From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Congress remains out for another week while Bush engages in some high-stakes negotiations abroad, first at the NATO summit in Latvia and then in Jordan at his meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.  The White House calls the meeting part of Bush's effort to consult with a wide array of sources in deciding the best way forward in Iraq.  It comes as the bipartisan Iraq Study Group and the Bush Administration near completion of their respective reports. 

The White House is objecting this morning to descriptions of the Iraq conflict as a civil war.  National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe said, "The violence is primarily centered around Baghdad and Baghdad security and the increased training of Iraqi Security Forces is at the top of the agenda when [Bush and Maliki] meet later this week."  Why does the terminology matter?  Because, among other reasons, the greater the perception among Americans that Iraqis are fighting amongst themselves, the greater the doubts may be about continued US involvement and the greater the sentiment, perhaps, in favor of troop withdrawal.  An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken in mid-October found 40% saying
Iraqis are fighting each other in a civil war, while 31% said Iraqis and foreign terrorists are fighting US troops, and 26% said it's some of both.

After they return to Washington next week, Congress may adjourn faster than expected.  The outgoing GOP majority is now expected to pass a continuing resolution to fund the government into early next year, setting up a timetable by which Democrats will be working on spending bills at the same time the White House is working on its budget.  The House may
leave town after just a week, while the Senate sticks around longer to vote on Defense Secretary nominee Robert Gates.

The incoming Democratic House majority plans to hold tutorials on Iraq and the economy next week.  NBC political analyst Charlie Cook says that whether or not Democrats move to establish an independent ethics commission could become a defining issue of the early days of their return to power.  Incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi's choice of whether to promote
impeached former judge and Rep. Alcee Hastings to Intelligence Committee chair, or pick a chair with less ethical baggage, looms as her next big personnel decision.

The Republican governors will gather in Miami later this week to discuss the midterm election results.  Outgoing Republican Governors Association chair and 2008 presidential candidate Mitt Romney will preside.  Retiring Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman will give his first big speech since the election.

Tom Vilsack, the retiring Democratic governor of Iowa, will formally announce his campaign for president in his adopted hometown on Mt. Pleasant on Thursday, followed by a tour that will take him to Concord, NH; his actual hometown of Pittsburgh; Des Moines, where his campaign HQ is located; Las Vegas; and Columbia, SC.  The stop in Pittsburgh suggests
that Vilsack plans to highlight his life story as an orphan with an adoptive mother who was an alcoholic.  The zig-zagging across the country reflects the new reality of a Democratic presidential nominating calendar that includes a second-in-the-nation caucus in Nevada. 

Vilsack's candidacy also raises questions about Iowa's dominance of the Democratic calendar.  Although he has yet to top any polls of Iowa caucus-goers, one or a few candidates in the potentially very crowded field may use his candidacy as an excuse to skip the state.  Still, recent contenders for president who have skipped Iowa -- Democrats Joe Lieberman and Wes Clark in 2004, and John McCain (R) in 2000 -- ultimately failed
to win their party's nomination.  Also, the possibility that one or more big states like California, Florida, and/or Michigan might hold much earlier contests than usual could make Iowa even more important as a springboard because of the size of those states and the cost of advertising there.

Democratic National Committee officials will meet in Washington on  Saturday, where they'll discuss the way the calendar is shaping up and possible incentives to keep states from holding their contests too early.

"President Bush's agenda at a NATO summit this week will include pressing alliance members to increase defense spending," per the AP.  "Aides say many U.S. allies are ill-equipped for modern military operations." 

The Bush-Maliki meeting later this week "is fraught with danger for Maliki.  Both Shiite and Sunni leaders have criticized the prime minister; one prominent Sunni religious leader warned that the violence in Iraq could swell throughout the Middle East if the global community continues to back Maliki.  Adding to the tension, Shiite politicians led by anti-U.S. cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, who form a key constituency for Maliki, are threatening to boycott the government if Maliki goes ahead with Thursday's meeting." 

The New York Times says a draft report by the Iraq Study Group, per officials who have seen it, âĨŖurges an aggressive regional diplomatic initiative that includes direct talks with Iran and Syria but sets no timetables for a military withdrawalâĨ¦  While the diplomatic strategy appears likely to be acceptedâĨ¦ members of the commission and outsiders involved in its work said they expected a potentially divisive debate about timetables for beginning an American withdrawal.âĨŗ 

The Wall Street Journal rounds up the various proposals floating out there for what course to pursue. 

The AP pointed out yesterday that the US involvement in Iraq has now exceeded the amount of time the United States was involved in World War II. 

"As President Bush struggles to recover" from the "thrashing" his party took on election day, "his advisers are studying the Clinton and Reagan models for lessons to revive his presidency," says the Washington Post.  "...[V]eterans of past administrations see patterns that offer hope even to badly weakened presidents such as Bush.  Adversaries who assume
that Bush has been permanently crippled by the Democratic takeover of Congress, they say, misunderstand the opportunities still available to him."  For one thing, Bush might "be eager to veto Democratic spending bills." 

As we've noted before, though, one area on which Bush's prospects have improved is on comprehensive immigration reform.  The Boston Globe reports that Sen. Ted Kennedy (D) and "other lawmakers are planning a broader meeting this week of about 12 leading senators from both parties" to discuss it. "They are hoping to have Congress vote on a final immigration bill by mid-2007...  Though no specific proposals have been floated, the bill passed this year by the Senate is a likely starting point." 

