From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The House will vote later this morning to revamp its Page Board, the much maligned panel that stood accused of complicity in a partisan cover-up during the Mark Foley scandal. You'll recall that the then-chairman of the Board, Rep. John Shimkus (R-Il), responded to initial allegations of salacious e-mails by joining the House Clerk and going to Foley. The two men gave the Florida Republican a stern talking to in private but it proved to be ineffective in curbing his behavior. The meeting and the allegations were all kept hush-hush. Shimkus neglected to inform the other members of the Board of what had transpired, including Democrat Dale Kildee and Republican Shelley Moore Capito. Today, Kildee has sponsored legislation that would equalize the number of Republicans and Democrats on the Board, as well as include a parent of a page and a representative of former pages on the panel.

From NBC's Huma Zaidi
Former Ohio Congressman Bob Ney has been sentenced to 30 months in jail -- more than what federal prosecutors recommended to the judge -- for his role in the Jack Abramoff bribery scandal.  Last year, Ney pleaded guilty to accepting costly gifts and trips in exchange for using his position to do favors for Abramoff and his clients. Abramoff, meanwhile, is serving a six year sentence for his involvement in another scandal.

From Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, Lauren Appelbaum, and Carrie Dann
Four days until Bush's State of the Union address, here's where things stand: House Democrats have passed their entire "Six for '06" agenda; the Iraqi government has arrested a top aide to the Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr; the bipartisan Senate resolution condemning Bush's troop increase has been introduced and will hit the floor in the next couple of weeks; and the presidential contest -- even if some candidates aren't officially in -- is already well underway.

Democratic leaders Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi deliver their own kind of State of the Union address this morning at the National Press Club. According to excerpts, Reid will say this about Bush's troop increase in Iraq: "The President's plan will receive an up-or-down vote in both chambers of Congress. It is the only way the American people can have their voice heard. Our hope ... is that the President will hear the bipartisan chorus opposing escalation, and work with Democrats to find a new course." Pelosi will add that many House members support the non-binding resolution on Bush's plan, and she will also touch on her next legislative priority: curbing global warming. "We want to work with President Bush on this important issue in a bipartisan way. But we cannot afford to wait."

And Reid will say this about Iran: "This morning, I'd like to be clear: The President does not have the authority to launch military action in Iran without first seeking congressional authorization."
 
Over at the Republican National Committee's winter meeting, its 168 members vote today to elect longtime party operative Mike Duncan as their chairman and Florida Sen. Mel Martinez as general chairman. At lunchtime, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell addresses the meeting. And tomorrow morning, White House press secretary Tony Snow concludes the RNC's four-day gathering with remarks at breakfast.

As we've mentioned before, a few RNC members have expressed their displeasure at Martinez and his pro-immigration views. "Choosing an RNC chairman who supports amnesty is tantamount to telling the conservative majority of Americans that they do not matter," one committee member told the Washington Times. The group English First is even running an ad on National Review Online, which calls Martinez "the wrong choice" for chair. An RNC spokesman tells First Read that he expects just 10 to 15 votes against Martinez's election -- which, if true, won't threaten his chairmanship. "Martinez will be fine," the spokesman says. (However, at departing chair Ken Mehlman's farewell address yesterday, the audience applauded after Mehlman praised Duncan, but remained silent after he did the same for Martinez.)

There's also plenty of oh-eight news today and over the weekend. First, Sen. Sam Brownback formally announces his presidential bid tomorrow in Topeka, KS. Today, Tom Vilsack makes a few stops in New Hampshire, while Mitt Romney huddles with supporters at a closed event in East Brunswick, NJ. Sen. Chris Dodd rallies with supporters in Hartford, CT before heading this weekend to New Hampshire, where he'll meet with activists and supporters. John Edwards holds a town hall in Iowa City, IA tomorrow to discuss the troop escalation in Iraq. And John McCain, along with Ted Kennedy, does Meet the Press on Sunday.

Finally, former Rep. Bob Ney (R) -- who resigned from Congress due to the Abramoff influence-peddling scandal, and who certainly contributed to the GOP losing his seat -- receives his sentence today. NBC's Joel Seidman reports that the Justice Department is asking for a term of 27 months in prison.

After the third day of jury selection in the Lewis "Scooter" Libby's trial, NBC's Kelly O'Donnell says a total of 49 prospective jurors have been brought forward for questioning. Thirty of them have been accepted as qualified to serve, while 19 have been rejected -- mostly for expressing bias towards the Bush Administration, Vice President Cheney, and the Iraq war. Six more qualified jurors are still needed before the two sides can exercise "strikes" to reach a jury of 12, plus four alternates. 

