From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The House Judiciary Committee this afternoon has voted against the terrorist detainee bill favored by President Bush and most Republicans. But this doesn't mean that the bill is dead in the House. The measure has been reported out of committee "unfavorably" -- the vote was 20 against and 17 in favor -- but it still heads to the House floor where passage by the entire body is expected next week. Recall that the same bill passed the House Armed Services Committee by a vote of 52-8 last week. The Judiciary Committee, however, is much more polarized ideologically.

Still, three Republicans defied the leadership and the president in the committee vote. They are Reps. Louie Gohmert of Texas, Bob Inglis of South Carolina, and Jeff Flake of Arizona (who has become a McCain-like maverick).

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Some House Republican leaders are openly calling on Rep. Bob Ney (R) to quit Congress before his term expires on January 3, even as others grumble about a "double standard" being applied by Democrats. Ney's fellow Ohioan Deb Pryce told reporters this morning that she "believes very strongly that Bob Ney should resign" because he has "betrayed the trust" of the people of Ohio. Pryce chairs the House GOP Conference and, as First Read noted this morning, she herself is in a contested race for re-election. At the same presser where Pryce made her feelings known, Rep. David Dreier, the Rules Committee chair, also indicated he thinks it's time for Ney to step down.

At the same time, there is quiet grumbling among some Republicans about what they see as Democratic attempts to force Ney out, thereby depriving him of health and other benefits even as he undergoes alcohol rehab. They also see a double standard, noting that Ney has not officially appeared in court to make enter his plea and that no action should be taken against him until that event, now scheduled for October 13. Between now and then, they argue, Ney should be afforded the same benefit of the doubt that is accorded to embattled Rep. William Jefferson (D). Jefferson, he of the alleged $90,000 in bribe money found in the icebox, has not publicly admitted to wrongdoing.

So far, Democratic leaders have been content to sit back and watch the Ney case explode in GOP faces, and have not issued any public calls for him to leave Congress.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House and Senate Republican leaders will head to the White House this afternoon for a sitdown with the President. On the agenda, according to House leadership aides, is the end game.  Specifically, how are they going to get around the current impasse on detainee legislation and deal with the NSA warrantless surveillance legislation, defense spending, various border enforcement bills, tax extenders, and the minimum wage -- all in time to leave next Friday for the duration of the election cycle?

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Election day is 48 days away...  The Senate may be facing an either/or choice on detainee trial and treatment policy -- either a standoff that produces no bill, or a compromise.  Per NBC's Ken Strickland, Majority Leader Bill Frist says Sen. John McCain (R) and his allies don't have a filibuster-proof majority to pass their bill.  Translation: McCain's group may have more than 50 votes needed for final passage, but if a White House supporter decided to block or filibuster that bill, they wouldn't have the 60 votes needed to overcome it. 

On the other hand, it's pretty clear the White House couldn't muster 60 votes for their bill, either, Strickland says.  And even as Frist criticized the version drafted by the three Republican holdouts yesterday, he said he wants "to see if there is language that we can all agree to, before taking it to the floor." 

As Strickland reported here yesterday, it's possible if not likely that the bulk of the GOP's national security agenda could wind up being considered and voted on in the final few days before Congress departs for recess, since it also looks like the earliest that the Senate will consider legislation on the NSA's warrantless surveillance program is next week.

In the latest stage of Democrats' effort to keep the heat on the Administration over the Iraq war, as opposed to debating them on their preferred battlefield of the broader war on terror, the Senate Democratic leadership today "will announce a major new national Democratic initiative to conduct oversight of the White House and its management of the war," per the release.  "Democrats will investigate policy failures and put forward policies to give our troops and the Iraqi people the best chance for success."  The probes will be conducted by the Senate Democratic Policy Committee, which means they'll most likely happen without participation by Senate Republicans. 

A top Senate Democratic aide tells First Read that whereas many of the DPC's hearings to date have focused on alleged waste, fraud, and abuse in the Iraq contracting process, the new sessions being announced today are "designed to focus on the conduct and execution of the war."  Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid is expected to say that the forums will not be used "to launch political attacks.  We want to find what happened in Iraq, so we can find a policy that gives our troops and the Iraqi people the best chance for success."

The Bushes head back to Washington, but not before the President meets with the head of the Palestinian Authority to call for peace in the Middle East, and Mrs. Bush appears at the Clinton Global Initiative conference to announce a new public-private partnership to improve global health.  The White House announced yesterday that the Presidents of Pakistan and Afghanistan, who had been scheduled to visit with Bush in Washington separately over the next several days, will now meet with Bush altogether on September 27 to "provide the three leaders an opportunity to discuss further cooperation in enhancing the trilateral relationship."

On the domestic front, Deval Patrick, who ran the civil rights division of the Clinton Justice Department, is now the Democratic nominee for governor of Massachusetts.  Patrick hopes to become the state's first African-American chief executive and only the second elected in US history after Virginia Gov. Doug Wilder (D).  Republican nominees Ken Blackwell of Ohio and Lynn Swann of Pennsylvania both face uphill battles in their efforts to beat Patrick to the punch.

