From NBC's Lisa Daniels
PITTSBURGH - We just came back from Republican Sen. Rick Santorum's latest campaign stop - a phone bank where 40 volunteers are working the phones at a feverish pace. As the candidate entered the room, someone shouted out: "Go get 'em, Rick!"

The mood? Upbeat. Santorum told me he thinks the polls (indicating he's trailing Democrat Robert Casey Jr. by a double-digit lead) are inaccurate. He pointed to the volunteers - called them "his secret weapon" - and projected a win.

When asked whether his close alliance with President Bush hurt him, he admitted that it might have at the beginning of the race. But he said voters are going to cast their ballot on the basis of an honest assessment of the two candidates. Santorum believes that choice is easy - a senator with a proven record who tells voters his views on the issues, versus a candidate who "complains and offers no solutions."

Most interesting - Santorum's answer to the question, "Would you do anything differently in hindsight?" It wasn't so much the substance of his answer, but rather the hesitation that preceded it. He smiled, paused, and then said that he isn't the type of person who second-guesses himself.

Just so you know, we're covering the Santorum race from Pittsburgh (campaign headquarters for election night). So, I've been especially diligent in keeping close contact with Casey's top aides. They tell me that Casey has already voted, and to their delight, was joined by about 100 supporters.

Casey's aides have an interesting take on some of the "inside baseball" tactical mistakes made by the Santorum campaign. Mistake No. 1: Santorum waited too long before taking to the airwaves. It allowed Casey's campaign to stay in the game without spending money. In the homestretch, Casey's people pummeled the airwaves with campaign ads. (They point out that Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell did the opposite - delivering a knockout punch in the beginning. They label the differing tactics between Gov. Rendell and Sen. Santorum as the "tale of two incumbents.")

I'll leave it to the readers to determine if they agree.

Santorum's response to the above? "Casey's surrogates are so busy talking money. They should be talking about the candidates."

We're off to the Omni William Penn Hotel - Santorum Central.. More later ...

From NBC's Mark Murray
Is today going to get any crazier? NBC affiliate WAVE-TV is reporting on a poll worker, at a Ford auto plant union hall in Kentucky, who apparently choked a voter. WAVE has been told that this poll worker has been arrested.

From NBC's Patrice Fletcher with Alan Cohen
COLUMBUS, Ohio - Election officials here are calling the voter turnout "moderate" and consistent with previous midterm elections. A spokesman at the Ohio Secretary of State's office said they are still expecting a 54 percent turnout. That is slightly higher than the turnouts of the last 10 years, but lower than the 1994 record of 56 percent.

From NBC's Ron Allen
In New Jersey's senatorial campaign, Republican candidate Tom Kean Jr.'s aides are charging that opponents "already have resorted to Election Day dirty tricks."

Last night, vandals chained shut the Kean campaign's headquarters in Mountainside, N.J., and broke keys off in the door locks to prevent entry, according to aides. "It's Jersey ... this is not surprising," Kean spokeswoman Jill Hazelbaker told us. "It's the Menendez campaign, or their supporters," she added, but without offering evidence.

"It's just a lot of noise," was the response from campaign aides for Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez. They say they have "thousands" of lawyers at polling places across the site, especially where they expect problems - such as Essex and Hudson County, two big urban Democratic areas.

Menendez's folks are checking out a report of electronic voting problems in Essex County, where voting machines are reportedly defaulting to certain candidates rather than voters' choices. Whatever is happening there, they say that the problems don't appear to be widespread and that right now the voting process is "basically smooth."

From NBC's Courtney Kube
There's no word on how many military absentee ballots have been returned (they're counted by the states), but through October 29, approximately 137,000 absentee ballots were sent out to overseas military addresses, with approximately 400,000 currently overseas active duty military and active reserve personnel eligible to vote. The Pentagon defines this as the number of ballots that have traveled through a military mail facility.  Some may not yet have been counted (sent in a package from a family member, etc.).

A Pentagon official says that when the ballots get counted is up to the states. Nearly all hold the ballots until Election Day.

This is the first year that the Pentagon has tracked the number of absentee ballots. For perspective, in 2004, 73% of all active members of the military voted, absentee, and otherwise. In the last midterm election in 2002, 42% voted.  These percentages come from the Pentagon's regular post-election survey, which is mandated by Congress and is taken of all active members of the military.

