From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Voters rebuked House Republicans in the 2006 midterm elections one last time yesterday, ousting Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla from Texas' 23rd district in favor of Democrat Ciro Rodriguez, a former member who lost his seat and lost his first attempt to return to Washington.  Democrats complete the 2006 cycle without having lost a single seat, and now claim 233 members of the House to Republicans' 202.  Bonilla's loss also is another nail in the coffin for former Rep. Tom DeLay's Texas redistricting plan. 

Five weeks later, the Democratic wave that struck on election day remains forceful enough to sweep from office a Republican incumbent who had received 49% on November 7 and needed only to break 50% to win the runoff.  Compare that to scandal-plagued Democratic Rep. William Jefferson's win in his runoff last Saturday with 57%, despite getting just 30% of the vote on November 7. 

Absent any exit polls, we can't know how much of Bonilla's loss was due to dynamics particular to his massive border district, and how much to the same national dynamic that held sway on election day, voter discontent with congressional scandals and the Iraq war.  NBC political analyst Charlie Cook points out that Bonilla had no ethical issues himself and didn't make any missteps, but even so, "a group that Bush strategists have repeatedly labeled as critical for the future of the GOP, Mexican-Americans," turned on party.  The first NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted since the midterms, which will provide some clues, will be released tonight on NBC Nightly News and on MSNBC.com.  Other new polls out today show intensifying public unhappiness over the course of the war.

Certainly not much has changed on either the scandal or the Iraq front in the five weeks since November 7.  The House Ethics Committee decided that GOP leaders didn't do enough to prevent Rep. Mark Foley's inappropriate behavior toward House pages, but recommended no punishment.  And although President Bush is changing defense secretaries, he has not changed his tune on Iraq, and is now delaying his announcement of a "new way forward" until next year.

Bush aides reject suggestions that the reason for the postponement is because Bush hasn't yet made up his mind.  Spokesman Tony Snow yesterday said "that would be the wrong inference to draw.  You probably -- as we've said all along, it's a complex business and there are a lot of things to take into account."  Rather, the delay is because Bush has been asking a lot of questions during these consultation sessions and his questions trigger the need for his staff to research and prepare responses, officials say.  NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that one official described the President as "driving the bureaucracy." 

Bush critics might argue the opposite: that this President who has cultivated an image of being "the decider" is now allowing his decision-making to be driven by a widening circle of advisors, and that he and his team are so intent on diluting the impact of the widely hyped Iraq Study Group report -- "the only bipartisan advice" Bush will get on Iraq, the group's co-chairs said -- that they're putting him at risk of looking like he can't make up his mind. 

The delay also means that the 2008 presidential candidates who are planning their own big announcements in January will need to work around two major Bush speeches.  Perhaps the White House is thinking of turning the Iraq address and the State of the Union into a pair, allowing them to focus the latter on domestic policy.

Today's presidential meeting on Iraq is with senior officials at the Pentagon, after which Bush will make a statement.  The AP reports that "Bush has decided the general direction he wants to take U.S. policy on Iraq and has asked his staff to work out the details as he wraps up a highly public review of the war and its aims."  An unnamed defense specialist tells the AP that "Bush is delaying making public his new Iraq policy plan in part to allow officials to work out the funding." 

The Chicago Tribune writes that "strong support has coalesced in the Pentagon behind a military plan to 'double down' in the country with a substantial buildup in American troops, an increase in industrial aid and a major combat offensive against Muqtada Sadr…  Military officials, including some advising the chiefs, have argued that an intensified effort may be the only way to get the counterinsurgency strategy right and provide a chance for victory." 

Per the new Washington Post/ABC poll, "Nearly eight in 10 Americans favor changing the U.S. mission in Iraq from direct combat to training Iraqi troops...  Sizeable majorities agree with the goal of pulling out nearly all U.S. combat forces by early 2008, engaging in direct talks with Iran and Syria and reducing U.S. financial support if Iraq fails to make enough progress" -- all recommendations of the Iraq Study Group.  "The dichotomy between the public's support for the plan and the Washington establishment's ambivalence illustrates the complex political environment...  A war-weary public appears hungry for ideas that would represent a major change, but political leaders remain uncertain whether the plan's proposals would improve the situation." 

The new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll "shows a disaffected public that has grown more sour about the [Iraq] conflict since September, with only about one in seven believing Bush's claim that the U.S. is winning."  The poll also shows that by "better than 2-to-1 margins, the public supports two key recommendations" of the Iraq Study Group, the calls "for direct U.S. negotiations with Iran and Syria about the future of Iraq and possibly withholding economic and military support from the Iraqi government unless it makes progress on political reforms and national reconciliation."  Almost two-thirds say that Iraq is in a civil war. 

The Wall Street Journal looks at "high-profile dissent" among Republican moderates over Bush's approach.  "The dynamic has been triggered by the pessimistic assessment... released by the Iraq Study Group last week. In ways unimaginable just a few months ago, the report from the bipartisan panel... is giving moderate Republicans political cover to condemn the handling of the war -- creating a dilemma for the president and war supporters such as Sen. John McCain," who "is the war's staunchest supporter outside the White House." 

The Washington Times says of the delayed Iraq speech, "The expectation to complete a plan before the holidays is complicated by incoming Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates, who will not be sworn in... until Monday.  Mr. Gates has said he plans to travel to Baghdad for a crash course about the situation on the ground in Iraq before making his own recommendations to the president." 

"The delay means that if Bush opts for an increase in the number of troops in Iraq - now about 140,000 - as some experts have advocated, he will not unveil the plan until after the winter holidays," says the Los Angeles Times.  "The postponement prompted a complaint from" incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who charged that since election day, "Bush has done nothing but remove [Rumsfeld] as secretary of Defense 'and conduct a listening tour.'" 

The new Gallup Poll for USA Today shows "a 54% majority [saying] Bush will be judged as a below-average or poor president, more than double the negative rating given any of his five most recent predecessors...  Overall, Republicans rate Bush third, below Reagan and the elder Bush but above Ford and the two Democrats.  They rank Clinton last.  Democrats rank Clinton first and Carter second, followed by Reagan, Ford and the elder Bush.  The current president is last." 