Got calendar? 

The New York Times reports that the White House has dropped its insistence that the Geneva Conventions be redefined.  "The developments suggested that the White House had blinked first in its standoff with" McCain and colleagues Lindsey Graham and John Warner.  "But few details were available, and it was not clear whether a compromise was imminent or whether the White House had shifted its stance significantly." 

Gen. John Abizaid, the top American commander for the Middle East, said yesterday that the US military "is unlikely to reduce forces in Iraq before next spring because the current contingent of more than 140,000 troops is battling sectarian violence that could prove 'fatal' to the country if not arrested." 

The New York Times front-pages that senior US and Iraqi officials "are beginning to question whether Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki has the political muscle and decisiveness to hold Iraq together as it hovers on the edge of a full civil war." 

Presidential candidate and Sen. Joe Biden (D) walks the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington through his already announced proposal for a way forward in Iraq.  A Biden aide says he'll seek to clear up some mischaracterizations of Biden's proposal as a "partitioning" of Iraq.  Biden blasted Bush yesterday, after Bush's UN speech, for having "no strategy for success" in Iraq.

The Los Angeles Times says of Bush's UN speech, "The president's address was one of his broadest foreign policy speeches since his second inauguration last year.  But unlike that address, when he spoke of spreading democracy, Bush's words and tone Tuesday reflected the trouble he had faced enacting his agenda." 

The Boston Globe finds Bush's remarks "notable because some of his most pointed comments have focused on Iran's misdeeds, including a 2002 speech that called Iran part of an 'axis of evil.'  Bush's speech yesterday did not mention sanctions."

Bush's decision to meet with Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas is intended to be a leading example to Israel and other nations to begin peaceful negotiations with Palestinians, per the AP. 

As Bush prepares to call for a lasting Middle East peace, former President Clinton tells the Financial Times that the situation there "has become so bad that a fresh peace initiative is a strong likelihood within the next two months."  He also "said that the objections of three prominent Republican senators" to Bush's proposals on detainee trials "had 'confused' the Republican strategy" for the midterm elections.  "'Their strategy has been complicated by the fact that [these senators] believe in the rule of law, you know, it's kind of confusing, it's made life a bit tough,' he said laughing."   

Channeling First Read, the Washington Post says Laura Bush is having quite a high-profile week "for a first lady praised... for her seeming preference for eschewing controversy and for embracing a more traditional role."  Mrs. Bush's "sustained presence at the center of the world stage is unprecedented, which White House aides are promoting in the belief that her emerging profile can only help bolster President Bush's sagging popularity." 

Addressing representatives of the nation's auto dealers in Washington yesterday, Vice President Cheney said again that declining public approval won't cause the Administration to end its commitment to the war in Iraq, NBC's Salim Ishaq reports.  Cheney also: repeated that Bush would base his decisions on troop levels on military necessity, not on timelines or on political pressure; described the United States as a nation that keeps commitments; said Osama bin Laden believes Americans have "no stomach" for fighting and that he'll be proved wrong and the United States will win the war on terror; called the Administration's detainee trial and treatment policy and the NSA warrantless surveillance policy essential to winning that war; and cited recent indicators of a strong US economy.  One thing Cheney didn't really talk about: the auto industry.

"Oil posted the biggest decline in four months yesterday after Bush said he will give negotiations a chance to prevent sanctions against Iran, the world's fourth-biggest oil producer," Bloomberg notes.  "Crude also dropped further today on expectations that a government report will show U.S. heating oil and gasoline stockpiles rose." 

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has forged a deal for regular talks with China about "the long-term issues arising from China's emergence as a leading economic power," says the Financial Times.  "The initiative dovetails with longstanding Chinese ambitions to elevate the US-China relationship into one unencumbered by the many difficult issues that divide them, such as piracy of intellectual property, the swelling trade imbalance and, to some extent, human rights." 

The GOP House campaign committee hastily called an off-camera briefing for reporters yesterday, most likely because of the new Gallup survey showing some of the best polling news the party has seen for some time, and committee chair Tom Reynolds guaranteed to reporters that Republicans will hold onto control of the House. "We will be in the majority the next Congress. You can count on that." 

The forthcoming New York Times magazine, meanwhile, profiles Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman and examines how, these days, "the lofty ideals and bold ambitions of Mehlman and [Karl] Rove" to grow the Republican party among new voting blocs "often seem in direct conflict with the short-term survival instincts of Republicans who want nothing more than to get past the next election.  House Republicans sabotaged Bush's immigration plan, ignoring Mehlman's warnings about the damage that an enforcement-only immigration bill could do to the party's long-term growth among Hispanic voters...  He spent much of July trying to manage the fallout among black leaders after House conservatives delayed a routine extension of the Voting Rights Act."  And Jewish activists are "fearful that the White House's Iraq policy had empowered Iran."  The profile also sets up the RNC's "72-hour" get-out-the-vote machine as the "fire wall" against serious losses.