From NBC's Ron Mott and Patrice Fletcher
COLUMBUS, Ohio - Here in the Buckeye State, the focus is not so much on the individual races but on the voting process, which was beset by problems during the 2004 presidential election. Already today, issues have been reported around the state with electronic voting machines, optical scanners, long lines and voter identification.

Two Republican House members reportedly encountered difficulties at their respective polling stations. U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot was said to be turned away for not having proper identification, and Rep. Jean Schmidt could not get the scanner to accept her ballot.

There are other sporadic reports of problems around the state, but state officials say they have heard nothing that would indicate an orchestrated effort to affect the voting process. For the first time, all 88 counties will utilize some form of electronic voting, retiring the much-maligned punch cards. Turnout is expected to reach 54 percent.

A group of Ohio State University law professors and their students will be closely monitoring the voting process here in Ohio as well as in nine other key states as well.

As for the campaigns, Democrats appear poised for a big celebration, holding comfortable leads in last-minutes polls for Senate and governor, both of which have been in Republican control for more than a dozen years.

According to the final Ohio Poll, sponsored by the University of Cincinnati, Republican Sen. Mike DeWine trails Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown by as much as 12 percentage points, and Democrat Ted Strickland leads Republican Ken Blackwell in the gubernatorial race by 14 points.

From NBC's Kevin Tibbles and Mark Hudspeth
ST. LOUIS, Mo. -- At more than $40 million, Missouri's senate race is the most expensive in the country. After just 30 minutes of television it's easy to see why.  Even on Election Day, political ads - nasty ones - blanket local television. One accuses Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill of overlooking a rape at nursing home owned by her husband. Another features an Iraq War veteran who blames Republican incumbent Jim Talent for having to wait six months for a doctor's appointment after he returned to the war. More than half of the money spent in this race has come from outside the state: congressional campaign committees and trade lobbies hoping to influence the out come of a Senate race that's still too close call.

Ironically, even with all the outside money being poured into this race, it may be a homegrown issue that proves to be pivotal. The state's controversial ballot initiative on stem-cell research gained national attention after Rush Limbaugh mocked an ad featuring Michael J. Fox, but the initiative Fox was advocating doesn't actually legalize or criminalize any activity. Amendment 2, as the measure is known, adds to the state's constitution the right to do any research allowed by federal law in Missouri. Proponents of stem-cell research who hope to make Missouri a nationwide hub for medical research placed the initiative on the ballot. It's essentially an effort to head off the state legislature, which has tried and failed in recent years to criminalize certain types of embryonic stem-cell research.

Even though recent polls indicate a majority of voters support stem-cell research, its unclear how this vote might influence the Senate race. McCaskill supports the initiative and Talent opposes it. But the issue hasn't been front in center in either's campaign so it's unclear how closely Missouri voters will identify the candidates with their positions. However, if social conservatives turn out to oppose the measure, it's likely they might also cast a ballot for Talent. And in a race this close, if Amendment 2 brings even a few voters to the polls who wouldn't have otherwise been there, that could prove decisive.

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
We've received reports of problems with voting machines in Florida, Indiana and Utah -- and one car that ran into a polling place in Springfield, OH.  NBC affiliate WDTN reports there was "some damage" to the building, but people inside don't appear to have been hurt.  The male driver also was not hurt -- and was able to vote.

By NBC's Les Kretman
The language at the elementary school is usually French, but not today. It is Ecole Primaire (the French International School) every day of the year, but not on Election Day in Chevy Chase, MD. And usually on Election Day, turnout here among suburban voters is genteel and sublimely civil, everyone knowing everyone --- perhaps something for a budding Monet or Seurat to paint.

But this year as I approached our polling place, it was obvious that something was very different. Cars parked every which way as if their drivers were present for a sporting event. And that was just the start of it. Inside, a long line queuing up to volunteers to confirm who you are --- and then an even longer line snaking up to the voting machines.

In the state of Maryland at this Montgomery County precinct, this midterm election seemed more like a vote in a presidential contest. You got a sense standing in that big line as you slowly moved forward that people were energized by the issues. There were murmurs about the war and the economy. There weren't many smiles on faces. Voters seemed very determined.

Will this be the template for the day as America votes? Or is this simply the mood at one tiny polling place in one suburban area that borders the nation capital? We'll soon find out.

