Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman has sent a memo to the press -- er, to GOP supporters touting the narrowing generic ballot result and the strength of the RNC's GOTV efforts.

The Washington Post says in its look at the two parties' last-minute pushes to get out the vote, "GOP strategists said they think their prospects continue to improve as voters digest the guilty verdict against former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, positive economic statistics and the prospect of Democrats taking control of one or both chambers of the legislative branch...  A senior GOP strategist said party officials anticipated that the generic vote would tighten, but they do not consider the shift significant enough to change the contours of this election.  More than 20 GOP incumbents are tied with their opponents heading into the final days." 

The New York Times writes that win or lose tomorrow, "Mr. Bush and his aides are charting a course that they say will take the president back to his roots as Texas governor, when he worked in a more bipartisan way with Democrats.  They are piecing together a domestic agenda that includes reviving the president's failed bid to overhaul entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid."  More: "But it is not clear how much bipartisanship is possible, even if Mr. Bush proves serious about it." 

The Washington Post reports that Speaker Dennis Hastert's future "is in doubt even if the Republicans retain control of the House because of unease among GOP lawmakers about his handling of the Foley page scandal and what a House ethics committee investigation might conclude about him." 

Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean appears alongside his GOP counterpart, Ken Mehlman!  Well, in print, anyway.  Dean and Mehlman have dueling op-eds in USA Today.  Mehlman combines familiar GOP rhetoric from Bush, Cheney, Rove, etc. to charge that Democrats are weak on security and bad on taxes.  Dean basically repeats the Democrats' "Six for '06" agenda. 

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi holds a conference call with the Democratic caucus today to talk about the latest developments in the election and about Democratic "voter-protection" efforts.

"The Democrats face their own pressures" with this election, Bloomberg notes.  "So many pollsters and pundits are predicting they will win the House that failing to do so might seriously rock the party's confidence and future...  Also, while Democrats have benefited from their opposition to Iraq, should they gain power they may be expected to come up with a solution to the war.  Some Democrats urge their party to resist that pressure." 

The Washington Post's Howard Kurtz says reporters may be rooting for a Democrat-run House because "divided government would produce what reporters like best: conflict...  Even the mundane prospect of the Democrats being able to bring their preferred legislation to the floor -- though most bills might never make it past the president's veto pen -- would give journalists a new script.  Divided government may or may not be good for the country, but it's great for the Fourth Estate." 

 

Obviously there's a lot out there today.  Among the better round-ups:

The Los Angeles Times leads its look at GOTV efforts with this question, "Which political force will prove stronger - the niche-marketing effort, led by GOP strategist Karl Rove and powered by computerized outreach methods, or the classic 'throw the bums out' mood of an electorate uneasy with the Iraq war and unhappy with one-party rule?" 

USA Today looks at the huge cash infusions into key races by the campaign committees and outside groups.  "Just since Friday, Republicans have put more than $2 million into Senate races in New Jersey, Tennessee and Virginia, federal reports show.  Democrats have spent $1.1 million for Senate candidates in Maryland, Montana, Tennessee and Virginia...  Major players for Republicans include tax and abortion opponent groups, the American Medical Association and the National Rifle Association.  Unions, environmentalists, backers of gay and abortion rights, and MoveOn.org are helping Democrats...  Small donors are another growing force," contributing "47% of what parties have raised this year, up from 28% in 2002.  The main reason is the rise of online giving." 

And in a lengthy article featuring dispatches from several of the most competitive House races in the country, the New York Times notes how Iraq, immigration, and the nation's economy have become the most pressing issues in the waning days of these campaigns. 

Democrat Sherrod Brown of Ohio, his party's challenger to GOP Sen. Mike DeWine, is having to move his election-night party from a Hyatt in Columbus to a public auditorium in Cleveland. Per Brown spokesperson Joanne Kuebler, the Columbus hotel isn't big enough to accommodate the crowd they're now anticipating, whereas the Cleveland auditorium holds about 2,000 people. Kuebler says Brown's campaign is hearing from "all kinds of people who've known him for years." A string of public polls have shown Brown with a healthy and consistent lead over DeWine, and Democrats still smarting from President Bush's victory-cinching Ohio victory in 2004 clearly are looking to celebrate.

Remember Abramoff-plagued GOP Rep. Bob Ney? He has formally resigned from Congress. This was a forgone conclusion -- the only question being exactly when he would do it. Ney was facing the threat of an expulsion vote in the House come November 14, when they're scheduled to reconvene, and many on both sides had assumed he was hanging on just to collect the extra few thousand dollars in pay.

President Bush has a new riff in his rallying cry, accusing Democrats of not having an agenda to fight terrorism. Bush in Springfield, MO today: "So if you happen to bump into a Democrat candidate, you might want to ask this simple question: What's your plan? If they say they want to protect the homeland, but oppose the Patriot Act, ask them this question: What's your plan? If they say they want to uncover terrorist plots, but oppose listening in on terrorist conversations, ask them this question: What's your plan?... If they say they want to win the war on terror, but call for America to pull out from what al Qaeda says is the central front in this war, ask them this question: What's your plan?"

To which the audience finally responded, "What's your plan?"

It's true that Democrats have not proposed much by way of an agenda on fighting terrorism. According to House Democrats' "Six for '06" agenda released earlier this year, which is basically an outline of what they'd tackle in their first 100 legislative hours in the majority, they would: require the Iraqis to take responsibility for their country and begin a phased redeployment of US forces from Iraq in 2006; double the size of US special forces to destroy Osama bin Laden and terrorist networks like al Qaeda; and implement the September 11 commission's recommendations to secure America's borders and ports. (How they plan to get these items past a GOP-run Senate and signed into law remains to be seen.)

