From A.B. Stoddard, Associate Editor of The Hill newspaper
On Wednesday Republicans, wet and weary from the wave that knocked them from power in the House, can look back just 12 years to remember that victory on election night is the easy part. This power shift, of immense consequence, was nonetheless created by Republicans.

Democrats don't have a revolution, a Contract with America, just the gift of GOP scandals and the GOP's governing failures. Can they answer the Iraq problem and assuage the anger of so many Americans who voted Republicans out of power because of the war? Not so fast.

Bush remains in power for two more years and within the Democratic party there is nothing close to consensus behind any of the options under discussion -- more troops, immediate withdrawal, redeployment to surrounding countries or the decentralization plan that would divide power among the Sunni, Shiite and Kurds.

In domestic policy, on shifting the tax burden, balancing the budget, raising the minimum wage, or reforming the Medicare law, will Democrats easily shift to governing after being in the opposition business for so long? The party ran the table with conservative candidates like Brad Ellsworth in Indiana and Heath Shuler in North Carolina -- who Republicans themselves had previously attempted to recruit.

These pro-gun, pro-life Democrats who oppose gay marriage aren't likely to mix well with liberal chairmen who have been walking the wilderness since 1994, like chairmen like Rep. John Conyers (D-MI) who will run the Judiciary committee, Charlie Rangel (D-NY) who will run the Ways and Means committee or John Dingell (D-Mi.) who will run the Commerce committee. But rest assured that the leadership run by Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) -- the first woman speaker of the House of Representatives -- will dance with the ones that brung them.

There will be days that will be easy and other days, with the angry activist left breathing down their back, when it will be wrenching. Why? Because the job isn't finished for the Come Back Party -- the campaign can't stop until they win back the White House. The window of time between January, when Pelosi becomes speaker and Democrats actually take power, and the beginning of the '08 race is so small its hard to see through.

Once it closes the Democrats have to start acting, well, sort of like Republicans if they want to keep their eyes on the prize of the presidency. The presumed frontrunner, Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), a pro-war Democrat who has remodeled herself as a centrist, summed it up well after crushing her Republican opponent by 40 percentage points Tuesday night.

Clinton said she voted for change, except for herself.

From MSNBC analyst Pat Buchanan
"Well, the American people have spoken, and in his own good time, Franklin will tell us what they have said."

So one wag quipped after the Democratic landslide over the Hoover Republicans in 1932. And FDR supplied the answer: A New Deal.

What are the American people saying tonight, and what are they not saying?

First, the election may be seen as a referendum on President Bush, his party, and the war into which he led the United States. And George Bush and the Republicans have lost that referendum.  This was not a vote to abandon Iraq, but it was a vote against the war, a vote to begin an American withdrawal.

This seems undeniable. But this is no mandate for the Democratic Party or its ruling philosophy of liberalism. Democrats spent much of the campaign denying they were a "cut-and-run" party, denying they would raise taxes, and keeping Nancy Pelosi in protective custody.  Many Democrats taking seats away from the GOP are what we used to call, and some still do, "Blue Dogs."

While Ms. Pelosi has a measure of power, she had a larger component of responsibility, now, and with it goes accountability.  She leads the popular house of government in an unpopular war, and her house is decidedly a house divided, with the Pelosi-Murtha position representing but a third of the body at most. 

Rather than seek out some grand compromise, Bush's best option now may be to follow the Reagan example, work with his own party on the Hill, and split off the Blue Dogs from the Democratic majority.  On extending the Bush tax cuts, without raising taxes on capital gains or upper brackets, he would be well-advised to put the proposition to those Democratic freshman who came in on a pledge not to raise taxes.
 
On the war, the Democratic Party in the House, if it takes an antiwar and take-the-next-exit policy, would be assaulted for undercutting the troops. Recall 1974-75, when the new Democratic Congress cut off aid to the South Vietnamese, and Saigon fell.  It took decades for Democrats to live down the impression that they were politicians who march America, or cheer America, into wars, and go over the Hill when the going gets tough. 

As for 2008, loss of the House benefits the GOP.  Had they remained in control of all branches of government going into 2008, with two wars going badly, the likelihood is that the nation would have thrown them all out.
In short, Democrats have had a good night, a big night, something between a victory and a rout of the Republicans.  But carping is now no longer enough for Congressional Democrats.  They need to perform.  And it's been a long time since truly liberal Democrats have had to do that.

The country voted against the GOP.  It did not vote for liberal Democrats.  Yet, it is going to get a popular House whose visible faces are Nancy Pelosi, John Conyers, Alcee Hastings, Charlie Rangel, Henry Waxman, and Barney Frank.

The people may end up wailing, in T. S. Eliot's line, "This is not what I meant at all."