From NBC's Lisa Daniels
Pittsburgh -- We're running out to meet Sen. Rick Santorum (R) at his campaign headquarters. He'll be joining volunteers in phone-banking and then will be available for some questions. We'll be chatting with the Senator and you can be sure, I'll pass on what he tells me...

Is Santorum still in this race? The polls show his Democratic challenger Bob Casey with a substantial double-digit lead. But Santorum told a group of voters yesterday that he believes those polls do not reflect a "silent vote" -- Pennsylvania residents who will be voting for him who have not been counted by pollsters. As one of his campaign aides told us yesterday, no one can "close" a race like Santorum -- "he is the ultimate closer."

As for Casey's campaign, aides say the polls give them reason to be optimistic. One senior aide says, "Just take a look at the number of people attending Casey's rallies compared to Santorum's." But they also admit, voter turnout is key today.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
At last. 

The Bushes have voted in Texas and are en route to the White House.  The Republican National Committee is trying to cast doubt on the exit polls.  The campaign committees are at war over robo-calls and the FBI is checking out suspicious phone calls in the Virginia Senate race.  House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told her caucus on a conference call yesterday, per a House Democratic source, "If we win -- that's not a certainty -- if we win, our first presentation is very important...  We will show we are unified, respectful of people's views, have a willingness to work with the Republicans and the President."  Waiting on the birth of her sixth grandchild, Pelosi may scrap her schedule at any moment.

Now that the day is here, and with nonpartisan analysts and many Republican strategists seeing Democrats retaking control of the House and within striking distance of retaking the Senate, it's worth pointing out how markedly different today's political landscape looks from two years ago.

At the beginning of the 2006 cycle, Democrats were hopeful about gaining seats in the House but never envisioned the plethora of pick-up possibilities they see today.  As for the Senate, they were more concerned about playing defense in red states like North Dakota, West Virginia, and Florida (yes, those seats actually are on the ballot today) than they were focused on playing offense in red states like Montana and Virginia. 

So how did we get here?  For one thing, the national political environment turned upside down for the White House and the GOP, due in large part to their own actions and policies.  After winning re-election with 51% of the popular vote, Bush decided to spend his self-proclaimed "political capital," and much of 2005, trying to pass private accounts for Social Security.  He lost that fight.  Then came Hurricane Katrina and the government's widely criticized response.  This year, Bush made comprehensive immigration reform his big domestic priority, and the result so far has been a divided GOP and a partially funded border fence.

White House spokesman Tony Snow told reporters yesterday that regardless of tonight's outcome, "the President plans for a very active final two years of his presidency."  But beyond "winning the war on terror," the ventures Snow mentioned were fairly bipartisan ones: "continuing to build economic strength," extending No Child Left Behind, and devising new policy on energy, "which is a shared interest."

Throughout it all, of course, has been Iraq.  Two years ago, Bush and Republicans campaigned and won on their advantage over Democrats in public opinion when it comes to fighting the war against terror.  Today, the conflict that Bush and Republicans have called central to that effort has helped Democrats nationalize the election in their favor, sending independent voters in their direction and frustrating the Administration by eclipsing positive developments in the economy.

In January 2005, Bush's approval rating in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll was 50%.  Today, it's 39%.  Right after the 2004 election, Bush had his famous press conference in which he declared his intention to spend his political capital.  As of this morning, he has nothing public scheduled for tomorrow.

Things also changed at the micro level for the GOP.  The Jack Abramoff scandal put at least two GOP seats in play (Tom DeLay's and Bob Ney's), and maybe two more (John Doolittle's and Richard Pombo's).  The Mark Foley scandal endangered Foley's own seat and possibly another (Tom Reynolds'), in addition to casting the House Republican leadership in a poor light.  Other scandals put two more seats (Curt Weldon's and Don Sherwood's) at risk.  And Sens. George Allen and Conrad Burns misstepped their way into tough races they could well lose.  That's eight House seats and two Senate seats that might otherwise not have been in play. 

Tonight we'll see if those seats could have made the difference for the GOP, or if the wave heading this way is perhaps bigger than that.  As we've said before, almost all Democrats need to do to win this election is not be Republicans.  And of course, not screw up.

Here's your election day cheat-sheet of poll closings, key races, and voting equipment.

