The Sunday Washington Post front-paged a storyline First Read has been following -- that state and local efforts to meet the requirements of the Help America Vote Act, and some other controversial changes to election procedures such as voter ID laws, could have the unintended effect of more glitches at the polls in November, judging from incidents that have occurred during some primaries, and that parties could rely on post-election litigation to determine the outcome of some close races.

One reason why voting issues will get attention from the Washington press corps is that they were recently faced with a prime example right in their own backyard. 

We reported here on Friday that Democrats plan to focus more on the economy, including in their Saturday radio addresses.  Roll Call reports today that "Democrats say they believe they can tap into voters's anxieties about economic security just as effectively as the Republicans play into Americans' fears about their safety at home," even though they "aren't inventing a new economic message, nor are they laying out new proposals...  But they are planning to once again ramp up the number of media events, floor speeches and legislative maneuvers where they press key economic issues.

The Center for American Progress holds a conference today on how the next Congress should organize its efforts to conduct oversight. Speakers will include academics, GAO Comptroller General David Walker, former Reps. Mickey Edwards (R) and Martin Frost (D), and House Government Reform Committee ranking member Henry Waxman (D).  With Republicans charging that a Democrat-run House would run rampant investigating the Administration and GOP members, and CAP being a "progressive" think-tank loaded up with Democratic former Hill, White House and campaign aides, we asked whether this conference were organized to respond to that charge.  CAP senior fellow Scott Lilly told First Read that the conference will address the organization of oversight regardless of which party is in the majority, and that it was planned long before Republicans began talking about Democrat-driven investigations.

There's a big difference between Joe Courtney and a half-dozen other Democratic House challengers MSNBC.com's Tom Curry has interviewed this year, he writes.  Courtney, running against GOP Rep. Rob Simmons in a House district that covers the entire eastern half of Connecticut, has run against Simmons before (losing to him in 2002) and is a veteran state legislator.  Unlike other Democratic challengers who are rookies who've never run for office before, Courtney is sure-footed, aggressive and confident.  He seems completely comfortable challenging a reporter's questions, Curry says.

Courtney's yard signs say "Courtney: Democrat for Change."  His pitch to voters is that simple -- throw out the GOP House -- and he'll be making it when he and Simmons square off for their first debate tonight in New London.  Courtney spent the weekend campaigning across the district, including walking in a parade on Saturday in the town of Somers, CT (up near the Massachusetts border) and mingling with Sunday festival-goers in Enfield.

But as he walked in that Somers parade, Simmons replied to Courtney's call for a change: "I deliver the goods to my constituents.  For the next two years, whether the Democrats like it or not, President George Bush is going to be the president.  It's going to be a Republican administration that I can work with to the deliver the goods.  My opponent has no access to this administration and will get nothing out of them."  Referring to a House-Senate conference committee's decision last week to authorize $400 million for building two attack subs a year at the General Dynamics Electric Boat shipyard in Groton, CT, Simmons said, "We run the risk of losing our two submarines a year" if Courtney wins. 

Simmons is one of 18 Republican House members who represent districts which John Kerry won in 2004.  Kerry got 54%, making this the second most Democratic district currently held by a Republican, Curry notes.

There's more coverage of how Democrats are hoping to damage their GOP opponents by clubbing them with Bush in speeches and ads.

US News & World Report examines how Republicans and Democrats are using microtargeting techniques -- dividing voters into categories that define their lifestyles and beliefs, and trying to turn out the ones who are more likely to vote for them.  "Unlike any congressional election to date, the results of this fall's midterms could be determined by which party can out-microtarget the other." 

As Christian conservatives gear up for the midterms, the New York Times writes that the IRS has announced that it plans to limit tax-exempt churches and charities from getting involved in partisan political campaigns this year. 

Sen. John Kerry (D) attends a rally with CALIFORNIA Democratic gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides in Los Angeles today.  With Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) ahead in the polls, the Sacramento Bee says it's not "polite" to speculate which Democrats might decide to run in 2010.  "But politics isn't polite to begin with...  At the Capitol, early talk has Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom on a short list." 

One of CONNECTICUT's largest unions has switched its support from Sen. Joe Lieberman to Democratic nominee Ned Lamont. 

A new poll by the Des Moines Register shows that Rep. Jim Nussle (R) and Secretary of State Chet Culver (D) are tied in IOWA's gubernatorial race. 

Vice President Cheney appears at fundraising receptions for the MAINE GOP and for vulnerable GOP Rep. Don Sherwood in PENNSYLVANIA.  Both events are -- you guessed it -- closed press.  Per the AP, Cheney's stop in Maine will raise about $100,000 for candidates for the state legislature.

Just days before the vote, new polling in the MASSACHUSETTS Democratic gubernatorial primary shows former assistant US Attorney General Deval Patrick, who's African-American, leading his two rivals. 

