Special to First Read from National Journal's The Hotline
It's been a long 48 hours for the House Republican leadership. It all started when the media began reporting on the inappropriate email and instant message exchanges between now-ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL) and an underage teenager..... The timeline of what Speaker Dennis Hastert knew and when he knew it, has seemed to change throughout the last 48 hours. Late 9/30 p.m., the Speaker's office released a fairly detailed explanation of when Speaker's office first learned of the complaint. But the explanation doesn't answer every question.

For instance, clearly, Foley's actions raised enough alarm bells that a number of investigating actions were started late last year and in early spring. In addition, ABC News reports that the 16-year-old page had been warned to watch out for Foley, suggesting that the congressman's behavior was an open secret among the folks that ran the page program. If this is true, it implies Foley's behavior was more systematic and known..... What isn't clear is why no one other than the clerk of the House and GOP Rep. John Shimkus (R-IL), the member in charge of the Page program, directly spoke with Foley.

More importantly, and this question may decide whether Republicans retain control of the House, how thorough was the investigation conducted by the clerk and Shimkus? What exactly did that "investigation" discover and/or conclude? It only took ABC News about a day to go from knowing nothing to knowing, well, too much about the contact Foley had with underage pages.....

Read carefully the details Hastert's office released regarding how they investigated the allegation. Is it really the regular practice of the House GOP leadership staff to keep the Speaker out of the loop when it comes to questionable conduct by Members?

Hastert is notoriously slow when encouraging a wounded member of his party to get going. From Tom DeLay to Bob Ney, Hastert never seems willing to push members into what needs to be done.....

It's important to note that when the House GOP leadership first apparently learned of something amiss with Foley and a page, the GOP leadership team was in flux..... Did the House GOP leadership vacuum that was created by DeLay's departure lead to a situation where no one was calling the political shots? And did that sense of chaos create anxiety, preventing Republicans from taking the steps necessary to protect these underage pages?

No doubt, every member of the House GOP leadership that knew of this Foley problem before this week regrets not pursuing a more thorough investigation. But isn't the argument Democrats will now make when reviving the "culture of corruption" tagline (or even a "culture of arrogance of power" tagline) is that the House GOP leadership just doesn't have the capacity or the intellectual curiosity to investigate questionable activity, whether it involves a member of their own caucus or more serious public policy concerns like the war in Iraq?

From NBC's Ken Strickland and Huma Zaidi
In a news conference today, Senate Democratic leaders lashed out against the Bush Administration, as they latched onto claims made in Bob Woodward's book "State of Denial" -- such as the Administration ignoring pleas that more troops were needed in Iraq to quell the insurgency there. These Democrats also renewed calls for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to be fired. Said Carl Levin, ranking member of the Armed Services Committee: "The President has got to end his stubborn insistence that things are going just fine in Iraq." And said Minority Leader Harry Reid: "It's time for the misleading, the mistakes, the misconduct to end."

But at his briefing today, White House press secretary Tony Snow compared Woodward's book to cotton candy, in that it "kind of melts on contact." He said allegations that the Administration ignored advice from military commanders are untrue. "The reason for not going with the suggestion is that the Generals and the military commanders had suggested a different course of action. But on the other hand, if you take a look at the arc of troops during that year, guess what happened? More troops were added during the course of the year," Snow said. "The President has also made it clear that he continues to respond, as Commander-in-Chief, to developments on the ground and to requests from commanders," he added.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Florida Rep. Mark Foley (R) has announced that he's resigning from the House, effective today. The motivation: The recent release of personal e-mails he sent to a male teenage page on Capitol Hill. Foley in his statement: "I am deeply sorry and I apologize for letting down my family and the people of Florida I have had the privilege to represent." Foley's district includes Martin County, St. Lucie County, and Palm Beach County. President Bush received 54% there in 2004, and Foley himself was re-elected with 68% that year.

The campaign of Tim Mahoney (D), who is challenging Foley for his seat, says their understanding of state election law is that the GOP can basically choose a replacement for Foley in that his name will stay on the November ballot, but the party will get to decide who receives his votes. So does this sudden shake-up improve Democrats' chances of winning this Republican-leaning seat? It's unclear today, though in the current political climate, any change could wind up having repercussions at the polls. What's for sure is that until now, national Republicans never expected to have to worry about this seat.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Thirty-nine days from election day...  After a week of minor bombshells, we're wondering if maybe October came a little early this year as far as surprises go.  From a political standpoint, the first reports on the National Intelligence Estimate gave Democrats ammunition for their effort to keep the public's attention focused on the unpopular war in Iraq and their argument that it has made America less safe.  The Bush Administration's declassification of further portions of the NIE helped them counter Democrats' arguments.  Bob Woodward's forthcoming book has the Administration back on the defensive by charging that they've been hiding the truth about the situation in Iraq. 

And now Jack Abramoff has reared his head again, to the possible detriment of the GOP, via a House committee report on White House contacts with the lobbyist.  (Which means that scandal-plagued Democratic Rep. William Jefferson is about to be thrust back into the spotlight by countering Republicans again.)

