From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
"Go, Tom, go!" Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack was greeted by supporters chanting his name in unison at Iowa Wesleyan College as he took the stage to officially announce his candidacy for president this morning. Vilsack, kicking off a five-state tour in his hometown of Mt. Pleasant today, was joined by his wife and children.

With President Bush in the Middle East today, Vilsack called for immediate action to push Iraqis to provide their own security. "We must act and we must act now. We must take our troops out of harm's way and say to the Iraqis, it is your responsibility to protect your families and your communities," Vilsack said. 

But Vilsack also focused heavily on domestic issues. He promised to continue the wave of change since the midterm elections and emphasized the importance of focusing on tomorrow and a stronger future. He drew upon his experience as mayor and two-term governor and highlighted his state's status as the national leader in renewable fuel and energy production. Vilsack's platform also includes a stronger heathcare system, more competitive education system, and energy security.

Vilsack, who lacks name recognition, acknowledged his underdog status. Speaking about his rough childhood, Vilsack said his experiences help him understand the problems people suffer today.  "[My family] grew accustomed to a declining standard of living. I know what it is like, I knew then and I know today, what it's like to be alone and to feel as if you do not belong."

An orphan, Vilsack was adopted by parents who split up for a period of time while his mother battled alcohol and prescription drug addictions. He says these experiences taught him valuable lessons: "The courage to create change can overcome the largest of obstacles, and that community can give you the confidence and the support to try and to succeed."

Tonight, Vilsack will be in Concord, New Hampshire at the Merrimack County Democrats Dinner as part of his five state "Courage to Create Change" tour.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is signing up high-caliber advisors and staff.  Gov. George Pataki (R) was just in Iraq.  Sen. Barack Obama (D) is about to do Leno, address an evangelical conference on AIDS, and publicly take another AIDS test.  But one presidential candidate is stepping forth this morning to do what no other has done: actually articulate his vision for the country and his case for why he should be elected. 

Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) needs the attention he hopes to gain by being the first to dive into the 2008 pool.  Up until now, his biggest national role has been as chair of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, a role that comes with a certain level of cachet, thanks to predecessor Bill Clinton, but is more likely to yield him policy advisors and white papers than campaign contributions and votes.

Now retiring after two terms as governor, Vilsack will formally announce his bid in his adopted hometown of Mount Pleasant this morning.  He'll then embark on a tour that will take him to Concord, NH; his original hometown of Pittsburgh; Des Moines, where his campaign HQ is located; Las Vegas; and Columbia, SC.  The stop in Pittsburgh reflects how Vilsack plans to highlight his life story as an orphan with an adoptive mother who was an alcoholic, a story that, in the past, he's been somewhat modest about telling.  The zig-zagging across the country reflects the new reality of a Democratic presidential nominating calendar that includes a second-in-the-nation caucus in Nevada. 

In addition to the hurdles that most candidates face, such as raising tens of millions of dollars just to be considered competitive and finding ways to capture voters' imaginations, Vilsack faces a particular burden: He has to do especially well in his home state of Iowa, while still arguing (for the sake of his state as well as his own prospects) that the caucuses will be a real race.  "What's a win" for him? asks John Lapp, a former top operative for both Vilsack and Rep. Dick Gephardt, who faced a somewhat similar challenge as an early favorite in Iowa.  "How do you define a win?"  A summer 2006 Des Moines Register poll showed Vilsack placing an unimpressive fourth.  Then, beyond managing expectations for his Iowa showing, Vilsack must prove that he can do well in the subsequent early states.

On the other hand, as Lapp points out, "there's always room for a governor."  Previous Democratic governors who won the presidency seemingly came out of nowhere at this same point in the cycle.  Jimmy Carter and Clinton both were governors who ran as Washington insurgents and had outside-the-Beltway campaign teams.  Beyond Vilsack, the only other governors or former governors in the nascent Democratic field are Bill Richardson of New Mexico and Evan Bayh of Indiana, both of whom can be tied to Washington.

As a gifted public speaker who rarely uses a text, another special challenge for Vilsack that may be in evidence during this announcement tour and in the months to follow will be the challenge of delivering the same speech over and over again.  Lapp compares Vilsack to Robert Redford's character in "The Candidate," whose instinct is to speak off the cuff and who becomes increasingly frustrated with the repetitiveness of that staple of campaign life, the stump speech.  At the same time, Lapp says, he sees "a hungering for an authentic candidate" like Vilsack.  Vilsack's image might benefit by comparison to that of the more cautious Sen. Hillary Clinton (D).