Despite Bush's efforts to call attention to this vague anti-terror agenda, polls show that the onus is still on him because of public dissatisfaction with the Iraq war. He showed no sign of seeing any irony of having thousands of people chanting to him, "What's your plan?"

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Four days left...  President Bush's final campaign swing, now on day two, already seems marked by big and small awkward moments ranging from his flubbing the name of Shanksville, PA yesterday to a series of events in Ted Haggard's home state tomorrow. 

Yesterday as Bush campaigned in Nevada, a software entrepreneur who is suing his former business partner issued a statement detailing influence-peddling charges against the former partner and Rep. Jim Gibbons, the GOP nominee for governor.  Gibbons denies the claims.  And tomorrow, Bush is scheduled to spend the day in Colorado, home base of White House advisor Haggard, who has resigned from his stewardship of the National Association of Evangelicals in the face of accusations that he paid for sex with a male prostitute.  Indeed, Vice President Cheney is actually in Colorado today for a welcome-home rally with troops at Fort Carson and a rally in Colorado Springs, the seat of prominent Christian conservatives such as Haggard and Focus on the Family's James Dobson.

Bush's day yesterday also included: a reference to Shanksville, PA, site of the United Flight 93 crash on September 11, as Lancaster, PA, per NBC's Kelly O'Donnell; a rare stumble at the top of the steps of Air Force One, per the pool report; and some incident in which Air Force One apparently knocked out the runway lights when it took off from the Elko, NV airport, per NBC's David Gregory.

But in a more worrisome awkward moment, the GOP's respite from bad news on Iraq that came courtesy of Sen. John Kerry (D) appears to have ended.  The latest incident which could undermine the party's advantage over Democrats on national security is a New York Times report that the federal government put up a website on Iraqi war documents in hopes of proving that Saddam Hussein had WMD, and that the documents provide a guide to building an atom bomb. 

The news will undoubtedly overshadow the latest positive development for the GOP on the economic front.  The jobs report for October shows that the US economy picked up a mere 92,000 jobs last month, but that unemployment is at its lowest level in five years at 4.4%.  Clearly anticipating good news, the White House yesterday announced a slew of press interviews scheduled for Bush officials.

In recent times, a strong October jobs report released right around an election (depending on the year, the reports sometimes come out the Friday after election day) has usually been associated with good news for the party occupying the White House.  In 2002, the economy gained 112,000 jobs in October, which was significantly higher than that year's monthly average, and the Republicans picked up seats.  In 2004, October again brought a stronger than average gain of 338,000 jobs, and Bush won re-election. 

What occurs in an election when a poor report is released is less clear.  In 1994, when Democrats were swept from power in Congress, the jobs gain that month was significantly below average.  However, October 1998 brought another below-average jobs report, but Democrats turned out to have a surprisingly good election day.  

And in his final National Journal column before the election, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook says that Democrats appear likely to gain 20-35 House seats (maybe more) and at least four Senate seats. "A six-seat gain, enough to grab the majority, is entirely possible."

Got calendar? 

Bush starts his day with rallies in Springfield and Joplin, MO, then heads to LeMars, IA for another one.  He ends the day in Englewood, CO, positioning him for events there tomorrow (including the delivery of his radio address) and a rally in Greeley.  The White House has provided a list of the candidates who are the focus of this presidential largesse in the final stretch.  In Missouri and Iowa today: the state parties and Iowa gubernatorial candidate Jim Nussle.  In Colorado tomorrow: Rep. Marilyn Musgrave,  In Nebraska and Kansas on Sunday: House candidate Adrian Smith of Nebraska and Rep. Jim Ryun of Kansas.  In Florida, Arkansas, and Texas on Monday: Florida gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist and state Republicans; Arkansas gubernatorial candidate Asa Hutchinson; and Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

Asked yesterday about Bush's final campaign swing of the cycle taking him to a series of states he won in 2004, White House spokesman Tony Fratto said, "We go where we think we can have the biggest impact in winning these seats...  We're being very strategic in where we go and we think you're going to see those results on Tuesday."  On who decided where to go in these final days, Fratto said many people were involved and the president also used 'his instincts.'"  "The president decides his final schedule," Fratto said. 

Bloomberg looks at the range of issues that are restricting Bush to "playing defense in friendly territory rather than attempting public events in Senate battlegrounds like Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia...  On the stump, Bush serves up a menu to appeal to cultural, religious and economic conservatives, outlining his administration's efforts to secure the border, increase surveillance of suspected terrorists, cut taxes, and appoint federal judges who will protect marriage as a union between a man and a woman.  One of his biggest applause lines comes when he denounces" the recent New Jersey Supreme Court decision" on gay marriage. 

The Des Moines Register previews Bush's visit to Iowa today for gubernatorial nominee Jim Nussle (R), who "is hoping President Bush can whip up the Republican base in GOP-heavy northwest Iowa today the way he did two years ago." 

Laura Bush rallies in Pleasanton, CA and Albuquerque today.

NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports that the Iraqi war documents were posted online in the first place because of pressure on the intelligence community from conservative lawmakers who said the experts weren't doing enough to prove that Saddam Hussein really had WMD.  In a November 2005 letter to intel chief John Negroponte, the chairs of the House and Senate intelligence committees wrote, "...the sheer volume of materials that we have obtained is overwhelming our intelligence community's ability to properly categorize and translate the contents, analyze and review the information, verify authenticity, and report to users the knowledge generated.  Many, if not most, of the literally millions of pages of documents are unclassified and could be worked by people who do not have security clearances."  The letter also said there needed to be "safeguards" to prevent forgeries, Mitchell reports. 