The Washington Post's Milbank looks at Tony Snow's increasing reliance upon the response, "I don't know."  "When Snow took over as White House press secretary earlier this year, reporters found it refreshing that he was willing to admit when he didn't know something.  This has become rather less refreshing as Snow, while claiming access to Bush's sanctum sanctorum, continues to use the phrase -- more than 400 times so far in televised briefings and interviews...  Unsurprisingly, this method has done some damage to briefer-questioner relations." 

Apart from the color of skin, Sen. Barack Obama also is distinguished by his name, MSNBC.com's Tom Curry notes.  Republican operative Ed Rogers recently caused a stir on MSNBC's Hardball by mentioning Obama's middle name, "Hussein."  In every speech, Obama brings up his membership in the United Church of Christ.  (He also explains that he borrowed the phrase "audacity of hope" from his UCC pastor in Chicago.)  Could he be doing this partly to dispel any mistaken notion that some people might have that he's a Muslim?

Yes, said Michael Fauntroy, who teaches political science at George Mason University and is the author of the new book "Republicans and the Black Vote."  Fauntroy said, "The United Church of Christ is among the more liberal churches in America.  Obama is saying that he's a member of that church to make it known that he's a Christian.  And he is also sending a message to Democrats and leftward people that his policies are guided by a leftward interpretation of faith."

On Hardball at UNC-Chapel Hill yesterday, former Sen. John Edwards called the Iraq Study Group report "a very sobering indictment of what's happening in Iraq right now, and the desperate need to change policy;" said he would quickly withdraw 40,000 to 50,000 troops from Iraq; accurately named the leaders of Canada, Mexico, Iraq, Germany, and Italy, but didn't know the name of the President of South Africa; and said that the McCain-Feingold campaign finance law is "a failure."

Sen. Hillary Clinton will appear on TODAY Monday morning to talk about the re-release of "It Takes a Village" and her possible presidential bid.  The Hill looks at Clinton's latest hire of a "faith guru:" "Observers of Clinton's expressions of faith say religion has always been important to her, that she attended prayer group meetings while first lady, and that she joined a Senate prayer group shortly after winning election in 2000."  The story also notes that Sen. John Kerry "also recently held a dinner at his D.C. home with evangelical leaders and traveled out to California for a four-hour meeting with Rick Warren," author of  "The Purpose-Driven Life." 

(It's not "just" a prayer group that Clinton joined, really.)

The presidential race is over -- at least in DeLay's eyes.  Per the New York Post, at a luncheon sponsored by the conservative magazine Human Events, DeLay predicted that Clinton will win the presidency and that Obama would be her running mate.  DeLay said the victory would be attributed to "vast left wing conspiracy - comprised of liberal groups like MoveOn.org, bloggers and the mainstream media."  More:  "DeLay hyped Clinton's presidential prospects to stir up the conservative base - and to raise ducats for his own new blog and conservative activism site, TomDeLay.com." 

The New York Times profiles the woman who would be Clinton's campaign manager if she decides to run: Patti Solis Doyle -- "a reclusive adviser who is intolerant of leaks, who demands strict loyalty from her staff and who, on those rare occasions that she speaks publicly, measures each word…  In her first in-depth interview about herself and the operation, Ms. Solis Doyle was visibly uncomfortable with the attention." 

Kerry embarks on a nine-day trip to Iraq and five other Middle Eastern countries today.  He said "he hopes to use the regional trip, his first there in nearly year, to meet with political leaders and US troops in Iraq about solutions to the Iraq conflict.  His meetings will include a session with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, a country the Iraq Study Group recommended should be included in direct talks about the future of Iraq," reports the Boston Globe. 

Kerry celebrated his birthday with... bloggers?  The Boston Herald reports that Kerry "held a bash in Boston for bloggers from as far away as Mississippi and California to wish him well as he mulls another run." 

Joined by a small group of supporters yesterday, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) announced his presidential bid in Cleveland.  He said he didn't decide to run until last week.

The Washington Times has some of the rare coverage of Kucinich's announcement, saying that he "raised the stakes for Democratic White House hopefuls yesterday, jumping into the 2008 race with a challenge to his own party -- end the war in Iraq." 

The Hill also reports that Clinton and Rudy Giuliani (R) are fighting over a controversial nuclear power plant located "18 miles from Clinton's home in Chappaqua, N.Y.," which "applied for federal re-licensing last month with a public bona fide from Giuliani, whose security firm works for the plant's owners.  Warnings from lawmakers and local officials in both parties that the plant poses risks to public health and national security are unfounded, Giuliani said," though members of New York's congressional delegation disagree. 

The New York Times reports that House Democrats "are seriously exploring" creating an independent ethics watchdog.  "Senior party officials said Tuesday that Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the incoming speaker, had consulted with Representative John A. Boehner of Ohio, the minority leader, on forming a bipartisan group to examine outside enforcement.  The goal would be to have the group report back in the spring." 

Pelosi announced yesterday that Jefferson will remain on temporary suspension from his Ways and Means Committee seat until his legal issues are resolved, Roll Call says.  As we've reported before, a federal judicial panel recently extended the deadline for briefs in Jefferson's case until mid-April, with oral arguments to come after that. 

Rep. Artur Davis, an African-American who is considering a Senate bid in his home state of Alabama, has been awarded the vacant committee seat. 

The AP notes, "While depriving Mr. Jefferson of his committee assignment, the Democrats have been mum about another member of the Ways and Means Committee, Rep. James McDermott, who on Monday was admonished by the House ethics committee for violating ethics standards by giving reporters access to an illegally taped telephone call involving Republican leaders a decade ago." 

The Senate Ethics Committee said incoming Majority Leader Harry Reid committed no wrongdoing "in accepting free ringside seats at boxing matches from the Nevada Athletic Commission." 