On the one hand, the impact of White House and GOP's month-long push to make fighting terrorism the central issue of the midterm elections has been blunted somewhat.  On the other hand, five and a half weeks before election day, Democrats are expending a lot of energy debating Republicans on Republicans' chosen turf.  From the bully pulpit that has served him well throughout September, President Bush himself is now calling Democrats "the party of cut and run."  His comment yesterday was striking given that he had previously refrained from using this GOP catch-phrase which oversimplifies the Democratic position on the war in Iraq (while at the same time, Republicans also like to point out that Democrats don't have a unified position on the war).  Also up until yesterday, Bush always made a point of saying he doesn't question Democrats' patriotism. 

At this writing, the President is about to give his first big speech on the war on terror since his address to the United Nations last Wednesday.  The speech was added to his schedule two days ago, probably in anticipation of having successes to tout on the legislative front as Congress prepares to leave town, including the defense spending bill and the detainee trial and treatment bill.  After the Senate passed the latter bill last night, the House is expected to approve it today and send it to Bush for his signature.  The House has also approved the NSA warrantless wiretapping bill, though it's not expected to clear Congress before they depart and its chances for passage during the lame-duck session are uncertain.  Bush's audience this morning -- again, a military one -- will be the Reserve Officers Association. 

A House Government Reform Committee report being released today finds that Abramoff had 66 contacts with White House staff over a three-year period in Bush's first term, including 10 contacts with Karl Rove, NBC's Mike Viqueira reports.  In all, Abramoff and his associates at lobbying firm Greenberg Traurig had 485 contacts with the White House from January 2001 to March 2004, 345 of which were in person.  Half of the face-to-face meetings involved meals or drinks.  The data comes from documents supplied to the committee by Greenberg Traurig, and offers great detail about the number and nature of the contacts gleaned from billing records and e-mails.

And we've got two midterm election notes for you: Sunday brings the next Meet the Press Senate debate -- this time between Sen. Mike DeWine (R) and Rep. Sherrod Brown (D) of Ohio.  The latest media poll in the state shows Brown leading DeWine by five points.  And on Monday morning, we'll be releasing the first battery of statewide polls conducted for MSNBC and polling partner McClatchy Newspapers by the opinion research firm Mason-Dixon.  The polls will cover the top Senate races, as well as the California governor's race.  Check MSNBC.com on Monday morning for your horse-race fix.

Got calendar? 

Summing up President Bush's striking speech in Birmingham, AL yesterday, the Los Angeles Times says that in addition to the "cut and run" line, he "angrily accused Democratic leaders... of misrepresenting" the NIE, "said they favored policies that would increase the nation's vulnerability to terrorist attacks," and "singled out statements by... the top Democrats on the House and Senate intelligence committees, although he quoted neither by name." 

Among the details in Woodward's new book, the New York Times says, is that the White House ignored a plea in November 2003 from a top adviser in Iraq that more US soldiers were needed there to stop the insurgency. 

On the detainee bill, the Financial Times reminds us that the Bush Administration had appeared to be on the defensive on the issue earlier this summer, but that a "turning point came on September 6, when Mr Bush reframed the debate about tribunals by announcing plans to transfer 14 high-profile al-Qaeda suspects... to Guantanamo Bay to await trial.  The move transformed an abstruse legal debate into a more personalised one about how to treat those accused of being behind the worst terrorist attack on US soil." 

The Los Angeles Times says "legal challenges almost assuredly will be pursued against the prosecution process." 

The New York Times notes that all the possible Democratic presidential candidates voted against the bill, while Sen. Joe Lieberman voted for it.  "It was a stark change from four years ago, when Mr. Bush cornered Democrats into another defining pre-election vote on security issues - that one to give the president the authority to launch an attack against Iraq." 

The Financial Times previews Bush's meeting today with Kazakh President Nazarbayev: "Mr Bush is expected to seek assurances that US oil companies' interests in huge Kazakh oil projects will be protected,... that Mr Nazarbayev will smooth negotiations for the delivery of his oil," and that Kazakhstan will "approve construction of a natural gas export pipeline across the Caspian." 

While Washington has focused intently on detainee and NSA policy, the Washington Post reports from a nine-day road-trip through the Ohio River Valley that the "debates over Iraq and President Bush shadow virtually every competitive race, but they do not dominate the conversation -- which suits many Democrats just fine.  This month's intense debate over policy toward terrorism detainees, meanwhile, carried hardly any echo at all." 

In his weekly National Journal column, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook repeats what he said earlier in the week: that if the focus in the next six weeks is on terrorism and falling gas prices, then Republicans will likely hold onto Congress; if it's on Iraq, they probably won't.  "My hunch is that the pendulum will swing halfway back, giving the Democrats a better than even chance of taking the House but making the Senate a longer shot."

In the competitive House contest in Iowa between Bruce Braley (D) and Mike Whalen (R), Sen. John McCain will hold a conference call with reporters, sponsored by the Iowa GOP, in which he'll criticize Braley for allegedly suggesting, per the Iowa GOP, that troop funding in Iraq should be cut off.  Will McCain do other conference calls for GOP candidates?  A spokesperson for the Republican National Committee said the party welcomes any help McCain can bring, but to the best of his knowledge, this is the only one planned so far.

Bloomberg points out, "None of the goals [Bush] set out in his January 2005 State of the Union address -- overhaul of the Social Security system, restructuring the tax code, reshaping medical-malpractice law -- was achieved.  Bush's proposed overhaul of immigration laws is in limbo because of divisions between House and Senate Republicans."  Also, the GOP Hill leadership was dealt a few blows: House Majority Leader Tom DeLay resigned and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist stumbled. 