Another big speech coming today is outgoing Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman's address to the GOP governors gathered in Miami, which will be Mehlman's first big speech since the party took its beating in the midterms.  The theme of the speech, based on an advance text, is that Democrats didn't win the election so much as Republicans lost it, in part because they dropped the mantle of reform and because of Iraq.  Per the text, Mehlman will say that "we cannot ignore the reality of a wartime election," which historically has produced losses for the incumbent president's party.  He'll add that while he believes that this is "an ideological struggle in which we must prevail," it does not "change the fact that the Iraq war does make today's politics difficult."  That's quite a shift from Bush advisors' firm belief since 2001 that national security issues are their key to election victories. 

Mehlman also will say point-blank that "there is room for improvement in our ground operations."  But, he will emphasize, Republicans must recommit "ourselves to be the party of reform."  "Power does corrupt," he will say.  "If there are Republicans for whom influence or power or money have become more important than serving the public and the nation, then let me make it perfectly clear: we don't want you."

President Bush announced at a joint press conference with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki earlier this morning that the United States will stay in Iraq for as long as necessary: "this business about a graceful exit simply just has no realism to it at all."  His expressions of strong support for Maliki ("the right guy for Iraq") came after a leaked three-week-old memo by his national security advisor raised doubts about Maliki's abilities, and Maliki canceled a scheduled dinner with Bush last night. 

"Senior Bush aides offered at least four explanations for the cancellation - finally dispatching a more junior official to tell reporters late Wednesday that Maliki and Jordan's King Abdullah II had decided mutually that a three-way conversation was not necessary," says the Los Angeles Times. 

The Iraq Study Group plans to present its findings to Bush, Congress, and the public on December 6, one day after Defense Secretary nominee Robert Gates has his confirmation hearing.  Incoming Senate Foreign Relations chair and presidential candidate Joe Biden is expected to then schedule hearings about the group's recommendations. 

But with his "no graceful exit" comment, Bush has already rejected one of their suggestions.  The New York Times, in another front-page scoop, says the group's final report will recommend a gradual pullback of 15 American brigades (a brigade typically consists of 3,000 to 5,000 troops) -- but will stop short of setting a firm timetable for withdrawal.  "It is a compromise between distinct paths that the group has debated since March, avoiding a specific timetable, which has been opposed by Mr. Bush, but making it clear that the American troop commitment should not be open-ended." 

The Washington Post reports that the "findings dovetail with recommendations being considered by the military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, who are conducting their own review...  That group is leaning toward an option that involves a brief surge of troops in Iraq, followed by a partial drawdown and a shift from combat operations to training and advising, according to sources familiar with the process." 

The Washington Times says the Joint Chiefs "oppose pulling out U.S. troops now, and are also against a specific withdrawal timetable." 

USA Today says of all three reviews of the Iraq situation currently being done, including one by the White House, "All the options carry downsides and dangers...  The war has become a Rubik's Cube: Move to fix one side of the puzzle and another side is upended." 

Observing that none of the various reviews are expected to produce bold suggestions, the Washington Post's Milbank cheekily calls the Iraq Study Group the "the Men's Vogue Study Group" after NBC's Andrea Mitchell reported that members of the group had posed for a magazine photo shoot and the Post rooted out which one.  Milbank also notes that Senate Democrats, for their part, called yesterday for "(drum roll, please)" a special envoy to Iraq. 

"The civil war in Iraq is likely to deteriorate significantly over the next few months regardless of which combination of options the Bush administration chooses to exercise, according to a report released by" the Center for Strategic and International Studies yesterday.  The report "dismisses as 'dishonest' the Bush administration's claims to have readied more than 100 Iraqi military units for combat, pointing out that the true number is probably less than a third of the Pentagon's estimate."  It also "takes strong issue with the notion that Washington can simply put pressure on [Maliki] to push harder for conciliation between Iraq's clashing sectarian groups."

Outgoing Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is giving up on his presidential aspirations, at least for 2008, he announced yesterday.  Frist sounded ready to quit Washington altogether as he sticks to his self-imposed two-term limit in the Senate (in an e-mail to supporters, he calls himself a "citizen legislator").  His record as leader is mixed and his second term, particularly since he began eyeing the presidency, has been marked by clumsy moves such as his "diagnosis" via videotape of Terri Schiavo and his flip-flop in favor of expanded federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.  He also took a hit from an ongoing SEC investigation into allegations of insider trading after he sold his shares in hospital chain HCA, which his father founded.  To the extent that he had gained any ground among social conservatives, his exit from the field leaves that much to be claimed by another candidate.

