USA Today says that while the NIE paints a picture of a militant Islamic movement that may be spreading too quickly for the United States and its allies to keep up, "it also echoes President Bush's insistence on succeeding in Iraq." 

But, per the New York Times, "nowhere in the assessment is any evidence to support Mr. Bush's confident-sounding assertion this month in Atlanta that 'America is winning the war on terror.'" 

A Los Angeles Times analysis: "The escalating debate over national security reflects the belief among strategists in both parties that the terrorism issue works to their benefit.  The question is how voters will interpret each side's arguments." 

Bloomberg notes, "Some of the conclusions conflict with past statements by members of the administration, including Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld...  A White House official said the conclusions are consistent with Bush's repeated statements that the war in Iraq is a crucial component of the strategy to defeat terrorism and to make the U.S. less prone to attack." 

The Boston Globe notes that yesterday's "release of portions of the report was reminiscent to some critics of the White House decision two years ago to declassify a 2002 report estimating Iraq's suspected arsenal of weapons of mass destruction."

The Justice Department may probe the NIE leak. 

The Washington Post, taking its turn covering the debate between the Bush and Clinton Administrations over their respective anti-terror efforts, says it "effectively broke a tacit peace between the 42nd and 43rd presidents that has reigned for most of the past two years." 

In an interview with WNDB radio, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the September 11 Commission report made clear that "the Bush Administration did what it knew to do between coming to office and September 11th" and that the report "made very clear... that our country was not organized to fight a war on terror" before September 11.  Rice backed away a bit from her remarks to the New York Post that some of Clinton's claims were "flatly false," instead pointing to the Commission as the authority on this subject.

Look who's meeting with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani later this morning, among others: Sens. John McCain (R), Joe Lieberman (D), Hillary Clinton (D), and George Allen (R), all of whom voted in favor of going to war in Iraq.

The defense spending bill passed the House yesterday; the Senate is expected to OK it before the end of the week.  "In a slap at Bush, the bill would bar the administration from using money from it to construct permanent U.S. military bases in Iraq or to exercise any control over Iraq's oil sector," says the Financial Times. 

UN Ambassador John Bolton probably won't get his committee vote until after the elections, in a lame-duck session.  His recess-appointed term expires in January. 

The House GOP leadership will brief the media this morning after their final closed-door conference meeting of the session.  Majority Leader John Boehner does MSNBC's Hardball at 5:00 pm.  The Democratic leadership will hold a press conference to slam the "rubber-stamp" Republican Congress.

The Los Angeles Times writes that the Senate might not be able to pass a bill -- already approved by the House -- that would make it a crime for someone to avoid parental consent laws by taking a minor to another state to have an abortion.  "That would leave Republicans with few trophies to show their socially conservative base as they try to motivate voters in the final six weeks of the fiercely contested 2006 campaign." 

"House Republican leaders yesterday sought to invigorate their conservative base with election-year legislation aimed at protecting both the religious freedom of municipalities and a parent's role in a minor's abortion decision," reports the Washington Times.  "The House passed a revised parental-notification bill and legislation limiting legal damages against cities and towns that lose lawsuits for violating the Constitution's ban on the establishment of religion." 

The Wall Street Journal reports that an "array of former members of Congress and officials from Republican administrations dating to the 1970s" are saying they'd prefer to see Republicans lose the majority.  Three reasons why: "Fiscal hawks are furious about the growth of the federal government.  Conservative lawyers... are upset that Congress allowed President Bush to claim expansive powers to eavesdrop on American citizens and detain suspected militants without trial.  Others say the war in Iraq is a costly diversion from the war on terror."

Hill Democrats, including presidential contenders and Sens. Hillary Clinton and Chris Dodd and House caucus chair Jim Clyburn, will hold a press conference today to blast the voter ID bill as a potential barrier to minority voting.  Republicans have pushed the bill as a border security measure.

Three Senate Democrats, the New York Times says, introduced legislation yesterday that would reimburse states for printing paper ballots in case there are problems with electronic voting machines.  "The proposal is a response to grass-roots pressures and growing concern by local and state officials about touch-screen machines.  An estimated 40 percent of voters will use those machines in the election." 

MySpace.com is launching a voter-registration drive targeting young people. 

In a two-parter, USA Today analyzes Census data and finds that "House districts held by Republicans are full of married people.  Democratic districts are stacked with people who have never married...  Most serious Democratic challenges this fall are in Republican-controlled House districts that have lower marriage rates."  A second story says Democratic districts also contain fewer children than GOP districts, and that this "'fertility gap' is crucial to understanding the differences between liberals and conservatives...  These childbearing patterns shape divisions over issues such as welfare, education and child tax credits." 