Special to First Read from Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report
And then there are the governors races. Things have gone as expected here as well. Remarkably, not one vulnerable Democratic-held seats was lost. Govs. Jennifer Granholm in Michigan, Ted Kulongoski in Oregon, and Jim Doyle in Wisconsin, all rated as Toss Ups by the Cook Political Report, won re-election. Democrats also held their open seat In Iowa. Two marginally vulnerable Democratic governors, Rod Blagojevich in Illinois and John Baldacci in Maine have also won.

As expected, Republicans lost their open seats in Arkansas, Colorado, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio. Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich was defeated and while Rhode Island Gov. Don Carcieri has been declared the winner, the margin is so close that we might not have heard the last word on this race. That leaves four Republican-held seats that haven't been called yet. The race in Minnesota (Gov. Tim Pawlenty) is too close to call and it's too early to call races in the open seats in Alaska, Idaho, and Nevada.

The bottom line is that Democrats have scored a net gain of five seats and the potential exists for them to pick up as many as nine seats. My guess is that they will end up with seven or eight, assuming Rhode Island is not contested.

Lynn Swann, the Hall of Fame receiver whose football career was one long string of successes, was beaten in his bid to become Pennsylvania's governor.

Former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler did better, beating an incumbent for a congressional seat in North Carolina.

Democrats reclaimed governors' offices from the Northeast to the Rockies to the South on Tuesday, putting them on track to take a majority of the governorships for the first time in 12 years.

Special to First Read from Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report
As the clock strikes midnight, where does the Senate stand now? Well, it's tied. Each party has 48 seats. There are four seats yet to be decided: Missouri, Montana, Tennessee and Virginia.

Let's put aside Montana for a minute -- there isn't enough of the vote in to call this race. It's the remaining three that are most interesting. Several weeks ago, Republican strategists began talking about Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia as their firewall; three seats that could protect their majority as long as they can hold two of the three. Right now, all three are too close to call and it appears that we may not know the outcome any time soon.

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger will be back. The bodybuilder-turned-action-star-turned-politician won a second and final term, easily turning aside a challenge from Democrat Phil Angelides.

NBC News has issued a series of projections for gubernatorial and senatorial races as well as state initiatives: Democrat Chet Culver is the projected winner of Iowa's governorship, Democrat Bill Ritter is the projected winner of Colorado's governorship, and Republican Linda Lingle is projected to be re-elected as Hawaii's governor.

Nevada Republican John Ensign and Hawaii Democrat Daniel Akaka are projected to win re-election to the U.S. Senate.

Here's a rundown of the initiative projections:

• Montana: Yes on Initiative 151 (raising minimum wage)
• Wisconsin: Yes on Referendum 1 (defining marriage)
• Michigan: Yes on Proposition 2 (affirmative action)
• Colorado: No on Amendment 44 (marijuana)
• Arizona: Yes on Proposition 202  (raising minimum wage)
• Arizona: No on Proposition 200 (voter reward)
• Tennessee: Yes on Amendment 1 (defining marriage)
• Ohio: No on Amendment 3 ("Learn & Earn")
• Ohio: Yes on Amendment 2 (raising minimum wage)
• Virginia: Yes on Amendment 1 (defining marriage)
• South Carolina: Yes on Amendment 1 (defining marriage)

From NBC's Mark Murray
One of the big stories after the midterms results are in, of course, will be all of the jockeying for the 2008 presidential race. And touting the Democrats' three congressional pickups in his state, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh (D) -- who is seriously considering a presidential bid -- just issued a statement on the Democrats' takeover of the House that points to the message he might be making in the next couple of years.

"The lesson of this election is clear – we won by turning the Red states of the Heartland Blue," Bayh said. "Indiana, which has voted for the Republicans in 16 of the last 17 presidential elections, sent three new Democrats to Congress. This is not an accident. Out here in Indiana, we have developed a formula for winning under the most difficult of circumstances. We are fiscally responsible, tough on national security, share the values of middle class families, and value progress over partisanship. If the Democratic Party follows the lead of Indiana and the Heartland and is willing to reach out." 

This is shaping up as the Year of  the Woman.

Nancy Pelosi is poised to become the first female Speaker of the House and a record number of women will be in the U.S. Senate.

Every female senator up for re-election has been projected as a winner.

With incumbent senators Hillary Clinton, Debbie Stabenow, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Maria Cantwell, Dianne Feinstein, and Olympia Snowe projected winners and new senator-elect Amy Klobuchar projected as the winner in Minnesota, there will be a history-making number of female senators on Capitol Hill. At least 15 in the new Congress. It is possible that number goes higher if Claire McCaskill wins in Missouri.