In NEW JERSEY, vulnerable Sen. Bob Menendez (D) holds a press conference with former Ambassador Joe Wilson, husband of outed CIA officer Valerie Plame, to protest Menendez challenger Tom Kean, Jr.'s fundraiser in Manhattan with Karl Rove later today.  The Los Angeles Times covers WASHINGTON STATE's lone hot congressional race, in which the GOP incumbent recently held closed-press events with Rove and his Democratic challenger sought to make an issue of Rove's visit. 

In TEXAS, political campaigns are taking a breather and suspending TV advertising until Tuesday out of respect for the late Gov. Ann Richards (D), whose memorial service will be held in Austin today.  Close Bush friend and former Commerce Secretary Don Evans of Texas will represent the Bushes.  Among others on the bipartisan attendance list is Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean.

On the heels of the candidates' debate on NBC's Meet the Press yesterday, a couple of big papers look at how the VIRGINIA Senate race is now competitive. - New York Times and Washington Post 

And the Sunday Washington Post looked at how the race has transformed "the image of the independent blogger, clicking away on his own dime from his basement," and is testing "the boundaries of federal campaign finance laws as blogs that once were personal diaries have come to resemble full-blown campaign operations that don't have to be reported as expenses." 

MSNBC's Hardball follows up on the Meet the Press debate today with the debut of a series of looks at the key Senate races, starting with Virginia.

Roll Call reports that his ties to Jack Abramoff aside, "it was two gambling trips to London in 2003 that proved to be the most damaging to" the legal case of GOP Rep. Bob Ney.  "During those 2003 trips, Ney and two aides... were given thousands of dollars in gambling chips by what the Justice Department called a 'foreign businessman.'"  More: "Ney, who at press time had not resigned his seat in the House, will appear before a federal judge on Oct. 13 to formally submit his plea deal to the court."

The Washington Post front-pages its look at how the ethics issue has faded over the course of the year.  "The Abramoff scandal, having ended the careers of a few lawmakers and stained the reputations of several others, can certainly rile up ardent Democrats...  But it is not making fundamental changes in the nation's partisan landscape, especially in races... in which candidates are facing only unsavory stories rather than indictments or guilty pleas."

[excerpt]

The AP takes its turn predicting that "the next presidential campaign," which "could cost each nominee $500 million," "could mark the first time in 30 years that the Democratic and Republican nominees turn down the Presidential Election Campaign Fund's millions in both the primary and the general elections."  And the story notes that McCain, whose "name is synonymous with tough election laws that have banned parties from collecting unrestricted and unlimited amounts of money... is among those prepared to forgo the public financing system in 2008."

The New York Daily News notes that former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's September 11 aura "is facing a challenge from critics who say he wasn't prepared for the attacks and downplayed health risks in the aftermath.  His allies dispute the claims. But within his circle, some are worried that a political opponent could hit Giuliani where he's strongest.  'The term being used within Giuliani's circle is "swift boat,"' said a Republican insider familiar with conversations among Giuliani's aides." 

[/excerpt

The AP takes its turn predicting that "the next presidential campaign," which "could cost each nominee $500 million," "could mark the first time in 30 years that the Democratic and Republican nominees turn down the Presidential Election Campaign Fund's millions in both the primary and the general elections."  And the story notes that McCain, whose "name is synonymous with tough election laws that have banned parties from collecting unrestricted and unlimited amounts of money... is among those prepared to forgo the public financing system in 2008."

The New York Daily News notes that former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani's September 11 aura "is facing a challenge from critics who say he wasn't prepared for the attacks and downplayed health risks in the aftermath.  His allies dispute the claims. But within his circle, some are worried that a political opponent could hit Giuliani where he's strongest.  'The term being used within Giuliani's circle is "swift boat,"' said a Republican insider familiar with conversations among Giuliani's aides." 

Presidential candidate and former Sen. John Edwards (D) takes part in a New York Times panel discussion called, "American Middle Class: At Risk?" 

Al Gore's next book, "The Assault on Reason," is due out in May, and "both the subject matter and the timing of the release have an unmistakable subtext," the Washington Post says.  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/16/AR2006091600877.html

Sen. Barack Obama (D) talked about how his party needs to get tougher on national security at the famous Harkin Steak Fry in Iowa yesterday.  The Chicago Tribune: "Obama, who was the featured speaker at Sen. Tom Harkin's annual steak fry, has repeatedly said he is not a presidential candidate for 2008 and that he has no interest in running.  Yet his invitation to speak at Harkin's showcase event has only elevated Obama's profile."  http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/chi-0609180185sep18,1,7028190.story?coll=chi-news-hed

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
The Democratic leadership has selected House candidate Chris Murphy to deliver the party's response to President Bush's weekly radio address tomorrow morning. Democrats often assign the radio response to candidates they wish to showcase, and Murphy, a state senator, is giving Rep. Nancy Johnson (R) of Connecticut one of the toughest races of her career. Her seat is one of three held by the GOP that Democrats hope to pick up in the state.

What's notable about Murphy's response is that at a time when Bush and the GOP are working hard to focus the midterm election debate on security issues, Democrats are using their radio address to talk about a domestic issue -- in this case, Medicare premiums (an issue which has particular resonance in Johnson's race because she chairs the Ways and Means health panel and helped steer Bush's Medicare prescription-drug law through the House). Not only that, but a Democratic source tells First Read that they will devote part of their next three weekly radio responses to the economy.