O'Donnell adds that there is no jury work today due to the judge's calendar. So the next questioning will occur on Monday. Opening statements are now projected for Tuesday -- the same day as Bush's State of the Union address.

NBC's Adam Verdugo reports on some of the color from yesterday's juror questioning. One female, he says, stated shortly after sitting down that she was a "very partisan Democrat." The judge responded with "You're an American first, right?" She was dismissed. Another female, who works for the CIA doing mostly clerical duties, stated: "Bush is not one of my favorite people." Libby's attorney interjected, "And Cheney?" "About the same," she replied.

The Washington Post says the arrest of a top aide to Muslim Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr comes "as Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, is under pressure from Washington to demonstrate that he's unafraid to take on Sadr and other Shiite militias."

Already in the Middle East meeting with Arab leaders, Defense Secretary Robert Gates made a surprise stop in Iraq today to meet with American and British military officials.

The Chicago Tribune says that "with opinion polls registering opposition at a ratio of 2-1 to the president's plan for more U.S. troops in Iraq, many Democrats now are looking well beyond the mere symbolism of a non-binding resolution and proposing ways to gain more control over war spending."

Rep. Leonard Boswell (D), who has voted with Republicans against troop withdrawal in the past, said yesterday that he cannot support the troop increase and that he will "no longer acquiesce to a failed and tragic military exercise in Iraq," the Des Moines Register says. "It was somewhat of a shift for Boswell, a political moderate who is a member of the House intelligence committee and has not been as critical in his remarks about the war as some Democrats."

The New York Times covers the grilling AG Alberto Gonzales received from lawmakers, the day after the Bush Administration announced it was placing its warrantless surveillance program under court supervision. "A central question is whether the court will approve eavesdropping case by case, its traditional practice, or will it issue broader orders that provide additional government leeway in selecting targets." Also: "Some lawmakers wanted to know why the administration had waited five years from the start of the program to put it under the supervision of the secret intelligence court."

The Los Angeles Times adds that the Administration refused to provide details of how the surveillance program would work, "triggering a fresh round of complaints and suspicions from Democrats about what the administration was doing." 
 
Per NBC's Mike Viqueira, the kickoff to Rep. Henry Waxman's (D) long-awaited investigation into contracting waste, fraud, and abuse in Iraq appears to be underway. Waxman's committee says it has invited three people -- including Coalition Provisional Authority head Paul Bremer -- to testify at a hearing the week of February 6.

USA Today writes that when he delivers his State of the Union address, Bush will be facing a new audience (a Democratic-controlled Congress) on an old issue (Iraq). Yet: "Unlike Bush's prime-time address on Iraq last week, [press secretary Tony] Snow said, the State of the Union 'has a large domestic component' that will be crafted to find common ground with the Democrats who control Congress. The agenda includes immigration, education and energy." http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-01-18-prez-sotu_x.htm

The Washington Times also discusses the new audience Bush will face. "For the first time, he will address a Democratic majority in the joint chamber. Behind him, right next to Vice President Dick Cheney, will be House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California. This scenario has influenced the speech, which will seek to enunciate issues on which Republicans and Democrats can agree."

The New York Times covers outgoing RNC chairman Ken Mehlman's farewell address yesterday, and it also mentions some of the controversy surrounding his successor, Mel Martinez. "Mr. Martinez is expected to win the job by a large margin, but a handful of dissidents plan to vote against him because of his support for liberalized immigration laws."  

The Washington Times reports, however, that some of Martinez's critics are asking for a secret ballot, so they can vote against him without fear of retaliation. "'If we get the secret ballot as promised, then every member will feel free to express his or her view without the fear of coercion or intimidation,' said RNC member Curly Haugland of North Dakota." 

The House yesterday passed its rollback of oil industry subsidies by a 264-163 vote, the AP says. "The bill's prospects are uncertain the Senate, where Democrats hold a narrow majority. The top Republican on the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee, Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa, said the bill was 'another pig in the poke' that targets incentives necessary to promote domestic drilling."

With that passage, House Democrats completed their 100-hour "Six for '06" agenda. The New York Times writes that Democrats cheered that accomplishment, while Republicans derided the hurry-up nature of the effort as a bit of one-sided political showmanship that undercut the Democrats' pledge that the new Congress would be more bipartisan." More: "The $2.10-an-hour increase in the minimum wage may be the legislation with the best chance of becoming law… The outlook for other 100-hour measures is more problematic."

The Hartford Courant adds: "Now comes the hard part - passing the Senate, where rules allow the 49-seat Republican minority much more say, and getting signed into law. All the bills face changes, and at least two, presidential vetoes."