An in-depth look at Vice President Dick Cheney's career "suggests that the newly empowered Democrats in Congress should not expect the White House to cooperate when they demand classified information or attempt to exert oversight in areas such as domestic surveillance or the treatment of terrorism suspects," writes the Boston Globe. 

He may be a lame duck, the New York Daily News says, but Bush âĨŖand his truest believers are about to launch their final campaign - an eye-popping, half-billion-dollar drive for the Bush presidential library.  Eager to begin refurbishing his tattered legacy, the President hopes to raise $500 million to build his library and a think tank at Southern Methodist University.âĨŗ  More: âĨŖThe legacy-polishing centerpiece is an institute, which several Bush insiders called the Institute for Democracy...  Bush's institute will hire conservative scholars and âĨ∼give them money to write papers and books favorable to the President's
policies,âĨœ one Bush insider said.âĨŗ 

On Wednesday, the US Supreme Court will consider whether "the Clean Air Act requires the Bush administration to do something about global warming." 

"Given that GOP conservatives have prevented their colleagues on the House and Senate Appropriations panels from moving forward with plans to pass the nine remaining spending bills as an omnibus package, Republicans leaders are now expected to punt the issue to next yearâĨœs Democratic-led Congress rather than take the time to piece together major
spending legislation," Roll Call reports.  "A CR that lasts until the beginning of February, or even the beginning of March, could put Democratic appropriators on a collision course with the Bush administrationâĨœs fiscal 2008 budget, which... is likely to include a request for an
emergency war supplemental spending bill that exceeds $100 million." 

Rep. Tom Davis (R) plans to "make a run for" passage of his bill that would give the District of Columbia a voting representative in the House and balance out that safe Democratic seat by giving another seat to reliably Republican Utah.  Legal scholars debate whether or not it's
constitutional, but "most observers believe President Bush would sign it, even though he said earlier this month, 'It's the first I've heard of it.'" 

The Wall Street Journal says of some Democrats' push to create an independent ethics board, "Opponents say such an office would encroach on Congress's responsibility to police itself and could create an unnecessary and expensive bureaucracy." 

In his Sunday column, Bob Novak writes that newly elected House Democratic Caucus chair Rahm Emanuel âĨŖhas sent colleagues a one-page memo emphasizing 'real lobbying and ethics reform' as the key to his party's future electoral success.  EmanuelâĨ¦ in the memo cited eight extra seats won by Democrats in Republican districts because of scandals." 

"Absent" from House Democrats' list of priorities for their first 100 hours in the majority, the Washington Post notes, "are the knottiest problems that bedeviled the outgoing Congress, including immigration, domestic surveillance and the war in Iraq...  The go-slow strategy carries some risks, the analysts say, because restless voters may see the new Congress as having no more boldness or problem-solving skills than the 'do-nothing Congress' denounced... this fall.  But Democratic leaders probably are correct in sensing that Americans will give them several months to tackle the stickiest issues, such as Iraq and immigration." 

On FOX yesterday, incoming House Energy and Commerce chair John Dingell promised "an array of oversight investigations."  Among them: "The new Medicare drug benefit; "[s]pending on government contractors in Iraq, including Halliburton;" the "energy task force overseen by Cheney;" and a "review of food and drug safety, particularly in the area of nutritional supplements."  Incoming House Ways and Means chair Charlie Rangell "said his committee would not take on contentious issues, such as extending expiring tax cuts or overhauling Social Security, at the beginning of the year." 

The Chicago Tribune profiles Dingell and the other Democratic âĨŖold bullsâĨŗ who will be controlling the committees next year.  âĨŖBut Dingell could make more waves because he is the oldest, most senior âĨ∼old bull'...  If he stays until 2009, he will pass the late Mississippi
Democrat Jamie Whitten as the longest-serving House member.âĨŗ 

Iowa Republicans have set August 11, 2007 as the date for their
signature straw poll at Iowa State in Ames. 

The Washington Post's Broder reviews the Romney record as governor of a
state that may be more of an albatross than a boon for him in 2008. 

"Aides to Arizona Sen. John McCain and [Romney] have begun interviewing
potential Iowa staff," per the Des Moines Register, which also reported
yesterday that Sen. Barack Obama (D) is, too.  

McCain could face some familiar-seeming tough opposition in South
Carolina.  The State reports that Romney has hired a consultant to his
presidential campaign who is "generally recognized as the architect behind
[President] BushâĨœs hard-hitting campaign in S.C. in 2000." 
http://www.thestate.com/mld/thestate/news/special_packages/election2006/16097773.htm

GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter tells the Washington Times that he's the party's
"best bet to reconstitute the blue-collar coalition that helped the
party win the White House in the 1980s.  Mr. Hunter, who is seeking the
presidential nomination in 2008, says he can rebuild that coalition by
campaigning on defense, traditional values and fair trade." 

GOP Sen. Sam Brownback, meanwhile, said on ABC that "'there is room, on
the Republican side, for somebody that's a full-scale conservative,
that's an economic and fiscal and social conservative...  So we'll be
making some announcements, soon, about that'...  In addition to taking an
AIDS test" to highlight poverty in Africa and global health issues, "Mr.
Brownback also plans to spend a night in jail to highlight what he
calls a need for prison reform."  (Obama also has taken an AIDS test.) 

