First Read is taking a little holiday breather.  Although we'll be posting here as political news warrants over the next week, we will be back in earnest with our daily morning missive and updates on January 2.  We wish everyone happy and healthy holidays --

Huma, Mark and Elizabeth

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
So for John Edwards the day has finally come to say he's in the race. Sure, all the signs have been there as he prepared to launch a new campaign, but one quirky clue goes back to March 2004.

I had been covering Edwards' campaign, tracking him on planes and buses from Iowa's surprise second-place finish through Super Tuesday, when his hope for the nomination fell apart. Those of us in his press corps headed for North Carolina, where Edwards dropped out and threw his support to John Kerry. His speech was in the gym of the high school his late son had attended. It was the end of the line for him and also for those of who wrote about his campaign.

Before heading our separate ways, a bunch of us planned one last dinner together at a Raleigh restaurant. We had a back room to ourselves making it easier to laugh and swap stories. Then came a surprise knock on the door of that back dining room. John and Elizabeth Edwards had the same idea. They had a booth in the restaurant, heard we were there and came by to send us off.

Both seemed upbeat considering very big aspirations had been dashed. They tried to show good humor as they noted how quickly they were back in civilian life. The Secret Service detail was already gone. After brief good wishes to everyone. Elizabeth Edwards turned to her husband and said "Should we tell them?" He nodded in agreement. Elizabeth explained that something unexpected happened when they checked in to their hotel the night before dropping out of the race. She set up the punch line and then delivered the big, foreshadowing hint. Their hotel room number was 2008.

Of course, we saw them again in July when he joined the Kerry ticket. But we already knew he had a key that opened the door to 2008.

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Former Sen. John Edwards (D) told NBC's Matt Lauer on TODAY this morning that he's running for president to urge people to take action to change things and make the country better. He rejected the suggestion that his lack of foreign policy experience will be a problem, arguing that the current Administration has a wealth of foreign policy experience and it hasn't helped them figure out what to do about Iraq. And he repeated his earlier repudiation of his vote in favor of the war.

In an e-mail sent to supporters overnight, Edwards emphasized a new approach he's taking in this second attempt to win the presidency: posting video clips of himself on YouTube as he goes about his campaign in an effort to let supporters get a look at him that's unfiltered by the media. One emerging theme of Edwards' is that he spent too much time during his first campaign listening to his paid consultants tell him what to do and say, and not enough time letting people see the real him. This is evident even in Edwards' statement yesterday about the passing of President Gerald Ford: "President Ford once said, 'At times it feels as if American politics consists largely of candidates without ideas, hiring consultants without convictions, to stage campaigns without content… It doesn't have to be this way.' He was right."

It's a theme that could serve Edwards well if he has to campaign for the Democratic nomination against "real, unvarnished" Barack Obama -- and against Sen. Hillary Clinton, who seems to strike some voters as too cautious and politically calculating. From New Orleans, Edwards sets off on a series of town halls in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
We'll take a wild guess and say that former Sen. John Edwards (D) is about to announce his candidacy for president. Edwards e-mailed his supporters over the holiday weekend, titling the e-mail "The big decision" and writing that he's going to try to "bring Americans together in all fifty states to tackle the big challenges facing our country, from poverty and lack of health care, to energy and global warming." (Edwards didn't talk much about global warming when he ran in 2003-2004, but the topic seems to be a hit among Democrats considering the presidency these days after Al Gore found success with his film "An Inconvenient Truth.")

Edwards also has a live TODAY interview scheduled for tomorrow morning from New Orleans' Lower Ninth Ward. And the New York Times pretty much reports today that he will indeed pull the trigger tomorrow.

With Edwards' entry, the political press corps will have to resist the temptation to cast the Democratic primary as a two-person race between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, Newsweek covers notwithstanding. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows that Edwards, rather than Clinton or Obama, is the only Democratic contender who beats Sen. John McCain (R) in a nationwide head-to-head match-up. Edwards defeats the presumed GOP frontrunner by 43% to 41%. That said, he placed third in the Democratic primary trial heat, with Clinton far ahead at 37%, Obama at 18%, and Edwards at 14%.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson's office has issued a statement on his status.  He remains in critical condition in intensive care.  He "is recovering as expected from brain surgery and his brain pressures continue to be in the normal range," Anthony Caputy, M.D., Chairman, Department of Neurosurgery, at the George Washington University Hospital.  "Senator Johnson is sedated to allow his systems to rest and recover from the hemorrhage and we anticipate no further tests or procedures in the near future," says Vivek Deshmukh, MD, neurosurgeon.  "This is expected to continue through the holidays."