Another New York Times article reports that buried within the military spending bill Bush signed into law is a provision firing the US inspector general in Iraq -- who has sent US occupation officials to jail on bribery charges, exposed poor construction work by firms like Halliburton, and discovered that the military didn't properly track weapons it shipped to Iraqi security forces.  "The termination language was inserted into the bill by Congressional staff members working for Duncan Hunter, the California Republican who is the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee and who declared on Monday that he plans to run for president in 2008."  

The Washington Times says the Iraq war "is sapping Republican voter enthusiasm and undermining the party's candidates in races once thought safe."  But prominent conservative Paul Weyrich says the war isn't "the only discouragement for some Republican voters...  'The same things said of the war could be said of profligate spending...  Some of these senators and House members might withstand one or two big issues, but the when it gets to be several in addition to the war -- that is, corruption, immigration and spending -- then only the very safe members will be re-elected.'" 

The Boston Globe looks at how the war is causing many conservative voters in the South to rethink their support for the GOP.  "A scholar who studies the voting patterns of religious constituencies says that a combination of the war and a perceived lack of progress on social issues has led to a decline in evangelical support for the Republican Party, but that that support could be affected by last-minute get-out-the-vote campaigns." 

The Los Angeles Times looks at "the dual mood of Republicans in the final week before election day: Though there is pervasive fear that the party will lose control of Congress, a cadre of die-hard optimists is refusing to wave the white flag." 

The Wall Street Journal covers some GOP House members who were elected in 1994 and who now face tough races because of the "widespread sense that Republicans in Congress have lost their way, drifting into the same abuses they had pledged to end...  For many congressional Republicans, the shift from reform to self-preservation was most evident at the start of the current Congress last year," when "Tom DeLay, anticipating his indictment on corruption charges, pushed a change in House rules so he could remain as leader...  Of the Republicans who entered the House after 1994, just under half remain." 

The Washington Post looks at the battle between prominent conservatives James Dobson and former Rep. Dick Armey after Armey accused Dobson of helping to pry the GOP loose from its traditional conservative moorings and dividing the party between evangelicals and those who favor limited government and less spending. 

Not pegged to the Haggard story, the Financial Times examines rifts within the evangelical coalition as some leaders try to appeal to a broader range of voters. 

Nevada gubernatorial nominee and Rep. Jim Gibbons has asked the House Ethics Committee to weigh in on "whether he failed to report a Caribbean cruise that was paid for by a military contractor who is also a major donor to the congressman's campaign," the Wall Street Journal reports.  "Mr. Gibbons sought the panel's advice after a page-one article in [the Journal] raised questions about his close ties to Warren Trepp...  The Journal reported Wednesday that [Gibbons] opened doors in Washington for Mr. Trepp's eTreppid Technologies LLC, a software maker that won millions of dollars in classified contracts...  It reported that Mr. Gibbons, who served on the Intelligence and Armed Services committees, helped the Reno, Nev., company secure federal contracts and in some cases helped direct federal money to the contracts." 

NBC's Jim Popkin reports that Dennis Montgomery, a software entrepeneur who is involved in civil litigation with former partner Trepp, issued a statement yesterday in the wake of the original Journal report charging that Trepp "has money and the influence that money can buy, which he has used to secure political muscle, from those few who can be bought" -- including Gibbons, Montgomery claims.  "For over nine months, I have kept quiet about the spurious lawsuits, about Mr. Trepp, and about his political influence with James Gibbons, and other individuals inside the federal government...  I do not believe that all in involved are corrupt, Gibbons excluded..."  He accuses Trepp and Gibbons of "using their political muscle to harass" him and cause him legal problems.

A source tells the AP that very vulnerable Rep. Don Sherwood (R) of Pennsylvania agreed to pay the women he is accused of abusing $500,000 "in a settlement last year that contained a powerful incentive for her to keep quiet until after Election Day…  While Sherwood acknowledged the woman had been his mistress, he denied abusing her and said he had settled her $5.5 million lawsuit on confidential terms."  

The New York Times writes that while most of the attention this year has been on a few corrupt (or allegedly corrupt) Republicans running for office this year, there are also Democrats -- like Govs. Rod Blagojevich and Jim Doyle and Sen. Bob Menendez -- who have had to deal with charges of ethical misbehavior.  "But while the Democrats' problems have certainly made these races tighter than they might otherwise be, they have for the most part not carried the lethal sting of the Republicans' missteps, independent political scientists and election analysts say." 

USA Today focuses on a potentially high number of provisional ballots needing to be cast on Tuesday, which could delay the vote count in some key races.  "In 2004, the first year provisional ballots were used nationwide, about 1.9 million people cast them.  About 1.23 million of those, or nearly 65%, were ruled to be in order.  The number of provisional votes counted was about 1% of the 122 million votes cast for president." 

The Washington Post writes up Democratic concerns about new voter ID laws discouraging minorities from voting.  Indiana, where Democrats hope to knock off three Republican House members, has the toughest voter ID law in the country. 

"The Defense Department defended a new military voting program that lets servicemembers request and submit ballots by fax or e-mail.  Rep. Rush Holt, D-N.J., in a letter to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, said the electronic registration and voting service is well-intentioned but could expose troops to identity theft or allow hackers to tamper with ballots.  The Defense Department said the system is as secure as possible and that risks are detailed for military members when they access the e-mail system." 

The Democratic mayor of Houston's proposed program to offer flu shots at polling places is being criticized by Republicans who "argued it would increase Democratic turnout in the midst of a competitive Texas governor's race and boost the prospects of some city propositions on the ballot in Houston." 