As for the candidate angling to become the mainstream conservative alternative to frontrunning Sen. John McCain (R), Romney has signed up former top Bush economic advisors Greg Mankiw and Glenn Hubbard.  "They have respect," one Washington-based economic analyst tells First Read.  "Remember that Mankiw was Mr. Outsourcing, so he's a little toxic politically.  But they have respect among economists (what a vital interest group they are!) and to a somewhat lesser extent on Wall Street (just because they aren't identified with markets, not because of their association with Bush)."  This analyst adds, "I do think Wall Street is important as a source of funds and credibility, so Romney is signaling that he's a serious player, especially since he's not identified with economic (any?) issues."

Romney aides might dispute that point, arguing that he turned Massachusetts' budget deficit into a surplus, or that his new health care coverage plan was done without tax increases. 

The Boston Herald reports that Romney "likely will forgo an exploratory committee entirely, taking a different approach than fellow GOP presidential front-runners Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani by declaring his candidacy outright sometime after Christmas." 

Like other potential candidates lately, Vilsack will say this morning that he's taking some cues from the midterm election results: "We sent a clear message that we wanted our country led in a new and better direction.  But our job is not done.  We have more work to do."  The draft of his speech emphasizes vision over specifics, focusing on the importance of community and opportunity.  And he'll confront head-on the fact that he's an underdog.

"Today's speech, which is expected to last little more than 10 minutes, will be a metaphor for his campaign, aides said. That is: Speak plainly and say what you believe." 

"Antiabortion groups are assailing one of the nation's most influential evangelicals, the Rev. Rick Warren, for inviting" Obama to address his conference on HIV/AIDS at his Southern California megachurch this weekend, the Washington Post reports.  "Warren, author of the bestseller 'The Purpose Driven Life,' responded yesterday by asserting that he and his wife, Kay, are 'staunchly pro-life' and 'completely disagree' with Obama's position in favor of abortion rights," but he said he won't disinvite Obama, one of 60 scheduled speakers. 

The AP reports that Obama will take a HIV test during his appearance and will encourage others to do the same.  (Obama took an AIDS test when he visited Kenya earlier this year.) 

Obama also met yesterday with rapper Ludacris, who "was in town to launch the YouthAIDS 'Kick Me' campaign to raise HIV/AIDS awareness during a stop at Northwestern University in Evanston," the Chicago Tribune says. 

Former Sen. John Edwards delivers the keynote address at the Los Angeles Alliance for a New Economy's City of Justice Awards Dinner tonight, in which he'll talk about "the many ways we can move more Americans out of poverty and into the middle class," per the release.  Before his remarks, Edwards will join a group of labor leaders, including SEIU President Andy Stern, for an announcement about the living wage campaign for Century Boulevard hotel workers.

"Business groups, encouraged by the narrowness of the Democrats' majority in the U.S. Senate for the next two years, are laying plans to block or limit efforts to increase taxes on oil-company profits and curb prescription-drug prices," says Bloomberg. 

McClatchy delves into the Border Patrol background of Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D), the seemingly likely new House Intelligence Committee chair, noting that "[h]e isn't talking now, but when McClatchy News Service asked him earlier this month whether he wanted the chairmanship, he said, 'Of course.  That would be a tremendous challenge that I would look forward to.'"  The article also notes that the "ability of the even-tempered Reyes to work with Republicans would help, as would his solid Democratic credentials." 

The New York Times profiles new Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who had been planning on being the new majority leader.  "[But] he is instead the incoming leader of the new Senate minority, albeit one who, with 49 votes in his pocket, will have the ability to block Democratic initiatives more or less at will.  'There will be nothing here they can do without some degree of cooperation from a very robust 49-vote minority,' he said in an interview this week." 

The AP: "While they still can, House Republicans are looking at scheduling a vote next week on a fetal pain abortion bill in a parting shot at incoming majority Democrats and a last bid for loyalty from the GOP's base of social conservatives." 

In NORTH CAROLINA, the AP writes, Democrat Larry Kissell conceded to incumbent Rep. Robin Hayes (R) "after the initial phase of a hand recount showed the result was not likely to change." 