The AP calculates that House Democrats passed their 100-hour agenda in about 87 hours -- "with 13 hours to spare." According to the Democrats' clock, they accomplished the feat in 42 hours. "'No matter how many different ways they want to count it, we made it within our 100 hours,' said Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland." 

The Los Angeles Times says the House Democrats' next target focuses on energy independence and global warming. "Pelosi announced that she intended to create a select panel to help craft the party's environmental agenda and had asked committee chairs with jurisdiction over the issue to pass legislation "to truly declare our energy independence" by July 4." 

But Pelosi's decision to create a global warming committee has angered some Democrats, including Rep. John Dingell, who heads the House Energy and Commerce Committee. "'We should probably name it the committee on world travel and junkets… We're just empowering a bunch of enthusiastic amateurs to go around and make speeches and make commitments that will be very difficult to honor,' said Dingell, a champion of the auto industry, which could be required to producing cleaner-burning and more fuel efficient vehicles."

The Washington Post covers yesterday's passage, by a 96-2 vote, of the Senate's ethics legislation. It "would ban gifts, meals and travel funded by lobbyists, and would force lawmakers to attach their names to special-interest provisions and pet projects that they slip into bills. Lawmakers would have to pay charter rates on corporate jets, not the far-cheaper first-class rates they pay now." 

But, per USA Today: "Action on the ethics plan stalled Wednesday after New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg and other Republicans blocked a vote on the bill. They were demanding the measure include what amounts to line-item veto power for the president… The impasse highlighted the difficulty Senate Democrats face in trying to push their agenda in a chamber where they control 51 out of 100 votes." 

Roll Call adds, "Republican leaders agreed to support cloture for the ethics bill after Democrats said they would allow a vote on the Gregg plan as an amendment to the minimum wage bill expected to be taken up next week."

The New York Times says that Fed chief Ben Bernanke testified yesterday about the "danger posed by looming deficits in Social Security and Medicare. 'The longer we wait, the more severe, the more draconian, the more difficult the adjustment is going to be,' Mr. Bernanke said…'I think the right time to start is about 10 years ago.'"

While more people have a positive outlook on the economy since 2001, the Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll finds that an increasing number believe free trade has actually hurt the economy. "The fraying pro-trade consensus may give support to newly empowered Democrats in Congress, many of whom want to retreat from the free-trade position established by former President Bill Clinton, political analysts say."

How early is this presidential race starting? Investigative reporters are already doing their digging on the candidates. The Washington Post reports that the people who purchased John Edwards' Georgetown home for $5.2 million were Paul and Terry Klaassen, the wealthy founders of the nation's largest assisted-living housing chain for seniors -- who have been criticized by some of the very unions Edwards is courting, and who are the subject of an SEC inquiry. "Edwards was told the Klaassens' name 'in passing' around the time the offer came in on Dec. 18, [an Edwards spokeswoman] said last night, but he did not investigate further and had no knowledge of their business until a reporter's inquiry Wednesday."

The Los Angeles Times notes that some African-American politicians and leaders have doubts about Barack Obama and will be supporting other Democratic presidential candidates (like Edwards or Clinton). "Excitement is spreading among Democratic Party activists that Obama might have a shot at winning the White House, but black opinion leaders are still sizing him up - and some are already expressing greater kinship with other candidates."

The Washington Times looks at how and why global warming will be a key issue in the next presidential race.

From NBC's Mark Murray
In his last speech as chairman of the Republican National Committee, Ken Mehlman listed four lessons that he said his party should learn from its midterm losses last fall. First, he made the argument that House Minority Leader John Boehner made earlier: that Republicans must be the party of reform. "It must be our party that recommits itself to being the party of change." Second, he contended that Republicans shouldn't tolerate corruption or ethical transgressions. "Public service is a sacred trust," he said, "and we cannot allow it to be sullied by anybody -- Republican or Democrat."

The third lesson, Mehlman said, is that Republicans need to continue to grow the party by reaching out to minorities. And his fourth lesson -- which might surprise some of his political opponents -- is that Republicans need to do a better job of working with Democrats. "This doesn't mean we abandon our philosophy," Mehlman explained. "But on many issues, we can ... think broadly about how to work with Democrats and independents to accomplish our mission."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney dropped by the House side this afternoon to give a chat and take some questions from House Republicans. A brief bit of eavesdropping revealed that Romney is, like a lot of people these days, something of a Barack Obama fan

At least three dozen members jammed the small basement meeting room that -- now that they are in the minority -- is the only real estate available to Republicans in the Capitol. It was so crowded, in fact, that the doors were left open and a nosy reporter could observe the gathered politicians in their natural habitat.

