On today's "Six for '06" agenda, the House will vote on (and pass) legislation raising the federal minimum wage from $5.15 to $7.25 over two years and two months. After passage, congressional Democrats and labor leaders hold a press conference to urge the Senate to quickly pass its own minimum-wage hike. Yet over in the Senate, USA Today writes that the Senate Finance Committee "is set to hold a hearing today on possible tax breaks that could be added to the wage bill to attract business support." 

The New York Times: "Senate Republicans have hinted that, without such tax cuts, they will filibuster the measure, a move that the bill's supporters would need 60 votes to overcome." 

The Hill: "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has indicated that he will back the business breaks, remarking last week that a filibuster-proof margin for a stand-alone minimum wage increase may be achievable, but, 'I'm not sure I want to do that.'"

On Friday, House Democrats will turn to their "Six for '06" plank on allowing the federal government to push for lower Medicare drug prices, and USA Today takes a look at the upcoming political over that.

Mitt Romney isn't the only presidential wannabe who has commented on Bush's likely plan for Iraq. In a statement released last night, John Edwards said he opposed an increase in troops and -- once again -- referred to it as "McCain Doctrine." "George Bush's expected decision to adopt the McCain Doctrine and escalate the war in Iraq is a grave mistake," he said. "The new Congress must intercede to stop Bush from stubbornly sticking to the same failed course in Iraq and refuse to authorize funding for an escalation of troops."

And in his Condition of the State address yesterday, outgoing Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack called on Iowa state legislators to pass a non-binding resolution to oppose the Bush Administration's expected plan. "President Bush has ignored the message sent by voters in November and the advice of commanders on the ground at home and abroad by proposing another escalation of troop levels in Iraq," Vilsack said, per a release. "Americans should take action and ask their federal, state and local elected officials to take a stand against this policy."

The Des Moines Register covers Vilsack's speech. "At once reflective and forward-looking, Vilsack's speech was as much a pitch to the most sought-after Democratic activists in the campaign for Iowa's presidential nominating caucuses as it was a symbolic goodbye."

The New York Times writes about the speculation that Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign headquarters will be in Washington, not New York. "Running from a base in Washington would make the most practical and financial sense, Clinton advisers say, and they note that she would have satellite offices in New York and elsewhere. Still, a few advisers and supporters are concerned about the decision, saying it could reinforce her image as a Washington insider."

With the Senate Foreign Relations Committee set to kick off four weeks of hearings on Iraq today, McClatchy says chairman Joe Biden "hopes that the sessions will bolster anti-war sentiment in the country and in the Congress and raise him up among the 2008 Democratic presidential hopefuls on the issue that matters most to the party faithful - opposition to the war."

Yesterday, former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore became the sixth Republican to form a presidential exploratory committee. But: "Skeptics of Mr. Gilmore's presidential move say he is only increasing his profile in advance of a 2008 Senate campaign or a second run at Virginia's governorship." 

A group of Massachusetts conservatives are coming out in support of Romney, with a letter "touting" his "record on the 'profamily agenda,'" the Boston Globe says. "The letter, obtained by the Globe, is meant to be signed by several leading activists, but not everyone who was asked to sign is willing to do so, putting a potential wrinkle in the effort by Romney's defenders to project a united front."

The Los Angeles Times covers Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's (R) State of the State address, in which he called for stripping lawmakers of the power to create political districts, curbing global warming, building more infrastructure in the state. "Schwarzenegger has angered fellow Republicans with his turn to the left, evidenced most recently by his call for expanding healthcare coverage through levies on doctors, hospitals and businesses."

The San Francisco Chronicle describes Schwarzenegger's address last night as "part pep talk, part laundry list of proposals" for the hot-button energy, health-care, and education initiatives that anchor his ambitious 2007 agenda. 

From NBC's Mark Murray
In his Condition of the State address -- his last speech as Iowa governor -- already-declared presidential candidate Tom Vilsack (D) called on Iowa state legislators to pass a non-binding resolution to oppose the Bush Administration's expected plan to increase troops in Iraq. "President Bush has ignored the message sent by voters in November and the advice of commanders on the ground at home and abroad by proposing another escalation of troop levels in Iraq," Vilsack said, per a release. "Americans should take action and ask their federal, state and local elected officials to take a stand against this policy."

