming at a good time for Edwards, just days after he conceded he couldn't keep up with Clinton and Obama financially.
 
*** All eyes on the Hawkeye State: By the way, Iowa party leaders are going to be under enormous pressure regarding whether to pick Jan. 3 or Jan. 5 for the caucuses. Candidates who are worried about losing Iowa (read: Clinton and Giuliani) prefer Jan. 5 (and a 3-day gap between Iowa and N.H.). Candidates who would like to take full advantage of the Iowa bump want Jan. 3 (read: Romney, Edwards and Obama).
 
***

Who is Mitt Romney: the early state GOP frontrunner is the Newsweek cover boy. The article is not flattering, touching on his flip-flops, questioning some of his Massachusetts successes and spends a lot of time on whether his religion will be a primary problem. The "Romney-is-stuck" storyline seems to have some legs with various observers. The shift a few weeks ago to a campaign message that's focused on change has yet to take hold but it's only been a few weeks. 
  
*** Watching Freedom's Watch: Don't overlook the news that Freedom's Watch, the group of Republicans who have put millions together to support Bush's Iraq policy this fall, plans to raise some $200 million for the 2008 election. Will this make them the Republicans' ACT? Or Progress for America on steroids? A $200 million goal is jaw-dropping, but if it's done via soft money, then it's doable. Could Freedom's Watch be the group that ends up filling the gap in the spring when the GOP nominee (if it's NOT Romney) is out of money? By the way, Freedom's Watch has ducked real scrutiny (or fact-checking) on their ads to date but the higher profile they build, the more likely the scrutiny will come. They got fairly little grief for linking Iraq and 9/11 in their first TV ads.
 
***

He won't leave: Larry Craig is still in the Senate. Just how aggressive will Senate GOPers get in trying to drive Craig out? Now that he's NOT followed through on his Sept. 30 resignation promise, it could become open season on him. Republicans are petrified of having Craig get a high profile during this battle. This is turning into a nightmare scenario for the party, which is struggling to keep its family values mantra.
 
***

On the Trail: Biden speaks to county Democrats in South Carolina and holds a press conference in Columbia; Clinton lays out her "urban agenda" at a community college in Oakland; Giuliani campaigns in Cape May, NJ and Philadelphia; Obama campaigns in Columbus, SC and Tampa; Richardson raises money in New Mexico; Romney campaigns in Missouri; Thompson makes four stops in Iowa, including a coffee, a lunch, a walking tour of Iowa Falls and a meet and greet; and Bloomberg is in London, where the New York Mayor meets with the mayor of The Big Smoke.
 
Countdown to LA GOV election: 19 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 36 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 47 days
Countdown to Iowa: 105 days (or is it 95 days or 97 days or...)
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 110 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 127 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 400 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 477 days

Here's something to compare Thompson's money to: the 1st Q numbers of his three main rivals: Romney raised 21.2M; Giuliani raised 16.6M; McCain raised 13M.
 

By comparison, Fred's $7-8M (or even $10 million) this quarter is not great. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that sources say Fred Thompson will report in excess of $8 million, but would not say if the campaign breaks the $10 million mark in his campaign's first FEC filing. More specifically, advisors say Thompson has 70,000 individual donors, which they claim describe as "a huge signal of grassroots support." About one quarter of the money raised comes from online donors. And since his formal announcement day in early September, advisors claim they have raised 200-thousand dollars a day.
 
Advisors acknowledge the third-quarter filing may be "a little less than" Giuliani, but they claim their fundraising makes Thompson "competitive." They claim to "feel good." Thompson's campaign will complete its filing within a few days and does not plan to be the first campaign to announce.
 

Richardson announced he raised another $5.2 million in the third quarter. Richardson spokesman Tom Reynolds tells the AP, "This figure obviously separates us from the second-tier candidates and makes clear this is a four-person race." He may eschew public financing.
 

Edwards' camp, when they announced their decision to take matching funds, indicated they would raise at least $7 million. NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller reports Edwards senior adviser Joe Trippi sent one last plea to fulfill the campaign's goal of raising $1 million online by the end of the quarter Sunday night. "Ten days ago, we put our online campaign in your hands. We did the math and told you that to stay on target we needed to raise $1 million online by midnight tonight," he wrote. "None of us knew if that was possible." Trippi wrote that the campaign needed $79,212 more by midnight in the giver's time zone.
 
As for the two Dem frontrunners, the Washington Post is reporting that both camps will raise more than $17 million. NBC News sources indicate both will surpass $20 million.
 
For some reason, this L.A. Times piece about last-minute fundraising for Clinton led with a shot about Norman Hsu. The LAT notes had Hsu not been in jail, he would have been "an integral part of Clinton's Northern California swing. He was supposed to serve as co-host at a Clinton fundraiser Sunday evening in the Silicon Valley town of Woodside."
 
On the GOP side, Romney's camp announced they've raised about $10 million and that the candidate contributed another $6-7 million.