With just one week left before Congress adjourns, the New York Times lists its unfinished business: At best, just two of the 11 spending bills will pass; no budget was enacted; comprehensive immigration and lobbying overhauls won't become law; and plans to cut the estate tax and increase the minimum wage failed.  "'It is disappointing where we are, and I think Republicans need to be upfront about this,' said Representative Jack Kingston, Republican of Georgia and a member of the House leadership.  'We have not accomplished what we need to accomplish.'" 

And the Times has the latest report that Christian conservatives may not be as enthusiastic and engaged as Republicans hope. 

A top House Democratic aide tells First Read that House Democrats plan this week to "cause some trouble on the floor to highlight the critical issues the do-nothing, rubber-stamp Congress are failing to address before they adjourn."

Bloomberg reports on House and Senate campaign committee chairs Rahm Emanuel and Chuck Schumer's aggressive fundraising efforts, while Roll Call has Democratic operatives at 527 organizations fretting openly that a severe drop-off in funding from big donors between 2004 and 2006 will hamper their ability to affect races and gain seats this cycle. 

CALIFORNIA gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides (D) said yesterday that if he wins, he'll immediately call on President Bush to withdraw the state's National Guard units from Iraq.  "A spokeswoman for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's campaign, Katie Levinson, said in a statement that Angelides' remarks 'are just more of the same irresponsible political rhetoric.'" 

On Saturday, incumbent Daniel Akaka (D) defeated challenger Rep. Ed Case, 55%-45%, in HAWAII's Senate primary. 

MASSACHUSETTS gubernatorial contenders Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) and Deval Patrick (D) will face off in the first of several debates tonight.  The Boston Globe says "tonight's forum could be a critical moment in the campaign... because it will be the voters' first chance to see the candidates side by side."  Healey trails Patrick in a recent poll and has "the difficult task of asserting she has the experience to be governor, yet distancing herself from Romney-Healey administration missteps and disavowing Governor Mitt Romney's recent shift to the right." 

Another participant in tonight's debate, independent candidate Christy Mihos, is running a TV ad that is "so graphic that he plans to air it only between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m.," reports the Boston Globe.  The ad, entitled "The Big Dig, Explained," "depicts cartoons of Massachusetts politicians whose heads disappear between their legs when Mihos asks them a simple question: How did the Big Dig get $12 billion over budget?" 

The New York Daily News writes that some NEW JERSEY Democrats feel that Gov. Jon Corzine (D) made a mistake when he appointed Bob Menendez (D) to fill the rest of his Senate term -- now that Menendez is struggling in his race against Tom Kean Jr. (R). 

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) campaigns with Mike Arcuri, her party's candidate for their top pick-up opportunity in NEW YORK, in Binghamton.  Laura Bush is campaigning for Arcuri's opponent Ray Meier.

Looking again at PENNSYLVANIA's Senate race between incumbent Rick Santorum (R) and Bob Casey Jr. (D), the New York Times wonders whether the GOP's cash advantage, its vaunted get-out-the-vote effort, and the White House's bully pulpit will be enough to save Santorum from defeat.  "A poll for The Philadelphia Inquirer, released yesterday, showed Mr. Casey with a 10-point lead." 

TEXAS independent gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman has a problem: His speeches frequently contain misstatements of facts.  "In a wide-ranging interview last week, Mr. Friedman acknowledged his tenuous grip on the basic facts of state government.  In one sense, it perfectly fits his campaign's theme" that he's a non-politician.  "But with the campaign's final weeks on the horizon and questions already raised about his history of racially insensitive comments, Mr. Friedman could have trouble showing voters he's serious about being governor and qualified for the job." 

Having barely recovered from his "macaca" comment, VIRGINIA Sen. George Allen (R) now faces a Salon.com report in which former college football teammates of Allen's say he "repeatedly used an inflammatory racial epithet and demonstrated racist attitudes toward blacks during the early 1970s."  One former teammate "told Salon that the future senator gave him the nickname 'Wizard,' because he shared a last name with Robert Shelton, who served in the 1960s as the imperial wizard of the United Klans of America."  Other former teammates say they don't recall Allen demonstrating racist views.  The article notes that efforts to obtain comment from the Allen camp were unsuccessful. 

A series of presidential trial heats for the Des Moines Register finds that former New York City Rudy Giuliani and Sen. John McCain are the top picks in Iowa.  Both "sweep four Democratic rivals in a set of hypothetical matchups involving a total of eight candidates.  However, former U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina gives them a close battle in the Iowa Poll of likely voters."  Top Democratic contender Sen. Hillary Clinton "goes winless against four Republicans.  Democrats Edwards, 2004 presidential running mate John Kerry, and Vilsack each draw a 2-2 split." 

Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D), whose showing indicates he faces "stiff competition," was in New Hampshire this past week, where he connected with voters, the Register notes. 