President Bush told reporters in his press conference this morning that he "certainly (hopes) this election is based upon economic performance," because of his confidence that Americans will recognize how his Administration has boosted the economy, he said.

From NBC's Chip Reid
Sen. John McCain was rushing to catch a plane Friday afternoon, but he stopped in a Senate hallway long enough to give me his response to the President's press conference on interrogation of detainees.  McCain has been one of the leaders of the "revolt" against the president's interrogation policy.

He clearly wasn't persuaded by anything the President said.  "This is a matter of conscience," he said.  And anyone who's followed McCain over the years knows that when he says something is a matter of conscience, that means he's not in a compromising mood.

"They want to amend the Geneva Conventions," he said, sounding exasperated. "The question here is whether the United States will challenge this long-standing treaty, and  encourage other nations to do the same."  He gave this example: Imagine that a member of the U.S. Special Forces is captured while snooping around a suspected Iranian nuclear research site.  If nations have the right to re-interpret the Geneva Conventions as they please, he said, then Iran could interpret Article 3 to allow pulling out two fingernails during interrogation, but not three.

Perhaps not a likely scenario, but the point he says is that we can't just focus on the battle with al Qaeda.  The U.S. will, in all likelihood, find itself be in a conventional war again someday.  And U.S. troops will be taken prisoner.  He says he's fighting this battle now so U.S. troops will be protected by the Geneva Conventions then.

McCain says he is not trying to stop the CIA interrogation program, that he favors amending the War Crimes Act to make sure that interrogators are protected from civil suits and criminal charges.  Sounding a bit angry, or at least deeply frustrated, he told me it's "unfair of the them (the Administration) to say that under my plan we'd have to shut down the CIA interrogation program."

At times he sounded like reluctant warrior, forced into battle by conscience and principle. "I don't want a fight with the President. I don't seek a fight with the President. I want us to work it out", he said.  No, he hasn't spoken directly to the President, but he has been in touch with others in the White House.  And while he says he'd like to find a compromise, he said at this point "it's hard to figure a way" to get there, at least on the Geneva Convention issue.

Just about every article on McCain and this issue reminds readers that he was brutally tortured during his years as a prisoner of war in Vietnam, the suggestion being that it's a reason, or perhaps the reason, he's in this fight. But when I asked him if his personal experience with torture contributed to his strong feelings on this issue, he replied: "No. No more than Colin Powell or  Gen. Vessey (another former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs who supports McCain in this effort), or anyone else who has been to war and commanded troops."

As he walked away (his staff hurrying him along, nervous he might miss his plane) I asked if he's worried about this hurting him on the Presidential campaign trail.  He simply shook his head and kept walking.

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Republican Rep. Bob Ney has become the first sitting lawmaker to face criminal charges in the Jack Abramoff influence-peddling scandal. Ney, who plans to retire from Congress this fall, is pleading guilty to conspiracy and making false statements. "Congressman Ney and his co-conspirators engaged in a long-term pattern of defrauding the public of his unbiased, honest services as an elected official," per Assistant Attorney General Alice Fisher. He faces a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison, a fine of $500,000, and supervised release following his incarceration.

Back in January when Abramoff did his perp walk, House Republicans went into a frenzy to draft lobbying and ethics reform legislation, fearing that Democrats' charges of a "GOP culture of corruption" would stick and that they would face fallout from the Abramoff scandal in the coming elections. The upshot of that frenzy was a House resolution yesterday -- not a new law -- calling simply for the disclosure of information about who's requesting targeted spending projects. The fizzling of the frenzy reflects how the whole ethics issue has faded. The scandal has taken down Abramoff himself, Ney's former chief of staff, and a couple of aides to then-Rep. Tom DeLay (R) -- all of whom are named as Ney's co-conspirators. It also was probably one reason why DeLay opted to resign from Congress in June. It has not -- not yet, at least -- resulted in the kind of damage to the GOP ranks that they had once feared.  Still, Congress' job approval rating in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll is just 20%.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Fifty-three days until election day... With Republican efforts to focus the midterm election agenda on security issues suddenly threatened by a rift within their own party over detainee trial policy, a rift which pits the White House against John McCain and Colin Powell, President Bush's suddenly scheduled 11:15 am press conference seems like an attempt to get things back on track before he heads to the United Nations next week. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that Bush will make a short opening statement to further explain his proposed legislation on the military tribunals as well as on the "terrorist surveillance program;" will recap the week with references to his visits to the September 11 attack sites; and will preview his UN appearance.

Bush has nothing else on his public schedule between now and his departure for New York, where on Tuesday, he will deliver the address to the UN General Assembly that aides have billed as the capstone of the series of speeches he's giving to try to build support for the war in Iraq as central to the war on terror. In a possible effort to sustain this campaign beyond his UN visit, the White House yesterday formally announced a pair of late September meetings for Bush with key leaders in the WOT, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf and President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan.