Bookmark us and stay with us all day and night as we feature reporting and color from NBC and MSNBC personnel covering key races around the country:

And get ready for the 2008 campaign.  Candidates who have spent weeks or months stumping for those on the ballot in 2006 will absorb the election results and start campaigning for themselves tomorrow (in some cases, after pow-wows with their advisors...).

And perhaps you won't have to wait long, says the Wall Street Journal, which covers expectations that the data will leak long before the networks' "quarantine" lifts at 5:00 pm ET. 

"Turnout should increase from 39.7% in 2002 and may exceed the most recent midterm high of 42.1% in 1982, according to Curtis Gans, director of American University's Center for the Study of the American Electorate.  Gans does not expect this year's turnout to top the all-time benchmark of 47% in 1970," per USA Today. 

"Federal poll watchers will be in 22 states today, safeguarding against fraud or discrimination in election districts marked by tight races, large numbers of minority voters and faulty ballot machines...  Poll watchers will be in several major cities - including Boston, Chicago, Denver, New Orleans, San Francisco and New York City - where minority voters have claimed they were denied access to the ballot box." 

"For political spectators, the bad news is this: Razor-edge contests can spark legal challenges and recounts that can take days to sort out," says the Wall Street Journal.  "The good news: Many of the most important races are in the Eastern and Central time zones.  If an angry tide is poised to swamp Republicans, it could be apparent before most political junkies call it a night." 

The AP echoes: "Most of the heavily contested, down-to-the-wire races are east of the Mississippi River, in states with relatively early poll closing times.  If a Democratic rout is going to happen, it will be clear from the first votes…  Showdown contests in Virginia, Rhode Island and New Jersey should be harbingers of trends in the Senate.  House races in Indiana, Kentucky and Florida will provide election-watchers initial clues as to which party will control that chamber." 

US Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay Khalilzad tells the Financial Times in an interview "that the outcome of the election would have no impact on the war strategy of George W. Bush's administration...  'The president has told them [the government of Iraq] not to pay attention to that,' said Mr Khalilzad.  'The president will be the commander in chief and the architect of US foreign policy regardless of the outcome.'" 

The Washington Post profiles Bush the decider on the brink of a crucial and probably painful election: "Now the voters are the deciders, and it's a verdict Bush can no longer influence...  Bush insists he's not worried.  But at least one person who saw him in private a few days ago interpreted his body language to mean that he did not think Tuesday will be a great day for him." 

The Washington Times reports that Bush's stops on his 10-state tour were "attended by a total of more than 75,000 Republicans."  http

The New York Times, noting that this will be Bush and Karl Rove's last election together, speculates about what will happen if Republicans lose control of the House.  "Indeed, what happens after Tuesday is something of a sore subject with several of Mr. Bush's advisers.  They refuse to discuss the possibility of life with a Democratic speaker…  And whenever the subject of the president's last two years come up, the aides make sure everybody knows that Mr. Bush intends to go out with a bang, not a whimper." 

The Times also considers what might happen if Democrats don't pick up the seats they're expected to.  "Some Democrats worry that those forecasts, accurate or not, may be setting the stage for a demoralizing election night,... sapping the party's spirit and energy heading into" 2008.  And if they don't gain control of the House?  NBC political analyst Charlie Cook said, "'I think you'd see a Jim Jones situation - it would be a mass suicide.'" 

If Democrats win more than 15 seats in the House, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will be poised to break through the "marble ceiling" of Congress.  But if she doesn't, the San Francisco Chronicle says, "Pelosi could find her leadership of the party in jeopardy." 

Western Democrats are expected to make strong gains today, but as the Boston Globe points out, these victories may cause some friction within the party.  "With their libertarian bent, Western Democrats do not view the party's potential gains in Congress as an opportunity to enact a liberal wish list.  On certain issues -- such as gun control and some environmental programs -- they have a very different view than do members of the party's Eastern base…  And while Democrats appear to be poised to expand their numbers in the Northeast, Westerners believe that they represent the party's future," writes the Boston Globe. 

The Chicago Tribune looks at the impact that women candidates, especially Democrats, could make tonight.  "Of the 140 women running for House seats, 98 are Democrats, with at least 18 Democratic challengers vying for upsets in some of the most competitive districts in the nation.  In the Senate, two Democrats, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Claire McCaskill of Missouri, could boost the total number of women senators from an all-time high of 14 to a record 16 if they are successful." 