"Americans overwhelmingly say the growing gap between rich and poor has become a serious national concern, a sentiment that may bolster Democrats' plans to narrow the income divide when they take control of Congress," says Bloomberg of their new poll with the Los Angeles Times. 

Congressional Democrats have named former Clinton economic advisor Peter Orszag to head the Congressional Budget Office, "the nonpartisan agency that provides lawmakers with cost estimates for legislation and other budgetary analyses." 

The San Antonio Express writes up Rodriguez's upset win yesterday over Bonilla.  "Andy Hernandez, a political scientist at the University of Texas at San Antonio and a former [DNC] staffer, said Rodriguez's victory was in step with last month's Democratic upheaval.  'You have to see this as part of the national trend where Republicans lost in swing districts,' he said.  'This anti-Republican trend, which Hispanics had a big part in, played out here.'" 

As we've written before, voters might have rejected the Republican party in last month's midterm elections, but they weren't exactly giving the Democratic party a ringing endorsement, either.  Some pundits who gathered yesterday at a seminar sponsored by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, including Democratic strategist James Carville and Rep. Tom Davis (R), expressed the same sentiments as they conducted a post-mortem of the election.

Looking at the House, Karin Johanson, executive director of the Democratic House campaign committee (DCCC), cited Leader Nancy Pelosi and DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel's heavy focus on recruiting and raising money as key factors in the party's success, as well as setting certain media and fundraising benchmarks for candidates to meet before receiving full support of the committee.  Johanson added that while DNC chair Howard Dean's "50-state strategy" might be effective in the long-term, she's not sure how much of an effect it had this past cycle.

The GOP House campaign committee's deputy political director, Jonathan Poe, credited the DCCC with running several effective ads, namely those that attacked Republicans for rejecting bonuses for US troops but voting to raise their own pay.  Poe added that Democratic 527 groups were highly effective and made it a "frustrating" cycle for GOP.  Poe also conceded that about 99% of their own ads were negative, but they used them because they "work."  The Cook Report's Amy Walter said the outcome was "no surprise by any match" and noted that while the DCCC deserves credit for their strategy, the "environment" this year put them over the top.  To the GOP's credit, though, Walter added that the wins of Republican incumbents like Chris Shays, Jim Gerlach and Heather Wilson were laudable.

In the Senate, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook noted that Republicans were doomed, despite recruiting strong candidates like Mike Bouchard in Michigan and Mike McGavick in Washington.  The Democratic Senate campaign committee's executive director, JB Poersch, said his party's wins in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia will give them bumps heading into 2008 in states that have been difficult for them in the past.

Republican pollster Neil Newhouse said immigration issue hurt the GOP because many Republicans and Bush were on opposite sides of the fence.  Newhouse added that Republicans were also faced with trying to delicately balance their distance from Bush and their position on Iraq without losing credibility on the issue.  But, he noted that some losses were beyond the party's control.  "The Santorum loss was Rick's loss," Newhouse said.

Citing the conventional wisdom that these elections were more about voting against the incumbent party than for the minority party, the Cook Report's Jennifer Duffy added that Democrats won on the "we are not them," bandwagon before suggesting that Democrats should stand in front of the mirror and repeat, "It wasn't about me."

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Outgoing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld was at the White House today and has been participating in the President's consultations on Iraq -- making some of his comments from a December 7 interview with Cal Thomas on FOX rather notable. The official transcript was released today. For starters, Rumsfeld said he had not read the Iraq Study Group report:

Q: Yeah. The Iraq Study Group Report -- you've read it, I'm sure.

RUMSFELD: I haven't.

Q: You haven't?

RUMSFELD: No.

Q: You've read the executive summary?

RUMSFELD: I've -- yes, I've read reports of it, and I've gone through the executive summary.

Not a "War on Terror:"

Q: You know all the stuff. What would you have done differently?

RUMSFELD: I guess I don't think I would have called it the war on terror. I don't mean to be critical of those who have or did or -- and certainly I've used the phrase frequently. Why do I say that? I say it because the word "war" conjures up World War II more than it does the Cold War, and it creates a level of expectation of victory and an ending within the 30 or 60 minutes of a soap opera. And it isn't going to happen that way.

Furthermore, it's not a war on terror. Terror is a weapon of choice for extremists who are trying to destabilize regimes and impose their -- in the hands of a small group of clerics, their dark vision on all the people that they can control.

So "war on terror" has a problem for me, and I've worked to try to reduce the extent to which that's used, and increase the extent to which we understand it more as a long war or a struggle or a conflict, not against terrorism but against a relatively small number, but terribly dangerous and lethal, violent extremists.

On Robert Gates' confirmation hearing response that the United States is not winning the war:

RUMSFELD: I see. I didn't see his testimony, and I would want to -- before -- I don't want to comment on it at all because I didn't see it in context. But if you asked me what my view would be, it would be that the military can't lose, but the military can't win alone, it simply requires political solutions. They've got to have reconciliation in their country. They simply have to take a series of steps, that they've not yet sufficiently taken.

On life after the Pentagon:

RUMSFELD: She (Mrs. Rumsfeld) goes all the time with a group of women, and I have not been in six years to the movies.

From CNBC's Karin Caifa
As soon as news hit the wires yesterday afternoon that Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) would make another bid for the presidency in 2008, I was immediately bombarded with e-mails, text messages, and instant messages. Most of them to the tune of, "He's baaaaaaaack," or, "Are you ready for your second tour of duty?"

I covered Kucinich's 2004 campaign for NBC and MSNBC. Hey, everyone has to start somewhere. In retrospect, at 24, I was lucky to be covering any presidential campaign at all. Even one that consistently polled somewhere between zero and 2%.

I spent about seven months touring the traditional campaign states -- Iowa and New Hampshire -- and some not-so-conventional primary territories like Maine and Texas, in the Kucinich campaign minivan. No, not campaign plane. Not campaign bus. Campaign minivan. The 2004 campaign was no-frills, buoyed by financial support from an eclectic mix of peace activists, Kucinich longtime friends, and Hollywood star power (Sean Penn, Joaquin Phoenix and Danny Glover were among those who contributed their time and/or money). With help from federal matching funds, Kucinich managed to take his campaign all the way up to the nominating convention in Boston, dropping out barely before Democrats named Sen. John Kerry as their man. I, however, dropped out after the Super Tuesday primaries made it abundantly clear that the party had their nominee… and it wasn't Kucinich.