A state judge in Georgia yesterday struck down a law requiring voters to show photo ID, saying it violated the state constitution and couldn't be enforced.  The ruling "was a significant setback for the Republican-led effort to enforce a photo ID requirement at the polls in Georgia…  In October, a federal judge blocked an earlier version of the law, which would have required registered voters who lacked an acceptable photo ID to pay to have one made.  Legislators quickly rewrote the measure to make the ID cards free.  Supporters of the law say the cards are necessary to prevent voter fraud." 

The Washington Times reports that the House "is expected to pass a bill today that would require voters to present photo identification to participate in national elections," which the paper says is "the latest in a slew of border-security measures House Republicans are pushing before the November elections.  Democrats oppose the legislation, which presents another sticking point for the Senate on immigration reform."  The bill is called the "Federal Election Integrity Act." 

Sponsor Henry Hyde (R) "calls it a safeguard against voter fraud."  "Democrats say that the move to impose a national photo ID requirement is part of a Republican effort to discourage participation by low-income and minority voters likely to back Democratic candidates - a charge GOP lawmakers strongly deny.  In today's House debate, some Democrats intend to argue that the bill's requirement that voters provide proof of citizenship starting in 2010 would create a hurdle for some that effectively amounted to a 'poll tax.'" 

The latest round of FEC reports shows that the RNC has "more than triple the cash" as the DNC.  "The RNC raised $7.6 million in August and has $39 million in the bank, compared with the DNC's August donations of $6.7 million and a balance of $11 million in the bank."  Democrats are more competitive financially with Republicans at the House and Senate campaign committee level. 

The Hill reports that with control of the House potentially being a close call on election night, both sides are already looking beyond that point to the ranks of moderate members who might be persuaded to switch parties. 

The Wall Street Journal reports from California to makes its point about how many states aren't seeing any competitive House races this cycle because of redistricting that favors incumbents.

The New York Times front-pages that from California and Illinois to Massachusetts and Maryland, GOP candidates for governor "are playing up their liberal positions on issues including stem cell research, abortion and the environment...  Governing Republican and campaigning Democratic is not a new technique…  But political experts say that the strategy is particularly pervasive this year, as Republicans seek to distance themselves from an unpopular president and to respond to what is widely recognized as polarization fatigue among many voters." 

In CALIFORNIA, the state's most powerful public employee unions have united together for a common cause -- to make sure Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) doesn't get re-elected, the San Francisco Chronicle notes.  The effort could cost the unions as much as $25 million and "comes at a critical time for Democrat Phil Angelides, whose campaign has languished much of the summer." 

The Hartford Courant says that based on his ads, CONNECTICUT Democratic Senate nominee Ned Lamont appears to still be wooing Democrats instead of the independent voters he'll arguably need to put himself over the top on election day. 

After defeating a former head of the NAACP, and now facing an African-American Republican challenger, MARYLAND Democratic Senate nominee Ben Cardin is doing some crucial black outreach. 

The MASSACHUSETTS gubernatorial race could turn into a nationally watched race, notes the Boston Globe.  Deval Patrick is the "first African-American to win a major party's nomination for the top job in the state."  His opponent, Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R), would be the state's first female governor.  "Patrick now faces a tough, seven-week campaign that the state's Democratic leadership hopes will return the governor's office to the party's control for the first time since 1990."

Patrick "won every county from the mountains to the sea, racking up victories even in more conservative Democratic strongholds," adds the Globe. 

RNC chair Ken Mehlman campaigns for GOP House candidate Michele Bachmann in swing state MINNESOTA today.

In NEW JERSEY, Tom Kean, Jr. (R) has a 48%-45% lead over incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D) in a Quinnipiac poll, the AP writes. 

A day after showing Ted Strickland (D) leading Ken Blackwell (R) by 21 points in OHIO's gubernatorial contest, another Quinnipiac poll finds the Senate contest there to be much tighter, with Sherrod Brown (D) leading Sen. Mike DeWine (R), 45%-44%.  Also, the Columbus Dispatch reports that Ohio State football fans didn't appreciate the GOP-backed Progress for America airing a hard-hitting TV ad showing September 11 images during a game last week.  "Buckeye fans... got a look at the spot, and then some gave station president and general manager Tom Griesdorn an earful." 

VIRGINIA Sen. George Allen (R) "said for the first time publicly yesterday that he has Jewish ancestry, a day after responding angrily to an exchange that included questions about his mother's racial sensitivity and whether his family has Jewish roots."  Allen said in a statement yesterday that "he was proud to have recently discovered that his grandfather, an anti-Nazi resistance fighter in North Africa, was part of a well-known Jewish family...  Allen's religious background has not been a campaign issue.  But when [a] reporter asked Allen about it Monday, the exchange triggered a flood of critical commentary on Internet blogs," demanding that Allen clarify his family history. 

House GOP Conference chair Deborah Pryce yesterday called for Rep. Bob Ney (R) to resign.  Pryce faces a tough challenge as she seeks re-election in Ohio, where Republicans are burdened not only by their ties to an unpopular president, but also to an exceedingly unpopular, scandal-plagued governor -- and now to Ney. 