In advance of his UN appearance, the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Bush's standing on "being a world leader in dealing with other countries" has dropped since January. Back then, 38% of registered voters rated him positively on that score and 45% rated him negatively. Now, his rating is 31% positive, 46% negative.

Laura Bush also will be seeing plenty of world leaders in New York. We've written before about how her continued popularity -- among the most visible figures of the Bush Administration, she and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice remain the best liked by far -- has put her in high demand on the campaign trail, especially for Republicans in swing areas who wouldn't necessarily want her less popular husband to come stump for them. Yet another reflection of this sustained goodwill for Mrs. Bush is that she's still able to use her bully pulpit to focus on the issues she cares about, as demonstrated by her ambitious schedule next week.

Her itinerary includes a Wednesday appearance with former President Clinton at his annual global initiative conference, where they'll jointly announce what White House aides say will be a "very significant" effort to deal with the need for clean water in sub-Saharan Africa, NBC's O'Donnell reports. Details are TBD, apart from that the effort will be publicly and privately funded. Clinton called Mrs. Bush directly "several months ago" to ask her to participate, say her aides.

Mrs. Bush is also the honorary ambassador for the UNESCO "decade of literacy." With aides saying they want the post to be more than a title, she will host a Monday conference on literacy at the New York Public Library. Among the attendees will be 34 "First Spouses" and 30 education ministers from around the world, aides tell O'Donnell. Between Monday and Wednesday, she'll also host a roundtable on the humanitarian crisis in Burma, ring the New York Stock Exchange closing bell, and accept an award for promoting literacy.

As her husband edges closer to official lame-duck status after the midterm elections, senior advisors to Mrs. Bush acknowledge that for her, deep into the second term, "You are freed up to do more of the things that you really want to do. And given that, she has a little bit more of that freedom to act on things that have been her great interest and great passion particularly in the area of education," one of them tells O'Donnell. Aides also say they are "conscious of the time that's left." Along with her already mentioned pet issues of literacy and global health, Mrs. Bush is focusing on showing the American public what their tax dollars do around the world through foreign aid, and has visited 27 countries solo to see the impact of US assistance.

In stark contrast to Mrs. Bush, Vice President Cheney continues to travel around the country raising money for his party beyond the public eye. He has two fundraising appearances in California today, a reception for Republican governors at a private home in Los Angeles and a reception for the Republican National Committee in Menlo Park. Both are closed to press. As we noted yesterday, the White House is making Cheney's fundraisers closed press and his airport arrivals and departures, at which he rarely makes any comments, open to press. It'll be the same drill on Monday when he travels to party events Maine and Pennsylvania. The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll offers one possible explanation for why: Cheney is rated positively by 34% of registered voters and negatively by 50% of them.

Got calendar?

As NBC's Ken Strickland previewed here Thursday morning, a rift over detainee trial policy between the White House and a key handful of Senate Republicans led by Sen. John McCain emerged with a bang yesterday. The split also pits ex-Secretary of State Colin Powell against his former Administration, and leaves Republicans very publicly divided over a major aspect of the war on terror. At the same time, the House next week is expected to pass a bill that looks like the White House version. and

"Republicans had hoped the vote would be a chance to point out differences with Democrats over national-security issues, but, in fact, it won't be so clear-cut," the Wall Street Journal says. "Democrats spoke little, but tried to counter Republican attempts to paint them as obstructionists... White House spokesman Tony Snow said Mr. Bush won't support the Senate plan, which the administration contends would end the Central Intelligence Agency's program to collect information from captured al Qaeda leaders." 

The Washington Times reports, "A Capitol Hill source said that after two weeks of fruitless negotiations with Mr. McCain, the White House has decided to instead have the fight in public and make its case directly."

The Financial Times says McCain "has dramatically raised the stakes in a fight with the White House over interrogation techniques permitted for use at secret [CIA] prisons by saying he is unwilling to back down on the issue even if it ruins his chance of becoming president... [T]wo people briefed on conversations that Mr McCain had with his staff said the senator told aides he was willing to risk the presidency, because of possible loss of support from Republican lawmakers and voters." (Note that McCain lately seems to be carefully picking his spots on which to lean more to the right and on which to be the maverick.)

On the subject of Iraq, speaking with reporters yesterday in Washington, moderate GOP Rep. Chris Shays "was upset because news accounts after his August trip to Iraq, his 14th since the war began, suggested he had dramatically changed his position" by calling for a realistic timetable for US troop withdrawal. "Since he faces Democrat Diane Farrell in November, an election that's rated too close to call, Shays' view was widely portrayed as a last-minute election year conversion. Not so, he insisted over and over again," saying "he's a thoughtful congressman whose position has evolved."

Farrell held a conference call in which she argued that Shays had indeed undergone an election-year conversion. "He has been a supporter of the war from Day One," she told reporters. "And I have not." Regarding Shays' call for a timetable, she added: "I've been talking about that for months, and he's finally come to the party."