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
After former Gov. Mark Warner (D) abandoned his fledgling bid and Sen. George Allen (R) lost his seat on election day, it looked like Virginia wasn't going to be represented in the 2008 presidential field, after all. But former Gov. Jim Gilmore (R) plans to change that on January 2 when, per a press release from his law office, he expects to form an exploratory committee.

Gilmore is trying to fill the shoes that Allen had intended to fill as the mainstream conservative candidate in the GOP field. "It is my intention to fill that void," he says in the release. "For the Republican party to be successful we need electable candidates who can articulate a positive, mainstream conservative message that can reach all Americans." But it's unclear (to doubtful) whether Gilmore can raise the necessary money and campaign apparatus in what now seems like a relatively short period of time, since rivals John McCain and Mitt Romney have been in the race for months.

Gilmore served as governor of Virginia from 1998 until 2002 after campaigning famously on cutting the state's car tax. The press release also touts that Gilmore, who was governor when the Pentagon was attacked on September 11, 2001, chaired "the Congressional 'Gilmore Commission' from 1999 to 2003 to assess America's terrorism response capabilities." He's also a former chairman of the Republican National Committee.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Elizabeth Wilner
President Bush will hold a news conference this morning just after 10:00 am ET. Topics will include an update on Bush's "consultative process on the new way forward in Iraq" and his "inclination" to increase the size of the US military. He's also certain to be asked about his comment to the Washington Post that the Iraq war is now in a stalemate (after having asserted just recently that the United States is winning the war), and also about Gen. John Abizaid's resignation.

Bush also will discuss the economy and his "commitment" to work in a bipartisan way with the new Congress.

This will be the President's 30th solo news conference and the 18th of his second term. The last was November 8, when he announced the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

From NBC's Mark Murray
The biggest political story of 2008, of course, will be the wide-open presidential race. However, a lesser -- yet equally important -- story will be whether Democrats can hold onto their majorities in Congress. The man who will be in charge of keeping control of the House is Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) of Maryland, whom incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi today tapped to succeed Rahm Emanuel as chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Van Hollen was elected to Congress in 2002, when he beat incumbent Rep. Connie Morella (R). In the 2008 battle for the House -- Democrats will be holding onto a 233-202 advantage -- Van Hollen will square off against Rep. Tom Cole (R) of Oklahoma, who was elected chair of the GOP House campaign committee last month.

From CNBC's Karin Caifa
Former Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson thinks the most dominant issue in the 2008 presidential campaign, next to the war on terror, will be health care.  He adds that those issues along with geography could give him an edge in the race.

"It looks good. It looks very promising and encouraging," Thompson said of a potential bid in an interview with cnbc.com this morning. Thompson announced last month that he would form an exploratory committee and has made about 10 trips to the crucial caucus state of Iowa so far.

"I live right next to them in Wisconsin," he added optimistically. "And as I always tell people, Iowa used to be part of the old Wisconsin territory. And Wisconsin and Iowa haven't had a Midwestern candidate for a long time for president of the United States, so a lot of stars are lining up in the correct fashion for me to be a candidate."

Seizing on his experience in the Bush cabinet, Thompson is clearly focusing a possible campaign on the issue he knows best.  "I think I'm in a good position to articulate a vision of health care that is affordable and accessible for all Americans," Thompson said.

And now, while living life outside the Beltway, he said he wouldn't be afraid to take on one of the most powerful lobbies in Washington: tobacco.

Thompson said he'd aim shift health care funding to more preventative care. And one of the best ways, he said, to save money on preventative care is to slow tobacco-related illnesses in America -- by getting people to stop smoking and by regulating the industry.

"We regulate baby aspirin and that's one of the healthy things Americans take," Thompson told CNBC pharmaceuticals reporter Mike Huckman. "And yet we do not regulate nicotine."

"I make no bones about it," Thompson continued. "I would regulate it through the FDA and I would place a tax on it. And that tax, I would not allow it to go to the government, but that tax I would set up to be able help people to be able to quit smoking. Tax smokers to help smokers to stop smoking."

Throughout his career, Thompson has raised eyebrows within both parties for his stance on tobacco. International trips taken during his tenure as governor of Wisconsin and funded by tobacco giant Philip Morris were scrutinized by Democrats in the run-up to his confirmation as HHS Secretary. Once in the post, Thompson rankled the GOP with statements that he was considering new taxes on tobacco, statements he made without alerting the White House.
 