It certainly wasn't fundraising cash or poll numbers that generated headlines out of the last campaign. Looking back on the experience, I'm astonished at how much curiosity the assignment piques among my fellow journalists and political junkies even now. I suppose I can't blame them. It was quite a journey. While other reporters were digging through FEC filings, I was following the heated competition to win a date with the then-bachelor candidate. Sparked by comments Kucinich made before a New Hampshire forum, some 80 women entered their names. The online contest ultimately inspired a "Dating Game" sketch with Jay Leno on "The Tonight Show," where a good-sport Kucinich chose between three lovely ladies. The winner of the Leno contest was actress Jennifer Tilly, which I thought a good fit. (Kucinich must have thought otherwise; he remarried in 2005.)

Every day I met more quirky Kucinich fans, from all parts of the country and all sorts of backgrounds, united by their fierce loyalty to the same guy from Cleveland. One young musician penned a polka just for the campaign, singing her heart out as she accompanied herself (and dozens of others) on the accordion. Another couple drove themselves from California to Cleveland in a modified Mercedes-Benz outfitted to run on soybeans.

With those kinds of supporters, you can bet Kucinich events were a little different from the average candidate speech and rally. While other contenders chose rollicking rock-and-roll for their entrance themes, the Kucinich campaign chose John Lennon's "Imagine," as their anthem. At a Washington, DC, event, Kucinich leaped up on a chair to lead the crowd in a sing-along of "This Little Light of Mine." In San Francisco, Kucinich supporters packed a candlelit church to hear serene speech from the Congressman and Pulitzer Prize winner Alice Walker. And in Austin, TX, thousands attended a fundraising concert headlined by Willie Nelson. I even faced my fear of clowns when the real-life Patch Adams joined Kucinich on the trail. (Good golly, the things we do for our careers.)

I am sure the Kucitizens will immediately spring back into action at today's announcement, at least those who have not spent the last two years clamoring for this second presidential bid from the former Cleveland mayor. Kucinich is getting an early jump on things this time around, like other longshot candidates testing the waters over a year before those first Iowa caucuses. They face an uphill climb, including Kucinich, with one national campaign under his belt. The competition within Kucinich's own party could be packed with charismatic, superstar candidates named Obama, Edwards, and of course, Clinton.

I must admit the unwavering support of the Kucitizens in 2004 was somewhat refreshing after watching staff and supporters jump from one primary candidate to another as the field got smaller. I do, however, expect that the outcome for Kucinich will be much the same this time around. That same fervid support from a rather small core, and single-digit finishes in most primaries. Taking encouragement from the outcome of the recent midterm elections, Kucinich is seizing on his strong anti-war belief to garner support. But overall, even with the voters' criticism of the way the GOP administration has handled the Iraq conflict, we saw from last month's midterm elections that the climate favors moderate candidates on both sides of the aisle. Kucinich's ideas are still a bit too left of the mainstream.

But every four years, we do get to have these amazing debates and dialogues as to which direction the country should head and who should lead us, and all kinds of voices deserve to be heard, even those tagged as longshots. So you can't fault a guy for trying. It's like Kucinich notably said at his congressional swearing-in in 1996, "If at first you don't succeed, try, try, try, try, try again."

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Elizabeth Wilner
Senior officials tell NBC News that the President's address on Iraq will more likely happen in early January.  Advisors had said they hoped to be ready before Christmas, but that was not "locked down," and also had indicated that the week between the holidays did not make sense.

This could make two Bush speeches that 2008 presidential candidates will need to work around as a slew of them plan their own campaign announcements for January, since the State of the Union is expected to take place later in the month.

(To watch Kelly O'Donnell's video, click here.)

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Suicide bombings in Baghdad have killed at least 56 and injured over 200.  During day two of his three-day listening tour/policy review on Iraq, President Bush takes part in a video teleconference with military commanders and the outgoing US Ambassador to Iraq, then meets with the Vice President of Iraq.  Yesterday, White House spokesman Tony Snow said that while the White House hopes that Bush can deliver his "new way forward plan" before Christmas, the timing is "not locked down" and the various reviews are not yet complete, per NBC's Kelly O'Donnell.

Congress may have left for the holidays, but two House races still remain somewhat less than settled.  One is the unusual case of Florida's 13th district, where Republican Vern Buchanan was declared the winner by 369 votes.  Democratic candidate Christine Jennings (D) has not only sought a new, court-ordered election, but is asking the soon-to-be Democrat-run House Administration Committee to seat her instead of Buchanan.  The committee is expected to make a recommendation in January.

The other race should be decided in a runoff today between Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) and former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D), in Texas' massive 23rd district.  Recent polls suggest that Rodriguez is closing in on Bonilla.  The contest has gotten some national attention because the roots of its competitiveness lie in Tom DeLay's controversial Texas redistricting, because it's the last race still technically unsettled, and because it's a close one that could result in one final blow to the GOP in the 2006 midterm elections.  The current breakdown in the House, counting Buchanan's win, is 232-202.

In a crowded special election last month, ordered after the US Supreme Court forced the state to redraw Bonilla's district in its decision on the Texas redistricting case, the incumbent grabbed 49% of the vote, just short of the majority he needed to avoid the runoff.  While Bonilla is probably the favorite (that 49% puts him in a much better position than the victorious Rep. William Jefferson was in before his runoff), his redrawn district isn't as friendly to him as it was before the Supreme Court intervened.

The San Antonio Express says the runoff  "either will be an exclamation point at the end of the Democratic takeover of Congress or a question mark hinting at the potential for a Republican comeback."  Bonilla "said Monday he considered his race the first of the 2008 cycle."  The Democratic House campaign committee has spent nearly $1 million to help Rodriguez and erase Bonilla's considerable fundraising advantage.  But they are also aware that Rodriguez is the same candidate who lost his primary in 2004, which knocked him out of Congress, and again in March 2006, when he was unable to gain his old seat back.