The New York Times says that Democrats and Republicans began running at least 30 new campaign ads yesterday in House and Senate contests -- and just three of them were positive.  "The result of the dueling accusations has been what both sides described on Tuesday as the most toxic midterm campaign environment in memory."  (But don't we always say that?) 

Roll Call reports that the RNC has devoted nearly a third of its advertising budget to just three Senate races -- Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee -- "with all indications that the committee hopes to build a firewall around those states to ensure the chamber's GOP majority." 

"House Democrats are making an intense final push to raise inside-the-Beltway money before Congress adjourns, collecting most of it from the lobbying industry they have distanced themselves from this election cycle," The Hill reports. 

Former national party committee chairs Ed Gillespie (R) and Terry McAuliffe (D) speak at the National Press Club today.

While CALIFORNIA Democrats are discouraged about Phil Angelides' chances of defeating Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), Democratic presidential contenders are flocking to help him: "former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina and Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and John F. Kerry of Massachusetts.  Due in soon are New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, Sen. Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut and retired Army Gen. Wesley K. Clark."  Why are they trekking to California?  Because that's where the money is.    

Two new polls show Schwarzenegger widening his lead over Angelides.  "Schwarzenegger has jumped to a 17 percentage-point advantage over the state treasurer, according to a survey from the Public Policy Institute of California," the San Francisco Chronicle says.  Similarly, a new Field Poll shows Schwarzenegger with a 10-point lead among likely voters. The Angelides camp insists they have time to build momentum before the election, and credit the new multi-million dollar campaign led by a coalition of unions. 

Current RNC chair Ken Mehlman raises money for COLORADO gubernatorial nominee Bob Beauprez in Washington today. 
The AP summarizes the problems that have plagued Beauprez in a contest that was expected to be more competitive than it's proving to be. 

Behind in the polls, FLORIDA Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jim Davis is campaigning with former rival Rod Smith.  "Smith said no details have been worked out," but that "he may be helpful in counties that Davis lost" in the primary, reports the Miami Herald. 

The Democratic Senate campaign committee (DSCC) and MARYLAND GOP Senate nominee Michael Steele's campaign are in a tête-à-tête ad race.  The Washington Times writes up a new ad released by the DSCC that says Steele "loves" Bush.  Steele "responded by releasing an ad that criticizes his Democratic opponent, Rep. Benjamin L. Cardin, for taking money from drug companies and voting against the importation of prescription drugs from Canada." 

After being upstaged in her first debate of the general election by independent candidate Christy Mihos, Republican Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey, who's running for governor in MASSACHUSETTS, is challenging Democrat Deval Patrick to a one-on-one debate. 

Making his most "extensive comments" on the race to date, Gov. Mitt Romney (R) defended Healey against the attacks launched at her during the recent debate.  But "Romney's pointed rebuttal also served to defend his legacy as he readies for a possible run for president in 2008." 

The Hill gets some MISSOURI Democrats to complain that Senate nominee Claire McCaskill is failing to capitalize on the state's minimum wage and stem-cell ballot initiatives to help turn out the vote in November. 

In TEXAS, the Houston Chronicle reports, syndicated gossip columnist Liz Smith created an uproar when she implied that the late Gov. Ann Richards (D) had supported independent Kinky Friedman's gubernatorial campaign.  But she later recanted that comment. 

As VIRGINIA Sen. George Allen (R) prepares to meet with the Iraqi President today, Allen's Democratic opponent Jim Webb is attacking him in a TV ad for supporting the war in Iraq.  Allen's campaign also continues to grapple with charges that he used racial epithets in his younger days.  Top Allen supporter and former RNC chair Ed Gillespie went at it with MSNBC's Chris Matthews over the latter on Hardball yesterday while the Allen campaign continued to try to discredit the chief source of the new allegations.

The Washington Post uses Laura Bush's appearance for House candidate Joy Padgett (R) in Ohio yesterday to illustrate how Padgett has been hamstrung in her effort to replace retiring Rep. Bob Ney (R) by all the scandals plaguing Ney and other state Republicans, leaving Padgett with few high-profile party figures who can stump for her and hurting her chances of hanging onto an otherwise GOP-leaning seat. 

Today, the parties involved in the CIA leak case against former Vice President Cheney chief of staff Lewis "Scooter" Libby will face off in court over which classified documents Libby will be allowed to use to defend himself against charges of perjury and obstruction at his trial in January, per NBC's Joel Seidman.  Libby's attorneys will battle with special prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald before Judge Reggie Walton in the first of several closed hearings on the topic.  Fitzgerald wants to limit the use of secret documents, believing that extensive use of classified materials at trial may in fact jeopardize national security and sink his case, Seidman says.  He has already agreed that Libby should be able to use his own White House notes.  But in order for Libby to make his case to a jury, he says he must rely on the daily morning briefings he and Cheney received from the CIA, which are classified.  His trial is four months away; jury selection is scheduled to begin on January 17.