Ever since announcing his presidential bid, Vilsack -- who, as a Midwestern governor, has little foreign policy experience -- has been critical about the Iraq war and America's involvement there. "In Iraq, we must act, take our troops out of harm's way, and allow Iraqis to begin providing their own security," he said when he kicked off his presidential campaign.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Just before Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) delivers his speech this afternoon on Iraq at the National Press Club, where he will call for Bush's likely troop increase to Iraq to be subject to congressional approval, at least one member of the Democratic leadership is questioning the "constitutionality" of his proposal. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer told reporters he thinks the president does not need to come back to Congress to authorize surge operations. "I think as a practical matter, the president needs to have the cooperation of Congress in doing that," Hoyer said. "Whether he needs authority is probably, constitutionally, I think there's a question as to whether he has that authority under his Article 2 powers in prosecuting the war as commander in chief. My own view is he probably does."

Hoyer's comments largely echo what Sen. Joe Biden (D) said on Meet the Press on Sunday, and reflect a divergence of views among congressional Democrats on how best to respond to the president's expected proposals.

Liberal MoveOn came out immediately in favor of Kennedy's proposal, and it said it will work to keep pressure on Democratic leaders. Last week, anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan blew up a Democratic leadership presser to demand action on Iraq. The Congressional Progressive Caucus has announced a forum on Friday, featuring George McGovern, titled, "Out of Iraq: A Practical Plan for Withdrawal Now."

Elements within the party have also been debating whether to formally ask for "equal time" tomorrow night after Bush's address, but leaders have tentatively decided against it. Some felt that to do so would step on their message that it is the president who must "articulate" and implement a policy, as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi put it last Thursday. Others feel that a more direct confrontation is in order.

From Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, Lauren Appelbaum, and Carrie Dann
President Bush's Iraq speech, in which he's expected to call for an increase in US troops to Baghdad, is now officially set for Wednesday at 9:00 pm ET. Bush has added two new events to his schedule that take place the next day: 1) a lunch with military personnel at Fort Benning, GA, and 2) his participation in a military demonstration there. The speech now also will come after an Air Force gunship made raids in Somalia yesterday in search of Al Qaeda operatives believed responsible for the 1998 bombings in Kenya and Tanzania. And it will come on the heels of a new USA Today/Gallup poll showing that more than 60% oppose sending more troops into Iraq.

President Bush's previous failures with Social Security, immigration reform, and John Bolton's nomination as UN ambassador all had at least one thing in common: They were doomed by GOP opposition, even if it happened to be just one recalcitrant Republican. And that's why Sen. Gordon Smith's (R) remarks yesterday opposing Bush's likely call for an increase in troops were significant. Per NBC's Ken Strickland, Smith -- who already criticized the war before the holidays -- said US troops should not "shed blood" over issues that "Iraqis must settle." "We cannot want democracy for Iraq more than they want it for themselves," he concluded (although he said he doesn't want to cut funding). GOP Sens. Norm Coleman and Susan Collins also oppose the increase. All three are up for re-election in 2008.

On the other side of the aisle, Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) today delivers his own pre-buttal to Bush's speech at the National Press Club. Per excerpts, he will say, "An escalation, whether it is called a surge or any other name, is still an escalation, and I believe it would be an immense new mistake." And he will say he's introducing legislation mandating that no additional troops be sent (and no additional dollars be spent) unless Congress approves Bush's plan. Kennedy later appears on MSNBC's Hardball.

Now that the big game is over -- Florida crushed Ohio State, 41-14, in last night's college football national championship -- Congress can concentrate its own contact sport. NBC's Mike Viqueira reports that the House Democrats' vaunted "100 hours" of legislative activity officially begins today instead of yesterday, because some members, including Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio, wanted to attend last night's game. Despite his pledge to begin working five days a weeks this year, Viq notes, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer agreed to the one-day delay. "It will make no substantive difference," said Hoyer's spokesperson. "It was done in the interest of comity." (Boehner, a Buckeye fan, might today regret the comity that allowed him to attend last night's game.) The item on today's House agenda is voting on implementing the 9/11 Commission's recommendations.

Finally, we're proud to announce that MSNBC and the South Carolina Democratic Party will host the first debate of the 2008 presidential race on April 26 -- yes, the race is starting this early -- in Orangeburg, SC. MSNBC will air the Democratic debate live from 7:00 pm to 8:30 pm ET, and it will take place at South Carolina State University, the historically black college that's House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn's alma mater. South Carolina NBC affiliates WIS-TV in Columbia, WYFF-TV in Greenville, and WCBD-TV in Charleston will also air the debate.