MSNBC continues its wall-to-wall political coverage with a guest list including Tennessee Senate nominee Harold Ford (D), Texas gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman (I), and Mark Foley replacement candidate Joe Negron (R).

The Washington Post is the latest to put an estimated price tag on campaign advertising this year, well over $2 billion, as it looks at some of the 600 new TV ads candidates aim to air in the final days of the cycle.  The story says some Republicans are "trying to shift attention from Iraq and President Bush to local issues such as the environment, taxes and immigration." 

USA Today takes the latest look at Democratic efforts to catch up to Republicans in microtargeting to get out the vote. 

DNC chair Howard Dean campaigns in Toledo, OH and at several stops in Michigan.  RNC chair Ken Mehlman campaigns in Kentucky and Maryland. 

Former President Clinton campaigns with gubernatorial candidate Mike Beebe (D) in Arkansas today before heading to Wisconsin to headline an event for the state party.  Sen. Barack Obama (D) campaigns with his party's Senate and gubernatorial nominees in Maryland, then heads to Massachusetts to campaign with gubernatorial frontrunner Deval Patrick.

While stumping for vulnerable CALIFORNIA Rep. John Doolittle (R) yesterday, Laura Bush made an appeal for "'civility and respect'" this campaign season, the Sacramento Bee writes.  "Unlike her husband, President Bush, who has campaigned for GOP House and Senate candidates by aggressively attacking Democrats as a party of defeatism in Iraq and the war on terror, the first lady was understated as she called for support of troops in battle." 

Charges from liberal bloggers that the Democratic party has abandoned CONNECTICUT Senate nominee Ned Lamont are picking up coverage in advance of Lamont's anticipated loss to Sen. Joe Lieberman on election day.  Also, actor Paul Newman is starring in a new ad for Lamont.  In the ad, Newman says Connecticut "needs someone who is young, fresh and spunky," adding that 18 years in the Senate for Lieberman is enough. 

With Republican incumbents on defense in both of NEW HAMPSHIRE's House races, the Boston Globe writes that the red state may be falling into the swing-state category.  Analysts say the defeat of Reps. Charlie Bass or Jeb Bradley "coming two years after the election of a popular Democratic governor and victory for a Democratic presidential candidate, would mark a shift in New Hampshire...  Crusty, frugal New Hampshire has long been thought of as Republican territory . Now, it may join its heavily Democratic New England neighbors." 

NEW JERSEY Sen. Bob Menendez (D) campaigns with former Sen. Bill Bradley.

PENNSYLVANIA Gov. Ed Rendell, Senate candidate Bob Casey and other Democrats get the support of former Sen. John Edwards at a rally in Philadelphia, after which Edwards will hold a press conference.

Dueling polls in the TENNESSEE Senate race caused a fierce exchange of press releases yesterday.  A new Zogby poll taken for Reuters showed Democrat Harold Ford trailing Republican Bob Corker by 10 points.  It was the second poll this week to show a margin wider than just a few points in either direction, and the Ford campaign (as it did with the previous poll) tried to shoot the poll down, continuing to insist that their own private polling suggests the race is basically tied, and that the nonpartisan survey's sample may not have been as accurate a sample of the electorate as theirs.  The Democratic Senate campaign committee pitched in by releasing its own survey on the race which showed Ford leading by six points.

VERMONT Rep. Bernie Sanders (I) would become the Senate's first socialist if he wins next week.  "To many political observers, a Sanders win would be convincing evidence of Vermont's political shift to the left," notes the Boston Globe.

In Norfolk, VIRGINIA Senate candidate Jim Webb (D) campaigns with Richmond Mayor Doug Wilder, who was also the first (and so far, only) African-American to be elected governor.  Yesterday, Webb campaigned with Obama, Michael J. Fox, and Wes Clark.  On Monday he'll campaign with former President Clinton.  Sen. George Allen (R) has a string of smaller local events planned.  He has campaigned with Senate colleague John Warner and "will be joined by members of the state's Republican congressional delegation in coming days." 

From NBC's Huma Zaidi
According to a new round of Reuters/Zogby polls, Democrats are leading in six of the seven hottest Senate races heading into next week's midterm elections, a clear sign that they are within striking distance of netting the six seats they need to take back the Senate. 

Democrats duking it out with Republican incumbents in Missouri, Virginia and Montana are tied in statistical dead heats while Democratic candidates in Maryland, New Jersey and Connecticut have leads outside the margin of error.

Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) leads Ned Lamont (D) by 12 points in Connecticut, and Sen. Bob Menendez (D) leads challenger Tom Kean, Jr. (R) by the same margin. In Maryland, Ben Cardin (D) has a five-point lead over Michael Steele (R).

The one piece of good news for Republicans in the poll is in Tennessee, where Bob Corker (R) leads Harold Ford (D) by 10 points.

 

From NBC's Pete Williams
The timing of today's Justice Department announcement of a multi-state fugitive sweep has raised some eyebrows, coming five days before the midterm elections. But officials insist there was no political motive. Attorney General Alberto Gonzales joined the US Marshals service in revealing that nearly 11,000 fugitives -- including almost 1,700 sex offenders -- were swept up last week in a 24 states. It was the third installment of the Marshals Service's "Operation Falcon," in which federal agents team up with state and local police in an intense effort to pick up fugitives.

The two earlier roundups, in 2005 and 2006, were conducted in the spring. And this one concentrated on mainly eastern states, where many competitive political races are hotly contested. But the Marshals Service says the timing of this year's operation was based on the budget and the weather. Knowing that money was earmarked in the budget for this operation, they wanted to launch it as soon as the fiscal year began in October, before it begins snowing. The operation, including the states to be targeted, was planned several months ago, the marshals say. In the past two years, they add, money for the operation was derived from existing programs. A Justice Department official says, moreover, that the Marshals Service decided the timing, including the date for the announcement, and that DOJ headquarters had no role in the scheduling of the operation or today's announcement. 