Thompson is confident his potential presidential candidacy would give his tobacco taxation proposal momentum. "If you are president of the United States, if you are a candidate for president, you articulate a vision," he said. "And that vision that I am talking about would resonate, and would be able to be, overwhelmingly, be the majority position in America. If you want to control health care, you've got to make tough decisions."

As far as the 2008 race goes, the list of Republican possibilities includes a bevy of politicians with more name-recognition than Thompson. The former Wisconsin governor said he will continue along with the exploratory process before making a final decision. And if he doesn't make it to the White House, he'd consider another run at the governor's mansion in Madison. "There's no question about that," he said of a return to the state capitol. "I even looked at that possibility this year."

But for now Thompson continues to test the waters, which means more trips to neighboring Iowa before the end of this year, he said. And if all goes well, next year too.

From NBC Des Moines affiliate WHO-TV's Dave Price
Outgoing Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) does The Daily Show tonight. "Host Jon Stewart's been poking fun at the Gov's last name. He uses the AFLAC insurance duck's quacks whenever he talks about Vilsack. All that national exposure ain't nothing to quack about (sorry, had to do it). More than a million people tune into the show each night. Expect Vilsack to ruffle a few feathers during his visit, I'm told, both literally and metaphorically. Don't miss the beginning of the show."

From NBC News sources
Former Speaker Newt Gingrich told NBC's Tim Russert yesterday that he may jump into the presidential race this fall if there's still room in the GOP field.  Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) told NBC's Meredith Vieira she's still seriously considering a bid and will decide after the first of the year.  Another Democrat who also appears to be leaning toward running and says he'll announce next month, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) hit New Hampshire this weekend. 

While his event in New Ipswich didn't quite measure up to the 1,500-strong crowd who gathered to hear Sen. Barack Obama in Manchester a week before, Richardson nevertheless got a strong showing, per one unaffiliated Democratic activist who attended. About 200 people came to the catered party, complete with heated tent, bartenders, and live music. The crowd included not only local Democratic activists but a busload from Manchester and some from as far away as Rye.

"Richardson spoke briefly, the usual talk about how New Hampshire is the best place to have the first primary, etc., and the usual introductory comments," the activist tells First Read. "He spoke about how he had a budget surplus in New Mexico, raised immunization rates of children, and the like. He mentioned that he met with some North Koreans on Friday night 'to let them talk' and that we should be talking to everyone, including North Korea, Syria, and Iran. He mentioned that he told President Bush that they should talk to North Korea. Bush said that North Korea is not a moral country," the activist recounted Richardson saying. "Richardson replied that if we were only talking to moral countries, the only country we would be talking to is the Vatican."

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana, who on paper looked like a formidable presidential contender in 2008 (former red-state governor with sizeable campaign bank account and extensive political network), has announced that he will not, in fact, seek his party's nomination. "After talking with family and friends over the past several days, I have decided that this is not the year for me to run for President and I will not be a candidate for the presidency in 2008. It wasn't an easy decision but it was the right one for my family, my friends and my state. I have always prided myself on putting my public responsibilities ahead of my own ambitions," he said in a written statement.

Why, if so strong on paper, did Bayh conclude this wasn't in the cards? Probably because three contenders are sucking up so much oxygen: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards, who plans to announce his candidacy in late December, per the AP. (Of these three, Edwards was the only one to defeat GOP Sen. John McCain in a hypothetical match-up in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.)

"The odds were always going to be very long for a relatively unknown candidate like myself, a little bit like David and Goliath," Bayh goes on to say in his statement. "And whether there were too many Goliaths or whether I'm just not the right David, the fact remains that at the end of the day, I concluded that due to circumstances beyond our control the odds were longer than I felt I could responsibly pursue."

Bayh's considerable campaign apparatus is now up for grabs.

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
A top aide to Sen. Barack Obama (D) told us that Obama's big appearance in New Hampshire last Sunday would be his final big "testing-the-waters" move of the year. But just because Obama is at home these days doesn't mean he isn't still sending signals about what seems more and more like a presidential campaign. He recently told the editorial boards of both the Chicago Tribune and the Chicago Sun-Times that he believes he'd be a "viable" candidate and can see his way clear to winning the nomination. The Tribune reports that he'll make his intentions known after a two-week family vacation, while the Sun-Times says he's already giving thought to security concerns and how a security detail would conflict with his preference for traveling without much of an entourage. 