As her husband was attacking "right-wingers" on Fox, the Sunday Los Angeles Times was reporting that Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) was the focus of Rev. Jerry Falwell's private assurances to other leading Christian conservatives that their voters would be more motivated to turn out and oppose Clinton for president than they would be to vote against the devil himself. 

Next up in liberal MoveOn's "Progressive Vision" speech series is an address by Sen. Russ Feingold (D) in Philadelphia, titled "Restoring Democracy."  Per Feingold's office, his speech will cover a range of topics from "protecting our rights and freedoms, to campaign finance and election reform, to standing up to the administration's extraordinary attempts to expand executive power."  He'll give the speech at the National Constitution Center.

Sen. Evan Bayh and Gov. Bill Richardson are in New Hampshire today.  Over the weekend, Bayh repeated the Democratic argument that Iraq is not central to the war on terror in commenting on the NIE.  "The United States needs to begin the process of leaving Iraq by stabilizing the country so more focus can be placed on Afghanistan and Iran, he said." 

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Rep. Ed Markey (D) of Massachusetts is not a fan of the compromise reached by Republicans on the treatment and trial of detainees. Markey calls it "legal mumbo jumbo" designed to "obscure the fact that the CIA will continue to be allowed to use torture..." As best we can tell, Markey is the first Democratic member to publicly state his opposition to the deal. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's initial reaction to the deal was positive and, at this writing, there's no reason to think the deal is in trouble.

From NBC's Mark Murray
On Monday, President Bush will attend a fundraiser (closed to the press) for Ohio Sen. Mike DeWine (R), who's running in one of the most competitive Senate contests this year. But before that visit, the DeWine campaign has launched a brand-new TV ad highlighting his independence. "Senator DeWine is 'courageous,' a 'problem solver,' and an independent thinker,'" the announcer says in it.

The DeWine ad is a direct response to an earlier TV ad the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee began airing, which played up DeWine's ties to Bush. Set to the tune "The more we work together, together, together...," that ad states: "Mike DeWine likes working together with George Bush."

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Election day is 46 days away...  Everyone on the GOP side is trying to claim victory after yesterday's conclusion of Deal or No Deal on detainee trials and treatment.  The compromise allows President Bush's CIA interrogation program to proceed without undermining the Geneva Conventions in the eyes of the three Senate Republican holdouts.  The breach that had threatened GOP unity over its best campaign issue has been healed, and those congressional Republicans who were balking get to look like they don't march in lockstep with President Bush.

The next stage of the Administration's extended campaign to spotlight the broader war against terror are a series of meetings with the leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan, which will take Bush through Wednesday.  As with the detainee legislation, though, these meetings aren't completely unproblematic.  At this writing, we're awaiting Bush's joint press availability with President Musharraf, at which the issues the Administration hopes to spotlight may take a back seat to Musharraf's claim to 60 Minutes that the United States threatened to bomb Pakistan "back to the Stone Age" just after September 11 if Pakistan didn't cooperate in a campaign against the Taliban.  Coincidentally, Musharraf is scheduled to release his memoirs next week, and they'll likely contain a more detailed account of his charge.

If the midterm election debate is centered on Iraq and the war on terror, both parties are also beginning to emphasize particular domestic issues heading into the final six weeks of the campaign.  Republicans are zeroing in on taxes, seizing on would-be Ways and Means Committee chair Charlie Rangel's assertion that he can't think of a single Bush tax cut he'd renew, which fits nicely with their simultaneous effort to motivate their base by reminding them who would chair the committees in a Democrat-run House.  Democrats are focusing on the Medicare prescription-drug benefit, timed to the start of the coverage gap or "donut hole," and Social Security.

Vice President Cheney is in Pennsylvania today, fundraising for the highly endangered Sen. Rick Santorum.  Cheney's visit is expected to funnel about $200,000 into Santorum's campaign, less than the $300,000 he raised for Santorum back in October.  We're reminded of how, late last year when Santorum was trailing opponent Bob Casey (D) by double digits, Democrats accused the embattled Republican of distancing himself from Bush, whose own poll numbers were dangerously low.  They argued that Santorum's absence from a Bush event in the Keystone State at the time proved that Bush was a liability for GOP candidates on the ballot.  Bush, in the state to deliver a speech on terror, made the visit just days after his 11-hour campaign appearance with Republican gubernatorial candidate Jerry Kilgore failed to boost Kilgore over the top in that race.

Things might be looking up for Santorum and for Bush, relatively speaking, now that Santorum has narrowed Casey's lead to the single digits, and Bush's job approval rating is ticking upward.  NBC political analyst Charlie Cook says in his weekly National Journal column that Bush's average approval rating, from eight national polls taken in September, has increased to 41%.  "The bad news for the GOP is that 41% is still lousy.  It's 1 point below where President Clinton was at this stage in 1994...  Perhaps it is apt to say that for Republicans, the outlook remains bad but is no longer horrific."  The White House that likes to say it doesn't pay attention to polls has issued a press release this morning touting Bush's rising job approval rating.

NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that Bush advisors say they have the first two weeks of October "nailed down" as far as the President's campaigning on behalf of Republicans.  They say that Bush will "very vigorously" stump at larger events and that more of those will be public.  Until now, many have been held at private residences with no access for the media.

Also today, the Clintons wrap up his Global Initiative (read: shadow United Nations) summit in New York: The Senator takes part in a panel on women and economic opportunity, and the former President delivers the closing address.

Got calendar? 

"While the deal" on detainee trials and treatment "is subject to further discussion with House Republican leaders, it resolved the most contentious issues in the Bush administration's high-profile drive to gain congressional backing for its detainee policies before Congress adjourns next week," says the Washington Post. 

The Los Angeles Times casts the deal as a concession by Bush to the Senate GOP dissidents. 

"At least one key Republican, House Armed Services Chairman Duncan Hunter of California, expressed reservations about the restrictions on secret evidence.  He said he fears the government won't be able to convict terrorism suspects without it," USA Today reports.  "Democrats appeared likely to back the compromise." 

"Most Democrats have taken their cues from McCain, a former prisoner of war who was tortured while in captivity in North Vietnam, and have been content to allow Republicans to fight with one another over the issue of detainee treatment," says the Boston Globe. 

The Wall Street Journal points out that the White House still faces a headache in their desired NSA warrantless surveillance legislation.  "And privately, Republicans admit that completing the second measure before lawmakers go home for the elections will be difficult." 

Venezuelan President Huge Chavez got some laughs and applause yesterday at a Harlem Baptist church when he "compared Bush to cowboy movie icon John Wayne."  Chavez also called Bush "'an alcoholic and a sick man.'"  And he "announced that Citgo, the U.S.-based refining arm of Venezuela's state-run oil company, plans to more than double the amount of heating oil it is making available under the program to 100 million gallons this winter, up from 40 million gallons." 

Chavez's remarks brought a rebuke from the local congressman, Charlie Rangel (even as Bush walloped Rangel indirectly in Florida over taxes, we'd note). 

The Los Angeles Times says its new poll with Bloomberg shows that "Americans have become more optimistic about the economy, and President Bush is getting some of the credit...  Seven weeks before the midterm elections, the economy remains voters' primary focus.  Among registered voters, 32% listed the economy and jobs as the most important election issue, followed by the war in Iraq (21%), immigration (17%) and the war on terrorism (13%).  In follow-up interviews, those polled cited a variety of reasons for feeling better about the economy, including unemployment at a low 4.7% nationally, lower gas prices this month and an interest rate freeze by the Federal Reserve." 

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said yesterday that she doesn't think the recent plunge in gas prices is due to price manipulation, NBC's Mike Viqueira reports, but Pelosi also said the root cause doesn't really matter: "We are still at the mercy of a Saudi prince that the President was kissing."  And she asserted that Democratic prospects for November won't be affected by the price drop.

The Washington Times says Bush in Florida yesterday "came armed with a series of statistics about Democrats' records, which he said voters should remember when they head to the polls."  Leading Democrats said they welcome the chance to debate Republicans on the economy.  The story notes that Bush's "tax message yesterday was overshadowed by the deal his administration reached with key senators to approve a CIA interrogation program." 

The New York Times says Bush's argument signaled a new phase of the White House's campaign strategy.  "'If they get control of the House of Representatives, they'll raise your taxes, it will hurt our economy, and that's why we're not going to let them get control of the House of Representatives,' the president said… 'I want you to remember the last time they had control of the United States Congress back in 1993, they passed a massive tax increase.'" 

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is pleased with how his talks went in China, but now he has to sell Congress on them, including Democrats who have labor's interests in mind six weeks before the midterm elections.  A senior Administration official predicts to the Financial Times that "'we will be spending a lot of time on [Capitol] Hill over the next week.'" 

The GOP-controlled House yesterday passed bills "designed to crack down on gang members and smugglers of immigrants.  The legislation also encourages state and local police officers to act as immigration agents…  Democrats dismissed the border-security push as a stunt by Republicans unable to follow through on President Bush's demand for a comprehensive immigration overhaul.  'This is all for show,' Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid… complained." 

The Wall Street Journal has dueling op-eds from the national party committee chairs.  Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman leads his with the most recent foiled London terror plot.  "Democratic leaders are saying Iraq is a diversion from the war on terror, that we should be more focused on defending the homeland.  But again and again, the Democrats have proposed weakening our defenses."  He adds, "It would be foolish not to acknowledge the challenges Republicans face this election cycle...  has been close to a century since Republicans have held the White House and the House of Representatives for eight straight years.  Winning four elections in a row doesn't happen that often." 

While Hill Republicans take heart from some recent national polls, the AP raises the possibility that "Christian conservatives, traditionally a reliable Republican constituency," are "unhappy that the GOP-led Congress and President Bush haven't paid more attention to gay marriage and other 'values' issues" and "may stay home on Election Day or even vote Democratic." 