After the midterms but in time for the presidential election, the US Supreme Court will decide whether states can make labor unions ask members for permission before using their dues for political activities. 

The cover story of the latest Atlantic Monthly examines how Sen. Hillary Clinton -- who came to Washington in the 1990s as an insurgent -- has turned herself into the consummate Washington player.  "The story of Clinton's Senate career mirrors that of her political life generally: a pattern of ambition, failure, study, and advancement…  But it also points up her core liabilities as she prepares to move from the New York stage and back to the national one.  Maybe one way to frame the question is this: Can a woman who has made herself small enough for the Senate be big enough for the country?" 

The Des Moines Register reports that four potential or likely presidential candidates for 2008 will visit Iowa over the next week: Romney, Gov. George Pataki (R), Sen. Evan Bayh (D), and Sen. Barack Obama (D). 

Today, Romney campaigns for Iowa Republicans.  And Elizabeth Edwards does Oprah to talk about her new book.

From NBC's Libby Leist and Ken Strickland
One day after Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told the New York Post that some of former President Clinton's assertions in his Sunday FOX interview were "flatly false," Rice spokesman Sean McCormack sought to downplay any "Rice v. Clinton" stories. McCormack told reporters that Rice was not trying to make it a "personal issue" and that she "was merely answering some questions that were put to her in one of a number of different interviews she had scheduled yesterday."

McCormack said Rice believes that both President Clinton and Bush tried to fight al Qaeda, but "those efforts were clearly not enough," and that the government under both before September 11 was not organized to "fight the war that we're fighting now." As for any possible motives behind Clinton's defense of his efforts and his attack on the Bush Administration, McCormack said the reporters should ask those who were involved, but that there was "clearly... a lot of emotion in that interview."

At a news conference today about the NIE, Sen. Hillary Clinton defended her husband's heated interview, saying he "did a great job in demonstrating that Democrats are not going to take these attacks." And she took at swing at the Administration: "I'm certain that if my husband and his national security team had been shown a classified report entitled 'Bin Laden Determined to Attack Inside the United States,' he would have taken it more seriously that history suggests it was taken by our current president and his national security team."

From NBC's Jennifer Colby
In six weeks, South Dakota voters will have the opportunity to decide whether an abortion ban, passed in the state earlier this year, should be overturned or upheld. The South Dakota Campaign for Healthy Families ran a grassroots campaign to collect enough signatures to get the referendum on the November ballot. In a press briefing today, the group said the outcome of the vote will have a national impact and will determine if 14 other states considering similar bans will continue their efforts. "[The ban] awoke a sleeping giant," Kate Michelman, the former president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, said in the briefing. "Until people have lost something, which in this case is a fundamental right, they aren't engaged. This sent the message out. The public doesn't want this, they won't allow it."

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
President Bush has called for the declassification of the National Intelligence Estimate to take place "as quickly as possible."  The "key judgments" portion will be released.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Even though political analysts are predicting the same outcome, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) told a group of Washington political reporters this morning that Democrats will hold control of a majority of governorships after the November elections (Republicans currently have a 28-22 edge). Although such a feat is largely symbolic, Richardson, who chairs the Democratic Governors Association, said it would be "a barometer of a political sea change" taking place in the country. And he suggested it could usher in a host of policy changes in the states. "While the Congress is locked in gridlock ... the states are incubators for change."

Richardson added, "Voters are seeing governors as the real architects of fiscal responsibility" -- which was somewhat of a self-serving statement given that he is expected to run for president in 2008, and will obviously tout that kind of message in a White House bid. Asked about his presidential ambitions, Richardson replied, "I will make a decision early next year." Also asked about the possibility of competing against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination, he said, "My view is that the party needs a spirited primary. I think we need a debate about the heart and soul of the party."

In addition, he touched on several of today's hottest political issues. On immigration, Richardson -- who is Latino -- said it's an important issue, and that he supports an earned path towards citizenship for illegal immigrants. But he thinks its political effect will be a wash on this year's elections. "I'm not sure you gain any additional voters" -- whether you support citizenship or not. On Iraq, he said that the war will be largely responsible for Democrats for picking up an additional 2% of the vote over Republicans in the midterms, and he advocates a timetable for withdrawal. Moreover, he said he supported Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean's controversial 50-state strategy (in which the DNC is spending money rebuilding state parties, rather than on key races this year). "I'm on Dean's side," he stated. "The Democratic Party has to rebuild itself from the ground up. It can't rebuild itself from Washington on down."

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
The White House indicates that conversations are taking place about the possibility of declassifying the April 2006 National Intelligence Estimate. The discussion seems to center on the Administration's view that a characterization of one paragraph is not enough context for a report containing "nine key judgments."