The Hartford Courant says Sen. Chris Dodd (D) "is proceeding at his own
carefully calibrated pace," which is not the same pace at which many of
his potential rivals are moving. 

Denver, having made some progress toward resolving its hotel issues,
feels good about its chances to win the 2008 Democratic presidential
convention -- especially after Colorado served up some key victories for
the party on election day. 

The busiest week in several is ahead for the markets, CNBC's Patti Domm
notes.  Leaving the lull of Thanksgiving week, investors will focus on
a big batch of important economic data that will show how the consumer
and the economy are faring.  Retailers' sales, housing data, a second
look at third-quarter GDP data, and monthly auto sales top the list. 
The Wall Street Journal says "U.S. auto sales are slowing and an
increasing number of forecasts say sales could fall next year to their lowest
level in nearly a decade." 

Reviewing the Democratic agenda for the middle class, the Hartford
Courant says disagreement between Democrats and conservatives "over the
state of the middle class is one that, along with U.S. policies toward
Iraq, is destined to dominate congressional debate when members return
next month and continue well into next year." 

The San Francisco Chronicle examines the dilemma that Democrats face
with the alternative minimum tax, which could cost up to a trillion
dollars to fix permanently.   Pelosi âĨŖhas promised within the first 100
hours of her leadership to impose a pay-as-you-go spending rule, which
requires that any new tax cuts or spending increases be offset by
spending cuts or tax increases elsewhere.  But if Democrats impose the pay-go
rule, they cannot fix the alternative minimum tax without gutting
existing spending programs -- much less creating new ones -- or sharply
raising other taxes.âĨŗ 

Looks like incoming New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D) isn't giving up his
main platform.  Spitzer is slamming Bush Administration proposals "to
roll back corporate accountability reforms imposed in the wake of
financial scandals such as Enron...  Last week, Hank Paulson, US Treasury
secretary, gave a closely watched speech calling for a fundamental
re-examination of the way the US regulates its capital markets to ensure they
remain globally competitive." 

USA Today reviews lessons learned from the midterms by campaign
consultants and political scientists, including: that the White House's
strategy of cultivating the base at the expense of the middle failed, as did
their efforts to appeal to minorities; that a seemingly solid
Democratic Northeast now helps the party balance out a Republican South; and
that positive economic stats didn't make voters feel better about the
economy. 

The manual recount starts today in North Carolina's 8th district, where
Rep. Robin Hayes (R) leads Democratic challenger Larry Kissell by 329
votes after a machine recount was finished before Thanksgiving.  Kissell
has requested the manual recount, in which officials will hand count
ballots in 3% of precincts.  If the sampled precinct recount varies from
the machine recount numbers, then a manual recount of all precincts
will be ordered, NBC's Doug Adams reports.

Also today, final results are expected in Ohio's 15th district, where
GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce is trying to fend off Democratic challenger Mary
Jo Kilroy.  The results should be certified tomorrow.  Also tomorrow,
voting machines will get tested in Florida's 13th district, where
Republican Vern Buchanan was certified as the winner over Democrat Christine
Jennings by 363 votes, but Jennings has filed a lawsuit seeking a new
election.  Jennings alleges that voting machine errors in Sarasota
County resulted in more than 18,000 "undervotes," per Adams --- meaning
voters made selections in other races, but did not cast a vote in the
congressional race.

And we're awaiting runoffs in Louisiana on December 9 and in Texas on
December 12, though only the Texas runoff could result in another
Republican seat possibly changing party hands.  The Wall Street Journal says
GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla's fate could turn on just how angry Hispanics
are about the GOP House members' hard line on immigration reform.  "For
years, Mr. Bonilla has been one of the Texas Republican Party's
celebrity Latinos."  

First Read is taking a little post-election breather.

We will be posting your comments and updating the site as news warrants, but won't be publishing at 9:00 am ET again until Monday, November 27.

We wish all our regular readers, and those who might be stopping by for the first time, a happy and safe Thanksgiving.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi has decided to pick up and move her suite of offices across National Statuary Hall to the space now occupied by outgoing GOP Speaker Dennis Hastert.

Democratic speakers and leaders have been in the suite where Pelosi is currently situated for years. Pelosi herself has often marveled at how she finds herself in the same office used by one of her personal heroes, Tip O'Neill. But construction on the Capitol Visitors Center has shrunk that space considerably, and though Pelosi was known to harbor desires to stay where she is, her staff was insistent. Plus, the Hastert space on the west side of the Capitol has a balcony that affords a dramatic view down the National Mall.

So it turns out that she really will need to measure the drapes -- as President Bush suggested Democrats were doing in the weeks before the election.

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Another potential presidential candidate is weighing in on Iraq. Retired Gen. Wes Clark (D) lays out his proposal in a USA Today op-ed: "The right approach is a coordinated diplomatic, legal, economic and security campaign drawing upon broader dialogue in the region and intensified political work inside Iraq," which would be achieved by establishing "an effective, sustained shuttle diplomacy within the region;" forming "a high-level interagency diplomatic team, representing the White House and secretaries of State and Defense and led by an experienced, respected diplomat;" and beginning "talks within Iraq, and with all its neighbors, based on a clear set of principles outlined by the team. The goal would be to seek the commitments necessary to achieve our aims inside Iraq and also advance U.S. interests in the region."