Roll Call notices that an unusual number of members seem to be going from the House to the big house lately.  Ney will "become the fourth Member to be locked up for criminal behavior, and... may not be the last.  Ney will join ex-Reps. James Traficant (D-Ohio), Duke Cunningham (R-Calif.) and Frank Ballance (D-N.C.), all of whom currently are being held in federal correctional facilities...  Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.) could join this group of disgraced Members soon."

The Hill reports that former DNC chair and party fundraiser extraordinaire Terry McAuliffe is telling acquaintances that he'll chair the next Clinton presidential campaign.  "McAuliffe told The Hill yesterday that Clinton has not made a decision on running for president." 

Sen. Barack Obama (D), fresh off of speeches about how his party needs to talk tougher on national security and the role of religion in politics, gives a speech on energy independence today in Washington as part of liberal MoveOn's policy speech series.  Next week, potential presidential candidate and Sen. Russ Feingold (D) gives a speech on reforming the nation's election system in Philadelphia.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Regarding Tom Reynolds' guarantee (see below) that Republicans will keep control of Congress, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokeswoman Sarah Feinberg tells First Read: "I thought Tom Reynolds was smarter than to make sweeping predictions 48 days out from the election, but perhaps not. Either way, it's the DCCC's job to affect races, not to predict them. It basically comes down to this: At this point in the election cycle, I'd rather be us than them."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The price tag on the massive Capitol Visitors Center project is likely to go up yet again, according to figures supplied by the Government Accountability Office to congressional officials yesterday. Per congressional sources, the new estimate of the total cost of the project will be between $580 and $600 million. The last GAO estimate -- released in February of this year -- placed the cost at $555 to $584 million.

The CVC has two primary functions. First, it is expected to make the Capitol itself more secure by providing an entry checkpoint at a significant remove from the building. Second, the hope is that it will enhance the experience of the millions who visit each year with exhibitions, an amphitheater, cafeterias, and other amenities. Constructed completely underground, it is the biggest addition to the Capitol since the 1850's, when the current House and Senate chambers, as well as the signature dome and Rotunda, were added to the building.

The CVC was originally projected to come in at $265 million when ground was broken back in 2002. Since then, construction delays and requests by members of Congress for additional space adjacent to the CVC have driven costs upward. Accusations of mismanagement have been directed at the Architect of the Capitol and others involved in managing the project.

In addition, the GAO will also report that the CVC won't open for business until October 2007 at the earliest, five months later than their last estimate. Problems with emergency evacuation plans are cited as a significant factor here. Both the increased cost and delayed opening date are expected to be announced at a Senate hearing this Thursday.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Obviously buoyed by the recent Gallup poll now showing Bush's approval rating at 44% and Republicans even with Democrats in the generic ballot test, House GOP campaign committee chairman Tom Reynolds guaranteed to reporters at an off-camera briefing this afternoon that Republicans will hold onto control of the House in November. "Reports of our demise are greatly exaggerated," he said. "We will be in the majority the next Congress. You can count on that." To bolster that claim, Reynolds said that Republicans are on the offense in a handful of districts (although they remain on the defense in most others); that they have the money (now with $36 million in the bank); and that their message is the winning one: "All politics is local."

During the Q&A at the briefing, Reynolds fielded several questions regarding Ohio Rep. Bob Ney's (R) refusal -- so far -- to resign from Congress, even though he recently pleaded guilty to corruption charges. He replied that Ney hasn't been on the ballot in more than a month, and that he won't be an issue in other races across the country. Pressed by another reporter if Ney's refusal to resign damaged the GOP's and Congress' credibility, Reynolds said, "I stand by what I've said" -- in that Ney won't impact other races. Pressed again by a third another reporter to directly comment on Ney's refusal to resign, he answered: "The gentleman is in alcohol rehab, and I don't know if any of my colleagues have talked to him since he checked himself in."

From NBC's Ken Strickland
At this writing, it looks as though the earliest the Senate will consider legislation on the NSA's warrantless surveillance program is next week, the final week of business before the Congress heads home for midterm elections. And with delicate negotiations over detainee trial policy still ongoing and possibly prolonged until next week, the GOP's whole national security pre-election agenda could get crunched into a few final days.

Last week, the Senate Judiciary Committee passed three different bills on the controversial NSA program, including the White House-sponsored bill. But since the committee has never been briefed on the program, the Intelligence Committee has asked to look over all of the legislation to see if changes are warranted (and Majority Leader Frist has agreed to withhold Senate consideration until the week of the 25th).

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
As President Bush prepares to address world leaders at the United Nations later this morning, the Senate Republican holdouts are considering an "alternative draft proposal" on convening military tribunals for detainees which the White House sent to Capitol Hill last night, per NBC's Ken Strickland.  Messrs. Graham, McCain, and Warner could respond as early as this afternoon, but more likely later this week.  It's unclear where the Administration may have made some concessions, Strickland says, but its desire to redefine the Geneva Conventions has been the biggest sticking point for the three Republicans.