And the Wall Street Journal notes that the normally GOP-friendly US Chamber of Commerce is hedging its bets by backing a dozen Democrats in House races this cycle.  "The chamber's move mirrors a subtle but significant shift across the business community, which has begun anticipating that the Republican majorities in Congress could shrink, if not collapse." 

The Washington Times wonders whether recent signs that the Administration has gotten its act together are due to new White House spokesperson Tony Snow. 

Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean leads his Wall Street Journal op-ed by saying, "We need a Democratic Congress to fight the war on terror -- and to end the war on America's families" over economic issues, which Dean then details.  "Democrats offer America a new direction in fiscal policy, for the middle class, and in the war in Iraq." 

The DNC kicks off its first African-American Leadership Summit in Detroit today, where the party's "new direction for America" and get-out-the-vote efforts in the African-American community will be discussed.  Among the participants at the two-day summit will be DNC chair Howard Dean, Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, Sen. Debbie Stabenow, House Judiciary Committee ranking member John Conyers -- and Star Jones Reynolds. 

GOP Senate nominee Katherine Harris of FLORIDA got a little love yesterday when the visiting President urged people at a fundraiser for gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist to "support" Harris, who was also in attendance. 

Not counting Louisiana's free-for-all on election day, HAWAII tomorrow becomes the last state in the union to hold its primaries.  And unlike past races in the Aloha State, one contest actually bears watching: the Democratic showdown between Sen. Daniel Akaka and his challenger, Rep. Ed Case.  As we all know, the last time a Senate Democrat faced a serious intraparty challenge was last month, when moderate Joe Lieberman lost to anti-war Ned Lamont.  But in this case, Akaka is being challenged from the right on the Iraq war -- Akaka favors a US troop withdrawal by 2007, while Case opposes that.  Other issues in the race are age and ethnicity: Akaka is 82 and Native Hawaiian, while Case is 53 and white.  Public polls show Akaka with a comfortable lead, yet no matter who wins tomorrow, Democrats are assured of holding this Senate seat in November.  Polls open at 1:00 pm ET and close at midnight ET.

ILLINOIS Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) acknowledged yesterday that "he helped get a state job for a friend whose husband wrote a $1,500 check to the governor's daughter, but said it was 'ludicrous' to suggest the job and gift were connected," the Chicago Tribune says. 

Presidential candidate and former Sen. John Edwards campaigns for top Democratic candidates in MINNESOTA tomorrow.

NEW YORK Sen. Hillary Clinton has agreed to debate her GOP foe twice this fall.  "The face-offs will be almost back to back.  The first will be hosted in Rochester by cable news station NY1 on Oct. 20.  The next will be two days later, Oct. 22, at WABC's Manhattan studios." 

The Rochester Democrat and Chronicle reports that some area residents are not happy about Cheney's visit to fundraise for Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) as they were when Bush visited there in March.  "Kuhl, who is seeking a second two-year term, defended the visits, saying it's an opportunity for the heads of the country to spend some time in Rochester and learn about the area.  But he said the main reason for Cheney's visit is to raise money for his campaign." 

The Columbus Dispatch reports on how GOP Rep. Bob Ney's guilty plea on corruption charges is playing in his OHIO district.  Voters "are deciding whether Ney's downfall should play a role in judging the candidates vying for his job," but "there is no doubt his behavior has disgusted many."  

With a significant lead in his own race, PENNSYLVANIA Gov. Ed Rendell (D) delivered checks to Democrat Bob Casey's Senate campaign yesterday.  "It's a contrast to the 2004 Senate race, when Democrat Joe Hoeffel struggled to pry cash out of Rendell donors loyal to the governor's friend, Republican Sen. Arlen Specter." 

The New York Times writes up the entertaining gubernatorial race in TEXAS, where recent polling has suggested the contest could be a four-way free-for-all.  "Will President Bush's home state stay in the Republican column, where it has been since Mr. Bush won in an upset in 1994?  Or will it fall to a Democrat or independent - even a cigar-toting country music satirist touting his political virginity and running on the slogan, 'How hard could it be?'" 

In a story profiling Bill Hillsman, the ad guru behind Kinky Friedman's gubernatorial campaign, the Dallas Morning News notes that some past remarks by Friedman could prove challenging for a campaign that was relying on Hillsman to paint a softer picture of him.  Hillsman's "task was made all the more difficult this week with revelations of insensitive remarks from Mr. Friedman's past, including a 1997 newspaper interview in which he said 'I applaud teenage suicide' and his use of the n-word in a comedy act 26 years ago at a Houston club... Mr. Friedman said that he was being satirical and that his remarks are being taken out of context.  He advised those who want a politically correct candidate to vote for one of his opponents." 

The Los Angeles Times profiles Californian turned Virginian George Allen (R), calling him a "rising star in the Republican Party and darling of the Christian right" -- and noting how he was "remarkably flummoxed this week as he acknowledged his previously undisclosed Jewish roots...  Allen has sought to cast himself as an uncomplicated conservative who wears cowboy boots with his suits, spits tobacco and talks in football metaphors.  His father's move to coach the Washington Redskins brought the family to Virginia, and almost overnight Allen became a Southerner...  Despite his attempts to craft a new identity, he has spent the campaign mud-wrestling with who he is." 