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Five days left… It might have gotten lost in the recent flap over John Kerry's comments (which he finally apologized for yesterday afternoon), or in the constant back-and-forth over Iraq, or in the mountain of poll numbers we see everyday. But let's be clear about what's truly at stake on election day: control of the House. While Democrats' ability to regain the Senate seems up in the air, analysts and party strategists believe they're poised to win the lower chamber. And as NBC's Mike Viqueira reminds us, when you're talking about holding the majority in US House, you're talking about being in control of everything from how, when, and what is actually debated on the floor of the chamber, to what is served for lunch in the cafeteria.

"The job of the minority is to make a quorum and to draw its pay," said Speaker Thomas Reed in 1890, words that perfectly describe the sweeping hegemony of the majority party -- and emasculation of the minority -- that is as evident today as it was 116 years ago. The majority here controls every step of the process, and when you control the process, you control the substance.

Viq adds that it's not too much of an overstatement to say that the most oppressed minority in America is the minority in the "lower body." If you're a member of the party out of power -- like Democrats have been for the past 12 years -- you typically are not permitted to have your bills considered in committee or on the floor; you can't get your amendments debated and voted on (especially the ones that have a chance of passing); and you even have to go hat in hand to the majority staff in order to get a room to meet in. In short, this isn't "Schoolhouse Rock" and it never has been.

The Senate, where any one random member can raise his hand to object and gum up everything, is a completely different animal. But the House, Viq says, was designed to be more responsive to public sentiment, and over time the majority has established rules and procedures that make it easy to exercise its will and run roughshod over those out of power. It's what the legislative geeks call a "majoritarian institution." Yes, Nancy Pelosi has pledged to afford more rights to Republicans should Democrats take control come January 3. Just how much leeway she is willing to grant, however, might depend upon just how big a majority she holds. Tighter margins likely mean tighter controls. But whatever the case on the floor, Republicans would have minuscule staff on committees. Democrats holding the gavels would be the ones deciding what hearings to call, what oversight to conduct, and what investigations to undertake.

To get there, of course, Democrats will need to pick up 15 House seats. And one person trying to stop them -- President Bush -- today begins his final swing of campaign stops. He starts off his day in Montana stumping for vulnerable GOP Sen. Conrad Burns (whom some polls show to be within striking distance of holding onto his seat), and then travels to Nevada to attend a rally with GOP gubernatorial nominee Jim Gibbons (whose campaign has been rocked by allegations, which he denies, that he sexually assaulted a cocktail waitress in a parking garage). Meanwhile, Gibbons' opponent, Dina Titus, gets her own help today with appearances by Bill Clinton, Bill Richardson, and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid.

For the other races out there, MSNBC continues its wall-to-wall political coverage today with a plethora of guests including Rick Santorum (R), Katherine Harris (R), Ned Lamont (D), Sherrod Brown (D), Tom Reynolds (R), and presidential candidate Duncan Hunter (R). And there's plenty of continued speculation about whether Kerry's botched joke hurt his party's midterm prospects and his own presidential chances in 2008.

Got calendar?

The Washington Post: "GOP officials have tried to make the elections not a referendum on President Bush but a choice between two parties with competing visions over taxes, terrorism and Iraq, but they have struggled to find a symbol for Democrats. Kerry's comments have allowed Republicans to make him again the face of his party and cast 2006 as a rerun of Bush vs. Kerry."

The New York Times says, "National leaders calculated that the comments would probably not affect the elections. But Mr. Kerry's sudden center-stage appearance in the last days of the campaign revived grumblings about his putting his own political future ahead of the party's."  

Roll Call's Stu Rothenberg writes that "the die is cast, and at this point, even Kerry can't cost his party control of the House.  But the louder he complains about the president, and the more names he calls White House aides, the more he could energize Republicans, which would help the GOP hold another seat or two."

Senate contenders Harold Ford of Tennessee and Jim Webb of Virginia, along with Sens. Hillary Clinton and Bob Menendez, were among the Democrats who distanced themselves from Kerry yesterday. 

Per the Boston Globe, Kerry has also cancelled a campaign event in New Hampshire for congressional candidate Paul Hodes (D). And Kerry aides add the he "has not decided whether he will attend campaign events in Massachusetts before the election."

The Los Angeles Times says the gaffe "could hardly have come at a worse time for Kerry, who has been rebuilding his national campaign structure and hoping to capitalize on the goodwill he amassed by raising more than $12 million for 2006 candidates and campaigning in 35 states." In addition, "Democrats worry Kerry's words have made party candidates vulnerable to accusations of insensitivity toward troops in the final week of a campaign in which Democrats seemed to be benefiting from voters' unhappiness with the Iraq war." 

The Wall Street Journal observes, "Democrats see this election -- and 2008, to an even greater degree -- as pivotal to their bid to take on a tougher, but also wiser, foreign-policy husk. Some propose implementing tougher port and border security. Some key voices are also promoting a softer line toward North Korea and Iran, including the need for one-on-one talks. Yet the challenge the Democrats face is how to take on an image of steeliness while also pushing, as most in the party now are, to get out of Iraq as quickly as possible." Channeling First Read, the story notes that "Kerry's gaffe... shows how vulnerable Democrats remain on the issue." 

CNBC's Patti Domm advises that chain stores report October sales today, and markets and investors are watching closely to see what the retail industry will tell us about the strength of the consumer and the willingness to spend. The markets are also looking beyond today's productivity and factory orders and are focusing on tomorrow's very important jobs and employment data.