South Carolina is set to be the fourth Democratic nominating contest of 2008, after Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire -- and it will play an important role in deciding who gets the nomination. In addition, it's the first primary that will take place in the South and that will include a substantial pool of African-American voters. All of the apparent frontrunners in the Democratic field have strengths in South Carolina: John Edwards, who was born in the state, won it in 2004; Barack Obama could be a big draw among black voters; so could Hillary Clinton, whose husband African Americans continue to adore. And it could provide a Tom Vilsack, or a Joe Biden, or a Chris Dodd a chance to pull off an important win. Game on.

Released on the eve of tomorrow night's speech, a new USA Today/Gallup poll shows that respondents oppose the idea of sending more troops to Iraq by a 61%-36% margin. In addition, Bush's Iraq handling is 26% (a record low in the poll), and his overall job approval is 37% (up two points since December). 

Per the Washington Times, "British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Mr. Bush's strongest Iraq war ally, said he will make it clear this week that Britain will not send more troops to Iraq, London's Daily Mail reported. It said Mr. Blair will insist that the United Kingdom will stick to its own strategy of gradually handing over to the Iraqi army." 

The Washington Post reports that Bush yesterday briefed more than 30 GOP senators on his speech. Senators who met with Bush said the president made it clear that he is planning to add as many as 20,000 U.S. troops to help quell violence in Baghdad. They also said the president is arguing that his new plan has a better chance for success than past plans because of a greater willingness of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to commit Iraqi forces against all perpetrators of violence, including Shiite militias." 

USA Today: "Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania…, says it is rare for presidents to turn around public opinion with a single speech. Major addresses, however, can set the stage for public support later if policy changes are working." http

As President Bush and other Administration officials continue to refer to Iraq as a sovereign nation, a New York Times news analysis asks: "Can American officials compel the Iraqis to follow the new American plan?"

Another New York Times article says, "While Democrats find themselves unusually united in their resistance to a troop increase, party leaders are locked in an internal debate over how far to go in objecting to the administration's Iraq strategy." The paper adds that Sen. Kennedy's bill, which would require Bush to obtain congressional approval before sending more soldiers into Iraq, "is the first proposal in the Senate that would prohibit paying for an increase in American troops over their level on Jan. 1."

The Wall Street Journal reports on Rep. John Murtha's (D) alternate plan for Iraq that "would restrict any troop surge if it meant depleting readiness at home or extending the tours of troops now in the war zone." That plan is the "clearest statement yet on how House Democrats may respond to anticipated White House proposals to add 20,000 troops and pump new money into economic programs to help Iraqi civilians." 

The New York Times says that as House Democrats move to pass the 9/11 Commission's recommendations, "some Senate Democrats and the Bush administration object to security mandates in the plan, citing concerns about their cost and practicality… The bill requires that within three years, all cargo on passenger jets be inspected for explosives, as checked baggage is now. The House bill also requires that within five years all ship cargo containers headed to the United States be scanned overseas for components of a nuclear bomb."

The AP adds, however, that "House leaders, who symbolically labeled the bill H.R. 1, were eager to contrast their action on the issue with the Republican-run Congress' failure to approve some of the 41 recommendations the commission. That panel made its proposals three years ago in an effort to prevent a repeat of the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001."

NBC's Strickland reports that the House isn't the only body focusing on the 9/11 Commission recommendations. The Senate Homeland Security Committee holds a hearing today on implementing the recommendations. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg (after dealing with yesterday's gas leak in the city) is scheduled to appear before the committee, as well as the former 9/11 commissioners. 

The Washington Post says the White House is expected to announce that Fred Fielding will succeed Harriet Miers as White House counsel; Fielding served in that same role in the Reagan Administration. "Smooth and soft-spoken yet battle-hardened, Fielding is considered a Republican 'wise man' who Bush aides believe will be able to negotiate compromise without surrendering on the most important priorities."

NBC's Pete Williams says that by choosing Fielding, Bush is turning to someone who has experience in battles with Congress over such issues as executive privilege. Fielding, Williams adds, knows not only the issue of executive privilege but also some of his likely opponents. When he fought earlier battles over congressional demands for documents, one adversary was Rep. John Dingell (D), who will likely be picking up where he left off now that he's once again chairing an important House committee.