Romney stood before them and held forth energetically, fielding questions not only on specific issues like education, but also on his overall vision of the future of the Party. On that last point, he called for a message of "optimism" from Republicans. "Look at Obama," he said by way of example. "What are his issues? He doesn't have any," Romney declared. "His message is simply one of hope, and that is what people are looking for."

Shortly thereafter the door to the room was closed. A top Republican buttonholed on his way out of the meeting was asked if Romney was trying to woo members of the rank-and-file. "Yes, and perhaps it was the other way around, too," he said.

From NBC's Huma Zaidi
In their first gathering since losing the majority in both houses of Congress, RNC members gathered this afternoon to hear House Minority Leader John Boehner tell them why they lost and what they plan on doing about it.  He didn't stop there, though. Boehner took a few shots at Democrats, arguing that while they were the minority party they expressed "constant negativity" and that their efforts to work with the GOP lacked civility. Republicans will do better, Boehner said. He added that with Democrats now in the majority, they're in for a "rude awakening" when they try to move their "big agenda" through Congress. (Democrats will hold a press conference later today touting their completion of their "Six for '06 agenda).

In his post-mortem of why Republicans lost in last year's midterms, Boehner said that a multitude of problems could be to blame (such as Iraq and ethics problems) but ultimately they lost because they lost their way and didn't give Americans a reason to vote for them.  Boehner said the party must "rebuild voters' confidence" and make an effort to be seen as "relevant" to the issues facing Americans. In order to do that, Boehner said Congress must tackle issues like health care, welfare and entitelement reform and balancing the budget. (There was no mention of national security or Iraq in that list of agenda items). Boehner also said that the RNC needs to reach out to nontraditional voters.

From Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, Lauren Appelbaum, and Carrie Dann
As he prepares for his State of the Union address next week, President Bush has no public events today or tomorrow. Consequently, the center of the GOP universe shifts a few blocks -- from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue to the downtown Grand Hyatt in DC, where Republicans are gathering for the RNC's winter meeting to discuss their lessons learned from the 2006 midterms. There are two big events today: House Minority Leader John Boehner's speech at lunch and outgoing RNC chairman Ken Mehlman's farewell address later in the afternoon. Tomorrow, the party elects its new chair, Florida Sen. Mel Martinez.

Per excerpts provided by his office, Boehner will say, "Democrats didn't win this election. Republicans lost." He will add: "Over time, we became less interested in developing new, innovative, conservative solutions to America's problems. The Republican brand became diluted and voters went the other way." Mehlman, meanwhile, will discuss how ethics problems and scandals hurt the party in 2006. "If there are Republicans for whom influence or power or money have become more important than serving the public and the nation, then let me make it perfectly clear: We don't want you," he will say, according to an advanced copy of the speech.

But neither man, it seems, will devote much attention to another issue that contributed to the GOP's losses in 2006: Iraq. However, it's certainly on the minds of many Republicans. As conservative columnist Bob Novak writes today, "One nationally prominent Republican pollster reported confidentially on Capitol Hill after the president's speech that if U.S. boots are still on the ground in Iraq and U.S. blood is still being spilled there at the end of the year, the GOP disaster in 2008 will eclipse 2006."

Another thing that Mehlman will mention today is the biggest imprint he has tried to leave on his party: broadening the GOP's tent to minorities. That hasn't been easy or without controversy: Your First Read team remembers attending one of Mehlman's first speeches as RNC chair, in which he spoke to a GOP-friendly audience of African Americans at Howard University. Halfway through the speech, a student protestor loudly interrupted the event, raising issue that dissenting voices weren't invited. The student then wrestled with a security guard until they crashed into the press corps -- including us.

Mehlman certainly had his share of success with this outreach. In the 2004 presidential election, when he served as Bush's campaign manager, Bush won a much larger share of the Hispanic vote. In addition, the party had three African Americans run for high office in 2006 -- Ken Blackwell in Ohio, Michael Steele in Maryland, and Lynn Swann in Pennsylvania -- who won their respective nominations. But there were also failures: The GOP lost ground with Hispanics in last year's midterms, and all three of those African-Americans candidates lost (two of them badly) in the general election.