The Los Angeles Times says the House GOP's border-fence bill might be approved by the Senate before the session ends -- or it might not.  A last-minute push to add a guest-worker program for agricultural workers to the bill could derail it.  The "move creates a dilemma for Frist, eager for victories to counter criticism of a GOP 'do-nothing Congress.'  It also highlights the long-standing tension over immigration that is coming to a head in these waning days of the 109th Congress." 

Along with his committee's report, House Government Reform chair Tom Davis (R) released a statement last night "portraying Abramoff's efforts to lobby the Bush administration as largely ineffective," Roll Call says.  "Davis also pointed out that Abramoff's billing records and e-mail exchanges do not mean that events unfolded as he claimed to either his firm or his clients."  Meanwhile, a "summary prepared for Democratic leaders by staffers for" ranking member Rep. Henry Waxman "stated that the information provided by the Abramoff documents may show wrongdoing on the part of top White House officials."  Top Bush officials "have denied having any close relationship with Abramoff." 

The Washington Post visits ethically challenged Democratic Rep. Alan Mollohan's district in West Virginia, where there's "only one way for Republicans to win...: convince voters that Mollohan is a crook...  Mollohan, a member of the Appropriations Committee, set up several nonprofit groups over the past decade or so to administer millions of dollars he was steering to his rural district."  Then his own net worth "ballooned," largely because of "real estate investments with one of those friends who benefited from his work in Congress.  Mollohan has denied any wrongdoing." 

And GOP Rep. Mark Foley "who was expected to cruise to reelection faced questions Thursday about the propriety of e-mails he sent to a teenage page on Capitol Hill, potentially adding to the GOP's political struggles as it attempts to maintain its congressional majority."  Foley's e-mails to the page included a request for a photo.  A Foley spokesman said the e-mails "reflected nothing more than an innocent interest in helping young people." 

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The Dow industrials closed yesterday at 11718.45, "their second-highest close on record and short of a closing level investors haven't seen since Jan. 14, 2000, when the blue-chip average closed at 11722.98 at the height of the dot-com bubble." 

In an interview yesterday with the Wall Street Journal, Bush "said he would speed up his alternative-energy push during the remainder of his term with new spending focused on easing bottlenecks that are slowing the spread of ethanol in the market."  He also "also damped speculation that his administration is exploring a major shift in global-warming policy."  And he "said he is interested in talking with" top auto industry executives "after the November elections, but he appeared to hold out little hope that the federal government would take the lead in relieving the companies of their huge legacy costs for retired workers." 

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The Dow industrials closed yesterday at 11718.45, "their second-highest close on record and short of a closing level investors haven't seen since Jan. 14, 2000, when the blue-chip average closed at 11722.98 at the height of the dot-com bubble." 

In an interview yesterday with the Wall Street Journal, Bush "said he would speed up his alternative-energy push during the remainder of his term with new spending focused on easing bottlenecks that are slowing the spread of ethanol in the market."  He also "also damped speculation that his administration is exploring a major shift in global-warming policy."  And he "said he is interested in talking with" top auto industry executives "after the November elections, but he appeared to hold out little hope that the federal government would take the lead in relieving the companies of their huge legacy costs for retired workers." 

"Bush is delivering two years early on his promise to cut the federal budget deficit below 2 percent of gross domestic product.," Bloomberg reports.  But: "The achievement may be short-lived because the deficit will widen again in the coming year."  Why?  "Tax receipts, which were running more than 10 percent ahead of last year for the entire first half of 2006, have since slowed." 

The Des Moines Register reports that several middle-class tax breaks will expire at the end of 2005, and "their renewal is stuck in an election-year standoff."  Even if Congress does take action before leaving town, it may be too late for the breaks to make it onto the IRS tax forms. 

The fact that his fundraiser for her was going to be closed to the media already suggested that perhaps she didn't want to appear in public with him.  But Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) wound up skipping her Bush-headlined fundraiser in Ohio altogether yesterday.  As reported here yesterday afternoon, Pryce told NBC's Viqueira that she had to "stand [Bush] up" or else her Democratic opponent "will make mincemeat out of me if I don't" vote on the NSA bill.  Her absence seemed to come as a surprise to the White House.  Pryce spokesman Rob Nichols later told NBC's Rosiland Jordan that Pryce made the decision to stay on the Hill to vote on the NSA bill because with every Democrat voting against it (he said), Pryce felt her vote was needed to ensure its passage.  Nichols also tried to suggest that Pryce isn't worried about whether her opponent might try to make hay out of her decision to stay in Washington because she was doing her job and wasn't trying to hide from anyone.

Bush's round of fundraisers this past week raised over $7 million, based on the pool reports.  USA Today, also noticing how many closed-press fundraisers Bush has done lately, reports that for this cycle, he has "headlined 68 political events - all fundraisers - benefiting 37 candidates, the national GOP, several state counterparts and the campaign arms of House and Senate Republicans.  Half of them overall have been closed to media coverage, with the percentage going up to nearly two-thirds in recent months." 

Democrats in California are preparing opposition for when Bush rolls into town next week to campaign for Reps. Richard Pombo and John Doolittle. 

USA Today says most members of Congress seeking higher office this year are having trouble because of their ties to Washington and, if they're Republican, to President Bush.