After working on the 9/11 Commission recommendations today, the Democratic-controlled House votes to raise the federal minimum wage tomorrow; on Thursday, it does embryonic stem cell research; Friday, it focuses on allowing the government to negotiate lower Medicare drug prices; next Wednesday, it turns to reducing interest rates on student loans; and next Thursday, it votes to roll back tax breaks for oil companies. Add it all up, NBC's Mike Viqueira says, and you've got the "Six for '06."

Regarding stem cells, Reps. Diana DeGette (D) and Mike Castle (R) said yesterday they'll continue to push a similar bill they co-sponsored last year that calls for additional federal funding for embryonic stem cell research, despite news that there's hope in developing stem cells from amniotic fluid instead of human embryos. Viq says DeGette and Castle argue that amniotic stem cells do not have as many applications, and that their measure is still needed.

Per Bloomberg, "Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) is offering a 'grand bargain' to corporate America: Back efforts to narrow the wealth gap between bosses and workers, and the Democratic majority in Congress won't torpedo trade agreements. Business is listening."

Roll Call reports that "Democratic leaders appear to be backing away from a provision included in ethics proposals last year that would require lobbyists to detail their contacts with Members of Congress. The plan was met with stiff resistance from labor and nonprofit groups, which argue that the requirement would be onerous, impossible to apply consistently and could chill contact on politically sensitive topics."

(Meanwhile, Roll Call also writes that Senate Republican Conference Chair Jon Kyl wants to end his party's "K Street Project." "Hoping to eliminate any appearance of impropriety, Kyl wants his operation's work with lobbyists to be seen as more about crafting policy and less.)

The Miami Herald reports that Sen. Bill Nelson has $1.3 million dollars left over from his 2006 campaign against Katherine Harris (R) -- which has upset Democratic candidates who had faced tougher opponents and could have used the money, most notably Florida gubernatorial nominee Jim Davis who lost his to Charlie Crist.

Did anyone else notice John McCain administering the coin toss at last night's college football championship game? Not a bad gig when the two teams hail from the battleground states of Florida and Ohio. (Florida won the toss -- and the game.)

Depending on what happens on the ground, the Boston Globe's Canellos says an increase in troops will have a political impact on Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign. "McCain has long argued for more troops, and has suggested that Iraq would be different today if the White House had heeded his call. But once more troops head into the war zone, McCain's credibility will be on the line… If the situation on the ground hasn't improved, his rivals are certain to hold him at least partially responsible for the flawed strategy."

The man trying to run to McCain's right, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, raised more than $6.5 million during his "National Call Day" yesterday. The Boston Globe notes that the fundraising event, per observers, "was designed to intimidate rivals looking to challenge him for the conservative vote." While the New York Times says it "amounted to a public declaration for the White House, as he marched out with his family for his first major event since leaving the Statehouse… Politically, the display of fund-raising and organizational prowess was intended to put Mr. Romney back on the map after a tough month in which his conservative credentials have come under attack because of questions about his evolving positions on abortion and gay rights." 

The Washington Post: "In some ways, Romney's dynamic day of cash collection is not terribly surprising because of the variety of connections he has built. He has ties to the business world, having been a top executive at the Boston-based consulting firm Bain & Co. After four years as governor and two years as chairman of the Republican Governors Association, Romney boasts deep roots in the GOP giving community."

Hotline reports that Romney will pick up an endorsement from South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint (R) as early as today. "DeMint's endorsement would be Romney's most significant political catch in the pivotal state of South Carolina, where Sen. John McCain has managed to corral the lion's share of would-be GOP endorsers and much of the state party's financial establishment. DeMint's endorsement puts him at odds with Sen. Lindsey Graham, a long-time McCain supporter."

Sen. John Kerry hasn't had any public appearances in two months, and that has some observers wondering whether he'll really run for president again. The Boston Globe: "Kerry's low public profile in recent weeks has fueled some speculation in political circles that the 2004 presidential nominee will forgo another run, in recognition of the difficult task he probably would have in persuading primary voters to turn to him a second time."

The Des Moines Register recaps Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack's final year in office as he prepares to deliver his final Condition of the State speech today.

And Roll Call wonders if Sen. Tim Johnson (D), who is recovering from his collapse last month, will run for re-election in 2008. His health "has put his re-election plans on hold, plunging a key Senate battleground into uncertainty."

The Los Angeles Times covers Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's $12-billion proposal yesterday "that would require all Californians to obtain medical insurance while helping the poorest to afford it… Only Massachusetts has required all residents to carry insurance, but California's larger population of uninsured and poor makes Schwarzenegger's goals much more challenging. To pay for the plan, Schwarzenegger proposed placing new fees and obligations on doctors, hospitals, employers and insurers - all powerful lobbies in Sacramento."