Democrats nabbed the Virginia governorship in 2005 and one of the state's two Republican-held Senate seats in 2006, but their chances of snagging the other in 2008 will hinge to a large degree on whether Sen. John Warner (R) seeks re-election or not. For several reasons, including his age (he'll be 80 in February) and the fact that he's having to give up the top GOP slot on the Senate Armed Services Committee, Warner was thought to be considering retirement in 2008. But now he has informed his party's leadership in writing that he is "strongly considering" seeking another term -- precisely because Democrats have been racking up wins in his home state.

In a letter to Senate Republican leaders about committee assignments, Warner says the 2006 election results weighed heavily on him: "Given its forceful impact on Virginia, I am now strongly considering running for reelection to the Senate in 2008."

Should Warner seek re-election, we could see a repeat of the Warner-vs-Warner face-off we saw between the Senate Republican and then-tech entrepreneur Mark Warner (D) in 1996. Since then, Mark Warner has gotten a successful term as governor under his belt, as well as a fledgling run for president in 2008, which he ended a few months ago. Such a rematch would be a battle of the titans.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Sen. Tim Johnson's office just released this statement: "Admiral John Eisold, Attending Physician of the United States Capitol said, 'Senator Tim Johnson has continued to have an uncomplicated post-operative course. Specifically, he has been appropriately responsive to both word and touch. No further surgical intervention has been required.'"

From NBC's Courtney Kube and Mark Murray
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has taped a good-bye message to the members of the U.S. military that began airing on the Pentagon channel this afternoon. In it, Rumsfeld thanks the men and women of the U.S. Armed Forces, who he says "define the American spirit." He brings up the elections in Iraq and the seating of the first democratically elected President in Afghanistan. "You made them possible," he says.

The message runs about five minutes, with Rumsfeld looking straight into the camera with an American flag and the Secretary of Defense seal over his shoulders. "You will remain in my thoughts and prayers," Rumsfeld says.

Tomorrow, President Bush heads to the Pentagon to participate in an Armed Forces full honor review that honors Rumsfeld.

From NBC's Jennifer Yuille
Reprising her role as defender-in-chief, Laura Bush stood by her husband's Iraq policy and blamed the media for his low approval ratings this morning. "I understand why those polls are like that because of the coverage that we see every single day in Iraq. And it is not encouraging coverage, for sure, there's no doubt about it," she told NBC's Norah O'Donnell in an interview. She went on to say that "the drumbeat in the country, from the media from the only way people know what is happening unless they happen to have a loved one deployed there. It's discouraging and I know the facts are not as discouraging."

According to the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, 69% of those surveyed say that they are less confident there will be a successful conclusion in Iraq.

This is not the first time Mrs. Bush has targeted the media for focusing too much on the negative. A month after Hurricane Katrina, she told a crowd at the Heritage Foundation that she had seen "many more unselfish acts of giving than bad things" on the Gulf Coast but "the media hasn't shown us that much." And during the 2004 election, she entered the debate over stem cell research. "Although you might not know about it from listening to the news lately, the president looks forward to medical breakthroughs that may arise from stem cell research," she said.

White House officials have acknowledged in the past that the First Lady is an effective mouthpiece. She played a pivotal role in GOP fundraising efforts during the 2006 midterm elections raising millions of dollars for Republican candidates. Her favorability ratings always remain high, usually hovering anywhere between 50% and 70%.

From NBC's Huma Zaidi
Speaking to reporters on the Hill just a few moments ago, Sen. Harry Reid said he feels "confident" that Sen. Tim Johnson will make a "good recovery." Reid, who has been visiting Johnson at the George Washington University Hospital, added, though, that he would not comment further on Johnson's medical condition because no matter what he says it "would not be enough for [the press]."

Asked what Johnson's condition might mean for the balance of power in the Senate, Reid said things are proceeding as normal on the Hill. "There isn't a thing that's changed," Reid said.

From NBC Des Moines affiliate WHO-TV's Dave Price
Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) just turned 56. It turns out December's a crowded month for the crowded prez field. In fact, December's the most crowded month of all. Five candidates or potential candidates have December birthdays: John Kerry (D), Vilsack, Tom Tancredo (R), Wes Clark (D), and Evan Bayh (D).

So what is it with this Sagittarius crowd? Perhaps, it's in the stars. Astrocenter.com says this:

Sagittarius is well-suited to any career in which communication skills, knowledge, and inspiration are important. This is an employee who will be versatile, adventurous, and knowledgeable. They tend to be easygoing and good-natured and able to adapt easily to change.