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Six weeks until election day...  President Bush's Iraq-is-central-to-the-war-on-terror events today are a meeting with President Karzai of Afghanistan and a joint press availability.  Vice President Cheney yesterday touted Afghanistan as a "a rising nation -- with a democratically-elected government, a market economy, and millions of children going to school for the first time."  Democrats argue that the Administration has paid too little attention to Afghanistan compared to Iraq -- "one-seventh" the attention, as former President Clinton said -- and that this has made the United States less safe. 

Bush also raises money at another closed-press fundraiser at another private home, this time in Washington, for GOP efforts in Arkansas, Iowa and Wisconsin.  Bush raised an estimated $1.7 million at his two events on the road yesterday.  The White House pool reporter traveling with him yesterday sought a comment from Ohio Sen. Mike DeWine (R), one of the beneficiaries of Bush's events.  "'I appreciate the president coming in,' the senator said.  'He raised a lot of money.  It's always good to be with the president.'  Asked if it does him any good to appear with Mr. Bush, the senator repeated himself: 'It's always good to be with the president.'"

Laura Bush is in Ohio and upstate New York, making remarks for the Republican candidates seeking to replace retiring Rep. Bob Ney and Sherwood Boehlert.  Both of her events are open-press.  Vice President Cheney's staff marked his 100th fundraiser of the cycle yesterday by inviting the attending press pool to join Cheney for cake.

Also today, Bush signs a bill creating a searchable database for targeted federal spending projects, a/k/a pork.  He'll be joined at the bill-signing by co-sponsoring Sen. Barack Obama (D) and, a source tells First Read, by some of the bloggers who helped root out the lawmaker who had placed a hold on the legislation, GOP Sen. Ted Stevens of Bridge to Nowhere fame. 

The House gets down to work for this final week.  NBC's Mike Viqueira points out that all you need to do is look at the progress of the spending bills to see that this session has been marked by classic election-year gridlock.  Exactly none of the 12 must-pass measures has been passed by the Congress.  That will likely change this week with passage of the defense and homeland security bills, Viq says, but it still means that that hundreds of billions will be divvied up behind closed doors by a select few during a lame-duck session after the elections.  The homeland security spending bill will likely include a downpayment of $1.2 billion for construction of a border fence, as well as money for more border agents. 

The House also will take up the compromise detainee bill tomorrow and take up the NSA warrantless surveillance bill on Thursday.  Viq advises that the latter bill still must be married up with the pending Senate version, which isn't likely to happen in time for recess as the Senate is still hashing out its version.

On the Senate side, the White House-sponsored bill that would authorize the NSA program made real progress yesterday, NBC's Ken Strickland reports.  Three Republicans who had previously withheld their support from the bill have signed on, cutting a deal with the White House for some changes in the legislation -- and potentially setting the stage for a pre-election debate with Democrats on national security, which some GOP operatives have been seeking.  While the support of these three Republicans doesn't ensure the bill's passage, it does unify their conference.  Most Senate Democrats opposed the NSA bill as originally written, Strickland reminds us.  Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist has yet to announce how he plans to move forward with the NSA and detainee bills. 

In his CongressDaily AM column, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook suggests a more anecdotal rule of thumb for viewing the prospects of the House flipping: "If Republicans can replicate the environment of the last six weeks, their chances of holding onto their House majority, keeping Democratic gains under 15, are pretty good, and they will almost certainly retain their Senate majority.  But if the spotlight shifts away from the terrorism/declining gasoline prices focus and back onto the war in Iraq, where it was before, the House goes back to very likely Democratic and the Senate gets much more dicey."  The new CNN poll has Bush's job approval rating at 42%.

Got calendar? 

Former US Ambassador to Iraq turned National Intelligence Director John Negroponte addressed the NIE in a speech last night, arguing that "the jihad in Iraq is shaping a new generation of terrorist operatives, but rejected assertions, stemming from a leaked intelligence estimate, that the United States is at a greater risk of attack than it was in 2001," per the AP.  Also yesterday, the bipartisan leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee urged President Bush to declassify the NIE so the public can decide on its contents for themselves. 

Senate Armed Services ranking member Carl Levin and Sens. Jack Reed and Hillary Clinton will hold a press conference today "to discuss Administration failures in Iraq and the war on terrorism" in the wake of the reporting on the NIE, per the press release.

At the informal hearing convened yesterday by Senate Democrats, in which their Republican colleagues did not participate, two retired US generals who served in Iraq repeated their calls for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to resign, charging that the Pentagon chief sought to exaggerate pre-war intelligence links between al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein, dismissed military recommendations on necessary troops levels, and failed to implement a plan to fight the insurgency, per NBC's Scott Foster.  Former Gens. John Batiste and Paul Eaton both called on Rumsfeld to step down back in April.