After campaigning today in Montana and Nevada, Bush -- who has spent the past few months stumping for Republicans who either reside in the reddest of states or face uphill races -- makes two appearances tomorrow in Missouri, which features perhaps the most competitive Senate contest in the country. Then he heads to a rally for Jim Nussle (R), who's engaged in an almost-equally competitive gubernatorial race. And on Saturday, the president heads back west to campaign for Colorado gubernatorial nominee Bob Beauprez (R) and vulnerable Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (R). 

If these next three days for Bush have one thing in common, it's that on each day, he's campaigning for a current GOP congressman running for governor -- Gibbons in Nevada, Nussle in Iowa, and Beauprez in Colorado -- who finds himself in a tougher-than-expected race. The reason (outside the allegations hovering over Gibbons): Serving in Congress has become an albatross, especially when its approval rating is as low at 16% in the NBC/WSJ poll. "The one thing people know about these guys is that they are members of Congress." Stuart Rothenberg of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report tells First Read. "I think they have all been damaged by that."

Those three aren't alone. Rep. Tom Osborne (R), a football god in Nebraska, lost his gubernatorial primary earlier this year. Moreover, the other GOP congressmen running for governor this year, Mark Green in Wisconsin and Butch Otter in Idaho, are getting all they can handle. "[Otter's] running even," says Jennifer Duffy, who monitors gubernatorial races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "What's that about? That shouldn't happen." And it's not just Republicans who are struggling -- Rep. Jim Davis (D) is trailing in his race for Florida governor.

About 1,000 tickets were distributed by the state Republican Party for Bush's stop in Montana today, the Billing Gazette reports. Bush will be joined by Burns and Republican candidates in other races on Tuesday's ballot. And when Bush visits Elko, NV today, he'll be the second president ever to do so.  

The Chicago Tribune previews Bush's campaign swing, and the paper notes that he "is stumping with the fervor of someone whose own office is at stake. And in many ways it is, considering the impact on the remaining two years of his presidency if the Democrats take control of the House and possibly the Senate."

The other campaigner-in-chief, First Lady Laura Bush, does a whirlwind four-state campaign tour today. First, she makes a stop in Michigan for Senate candidate Mike Bouchard (unfortunately, she'll miss Bouchard's later events with rockers Kid Rock and Uncle Kracker). Then she heads to Illinois, Iowa, and finally California.

The New York Times is the latest to write about how Republicans are peppering their ads with Nancy Pelosi's image. But will it work? "'It's awful hard to make a boogeyman out of someone no one knows,' said Ed Rollins, a Republican political consultant. 'The reality is, no one is going to vote for a Republican congressman because they are afraid of Nancy Pelosi.'"

As First Read suggested yesterday, the Washington Times writes that Bush's hopes for immigration reform might fare better with a Democrat-run House.

Speaking of immigration, a group of supporters of comprehensive immigration reform (read: pro-guest worker) have created a Web site at immigration2006.org that will catalogue the won-loss records of guest-worker supporters and guest-worker opponents in the most competitive midterm races across the country.

After malfunctions and counting problems during the Maryland primaries made national headlines, the Washington Post front-pages concerns about problems that might still remain. (GOP Gov. Bob Ehrlich, facing a tough re-election fight, has said he'll vote absentee because he doubts the system; Democrats have accused him of trying to spread skepticism about voting.)

Under an agreement reached yesterday, Ohio voters will not need to present ID to vote absentee, the Columbus Dispatch says, but they will need to show it at the polls on election day. "Lawyers for Attorney General Jim Petro and groups that had sued to block the ID requirement negotiated for about 13 hours yesterday before reaching a deal approved by U.S. District Judge Algenon L. Marbley. The agreement takes the dispute out of the courts."

Watchdog groups in Iowa are urging voters to avoid touch-screen voting, after reports of random glitches have surfaced. But in 19 counties in the state, voters will have no choice, unless they cast an absentee ballot, the Des Moines Register says.

Another estimate of the price tag for these midterms: $3.1 billion in advertising and direct mail. "The most noticeable change is in gubernatorial races, where spending will exceed $1 billion for the first time," says USA Today. "With 36 contests, many considered close, campaigns are on pace to spend $1.1 billion - up 757% vs. 2004, when there were just 11 races. House candidates will spend $744 million, up 38%, while Senate contenders are spending $705 million, up 40%." 

The New York Times writes that the GOP Senate campaign committee is pouring nearly $1 million into Maryland and $800,000 into Michigan, while Democrats announced that they will be buying air time in Arizona. Democratic Senate campaign committee chairman Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, holds a pen-and-pad press briefing to talk about expanding the Senate playing field.

Roll Call says the blow-up over Kerry's botched joke demonstrates the downside of Democrats' strategy to nationalize the elections by possibly reminding "swing voters what they don't like about Kerry and his party," while Republicans' insistence that they will run races on local issues hit a road bump this week with a "report in the Times Union serving Albany, N.Y., on Wednesday that state police responded to a call of alleged domestic violence at the home of Rep. John Sweeney (R-N.Y.) in December." Sweeney was already locked in a tight race to begin with. "The Kerry and Sweeney headlines illustrate just how volatile these elections have become - and are a reminder that the final days are sure to be brutal and unpredictable." 

CONNECTICUT Senate nominee Ned Lamont has spent almost $16 million of his own money on his challenge to Sen. Joe Lieberman.