Similar to the findings of the July NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, a new nonpartisan Pew survey shows marked pessimism about the future. "Just under half of US adults rate the quality of the life they expect to be leading five years from now higher than their current quality of life... The finding contrasts with 61 per cent four years ago, marking the sharpest downturn in personal optimism in more than 40 years."

Ford announced this morning that it "plans to cut its salaried work force by a third, eliminating roughly 14,000 positions, as the nation's second-biggest auto maker tries to accelerate its restructuring to head off a deepening financial crisis." (Remember that the White House has said it won't meet with the Big Three till after the election.) 

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, two months into his new gig, "is taking control of the Bush administration's economic policy, moving some meetings of White House advisers to the Treasury building. He is also more willing than Snow to acknowledge economic problems, such as the gap between rich and poor," says Bloomberg.

The House has voted to authorize -- emphasis on "authorize" -- the construction of 700 miles of fencing along the border with Mexico. That doesn't mean the fence is necessarily going to be built since, as NBC's Mike Viqueira points out, a fence will cost around $10 million per mile, meaning that this fence would cost around $7 billion. And the Senate has yet to act.

"The 283-138 vote demonstrated that even as Capitol Hill remained deadlocked over what to do about the millions of illegal immigrants already in this country, bipartisan support existed for significantly toughening border security, especially as the November election neared."

The Washington Times notes that "[w]hen the House last year approved its border-security legislation, it included almost exactly the same fencing," and that many Democrats at that time "said the fence proved that Republicans harbored a hostility toward immigrants. But by yesterday, more than 20 Democrats had switched their position." Among them: Rep. Harold Ford, "the Tennessee Democrat who is running for the Senate, said, 'For the country to be secure, we have to have control over who gets in and who's allowed to stay.'" And Rep. Alan Mollohan, a West Virginia Democrat who faces a tough race, "said he supported yesterday's fence bill because it 'makes a statement for consideration' of increased funding and even tougher illegal-immigration enforcement measures." Mollohan also said, "'The election two months away has something to do with everything we do up here.'"

On Monday, the Center for American Progress will hold a conference on how the next Congress should organize its efforts to conduct oversight. Speakers will include academics, GAO Comptroller General David Walker, former Reps. Mickey Edwards (R) and Martin Frost (D), and House Government Reform Committee ranking member Henry Waxman (D).

With Republicans charging that a Democrat-run House would run rampant investigating the Administration and GOP members, and CAP being a "progressive" think-tank loaded up with Democratic former Hill, White House and campaign aides, we wondered if this conference were organized to respond to that charge. CAP senior fellow Scott Lilly told First Read that the conference will address the organization of oversight regardless of which party is in the majority: "We are nonpartisan and wish to see improved governance regardless of which political party is in power." Lilly says the conference was planned six months ago -- i.e., before Republicans began talking about Democrat-driven investigations -- as a follow-up on a previous conference on checks and balances.

"If we dispel some of the misinformation that is being bandied about that will be useful," Lilly said, "but we are also seriously committed to seeing better and more effective oversight regardless of the election out come and concerned that neither party is as competent or as committed to that goal as we would like."

The Washington Post's Milbank cheekily points out how "Democrats have had more 'New Directions' recently than MapQuest. Among the party's campaign slogans this year: 'Culture of Corruption,' 'Culture of Cronyism,' 'Do-Nothing Congress,' 'Rubber-Stamp Congress,' 'Together, We Can Do Better,' 'Together, America Can Do Better' and, most recently, 'Six for '06'... By contrast, Republicans have settled on a single, unofficial slogan, which essentially says: Vote Democrat and Die."

NBC's Mike Viqueira reports that indications are that embattled Rep. Bob Ney (R), who opted to retire from Congress rather than try to win re-election while mired in the Jack Abramoff scandal, is close to a plea agreement with federal prosecutors. If he does so, he would be the first sitting member of Congress to fall to this investigation. Recall that former House aides and associates have pled guilty to providing Ney with "a stream of things of value" in exchange for official acts, Viq reminds us. But this is not a done deal yet: Negotiations have come close before, only to fall apart. Viq adds that Ney is in rehab in Ohio for alcohol abuse.

The Cleveland Plain Dealer says Ney's "plea agreement was ready to be publicized on Thursday, but an announcement was delayed to avoid influencing a special election in Ney's congressional district."

The Columbus Dispatch reports that state Sen. Joy Padgett (R) -- the favorite -- overwhelmingly won that election to replace Ney on the ballot. She will now face Zack Space (D) in the general election, which could be a tougher race for Democrats without Ney. Another lawmaker will alleged ties to Abramoff, Rep. John Doolittle (R), will have President Bush raise campaign funds for him in October, writes the Sacramento Bee. "Doolittle said the event could raise as much as $500,000 for the general election battle, enough to erase any doubts that he may be in trouble this fall because of his close association with… Abramoff and [military contractor] Brent Wilkes.