Democrats, meanwhile, are alleging that GOP Sen. John McCain's critique of the Bush Administration's approach to Iraq this past weekend represents a flip-flop. A longtime supporter of the war, McCain said on ABC that the Administration's current approach isn't working, calling it a "failed policy." He continues to press for more US troops in the region.

From NBC's Mark Hudspeth
Sen. Barack Obama (D) will address the Chicago Council on Global Affairs today. Per an advance look at his text, Obama will lay out a plan for Iraq that includes: 1) a phased redeployment of US troops from Iraq on a timetable that would begin in four to six months; 2) dedication of the remaining troops to protecting critical infrastructure and American enclaves, and to serving as a rapid reaction force; 3) a link between economic aid to tangible progress in reducing sectarian violence; and 4) a regional conference with US, Iraqi, Syrian, Turkish, Jordanian, and British leaders.

Obama also will make note of three lessons he thinks the United States should take from its experience in Iraq: 1) that the US government should be more modest in its belief that it can impose democracy on a country through military force; 2) that it is not enough to simply plan for war -- you must also plan for success; and 3) that the defeat of international terror will require the help of many nations.

From staff and wire reports
More developments on the 2008 front.  On the Democratic side, Sen. Joe Biden told NBC's Matt Lauer on TODAY this morning that he plans to "jump in the water, I guess officially, sometime after the first of the year."  Biden hasn't exactly been coy about his intention to run.  Indeed, his frank talk about a presidential bid has reportedly drawn the attention of the FEC, which is keeping an ear out in case Biden starts sounding so much like a candidate that he needs to take some formal bureaucratic steps to back that up.

And Sen. John Kerry (D) said on FOX yesterday that his botched joke about President Bush's Iraq policy in late October won't get in the way should he decide to run.  Kerry also said he'd be deciding "somewhere around the turn of the year."

Gov. Mitt Romney (R) of Massachusetts, meanwhile, is trying to use his final weeks in office in Massachusetts to build a national platform by calling on state legislators to vote on a same-sex marriage ban, or else he'll file a lawsuit asking the state's highest court to order that such a question be placed on the 2008 ballot.  Legislators left for the year without voting on a ban, but have one day left to do so: their final day in session is January 2.  Romney's term expires two days later.

From NBC's Doug Adams
By NBC's count, the Democrats currently hold a 232-198 edge in the House, with five races still undecided. All are Republican-held seats. Here's the latest on all the undecided races (two of which we should hear about by the end of today):

New Mexico's 1st district. Rep. Heather Wilson (R) holds about an 875-vote edge over challenger Patricia Madrid (D). Madrid has been steadily picking up votes since beginning the canvass down by over 1,100 votes. Republicans last night again claimed victory, saying Wilson's lead appeared safe. They appear to be correct. Election workers are finishing up counting provisional ballots today, and final results should be announced tonight, according to Bernalillo County officials.

North Carolina's 8th district. Going into today, GOP Rep. Robin Hayes led Democratic challenger Larry Kissell by 450 votes. Final election results will be announced this afternoon. Election officials from the 10 counties stretching from Charlotte to Fayetteville are meeting today to double-check results and count provisional ballots. There are about 1,500 provisionals to be counted across the 10 counties. Yesterday, lawyers for Hayes asked officials to throw out most of the provisionals, saying they were illegally cast. Under North Carolina law, after the vote is certified today, challengers have one business day (i.e. Monday) to request a machine recount, which would be completed within 48 hours. Kissell, a schoolteacher whose grassroots campaign ran much closer than expected, said he does intend to seek a recount.

Ohio's 2nd district. This one could get interesting, and we may not know the answer for another two weeks. Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) leads Democratic challenger Victoria Wulsin by 2,865 votes. But more than 9,700 votes are still uncounted -- 1,500 absentee ballots and more than 8,200 provisionals. Counting will begin on Monday in the three counties just east of Cincinnati that make up this district. Based on past elections, 25% to 35% of provisions can be expected to be disqualified. Final counting must be completed by November 28. If the margin shrinks to less than .05% (about 1,200 votes), it will trigger an automatic recount under Ohio law. Vote-counting could have started tomorrow, but county officials decided to let workers have the weekend off to watch the Ohio State-Michigan football game.

Ohio's 15th district. Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) leads Democratic challenger Mary Jo Kilroy by 3,536 votes. But nearly 20,000 absentee and provisional ballots are still uncounted in this district that includes Columbus and its western suburbs. The high number of provisional ballots cast stems from confusion over a new voter ID requirement that led to a lawsuit last week. Final results will be released November 27, according to Franklin County officials. Kilroy is optimistic that she can make up the lost ground. Her campaign has been airing TV and radio ads urging voters who cast provisionals to contact election boards to make sure they've provided proper documentation so their ballots will count. Kilroy's campaign says the majority of the provisional ballots stem from voter ID confusion at the polls, and they argue that transient voters tend to favor Democrats.

Florida's 13th district. A hand recount of votes began yesterday in this Sarasota area district formerly represented by Katherine Harris (R), who lost her US Senate bid. In this open-seat race, Republican Vern Buchanan leads Democrat Christine Jennings by just under 400 votes. Buchanan has claimed victory but Jennings refuses to concede. Both candidates were in Washington this week participating in new member orientation. Final recount vote totals are to be submitted to the state by today at 5:00 pm ET, and a final tally released on Monday.