The San Francisco Chronicle says the  proposal "would deliver both pain and reward to the many powerful interests in the health care industry, giving the plan an uncertain future before the Legislature." 

The paper adds that in his State of the State address he's giving today, Schwarzenegger will also announce that he will order a 10% cut in vehicle emissions of greenhouse gases.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), one of the few senators who has publicly announced his support for a "surge" of US troops in Iraq, said at a news conference this morning that any troop increase has to be substantial. "It has to be at least 20,000 to make a difference. And it has to go on long enough to make a difference," he argued, repeating what he told Tim Russert yesterday on Meet the Press. Independent Democrat Joe Lieberman agreed, adding that "the commitment of additional troops should be substantial and it should be sustained... Victory [in Iraq] is still attainable." In a letter they sent to President Bush today, the two senators criticized calls from the congressional Democratic leadership to redeploy troops in four to six months. 

As for recent talk by Democrats toying with the idea of restraining some funding for a troop surge? "Any effort by Congress to control troop levels and cut off funding for those in harms way, I think would run against the advice of the new military leadership on the ground," Graham said. He added that Gens. General David Petraeus and Raymond Odierno -- who both just replaced top military leaders in Iraq -- believe in sending additional troops to Iraq.

But possible president candidate Sen. Barack Obama (D) says he's looking for ways to attach some strings to the funding for a possible increase of troops in Iraq. "My office is now investigating what tools are available to us to condition or restrain appropriations. But what I've also said, I'm not willing to create a situation in which troops who are already in Iraq might be shortchanged in some way," Obama said at an unrelated news conference today. He acknowledged, though, that while he's entertaining the possibility, "It's not clear that can be done."

From NBC's Huma Zaidi
Iowa has the pleasure of being the first nominating contest of the 2008 presidential race, but it's South Carolina that gets the race's first major debate. We are pleased to announce that MSNBC and the South Carolina Democratic Party will host the first presidential primary debate on April 26 from South Carolina State University. The debate, which will air from 7:00 pm to 8:30 pm ET on MSNBC, will also be carried on three NBC affiliates in South Carolina. MSNBC will also carry extensive political coverage leading up to the debate including a debate preview and a special edition of Hardball which will air live from the university.

In a statement, South Carolina State Democratic Party Chairman Joe Erwin expressed his enthusiasm at having the debate at the alma mater of South Carolina's own Rep. Jim Clyburn, who serves as majority whip. "Having worked closely with the top-notch NBC News team in 2004 for the Presidential primary and debate, we know just what kinds of results they can produce when it comes for viewership, voter education and voter participation," Erwin said. "Democratic candidates can rest assured that their campaign messages will be heard by millions of South Carolina voters and NBC viewers across the country," he added.

From NBC's Mark Murray
President Bush's address on Iraq will take place this Wednesday at 9:00 pm ET. The speech, which will be about "the way forward in Iraq," will last about 25 minutes.

From Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, Lauren Appelbaum, and Carrie Dann
With President Bush's big Iraq speech, the House Democrats' legislative blitz, and more maneuvering by the oh-eight candidates all on the schedule, this is shaping up to be quite a week. What we've learned about the speech so far: that it will occur as early as Wednesday, that it will likely call for an additional 20,000 US troops to Baghdad, and that it will also likely recommend spending up to $1 billion on jobs and reconstruction in Iraq.

Of course, Democrats -- along with some Republicans -- oppose the increase in troops. "Surging forces is a strategy that you have already tried and that has already failed," Democratic leaders Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi said in a letter to Bush on Friday. "Adding more combat troops will only endanger more Americans and stretch our military to the breaking point for no strategic gain… We are well past the point of more troops for Iraq." 

Yesterday, Pelosi even raised the prospect that Congress might refuse to fund the additional soldiers in Iraq, but would maintain the funding for the troops already there. And the new Democratic-controlled Congress will have plenty of opportunities later this week to question Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on the particulars of the speech.

After passing their ethics and earmark rules late last week, House Democrats turn to the meat of their 100-hour agenda: implementing the 9/11 Commission recommendations (on Tuesday), increasing the minimum wage (Wednesday), expanding embryonic stem cell research (Thursday), and allowing the federal government to negotiate for lower Medicare drug prices (Friday). Next week, they'll focus on cutting the interest on student loans and ending tax breaks for oil companies. Democratic business and government strategist Billy Moore writes in a memo to clients that although Pelosi and the Democrats called for bipartisanship last week, Republicans oppose most of these measures.