NBC's Mark Potter reports from FLORIDA that in the race to replace resigned Rep. Mark Foley (R), replacement candidate Joe Negron (R) has waged a strong and well-financed campaign that many now feel he could win, even though Foley's name remains on the ballot.  (Republicans are urging voters to "Punch Foley For Joe.") Jim Kane, president of the Florida Voter independent polling organization, told Potter yesterday that GOP internal polls have Negron up by four points, a sign to him that Republican voters are finally "coming home" and are still unwilling to give the seat to a Democrat, despite the scandal.  Robert Watson, a political scientist at Florida Atlantic University, tells Potter he also believes the traditionally Republican district will remain in the GOP column, even though the latest public polls have the Democrat ahead.

While Rep. Katherine Harris managed not to stumble in last night's Florida Senate debate, the Miami Herald says that "With less than a week to the election, though, there were few fireworks, and with Nelson maintaining his cool, it was unlikely Harris delivered the knockout required to overcome the incumbent's daunting lead in the polls."

The Boston Globe says last night's MASSACHUSETTS gubernatorial debate was the "nastiest" debate yet with candidate Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) and Deval Patrick (D) going to the mat on a host of issues including education, crime and honesty.

Pegged to Bush's visit to MONTANA today to campaign for vulnerable Sen. Conrad Burns (R), Bob Novak writes has Burns seems to have closed the gap against Jon Tester (D) by emphasizing that he will raise taxes. "Democrats want a referendum on Burns, while Republicans want a choice between Burns and Tester. Which tactic works will determine the winner here and perhaps control of the Senate."

"'You Votin' For Me?'" The New York Daily News reports that NEW YORK Sen. Hillary Clinton is adding some muscle to her campaign -- Robert DeNiro. The actor has recorded phone messages for her boasting "that Clinton 'took on the Bush administration' to keep a Dubai-owned company from managing the city's ports and has worked to boost homeland security funds." Voters in New York should also expect to hear from actor Paul Newman, too.

The New York Times examines the at least four GOP-held congressional seats that are in play in OHIO.  "Discontent with the war in Iraq, the limping regional economy and a corruption scandal in the Republican-controlled statehouse tilted the table in favor of the Democrats from the start of the campaign. But in the final days before the election, Republicans are fighting hard to hold on."

The Washington Post looks at how endangered GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee of RHODE ISLAND can become the nice guy turned nasty when on the ropes, and how it has worked for him before.

 

From NBC's Mark Murray
Sen. John Kerry's office just released this statement from the senator: "As a combat veteran, I want to make it clear to anyone in uniform and to their loved ones: my poorly stated joke at a rally was not about, and never intended to refer to any troop. I sincerely regret that my words were misinterpreted to wrongly imply anything negative about those in uniform, and I personally apologize to any service member, family member, or American who was offended." 

Kerry adds, "It is clear the Republican Party would rather talk about anything but their failed security policy. I don't want my verbal slip to be a diversion from the real issues. I will continue to fight for a change of course to provide real security for our country, and a winning strategy for our troops."

From NBC's Mark Murray and Kelly O'Donnell
It's official: John Kerry's controversial (and arguably overblown) remarks have become a second-day news story. Once again, the White House has released advance excerpts of a speech -- this time Vice President Cheney's -- that slam Kerry for suggesting that US soldiers are in Iraq because they didn't study hard in school; Kerry says he was joking that this country is in Iraq because Bush -- not US troops -- didn't study hard. "Of course, now Senator Kerry says he was just making a joke, and he botched it up," Cheney is expected to say today. "I guess we didn't get the nuance. He was for the joke before he was against it. As a leading Democratic senator, John Kerry needs to learn that the men and women serving in Iraq aren't there because they didn't study hard or do their homework." 

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld also commented on Kerry's remarks during an interview with a conservative radio host. "I just can't imagine why anyone would say something like that," Rumsfeld said. "The young men and women who serve in the armed forces of the United States are amazing, and indeed, they're inspirational." Strikingly, the Kerry flap barely came up in President Bush's interview today with Rush Limbaugh, but he did say: "Anybody who is in a position to serve this country ought to understand the consequences of words. And our troops deserve the full support of people in government."

Democrats -- including those who might run against Kerry for president in 2008 -- also have chimed in. Hillary Clinton called Kerry's remarks "inappropriate." And John Edwards talked about his former runningmate as he was voting early today in North Carolina. Per Edwards' aides, the former senator said that Kerry made a mistake, Kerry said he made a mistake, and that was that.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Six days left...  Few things galvanize the Bush White House and GOP -- and get Democratic lawmakers cringing -- as quickly and uniformly as an inartful remark about Iraq uttered by Sen. John Kerry (D).  But as the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows, when it comes to Iraq, Republicans are standing on ground that is far less solid than it was in 2004.

Kerry's initial comment came in a joking riff at the top of a speech in Los Angeles on Monday, sandwiched in between a crack about President Bush and one about special prosecutors.  "You know education, if you make the most of it, you study hard, you do your homework and you make an effort to be smart, you - you can do well.  If you don't, you get stuck in Iraq."  Kerry and associates say the remark was "a botched joke" about the President and his people, not about the troops, and that the White House is now distorting the remark for political gain.  NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that per a source close to Kerry, he was making "a tough and honest joke" about Bush and it came out slightly mangled. 

Provided with an inch, Republican officials looking to rile up their base and distract Democrats in advance of the midterms tried to take a mile, accusing Kerry of insulting US troops serving in the war.  The White House has incorporated the charge into their rallying cry: Vice President Cheney, campaigning in Montana later today, will attack Kerry for allegedly insulting the troops.  Bush, who whacked Kerry at a Georgia rally yesterday, is likely to talk about it in his interview with Rush Limbaugh today.