Senate Democrats plan to hold the rest of these sessions on the road.  "They declined yesterday to name the cities in which they plan to hold field hearings before and after the November election, but aides said they would not be staged in states where Republican and Democratic candidates are locked in tight battles because they hope not to alienate potential witnesses who may be wary of being used as political pawns." 

The San Francisco Chronicle writes that the sessions "might be good politics, which could produce some headlines, but Democrats maintain it is good policy." 

Senate Judiciary Committee chair Arlen Specter is objecting to the detainee deal because, he says, it "would suspend a fundamental legal right against unlawful detention...  Specter's opposition could complicate efforts to win congressional approval this week for a deal worked out Thursday."  NBC's Ken Strickland advises, however, that Specter's objections aren't likely to hold up the bill. 

The Boston Globe and New York Daily News talk to players on both sides of the Clinton-Bush aisle to discuss their attempts, or lack thereof, to capture Osama bin Laden.

The New York Times notes how Bush often tries to paint his Democratic opponents as being soft on terrorism by saying things like, "Most people want us to win," or, "I need members of Congress who understand that you can't negotiate with these [terrorists]," both of which imply that some Democrats want to lose or want to negotiate with al Qaeda.  "...[T]his president, not known for particularly smooth oratory, could well be remembered for his perceived use of rhetorical sleight of hand that consistently ensnares and enrages his rivals." 

"Home sales continued to decline last month, and the nation's median home price dropped for the first time in more than a decade...  If their homes are worth less, consumers may feel less wealthy and therefore spend less on goods and services, a worrisome trend for the broader economy," says the Wall Street Journal.   

President Bush touted his tax cuts at a tool manufacturing plant in Cincinnati yesterday, reviving his argument that the tax cuts have boosted the economy and tying them to the health of small businesses.  "Some have advocated that we ought to raise taxes on individuals, which would take money out of the pockets of this company.  If you take money out of the treasury of this company it means it's less likely somebody is going to find work...  You hear people say, well, we're not going to extend the tax cuts -- that means they're going to raise taxes on the small business, just like this one.  And it's bad economic policy and it will be bad for our country."

Democrats counter today with a press conference at which they'll denounce "the Republican Congress's plan to raise taxes on middle-class families across America by failing to renew important tax extenders," per the release.  Attending the event: Senate Finance ranking member Max Baucus, House Ways and Means ranking member Charlie Rangel, and Senate and House campaign committee chairs Chuck Schumer and Rahm Emanuel.

Also yesterday, White House spokesperson Tony Snow sought to poke holes in allegations that the Administration is manipulating gas prices so that they'll be low right before election day.  "The one thing I have been amused by is the attempt by some people to say that the President has been rigging gas prices, which would give him the kind of magisterial clout unknown to any other human being.  It also raises the question, if we're dropping gas prices now, why on earth did we raise them to $3.50 before?"

"Almost half of Americans believe the plunge at the pump has more to do with politics and the November elections, than economics," says USA Today based on new Gallup data, and "almost two-thirds of those who suspect President Bush intervened to bring down energy prices before Election Day are registered Democrats." 

The chief sponsors of the Senate's comprehensive immigration-reform bill, which Bush supports but which has been long stalled by opposition in the House, hold a press conference today with religious leaders to call for passage of the bill.  While House Republicans call the Senate bill "Reid-Kennedy," the bill is the McCain-Kennedy bill.  The White House has already acknowledged that they don't expect progress to be made on the Senate legislation anytime soon.

The Washington Post says Bush's closed-door events yesterday "underscored both his continued ability to attract donations and his continued unpopularity with much of the public." 

The New York Times: "Republicans do not expect to be riding President Bush's record to re-election this fall.  But they are trying to ride his gravy train - as quietly as possible." 

Most of Connecticut's high-profile GOP lawmakers were absent from Bush's event yesterday, and because the event was closed-press, "there were no public opportunities Monday for photographs of Bush with candidates," says the Hartford Courant.  Also: "Both privately and in front of GOP supporters at the fundraiser, Bush told [endangered moderate GOP Rep. Chris] Shays that he needs to turn up the political heat on Diane Farrell, his Democratic opponent." 

Bloomberg looks at how Democratic candidates in several races are running on increased funding for embryonic stem-cell research, believing it "represents a rare instance when a divisive social issue cuts their way by creating a fissure among Republicans."

Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean has a grassroots events in Austin.

"House Republican leaders - with an assist from White House strategist Karl Rove - will mount one final push this week for the financial support of GOP lobbyists," says Roll Call.  "Thursday afternoon at the Capitol Hill Club, Rove will join the top six House GOP leaders to address as many as 200 lobbyists...  Several GOP sources said the leadership also would reiterate a warning against giving to Democrats." 