One of the overlooked but potentially competitive Senate races this cycle is in ARIZONA, where incumbent Jon Kyl (R) leads challenger Jim Pederson (D) by just single digits, according to some recent polls.  Pederson, in Washington yesterday, briefly chatted with First Read about his race.  On how he is withstanding charges from Kyl's camp that his support of the Senate immigration bill is supporting "amnesty:" "I've got to believe we're smarter than that, to withstand buzzwords like that...  Usually the tough talkers have something to hide."  And in this case, he says, it's Congress' failure to do anything on immigration.  And on Kyl using popular Sen. John McCain in his TV ads: "Maybe we should point out the differences between John McCain and Jon Kyl" -- on global warming, immigration, stem cells, and the budget deficit.

Per the Sacramento Bee, CALIFORNIA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) called Phil Angelides' (D) plan to bring home the state's National Guard troops from Iraq "'absolutely irresponsible.'"  Angelides returned the fire: "'It's irresponsible to continue to defend George W. Bush's failed policies in Iraq.  You disserve our nation and you disserve our troops.'"  Another Sacramento Bee article notes that corporate and campaign funds are being used to defray the costs of Schwarzenegger's bill-signing ceremonies.  

A poll released by Democratic state Sen. Ron Klein's campaign in FLORIDA shows him pulling even with his Republican opponent, Rep. Clay Shaw.  Shaw's camp "disputed the numbers," the Miami Herald notes.  "Both campaigns are hungry for money as they enter the final month before the election.  The dependence on television advertising makes the campaign one of the most expensive House races in the country." 

The Boston Herald has a little gotcha on MASSACHUSETTS Democratic gubernatorial nominee Deval Patrick.  A "Herald review of Patrick's voting record on file in his hometown of Milton shows he has skipped voting in at least seven local and state elections over the past 10 years, including the 1996 and 2000 presidential campaigns.  The 1996 missed vote is especially significant, because it shows Patrick apparently did not cast a vote for President Bill Clinton, who hired Patrick to work as a top Justice Department attorney in 1994." 

The Washington Times writes about the GOP's rare bright spot of MICHIGAN, where Democrats hold both Senate seats and the governor's mansion, and which is "suffering the worst economy of any state in the nation." 

The Washington Post rounds up the situation in the NEW JERSEY Senate race, which has become extremely close for such a blue state, largely because of ethical issues that have plagued Sen. Bob Menendez (D) and because some voters may think that GOP nominee Tom Kean, Jr. is really his father, the popular former governor.  Menendez just had to sever ties "with a longtime campaign associate who was taped seeking a political favor on his behalf."  Polls in the race show it basically tied.  Republicans are trying to stoke speculation that Democrats will seek to replace Menendez on the ballot. 

A New York Times/CBS poll finds Eliot Spitzer (D) blowing out John Faso, 64%-18%, in NEW YORK's gubernatorial race.  In the Senate race, incumbent Hillary Clinton (D) has almost as large a lead, 59%-27%, over opponent John Spencer (R). 

In VIRGINIA, Sen. George Allen (R) is now getting it from the other side -- regarding his comment that the Confederate flag has been a symbol of hate and intolerance.  "That infuriated the Sons of Confederate Veterans.  'We feel he's using our flag to wipe the muck from his shoes that he's now stepped in,' Frank Earnest, the Virginia division commander of the group, said Thursday.  Former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner campaigns today with Allen challenger Jim Webb (D). 

So far, Warner has been one of the few potential Democratic oh-eighters who hasn't stumped for Connecticut Senate nominee Ned Lamont (D) after his primary victory in August (although Warner did put out a statement after Lamont won and wrote him a check).  But yesterday, Warner's PAC sent out an e-mail entitled "Washington Needs Ned Lamont."  The e-mail praised Lamont's entrepreneurial approach to politics ("That's the approach we took in Virginia -- where we reformed the way government does business to achieve long term savings, and reformed our tax code") and his call for a withdrawal from Iraq ("I agree that we need a plan to get out of Iraq...  The current Republican leadership isn't making us safer").

With an easy cruise to re-election ahead of her, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) said yesterday she'll campaign for other candidates in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Florida in the last weeks before the election, reports the AP. 

Clinton says that despite her planned trips, she has no ulterior motives and is focused solely on the election in November.  She is also planning a fundraiser at her Washington mansion.  "'We feel that if we can raise another $5 million between now and the end of October, we will win races that nobody thinks we can,'" she said. 

And The State reports that "Strom Thurmond Jr. and Carroll Campbell III have joined" McCain's PAC.  "Thurmond's father, the late U.S. Sen. Strom Thurmond, and Campbell's father, the late Gov. Carroll Campbell, both supported George W. Bush in 2000. Bush, who went on to become president, defeated McCain in a pivotal South Carolina Republican primary." 

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
President Bush ratcheted up his rhetoric against Democrats at his fundraiser for Alabama Gov. Bob Riley in Birmingham today, in that he actually called the Democratic party "the party of cut and run." Until now, Bush had refrained from using this GOP catch-phrase which oversimplifies the Democratic position on the war in Iraq (particularly since Republicans also like to point out how Democrats don't have a unified position on the war). Bush has, up until now, made a point of saying he doesn't question their patriotism. Democrats, for their part, have been stepping up their charge that Bush and the GOP want to "stay the course" in Iraq.

Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, the Senate is expected to pass the compromise bill on detainee trials and treatment within the next half-hour or so...