White House advisors seemed anxious to appear proactive in reaching a compromise.  "We are eager to find a resolution, so just as we've been willing over the past several weeks, we are proposing new ideas and solutions so that Congress can take the next legislative step," one of them told NBC's Kelly O'Donnell.  Advisors refused to get into specifics about what was changed, saying the alterations are "narrow in scope."

Also unclear is what the new proposal will do to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's timetable and terms for the debate over this issue.  In addition, Strickland notes, Frist also must figure out when to start debate over the White House bill that authorizes the NSA's controversial surveillance program.  Frist appears on MSNBC's Hardball today at 5:00 pm.

White House aides have billed Bush's address to the UN General Assembly as the culmination of his latest series of speeches intended to bolster public support for the war in Iraq as central to the broader war on terror, and say he will tout progress in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The White House is also back to talking up Bush's "Freedom Agenda" (their caps, our quote marks), which he introduced at the start of his second term.  Before his speech, Bush meets with the President of France and the UN Secretary-General.  Afterward, he takes part in a handful of meetings, including one with the President of Iraq. 

Vice President Cheney is out in public today at several ceremonial events.  Although the White House has delayed meeting with representatives of the Big Three automakers until after the elections, Cheney addresses the National Automobile Dealers Association's legislative conference in Washington this morning.  It may be a safer photo op for the Administration than to be seen with the automakers when their employees are losing jobs and benefits and the government doesn't seem inclined to bail them out.  Cheney also swears in the new chair of the National Transportation Safety Board and makes remarks at the Jesse Helms Center "salute" to retiring House International Relations Committee chair Henry Hyde (R).

And it's primary day in Massachusetts and Washington -- two of the last states to hold their nominating contests this year (Hawaii holds its primary on Saturday, while Louisiana's is on election day).  The only noteworthy race today is the gubernatorial match-up in Massachusetts between Democrats Chris Gabrieli, Deval Patrick, and Tom Reilly.  A recent Boston Globe poll found Patrick -- who's trying to become the state's first African-American governor -- leading the other two, although other polls have shown Gabrieli in a stronger position.  The winner will face Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R), who gets her shot now that Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is retiring and running for president.

Because of Romney's decision not to run for re-election in this deep blue state, Democrats see this as one of their best gubernatorial pick-up opportunities.  "Any of the three Democrats would have the edge going into the general election," says Nathan Gonzales of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report.  Polls in Massachusetts open at 7:00 am and close at 8:00 pm.  Polls in Washington state open at 10:00 am ET and close at 11:00 pm ET.   

Got calendar? 

The new Gallup poll shows Bush's job approval rating at 44%, his highest in that survey in a year.  Democrats are tied with Republicans on the generic congressional ballot test among likely voters.  "The new poll found likely voters more prone to vote for candidates who support Bush on terrorism, 45%-28%, and evenly divided on those who support and oppose Bush on Iraq.  More than a quarter said Iraq is their top concern this fall.  For the first time since December 2005, a majority of people did not say the war there was a mistake; the split was 49%-49%.  Bush's terror-fighting techniques drew mixed reviews." 

Not surprisingly, the White House got some questions yesterday about the chances of Bush and Iranian President Ahmadinejad winding up in the same room.  A Bush spokesperson noted that they aren't keeping track of Ahmadinejad's schedule, but added he isn't scheduled to speak until 6:00 pm and Bush isn't scheduled to be there at the time.

The Houston Chronicle says that Bush will urge "skeptical" world leaders to join his campaign against Islamic radicalism and Iran's nuclear program.  "Bush is hampered by an increasingly unpopular occupation of Iraq, and he is expected to face an uphill battle in persuading the other leaders to follow his vision for spreading democracy throughout the Middle East." 

Also in his speech today, Bloomberg says, Bush plans to name "former aid chief Andrew Natsios as special envoy for Sudan." 

On detainee policy, the New York Times notes that when Bush talks about the need for clarity for "'alternative interrogation techniques,'" what he really wants "is latitude so the interrogators can use methods that the military is barred from using under a recently issued Army field manual.  Despite his call for clarity, the president has been vague in talking about the alternatives." 

McCain supporter Colin Powell tells the Washington Post in an interview that "he decided to publicly oppose the Bush administration's proposed rules for the treatment of terrorism suspects in part because the plan would add to growing doubts about whether the United States adheres to its own moral code." 

According to the Financial Times, McCain added another former secretary of state to his list of supporters yesterday: George Shultz. 

The AP: "In a further hint of problems for the administration, House officials said their chamber was postponing a vote planned for Wednesday on a bill mirroring Bush's proposal.  Republican officials... said they have encountered resistance and were no longer certain they had enough votes to push the measure to passage through the GOP-run House." 

A day after First Read did it, a couple of papers consider the implications of the detainee policy fight for McCain's presidential bid.  "McCain's willingness once again to confront Bush raises questions about how he will position himself toward the Republican Party's conservative base, which he has aggressively cultivated over the past year," says the Washington Post. 