In the emerging presidential race, Mitt Romney (R) -- after filing papers for his presidential exploratory committee last week -- today holds a "National Call Day" at the Boston convention center, where family, friends, and supporters will be making phone calls to raise money. A Romney spokeswoman tells First Read that they're hoping to bring in more than $1 million. Moreover, Sen. Joe Biden (D) said on Meet the Press yesterday that he is running for president, and that he will file paperwork to form an exploratory committee at the end of the month.

And as of this writing, Hillary Clinton has already joined Jesse Jackson for a Rainbow/PUSH Coalition conference in New York. When your chief competition (perhaps) for the Democratic nomination is a popular African American, that's not a bad forum to attend.

The Sunday New York Times wrote that Bush's Iraq speech this week will likely consist of sending as many as 20,000 additional US troops to Baghdad and provide $1 billion to help rebuild Iraq. And today's Times front-pages that Bush's new policy will establish a series of benchmarks that Iraqis will need to meet, including drawing more Sunnis into the political process and finalizing the distribution of oil revenue.  and

Sunday's Los Angeles Times, meanwhile, previewed what is likely to be the thrust of Bush's message: He "believes that the United States still has a chance to stop Iraq from descending into civil war - and, on the other side of the equation, that the consequences of withdrawal would be disastrous. He thinks it's too early to turn primary responsibility for security in Baghdad over to Iraqi security forces, whose performance has been disappointing."

The AP covers Pelosi's remarks yesterday that Democrats will not cut off money for US troops already in Iraq, but would scrutinize the funds for additional soldiers there. And the Boston Globe adds that her words "mark the first suggestion by a Democratic congressional leader that Congress could use its authority over the nation's finances to hasten an end to the war." 

The San Francisco Chronicle noted Sunday that "it is with good reason that Iraq is not on Pelosi's 100-hour agenda… Democrats are nearly unanimous in their support of the mostly domestic agenda, but they do not share a consensus on what to do next in Iraq, beyond a broad sense that the United States must begin to scale back." 

The Washington Post previews the congressional hearings on Iraq that Robert Gates and Condoleezza Rice will attend later this week -- which will likely turn attention away from the Democrats' domestic legislative agenda. 

The Wall Street Journal editorial page applauds Bush's decision to increase the troop level in Iraq. "If the stakes in Iraq are as great as Mr. Bush says -- and we believe they are -- then he should commit whatever forces are needed to achieve success... The paradox is that the fastest way home from Iraq is a bolder commitment now." 

The new operational commander in Iraq, Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, said yesterday "that even with the additional American troops likely to be deployed in Baghdad under President Bush's new war strategy it might take another 'two or three years' for American and Iraqi forces to gain the upper hand in the war," the New York Times writes. 

The potential 2008 candidates weigh in on the "surge" with competing Washington Post op-eds. On Sunday, John McCain made his argument again for sending more troops into Baghdad, while General Wesley Clark today writes that more diplomacy is the way to go.

The Los Angeles Times is the latest to write that no other person besides President Bush "has more to lose than McCain" by sending additional troops to Iraq.

And for those keeping score, The AP notes that since September 11, "Congress has approved about $500 billion for Iraq, Afghanistan and other terrorism-fighting efforts." 

After meeting with the president of the European Commission, Bush appears at the White House with bipartisan members of Congress to commemorate the fifth anniversary of the controversial No Child Left Behind Act. Speaking of, USA Today looks at how the law has changed America's schools. 

Bob Novak writes about Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's consideration of raising the cap on Social Security payroll taxes, as part of a way to make the system solvent. "Presidential adviser Karl Rove attended conservative activist Grover Norquist's weekly meeting Wednesday and offered to bet anyone $5 that there would be no increase in the payroll tax base. But Bush himself has not unequivocally ruled out such a move."

A coalition of Christian conservative groups is urging President Bush and Congress to strike a compromise on immigration. The group -- Families First on Immigration -- is sending a letter to Bush today outlining its proposal, which would allow "amnesty" for all illegal immigrants in the country but would end birthright citizenship, reports the Washington Times. "Religious liberals have long been outspoken advocates of amnesty and more immigration, but Christian conservatives have been torn between biblical admonitions to both the rule of law and charity toward strangers."