Much of it wasn't Mehlman's fault. The Bush Administration's botched response to Hurricane Katrina and the GOP's divisive debate on illegal immigration alienated some blacks and Hispanics in 2006. And you could argue that Steele might have won in blue Maryland had the overall political environment been better for Republicans. But observers were also puzzled to see an RNC that made minority outreach a goal -- and also apologized for the GOP's Southern Strategy -- air last year's controversial "Harold, call me" TV ad in Tennessee against Harold Ford (D), which suggested interracial dating. Mehlman and the RNC maintained, however, that the ad was an independent expenditure and thus the party couldn't control its content and couldn't pull it down.

Mehlman's imprint on the party is also clearly reflected by his successor, the Latino Mel Martinez. Yet as some party stalwarts now criticize Martinez for his pro-immigration views and as the 2008 race takes shape, the question becomes: Does the party move toward Mehlman's vision or away from it?

Per a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll, three-fifths of the public oppose Bush's plan to send more US troops to Iraq, and 51% say they want to block that deployment. Moreover, just 33% approve of Bush's handling of the Iraq war, and 39% approve of Bush's overall job performance. "The sole ray of light for Bush in the poll may be signs of public ambivalence about how Congress should respond to his plans on Iraq. Despite the widespread opposition to the troop escalation, Americans divide more closely on whether lawmakers should try to stop it."

"The poll also shows the potential saliency of the war in the 2008 presidential elections, especially for Senator John McCain of Arizona… A plurality of self-defined moderates and independents, a key McCain constituency, said his advocacy of a troop escalation even larger than the one Bush has announced makes them less likely to support him if he runs for the White House."

Lots of news yesterday: A bipartisan group of senators -- led by Sens. Biden, Levin, Hagel, and Snowe -- unveiled a Senate resolution opposing Bush's troop increase in Iraq; the Bush Administration reversed course on its warrantless surveillance program; and Hillary Clinton, as she eyes a presidential bid, issued her harshest criticism of the war. Sens. Snowe and Mary Landrieu will likely discuss it all when they appear today on MSNBC's Hardball.

The Washington Post says the Senate non-binding resolution, "which could come to a vote within two weeks, moves Congress a major step closer to a public confrontation with the Bush administration over war policy… A week after Bush addressed the nation on his policy shift, bipartisan opposition appears to be gaining steam, despite continuing White House efforts to tamp down a congressional revolt."

The AP notes how the resolution "threatens to expose fissures within the GOP over the unpopular war." More: "Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said his panel will debate the measure on Jan. 24, the day following Bush's State of the Union address. A swift committee review would pave the way for debate on the floor as early as that week, although Democrats say it is likely Republicans on the committee will want to make changes." 

Roll Call: "Despite lobbying from President Bush, Cheney and other top administration officials, GOP leadership aides said their party is too fractured on Iraq for a unified position. One aide said that while GOP leaders will engage Democrats on the issue, the divisions are so deep that it is unlikely major pressure will be brought to bear on wayward Republicans."

The Washington Post covers Hillary Clinton's announcement yesterday that she supports the nonbinding Senate resolution against Bush's troop increase, and would go further by introducing legislation to cap the numbers of US soldiers in Iraq. It was "her harshest assessment to date of President Bush's Iraq war strategy yesterday, continuing her steady evolution from one of the war's staunchest supporters to one of the administration's most prominent critics."

Liberal MoveOn issued this statement yesterday on Clinton: "We look forward to seeing Senator Clinton use her powers as a senator to stop the escalation and move towards a redeployment. A key test is how any senator puts words into action. We would welcome her future leadership."

USA Today looks at the all of yesterday's maneuvering on Iraq by the presidential hopefuls.

Democratic Sens. Patty Murray, Ted Kennedy, Sherrod Brown, and Bernie Sanders will hold a press conference this morning on the Hill along with Iraq war veterans, who are part of the newly formed Americans Against Escalation in Iraq. After the press conference, the group will pay visits to the offices of (among others) Obama, Clinton, Kerry, and Brownback.

The Washington Post covers the Bush Administration's decision yesterday to disband its warrantless surveillance program. "The change -- revealed by Attorney General Alberto R. Gonzales in a letter to the leaders of the Senate Judiciary Committee -- marks an abrupt reversal by the administration, which for more than a year has aggressively defended the legality of the NSA surveillance program and disputed court authority to oversee it… Administration officials suggested that the move was aimed in part at quelling persistent objections to the NSA spying by Democrats who now control Congress."

The Boston Globe also speculates that the "White House decision seemed timed to block a lawsuit by the American Civil Liberties Union, which was set to go before an appeals court on Jan. 31. Last year, a federal judge agreed with the ACLU that Bush's wiretapping program was illegal."

NBC's Courtney Kube notes that today marks Robert Gates' one-month anniversary of as Defense secretary; he was sworn in on December 18, 2006. 

