Special to First Read from Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report
What does a political analyst do on Election Day? Apart from trying to imbibe enough caffeine to stay up all night, we field two kinds of frantic calls and e-mail from campaigns, consultants, reporters and friends. The first kind of call comes in the form of questions: Is voter turnout higher than normal or about the same? What do the exit polls say in (insert the race you care most about here)?
In reality, we know very little. How high or low turnout is can't be determined until after the polls close and ballots are counted and compared to turnout in past elections. And, this Election Day we knew even less thanks to a well-considered decision to withold exit poll information until 5:00 pm.
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The second kind of call or email seeks to impart some piece of information that may or may not be relevant and may or may not even be true. On one level these missives and calls are enormously important to those imparting them. At the same time, they are often amusing. Consider some of the early e-mail:
At 7:27 am, the Michigan Republican Party sends out a release about a precinct in Ann Arbor that didn't open on time.
At 8:04 am, we learn it is raining in Detroit.
At 10:25 am, Republican Tom Kean, Jr.'s campaign sends out a release detailing vandalism to their headquarters. It seems that the main entrance to their office was chained shut and keys were broken off in the locks of the other entrances.
At 11:10 am, GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee's campaign informs us that "Keep Chafee" yard signs are disappearing around the state, yet his Democratic opponent's signs are untouched.
Then the phone calls begin.
Turnout in Northern Virginia is hitting historic levels.
Someone spilled coffee on a voting machine in Minnesota, but the machine is still working.
Exit polls say the Republican in a House race is losing badly. (But wait, there aren't any exit polls in House races).
There are things that happen on Election Day that are important: malfunctioning machines and voter suppression tactics and these situations need to be taken very seriously. But, for most people on the sidelines, there is little else to do on Election Day except engage in gossip and trade rumors.