The Los Angeles Times also says McCain risks losing support among GOP conservatives, but also that "the high-profile battle could burnish the Arizonan's credentials among admirers who have been concerned about his moves to court the GOP establishment."  Also: "As McCain's profile in the interrogation debate has risen,... Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, widely seen as a leading competitor for McCain's centrist appeal, has forcefully endorsed Bush's position." 

More from the AP: "'Maverick status is looked upon as a strength in Congress, but a maverick in the White House is not looked upon with great admiration from our folks,' Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, said Monday." 

Senate Democrats plan to call today for an investigation into the hiring practices of the Coalition Provisional Authority now that "published reports" have shown that "loyalty to the Bush administration trumped qualifications like language skills in hiring staff in Iraqi Reconstruction efforts," which Senate Democrats charge is "more evidence of Bush cronyism and incompetence."

USA Today: "Gasoline prices continue to tumble briskly, dropping Monday to a U.S. average of less than $2.50 a gallon for the first time since March.  Service stations even are beginning old-fashioned gas wars to avoid losing customers to price-cutting rivals." 

Per the Hill, Wal-Mart has consulted with the League of Women Voters in crafting voter registration and education materials for its 1.3 million employees as part of a massive campaign to combat Democratic and union charges that it's unfriendly to labor.  Several Democratic presidential candidates in particular have attacked the retail giant lately. 

 

Republican incumbent Rob Simmons and Democratic challenger Joe Courtney debated for the first time last night in New London.  MSNBC.com's Tom Curry reports that Courtney was much clearer about removing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld from the Pentagon than he was about getting US soldiers out of Iraq.

Courtney did not support a cut-off of funding for the Iraq deployment, even as Simmons seemed to try to goad him by saying, "If you were running for president, you might have some chance of changing that presidential policy, but in Congress the tools that we have to change the policy are cutting funding for the troops.  I hope you're not suggesting a policy change that we would not support our troops..."

Courtney shot back that he wasn't talking about cutting off funding for US troops.  Praising a proposal by Sen. Joe Biden (D) for three autonomous regions for Iraq and an exit of US troops by the end of 2007, Courtney said Biden is "not just talking about a targeted date for withdrawal...  Americans have some responsibility... to make sure the violence is going to stop and we're going to leave a somewhat stable situation behind."  A few minutes later, he added another assurance: "No one is talking about walking out and leaving the situation in an irresponsible way."

But Simmons, a Vietnam veteran and a former CIA agent, also sounded defensive about his support for the war and unhappy that more US troops have not yet been ordered home, Curry says.  Simmons said his question to the President was, "When we see do our forces stand down?"  He said, "I believe we're close to that point."

Earlier in the day, at the opposite end of the state in the 5th district, Sen. John McCain came to Danbury yesterday to stump for Rep. Nancy Johnson, his classmate from the House Republican class of 1982, who faces a serious challenge from Democratic state Sen. Chris Murphy. 

Curry points out that McCain's presence in Danbury was a reminder that the Congress has so far failed to pass legislation to address a crisis for many cities: the cost of illegal immigrants.  Highlighting the urgency of the illegal immigration problem was one Republican in attendance, Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton. 

Danbury has largest population of Brazilians of any place in the United States; many of them are visa overstayers and hence illegal, Boughton said.  "It has frustrated residents" that Congress has been unable to agree on a solution -- either McCain's proposal, which would permit illegal immigrants to eventually qualify for citizenship, or the House-passed enforcement-only bill.  "Nancy voted yes on the House bill so voters pretty much don't see her as the issue," Boughton said.  He added that he opposed McCain's approach because it permits illegal immigrants to pay a fine to acquire legal status.  "I don't think we can reduce permanent residency and ultimately citizenship to paying a fine. It should be worth more than that," the Mayor said.

The Christian Science Monitor reviews the seemingly Democratic-leaning landscape of the governors races, which isn't to say that Republicans don't have their opportunities. 

CONNECTICUT Democratic Senate nominee Ned Lamont is focusing on universal health care, hoping it will help broaden his campaign beyond just his opposition to the Iraq war, the Hartford Courant says.  "Lamont... is part of a wave of Democratic candidates who think health care is the next galvanizing issue."  Another Hartford Courant story says McCain, who campaigned in the state yesterday for Rep. Nancy Johnson (R), plans to endorse GOP Senate nominee Alan Schlesinger.

After 522 days of campaigning and $25 million spent, voters in MASSACHUSETTS will decide today who will take on Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) in the gubernatorial race.  Per the Boston Globe, the three-way race between Democrats Deval Patrick, Tom Reilly and Chris Gabrieli may be affected by key factors such as turnout (which is expected to be low) and recent polls. 

In NEW YORK, the state Democratic party has identified its enemies for all the statewide offices as President Bush and Gov. George Pataki (R) -- not their actual opponents, the New York Times says.  "They are so confident of outright victory that they are now shooting for bigger game - an electoral rebuke of Mr. Bush and Mr. Pataki." 