"House GOP leaders cannot decide whether to hold leadership elections the week after the midterm elections," The Hill reports.  "Their uncertainty is a sign of Republican unease and suggests that officeholders may postpone the contests for their jobs if the party suffers heavy losses." 

The Los Angeles Times looks at how "mudslinging is crucial to the Republican plan for this year's midterm elections, because the party's hold on power will probably hinge on shifting attention from the unpopular war in Iraq and other national issues that cut against them."  The story notes that the point of the ads may be to depress turnout "among voters who might otherwise have supported the candidate under attack." 

The (Mountain) West is no longer quite so won for Republicans, says USA Today, which lists a number of key races in the region which are looking unusually competitive. 

The Wall Street Journal looks at how the Senate playing field has changed over time and how Democrats have gotten most of the breaks, with the notable exception of New Jersey.

The Washington Times takes its turn reporting on an apparent shift in mood in Washington.  "Some on both sides had expected an election debacle for the Republicans, driven by the Iraq war, high gas prices and the perception that a Republican-led Washington can neither shoot nor spend straight.  Now those perceptions have changed." 

The Chicago Tribune travels to ARIZONA's competitive House district to see how immigration is playing out in contests across the country.  "With six weeks to go before the elections, Democrats and Republicans are embracing the complicated and emotionally powerful issue of immigration reform.  But as the Republican-controlled Congress prepares to adjourn, most likely without passing an immigration bill, the debate is not playing out in a predictable way" -- as some Republicans find themselves divided on the issue, while some Democrats are taking a tough stance. 

In CALIFORNIA today, GOP Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger meets with the Dalai Lama, while Democratic challenger Phil Angelides continues to highlight his pledge to call on President Bush to bring California National Guard troops home from Iraq should he be elected governor.  Public employee unions are launching an anti-Schwarzenegger ad campaign today in hopes of boosting Angelides, the Los Angeles Times says.  "Like the ads that helped kill Schwarzenegger's initiatives in the special election last November, the new commercials accuse him of breaking promises to stand up to special interests," and also of not being "a champion of public schools." 

The Hartford Courant details CONNECTICUT Sen. Joe Lieberman's 10-step plan for Iraq, which he rolled out yesterday.  Step one: "Replace Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld."  The plan does not include a timetable for US troop withdrawal. 

The four candidates seeking to replace MASSACHUSETTS Gov. Mitt Romney (R) participated in the first of four general election debates last night and traded barbs about transportation, immigration, education and taxes.  GOP nominee and Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey was a little distracted during the debate as self-funding independent Christy Mihos "prodded, taunted, and interrupted" her so many times that "[h]is presence added feistiness to the forum and may have even drawn sympathy for Healey from some viewers...  Mihos's attacks on Healey seemed driven in part by strategy.  Her conservative and moderate voters may be more open to supporting him." 

Healey informed the state yesterday that she intends to spend $15 million during the general election, which would set a record for the most expensive statewide race.  "If Healey had not made her intentions clear in a letter to the state Office of Campaign and Political Finance, the spending cap would have been set at $1.5 million for each candidate." 

Roll Call suggests that former Democratic Gov. Jim McGreevey's return to the public eye to promote his new book might exacerbate NEW JERSEY Sen. Bob Menendez's ethics issues. 

In what could be a blow to Sen. Rick Santorum (R), the Green party candidate in PENNSYLVANIA may get thrown off the ballot for lack of valid signatures. 

In TEXAS, the Houston Chronicle writes, gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman (I) campaigned yesterday with the man whose onetime success he hopes to replicate: former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura.  "Sitting next to… Ventura, who sported a braided beard and railed about the war in Iraq, Kinky Friedman looked downright mainstream on Monday." 

And former Sen. John Edwards (D) campaigns with VIRGINIA Senate nominee Jim Webb in Fredericksburg.  Sen. George Allen (R) is flatly denying Salon.com's report in which former college football teammates of Allen's say he "repeatedly used an inflammatory racial epithet and demonstrated racist attitudes toward blacks during the early 1970s."  The Washington Post reports that other former teammates of Allen's dispute the report's most damaging account.  Allen said yesterday that the epithet is not part of his vocabulary, while the New York Times and New Republic find other sources who say it is. 

From NBC's Ken Strickland
The White House-sponsored bill that would authorize the NSA's warrantless surveillance program has just taken significant step forward in the Senate. Republican Sens. Larry Craig, John Sununu, and Lisa Murkowski -- who had previously withheld their support from the bill -- have now signed on, cutting a deal with the White House for some changes in the legislation. It could also set the stage for a pre-election debate with Democrats on national security, something Republican operatives have been seeking.