From NBC's Mark Murray
After Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman lost his primary in August to Ned Lamont, and then decided to stay in the race as independent, one of the big political debates in Washington has been whether his candidacy will help or hurt Democrats as they try to win three GOP-held House seat. Some say it will help because Democrats will be turning out to vote (either for Lieberman or Lamont) and that turnout will benefit the Democratic House challengers. But others think it will hurt because the endangered House GOP incumbents -- Chris Shays, Rob Simmons, and Nancy Johnson -- have all endorsed Lieberman (or at least praised his independent bid), and they're all targeting the same kind of voters Lieberman is: moderate Democrats, independents, and Republicans.

Well, those in the "hurt" column might find their argument strengthened now that Shays has launched a new TV ad mirroring Lieberman's own message -- that he's an independent who can get things done. In his new ad, Shays says, "I've never been a partisan politician. I've gone against the president and the Republican leadership when I think they're wrong... I believe we are Americans first and Republicans and Democrats second." But Bill Burton, a spokesman at the Democratic House campaign committee, tells First Read that Shay's appeal to the middle won't work, since he has voted 100 percent of the time with President Bush on Iraq (even though he now calls for a timetable for withdrawal).

Speaking of Lieberman, his campaign is up with a brand-new ad that touts his experience and highlights Lamont's lack thereof. In the ad, one woman says, "There are huge issues facing this country." A man replies, "Now more than ever, we really need experience." Then another woman asks, "What kind of experience does Lamont have?"

And in Tennessee's competitive Senate race, Bob Corker (R) is running a radio ad that uses the L-word -- liberal -- to jab opponent Harold Ford (D). "Massachusetts Senators Ted Kennedy and John Kerry today unveiled their agenda for the next Congress," the ad announcer says. "And it's a very liberal one indeed. It seems like some liberal northern senators live in a different world. But they could be closer than you think. Because congressman Harold Ford agrees with them. And he wants to be Tennessee's next senator."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira and Ken Strickland
NBC News is reporting that a deal has been struck between the White House and Sen. John McCain (R) on the legislation concerning military tribunals for terrorist suspects. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R), one of the Republican holdouts on the tribunal legislation in addition to McCain, tells NBC that the deal is "good, I think" Graham gave a thumbs up as he got on an elevator to go to meet with Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist and McCain. Graham also said I"m a very happy man."

According to a spokeswoman for Frist, language exists for an agreement, and this is a positive step forward. "Once everyone looks at it, we hope to come to an agreement."

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Spokesman Tony Snow typically doesn't brief the White House press corps on days when President Bush is on the road -- like today.  But Snow took the opportunity posed by his relatively free morning to sit down with other political reporters at Washington's famed Monitor Breakfast, which can be a somewhat more civilized forum than the White House briefing room due to the absence of TV cameras.

Snow addressed all the news of day.  Any further response to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez calling Bush a "devil?"  "None," he said flatly.  What's the status of the negotations over detainee trial and treatment policy?  "Ongoing," Snow said.  When pressed for details, he begged off by comparing the situation to "warm milk," in that whatever he told reporters at the briefing "will turn into yogurt by the time I get back to my office."  He did dispute suggestions that Republicans are fighting amongst themselves over national security: "They agree on the goals.  They disagree on the means."   He said it's "clear" that there won't be a comprehensive immigration reform bill in this session of Congress, but that "the President's a patient guy."  And he responded to suggestions that the Administration is somehow manipulating gas prices ahead of the midterm elections: "How do you manipulate global markets," he asked, given "the gigantic and complex forces that are involved in setting oil prices?"

But he also offered some insights into White House thinking for the coming six and a half weeks before the midterm elections -- and for the final two years of Bush's term, in which he predicted the Bush White House will be "more aggressive than we're used to seeing" from presidents in their last two years.  Why?  Because, Snow said, Bush has a vice president with no presidential ambitions, meaning there will be "no degree of separation" between Bush and Dick Cheney as there was with then-President Bill Clinton and VP Al Gore, and the White House can push harder for what it wants.  Asked if that push could be made more difficult by the loss of one or both houses of Congress in November, Snow repeated Bush's line that he's not going to entertain that prospect because it won't happen.

And by way of measuring how often President Bush will be on the road campaigning in the weeks ahead, Snow said he "won't be doing a lot of on-camera briefings in October."

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Election day is 47 days away...  After spending the first part of his week on foreign affairs, President Bush hits the campaign trail today, returning to the state that gave him -- oh so narrowly -- his first presidential victory: Florida. His first event is in Tampa, where he raises money for congressional candidate Gus Bilirakis (R), who's vying to succeed his retiring father, Rep. Michael Bilirakis (R). After that, Bush heads to Orlando, where he headlines a reception for gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist (R) and the Florida GOP (alert: the embattled Katherine Harris is expected to be in attendance). Unlike some of his past campaign visits, both of these events are open to the press.