The Archer enjoys a workplace that is lively and stimulating. They are not temperamentally suited to a job that is boring or with no opportunity for growth and learning. Sagittarius prefers a career that allows them the opportunity to expand their horizons, travel, and explore. Sagittarius natives do not like to be constricted in their daily routine or have to adhere to a lot of rules. Motivated by challenges and the chance to prove their abilities, this sign will become a life-long learner and will always be looking for new avenues to pursue. They may change careers several times in their life.

No rules. No problem. Be president.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Denizens of the political world are getting whiplash as, after five weeks of adjusting to the concept of Democratic majorities in both houses of Congress, the sudden, serious illness of a Senate Democrat raises the prospect that the expected 51-49 chamber in the 110th Congress could instead be 50-50, with Vice President Cheney in position to break a tie vote for Republicans.  Along with everyone else in Washington, our hearts go out to Sen. Tim Johnson and his family; at the same time, our minds can't help but turn to the ramifications should Johnson become unable to serve. 

Under South Dakota law, in the event of a vacancy, Republican Gov. Mike Rounds would appoint a replacement for Johnson to serve until the next general election, which in this case happens to coincide with the end of Johnson's second term in 2008.  Rounds would not be legally or otherwise obliged to appoint a Democrat.  Neither state law nor the Constitution provides a course of action in the event of a serious illness, and there is precedent for incapacitated members of the Senate to remain in office.  Johnson, who suffered from symptoms of a stroke yesterday, underwent surgery at a Washington hospital last night.  At this writing, his condition is critical. 

Tops among what's at stake in the event of a vacancy: Bush's status as an utter lame duck in the face of a Democrat-run -- rather than split -- Congress, and Democrats' ability to pass much more than their "six for '06" legislative agenda, most of which would probably still be approved by a narrowly GOP-run Senate. 

Republican instead of Democratic committee chairs in the chamber would not only affect the landscape for the 2008 presidential race (no Foreign Relations Committee chair Joe Biden, for example), but Sen. John McCain at the helm of the Armed Services Committee could affect policy on the Iraq war, since McCain is the most prominent advocate of sending more US troops to Iraq.  Democratic Senate hearings on the conduct of the war could be reduced to informal sessions held for show, as they were earlier this year.  Just yesterday, Sen. Pat Leahy, who's slated to chair the Judiciary Committee, said in a speech that he plans to subpoena Bush officials who resist requests for documents, try to change detainee policy, and curb the NSA warrantless wiretapping program.

Such a shift also could hand more influence to "independent Democratic" Sen. Joe Lieberman, who supports the war and is sometimes at odds with the party line on other issues, even as it means that Cheney's vote and not Lieberman's would become the most important vote in the Senate.

A 50-50 Senate would also revive the question of whether the two caucuses will agree to share power per the agreement struck by leaders Trent Lott (R) and Tom Daschle (D) after the 2000 election, the last time the Senate was 50-50.  Under that agreement, which was unprecedented at the time, both parties had an equal number of seats on the key committees that draft bills and handle presidential nominees.  Before the midterm elections, when a 50-50 Senate in the 110th Congress was a real possibility, it wasn't clear whether Democratic Leader Harry Reid and expected GOP Leader Mitch McConnell would reach a similar agreement.  Democrats would have some procedural leverage on their side: The Senate can't get down to business (committee meetings, etc.) until it's "organized," which requires 60 votes.

Much more on this story below.

It so happens that the final edition of First Read for 2006 coincides with the conclusion of the midterm elections and our year-end NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.  One last House Republican has lost his seat in a runoff.  President Bush has hit new depths in his approval ratings and in public support for his approach toward Iraq.  The poll also hints at potential problems down the road for the conventionally accepted frontrunners for the party's presidential nomination.

Our pollsters advise that such poor numbers are true to form for a survey taken in the aftermath of a bloody, one-sided election, as this one proved to be for Republicans.  "People kind of 'punish' a political party," says pollster Bill McInturff (R).  The question is, "when do they feel like they've kind of been punished enough and it's time to move on...  This is an electorate that's still very grouchy and not yet sated."  Peter Hart (D) called it a "classic" pattern when the "losing party and the incumbent continue to decline and the winning party surges."