The moment has allowed a GOP which has become increasingly divided over the war in this final stretch before election day to show a glimmer of their old unity.  The party's ranks remain divided over what course to pursue in Iraq, where US troops just concluded their deadliest month in a year.  Endangered Republican incumbents on the ballot next week continue to distance themselves from Bush and call for Defense Secretary Rumsfeld to resign.

Public opinion about Iraq is markedly different now than when Bush and Republicans clubbed Kerry with his awkward statements about the war back in 2004.  The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows that the war remains the top issue for voters, but is far less popular and a source of growing pessimism.  Today, 27% of registered voters think the war will come to a successful conclusion -- a 19-point drop from October 2004.  The 61% who feel the war will not come to a successful conclusion today also marks the first time that figure has ever crossed 60% in our survey.  Confidence that the war will end successfully also has dropped five points since last month.  And no matter which party is in the majority next year, 34% of those polled said that "more oversight in Iraq" should be Congress' top priority, second only to improving the health care system (36%). 

Overall, the new NBC/Journal poll, taken from October 28-30 of 1,010 registered voters (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15497989), suggests that the GOP slide of recent weeks has leveled off but that the party remains at dangerous lows.  As they did two weeks ago, Democrats lead Republicans on the generic congressional ballot test by 15 points, 52% to 37%.  Bush's job approval is 39%. 

If Republicans are looking to rile up their base, Kerry has his own reasons to try to appeal to his party's liberal core by taking on "a stuffed suit White House mouthpiece standing behind a podium, or doughy Rush Limbaugh," as he put it.  But those ambitions have more to do with his presidential aspirations for 2008 than with trying to help his party win in 2006.  Or at least, that's what annoyed and concerned Democrats in Washington are muttering, even as the party's base cheers Kerry on. 

The situation is uncomfortable for Democratic lawmakers because it has highlighted a fact that had gone unnoticed in the face of the GOP's increasing disunity -- that Democrats aren't all on the same page on Iraq, either.  The last time Republicans were handed such a moment to spotlight this fact was in early August when Sen. Joe Lieberman (D) lost his primary.  Not only that, but despite their tougher rhetoric about the war over the past several months, top Democrats remain spooked by allegations that they don't support the troops.  As Republicans piled on yesterday, few prominent Democrats stepped forward to stand with Kerry.  Perhaps that situation will change -- for better or worse -- when Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean holds a press conference in Vermont today.

Kerry has canceled appearances for Democratic candidates in Minnesota and Iowa, scuttling an anticipated "showdown" in Mankato, MN today, where both Kerry and Sen. John McCain (R) were scheduled to campaign for the candidates in a contested House race, MSNBC.com's Tom Curry reports.  The Republican incumbent yesterday called for the Democrat to return a $1,000 contribution from Kerry's PAC and to cancel the Kerry event "in light of Kerry's inflammatory remarks belittling American armed forces."

Got calendar? 

In prepared remarks provided to the press, Kerry intended to say: "'Do you know where you end up if you don't study, if you aren't smart, if you're intellectually lazy?...  You end up getting us stuck in a war in Iraq.  Just ask President Bush.'" 

"In attacking Mr. Kerry and defending the war," the New York Times says, "the White House clearly made the calculation that achieving what has been its main strategic goal this year - firing up a dispirited conservative base - would outweigh any risk that might come in spotlighting a war that Republican Party officials said had become a huge burden for its candidates." 

The Republican National Committee, in an attempt to make more hay out of Kerry's comment, is releasing a new Web ad -- meaning there's no money behind it -- contrasting Kerry's statement with Republicans who are praising US troops.  The ad's kicker: "John Kerry should apologize.  Our soldiers are waiting."

"Democratic strategist Mike McCurry, a former press secretary for President Clinton, said Kerry 'should apologize' but added that the White House's reaction smacks of desperation," reports the Boston Herald. 

As NBC's Lisa Myers suggested here yesterday, NBC's Bob Windrem reports that a senior US intelligence official says there is no information pointing to an Osama bin Laden audio or video tape being released prior to the congressional elections.  However, the official added that it is possible that bin Laden could release such a tape or have a surrogate deliver a message.  The official noted that bin Laden has broadcast five audio messages this year, although none in the past four months.  That number, he noted, is a lot more than bin Laden did last year.  His last video message was aired October 29, 2004, just before the presidential election.  Its threatening tone is believed to have had some effect on the election.

The Wall Street Journal looks at how Iraq is a "vexing" issue for both parties in the final stretch -- Democrats as well as Republicans.  The GOP's problem is spelled out in the new NBC/Journal poll.  Top Democrats "have failed to coalesce around a single strategy for reducing the violence there, and Democratic leaders have offered diverging strategies for Iraq that range from beginning a troop withdrawal before the end of the year to splitting the country into three ethnic regions.  Democrats also are struggling to find a way of criticizing the administration's handling of Iraq without appearing to denigrate the U.S. military personnel serving there."   

Lost in yesterday's back-and-forth over Kerry's remarks was Sen. Hillary Clinton's speech yesterday at the Council on Foreign Relations in which, the New York Times says, she called for a "'fundamental change of course'" in Iraq and presented her most comprehensive criticism yet of the Administration's handling of the war. 

The Financial Times points out that the midterms "could help decide the fate of two of the most controversial Bush administration officials," Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and UN Ambassador John Bolton.  The paper reports that unless the Senate confirms Bolton, whose recess appointment expires in January, his "term would when Congress recessed after the elections, which is likely to happen before Thanksgiving on November 23."  If so, he "could leave at a crucial moment in negotiations over a Security Council sanctions resolution to be imposed on Iran."  Rumsfeld's battle, on the other hand, is against public opinion.