Meanwhile, that burst of energy with which House Republicans first tried to tackle ethics and lobbying reform back in January after Abramoff's perp walk has finally produced... not very much. With the help of a bunch of Democrats, Republicans yesterday passed a resolution requiring disclosure for earmarks in tax and spending bills.

Bloomberg profiles CALIFORNIA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger "in the process of another re-invention: moving toward Democratic policies even as he runs for re-election as a Republican... 'I never got into that whole thing about `the Republican way is the only way to go,' he says. 'As a matter of fact, I always said both parties have something to offer and the person that really can combine the two is really the smart one.'"

Presidential candidate John Edwards (D) campaigns for his party's gubernatorial nominee, Jim Davis, in FLORIDA today. The Miami Herald says Davis' decision to choose state Sen. Daryl Jones as his running mate could make news if the duo wins in November because Jones would be the first African-American lieutenant governor in the state. Davis' opponent, Attorney General Charlie Crist (R) "is already well-regarded among many black leaders for his civil-rights stances."

MASSACHUSETTS Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) is jumping the gun, launching a negative attack ad against Democratic candidate Chris Gabrieli even before next week's primary. Gabrieli aides were "delighting" because they see "her strategy as evidence that he is the strongest Democrat in the race. Healey's aides insisted that the ad was a response to television attack ads aimed at her this week by a Democrat-connected union group."

On Saturday, former President Clinton will stump for Democratic candidates in MINNESOTA and OHIO.

During her primary campaign, NEW YORK Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) didn't acknowledge her opponent. But in her general election contest against John Spencer (R), the New York Times says, her campaign has signaled a much more aggressive posture and has even agreed to at least one debate. "The contrasting responses suggest that the Clinton camp may be happy to confront Mr. Spencer, a conservative, to highlight Mrs. Clinton's fight against those allied to the Bush administration."

Also in New York, the Democratic House campaign committee has said it will spend hundreds of thousands in advertising to defeat Rep. John Sweeney (R) "after some Democrats argued that national party leaders were making a mistake... by failing to more aggressively support the woman challenging Mr. Sweeney, of the Albany area, and a handful of other candidates facing Republican incumbents."

The Washington Post covers PENNSYLVANIA Democratic Senate nominee Bob Casey Jr. speaking at Catholic University's law school yesterday about abortion and in defense of a place for religion in politics. "Casey's candidacy is viewed by Democratic strategists not only as one of the party's best opportunities to pick up a Senate seat, but also as an illustration of its growing inclusion of politicians who oppose abortion and of its desire to reach out to religiously motivated voters."

On Sunday, VIRGINIA Sen. George Allen (R) and his Democratic opponent Jim Webb debate on Meet the Press.

Out and about this weekend: Sen. Chris Dodd (D) in New Hampshire, Sen. John McCain (R) is in New Hampshire and Vermont, Sen. Barack Obama (D) is at the famous Harkin steak fry in Iowa, and former Gov. Mark Warner (D) is in Virginia. Check the calendar for details.

The Chicago Tribune says Illinois Comptroller Dan Hynes (D), who ran against Obama for the party's Senate nomination in 2004, is urging Obama to run for president just days before he departs to Iowa for the big steak fry. "The comments from Hynes are among the strongest to date from a Democratic official about the prospect of an Obama presidential bid."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
The House has voted to authorize the construction of 700 miles of fencing along the border with Mexico, NBC's Mike Viqueira reports.  But that doesn't mean that the fence is necessarily going to be built.  First, this bill simply "authorizes" the construction of the fence -- it doesn't pay for it.  A fence will cost around $10 million per mile.  That means this fence would cost around $7 billion.  Congress plans to appropriate $1 billion for that purpose this year.

Second, the Senate has yet to act.  And third, this can be seen in a political context: Back in December, the House passed the same measure in it's border security bill.  Today they have "broken out" that provision and passed it separately.  Expect House Republican leaders to soon begin outlining what other border security measures they plan to push through before the election.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Fifty-four days until November 7... President Bush meets with the House Republican rank-and file one last time before they disperse for the midterm elections. The next time he sees them, they may be in the minority. But for an election that's shaping up like 1994, Bush and Republicans are making a run at turning it into 2002. For all the signs pointing to substantial losses for Republicans in November, the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows they have modestly improved their standing by taking advantage of current circumstances to focus the agenda on national and homeland security and frame that debate in terms most favorable to them. Whether or not their efforts will stick as the September 11 anniversary fades remains to be seen; the environment continues to favor Democrats even if the current debate is helping Republicans.

As the political climate turned increasingly grim for the GOP over the course of the year, Democrats decided to let the winds of change work in their favor without staking out a unified position on the Iraq war or making a sustained push on domestic issues. They have instead tried to go toe-to-toe with the Administration on security. Bush and Republicans are now filling that resulting issues vacuum, capitalizing on the bully pulpit and the September 11 anniversary. The scope of their losses on election day may depend in part on whether Democrats head into the final stretch debating the GOP on its preferred security issues, as presidential nominee John Kerry did in 2004, or focusing on their own. The poll shows Democrats with wide leads on dealing with Social Security and the economy; Republicans hold slimmer advantages on dealing with Iraq and terrorism.