But the real issue is not the recount results -- it's allegations of electronic voting machine problems in Sarasota County, the largest county (and the most Democratic) in the district. The machines reported that more than 18,000 people -- one in eight voters -- undervoted. That is, they made choices in other races, but not in the congressional race. The Sarasota undervote rate is significantly higher than other counties. Possible reasons range from a computer glitch, to voter disgust with the intensely negative campaign. Some electronic voting experts also argue that the county's ballot design made it easy to overlook the congressional race, which was on a different screen than the governor and US Senate races. Florida Secretary of State Sue Cobb has ordered an audit of the Sarasota voting machines, and both sides are in court arguing about the details.

In addition to the above five seats -- there are two runoffs scheduled for early December: 1) in Texas' 23rd district, currently held by Rep. Henry Bonilla (R). The exact date hasn't been sit but it will be no sooner than Dec. 12th. And 2) in Louisiana's 2nd district, where Rep. William Jefferson (D) will face a fellow Democrat in a runoff on December 9 (so, that seat will stay in Democratic hands).

Special to First Read from Hotline
James Carville has been generating a wave of publicity in criticizing DNC Chair Howard Dean for not sufficiently funding competitive House races. He's claimed the Democrats could have won another dozen seats if the DNC allocated more money in the campaign's final weeks. The DNC has pushed back on Carville's charges. Who's right?

Fourteen Democratic candidates lost by two points or less, but many of the campaigns were funded to the hilt by the Democratic House campaign committee (DCCC). Lois Murphy certainly can't blame her loss in PA 06 on inadequate funding; the DCCC spent over $3 million on her behalf. Patricia Madrid (NM 01) also had plenty of money – her razor-thin loss came because of an embarrassing gaffe at a debate. Mary Jo Kilroy (OH 15), Darcy Burner (WA 08), Phil Kellam (VA 02), Christine Jennings, and Tammy Duckworth (IL 06) were all among the top-funded candidates by the DCCC. (In Jennings' case, the money was funneled through the Florida Democratic party.)

And in some conservative districts, the DCCC strategically declined to spend money because they felt national advertising from Democrats would hurt their candidates. Gary Trauner, who narrowly lost to Rep. Barbara Cubin (R-WY AL), was the "victim" of such thinking.

That leaves six other races where more money could potentially have made a difference. Larry Kissell, who lost by less than 1 percent to GOP Rep. Robin Hayes (R-NC 08), certainly would have benefited from some cash; the DCCC didn't give his campaign a dime. But it wasn't a lack of DCCC funds, it was a lack of strategic foresight in this case.

Linda Stender did better-than-expected against GOP Rep. Mike Ferguson (R-NJ 07), but the DCCC would have had to enter the extremely-costly New York media market. Without the benefit of Monday morning quarterbacking, would that have been a worthwhile investment?

The losing Democratic candidates that legitimately could have a beef are: Tessa Hafen (NV 03), Dan Maffei (NY 25), Victoria Wulsin (OH 02) and Eric Massa (NY 29). These candidates ran in the type of third-tier races where the DCCC was only able to fund late. The New York environment was uniquely favorable this year, and another week of attack ads against Rep. Jim Walsh (R) perhaps could have brought him down.

Tessa Hafen was a late-emerging candidate who benefited from a mini-scandal surrounding Rep. Jon Porter (R-NV 03). An earlier investment here could have helped take Porter down. And, because of her historically Republican district, GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt managed to avoid the September attacks that her Republican counterparts received at the hands of the DCCC.

There's realistically only four -- certainly no more than six seats -- that perhaps could have been won with extra cash. Extra money could have made a small difference, but certainly not to the degree that Carville has been suggesting. Dean may have made strategic blunders in the past, but his fiscal responsibility here seems like the wiser course.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
There was a vaguely familiar figure loitering with reporters outside the House Republican leadership elections this morning. It was a dapper young man with an easy smile who stood chatting with a small group of friends, and at length the press mob became aware of his presence. Voices were lowered and furtive gestures were made in his direction.

The mystery man was Kirk Fordham, the former chief of staff for former Rep. Mark Foley (R), and a central figure in the scandal that contributed to the fact that down the hall and behind closed doors Republicans were electing a minority leader and not a speaker. It turns out he was on the Hill tying up ends left loose after his hasty resignation as the scandal exploded. He was fresh off a two-and-a-half week vacation and seemed at ease.

As reporters approached Fordham and struck up a conversation, who should walk by at that very moment but Ed Cassidy, the top aide to the chairman of the ethics committee -- the very panel that grilled Fordham for hours last month over what he knew of his former boss's contact with pages.

"Are you guys almost done?" Fordham asked Cassidy, clearing referring to the committee investigation.

Cassidy turned (and perhaps confused) said, "It will be soon." For a brief moment reporters thought they were getting a scoop. But then a look of recognition flashed over Cassidy's face, and he realized that it was Fordham, and that he wasn't asking about the GOP elections but the ethics investigation of the Foley matter.

"Oh no!" Cassidy said. "With THAT we are," he added, gesturing toward the meeting. "Not THAT," he said, referring to the Foley report.

From NBC's Carrie Dann
A crowd of conservatives in Washington were doing a strange thing last night. Less than ten days after a bruising defeat at the polls that cost the GOP its dominance on both sides of the Capitol rotunda, one of the nation's more prominent conservative groups got together and, well, had a few good laughs.