The Miami Herald adds that Bush's "hopes of securing a comprehensive immigration overhaul have brightened considerably in the new Democratic-controlled Congress, but resistance from organized labor - one of the Democratic Party's most loyal constituencies - could complicate those efforts."

Pelosi also said yesterday that Democrats might consider raising taxes on the wealthiest Americans, to pay for middle-class tax cuts. "'As we review what we get from ... collecting our taxes a reducing waste, fraud and abuse, investing in education and in initiatives which will bring money into the treasury, it may be that tax cuts for those making over a certain amount of money, $500,000 a year, might be more important to the American people than ignoring the educational and health needs of America's children.'"

Those remarks came as a new study by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that families earning more than $1 million saw their federal tax rates decline more sharply than other group, the New York Times reports. "Based on an exhaustive analysis of tax records and census data, the study reinforced the sense that while Mr. Bush's tax cuts reduced rates for people at every income level, they offered the biggest benefits by far to people at the very top… The study offers ammunition to supporters and opponents of Mr. Bush's tax cuts, which are all but certain to touch off a battle between the president and the Democrats who just took control of Congress."

On Friday, Roll Call reports, House Democrats adopted rules that would create term limits for committee chairmen. Not surprisingly, "several senior Democrats questioned the new constraints and suggested the matter will be reconsidered."

Roll Call also writes that the House Democrats' corporate-jet ban -- as written -- could actually bar members from traveling in their own private planes or on all commercial aircraft. "'As the rules are written,' said FAA spokeswoman Alison Duquette, 'it seems that no Member can fly on any non-government airplane.'"

Roll Call's Stu Rothenberg says that Democrats have the early advantage of winning the White House in 2008. "Only once in the past 50 years, in 1988, has a political party won a third consecutive four-year presidential term. That's not an accident. It's the result of inevitable voter fatigue and impatience, as well as the public's (and media's) desire for periodic change."

On Meet the Press yesterday, Joe Biden said: "I am running for president… I'm filing exploratory committee before the month is out… I'm going to be Joe Biden, and I'm going to try to be the best Biden I can be. If I can, I got a shot. If I can't, I lose."

Sen. Sam Brownback, who set up a presidential exploratory committee last month, will spend the next couple of weeks traveling to Ethiopia, Kuwait, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. And Bill Richardson, the AP says, is in Sudan this week to meet with the country's president, Omar al-Bashir, in hopes jumpstarting peace negotiations and getting help to the embattled area of Darfur.

The Boston Globe covers Romney speaking to influential Christian conservatives and GOP donors last night in Georgia. "He said he has grown and could be trusted to keep the social positions he now holds, which include an opposition to abortion and support for a federal constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage." More: "Though Romney has talked about his past moderate views in recent interviews, his decision to directly address his transformation to a social conservative here illustrates how important he thinks it is to persuade Republicans that he's made a genuine conversion."

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger today unveils a plan to provide more health insurance to children in his state. However, the Los Angeles Times notes that Schwarzenegger will propose "a major rollback of the state's welfare system this week, including a cutoff of aid to tens of thousands of children whose parents do not meet minimum work requirements or are in the country illegally… It was met immediately with resistance from Democrats, who expressed bewilderment that the governor would attempt to cut welfare aid to children in the same week his administration is expected to move forward with a plan to expand health insurance to many of the same children."

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner and Huma Zaidi
Newly elected House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have sent a letter to President Bush expressing their opposition to sending additional troops to Iraq. "Surging forces is a strategy that you have already tried and that has already failed.  Like many current and former military leaders, we believe that trying again would be a serious mistake," Pelosi and Reid write in the letter.  The two go on to call for a "phased redeployment" of troops over the next four to six months.

The letter comes in advance of Bush's highly anticipated speech on Iraq next week during which he is expected to call for a "surge" in forces. Earlier this week, anti-war activist Cindy Sheehan and other protestors disrupted a Democratic news conference to call on the new majority party to address the war, which was absent from their agenda for the first 100 hours.

Not all Democrats are opposed to a surge, however.  Senate Armed Services Committee chair Carl Levin, a key player in this debate, has said that he can see his way clear to a temporary surge, with certain conditions.

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner and Mark Murray
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) -- who filed paperwork earlier in the week to form a presidential exploratory committee, but who hasn't yet officially announced he's running -- has a big day scheduled on Monday, when he and his supporters will hold a "National Call Day." Per a Romney spokeswoman, it's a daylong event at the Boston convention center, where family, friends, and supporters will be making calls to raise money.  The spokeswoman says they're hoping to bring in more than $1 million.