The Wall Street Journal looks at what illegal immigration has become the issue that wasn't.  "By attacking illegal immigration, Republicans could look tough on border security and please their conservative constituents and many independents.  In the process, they could force votes in Congress... that would divide the Democrats and their Hispanic allies, and, ideally, trap some Democratic lawmakers into votes that could be turned into 30-second attack ads...  It hasn't exactly turned out that way." 

The Los Angeles Times notes how tonight's results will be the starting gun for 2008.  "The midterm results will go a long way toward shaping the political landscape...  A Democratic takeover of the Senate - which seems a longer shot than control of the House - could elevate several contestants who 'would have a different type of voice' as a member of the majority, said John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster from Alabama...  On the Republican side, David Carney, a GOP strategist in New Hampshire, said losing the House or Senate could result in a quicker resolution of the Republican nomination fight, so the party can channel its energies into regaining control of Capitol Hill." 

And the Boston Globe's Canellos points out that Sen. John "Kerry has to hope that the Democrats get a big enough victory to wash away any recriminations" over his "botched" joke.  "But if the election returns fail to meet the party's skyhigh expectations, Kerry would be among the biggest goats." 

There's a lot to keep track of today. So, we've created a chart to include the latest poll closing time in each state, what kind of voting equpment they'll be using today and which key races to keep an eye out for.

Crawford, TX -- The First Couple voted at the Crawford Fire Station, in Precinct 80 for McClennan County, Texas. The Bushes are among 1,847 registered voters who will cast their ballots electronically. Election officials here expect 65% turnout, and say the voting system does provide a paper trail for votes. "Government is only as good as the willingness of all people to participate," Bush said. "No matter what your affiliation... do your duty."

From MSNBC's David Shuster
Richmond, VA -- Jean Jensen, Secretary of the Virginia State Board of Elections, confirms that the FBI is now looking into possible voter intimidation in the US Senate race between Republican incumbent George Allen and Democrat Jim Webb. Jensen says state officials alerted the Justice Department yesterday to several complaints of suspicious phone calls to voters that attempted to misdirect or confuse them about election day. She adds she has now been contacted by FBI agents. The FBI in Richmond refuses to comment.

In a written statement issued by the Webb campaign, state Democratic party counsel Jay Myerson says he believes that Republicans are behind an orchestrated effort to suppress votes for Webb. Republican officials, including the executive director of the Virginia Republican party, say the GOP and the Allen campaign are focused on mobilizing voters and have not discouraged anyone from voting.

From NBC's Gena Fitzgerald
If you use Stevie Wonder's song as a way to judge popularity in this election week, I am truly beloved by both Republicans and Democrats in Virginia. I am beloved morning, noon, and night. It doesn't seem to matter if they get the real me or the answering machine -- all I do is say hello and they do the rest of the work.

It's the "robo-call," those automated telephone calls used by telemarketers and seemingly perfected by the two parties for the upcoming election.

Both parties in the Virginia Senate race apparently have my home number on speed dial. From about Friday evening at about 7:30 pm until Saturday evening at 10:00 pm, we counted just over two dozen calls. We simply gave up on Sunday. I've had Newt Gingrich and Jim Webb call. I foolishly thought that by signing up for the Federal Trade Commissions "Do Not Call" list, it would save me from robo-calls. Apparently not.

Why do they do this? Don't they know most people already hate telemarketers with a passion? I'm starting to actually miss the telemarketers; you at least get the chance to interrupt the live person to say, "Excuse me, and please take me off your call list," and then they hang up on you. But you get the chance to engage, to feel that you've won just one small battle.

There is no such satisfaction with a robo-call. They talk, you listen, you hang up, they call again. And again. And again. My hope is that when they go home at the end of the day, their own voicemail is filled with robo-call messages. Robo-calls encourage me to vote for one thing only: no more robocalls.

And I mean it from the bottom of my heart.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Chuck Schumer and Rahm Emanuel, the respective chairs of the Democratic Senate and House campaign committees, held press conferences today (Schumer's on camera; Emanuel's by phone) guaranteeing a change of course in Iraq -- if Democrats take control of Congress. "Should we get into office, there will be a change of course in Iraq," Schumer declared. "We have to make 2007 a year of transition." (Of course, that differed from Howard Dean's assessment a week ago that Democrats "don't have the ability" to force Bush to change the course there, although he did say that they could put pressure to enact timetables and benchmarks.)