Per a new Quinnipiac poll, Ted Strickland (D) leads Ken Blackwell (R) in OHIO's gubernatorial race by 21 points, Bush's approval in the state is 40%, and GOP Gov. Bob Taft's is a paltry 14%.  The Columbus Dispatch, meanwhile, writes up a debate between Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) and challenger Mary Jo Kilroy (D), who are competing in one of the top House contests this year.  "Kilroy frequently linked Pryce to unpopular Bush administration initiatives, from the Iraq war to the proposed partial privatization of Social Security." Pryce defended "Bush on national security and taxation while distancing herself from the president on Social Security reform and the national deficit, which she called an embarrassment." 

In PENNSYLVANIA, the state Supreme Court granted the Green Party's candidate for Senate, Carl Romanelli, an emergency appeal "that could secure his place on the November ballot, a prospect that's being fought by Democrats who see his presence as a threat to Treasurer Bob Casey's challenge to Sen. Rick Santorum," the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. 

Per the Times-Leader, Vice President Cheney raised between $135,000 and $180,000 at a fundraiser for Pennsylvania Rep. Don Sherwood yesterday.  A spokesperson for Sherwood said Cheney's speech "consisted of two main themes: The importance of having a Congress that supports winning the war on terror and a Congress that won't raise taxes and will support tax cuts that have already been passed." 

One day after their Meet the Press debate focused on national security matters, the VIRGINIA Senate candidates faced off over domestic issues in a second debate.  Even so, the Washington Post says, Iraq and President Bush continue to dominate the race. 

In WASHINGTON STATE, Democratic Sen. Maria Cantwell's anti-war primary challenger isn't expected to win, but is asking voters "to 'Vote no on war'" today, calling Cantwell's "October 2002 vote in favor of the Iraq war... worthy of electoral punishment" -- the Washington Times. 

House Democrats don't plan to call on Republicans to expel Rep. Bob Ney (R), who has now forfeited all his committee assignments.  Roll Call says that if Democrats were to call for Ney's expulsion, it would draw attention to their own scandal-plagued colleague, Bill Jefferson, who's at the center of -- although not convicted of wrongdoing in -- a federal bribery probe. 

Although Democrats' "culture of corruption" charge against Republicans has faded, the Wall Street Journal says "widespread voter dissatisfaction with Congress has the electorate in a less forgiving mood.  This campaign season also is marked by a number of close contests, making politicians vulnerable to charges of ethical lapses -- and raising the political stakes if the charges stick."  The Journal notes that "[e]thics and personal controversy last figured this prominently" in 1994. 

The New York Daily News notes that the FBI has had to increase the number of squads investigating lobbyists and lawmakers "because so much wrongdoing is being uncovered," according to the FBI assistant director.  "Two years ago, only 400 agents worked on public corruption cases.  Now, 615 agents nationwide - including 30 in New York - are trying to nail public servants for betraying the public trust in 2,200 ongoing cases." 

In an hour-long speech at NYU law school yesterday, Al Gore (D) called dealing with global warming "a moral issue," the Washington Post writes.  "Gore noted that few politicians of any party are willing to step into the 'no politician zone' of tough steps needed to address global warming." 

Sen. John Kerry (D), addressing Pepperdine students yesterday, called for a "national commitment to reduce the number of abortions" -- echoing sentiments expressed by another presidential contender, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D).  The Boston Globe says Kerry's speech was the "most extensive attempt to describe his religious views and define where he stands on so-called 'values issues' since President Bush defeated him for the presidency in 2004." 

From NBC's Mark Murray
Without a doubt, the most closely watched ballot measure on Election Day will be the referendum over South Dakota's abortion law, which bans all abortions except those needed to save the mother's life -- a direct challenge to Roe v. Wade at a time when the Supreme Court has two new conservative justices. And the South Dakota group that's trying to get the law repealed, Campaign for Healthy Families, has launched its first TV ad. "South Dakotans agree: Honor and protect human life. Reduce the number of abortions," the ad goes. "But should a woman who's the victim of rape or incest be left with no option? What about the mother whose health would be seriously threatened? ... It just goes too far."

Meanwhile, in the New Jersey Senate race that has made Democrats increasingly worried about whether they can hold onto the seat, the campaigns for Bob Menendez (D) and Tom Kean Jr. (R) are sparring over whose surrogate is worse. Earlier today, Menendez and Joe Wilson -- of the CIA leak fame -- held a press conference assailing a fundraiser that White House adviser Karl Rove is holding for Kean. "It is no wonder that Rove is here to campaign for Tom Kean Jr.," Menendez said. "Karl Rove demands absolute allegiance to George Bush, and Tom Kean Jr. is more than happy to give it." However, the Kean camp issued a press release blasting Wilson's appearance with Menendez. "Menendez welcomes discredited and disgraced Joe Wilson to New Jersey," the release said.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Fifty days until election day...  President Bush's aggressive posture in his Friday news conference, which aides called an attempt to better explain the White House's position on detainee trials and treatment, may not have had its intended effect.  The GOP heads into a second week debating the issue amongst themselves, detracting from their effort to keep the heat on Democrats over security issues going into the midterm elections.  The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, taken in the days leading up the Bush's primetime speech on September 11, indicated that effort was at least somewhat effective, up until that point, in nudging Bush's job approval rating and other standard measures of the political climate in a positive direction for Republicans.