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After a week-long effort to cast the unpopular war in Iraq as central to the broader war on terror, Bush and Republicans are seeing small improvements by many standard measures in the NBC/Journal poll, which was conducted in the days leading up to the 11 anniversary (September 8-11 of 1,009 registered voters). Bush's job approval rating is now 42%, up two points among registered voters since July. His approval ratings on Iraq and foreign policy are up a few points apiece. Twenty-five percent of those polled now say their vote for Congress will be a vote to signal support for Bush, up four points since July; 37% say they are voting to signal opposition to Bush. Republicans continue to trail Democrats on the question of which party voters prefer to have in control of Congress, though by nine points, their narrowest margin since April.

"This is still a very difficult national environment" for Republicans, says NBC/Journal pollster Bill McInturff (R), but he sees "a little bit of cohesion" in the data causing a "modest uptick." They are pushing to make the election about the war on terror, he says, "because it's the one frame that pushes key voter groups toward the Republican position."

Co-pollster Peter Hart (D) agrees that "there's a difference in the environment today than there was in July or earlier this year, maybe not because voters are reassessing Bush as much as listening to the debate which is coming out of the executive branch" via Bush and other Administration spokespeople on security issues. Hart points out that Bush's standing on a handful of personal attributes like leadership and being honest and trustworthy hasn't really changed since January.

"In a campaign, you can pick what you fight about," McInturff explains, and "you're a heck of a lot better fighting around a dimension where you are on comfortable terrain where people conclude you must be better at it." Democrats' decision (after much internal debate) not to offer a unified position on Iraq "has consequences," he says. Right now, by 42%-37%, more voters say they're more concerned that Democrats "have offered no specific plans or programs to deal with the issues facing the country" than they are concerned that Republicans "have offered no changes that they would make to deal with issues facing the country."

Several factors could curtail Bush and Republicans' success in focusing on security for a third election cycle in a row. Their arguments about Iraq are resonating less as the public's unhappiness about the war increases. It remains the top concern for voters and despite four Bush speeches, there's been no uptick in confidence that the conflict will come to a successful conclusion. Only one-third of those polled see it as helping the United States win the war on terror. Also, as Hart points out, the Administration "struck one false note with the American public" with its recent comparison between the war in Iraq and the fight against Nazism and fascism; 61% call that comparison "inappropriate" and "made to justify the Bush policy in Iraq."

Third, two of Bush's top messengers on national security issues, Cheney and Rumsfeld, receive higher negative ratings than positive ratings in the poll. There's "one star in the Administration," Hart says, and that's Rice, who receives a comparably stellar personal rating of 55% positive, 28% negative -- which probably explains why she's given a few big speeches stateside lately.

Got calendar?

Bush's meeting with House Republicans will take place behind closed doors. Also on his schedule today: a meeting with the President of South Korea and a social dinner honoring the Thelonius Monk Institute of Jazz. And don't be surprised to see the White House issue a statement about the passing of 73-year-old former Texas Gov. Ann Richards (D), who rhetorically whacked Bush's father at the 1988 Democratic National Convention ("Poor George, he can't help it. He was born with a silver foot in his mouth") and then lost to the son in 1994. The Dallas Morning News has an in-depth obit of Richards:

The Financial Times, reporting on the Bush/GOP full-court press on security, notes, "Bush is not expected to play a prominent role on the campaign trail over the next seven weeks."

Vice President Cheney heads west later today for GOP events in California tomorrow. Although his airport arrivals and departures -- at which he doesn't usually offer comments -- are open to press, his events tomorrow on behalf of the Republican National Committee and GOP governors are closed-press.

One expected topic for Bush and House Republicans today will likely be the White House bill on military trials for detainees, which is expected to come up for a House committee vote. The Senate Armed Services Committee, on the other hand, is expected to pass a bill today that's at odds with the Administration's in some fundamental ways, reports NBC's Ken Strickland

There are other differences between the bills over access to classified information and the use of testimony obtained through coercion. McCain believes their legislation will not only protect CIA operatives from lawsuits, but would also protect CIA and US service personnel captured and tried in future conflicts. "That's why I feel so strongly," he said. Warner said all sides agree on 90% of the issues and the remaining conflicts can be bridged, calling them "honest differences of opinion." Graham said the Administration proposal "goes too far," and called on his colleagues to put politics aside when they'll have to choose between their bill and the one from the White House. "This is not about your re-election," said Graham.

On another note, Sen. John Kerry (D) will talk about the war in Iraq and propose sending US troops to Afghanistan in a speech at Howard University today. The Hill looks at how Democrats continue to turn to retired Gen. Wes Clark, another potential presidential candidate in 2008, when it comes to talking tough about Iraq and national security.