As we wrote yesterday, GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla's loss on Tuesday, after failing to grow his vote from the 49% he received on election day to the 50% plus one he needed to win a two-way runoff, no doubt was due in part to local dynamics.  But the poll suggests that public discontent over the war in Iraq remains a nationalizing force that contributed to Bonilla's loss and is causing Bush's worst-ever job approval rating in our survey (34%) and worst-ever job approval ratings on handling foreign policy (30%) and on handling the war (23%, down 11 points since late October).  And while the Democratic party's standing has gradually risen over the past several months, the GOP's remains mired near their record low in the poll.

Bush has adjusted his personnel but not his policy on the war, despite the message sent by voters on November 7.  He said yesterday that the situation is too serious for him to rush to make decisions.  While he's engaging in a series of consultations, he is clearly resisting the bipartisan recommendations that have been the most hyped of any of the options he is being given.  Although the poll shows that much of the public isn't too familiar with the Iraq Study Group's plan, it also shows a plurality of 41% saying that Bush "has gotten the message from the elections but is not making the necessary adjustments."  Another 18% say he has not gotten the message from the elections; 24% say he has gotten the message and is making the adjustments. 

Discontent with the war is now so strong that when asked if the United States has an obligation to US troops who were killed or wounded in Iraq to remain there until the mission is completed, 53% say no.  "Which means that Americans are not going to respond to waving the bloody shirt," says Hart.  Bush will have a very difficult time changing public opinion "because there's a hurricane force wind in his face and against his policy."

Laura Bush told MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell this morning in reaction to the poll, "I understand why those polls are like that because of the coverage that we see every single day in Iraq and it is not encouraging coverage, for sure."  She added later, "I'd like to see the media get a little bit more balanced view of it."

NBC Newschannel's Steve Handelsman hears that Johnson is talking this morning.  NBC's Donna Inserra reports that per Johnson's office, he was in the Senate recording studio yesterday talking to South Dakota media when his speech pattern changed, but he recovered and then walked back to his office.  He then said he didn't feel very well, a Capitol physician did a quick check, and he was put in a wheelchair and taken to George Washington University Hospital.  Johnson's wife happened to be coming to the Capitol for something unrelated yesterday and accompanied him in the ambulance.  Reid spent much of yesterday at the hospital and was expected to go back last night. 

NBC's Pete Williams notes that Rounds isn't required to fill a vacancy with a Democrat just because Johnson is one.  Has it happened that the governor has appointed someone from a different party to fill a vacancy?  Secretary of State Chris Nelson tells Williams, "It's been a long time since a vacancy has been filled this way...  We're not sure."  Here's what the state law says, per Williams: "Temporary appointment by Governor to fill vacancy in United States Senate.  Pursuant to the Seventeenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States of America, the Governor may fill by temporary appointment, until a special election is held pursuant to this chapter, vacancies in the office of senator in the Senate of the United States.  The statute contains no partisan limitation."

The Sioux Falls Argus Leader says, "Rounds did not comment on the matter, but he does have a history to suggest he might make such a move.  In 2002, after Democratic state Sen. Dick Hagen of Pine Ridge died, Rounds appointed a Republican to replace him." 

The Senate Historian's office cites several examples of a Senator being incapacitated for years and remaining in office, NBC's Doug Adams notes.  Most recently, Sen. Karl Mundt (also from South Dakota) suffered a stroke in 1969 and was incapacitated but refused to step down.  He remained in office until January 1973, when his term expired.  Mundt was pressured repeatedly to step down during his illness, but he demanded that the governor promise to appoint his wife.  The governor refused, and Mundt remained in office.  Another example was Democratic Sen. Carter Glass of Virginia (and of the Glass-Steagle Act).  Glass had a heart condition that prevented him from working for most of his last term after his re-election in 1942.  Yet he refused to resign and finally passed away from congestive heart failure in May 1946.

The New York Times: According to information from the Senate Historian cited on CQ.com, at least nine Senators have taken extended absences from the Senate for health reasons since 1942.  "Robert F. Wagner, Democrat of New York, was unable to attend any sessions of the 80th or 81st Congress from 1947 to 1949 because of a heart ailment.  Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr., Democrat of Delaware, missed about seven months in 1988 after surgery for a brain aneurysm.  And David Pryor, Democrat of Arkansas, suffered a heart attack in April 1991 and returned to the Senate in September that year."  

The Chicago Tribune: "Many members of Congress have stayed in office in spite of fragile health, including the late Sen. Strom Thurmond, a South Carolina Republican who held office beyond his 100th birthday.  Rep. Lane Evans (D-Ill.) has suffered from Parkinson's disease for years and went for several months this year without casting a vote."  