As we mentioned earlier this month, it's striking how few truly competitive races there are in Florida, which was the nation's political epicenter just six years ago. Polls show that incumbent Bill Nelson (D) is expected to blow out Harris (R) in the Senate race, while the national Democratic Party doesn't seem inclined to shower money on its gubernatorial nominee, Jim Davis, in his contest against Crist. In fact, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, the only toss-up race for major office in the state is the congressional battle between vulnerable Rep. Clay Shaw (R) and challenger Ron Klein (D).

As Bush heads to Florida, there are two new polls that disagree on whether Bush is getting a bump from his recent 9/11-centered speeches. The Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey shows Bush's approval rating at 45%, up 5 points since July. And it has Democrats leading Republicans on the generic ballot question by 10 points (49%-39%). The latest New York Times/CBS poll, however, has Bush's job approval is 37%, which is virtually unchanged from its last poll. It also shows Democrats with a 15-point advantage in the generic ballot (50%-35%).

And speaking of Bush in Florida… The US Election Assistance Commission, which was created under the 2002 Help America Vote Act (HAVA) to establish election administration and voting guidelines, meets in St. Louis today. It will hear testimony from election officials and voting organizations about the status of voter information Web sites for the November elections, as well as the progress of military and overseas balloting. While the status of such matters may have gone unnoticed in the past, there is a growing chorus of concern over whether voters are better off now than they were six years ago -- when a hanging chad was, well, something you'd never heard of and lever machines were considered perfectly effective voting equipment.

There are a number of factors in play this year that create a perfect storm of voting problems. Per a recent estimate by the Brennan Center for Justice, 80 million voters will cast ballots in a different way this year than they did in 2000. As we've noted before, voters voting on new and unfamiliar equipment could cause a backlog of problems. Consequently, some groups are putting up voter information websites, such as the National Association of Secretaries of State's CanIVote.org, which was created to help educate voters about issues such as new voting equipment, voter ID requirements, and registration requirements. Tens of thousands of troops stationed overseas in Iraq and Afghanistan are why overseas and military balloting procedures are of concern.

Got calendar?

More on the Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll: "Support also rose for Bush's and the Republican Party's positions on the Iraq war and the economy... Republicans also narrowed the gap with Democrats on which party better represents Americans' values." But: "Voters continue to view Democrats as the party that can better handle the major problems facing the nation and favor them on issues such as immigration, taxes and the budget deficit." 

Polling partner the Los Angeles Times says, "The survey spotlights a continuing array of Republican vulnerabilities, but it also offers the first evidence in months that the GOP may be gaining momentum before November's battle for control of Congress."

But then there's that New York Times/CBS poll, which finds that just 25% approve of the job the GOP-controlled Congress is doing. And 39% say their own representative deserved re-election, while 48% say it's time for someone new. "The disdain for Congress is as intense as it has been since 1994… It underlines the challenge the Republican Party faces in trying to hold on to power in the face of a surge in anti-incumbent sentiment." That said, the poll also shows that only 38% believe Democrats have a clear plan for how they would run the country, versus 45% who believe Republicans have a clear plan.

A Washington Post analysis notes how the "timing of Bush's address on democracy to the U.N. General Assembly and the overthrow of a democratically elected government" in Thailand "underlined the complexities and contradictions in his 'freedom agenda.' With the president's attention focused on the Middle East, the state of democracy elsewhere in the world does not rate as high on his priority list." 

The Financial Times reports, "The Bush administration had to empty its secret prisons and transfer terror suspects to the military-run detention centre at Guantánamo this month in part because CIA interrogators had refused to carry out further interrogations and run the secret facilities, according to former CIA officials and people close to the programme. The former officials said the CIA interrogators' refusal was a factor in forcing the Bush administration to act earlier than it might have wished" -- i.e., that election-year politics were not the driving reason for Bush's announcement. 

The New York Times says that lost in the debate over whether to redefine the Geneva Conventions are measures that would "strip federal courts of their authority to review the detentions of almost all terrorism suspects. Both the legislation introduced on behalf of the administration and the competing bill sponsored by a group of largely Republican opponents in the Senate include a provision that would bar foreigners held abroad from using the federal trial courts for challenges to detention known as habeas corpus lawsuits. If the provision was enacted, it would mean that all of the lawsuits brought in federal court by about 430 detainees at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, would be wiped from the books."

After his speech yesterday on energy independence, which was sponsored by the liberal group MoveOn, Sen. Barack Obama (D) told reporters that Bush's track record on terrorism is not unblemished and Democrats should not shy away from that fact. "Why we only focus on national security three months before every election doesn't make much sense to me. But then again, the President has the megaphone," he said. If Democrats become the majority party, Obama added that security would still be a top priority, but they would invest in building more alliances. "We would focus more of winning the hearts and minds and not assuming that military force will solve all of our problems," he said.