Asked how Democrats would be able to change the course, Emanuel pointed to the committees that would be under Democratic control and the oversight that they would conduct. He specifically mentioned a look into where some $12 billion in money for reconstruction has gone. Schumer also said that the polls suggesting that Republicans are closing in on the Democrats were not reflected in his private polling. "It may be in conservative districts," he offered.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Aides say that President Bush will add a few new phrases to his stump speech on the economy today, criticizing Democrats' alleged "doom and gloom" view of what the White House sees as a strong economy.  Bush will make three stops today in Florida, Arkansas and Texas. 

Advisors say the White House was told yesterday morning that Florida gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist would not be appearing appear with the President, First Lady and Gov. Jeb Bush today in Pensacola. When asked about the Crist snub, Karl Rove said to the traveling press pool, "Let's see how many people show up in Palm Beach on 24 hours notice versus 8,000 or 9,000 people in Pensacola."

From NBC's Mark Murray
As we already wrote this morning, Florida GOP gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist is skipping this afternoon's rally in Pensacola, FL with the president and First Lady. Yet Crist's campaign just put out word that he will join Sen. John McCain (R) at an event in Jacksonville around the same time as the Pensacola rally.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
No party has ever retaken the House without winning the Senate, but that may change tomorrow.  A tightening of a handful of key Senate races, per the latest round of MSNBC/McClatchy polls conducted by Mason-Dixon, suggests that Democrats are more likely to gain five seats or fewer than the six seats needed to retake control.  In addition to winning Pennsylvania and Ohio, Democrats would need to run the table on all the tight races -- GOP-held Missouri, Montana, Rhode Island and Virginia, plus their own seat in Maryland -- to net six.  Or, they'd need to win four of those five plus pick up Tennessee, which may be more out of reach, though Democrats say the latest polls don't accurately reflect high early voting by African-Americans.

In the event of a five-seat Democratic gain and a 50-50 Senate, Republicans would continue to hold a nominal majority by virtue of Vice President Cheney's ability to break a tie vote.  Speculation will begin immediately about whether Republicans will agree to share power with Democrats per the agreement struck by leaders Trent Lott (R) and Tom Daschle (D) after the 2000 election, the last time the Senate was 50-50.  Under that agreement, which was unprecedented at the time, both parties had an equal number of seats on the key committees that draft bills and handle presidential nominees.  Other provisions were implemented to avoid gridlock. 

It's not clear whether Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid and expected GOP Leader Mitch McConnell will reach a similar agreement.  Democrats would have some leverage because the Senate can't get down to business (committee meetings, etc.) until it's "organized," and 60 votes are required for that vote to organize.  So Democrats have the means to keep the Senate from getting to work.

Should Democrats retake the House but not the Senate, it would likely be because voters feel particularly angry with the House GOP leadership for their handling of the Mark Foley scandal, and also for former Majority Leader Tom DeLay's prolonged fall from grace and the series of other scandals that have plagued individual members (Cunningham, Ney, Weldon, Sherwood, etc.).  House Republicans failed to pass any significant lobbying or ethics reform this year to inoculate themselves.  The further they got from the Jack Abramoff scandal, which came to a head last December and January, the more confident they became that voters wouldn't hold them accountable.

But this will be a protest election above all -- more a rejection of Bush and his Iraq policy than an endorsement of Democrats and their agenda.  As we've said before, Democrats made a calculated decision not to offer an agenda beyond their publicly popular "Six for '06" list, and for that reason, voters have come to see the party as what our NBC/Wall Street Journal pollsters call a "marginally acceptable alternative" to the GOP majority.

A switch in control of the House but not the Senate would defy history, not only because it's never happened before, but because the party holding the White House has lost an average of six Senate seats, as well as nearly 36 House seats, in "six-year itch" elections since 1938.  However, it would conform to a much more recent trend of the President's party seeing mitigated losses because of more sophisticated redistricting (in the case of House races), fewer retirements, and political miscalculations (like the GOP's impeachment of President Clinton).  In 1998, Democrats picked up five House seats, and in 2002, Republicans gained nine House and two Senate seats. 