From NBC's Rosiland Jordan
White House spokesperson Emily Lawrimore says of Rep. Deborah Pryce's now anticipated absence from her own fundraiser with the President in Ohio later today, "As Congress concludes its legislative session, President Bush understands that Representative Pryce has a responsibility to stay in Washington to vote on important legislation that will strengthen our national security."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
It's not totally unheard of for a member of Congress to have to skip his or her own fundraiser, even one with a high-profile guest, because of votes on the floor. Even so, it's notable that Rep. Deborah Pryce says she'll have to miss her own fundraiser with President Bush in New Albany, OH later today because she has to stick around the Hill and vote on the NSA warrantless surveillance bill. She said she has to "stand [Bush] up" or else her Democratic opponent "will make mincemeat out of me if I don't " vote on the NSA bill. Pryce is facing the toughest re-election campaign of her tenure due to the particularly bad climate for Republicans in Ohio, and her event with Bush was already scheduled to be closed to the media.

Her absence may come as a surprise to the White House, at least judging from spokesman Tony Snow's comments to the traveling press earlier today, in which he said the event is expected "to raise $500,000 for the reelection campaign and Ohio Victory 2006, which is a state party get out of the vote effort. Approximately 300 attendees." No mention of Pryce having to skip it.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Forty days out...  President Bush meets with the Senate GOP Conference this morning to talk about "shared priorities" and congratulate the lawmakers on this past session.  Chances are he'll urge them to pass his two legislative priorities, the NSA warrantless surveillance bill and the detainee trial and treatment bill.  The latter was passed by the House yesterday and is expected to get the Senate's approval today, but the former may be stalled until a lame-duck session, at least.  NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that Vice President Cheney will join Bush at the meeting.  Meanwhile, the politics of disclosure remains a running theme with the Bush White House, and not just with the National Intelligence Estimate, which they're declining to release in full.

After his meeting on the Hill today, Bush visits Alabama for a couple of events that might not seem quite so urgent now as they once did: a briefing on energy issues, followed by a statement, and a fundraiser for GOP Gov. Bob Riley, whom analysts expect to win re-election fairly easily.  The Riley fundraiser takes place at a convention complex in Birmingham and is open to the media.  Riley campaign spokesman Josh Blades tells First Read that they expect anywhere from 1,000 to 2,000 people to attend, but won't offer an estimate of how much they'll raise. 

The Riley event stands in contrast with another Bush fundraiser today and indeed, with the White House's current approach to fundraising.  Later this afternoon, Bush will stop in New Albany, OH to raise money for embattled Rep. Deborah Pryce, chair of the House Republican Conference.  Pryce is facing the toughest re-election battle of her tenure because of Ohio's lagging economy, because the state GOP is reeling from a series of scandals, and because Bush himself isn't too popular there.  Bush's appearance for Pryce will take place at a private home, as have the other events he's done this week for Republican campaigns in competitive states and districts.  The closed doors aren't curbing his fundraising ability -- four events between Monday and Wednesday raised a total of about $4.3 million, per pool reports -- but do curtail the media's and the public's ability to learn what he's saying, and suggest that these candidates don't want to be seen in public with him. 

The White House says that closing events to the media when they're held at private homes is standard operating procedure.  (Two upcoming fundraisers at private homes that will be headlined by Vice President Cheney also will be closed.)  A Clinton White House press staffer tells First Read that it was SOP for them, too -- until that fundraising scandal popped up, after which they made a point of allowing a print reporter into the events to serve as a pool correspondent for the White House press corps.

White House reporters have repeatedly asked the Bush press office for a transcript of his remarks during these closed events.  Spokesman Tony Snow has replied by telling them they'll get plenty of access to the campaigner-in-chief when he's on the trail in October.  His schedule for next week includes events for three Republican House members, one House candidate, and the party's gubernatorial nominee in Colorado.  But none of those races are competitive, at least right now.  The four Republicans running for the House are all expected to win, and the candidate for governor is badly trailing his Democratic opponent.

Somewhat ironically and probably unprecedentedly, Snow himself is also doing fundraisers, including closed-press events.  Per NBC's Kelly O'Donnell, Snow conceded that he knows of no other White House press secretary of either party who played that kind of political role while also serving the public.  He said this dual role was discussed at great length with White House counsel Harriet Miers and has Bush's OK.  He claimed his speeches will be "boring" and "not red meat" and that he will not be looking to pick political fights.  His first event was last week in Pennsylvania; last night, he did one for the Minnesota GOP. 

Once again in contrast to her less popular husband, Laura Bush stumps today for top GOP candidates in Iowa and Michigan and her events are all open-press. 

Got calendar? 

Bush played peacemaker over dinner last night with Presidents Karzai and Musharraf.  The Washington Times says things appeared tense when the three leaders faced the press.  "More than two hours after the dinner was scheduled to end, the White House said the three leaders had shared their views...  But when asked by reporters how long the dinner had lasted, White House spokesman Nicole Guillemart would not say." 

The "cherry-picking" debate continues over the NIE as the White House yesterday refused to release the rest of it, "saying that doing so would jeopardize the lives of agents who gathered the information.  Press secretary Tony Snow said releasing the full report... would also risk the nation's ability to keep secret its U.S. intelligence-gathering methods and 'compromise the independence' of those charged with analyzing intelligence."   

The New York Times says the release of the NIE "has threatened" the White House's plans to seize on national security this week.  "If anything this week, the back-and-forth between the parties - on the intelligence report, on the bills and on the war itself - seemed to produce at best a muddled result, rather than the sharp contrast that the White House had sought." 