The Federalist Society, an organization of legal professionals, students, and scholars who advocate for a strict interpretation of the Constitution, is celebrating its 25th birthday at their annual conference in Washington, DC this week. So, instead of simply drowning their sorrows via the pappardelle pasta with beurre blanc served at last night's black-tie banquet, the attendees found humor in some unexpected places.

David McIntosh, one of the fellowship's founders, first set the mood by flippantly welcoming the 1,500 or so attendees to their first gathering "in the [Harry] Reid, [Nancy] Pelosi, and Alcee Hastings era." Sen. Mitch McConnell, the freshly-elected leader of the GOP minority in the Senate, noted -- to approving guffaws -- that "forty one [votes] is not an insignificant minority in a body that requires sixty." The stand-out stand-up comedian of the night, however, was none other than the keynote speaker, bookish and bespeckled Justice Samuel Alito. Who would have guessed?

The main topics of Alito's address -- in addition to his warm congratulations to fellow Justice Antonin Scalia, who was being honored for 20 years of service on the Supreme Court -- were judicial restraint and limited government. He urged that serious consideration of the constitutionality of laws be prioritized not only by the judiciary but by all public servants. But when he described for the audience his own experience as a hapless public servant propelled into the national spotlight after his nomination to the Supreme Court last fall, his self-deprecating humor brought a chorus of giggles.

Recalling the intense media attention showered upon him in November 2005, he admitted how utterly perplexed he was by the media's interest in a judge from Newark who previously had gone days at a time without interacting with anyone except his own clerks. Alito was even concerned at the time, he joked, that the pack of photographers and producers would be so pointlessly enamored by him that the whole bunch would tumble from one of the balconies of the Hart Senate Office Building "like a hoard of lemmings."

(As someone who has spent some time in similar hoards of journalistic lemmings, I can report that neither I nor any of the media crews present at the banquet were offended by this amusing but less-than-glamorous sketch of us. We were, however, indignant that we didn't get fed. It's tough to watch 1,500 people eat pappardelle pasta for two hours!)

While most public speakers try to sprinkle in bits of humor, there seemed to be something different about Alito's anecdotes and the other presenters' good-natured jibes at the Democratic Party. They carried a sense of a newly-realized humility and a rediscovered need to fight back as the underdog. And with the next two years shaping up to be a tug-of-war for a judiciary lodged between two bitterly split branches of government, the Federalists will need all the good humor they can get.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
In a stand-pat election, Republican House members chose John Boehner as minority leader and Roy Blunt as whip, keeping their leadership team intact (except for Dennis Hastert's departure from it).

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
On a day when Nancy Pelosi took the first of two official steps toward becoming the first-ever woman Speaker of the House, she also took a self-inflicted political hit when her endorsed candidate for majority leader went down in defeat after a bitter contest that has temporarily cast a shadow over Democrats' plans for ethics reform, split the caucus, and left some hard feelings.  Pelosi friends and allies say her decision to weigh in so heavily for old friend John Murtha shows her emphasis on loyalty, but that raises the question of whether loyalty could occasionally make her tone-deaf (a question that also comes up once in awhile about decision-making at other end of Pennsylvania Avenue).

House Republicans take their turn filling leadership slots today.  Some races have been contested, but none have matched the acrimony of the Hoyer-Murtha bout.  The outcome likely to be the most symbolically and strategically significant will be the election of Rep. John Boehner as minority leader. 

Boehner is about to find that it's a lot easier to be a young upstart in a longtime minority party than to be in charge of a minority party that only just fell out of favor.  Many Republicans are still debating the reasons behind their losses.  More than a few are still trying to adjust to the idea of being out of power.  By our count, at least 127 members of the House GOP conference (depending on the outcome of some still-uncalled races) were elected in 1994 or later and therefore have never served in the minority before.  When Boehner first got to Congress in 1990, House Republicans had served in the minority for over three decades. 

Boehner got his start as a member of the Gang of Seven, a group of freshmen elected in 1990 who gained national attention by using the House Bank and Post Office scandals to agitate for congressional reform.  Their efforts helped lay the groundwork for Minority Leader Newt Gingrich and his Republican Revolution of 1994.  Since then, Boehner has worked his way up, down, and back up the leadership ladder.  Earlier this year, his colleagues elected him majority leader over number-three Republican Roy Blunt, in part because Boehner was seen as the fresh face capable of helping the party right its ship before the midterms.  That didn't turn out so well, but most in the conference see Boehner as having done a decent job under difficult circumstances. 

Now that the party is back in the minority partly because voters saw them as arrogant and entrenched, it seems appropriate that Republican should choose him to help them climb out of the hole.  Boehner is being challenged for the post by Rep. Mike Pence, a leading fiscal conservative who's advocating lower spending, but Pence is considered a longshot.  He has the support of top conservative activists and pundits, but like all the other leadership contests we've seen this week, this one will be member-to-member, and outside endorsements probably won't mean that much with a secret ballot.  It helps Boehner that one area of much called-for congressional reform on which he's always been pure is his opposition to earmarks.

Incidentally, Boehner is one of only two of the Gang of Seven left standing.  Two are long gone, but three just lost their seats in this recent election -- Jim Nussle because he ran for governor and lost in a bad year for House Republicans to seek higher office, and Rick Santorum and Charles Taylor because voters declined to return them to Congress.  John Doolittle, who seems to have strayed far from his reformer roots, was re-elected despite recent ethical issues.