Congressional Democrats are attempting an end run around Republicans' effort to dump an array of spending bills on them come January and put them on the spot over their commitment to earmark reform.  Because the GOP-run Congress adjourned without completing 11 of the 13 appropriations bills that fund the government for this year, NBC's Ken Strickland reports, incoming Democratic leaders say they've been left with "fiscal mayhem" and won't deal with it, either.  Instead, they plan to scrap current budget proposals and keep spending for most federal programs and agencies at last year's levels.  "Unfortunately, there are no good options available to us to complete the unfinished work of the Republican Congress," said incoming Appropriations Committee chairs Robert Byrd and David Obey in a statement.

Such a move could have a far-reaching effect, Strickland says.  Many agencies and departments previously budgeted for increases this year would likely have to go without them.  And millions of dollars for special home-state projects -- a/k/a earmarks -- attached to those bills would be eliminated this year.  "We will place a moratorium on all earmarks until a reformed process is put in place," the statement says, "and put an end to the abuses that have harmed the credibility of Congress."

Democratic leaders insist it's important to "clear the decks quickly" to focus on other funding priorities, specifically the President's 2008 budget (which they'll get in February) and another emergency funding request for the Iraq war of about $100 billion.  This will also allow them to start work on their "100 hours" agenda without being distracted by spending bills.  Incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Speaker Nancy Pelosi signed off on the plan, saying, "It is not a perfect solution, but it is the best available given the fiscal mess the 109th Congress has left behind."

"While seeking a new course in Iraq, President Bush has not changed his tone about the stakes involved in the war, the importance of victory or his definition of success," the AP observes.  "His public remarks in recent days have given no hint of the new direction that White House officials expect Bush will announce in a speech before Christmas.  The president's comments sound much as they did in the weeks before the November elections." 

The New York Times: "Aides said that through this week's meetings Mr. Bush was 'approaching the conclusion' of his deliberations.  But officials said the semipublic nature of the meetings - which were put on Mr. Bush's schedule last week - were also in part intended to show that he is urgently working on a solution to the worsening instability of Iraq at a time of heavy public pressure to show progress there."  More: "A poll released by CBS News on Monday showed Mr. Bush had his lowest approval rating ever on the war:" 21%." 

A new Gallup Poll for USA Today shows that "Americans are increasingly pessimistic about the war and want most U.S. troops withdrawn within a year," and that three out of four "support the major recommendations unveiled by the Iraq Study Group."  "...[F]ewer than 1 in 5 have 'a great deal' of trust in Bush to 'recommend the right thing' for the United States to do in Iraq" -- but "[c]onfidence in Democratic congressional leaders to chart the proper course is even lower, at 14%." 

(Not helping Democrats: In an interiew with Congressional Quarterly, Rep. Silvestre Reyes, the incoming Democratic chair of the House Intelligence Committee, "could not describe Hezbollah and incorrectly described al-Qaeda's Islamic roots in a recent interview." 

In a separate poll story, USA Today says, "Most Americans are convinced of two things: It's important that the United States succeed in Iraq.  Eight in 10 of those surveyed... agree with President Bush about that.  Important, perhaps, but not worth the price.  By nearly 2-1, they also say the costs of succeeding in Iraq outweigh the benefits.  Eight in 10 want most U.S. troops withdrawn within two years.  Nearly a third want them home within six months." 

The outside experts with whom Bush met yesterday seemed to agree with him in opposing two big recommendations by the Iraq Study Group: reducing the number of US combat troops and reaching out to Iran and Syria, reports the Washington Post. 

The Financial Times takes the latest look at the emerging bipartisan consensus in Washington to "blame the Iraqis."  The "breadth of support for such a line is striking," ranging from outgoing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to Sen. Barack Obama (D), who recently "implied that Baghdad was suffering from welfare dependency." 

Republican political consultant Mike Murphy writes in a Los Angeles Times op-ed, "The grim truth is that between the 'thumping' his party took at the ballot box in November and the intrusive help of the Baker commission, the president has lost so much power at home that he can no longer maneuver successfully in Iraq."  He writes, "only legitimate bipartisanship can give the president back the authority he needs to move diplomatically and militarily." 

Sen. Hillary Clinton has dinner with Iowa Democrats at her Washington home this evening.  Earlier in the day, she gives an interview to NPR on the role of the National Guard and Army Reserve in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The New York Daily News has former Iowa party chair Gordon Fischer offering some advice to her: visit every county and town before the primary, and stop being a "'control freak.'"  Fischer, the paper adds, "is a fan of Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack, who is already in the White House race." 

The Hartford Courant looks at how Obama's surge from out of nowhere into the public's consciousness as a possible leading contender hurts his colleague Chris Dodd's chances.  "If Dodd runs for the White House, he will count on strong support from the African American community.  He could also suffer because Obama hurts efforts to get attention as well as raise money for his possible presidential bid...  Dodd's troops say that whatever moves Obama or anyone else makes will not influence" Dodd's decision, which "he hopes to make next month." 

The unglamorous side of life as a potential presidential candidate: On Sunday, Obama addressed a crowd of 1,500 wildly cheering party activists in New Hampshire.  Yesterday, he and incoming House Government Reform chair Henry Waxman released a report finding "dangerous lead levels in jewelry and other inexpensive children's gifts sold in the four US Capitol gift shops.  The Special Investigations Division of the minority staff of the Government Reform Committee found that seven of 13 items tested contained dangerous levels of lead."

Former Sen. John Edwards does the Hardball College Tour later today on MSNBC.

The AP notes that Al Gore "is waging a fierce campaign for recognition and an Oscar statuette for his global warming documentary, while reviving talk that he's pursuing a bigger prize: the presidency…  'I am not planning to run for president again,' Gore said last week… Then, he added: 'I haven't completely ruled it out.'  Those words make Gore the 800-pound non-candidate of the Democratic field." 