A new congressional report says the United States is spending nearly $2 billion a week in Iraq, which is "twice as much as in the first year of the conflict three years ago and 20 percent more than last year," reports the Boston Globe.  Per the report, "a major factor in the growth of war spending is the result of a dramatic rise in 'investment costs,' or spending needed to sustain a long-term deployment of American troops." 

The Washington Post says of the House vote to approve the detainee legislation yesterday, "Republicans hope to campaign on the bill as proof of their party's tough stand against terrorists.  Many congressional Democrats decided to swallow their misgivings and vote for the bill to avoid being portrayed as less than vigilant against suspects captured in Afghanistan, Iraq and elsewhere." 

The part of the bill that "worries advocates" most is the "one stating that 'no court, justice, or judge shall have jurisdiction to hear or consider an application for a writ of habeas corpus filed by or on behalf of an alien detained by the United States who has been determined by the United States to have been properly detained as an enemy combatant or is awaiting such determination,'" writes the Boston Globe.

The Chicago Tribune is the latest to write how former President Clinton's "white-hot, finger-wagging interview" on FOX has thrust him into the midterm elections, "just as the Republicans appeared to be erasing some healthy Democratic advantages.  For some Democrats, that's just what they would like to see...  How far Clinton might be able to carry his party, however, is an open question." 

Sen. John Kerry (D) gives a speech on national security at Johns Hopkins'  School of Advanced International Studies this morning.  Per his office, he'll talk about "the need to redeploy from Iraq, refocus on Afghanistan, and... how central America's moral authority is to winning the war on terror.  Within that context, Kerry will discuss the Senate's debate on torture, arguing that 'there can be no compromise on torture, it is not who we are as a country' and will say that the compromise bill before the Senate does not go far enough when it comes to protecting American troops."

Democrats touted their military veteran House candidates yesterday.  The AP notes that most of them don't have a real shot at winning, while the party counters that all they need is a few. 

Leading with embattled Rep. Nancy Johnson of Connecticut, the Financial Times looks at how moderate Republicans are an increasingly endangered breed in Congress.  Losses by Johnson and her like-minded colleagues in the Northeast and elsewhere could cause "an ideological shift akin to the decline of the Democratic party in the south." 

Former Sen. John Danforth (R), who's promoting a new book, is telling audiences that the "potency of the Christian right in the Republican Party is limited" and "that the political center has a future."  An ordained Episcopal priest, Danforth in his book "describes religion as a divisive force in the United States today and accuses the religious right and its political supporters of creating a sectarian party."  His critics note that he served in the Senate when Democrats held the majority. 

House Democrats may have hoped to put a lid on leadership contests until after they see whether they're going to be in the majority next year, but the campaign for majority leader continues, and The Hill reports that liberal members "are not lining up behind Rep. Jack Murtha's (D-Pa.) leadership candidacy in the numbers he had hoped despite his outspoken stance against the Iraq war." 

Six years after the Florida recount, critics will argue at a House hearing today that the shift to electronic voting machines has actually increased the likelihood of another debacle, NBC's Chip Reid reports.  Millions of Americans will use the machines in November for the first time, and critics say they want a paper trail, at the very least.  Supporters of electronic voting say the machines are a vast improvement over hanging chads.

There's also concern about the ability of US troops serving overseas to cast absentee ballots, USA Today reports.  "Pentagon officials say the situation is particularly troublesome for troops in battle, who often are redeployed before mail reaches them." 

The chief House sponsor of the voter ID bill, which would require voters to show identification before voting in a federal election, responds in a USA Today op-ed to Democrat's charges that the bill would disenfranchise minority voters.  House Republicans are casting the legislation as a means of border security.  The paper's editorial page objects to the bill, saying supporters are creating a false sense of urgency about it. 

The New York Times front-pages that Democrats now think a Senate takeover is realistic.  But for that to happen, they have to hang onto New Jersey, which looks like a tougher challenge than it was two months ago. 

Stuart Rothenberg suggests that some races Democrats are touting as close and competitive may not turn out to be that close, in reality, with early solidification of the Democratic vote just making them appear that way.   

The gubernatorial race isn't the only statewide contest in CALIFORNIA worthy of national attention: Former Governor Moonbeam, Jerry Brown (D), is running for state attorney general.  "Brown has changed a bit," Bloomberg observes.  "Once known for his liberalism, environmentalism and often baffling political prose -- 'Ad astra per aspera' (To the stars, through the thorns) was his 1992 presidential campaign slogan -- Brown now chiefly devotes his life to fighting crime" as Oakland mayor.  "Brown's Republican opponent, State Senator Chuck Poochigian of Fresno, scoffs at the re-tooling of Brown, says it is all an act," and tries to tie Brown to Jane Fonda. 

Meanwhile, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) has outmaneuvered Democrat Phil Angelides on the environment, further gutting Angelides' central argument against the Governor: that he's too much like President Bush.  "Beyond the environment, analysts say, Schwarzenegger has also diverged from Bush's conservative path on abortion, gay rights and gun control, holding moderate or liberal stands.  At the same time, Schwarzenegger's opposition to tax increases has anchored his conservative support."  

The Los Angeles Times takes a long look at how COLORADO could be a source of Democratic gains this year and increase the party's beachhead in a previously GOP-leaning region of the country. 