So by our count, Democrats now have a 232-202 advantage in the House, with only one uncalled, undecided race that could possibly change hands: the run off in TEXAS between Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) and challenger Ciro Rodriguez (D).  Speaking of which, the state of Texas is asking the Justice Department to approve the December 12 date for the run off -- which is being opposed by Latino groups because "Dec. 12 is the Feast of the Virgin of Guadalupe, the patron saint of Mexico and Latin America."  

From NBC's Mark Murray
Barack Obama seems to be everywhere -- he was in Iowa for Sen. Tom Harkin's steak fry; he campaigned with virtually every Democratic candidate last fall; and as we mentioned earlier, he's heading to New Hampshire next month. And now this: NBC's "Tonight Show with Jay Leno" has announced that Obama will be on the program this Friday.

It's unlikely that Obama will reveal his 2008 intentions to Leno. But also remember that it was on the "Tonight Show" where Arnold Schwarzenegger first announced in 2003 that he was running for California governor.

From NBC's Mark Murray
NBC News confirms, per a source close to the senator, that Sen. Bill Frist will announce today that he will not run for president.

The Hotline reports that Frist will hold a press conference in his home state of Tennessee.

Frist, who is also a doctor, released a statement saying that after serving in the Senate for 12 years, he will return home to live a "private life" so that he can go back to his "professional roots as a healer."

"In the Bible, God tells us for everything there is a season, and for me, for now, this season of being an elected official has come to a close.  I do not intend to run for president in 2008," Frist writes.

He adds that he and his wife Karyn will take a "sabbatical from public life" and that in the interim he hopes to travel on "medical mission trips as a doctor around the world to serve those in poverty, in famine, and in civil war."

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
President Bush heads to Amman to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki as a leaked November 8 memo written by National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley has Hadley questioning whether Maliki is up to the job, the Iraq Study Group tries to finish up its work, and the Pentagon prepares a $127 billion-plus supplemental spending request for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the broader war on terror.

NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports that per a member of the Iraq Study Group, they are "pretty far along" in agreeing on draft proposals.  They had planned to complete their work yesterday, Mitchell reports, but failed to reach a consensus on key recommendations, so they're meeting again this morning.  An official close to the deliberations says there are new ideas in the draft report, but some members of the panel are becoming increasingly discouraged about the odds that the White House and Congress will accept them.  The group's target for releasing a report is next week, and the tentative plan is for co-chairs Jim Baker and Lee Hamilton to go to the White House and the Hill to brief principals on the morning of the release, then unveil their findings at a news conference.  Earlier this week, the group paused to pose for a class photo taken for a magazine (not Vanity Fair) and shot by celebrity photographer Annie Leibovitz.

On Capitol Hill, incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi has avoided a potential security flap, as well as an ethical problem, by passing over Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) for chair of the Intelligence Committee.  Hastings is the panel's most senior member behind outgoing chair Jane Harman, but as a former federal judge who was impeached, his baggage would have caused Democrats a headache had he been installed at the helm of this particularly sensitive committee.

There's an unsettled feeling all through the House corridors of the Capitol this week, reports NBC's Mike Viqueira.  If 126 or so Republican members have never before served in the minority, consider how many Republican staffers are now grappling with that concept -- or the idea of losing their jobs.  Dejected leadership aides wander in and out of the offices they will soon vacate to make way for victorious Democrats.  They're wearing jeans and their shirt collars are open.  Some are carrying personal effects from their work spaces.  Others clutch résumés.  The younger ones joke about how their offices have become a "job fair;" the older ones lament the tightening GOP job market in Washington.

Pelosi took a tour of her soon-to-be offices the other day, offices currently occupied by outgoing Speaker Dennis Hastert.  They're decorated in all red -- one thing that presumably will have to change, Viq observes.  Portraits of Hastert's fellow Illinois Republican Abraham Lincoln, which currently hang in the conference room, are also likely to go.

Pelosi's man in charge of the transition is Rep. Mike Capuano of Massachusetts.  His portfolio is soup to nuts, from coordinating the assemblage of the new House rules, including the new ethics guidelines, to divvying up the vast expanse of House-side real estate that has come under Democrats' control as the majority party.  Capuano tells Viq that over the past few days, he has inspected rooms around the House chamber that, as a member of the minority for his entire four terms, he had no idea even existed.