Recently, Sen. John Kerry said he'd make up his mind about running for president again later in the spring, but now his colleague Sen. Ted Kennedy, who is waiting to endorse him, is basically forcing him to decide sooner by saying he won't wait around for Kerry "indefinitely."  "A Kennedy spokeswoman said Kennedy would continue to support Kerry if the junior senator jumps into the race on that time line.  But in an hourlong interview with Globe reporters and editors, Kennedy offered strong praise for two of Kerry's possible presidential rivals:" Obama and Clinton. 

Rep. Dennis Kucinich will announce today that he plans to run for president again.  After centering his campaign on his opposition to the Iraq war, Kucinich got 1% in the Iowa caucuses and 1% in the New Hampshire primary in 2004.

CBN News blogs about a comment they got from Gov. Mitt Romney's communications director in response to a 1994 letter in which Romney, who was challenging Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) at the time, "talks about equality for gays and lesbians."  Romney's aide: "Over the past four years as governor, Mitt Romney has not implemented new or special rights in this area and he has not advocated or supported any change in the military's policies.  As governor, he's been a champion of traditional marriage.  He's fought the efforts of activist judges who seek to redefine marriage, and he's testified before the U.S. Senate in support of the Federal Marriage Amendment."  CBN adds: "How quick will Romney be to go in front of the cameras on this topic.  Family conservative activist groups like Family Research Council and Focus on the Family are not happy." 

The Boston Globe's Canellos looks at some of the moves that have made Romney a serious contender for the Republican nomination. 

Sen. Sam Brownback meets with grassroots leaders and activists at the Polk County GOP Christmas party.

Part of the challenge facing the Democratic majority: raising the public's estimation of members of Congress.  Currently, members rank about on par with insurance salespeople, per the new Gallup Poll. 

In a USA Today profile, Reid shrugs off Bush's recent attempt to bond with him over their shared Western roots.  "Out here in Reid's wind-blown patch of the Mojave Desert, the Democratic senator from Nevada says he doesn't feel much kinship with the Republican president, regional or otherwise."  More: "He hasn't talked with Bush since their White House meeting in early November, but he is encouraged by contacts from Bush's top aides."  He also continues to say he did nothing improper in "his handling of a 2004 sale of Las Vegas property that netted a $700,000 gain." 

Members of the Congressional Black Caucus are calling for Rep. William Jefferson to get his Ways and Means seat back, possibly putting Pelosi in an awkward position since Rep. Alan Mollohan (D), who also has had some ethical problems, has not been forced from his influential committee seat (though Mollohan did quit the Ethics Committee). 

Incoming Senate Minority Leader tells Bloomberg in an interview that he "will work with the Democrats" on proposals "to limit the influence of lobbyists and increase the minimum wage, while demanding some say in crafting those measures" -- but will also "oppose key parts of the Democrats' 2007 agenda, including proposals allowing Medicare to negotiate lower drug prices and repealing oil-industry subsidies."  He also "said he wants to work with Reid on bipartisan legislation bolstering the long-term solvency of Social Security and on a measure overhauling immigration law." 

The Washington Post looks at the tough sell White House budget chief Rob Portman, a former House member, faces in trying to work with his old Democratic colleagues toward entitlement reform. 

Former Rep. Tom DeLay is back in the mix with a new grassroots organization and a blog.  The blog "will include DeLay's comments, input from conservative bloggers and activists, as well as inside information and interviews," per the announcement.  "Most importantly, the blog includes the activation of Tom DeLay's GAIN - Grassroots, Action, and Information Network," which is "a national network of grassroots activists united for the common goal of shaping and motivating the current conservative movement." 

There was one small problem with the launch, however: DeLay's initial posting received tons of critical and heated responses, which were saved on another blog before being deleted on DeLay's site.  A sampling: "Honestly, who on earth cares what you have to say?"; "The fact that you are trying to keep your name alive by starting a stupid blog is actually kind of pathetic and sad.  Please just go away"; "You are a criminal, and you should be serving time in jail alomg [sic] with your buddies Abramhoff [sic] and Cunningham."  And those were the nice ones.

In his own comments, DeLay gives kudos to Democrats for effectively capitalizing on grassroots organizing via the Internet, and echoes other top Republicans' line that "Democrats didn't win this election, Republicans lost it."  In an interview with The Hill newspaper, DeLay "blamed campaign finance law introduced by Sens. John McCain (R-Ariz.) and Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) for much of the damage done to Republicans across the country...  DeLay attributed Republican losses also to members' failure to articulate their accomplishments of the last 12 years or to deflect criticism about the number of GOP bills that became law." 

Pelosi plans to offer legislation to reform the House page program, Roll Call says, while the Washington Times cites the recent House ethics report in saying that Democratic campaign operatives pushed the Rep. Mark Foley scandal to the press and that the party's House campaign committee chief knew about the inappropriate e-mails as early as fall 2005. 

The Los Angeles Times front-pages a long look at how GOP Rep. Gary Miller "brought his congressional muscle to bear on personal business matters, according to the former staff members and the correspondence from Miller's congressional office."  More: "A real estate developer and one of the wealthiest members of Congress, Miller, 58, routinely asked his staff to handle personal errands, such as helping his children with schoolwork, searching for rock concert tickets and sending flowers to family members and friends...  Federal law prohibits members of Congress from using their staff for anything other than official work." 

CNBC's Patti Domm advises that the Fed is not expected to take action on interest rates at its latest meeting, but its statement this afternoon will be watched closely to see if it reveals new clues about its thinking on inflation and the economy.  The AP says, ""Many economists believe the Fed's first rate cut will occur around June of 2007, and they believe there could be two quarter-point reductions next year." 

From NBC's Huma Zaidi
Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) will make a formal announcement at noon tomorrow in Cleveland that he will run for president in 2008. According to the AP, Kucinich said he's running because he doesn't feel his party is doing enough to get the US out of Iraq.