From the Washington Post's Gene Robinson
The results so far suggest that race is a more complicated issue in this country than it used to be, and more complicated than many people believe. Almost overlooked in the focus on Congress was the election of Deval Patrick as governor of Massachusetts -- only the second African-American to be elected as a governor in the nation's history. To me, that's a stunning result. Yes, Massachusetts is a reliably liberal state. But it also has a history of clannish white ethnicity -- as any black person who wandered into the wrong neighborhood of South Boston, say, ten or fifteen years ago could have told you. Patrick's election is genuine progress.

In other races, black Republican candidates were rejected by black voters -- Michael Steele in Maryland, Ken Blackwell in Ohio. You could spin this any of a number of ways. My spin is that black voters, not surprisingly, are as sophisticated as other voters in deciding where their best interests lie. The Republican Party could someday win a substantial chunk of the African American vote, but it will take positions and policies that genuinely benefit black Americans. Token black candidates at the top of the ticket don't cut it. 

And then there's the case of Harold Ford Jr. We don't quite know the result of the Tennessee race, but it looks as if Ford will lose. On the one hand, no one expected him to even make it a close race. There is genuine agreement among the political cognoscenti of all stripes that he ran one of the smartest campaigns of the season. On the other hand, he got slimed with an attack ad that had clear racist overtones, and that might have made the difference. So if Ford loses, maybe the lesson we should draw is best expressed in French: Plus ca change ...

From the National Journal's Chuck Todd
A few early observations:

Campaigns matter. The incumbents who have gone down are ones who two months ago didn't know they had a race on their hands (including Reps. Anne Northup of Kentucky and Charlie Bass of New Hampshire). Meanwhile, so far, it appears that the House GOP incumbents who were prepared are surviving this Democratic wave at a greater clip than some analysts anticipated.

Also, while it's still early and we're counting mostly votes east of the Mississippi, there seems to be a trend that GOP turnout is steady - not down, as some anticipated. The increased turnout of Democrats and independents will make the difference for many successful House and Senate candidates, but the non-disastrous GOP turnout should save the party some House seats. Case in point: Kentucky 04, where GOP incumbent Geoff Davis survived in a very conservative district.

NBC News projects that Arizona Republican Jon Kyl will be re-elected to his U.S. Senate seat.

NBC News projects that California's Dianne Feinstein and Washington state's Maria Cantwell, both Democrats, will be re-elected to their U.S. Senate seats.

From Newsweek's Jonathan Alter
As of right now, the two big questions are finally coming into focus:

First, The Democrats have taken control of the House. Enough results are in to indicate that the Democrats will pick up 20 to 30 seats. The two "canaries in the mineshaft" I mentioned on MSNBC at 7:30, Charlie Bass of New Hampshire and Chris Chocola of Indiana, are both going down to defeat by substantial margins. Nancy Johnson of Connecticut, another seen as an indicator of trends, has lost. Jim Gerlach of Pennsylvania is another example.

Second, control of the Senate seems likely to remain in GOP hands, though just barely. With Claire McCaskill in Missouri and Harold Ford in Tennessee trailing, only skewed returns in one or both of those states can keep the Democrats in the game. Should that happen, control of the Senate would come down to Virginia. To put the fate of the Senate into "overtime," the gap between George Allen and Jim Webb would have to close to half a percentage point. Right now, the gap is more like 1.5 percent, with Allen leading. So the odds favor continued GOP control.

Finally, Hillary Clinton is running close to even with gubernatorial candidate Eliot Spitzer. Spitzer now has 71 percent; Clinton 70 percent. This is a surprise, and will bolster her chances in 2008.

NBC News projects that, when all the votes are counted, the Democratic Party will be in control of the House of Representatives. That would make California's Nancy Pelosi the first female speaker of the House.

NBC News projects that Wisconsin Gov. Jim Doyle and Maine Gov. John Baldacci, both Democrats, will be re-elected. Vermont's Republican governor, Jim Douglas, is also projected to win re-election. Democrat Mike Beebe is the projected winner in Arkansas' gubernatorial race. In the Wisconsin gubernatorial race, embryonic stem cell research figured as a campaign issue. Doyle has been a strong supporter of such research.

We're in the thick of the poll closings and the post-election speeches right now, so it's a good time to review one of the basic questions of the Election Night business, as posed by Hank from Annapolis, Md.:

"How are the projections done? It looks like a lot of them don't match the current leader from the polls. How can you accurately project from 7 percent reported results?"