"The only time that partisan control of the Senate changed in mid-session, historians say, was in 2001," the Washington Post notes.  "Republicans began the year controlling the 50-50 chamber with Cheney's tie-breaking vote."  When control did change, it was because of party-switching Sen. Jim Jeffords.  "Senate Republican sources said yesterday that their party is likely to press for similar concessions when negotiating the operating rules for the next Congress.  But even if Johnson were incapacitated, Democratic aides say, they would resist." 

Bloomberg says, "Johnson is one of 26 Democratic senators whose death or incapacity would jeopardize Democratic control of the chamber because their successor would be appointed by a Republican governor.  That number will fall to 18 in January when the governorships of Arkansas, Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts and New York switch to Democratic from Republican control." 

USA Today: "One of the proposals developed by top U.S. commanders in Iraq would significantly redeploy troops from a combat role to training and advising Iraqi forces, according to four administration officials.  The proposal... calls for changing the mission during the next several months." 

The Washington Post says the Joint Chiefs "do not favor adding significant numbers of troops to Iraq... but see strengthening the Iraqi army as pivotal to achieving some degree of stability.  They also are pressing for a much greater U.S. effort on economic reconstruction and political reconciliation."  Although Bush "has made no final decisions on how to proceed in Iraq... the new disclosures suggest that military planning is well underway for a major change." 

Incoming Senate Armed Services chair Carl Levin says he's OK with Bush's decision to delay his announcement on a new Iraq strategy until next year, so as long as Bush actually changes course, NBC's Ken Strickland reports.  At a news conference yesterday, Levin said, "I'd rather the right conclusion be reached in January than the wrong conclusion be reached in December...  The sooner the better, in terms of changing course, but changing course is what the goal has got to be."  Earlier in the day, during a closed-press speech at the Brookings Institute, Levin himself didn't break any new ground on the war, according to his prepared remarks.  He even joked, "I take no joy in repeating myself.  So, let me pledge to you today -- as the President stands up and faces reality in Iraq, I will stand down."

One component of Democrats' "six for '06" agenda is implementing the recommendations of the September 11 commission.  One recommendation was to change the Congress does oversight of the intelligence community by having congressional appropriations and intelligence panel members work together.  Incoming House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, per her spokesperson, will proposal such an effort at a press conference this morning.  The Wall Street Journal reports, "Additional investigative staff will be hired for oversight, and the new panel would prepare the classified section to the annual Defense Department appropriations bill that covers much of the annual intelligence budget."

The new NBC/Journal poll shows that despite media's urge to cast the two open presidential primaries as a pair of mano-a-mano contests (so to speak), both races are more complex than that.

In the Democratic primary, where all the heat and light lately has been between Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, Clinton remains the far-and-away favorite with 37%, with Obama performing half as well at 18%.  Close behind Obama, at 14%, is former Sen. John Edwards.  Asked which Democrat has the best chance of winning the general election, Clinton still ranks first with 35%, followed by Edwards at 18% and Obama at 13%.  (Sen. John Kerry ranked fourth on both questions.)  "It would seem that people haven't exactly bolted from Senator Clinton," comments Hart.

In the Republican primary, while the media is focusing on the battle between McCain and Gov. Mitt Romney, the leader of the primary field is actually former Mayor Rudy Giuliani.  Giuliani takes 34%, five points ahead of McCain.  Lagging far behind is former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 10%, followed by Romney at 8%.  Asked which Republican has the best chance of winning the general election, Giuliani actually rises in the estimation of those surveyed, with 40% saying he has the best chance of winning, followed by McCain at 32%.  Romney and Gingrich are back at 5%.

And in a series of general election match-ups, McCain defeats Clinton by four points and defeats Obama by five -- but he loses to Edwards, 41%-43%. 

As Hart points out, these data suggest that contrary to the CW that Clinton "is considered under siege" and McCain isn't, "the reality is a little different."

Also, as noted above, the poll hints at potential problems down the road for the conventionally accepted frontrunners for the Republican nod.  For starters, 79% of those polled want US troops removed from combat operations in Iraq one way or another; only 16% say the troops should still take part in all aspects of the war.  That points to a potential problem for McCain, who told reporters in Baghdad just this morning that "five to 10 more brigades of U.S. combat soldiers must be sent to Iraq," per the AP. 

That isn't McCain's only potential stumbling block.  His age may also pose a problem.  Sixty-six percent of those polled say they would either "have some reservations" or be "very uncomfortable" with a presidential candidate who is over age 70 (McCain is currently 70).  On the other hand, 85% say they would be "enthusiastic" or "comfortable" with a candidate with a military background.