In CONNECTICUT, the latest Quinnipiac poll has Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) leading Ned Lamont (D) by 10 points, 49%-39%.  "Lamont directed $750,000 toward his campaign this week.  Lamont, who spent almost $4 million of his own money defeating [Lieberman] in the primary, has written checks totaling $2.25 million for the general election." 

In the MARYLAND governor's race, in which incumbent Robert Ehrlich (R) is trailing Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley (D), Ehrlich "launched an appeal yesterday to black voters in Prince George's County and Baltimore with a radio ad suggesting that policing has become too aggressive in Baltimore under" O'Malley.  The 60-second ad is narrated by... a prominent black Baltimore lawyer who is a longtime friend of Ehrlich's." 

In MASSACHUSETTS, Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) is trying to distance herself from retiring Gov. Mitt Romney (R) on taxes as she seeks to replace him. 

In NEW JERSEY, the GOP Senate campaign committee (NRSC) is trying to stoke speculation that Democrats will seek to replace Sen. Bob Menendez on the ballot with a stronger candidate now that polls show Menendez trailing GOP nominee Tom Kean Jr.  The tactic is meant to remind voters of how Democrats switched out ethically challenged Sen. Bob Torricelli (D). 

Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean, Sen. Hillary Clinton, and NEW YORK House candidate Kirsten Gillibrand all address the DNC Women's Leadership Forum annual issues conference in Washington.  With blowouts expected in the state's other contests, its marquee race has become the showdown between Andrew Cuomo (D) and Jeanine Pirro (R) for attorney general.  But Pirro's chances may be slimmer now that federal prosecutors are investigating whether she and Bernard Kerik illegally taped conversations of Pirro's husband last year to see if he was having an affair. 

In TEXAS, the GOP House campaign committee has donated about $100,000 to help the write-in candidacy of Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R) in the race for former Rep. Tom DeLay's seat.  Also, Vice President Cheney is scheduled to headline a fundraiser for her next week. 

Meanwhile, independent gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman hit the trail with former Minnesota Gov. Jesse Ventura.  The AP says a "key element of the Friedman election effort, emphasized by Ventura, is getting college students who traditionally have avoided the polls to vote." 

And in VIRGINIA, now it's Democratic Senate candidate Jim Webb who's having a hard time explaining that he's never used a certain racial epithet.  Webb earlier "refused to say whether he had used the 'N-word,' but he insisted he has never used it as a racial epithet aimed at anyone." 

Fred Barnes says in the Wall Street Journal that "Mr. Allen is going on TV today with an ad zinging Mr. Webb for a 1982 article critical of women in the military, especially in combat.  The article used vivid language that shows, according to the ad, Mr. Webb is disrespectful and insulting to women."

NBC Nightly News anchor Brian Williams' interview with Elizabeth Edwards will air tonight on Nightly and tomorrow morning on TODAY.

The Republican National Committee has chosen to hold their 2008 convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul, leaving Democrats, who were also considering the Twin Cities, to choose between New York and Denver.  RNC co-chair Jo Ann Davidson yesterday rejected the idea that their surprise early announcement was really about laying claim to the Twin Cities before Democrats could, but the other cities on the RNC's list all had flaws.  The party is probably hoping to give GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty a boost in his tight re-election race, as well as send a message about the importance they place on the Midwest.  Democrats could send a similar message about the Mountain West by selecting Denver.  Indeed, Colorado seems poised to give them a new governorship and a new House seat to tout in November.  Or, they could fuel speculation about a (Hillary) Clinton presidential bid by choosing New York, which also will have a Democratic governor in Eliot Spitzer by 2008. 

Roll Call says Gov. Mitt Romney has quietly been reaching out to K Street for "policy and politics expertise and, ultimately, the help of some of K Street's biggest campaign fundraisers and their network of donors." 

The Washington Post says former President Clinton "is laying plans to celebrate his 60th birthday... with a charitable fundraising extravaganza in New York... that will include an invitation-only concert by the Rolling Stones and contributor packages that run to $500,000 and higher."  The three-day party will be co-hosted by Chelsea Clinton; proceeds will go to the William J. Clinton Foundation.  "The celebration of all things Clinton will come less than two weeks before Hillary Clinton is expected to cruise to reelection" and then "turn her attention to a possible 2008 presidential campaign." 

MSNBC.com notes how Senator Clinton has taken a high-profile role in this final week of the session. 

One-upping his rivals in numbers if not in tactics, Kerry is sending volunteer ground troops to 20 states. 

Democratic Sen. Barack Obama gets Washington Post Style-section treatment as his party's universal donor of charisma. 

From NBC's Mark Murray
In 1992, more than two dozen women -- most of them Democrats -- were newly elected to the House and Senate. That feat led to scores of news articles dubbing the election as the "Year of the Woman." This year, Emily's List, the Democratic group that promotes pro-choice female candidates, is arguing that the 14 female Democrats who are running for some of the most vulnerable GOP-held House seats in the country could be one of the keys to whether Democrats net the 15 seats needed to take back control of Congress. And this morning, Emily's List released polls suggesting that five of these candidates are in solid position to win their races.