It's the third -- and probably final -- day of jury selection in the trial of former Cheney chief of staff Lewis "Scooter" Libby. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell says 24 prospective jurors remain the pool; nine have been dismissed (two for financial hardship, one for insufficient English, one for medical problems, and five for bias). Judge Reggie Walton said he wants to finish selection today and will work past 5:00 pm, if necessary. Per O'Donnell, some of yesterday's more interesting prospective jurors included:
-- a white woman who said: "I can't believe any statement by the Bush Administration." She was dismissed.
-- a retired high school math teacher from North Carolina who said this about Cheney: "I think the vice president played a pivotal role in Desert Storm, the first war. I think as Defense secretary, he deserves a lot of credit for that. The man added: "Not sure about his health with his heart. Not sure I'd like to go bird hunting with him, either."
-- a white male who said he was a former Washington Post reporter and also a former neighbor of NBC's Tim Russert. He described Russert as "entertaining" and "friendly" but added that he doesn't watch Meet the Press. He also stressed his ability to be fair and weigh facts, but also said, "I'm not making a pitch to get on this jury."

As the Washington Post writes, "To see how small a town Washington really is, drop in on jury selection at the trial of I. Lewis 'Scooter' Libby, where so far nearly every juror candidate seems to have a connection to the players or events surrounding the leak of an undercover CIA officer's identity."

The New York Times reports that, due to budgeting problems at the Small Business Administration, the federal government's biggest program to help people recover from natural disasters is about to run out of money. "If Congress does not intervene in the next month or so to cover the administrative costs of the program, it will have to shut down… [E]ven a temporary shutdown could delay aid to victims of the ice storms in the Midwest and other recent natural disasters, and would further hamper a program that was widely criticized for its slow response to the hurricanes that hit the Gulf Coast in 2005."

The Washington Times again covers some of the opposition to incoming RNC chair Mel Martinez. "Texas RNC member Denise McNamara said the attempt by Mr. Bush's supporters on the national committee to name Sen. Mel Martinez of Florida as general chairman 'is like pouring gas on an already smoldering electorate' … 'Choosing an RNC chairman who supports amnesty [for illegal aliens] is tantamount to telling the conservative majority of Americans that they do not matter.'" 

Despite this rebellion by some members, the Miami Herald reports that the White House is confident in Martinez's chances of becoming RNC chairman.

The Democrats will conclude their "Six for '06" agenda today with a vote on repealing tax breaks for oil companies. As USA Today puts it: "After taking on the restaurant, drug and banking industries, House Democrats top off their first 100 hours of majority status Thursday with a swipe at Big Oil." House Democratic leaders will hold a press conference later this afternoon to discuss their "Six for '06" accomplishments.

The AP notes, however, that the measure's prospects in the Senate are uncertain given the Democrats' narrow majority there and sharp opposition from some Republicans as well as the White House.

Yesterday, the House passed its bill to cut interest rates on student loans, the New York Times says. "The bill's easy passage - by 356 to 71, with 124 Republicans joining Democrats to support it - underscored the broad appeal of college affordability as an issue." The White House, however, has opposed the legislation, although it hasn't threatened to veto it."

The Wall Street Journal reports that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi "is expected to announce today that she is creating a select committee on climate change and energy independence that will be empowered to hold hearings... Her strategy is to raise the profile of the issue and press for action by early summer. In an interview last evening, Ms. Pelosi said she saw energy independence and climate-change legislation as part of the next phase of the Democratic agenda after passing bills on issues such as the minimum wage and student loans."

Per CNBC's Patti Domm, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke today testifies before the Senate Budget Committee on the long-term fiscal challenges facing the US. Bernanke, she says, will be closely watched for any comments on economic direction and Fed thinking.

USA Today examines how Barack Obama's candidacy might impact African-American voters. "Black voters don't figure largely in the nomination race until early February 2008. The competition moves at that point to South Carolina and Alabama, two states in which nearly half of Democratic primary voters are black."

The New York Times, meanwhile, notes that Obama is only the latest politician promising to be the fresh face to change Washington. The problem is, those folks usually go on to lose. "Think John Anderson, Gary Hart, Ross Perot. How can Mr. Obama avoid a similar fate?"

The Manchester Union Leader reports that the New Hampshire Democratic Party "continues to talk with Hillary Clinton's camp about a date for the party's 100 Club dinner, at which she would be the featured speaker. Nothing's confirmed, but early March appears likely."

The Washington Post looks at the purpose of an exploratory committee. "The legal equivalent of sticking one toe in the campaign waters, an exploratory committee allows prospective candidates to begin raising money for a campaign while they are still deciding whether to take the plunge."