The Wall Street Journal: "The Federal Reserve left its short-term interest rate target at 5.25% for a second consecutive meeting... Stocks, meanwhile, which have been rallying because of falling oil prices and on hopes the Fed is finished raising rates and the economy escapes recession, extended their winning streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 72.28 points yesterday to 11613.19, just 110 points short of its January 2000 record."  

USA Today reports on how Bush's job approval rating appears to track inversely with the price of gasoline. "For some Americans, analysts speculate, gas prices provide a shorthand reading of the general state of the economy. Even though prices at the pump are largely outside the president's control, he gets credit when they fall - and blame when they rise." 

House Ways and Means ranking member Charlie Rangel is pledging to take a bipartisan approach should his party retake the majority in November, landing Rangel in the committee chairmanship. Even so, per his interview with Bloomberg, Rangel "said he 'cannot think of one' of [Bush's] first-term tax cuts that merit renewal. He also said no discussion would be possible on overhauling Social Security until Bush dropped a plan to create individual accounts funded by payroll taxes." 

Speaking of a Chairman Rangel, we think this effort began a while ago, at least unofficially, but the Washington Times says the Republican National Committee "will begin a major campaign offensive today to warn voters of far-left Democrats who would take leadership posts and committee chairmanships if they win control of Congress in November." 

The New York Times says Senate Republicans "formally put aside" the broad immigration overhaul supported by Bush "and decided instead to press ahead with narrower bills to require building 700 miles of fence on the southwestern border … The Senate voted, 94 to 0, to debate the measure on fencing and other border barriers at the cost of billions of dollars. But the fate of even that measure is unclear, because members of both parties have reservations, and [Senate Majority Leader Bill] Frist may need to block any amendments if he wants to deliver it to Mr. Bush before Congress adjourns next week."

At the same time, a bipartisan task force yesterday criticized the GOP Hill leaders' push to approve a US-Mexico border fence before recess, and before addressing other proposed immigration reforms, as a "piecemeal" approach.

Bob Novak devotes his column to John Bolton's still-stalled nomination as UN ambassador. The temporary focus, Novak says, is that Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) is the one responsible for holding up Bolton's nomination. "But Bolton's two-year struggle to get confirmed can be directly traced to a determined Democratic senator" -- Chris Dodd -- "and the vengeful U.N. secretariat."

Democrats hold at least four press conferences on the Hill today: 1) to denounce "the middle-class squeeze" under Republicans and 2) to unveil their Hispanic agenda, 3) to rail against what they call the GOP "Do-Nothing" Congress, and 4) to call for a new direction on national security. Also today, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D), Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) and two Democratic-leaning groups host a conference call to release a report on the so-called "donut hole," the gap in coverage for Medicare's prescription drug plan.

The Chicago Tribune notes that with the midterms approaching, religious moderates "are uniting and organizing in an unprecedented bid to challenge the Christian right and broaden the values agenda beyond the issues of abortion and same-sex marriage." 

Women Building for the Future ("The Future PAC") says it's launching an outreach program in six potential battleground states -- CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, and PA -- and 25 cities, to turn out African-American women voters.  

In CALIFORNIA, California State University is launching a "Flunk Arnold" contest this week, asking students to design a 30-second television commercial criticizing him. The AP writes that the initiative is three-fold: "Raise public awareness about fee increases at California colleges over the last few years; help defeat Schwarzenegger in the November governor's race; and get students involved in politics." The producer's winning commercial will be aired during The Daily Show with Jon Stewart and will receive a year's tuition.

After Ned Lamont's primary victory over Joe Lieberman in CONNECTICUT, many of the possible Democratic candidates for president immediately flocked to Lamont's side. But since then, the New York Times writes, "the dance between the presidential contenders and the Lamont campaign has grown more delicate. Some of the White House hopefuls - most notably Mark R. Warner, the former governor of Virginia - are debating how strongly to align themselves with a candidate who has become an icon of the liberal left."

Per the Orlando Sentinel, FLORIDA gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist (R) says he's not afraid of appearing with Bush today and is "proud" of the president. Crist said "he is not looking to take the money and duck out of camera range when standing by the president." But Republicans "might face more awkward choreography with controversial U.S. Senate nominee Katherine Harris expected at the presidential event, which begins at 5:30 p.m."

Republicans aren't the only ones pleased by Bush's appearance today in Florida for gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist (R). So are the Democrats. Josh Earnest, spokesperson for Crist opponent Jim Davis (D), tells First Read that their campaign is billing the race as status quo (Crist) versus a new direction (Davis). "No one symbolizes better the argument that we need a new direction than the president of the United States."

RNC chairman Ken Mehlman is in IOWA today, where he attends a breakfast fundraiser for congressional candidate Mike Whalen (R) and then heads to two other events for fellow candidate Jeff Lamberti (R).

In MARYLAND, the Senate-race battle over the state's considerable African-American vote has only just begun, with African-American Republican groups emerging yesterday to urge blacks to support GOP nominee Michael Steele.