Per these polls, Gabrielle Giffords (D) is leading Randy Graf (R), 54%-29%, in Arizona; Iraq war vet Tammy Duckworth (D) is tied, 41%-41%, with Peter Roskam (R) in Illinois; Patty Wetterling (D) is down three points (but within the margin of error) to Michele Bachmann (R) in Minnesota; Darcy Burner (D) is nearly even with Rep. Dave Reichert (R) in Washington; and the same is true for Mary Jo Kilroy (D) in her race against Rep. Deborah Pryce (R). Emily's List president Ellen Malcolm said in a conference call that these polls were taken after September 11, when national surveys began to show an uptick in President Bush's approval rating. While Bush might be experiencing a bump, she noted, "it is not helping these [Republican] candidates. They are not moving up."

Although not disputing the poll numbers, House GOP campaign committee spokesman Carl Forti questions how many of these candidates will win in November. "I'm sure Emily's List will have the same kind of success with their candidates that they had in 2004," he tells First Read, referring to the Democrats' numerous losses that year.

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
In announcing today, per the AP, that Minneapolis-St. Paul would be the site of their 2008 convention, Republicans certainly beat Democrats to the punch. The surprise of the announcement was more with the timing, not the locale. According to timetables laid out by both parties, Democrats were supposed to announce their convention first, by early next year. But with the Twin Cities arguably being the GOP's most desirable choice out of a short list that included New York (which was their site in 2004), Tampa (with the possibility of hurricanes in the summer), and Cleveland (a Democratic-friendly city), Republicans decided to stake their claim to the city now before Democrats did. Indeed, Democrats also had Minneapolis-St. Paul on their own short list, in addition to Denver and New York.

Today's announcement might also give a boost to Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who finds himself in a competitive contest for re-election this fall. While the selection of convention sites usually creates speculation about how it might impact potential presidential candidates -- example: John Kerry and Boston in 2004 -- the Twin Cities pick could help Pawlenty convince Minnesota voters that he can still deliver for the state.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
White House press secretary Tony Snow today discussed his new role as a fundraiser for GOP candidates and acknowledged he knows of no other press secretary from either party who has played that kind of political role raising money while also serving the public. These events will include closed fundraisers where the media -- and by extension, the public -- will not be informed of what he says to donors. Snow says this unusual dual role was discussed at great length with White House Counsel Harriet Miers and carries the president's approval.

Snow also says he is aware of the ethical issues and acknowledged that it's close to the line of what is appropriate for a public official.  He claims his speeches will be "boring" and "not red meat" and that he will not be looking to pick political fights. He added he was asked  to headline these events "months ago" and that he will be utilized by the party in his home state of Ohio -- but beyond that as well. He will do an event that is closed this evening. Another event Snow says he will do is for Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) of Ohio, who made headlines late last year when she suggested Marines don't cut and run when criticizing Rep. John Murtha (D).

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Forty-one days until election day...  Declassified portions of the National Intelligence Estimate label the Iraq war as a "cause célèbre" but give the Administration some means to counter Democrats' attacks.  Iraq and the war on terror remain in the spotlight, between the NIE, President Bush's working dinner with his counterparts from Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the new schedule addition of another presidential address for Friday.  Yesterday morning, the White House announced that Bush will give another speech on the war on terror before another military audience, the Reserve Officers Association. 

In addition to having favorable portions of the NIE to tout, the White House must be hoping to claim victory on Friday on a raft of security-related spending bills and legislation passed by a departing GOP-run Congress.  But while the detainee trial and treatment bill seems likely to pass, the fate of legislation reaffirming the NSA warrantless surveillance program remains in flux; NBC's Mike Viqueira and Ken Strickland advise that final passage before Congress leaves town is unlikely.  Congress may get to it in a lame-duck session -- or they may not.  Also by Friday, the Administration's campaign to bolster public support for the unpopular war in Iraq by casting it as central to the WOT will be just shy of a month old.

The economy is starting to crowd the war on terror for the spotlight.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average yesterday closed at its highest point in six years and its second highest closing level ever, and falling gas prices help level the playing field for the White House and GOP.  They continue to try to make hay out of House Ways and Means ranking member Charlie Rangel's statements that he can't imagine further extending any of Bush's tax cuts.  Rangel made these assertions while talking about fixing the alternative minimum tax, which affects more middle-class Americans every year, and balancing the budget, but that context doesn't make it into the GOP's headlines.  The tactic dovetails nicely with their effort to draw attention to motivate their base with the prospect of life under a Democrat-run House.

With gas prices off the table, Democrats are focusing on a minimum wage increase, fixing the aforementioned AMT, balancing the budget, retirement security, and the latest economic trouble spot: falling housing prices, touted in a memo from the party's House campaign committee yesterday.

Per the pool report, Bush raised $1.5 million or so at a fundraiser for three state parties in Washington last night.  Today, he headlines another fundraiser behind closed doors at another private home, this time in Memphis for Bob Corker, the Republican nominee for retiring Sen. Bill Frist's seat.  After the moderate Corker defeated two more conservative former congressmen to win his primary this summer, the CW was that he'd have the advantage against Rep. Harold Ford (D) in this GOP-leaning state.  But Corker now finds himself in a dogfight; a recent poll for the Ford campaign shows Ford leading by six points. 

NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that White House advisors say they won't be releasing a schedule for these events, but that Vice President Cheney will make remarks at a reception for GOP Sen. Rick Santorum tomorrow night in Chevy Chase, MD.  On Saturday night, he'll headline a fundraising reception for the Wyoming GOP.  Both events will be held at private residences and will be closed to the press.

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