While the support of Craig, Sununu, and Murkowski by no means ensures the bill's passage, it does unify their caucus. And unlike McCain's recent detainee bill which divided Republicans while Democrats happily stayed on the sidelines, this development draws a bold line between the parties. Most Democrats opposed the NSA bill as originally written.   

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist has yet to announce how he plans to move forward with the NSA or detainee bills. Until then, Democrats are holding their fire and reading over the changes recently made to the bill. This is the last week of session for Congress before returning home for the midterm elections.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Forty-three days until election day...  Having determined that fighting terrorism remains their party's best issue, the Bush Administration has worked strenuously over the past several weeks to cast their chief political liability, the war in Iraq, as central to the broader war on terror.  This week, the effort includes meetings between President Bush and his counterparts in Afghanistan and Pakistan and burst of legislating by the GOP-run Congress before they leave for the rest of the cycle.

Up until now, Democrats have struggled in the face of Bush's use of the bully pulpit to keep the spotlight trained on Iraq by arguing that the war there has made the country less safe.  Today, they'll kick off a series of Senate sessions examining the Administration's approach to the war; the first will feature three retired generals who served in Iraq and will blast Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.  Yesterday on FOX, former President Clinton offered a strident defense of his own record and critique of Bush's on fighting terrorism.  But it's the recently released National Intelligence Estimate which is helping Democrats bring their argument full circle with its verdict that the war in Iraq is encouraging terrorism.  More on this below.

The White House billed this week as Bush's first round of heavy-duty campaigning, even advancing it with an unusual press release touting the uptick in his job approval rating.  But most of Bush's events this week are closed to the media, starting with his appearances today on behalf of Connecticut Republicans and Ohio Sen. Mike DeWine.  His events for Iowa, Arkansas, and Wisconsin Republicans on Tuesday; for Tennessee Senate nominee Bob Corker on Wednesday; and for Rep. Deborah Pryce in Ohio on Thursday are all closed.  All of these events are at private homes, and under recent presidents, closing events at private homes has been SOP.  But why so many events at private homes for the Campaigner-in-Chief?  By comparison, the more popular Laura Bush campaigns openly this week for Republicans in top races in Ohio, New York, Iowa, Michigan.

As Bush hits the trail, the latest RT Strategies poll conducted for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report from September 21-24 shows him with a job approval rating of 40% and a 14-point Democratic lead on the generic congressional ballot test, 49%-35%, among registered voters.

Hanging over Bush's trip north today, as NBC's Kelly O'Donnell points out, are his remarks in an August 21 news conference that he was "going to stay out of Connecticut."  He was referring at the time, of course, to the state's unusual Senate race in which the GOP had clearly made a strategic decision to support "independent Democratic" Sen. Joe Lieberman instead of their own underwhelming nominee.  As O'Donnell says, there's no way this won't come up today -- in part because Bush is going there to raise money to help Republicans hang onto their three vulnerable House seats, but isn't helping GOP Senate nominee Alan Schlesinger.  And in part because one big reason why the three Republicans are vulnerable is because of, well, Bush.  One of them, Rep. Chris Shays, just launched a new TV ad in which he says, "I've gone against the President and the Republican leadership when I think they're wrong."  

Later today, Bush will headline a fundraiser in Cincinnati for DeWine, who's also airing a new TV ad stressing his independence.  New Columbus Dispatch polling shows DeWine trailing his Democratic opponent by 5 points and also suggests that Democrats will easily win the governorship.  In addition to his events for DeWine, Bush will make remarks on the economy.

On Capitol Hill, it's a week for last best shots as Congress is scheduled to depart -- the House on Thursday, the Senate on Friday -- and remain out until November 13.  As NBC's Ken Strickland notes, the fate of the GOP's entire national security agenda, as many as six different pieces of legislation, will get crunched into this week.  The two biggest items are also presidential priorities: the newly negotiated bill creating military commissions and rules for detainee treatment, and legislation that would authorize the NSA warrantless surveillance program and allow it to be reviewed by the FISA court.  Other items on the agenda include two defense funding bills, which includes emergency money for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; the homeland security funding bill; a port security bill; and border fence bill. 

Got calendar? 

The AP on lawmakers' reactions yesterday: "Democrats hoped the report would undermine the GOP's image as the party more capable of handing terrorism as the campaign enters its final six-week stretch...  Three leading Republicans -- Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist of Tennessee, Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Sen. Mitch McConnell of Kentucky -- defended the war in Iraq and said it is vital that U.S. troops stay in the fight.  None of them had seen the classified report, but were responding to press coverage of it." 

The White House's view, per a spokesperson, "is that much of the radicals' rage at the United States and Israel goes back generations and is not linked to the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq."  The White House is also arguing that the press accounts of the NIE didn't represent the entire document. 