After helping elect Democrats across the country last fall, the pro-gay rights Human Rights Campaign says it wants to play an active role in the 2008 presidential race. Not only does the group want to reach out the Democratic candidates -- and even some Republicans -- it also wants them to reach out. "I'm looking forward to them courting us," president Joe Solmonese tells First Read. Among its concerns, of course, is the issue of gay marriage, as we could see another round of state ballot measures in 2008 to ban the practice. But Solmonese says his group is also concerned about more immediate federal priorities like workplace discrimination and expanding hate-crime laws to include crimes against gays. 

And turning to the down-ballot races, Roll Call says that Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) "might be the most vulnerable incumbent this cycle, although no Republican so far has stepped up to take her on. "'Democrats win in Louisiana by about 5,000 votes and we lost 200,000 people; and most of the people were Democrats,' [a Democratic strategist said]. 'New Orleans is half the size it used to be.'"

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Army Chief of Staff General Pete Schoomaker has told a key House panel that the president's new plan for Iraq stands a "50/50 chance" of success, per one Republican and one Democratic source.

Schoomaker appeared at a closed-door meeting of the defense subcommittee of the House Appropriations Committee to discuss military readiness. He is due to retire as soon as his replacement, General George Casey, is confirmed.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
In addition to Senate Republicans, the White House has invited Republicans on the House Intelligence Committee to discuss Iraq policy. But is it too late? One conservative House Republican says that the feeling among "thinking members" on his side is that "the president has no credibility" left on the subject of Iraq. House leaders, led by John Boehner, have been hosting a series of "listening sessions" with the rank-and-file to determine what can be done to head off a mass exodus on Iraq policy, short of voting with Democrats.

In the meantime, while House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats had planned to simply put the president's new policy into legislative form and have an up or down "vote of confidence" on the plan, they are now expected to do something similar to follow the Senate's lead. The Senate plan, to be announced by Sens. Chuck Hagel, Joe Biden, and Carl Levin later today, more forthrightly states that it is "not in the national interest" to escalate the troop levels in Iraq.  House Majority Leader Harry Reid has come to them and said that he expects 12 Republicans to vote with him and against the president. 

But things are a little less clear on the House side. While Democratic leaders suspect that they could get as many as 60 Republican votes against the president on the "augmentation," relatively few have come out publicly. Best to let the Senate go first, the thinking therefore goes, and once they see their Senate counterparts jumping ship, House Repubublicans will have cover to do the same.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
In what appears to be a Bush Administration effort to persuade skeptical Senate Republicans to support the president's new Iraq strategy, several of them have been summoned to the White House for a meeting this morning with National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley. The invited Republicans included Sens. Sam Brownback, George Voinovich, John Sununu, Lisa Murkowski, and Susan Collins. All of them have expressed at least some misgivings about Bush's plan for sending more troops into Iraq.

Inviting Voinovich, Sununu, and Murkowski is especially key because they sit on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and are being courted by Democrats to sign on to the non-binding resolution against the troop increase. 

From NBC's Huma Zaidi
Liberal MoveOn PAC is launching a new $250,000 TV ad campaign today that attacks Sen. John McCain's position on the war. The ad -- which will run in Iowa, New Hampshire, and nationally -- notes that the Administration's plan to send additional troops to Iraq was actually McCain's idea. "It's John McCain's idea to send tens of thousands more soldiers to Iraq. And to keep them there, with no timeline for bringing them home," the ad goes.

As public support for the war slips, analysts believe McCain's stance could hurt his chances if he decides to run for president.  While other potential GOP candidates like Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani both say they support Bush's plan, McCain is the person (other than Bush) most closely identified with the troop increase -- and thus the subject of MoveOn's new ad.

From Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, Lauren Appelbaum, and Carrie Dann
If there was a collective fasten-your-seatbelts moment in the emerging presidential race, it might have occurred yesterday. First, Barack Obama -- via a video on the Web -- declares he's filing paperwork to form an exploratory committee. Then, just minutes later, an email from Hillary Clinton's office announces that a press conference on the senator's recent trip to Iraq and Afghanistan is being rescheduled until the next day, fueling speculation that she wanted to avoid comment about Obama's decision. After that, we learn the press conference had actually been cancelled the day before (although we never got the heads up), because fellow traveler GOP Rep. John McHugh was ill. And on top of it all, anti-immigration Rep. Tom Tancredo (R) also announces he's forming an exploratory committee. Whew.