Also today, House Republicans will decide between Reps. Roy Blunt and John Shadegg for minority whip.  Blunt is the incumbent and Shadegg, like Pence, is campaigning on his fiscal-conservative credentials.  Blunt is viewed as the frontrunner.

Vice President Cheney addresses the Federalist Society in his first public event since before the elections, as best we can tell.  And Defense Secretary nominee Robert Gates meets today with incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, outgoing Majority Leader Bill Frist, and incoming Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.  NBC's Ken Strickland reports that Gates will get his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday, December 5.

First Read is taking a post-election breather.  We'll see you back here on Monday, November 27, and we wish you all a terrific Thanksgiving holiday.

 

President Bush is in Vietnam, where he's returning to talk of his freedom agenda, which was set aside in the months leading up to the midterm elections.  He continues to be dogged by questions about the situation in Iraq and similarities to the Vietnam war, and said in Hanoi that lessons from Vietnam can be applied in Iraq, including, "We'll succeed unless we quit."  The arguably awkward implication of this statement comes after Bush's staff posted the wrong Vietnamese flag on the White House website, and after Bush failed to get Congress to pass the Vietnam trade pact he had wanted to tout upon his arrival, all giving the impression that this trip is a little snake-bit.

The New York Times: "In private, some White House officials concede it is spectacularly poor timing.  Just as Lyndon B. Johnson did in 1968, Mr. Bush has ousted his longtime defense secretary and nominated a realist with 'fresh eyes' to replace him.  Just like President Johnson in 1968, he is conducting a broad rethinking of strategy, and is hearing options he does not like."  More: "His aides argue that the analogies between these wars are mostly false.  The comparisons will nonetheless be the unavoidable subtext of Mr. Bush's every move as he travels." 

Democrats are insisting that they won't cut funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and now Bush officials may call them on that.  USA Today reports that the Administration "is preparing its largest spending request yet for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, a proposal that could make the conflict the most expensive since World War II.  The Pentagon is considering $127 billion to $160 billion in requests from the armed services for the 2007 fiscal year...  That's on top of $70 billion already approved for 2007...  The new request being considered for the war on terror would be about one-fourth what the government spends annually on Social Security - and 10 times what it spends on its space program.  The White House called the figures premature." 

The latest AP-Ipsos poll finds that just 31% of Americans approve of Bush's handling of Iraq -- the lowest mark ever in this poll.  Bush's own job approval rating stands at 36%. 

Presidential contender and Sen. Chris Dodd (D) has introduced legislation to amend the newly minted bill governing military tribunals of detainees, The Hill reports.  "Dodd's bill, which currently has no co-sponsors, seeks to give habeas corpus protections to military detainees; bar information that was gained through coercion from being used in trials and empower military judges to exclude hearsay evidence they deem to be unreliable."  Incoming Senate Judiciary chair Pat Leahy "also said that he is in the process of drafting 'major changes' to the legislation." 

 

"If the Hoyer camp's head count was correct going into yesterday's secret balloting, Pelosi and her allies may not have swayed a single vote for Murtha," reports the Washington Post. 

The Post's Milbank: "For Pelosi, who led Democrats back to a majority in the House after 12 years, yesterday should have been a coronation for the first woman to be speaker.  Instead, her party had plunged into fratricide, and cable news was running nonstop clips of Murtha talking with FBI agents posing as sheiks in the Abscam sting." 

"Some Democrats said that an ally like Mr. Murtha in the No. 2 spot would give Mrs. Pelosi unchecked power," per the Washington Times.  "But most Democrats said they opposed Mr. Murtha because they had run campaigns on a promise to clean up corruption in Washington." 

Although Democrats tried to suggest they were unified after the election, the New York Times has this nugget: "Some supporters of Mr. Murtha … were disgruntled and said they were trying to identify lawmakers who had broken pledges to support him.  'We won't trust them on issues like this the next time,' said Representative James P. Moran, a Murtha ally from Virginia who said Mr. Murtha had been betrayed." 

"The rejection of Pelosi's favorite stood in sharp contrast to the ability of House Republicans to march largely in lockstep behind their leaders and in support of [Bush's] agenda in recent years," Bloomberg says.  "The fact that Pelosi backed Murtha" despite his ethical issues "even as Democrats accused Republicans of fostering a culture of corruption raises questions about her decision-making." 

Some of the Blue Dog Democrats, whose membership is now 44 strong, are now lobbying Pelosi to keep Rep. Jane Harman in the top slot at the House Intelligence Committee.  "Pelosi will have the authority to appoint the Intelligence Committee chair without consulting the Democratic Caucus.  House Democratic insiders have repeatedly said they expect Pelosi to remove Harman from the Intelligence post."

Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean huddles with his fans among the party's state chairs in Jackson Hole, WY.

Incoming Senate Finance chair Max Baucus "said yesterday that he wants to hold hearings on looming insolvencies in the Medicare and Social Security programs but that President Bush's plan to partially privatize Social Security is dead." 

 

McClatchy writes that despite Bush's public efforts to give the appearance that he's willing to work with Democrats, his agenda says otherwise.  The "agenda he has sent to Congress since then is full of Republican proposals that have no chance of winning bipartisan approval.  More likely such items will enrage Democrats, rally his conservative base and appear to be intended to portray Democrats as obstructionist."