To the extent that Democrats will have a "mandate" should they win control of one or both houses of Congress, it will be to do something to force Bush's hand on Iraq policy, as NBC's Mike Viqueira points out.  To a lesser extent, depending on the election results, we might see a rejection of Bush's Social Security plan.  But there probably won't be any Democratic "political capital" to be squandered.  Bush and Speaker Nancy Pelosi would essentially be faced with the same choices over the next year, before the 2008 race overwhelms everything.  They could start those battles now, pick fights to fire up the base, and "win by losing" legislatively.  Or, they could find some areas of common ground and "triangulate" to pass a few high-profile items.

Logic points to the latter, Viq says.  What would Bush and his legacy have to gain through politics as usual?  Why not try to avoid spending the next two years ceding the limelight to presidential hopefuls in the Senate while his agenda languishes?  Democrats might read another message in tomorrow's results -- that voters are sick of partisan gridlock. 

So what issues constitute the middle ground between the President and House Democrats?  One is immigration, as First Read has noted before.  As Viq notes, the votes certainly will be there to pass Bush's goal of a path to citizenship and a guest-worker program.  Another might be the extension of some of the tax cuts passed in Bush's first term that are set to expire after 2010, namely the $1,000-per-child tax credit and "marriage penalty" relief.

The Democratic caucus is likely to remain 70% liberal, and the base that they represent will be calling for payback for 12 years of oppression at the hands of the GOP.  But don't expect prominent Democrats like Henry Waxman, who's in line to head the premier investigative committee in the House, to overreach.  Every Democrat Viq spoke with on this topic over the last few days mentioned the name "Dan Burton" by way of illustrating what they would like to avoid: turning the committee room into a circus.  Having said that, investigations into Halliburton's Iraq contracts are an obvious and likely place for them to start.

Got calendar? 

Saddam Hussein has been sentenced to death by hanging.  President Bush called it an "important achievement."  How much of a factor will it be in the election?  The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, taken the weekend before, shows 37% of registered voters saying that removing Hussein from power was worth the financial and human cost; 54% said it wasn't worth it.

Vice President Cheney told ABC that the Administration is going "full steam ahead" with its Iraq policy no matter what happens tomorrow.  Republican Senate campaign committee chair Elizabeth Dole charged on NBC's Meet the Press yesterday that Democrats "appear to be content with losing, because to pull out from this war is losing."

This morning brings the already publicized editorial in Gannett-published military newspapers calling for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's resignation.  The White House is on the record calling the editorial "a shabby piece of work," as spokesman Tony Snow put it.  Bush told the AP last week that he plans to keep Rumsfeld in his Cabinet.  Next month, Rumsfeld will become the longest-serving Defense Secretary.

Democratic House campaign committee spokesman Bill Burton tells First Read that Democrats plan to close "with Iraq in as big a way as possible today."  The chairs of the party's House and Senate campaign committees will issue a joint statement this morning, followed by a press conference call and a press conference.  Burton says, "We're both going to be pushing on the same vital elements: the new [Elizabeth] Dole comments that Democrats are content to lose in Iraq, the Military Times endorsement of Rumsfeld's departure, the generals who all say Rumsfeld should go, the Republicans who all say that Iraq is moving in the wrong direction and the steadfast adherence of Bush, Cheney and Boehner to push on 'full steam ahead' in the same failed direction.  It's the clearest contrast we make with Republicans and we're making our final case to the American people today."

The Chicago Tribune: "Leaders of both parties expressed doubt that the death sentence for [Hussein]... would play any role in Tuesday's midterm congressional elections.  Yet Bush, hailing the verdict as 'a milestone' in Iraq's development of a free government, praised it during campaign appearances in Nebraska and Kansas."  More: "[A]ll the public attention drawn by the verdict in Baghdad underscores the potentially decisive role that the war in Iraq is playing in elections in which control of Congress is at stake." 

The Sunday Washington Post noted that over the last three years, Bush and his Administration have gone from rejecting the idea that the Iraq war is about oil to saying the war is about oil. 

After keeping disparate campaign schedules for weeks, with Laura Bush helping out some of the party's most vulnerable candidates and her husband more limited in where he can go, the Bushes team up for stops in Pensacola, FL; Bentonville, AR; and Dallas, after which they head to the ranch -- and the polling place tomorrow.  But GOP gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist is skipping the Pensacola rally, and the latest reflection of Bush's curtailed popularity is that the top GOP candidate he'll be appearing with on-stage will be Senate nominee Katherine Harris. 