As we and others have written before, Romney is trying to position himself as the Establishment conservative alternative to Arizona Sen. John McCain (and perhaps also former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani). And the amount of money Romney can raise will determine, in part, just how strong of an alternative he is. 

From NBC's Kevin Corke
Now that he's announced changes to his civilian national security team, President Bush will continue his outreach to members of Congress today by welcoming members of the Senate to the White House Cabinet Room. The discussion will center on option in Iraq, but there will be no briefing on any decision on the way forward there. The group will include moderate Democrats like Sens. Ben Nelson and Mary Landrieu. Bush press secretary Tony Snow says there will be more meetings like this one in the coming days.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray and Huma Zaidi
A day after the new Democratic-run House passed its ethics-and-rules package, it now turns its attention to a practice that some in Washington embrace while others deplore: earmarks, a/k/a pork.  The measure coming up for a vote today would require more transparency for members sponsoring earmarks and assurances that they and their spouses wouldn't personally benefit from the projects.  In addition, the House will vote on the Democrats' "paygo" provision, which would mandate that any new spending be offset by corresponding cuts.

From the infamous "bridge to nowhere" to the scandal that led to the jailing of former Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R), the abuse of earmarks became one of the many subplots that led to the GOP's losses last November.  But earmarks have been a bipartisan affair.  They were at the center of allegations that forced Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) to step down from the House Ethics Committee, and newly minted Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid late last year had to parry charges, which his office denied, that he inserted a new Nevada bridge which could have benefited a real estate investment of his.

Despite the scrutiny and controversy they've received, earmarks have their pluses.  In a legislative system that's increasingly hobbled by intense partisanship and seems to produce fewer and fewer results, the spending projects provide members with a fairly easy way to deliver to their constituents and boost their chances of winning re-election, although "bringing home the bacon" last year wasn't the winning message for Republicans that it has been in the past.  As we wrote yesterday, widely publicized accounts of lawmakers profiting through earmarks lately have brought the practice, long a source of outrage for good-government groups and the media, much more public disdain.  In April 2006, an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll asked which of several items being considered by Congress at that point should be their top priority to address before leaving for recess.  Thirty-nine percent chose prohibiting earmarks -- more than any other issue listed.

In the long run, however, the Democrats' paygo provision could perhaps be more frustrating for a party whose members want to provide health insurance to the uninsured, spend more on education, and cut taxes for the middle class.  And at this point, the Democratic leadership doesn't sound eager to roll back some of Bush's tax cuts, which could provide offsets for new spending.  Republicans seem to have spooked Democrats on the issue, after Democratic leaders and most of the party's presidential candidates clamored for a rollback in 2003 and 2004.

Building up to his much-anticipated Iraq speech next week, President Bush is sending new military commanders to CENTCOM and Iraq, his Iraq ambassador to the United Nations, and his director of national intelligence to the State Department, among other moves.  He'll announce some of these moves in a press conference this morning.  NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that per senior White House officials, the Iraq speech is in "fairly early drafts."  As Bush preps for the speech, in which he's expected to call for a "surge" of US troops, Sens. John McCain and Joe Lieberman address the neoconservative American Enterprise Institute today.  Both support an increase in troops; anti-war MoveOn will protest outside the event.  A group of senators also will meet with Bush at the White House today.

And during the midterm election campaign, we wrote about the contrast in approaches between President Bush and Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), who pulled off a remarkable comeback in California after taking his own "thumping" when a handful of initiatives he sponsored went down to defeat.  As Hill Republicans struggled to win re-election under the oppressive weight of Bush's poll standing and the unpopular war in Iraq last year, Schwarzenegger undertook a course correction so sharp during his own re-election campaign that he outflanked his Democratic opponent on the environment and the minimum wage. 

The contrast between California and Washington continues today as Schwarzenegger delivers an inaugural address in which he'll call for centrism and getting things done: "Centrist does not mean weak...  It means well-balanced and well-grounded.  The American people are instinctively centrist . . . so should be our government," he's expected to say.  He'll follow the speech on Monday by proposing to overhaul the state's health-care system, an issue that neither party in Washington is venturing to touch despite it being a top domestic concern for voters.  When it was pointed out that the term-limited Schwarzenegger has the luxury of not worrying about getting re-elected, one aide reminded us that the "state knows the power of recall."