NBC's Mike Viqueira reported earlier on the growing hyperbole and silliness surrounding the House debate over security issues. Yesterday, Speaker Dennis Hastert compared Democrats to Japanese theater, referring to them as "the Party of Noh," an apparent play on words meant to get across the idea that Democrats have no positive agenda. (Hastert spent summers as an English teacher in Japan and has an interest in things Japanese, Viq noted.) Then, at a press conference about how the military is "broken" and "hollowed out" as a result of misguided Administration policies and budgeting, Rep. David Obey (D) of Wisconsin told reporters, "I come from the state of Joe McCarthy. I know a first-rate McCarthy when I see one, and I know a third-rate McCarthy when I see one. Yesterday," he said, in reference to House Majority Leader John Boehner's controversial comments, "we saw a third-rate McCarthy."

The House resolution commemorating the September 11 anniversary passed 395-22, despite Democrats' objections to language "praising the USA Patriot Act and other Republican-crafted security measures implemented since."

Today's target of the Republican National Committee's ongoing effort to cast would-be House Democratic committee chairs and other leaders as weak on security is Alcee Hastings. Hastings, a former federal judge who was impeached, may become chair of a Democrat-controlled House Intelligence Committee should current ranking member Jane Harman step aside.

House Republicans are expected to announce their plans on immigration reform today, Viq reports. As mentioned in First Read last week, they're likely to seek funds for more border fencing, surveillance, and agents; Senate/Bush initiatives for a guest-worker program and a path to citizenship are not likely to be included. The House GOP bill "authorizes" the construction of 700-plus miles of fencing. This is not a new initiative, Viq notes -- they are merely "breaking out" the portion of the immigration bill that they passed back in December and putting it on the floor.

Since July, Viq reminds us, Republicans have sought unique and innovative ways to promote their views on border control, staging two dozen hearings around the country when normal procedure would have dictated a conference with the Senate at that point in the process. A cynic might conclude that they never had any intention to work on a compromise with the President and the Senate, but instead have developed new communications channels to get through to Republican base voters who are in favor of a border security-only approach.

NBC's Chip Reid adds that Democrats are expected to make a fuss about the need for comprehensive immigration reform, but in the end, it would be hard for them to vote against this bill. And it's unlikely that Bush or the Senate would stand in the way of legislation securing the border this close to election day.

"Democrats noted that House Republicans were introducing their bill at a time when the GOP, vulnerable in several election campaigns, needed an issue to rally voters," says the Los Angeles Times.

The AP says the Senate showdown between Ben Cardin (D) and Michael Steele (R) in MARYLAND "could upset the usual political and racial alliances." But African-American rival Kweisi Mfume (D) immediately endorsed Cardin, which could help him with the black vote.

USA Today profiles Keith Ellison (D), who's likely to become the first Muslim-American member of Congress in November after a pro forma general election in his liberal MINNESOTA congressional district. "A criminal defense lawyer, he called for an immediate troop withdrawal from Iraq, universal health care and the impeachment of President Bush... Ellison says he never brought up his religion or his race... during the campaign. Voters did, however, ask about his position, as a Muslim, on Israel, the separation of church and state, abortion rights and gay rights. He says he supports them all."

In a memo to "interested parties," the Republican National Committee is touting its success in helping endangered Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) survive his primary in RHODE ISLAND. The RNC employed its vaunted "72-Hour Program" and new technologies to get out the vote for Chafee, a moderate who faced a tough challenge from populist conservative Stephen Laffey. The RNC has a couple of reasons to tout its success. As we wrote earlier, had the effort failed, nervous Republican incumbents everywhere might have begun worrying about the party's ability to get out the vote for them in November. Also, they might as well get their money's worth from the effort -- which probably cost them more than they can afford to spend on each and every big race in November. And third, the party's GOTV machine is one bright spot for Republicans at a time when they're looking at the prospect of serious losses come November, and in some hotly contested races, might make the difference between a loss and a win.

That said, recent campaign history has shown -- as with Howard Dean's orange-capped crusaders in Iowa -- that imported ground troops may not be as effective as homegrown ground troops, in part because they can lack enthusiasm and in part because they may not connect as well with the voters they're trying to turn out.

The Wall Street Journal points out that Laffey "ran as the kind of conservative the White House usually likes and... pledged to support the very Bush tax cuts Mr. Chafee opposed." As a result, the RNC's support "angered Laffey supporters and could deter them from voting in November when Mr. Chafee squares off with Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse." The story notes that "frustration among [conservative] voters has been mounting for years and covers issues such as government spending, the Iraq war and illegal immigration."

The Journal's editorial page says the test of whether the GOP will benefit for the pains it took to save Chafee will be if Chafee votes to confirm UN Ambassador John Bolton.

Chafee may have won his primary, but it's still tough to be a moderate these days, says the Los Angeles Times' Brownstein.

USA Today writes up the dynamic we've mentioned here about states rushing to meet new voting-equipment requirements and the possibility of real snafus at the polls in November. "Problems range from delayed delivery of new equipment to an insufficient supply of trained technicians to fix anticipated problems, voting experts say. Already this year, glitches have occurred in Arkansas, California, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and West Virginia. Maryland became the latest on Tuesday, when technical problems, human errors and staff shortages led officials to keep some polls open an extra hour."