In Connecticut, where Bush is traveling today, Democrats are clubbing their pro-war opponents with the NIE.  Joe Courtney is attacking Rep. Rob Simmons (R): "Rob Simmons should be ashamed of his vote to support George Bush's 'stay the course' policy in June of this year."  Also, with Sen. Joe Lieberman scheduled to give a "major speech on the future of Iraq" today, Democratic opponent Ned Lamont sent him a letter challenging him on the NIE: "With this report being released on the eve of your major address on Iraq, I and thousands of other citizens in Connecticut expect to hear your response to this news in your speech, considering you have echoed President Bush's claim that the Iraq War has made our country safer, and that staying the course will help keep us safe."  Lamont also calls Lieberman "the primary author of the Senate resolution backing the Iraq War policy," and charges that he "opposed every single resolution in Congress that would urge an end to the Iraq War."

(The Hartford Courant reports that in his speech today, "Lieberman intends to offer a new approach for Iraq, without calling for a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S. troops.") 

And on Capitol Hill, Senate Democrats will focus on the NIE in their first unofficial hearing on the Administration's approach to the Iraq war.  The AP says the retired generals who will appear, all of whom served in Iraq and are on the record as critics of the war, will focus on Rumsfeld in their remarks.  "It is unusual for retired military officers to criticize the Pentagon while military operations are under way, particularly at a public event likely to draw widespread media attention." 

A top House Democratic aide says the party's ranks in that chamber also plan to highlight the NIE this week.

Sen. John McCain (R) yesterday "named three measures that he said would no longer be allowed" under the deal struck on detainee legislation: "extreme sleep deprivation, forced hypothermia and 'waterboarding,' which simulates drowning.  He also said other 'extreme measures' would be banned...  McCain spoke after officials of Human Rights Watch and others pressed him to spell out ways in which the controversial draft legislation would constrain the CIA's actions." 

Bob Novak wonders why the deal took so long, and puts most of the blame with the White House.  "Such Republican disarray seven weeks before difficult midterm elections raises doubts of how much the Bush team has learned over six years.  The terrorist tribunal dispute saw Bush take a no-compromise line, appearing to lose his temper publicly.  With support in his own party disintegrating, the president had to compromise last week and seemed in retreat." 

Senate Judiciary Committee chair Arlen Specter gives a luncheon speech today at the National Press Club.

Noting that "Bush has served as a wartime president longer than any occupant of the White House since Lyndon B. Johnson," the Washington Post looks at how Bush balances his resolute public persona on the Iraq war and the empathy he shows in private meetings with aides and with the families of military casualties.  "If he does not show that publicly, it's in keeping with a White House practice of not drawing attention to the mounting costs of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq...  Advisers worry that sending the wrong signal would further sap public will and embolden the enemy and Bush's critics." 

Amid critics' calls for him to resign or be replaced, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld is closing in on the record for length of service in his post, USA Today notes.  "Rumsfeld has been Defense secretary for five years and eight months in the Bush administration and 14 months in the Ford administration.  The average tenure of the 21 men who have headed the Pentagon is less than three years...  Significantly, his relationship with President Bush seems unimpaired, presumably because the two men express agreement on the wisdom of invading Iraq and the need to stay the course there." 

Sen. John Kerry (D) focuses on Afghanistan in a Wall Street Journal op-ed: "When did denying al Qaeda a safe haven in Afghanistan cease to be an urgent American priority?  Somehow, we ended up with seven times more troops in Iraq -- which even the administration now admits had nothing to do with 9/11 -- than in Afghanistan, where the killers still roam free." 

Also during his media tour last week, former President Clinton alleged to Bloomberg that Republicans "'rediscover [Osama] bin Laden every two years right before the election'...  The former president acknowledged the Republican strategy, which he said is directed by White House aide Karl Rove, has had some success." 

The Republican candidate for retiring GOP Rep. Henry Hyde's seat used his party's "cut and run" line in a debate against Democratic opponent Tammy Duckworth, who lost both legs in Iraq.  The Financial Times uses the moment to look at how the Iraq war is playing in this unexpectedly competitive race in the Chicago suburbs. 

The Hartford Courant says of Bush's trip to Connecticut today, "It's hard to imagine how a scheduled visit by the president of the United States could have a lower profile.  Only 30 of Connecticut's most elite VIPs got invitations, not by mail but discreet phone call.  The luncheon... is so intimate that neither the White House nor state Republican Party will disclose where it will be or who is hosting it."  The paper found out that the private home belongs to "L. Scott Frantz, a 46-year-old investment banker,... at his oceanfront estate in the Riverside section of Greenwich." 

In Cincinnati, though DeWine will appear with Bush today, the Enquirer points out that DeWine's new TV ad says he's "ready, willing and able to work with Republicans and Democrats alike."