Further fueling interest in the GOP split over detainee policy is that the debate between Bush and Sen. John McCain -- among others, to be sure -- is laden with overtones of Bush's legacy and McCain's presidential prospects.  The former Vietnam POW clearly feels very personally and passionately about this issue; he told NBC's Chip Reid last Friday that he considers it "a matter of conscience."  But to the extent that the debate undercuts Republicans' prospects in November, it may inadvertently wind up helping McCain.  The conventional wisdom among political analysts is that a midterm election that results in serious losses for Bush's GOP will boost McCain's chances of winning the party's nomination because more Republicans will decide they need to nominate a candidate who represents a change from the status quo. 

Arguments can be made in the other direction, too -- that McCain's dispute with Bush over detainee policy might cost him  Republican presidential primary votes.  And some analysts don't think the current debate will wind up hurting Republicans much at the polls in November.  NBC political analyst Charlie Cook notes that as long as Topic #1 is detainee policy instead of the unpopular war in Iraq, that's a plus for the GOP.

McCain and his team seem to have the presidential race in mind.  The Financial Times reported late last week that McCain "told aides he was willing to risk the presidency, because of possible loss of support from Republican lawmakers and voters" over his stance on this issue (see Friday's Security Politics section).  The issue also very publicly distances McCain from Bush on one aspect of the national security debate, while his support for Bush on the unpopular Iraq war gets less notice. 

Although the involved parties hinted over the weekend that a compromise might be possible, this debate is expected to dominate the discourse on Capitol Hill as Congress returns for its second-to-last week in session; members are scheduled to leave town for the rest of the election cycle on September 29. 

As his party struggles with an issue that will affect how the United States is viewed around the world, President Bush heads to the United Nations.  Today he drops by his wife's first international conference, a forum on global literacy.  He then does a bunch of bilats (i.e., bilateral meetings) with various world leaders.  He caps off the day by headlining an estimated $1.4 million Republican National Committee fundraiser at a private home which is, guess what, closed to the media. 

Tomorrow brings Bush's big address to the United Nations General Assembly, which aides have billed as the capstone of his series of speeches casting Iraq as central to the overall war on terror.  He'll also meet with the President of Iraq.  But the White House campaign continues past tomorrow: On Friday, Bush meets with the President of Pakistan, and next week he meets with the President of Afghanistan.

Got calendar? 

USA Today previews tomorrow's dueling speeches by President Bush and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.  "Their speeches may be the closest the two come to a debate," after Ahmadinejad challenged Bush to one a few weeks ago.  Bush's speech will be his sixth before the General Assembly. 

Bloomberg says Bush "comes to the United Nations... with limited diplomatic leverage to block the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea, largely because of fallout from the Iraq war."  Tomorrow, he "will touch broadly on the nuclear disputes involving Iran and North Korea...  [He] also plans to raise the issues in private talks...  In the speech, the president also will seek tougher measures to halt massacres in Sudan and abuses in military-run Myanmar." 

The Washington Times notes that Bush, "who once said the United Nations was teetering on the brink of irrelevancy and demanded it show some backbone, has increasingly turned to the organization for international problem-solving...  Critics say Mr. Bush has been forced to become more multilateral after bucking the world body by invading Iraq, but administration officials assert that the United Nations remains a useful tool to spur foreign leaders to step in on major issues." 

The Boston Globe says Republicans are encouraged by recent polls, even though "[w]idespread concern over the war in Iraq continues to harm Republicans' prospects, and some of the same polls that showed an uptick for Bush also showed voters favoring a Democratic-controlled Congress by substantial margins.  In addition, Republicans' plans to emphasize their unity on security issues in the final weeks of the congressional session were sidetracked last week by" the internal GOP debate over detainee policy. 

White House National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, "making the rounds of Sunday talk shows, said the administration believes it can clarify interrogation rules without amending the Geneva Conventions," observes USA Today. 

But the AP notes that "the president's national security aides and holdout Republican senators aren't saying how they can reconcile deep differences over limits on CIA interrogations of suspected terrorists...  As a result, it is unclear if Congress quickly can pass legislation authorizing aggressive methods against terrorist detainees, as President Bush wants."

The New York Daily News: "The White House is fishing for a compromise to end an embarrassing standoff." 

"Senate Republicans concede that very public spats over their own bills aimed at preventing terrorism and prosecuting enemy combatants have hampered their election-year strategy to emphasize national security issues, but Senators and party operatives say the GOP can still salvage the message before voters go to the polls," per Roll Call.

When McCain visited New Hampshire over the weekend, the New York Times says, he was greeted by an editorial from the conservative Manchester Union-Leader challenging him on his position on detainees. 

The controversial film that depicts President Bush's assassination will hit US theatres before the end of the year -- and possibly before election day.  "The movie imagines a point in the Bush administration's not-too-distant future in which civil rights are further eroded and mistrust of Middle Eastern enemies runs high. [The filmmaker] has said he made the film not as a political statement but to illustrate how the United States has changed since 9/11." - USA Today