Kucinich, who ran for president in 2004, received just 1% of the vote in both Iowa and New Hampshire. He was the last candidate to officially drop out of the race before endorsing Sen. John Kerry.

From NBC's Courtney Kube
Pentagon press secretary Eric Ruff provided a quick read-out of outgoing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's surprise visit to Iraq over the weekend. Per Ruff, Rumsfeld did not meet with any Iraqi officials or receive any briefings while on the ground. He did, however, have dinner with about one dozen US officials in Iraq -- including top generals and Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad. In all, Rumsfeld spent about 26 hours on the ground for his final trip to Iraq.  

Ruff maintains that Rumsfeld went to Iraq to speak directly to the troops and thank them for their service. He defended the Pentagon's decision not to take the news media on the trip, explaining that the secretary was "not looking for broad news coverage." Ruff said that Rumsfeld and FOX News' Sean Hannity, who accompanied the secretary, had been talking about a trip together to Iraq for several years, and that all news about the trip was supposed to be embargoed until they landed back in the US Sunday night. He could not explain how they planned to keep the several thousand troops he met with and all of the media in Iraq from reporting about the trip.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Politics abhors a vacuum, especially in the new-media universe without news cycles, and with Democrats fired up by the midterm election results and itching to put the Bush presidency behind them.  So it was that 150 political reporters and 10 times that many activists jammed into a Manchester hall to hear the Democrat who is both the most widely anticipated and most inexperienced candidate in the 2008 field, assuming he decides to run.  Gov. John Lynch (D) joked to the cheering crowd that the organizers of the event could have gotten the Rolling Stones to appear, but they preferred Sen. Barack Obama.

Unlike many of the others who are considering vying for president this cycle, Obama has a natural ability to fly at 30,000 feet, politically speaking.  While several activists in the hall yesterday remarked that his rhetoric isn't as lofty as Bill Clinton's, as an African-American with his unique background, he personifies his own message of hope and optimism even better than Clinton did.  It's at 15,000 feet -- the fleshing out of policy proposals, the endurance of incessant questions on the campaign trail -- where the ride could get rough for an inexperienced candidate. 

Obama has not one but two extremely high bars to meet.  First, he may have trouble living up to the near idyllic standard some seem inclined to hold him to.  He tries to shrug this off by suggesting humbly that he's merely a stand-in for the hope many Democrats feel about the coming election.  And second, to win his party's nomination and, if he does that, the presidency, he may eventually have trouble living up to the bar he sets for himself about representing a new kind of politics that transcends partisanship, and not caring about whether he's up or down. 

Obama's appearance likely caps off this ultra-early stage of the presidential season, which will resume in earnest with campaign announcements in early January -- unless some candidate decides to jump the line and announce over the holidays.  Spokesman Robert Gibbs tells First Read that was Obama's last presidential-related event of this year.

The attention paid to Obama obscured Democratic Rep. William Jefferson's re-election on Saturday with 57% of the vote.  Ultimately, the GOP paid a price at the ballot box for their proliferating ethical problems in 2006 while Democrats did not.  But they now face the prospect of Jefferson's presence undercutting their message as they hold a series of votes on ethics reform during their first week in the majority. 

After the feds found $90,000 in cash in his freezer and two of his associates pleaded guilty to a kickback scheme, Republicans tried to use Jefferson to muddy the waters on ethics in the midterm elections.  Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi stripped him of his Ways and Means Committee seat to send a message of zero tolerance on ethical issues.  But most New Orleans politicians backed Jefferson in his re-election campaign despite his problems, including Mayor Ray Nagin, another local politician who was written off for dead, only to stage a comeback in a runoff. 

Although deprived of his committee seat, no one can force Jefferson out of Congress, even if he eventually gets indicted.  And as NBC's Doug Adams points out, any indictment of Jefferson probably wouldn't happen until May 2007 at the earliest.  A federal judicial panel recently extended the deadline for briefs in his case until mid-April, with oral arguments to come after that.  Pelosi has said that Jefferson can have his committee seat back once he resolves his legal issues.  Until then, Democrats face the awkward prospect of complaints that New Orleans, of all places, is not being adequately represented in the House.

Continuing the White House effort to dilute the impact of the Iraq Study Group's recommendations, President Bush has three straight days of meetings with various officials to talk about Iraq.  Today's meetings are with State Department officials and "outside experts."  It remains to be seen whether Democrats will make as effective use of the GOP's internal splits over Iraq heading into the 2008 presidential race as Republicans did of Democrats' divisions over the war in 2004.  A new Newsweek Poll shows 39% of Americans agree with the Iraq Study Group's recommendations; 20% disagree; and 26% say they are not aware of the Group.  Sixty-eight percent believe that the United States is losing ground in Iraq, the highest rating ever in the poll; and 21% think the United States is making progress.  Bush's job approval rating in the poll is 32%.

The Financial Times says of Bush's Iraq meetings this week, "Mr Bush would not receive formal reports during the meetings and the White House did not expect to publish a final review." 

Iraq's president said yesterday that the US plan to train Iraqi security forces has been a failure and that the recommendation to increase the number of US advisors helping the Iraqi army is a threat to the country's sovereignty.  The New York Times says the remarks "amounted to an extraordinarily harsh denunciation of a central American strategy in Iraq and challenged a major recommendation by the Iraq Study Group in Washington." 

USA Today says outgoing UN Secretary General Kofi Annan will include "a tough critique of [Bush's] policies" in his farewell address today.  Annan "will accuse the administration of trying to secure the United States from terrorism in part by dominating other nations through force, committing what he termed human rights abuses and taking military action without broad international support...  In the 61-year history of the U.N., no secretary-general has ended his tenure by criticizing U.S. policies so sharply, said Stanley Meisler, a historian of the United Nations." 

The Boston Globe front-pages a potential looming issue for Bush: "Hundreds of thousands of Iraqis who have fled their homeland are likely to seek refugee status in the United States, humanitarian groups said, putting intense pressure on the Bush administration to reexamine a policy that authorizes only 500 Iraqis to be resettled here next year...  Ellen Sauerbrey, assistant secretary of state for refugees and migration, said that while the Bush administration does not think resettlement is needed for most refugees, its policy could rapidly change." 