About 10,000 supporters will greet Bush today in Pensacola, says the AP, which also reports that Gov. Jeb Bush (R) will appear in Crist's place.

Bob Novak wonders if Bush's final campaign swing across the country has served only to nationalize this election, which experts believe won't help the GOP.  "The hard truth apparent to realists in both parties is that, quite apart from what Bush did or did not do, the election has been nationalized around two standards that could not be more unfavorable to the GOP: an unpopular war and an unpopular president." 

The Sunday Los Angeles Times said that "the Bush campaign tour, 2006 edition, looks a little different than those of years past.  Though supporters come by the thousands, the venues are sometimes smaller than in past years.  Recently Bush headlined a rally at the Silver Creek High School gym in Sellersburg, Ind., instead of at the nearby convention center in Louisville, Ky., that he visited in 2002.  And although a visit from the president can dominate local news coverage, it competes with TV ads and other messages from an energized Democratic Party, as well as with other headlines." 

For example, the Sunday Washington Post noted how the Colorado press was full of coverage about Ted Haggard's downfall and the Bush and Cheney visits to Colorado on Friday and Saturday got little mention. 

NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that Cheney will spend his election day on his first hunting trip since the accidental shooting of Harry Whittington last February.  Cheney will be in Pierre, SD for what advisors call his "annual trip."  Aides stress that the trip does not in any way indicate concern on Cheney's part about the outcome of the election, O'Donnell says.  The only name provided in terms of who will be along for the hunting party is Mary Cheney.  The Vice President and Lynne Cheney have already cast their ballots, using Wyoming's early-voting option and doing so in person. 

Nonpartisan analysts like NBC's Charlie Cook advise that as an election draws nearer, the generic ballot test can mean less and can be all over the map because the dynamics of intensifying individual races take over.  The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken last weekend showed Democrats with a 15-point lead over Republicans on the generic ballot test among registered voters.  Several of the final pre-election nonpartisan national polls show narrower margins:
-- Pew shows 47% of likely voters preferring the Democratic candidate for Congress and 43% preferring the Republican candidate, with Bush's job approval rating at 41% among registered voters.
-- Time magazine shows 55% of likely voters preferring the Democratic candidate for Congress and 40% preferring the Republican candidate, and Bush's job approval rating at 37% among registered voters.
-- The Washington Post/ABC show 51% of likely voters preferring the Democratic candidate and 45% preferring the Republican, and Bush's job approval rating at 40%.
-- Newsweek shows 54% of likely voters preferring the Democrat and 32% preferring the Republican, and Bush's job approval rating at 35%.

A new series of Gallup polls for USA Today also shows a handful of Senate races as too close to call, suggesting that Democrats could come up short in their push to net six seats.  

And the paper also lines up its recent Gallup poll and its Gallup data from October 1994 and finds striking similarities. 

CNBC's Patti Domm advises that investors will focus on the midterms this week despite the lack of interest among traders in the weeks leading up to the election.  Tom Gallagher of economic research firm ISI says he sees about a 25% chance that Republicans will hang onto both chambers of Congress, which would cause a short-term relief rally.  If Democrats win both, there could be a short term sell-off, he says.  He also stresses there are no signs that electoral uncertainty has been holding back the stock market, as it did in the 2004 presidential elections.

Bloomberg says divided government could be good for the deficit.  "Divided government would mean neither Democrats nor Republicans would be able on their own to push through budget-busting programs, either spending increases or tax cuts.  When Republicans took control of the House of Representatives in 1994, during the presidency of Democrat Bill Clinton, it set the stage for four years of budget surpluses." 

The Wall Street Journal says that beyond security issues, "Republicans are trying to reach out to their supporters and independents on tax issues."  But [w]ith Mr. Bush holding a veto pen for the next two years, many voters see little immediate threat.  Moreover, Democratic candidates who challenge the president's tax cuts typically target the highest brackets."  Also: "A new, upbeat jobs report released last week buoyed Republican spirits.  But the party can't escape the cloud of pessimism that hangs over voters in the regions hit by the loss of high-paying manufacturing jobs."