Well, Clinton's rescheduled press conference -- with McHugh and Sen. Evan Bayh (D) -- is set for this afternoon. And she previewed her remarks this morning on TODAY, where she stepped up her criticism of President Bush's plans in Iraq. Clinton said she's opposed to sending more US troops and supports placing a cap on the number of them there; she wants to set up conditions on the amount of US funding sent to the Iraqi government; and she believes more troops are needed in Afghanistan. When NBC's Matt Lauer asked her if Obama has enough experience to be president, Clinton replied, "Voters will make these decisions. That's what's so great about our system." Asked when she would make her own decision about running for president, she told Lauer, "I'll certainly come back and talk to you about that when a decision is made."

With less than a week before his State of the Union address, and a day after he admitted to mistakes in Iraq on PBS, President Bush today participates in a roundtable on advances in cancer prevention at the National Institutes on Health. Meanwhile, House Democrats vote on the fifth item of their "Six for '06" agenda: cutting interest rates on student loans. Tomorrow, they conclude with repealing tax cuts for energy companies.

NBC's Ken Strickland says a small bipartisan group of senators -- including Joe Biden, Carl Levin, and Chuck Hagel -- is close to releasing details of the Senate's non-binding resolution on Bush's plan to increase troops in Iraq, and those details could come as soon as today. In addition, sources are hinting the resolution could lay out an alternative plan for a way forward in Iraq. Per these sources, Strickland adds, the language in the resolution has to be crafted in a way to lure Republican senators to support what has been commonly viewed as a Democratic measure. As one person put it, it can't be viewed as a political document used to "embarrass the president," and offering an alternative plan with bipartisan support may be one way to remedy that.

Strickland also notes that the resolution would likely move through Biden's Foreign Relations Committee, where its Democratic supporters could pick up more GOP support. Besides Hagel, the committee also includes other Republicans like George Voinovich, Norm Coleman, John Sununu, and David Vitter, who at a minimum have expressed reservations about Bush's plan. Moving the resolution through the committee process could delay the debate in the full Senate by a couple of weeks, pushing it perhaps into February.

And if that happens, the House might not vote on its version of the resolution until after that. Per NBC's Mike Viqueira, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer said that the current thinking by House Democratic leaders is to allow the Senate to go first. That, Hoyer explained, would be "useful" in demonstrating that there is significant GOP opposition to the president's plan and could convince more House Republicans to jump ship.

Lastly, the Republican National Committee's winter meeting gets underway today, although the real action doesn't start until tomorrow, when House Minority Leader John Boehner speaks at lunch and outgoing RNC chair Ken Mehlman gives his farewell address. On Friday, GOP Sen. Mel Martinez will be formally elected as the next chair (although he's encountering some resistance from some RNC members upset with his immigration views). And on Saturday, White House press secretary Tony Snow speaks at the

Covering the president's interview with PBS yesterday, USA Today says Bush criticized the handling of Saddam Hussein's execution. "Bush said the hanging showed that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's government 'still has some maturation to do' as U.S. and Iraqi forces make a new push to secure Baghdad."

The Washington Post adds that Bush admitted in the interview his Iraq policy "was headed to 'a slow failure' until he changed course last week" -- "perhaps the president's frankest admission that the previous strategy was not working." More: "'I had a choice to make,' Bush said. 'Do what we're doing -- and one could define that maybe a slow failure. Secondly, withdraw out of Baghdad and hope for the best. I think that would be expedited failure. And thirdly is to help this Iraqi government with additional forces -- help them do what they need to do, which is to provide security in Baghdad.'" 

The New York Times: "The interview on PBS was the second shown in three days in which Mr. Bush went into detail acknowledging setbacks and public frustration. 'If you were to take it and put me in an opinion poll and said, "Do I approve of Iraq?" I'd be one of those that said, "No, I don't approve of what's taking place in Iraq,"' Mr. Bush said in the interview. 'On the other hand, I do believe we can succeed,' he said."

The New York Times also covers Sen. Hagel's participation in crafting the Senate's non-binding resolution on Bush's Iraq plan. "Mr. Hagel said the intent of the resolution was not to 'bash the president' or to call for the immediate withdrawal of United States troops from Iraq, but a responsible way for senators to register their opinion on the increase of more than 20,000 additional troops announced by Mr. Bush last week."

The AP observes that the Senate resolution will put many Republicans on the spot. "They will have to decide whether to stay loyal to an unpopular GOP president and risk angering voters disillusioned by the war or buck the party line."

The Wall Street Journal adds, "Much as Democrats are emboldened by November's victories, they also have their own divisions on the issue. And Mr. Bush, whose powers as commander in chief give him immense leverage, has said he has no intention of backing down."