Actually, projecting the outcome of an election can sound a lot like doing a poll, or predicting the weather. The results may not always be sure-fire (remember the 2000 election?), but we hope that every election cycle brings improvements in the process. Here are a few basics about Election Night terms, gleaned from NBC News' policies:

NBC has two types of winners by the end of election night:

• Projected winner: NBC has made a projection that a candidate will win the race, but the vote count is not yet complete. This call is made only after all the polls are scheduled to have closed in a state. Projections are based on an analysis of exit polls, precinct models from scientifically selected samples, county vote models using Associated Press data, and the actual raw vote.
• Apparent winner: A candidate who has won the race when all the votes have been counted but the margin is small enough that the result may change by the official count or a recount.

We're not talking about the "official" winner here. After all, it may take weeks for states to certify the official winner of an election.

During the evening, NBC may report that a race is "too early to call" - meaning there's just not enough data to make an analysis. Or you may hear that it's "too close to call." As you might guess, that means the data are available, but there's not enough of a margin for NBC to feel confident about projecting a winner.

So where do the exit polls and the sample precinct results come from? The source is the National Election Pool, a pool of The Associated Press and the five major TV news networks that was organized for the 2004 election.

For an outside opinion about the projection game, check out this posting from The Caucus at NYTimes.com.

NBC News projects that Alabama Gov. Bob Riley, a Republican, will be re-elected.

From NBC's Chris Donovan
If the Democrats take control of the House and Nancy Pelosi becomes Speaker, we all know that she would be the first female Speaker of the House, but what might also be interesting to point out is that she would become the highest-ranking woman ever to serve in the federal government -- that is if you use the presidential line of succession as the measure.

Madeleine Albright made history in 1997 when she became secretary of state and thus the highest-ranking woman (as the New York Times and Washington Post both pointed out the day after Clinton named her) -- as that position is fourth in line of presidential succession (even though she could not be president because she wasn't born here). And Condoleezza Rice can now claim that same distinction. But if Pelosi becomes Speaker she will be second in line of succession -- below only the vice president. She already is the highest-ranking official in congressional history after being elected Democratic leader of the House.

Obviously this analysis excludes the judicial branch, and it's important to remember the two women who have reached the U.S. Supreme Court: Sandra Day O'Connor in 1981 and Ruth Bader Ginsburg in 1993.

NBC News projects that Utah Republican Orrin Hatch will be re-elected to the U.S. Senate. The Senate races in Montana and Nevada are judged too early to call, while the races in Virginia and Tennessee are too close to call.

From NBC's Ron Allen
A huge cheer went up when NBC projected Bob Menendez the winner in New Jersey. Then came a big sigh of relief. This race was a lot closer than the Democrats ever thought it would be. Another headline not making a lot of news is that he is the first Hispanic-American elected to statewide office in New Jersey ... joining a handful of Hispanic candidates elected statewide across the country. It will be interesting to see how much support he received in the Hispanic community. And whether his election suggests "Latino Power" has been a factor or if it was all just a good old-fashioned Democratic Party victory in a deep blue state.

Menendez certainly has an inspiring story: A Cuban immigrant who came to this country with next to nothing. He worked his way up through Union City schools, then to a local college and then into politics. He's an example of how the demographics of the nation are changing. You know the projections. The Spanish-speaking community is growing exponentially.

It's also been a year when a record number of African-American candidates ran for statewide office. So far we know Deval Patrick will become governor of Massachusetts, the second black leader to ever become chief executive of a state. Here I must say it's amazing, and disturbing that at this point in time we're still only watching just a few minority politicians literally make history by winning elections. But such is life in American politics, as in so many other areas of life and work. I'll leave that there.

Michael Steele looks like a loser in Maryland's Senate race. Lynn Swan also seems to have lost his bid to parlay a star-studded football career into a governorship in Pennsylvania. Harold Ford is hanging tough in Tennessee's Senate race. Ken Blackwell looks to have come up short in Ohio.

It's also interesting that some of these men are Democrats and some Republicans, complicating and adding more texture to the African-American experience in politics. Many black leaders hope it all means that African-American voters will no longer be taken for granted by the Democratic Party which most black voters tend to favor.

A couple of weeks back, I was watching Barak Obama stump for Bob Menendez in Hoboken, N.J. What a sight. An African-American politician, a senator no less, who is a rising star in his party, and a potential presidential candidate? The country has come quite a way. But Obama remains alone. Perhaps that may yet change tonight. And if not then, perhaps in 2008.

And yes, there are a lot of people in this country who fervently believe all this matters dearly. People who think of their views as quite moderate on such issues.

Meanwhile, here in New Jersey, the crowd is celebrating the Menendez victory with loud rock music. I suspect later this evening we may be hearing more of a Latin beat.

NBC News projects that Republican Charlie Crist will be elected Florida governor, taking the place of fellow Republican (and presidential brother) Jeb Bush.

NBC News projects that South Dakota Gov. Mike Rounds, a Republican, will be re-elected.

NBC News projects that Texas Gov. Rick Perry, a Republican, will be re-elected.