Tuesday's primary in MASSACHUSETTS had the highest turnout since 1990, reports the Boston Globe. It's a "surge that party officials credit to gubernatorial nominee Deval L. Patrick's grass-roots organizing and that analysts say was also fueled by competitive local races and voter-turnout drives."

The Boston Herald reports that former President Bill Clinton will campaign for Patrick next month. "His mission is to generate not just excitement, but cash, as Patrick's gubernatorial campaign seeks national financial support." Though GOP nominee Kerry Healey's camp says it's not concerned, "Republicans are already buzzing about matching Clinton with GOP VIPs like Arizona Sen. John McCain for Healey." 

VIRGINIA Sen. George Allen's mom tells the Washington Post that she only informed her son of her Jewish heritage a month ago, and also said she "swears" that she never used the word "macaca" and didn't know what it meant when her son uttered it recently and caused a major controversy in his Senate race. There has been speculation that Allen picked up the word, a French-language slur, from his Tunisian mother. For these reasons and others, national Democrats now have this race on their radar, judging from Sen. Barack Obama's appearance yesterday on behalf of Democratic nominee Jim Webb.   

The Dallas Morning News reports on the concerns over election reform and the worries that new voting equipment is susceptible to tampering. "Election watchdogs fear similar problems or worse - perhaps even fraud - as thousands of U.S. counties use such machines for the first time in November's general elections. In Texas, most big counties, including Dallas, have already made the switch. But as smaller counties switch over, many voting experts are warning that people may face long waits at the polls, wrong vote tallies or recounts."    

The House passed the Federal Election Integrity Act by 228-196; the bill would require voters to show ID before casting ballots in federal elections starting in 2008. Republicans call it key to avoiding voter fraud; Democrats charge that it will disenfranchise low-income and minority voters.  The Washington Times says was among the recommendations made last year by the bipartisan Commission on Federal Election Reform, headed by former President Jimmy Carter ... and former Secretary of State James A. Baker III."

Maryland Gov. Robert Ehrlich (R), who faces a extremely tough challenge to his re-election this fall, is calling for the state to dump its electronic voting system in favor of paper ballots after problems plagued the vote count in last week's primaries. Some of those problems were caused by human rather than machine error. Top Democratic officials are objecting to Ehrlich's proposal, saying the state should focus on fixing issues with the current system because a rushed switch to another system before election day could cause even more problems.  

The AP covers newly released White House records showing that "[f]ormer associates of disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff," including Grover Norquist and Ralph Reed, "had dozens of appointments with Bush administration staff members... White House officials said they believe all their meetings that included Bush were group events, such as Christmas parties or policy briefings for GOP supporters." 

Roll Call suggests one reason why Rep. Bob Ney (R) might be refusing to resign just yet: "House Members are paid on the first of every month, and a resignation beforehand would deprive Ney - who has no personal wealth - and his family of a significant portion of his Congressional income."  

Meanwhile, NBC's Mike Viqueira says that Ohio Rep. Deborah Pryce, the fourth ranking Republican in the House, yesterday once again called on Ney to resign from Congress after he pleaded guilty to corruption charges. Pryce told reporters that she "believes very strongly that Bob Ney should resign" because he has "betrayed the trust" of the people of Ohio. It should be noted, of course, that Pryce herself is in a tight race for re-election in Ohio. At the same presser where Pryce made her feelings known, Rep. David Dreier (R) also indicated that he thinks it's time for Ney to step down.

And NBC's Joel Seidman reports that special counsel Patrick Fitzgerald's three-year CIA leak investigation has cost American taxpayers about $1.5 million since it began in December 2003 -- the least amount of any other Justice Department probe by an independent or special counsel in US history. By contrast, the decade-long probe of former Clinton HUD Secretary Henry Cisneros by David Barrett cost about $23 million. In fact, a cost comparison of expense statements filed with the GAO for the last four reporting cycles by Barrett and Fitzgerald clearly reveals the cost differences. From October 2003 to September 2005, Barrett's probe cost nearly $4 million; during that same period of time, Fitzgerald's cost about $900,000.

Though some might consider him a long shot, Bloomberg looks at the effect Sen. Russ Feingold (D) may have on the field if he runs for president. "The standard for purity in the Democratic Party these days is opposition to President George W. Bush, and Feingold, 53, has a record nobody else can match." Meanwhile, former President Bill Clinton "has told confidants he thinks Feingold will be a factor" in the election. 

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The House Judiciary Committee has reversed itself after Republican no-shows on the initial vote on President Bush's detainee measure turned up for a re-vote and supported the measure. Rep. Louie Gohmert was one of the Republicans who initially voted "nay," but that turned out to be a parliamentary ploy to buy time until absent Republicans could be rounded up -- anyone voting against a measure can bring it back up for a re-vote. Long story short, the House measure squeaked out of the committee by a vote of 20-19. Barring any further developments, the measure heads to the full House for a floor vote next week.