Bush's choice for deputy assistant HHS secretary of population affairs, Eric Keroack, is an OBGYN who "worked at a Christian pregnancy-counseling organization that regards the distribution of contraceptives as 'demeaning to women'...  The appointment, which does not require Senate confirmation, was the latest provocative personnel move by the White House since Democrats won control of Congress in this month's midterm elections." 

Bloomberg says the battle for leadership slots between the status quo, represented by Boehner and Blunt, and the GOP base, represented by Pence and Shadegg, presents a dilemma for Republicans because "most of the seats the party lost are in the Northeast, home to its most moderate members.  To regain them, the party must reach out to independent voters." 

The Republican National Committee is contending with mixed reports on whether or not the committee chairmanship was actually offered to failed Maryland Senate nominee Michael Steele. 

"Florida authorities have opened a criminal investigation into the sexually explicit computer messages that former Rep. Mark Foley sent to male congressional pages."  This comes on top of the outgoing FBI and House Ethics probes. 

 

At a press avail in Hanoi, President Bush referenced the lake "where John McCain got pulled out," calling it "one of the most poignant moments of the drive...  And he's a friend of ours; he suffered a lot as a result of his imprisonment, and yet, we passed the place where he was, literally, saved, in one way, by the people pulling him out."

In his twin speeches yesterday, "McCain cited Reagan frequently as the guidepost for the future of the party.  In contrast, he never mentioned Bush by name, although he was implicitly critical of the administration's conduct of the war in Iraq.  By choosing two conservative audiences..., McCain demonstrated his desire to mend relations with the right." 

McCain also told a group of conservative lawyers that he is "very proud" of his role in the Gang of 14.  He "said he wanted to preserve the filibuster option for future times, but also said the deal struck by the 14 senators has helped to push through some of Mr. Bush's more contentious nominees." 

The New York Times reports that Rudy Giuliani met with about "30 supporters from around the country who discussed how they would organize fund-raising for a presidential run, said Roy W. Bailey, the finance chairman of the Rudy Giuliani Presidential Exploratory Committee Inc…  Among those who attended were Thomas O. Hicks, owner of the Texas Rangers; Mel M. Immergut, chairman of the New York law firm Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy; Patrick C. Oxford, managing partner at the Houston law firm Mr. Giuliani joined last year; William E. Simon Jr., an investor who ran for governor of California in 2002; and Barry D. Wynn, a former chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party." 

Gov. Mitt Romney (R) may be throwing his hat into the ring soon.  The Boston Globe reports that Romney and close advisors and supporters are set to meet in a "powwow" this weekend at an "undisclosed location" to discuss his 2008 plans.  Romney "is huddling with advisers and donors just as the field of GOP presidential hopefuls begins to come into sharper focus...  Romney's meetings this weekend are certain to touch on his plans for 2008 and how and when to make them known." 

Former Sen. John Edwards (D) does Letterman tonight.  Per the Raleigh News & Observer, a "staffer for [Edwards] tried to buy a PlayStation 3 for the former U.S. senator's family at a Raleigh Wal-Mart on the same day Edwards was criticizing the giant retailer's treatment of its employees, the company said Thursday…  Edwards said Thursday night that he and his family do not shop at Wal-Mart, but that a volunteer aide acted on his own initiative." 

The Los Angeles Times reports that "lawmakers in California and Florida are eyeing earlier primary dates for the 2008 election that would force contenders to campaign in their states...  Such a change would transform the nomination battles in both parties, forcing candidates to compete in some of the country's priciest media markets while diverting their attention from... small towns and cities where old-style retail politics is king...  Well-funded front-runners on both sides... would likely benefit, while lesser-known contenders with slimmer bank accounts would find their tasks even more daunting." 

 

By our count, Democrats currently hold a 232-198 advantage over Republicans in the House, with five undecided races:

-- NM-1 (where GOP Rep. Heather Wilson holds a lead over Democrat Patricia Madrid)
-- NC-8 (where GOP Rep. Robin Hayes holds a lead over Democrat Larry Kissell)
-- OH-2 (where GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt holds a lead over Democrat Victoria Wulsin)
-- OH-15 (where GOP Rep. Deborah Pryce holds a lead over Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy)
-- TX-23 (where GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla is in a runoff against Democrat Ciro Rodriguez)

Even though the AP called a Florida race in favor of Vern Buchanan (R), he and Democrat Christine Jennings (D) are involved in a recount down in Florida.  And a final undecided seat -- the runoff in Louisiana between incumbent Bill Jefferson and challenger Karen Carter -- will stay in Democratic hands since both are Democrats.

After seven House aides who worked for former Rep. Tom DeLay (R) and stayed on to work for his replacement resigned from her staff after only about 24 hours, the replacement, Shelley Sekula-Gibbs (R), is now calling for a probe "to investigate the possibility that her ex-staffers tampered with office computers a day before they left."

"'As public servants, they have harmed the 22nd Congressional District and they have brought shame to this office,' Sekula-Gibbs said in a statement.  'I have a duty to investigate.'"

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Current House Democratic Whip Steny Hoyer has defeated Rep. John Murtha for the post of majority leader in the 110th Congress.  The preliminary vote was 149-86.  The contest became acrimonious in the final days as Leader Nancy Pelosi weighed in with an endorsement of Murtha, and as Pelosi and other Murtha supporters began leaning heavily on the rank-and-file to vote for him.  There may be lingering hard feelings as Democrats prepare to control Congress in January.  More to come.