McCain isn't the only top GOP contender who comes to the table with a potential drawback, per the poll: 53% say they would either "have some reservations" or be "very uncomfortable" about a Mormon candidate, suggesting a possible problem for Gov. Mitt Romney.  That said, 74% say they'd be enthusiastic or comfortable with a candidate who served as a governor. 

Two of the biggest presumed liabilities for top Democratic contenders, in fact, turn out not to be liabilities: 83% say they would feel enthusiastic or comfortable with an African-American, and 80% say as much about a woman.

Some prominent conservative columnists are weighing in today, with George Will calling for Obama to run now, citing William Butler Yeats ("All life is a preparation for something that probably will never happen.  Unless you make it happen"), and with Robert Novak looking at how McCain is transforming from guerrilla candidate to Establishment favorite.  "The GOP, abhorring competition and detesting surprises, likes to establish its presidential nominee well in advance."  Novak also mentions, "Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore and former Oklahoma governor Frank Keating are testing prospects for filling the vacuum, but the required fundraising will be daunting."   

The New York Times says that Giuliani's move to hire Republican National Committee political director Mike DuHaime as the head of his exploratory committee sent "an unmistakable message about how serious he is in exploring a 2008 run…  The announcement was a bit of a blow to efforts by aides to Senator John McCain of Arizona to suggest that he was emerging as the anointed candidate of the White House." 

Seeking to draw a contrast between himself and McCain on immigration, Romney yesterday approved a controversial law that would allow certain state troopers to arrest alleged illegal immigrants.  "But a spokesman for Governor-elect Deval Patrick immediately said his boss will seek to rescind the agreement after he takes office Jan. 4, about the time 30 troopers are scheduled to begin five weeks of training." 

It's not just Kerry who's heading to the Middle East -- Sen. Chris Dodd (D) is going, as well, per the Hartford Courant.  "Dodd said he hopes to talk to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to see if she wants him to convey any messages to Syria." 

Kerry is still defending his "botched joke," writes the Boston Herald.  Kerry "denied the tour was an attempt to recover" from that unfortunate moment. 

Pegged to Obama's sudden surge onto the national scene, the Washington Post Style section considers the whole "it boy" phenomenon in presidential politics.  "Obama, like many objects of political desire before him (including Howard Dean and Wesley Clark) is in great part beloved for what people imagine about him, rather than what they know." 

DraftObama.org is releasing its first TV ad.  The ad, titled "Believe Again," "highlights Obama's potential to lead this country in a new direction and demonstrates the movement's growing strength," says the group.  The ad will air in New Hampshire and Washington, though it's unclear when.  The Manchester Union Leader has it online.

The Chicago Tribune writes that Obama is already proving he can raise money over the Internet from grassroots supporters.  "A political action committee that Obama has formed has taken in more than $1 million this year in the kind of low-dollar donations that reflect excitement among ordinary voters.  More than $165,000 flowed in during a six-week period this fall that coincided with the Democratic senator's highly publicized book tour." 

In a poll of likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, sponsored by Environmental Defense and conducted by Harstad Strategic Research (D), Edwards leads the pack with 36%.  Clinton came in second with 16% and Obama was third with 13%.  Soon-to-be-former Gov. Tom Vilsack got only 9% from Democrats in his home state.  The poll, however, was conducted before Vilsack formally announced his candidacy, and Paul Harstad is advising Obama. 

Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson of South Dakota has apparently suffered a stroke, two sources tell NBC. Unclear how serious it is. Johnson's office confirms that he was not feeling well this morning and was taken to George Washington University Hospital in DC, where he is being evaluated.

The top concern, of course, is for Johnson and his family, with all of Washington wishing them well. From a procedural standpoint, with control of the currently 51-49 Senate hanging in the balance in the event of a vacancy, reporters are doing due diligence and checking into South Dakota law.

Per South Dakota Secretary of State Chris Nelson, the governor of South Dakota may appoint a replacement if a Senate seat is vacant. The appointment would last until the next general election -- in this case, 2008. Johnson's term happens to expire in 2008, so we would be talking about the remainder of his term. The governor of South Dakota is a Republican, Mike Rounds.

However, this is *if* there's a vacancy. Johnson's seat is not vacant at this time, of course. Nelson says there's nothing in state law that deals with whether one of their members of the Senate is incapacitated. He said the answer would likely come from federal law or the US Constitution.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
NBC News has learned that South Dakota Sen. Tim Johnson (D) has suffered an apparent stroke.