The Washington Post's Howard Kurtz says the recent stream of leaks about Iraq policy and proposals has made clear "that the private doubts of top officials are closer to the media's dark portrait of the war than to the 'absolutely, we're winning' rhetoric of President Bush.  That is especially noteworthy in light of all the criticism that administration officials have heaped on correspondents in Iraq for focusing too heavily on violence and ignoring signs of progress." 

In Manchester yesterday, MSNBC.com's Tom Curry asked if Democrats are moving past the infatuation stage with Obama, and finds that some are.  "He still has a lot more to prove to people here," said Dan McKenna, a newly elected state representative, after hearing Obama address the rapturous crowd.  "The next time he comes here, people will be looking for more substance." 

The huge crowd and media frenzy "tells me he's a rock star, but it's a long way to November," said Bill Shaheen, who chaired both Al Gore's New Hampshire primary campaign in 2000 and Sen. John Kerry's in 2004.  Will Obama's momentum force Sen. Hillary Clinton to jump into the race soon?  "I don't know if it's imminent, but she's got to make a move quick," Shaheen said.  He also said he's been swapping phone messages with Clinton in recent days, but has not talked to her.

One of Shaheen's law partners, Lucy Karl, who was also on hand for Obama's speech, said, "My concern is that he's too green.  I've thought a lot about the foreign policy stuff.  If you look at who has been good ultimately on foreign policy -- very often it has been our governors, I liked Carter, I loved [Bill] Clinton."  "I'm still not convinced Obama is going to play in Topeka," she said, putting it down in part to his name and his skin color.  "I just don't know yet if he can win -- because he is so, so new."  But with a nod to Malcolm Gladwell's book, Blink, she added, "We do go with our guts with people.  He's doing something to people's guts that most politicians aren't doing."

Karl and some of her friends are looking eagerly at Gore -- not yet a contender in this race -- as someone who they think has been proven right on Iraq and other issues.  "Would I support a Gore-Obama ticket?  Absolutely," she said.

"Obama's showing was stunning for an early candidate in New Hampshire nearly a year before the nation's leadoff presidential primary.  Most candidates are still making appearances at house parties, sharing cake and coffee with local activists," says the Boston Globe. 

The Washington Times says Obama could threaten Clinton's "early lead for the Democratic presidential nomination by challenging her vote for the Iraq war, opposition to a speedy troop withdrawal and support for free trade," per party strategists. 

The Washington Post notes that Obama's "presidential planning has not quite caught up with the hype and speculation that now follows him wherever he goes.  Nor does he appear to be as far along as Clinton or a number of other Democrats." 

USA Today highlights the link between the surge in interest in Obama and the Clinton team's recent string of announcements about staffing.  "For months, Clinton was the runaway leader of the field in national polls.  As Obama surged, her normally tight-lipped aides started confirming a series of people in line to be campaign manager, communications director and the like in a Clinton presidential campaign." 

Sen. Evan Bayh was also in New Hampshire this weekend to talk about why he's (probably) running for president.

Democratic party leaders "in some of the most heavily Democratic counties" in Iowa "say that they're prepared to wait to see what the field looks like before committing and that winning back the White House trumps home-state allegiance," reports the Des Moines Register.  This could prove problematic for Gov. Tom Vilsack, who "has said he will win the caucuses.  Anything less could mortally wound his candidacy." 

The Los Angeles Times front-pages the "frenzied competition" among Republican presidential candidates over which of them will inherit "a fundraising and vote-getting machine built by the [Bushes] over the years into one of the most valuable assets in modern politics."  More: "Adding to the drama, a sibling divide appears to be emerging" as some key members of Gov. Jeb Bush's "tight-knit inner circle have signed up to help Romney, while several of President Bush's senior strategists have gone to McCain." 

The New York Daily News covers McCain's tough speech on Iran to a pro-Israel crowd in Manhattan, Rudy Giuliani's home turf.  "Although he called war with Iran a last resort, he added, 'There is only one thing worse than a military solution, and that, my friends, is a nuclear-armed Iran.'"  

Anti-tax activist Grover Norquist, who has ties to imprisoned lobbyist Jack Abramoff, is telling reporters that "'envoys' for Sen. John McCain (R) have reached out to him several times in the past year to reach a detente in advance of the Arizonan's likely presidential campaign," which McCain's top political adviser dismisses as "delusional," Roll Call reports. 

Outgoing New York Gov. George Pataki (R) says he will decide at the beginning of next year whether he'll run for president, the New York Times says. 

The Wall Street Journal looks at Democrats' narrow loss last week when they tried to pass a bill that would recoup royalties from oil and gas companies who drill on federal lands, and says the party continues to face the big question of "how to pay for their initiatives and address significant fiscal problems left behind by outgoing Republicans?"

The Los Angeles Times has a lot of details on Pelosi's coming-out party as the first woman Speaker of the House.  "The impending inauguration kicks off the contest over who will define Nancy Pelosi: Republicans who see her as a reckless liberal, or Pelosi herself, who wants to be seen as an American Everywoman, leading her party on a steady course to the center." 

The San Francisco Chronicle examines Pelosi's attempt to govern from the center -- "pragmatism that Democrats believe is necessary to keep the party unified and in the majority beyond 2008."  

The Washington Post says a group of younger Democratic House members have begin making waves within their caucus (though the story doesn't make a connection with the reformist Gang of Seven young Republican House members who stirred things up in the early 1990s). 

Roll Call rounds up efforts being planned by both parties in the Senate to enact ethics reforms at the legislative level and within their own caucuses, from the reforms incoming Majority Leader Harry Reid plans to propose, to incoming Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's consideration of doing away with the regular lobbyist-funded retreat, to the joint caucus being planned for the start of the new Congress.

Bob Novak wonders whether the Democrats' idea of reform extends beyond new restrictions on lobbyists to Washington's bipartisan appetite for pork-barrel spending.