He does have one bit of news: Unlike back in 1995 when Republicans claimed the majority, he says that Pelosi wants to give departing GOP committee staffers a severance package.  One reporter asked why, after getting it in the neck for 12 years, Democrats would want to take care of Republicans.  "Because that makes us better people," Capuano said.

Another group of unsettled Republicans will gather in Miami today as the party's governors meet to dissect the midterm election results, which upended the gubernatorial breakdown from 28 Republicans and 22 Democrats to 22-28.  Outgoing Republican Governors Association chair and 2008 presidential candidate Mitt Romney will preside.  Apparently Romney's recent efforts to distance himself from his adopted home state of Massachusetts don't extend to his campaign HQ, which the Boston Globe reports will likely be based in the North End.

And among other 2008 news, the community of Mt. Pleasant, IA is hosting a potluck supper tonight for the media horde descending upon the town in advance of Gov. Tom Vilsack's announcement tomorrow that he's running for president.  And DraftObama.org has launched, just as the Senator's office has announced that he will set foot in New Hampshire for the first time in his life on December 10.

The New York Times was the first to report on the Hadley memo.  

USA Today, without mentioning the memo, nevertheless previews the Amman summit by reporting that "analysts say there is growing evidence that al-Maliki is not up to the formidable task of bringing stability to his country." 

The Financial Times, noting a "rapidly hardening consensus" that Iraq is in a civil war, also points out that leaks from the Iraq Study Group and comments by some members "indicate its findings are likely to be sharply at odds with Mr Bush's insistence that the US can still achieve 'victory'...  The report is expected to include an option for the 'phased redeployment' of the 145,000-strong US forces in Iraq and direct talks with Iraq's neighbours to stabilise the country." 

The Washington Post looks at the stakes for the White House in the Iraq conflict being viewed as a civil war: "acknowledging that it has become [one], they fear, could collapse the already weak support for the mission among Americans.  But the risk for the White House, analysts said, is that once again it will appear out of touch with reality over there and with public perception here at home." 

Bloomberg says that Bush, in Amman, "will put [Maliki] on the spot to propose ways to accelerate the transfer of security responsibility to the Iraqis." 

The New York Times reports that in his first detailed comments since being nominated as Defense Secretary, Robert Gates "criticized the Pentagon as failing to prepare adequately for securing Iraq after the invasion in 2003.  Asked in a questionnaire from the Senate Armed Services Committee what he would have done differently in Iraq if he had been defense secretary in the last six years, Mr. Gates responded: 'War planning should be done with the understanding that postmajor-combat phase of operations can be crucial.'"  

The Washington Post also notices that lawmakers of both parties and Americans seem to be increasingly blaming the Iraqis, rather than Republicans and/or the Bush Administration, for the situation on the ground in Iraq.  "Several other experts of various political stripes said this tendency to dump on Baghdad feels like a preamble to withdrawal." 

The Los Angeles Times follows up on USA Today's report last week about the Pentagon's expected supplemental spending request, which the Los Angeles Times pegs at $127 billion to $150 billion and says will extend beyond the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan "to other military operations connected to the Bush administration's war on terrorism.  The spending plans may push the Defense Department into conflict with Democrats as they take control of Capitol Hill in January," because Democratic lawmakers have said they won't cut funding for US troops.  "Even within the Pentagon, the spending request is generating controversy." 

Bush's assertion yesterday "that he wants more countries in a program that allows foreigners to stay in the USA without visas" is prompting "criticism that the move could open the door to terrorists," USA Today reports.  "Bush said his administration aims to add more countries to the program, created to facilitate tourism and business travel 15 years before the 9/11 attacks increased fears of terrorism.  He pledged to ensure that 'those that want to continue to kill Americans aren't able to exploit the system.'" 

The Hill reports that "union representatives, liberal leaders, and aides to House Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) met yesterday to begin work on a broad lobbying push to promote Pelosi's 100-legislative-hour agenda with a campaign expected to mimic the one that helped defeat [Bush's] proposed reforms to Social Security...  Party strategists are speculating that they will have a brief window of legislative productivity before a curtain of partisanship falls across town... for the 2008 presidential election." 

Pelosi's "decision to bypass Hastings could damage Pelosi's strained relations with the Congressional Black Caucus," speculates the Boston Globe.  "The caucus clashed with Pelosi earlier this year over her efforts to press Representative William J. Jefferson of Louisiana to resign his primary committee post when investigators found $90,000 in his freezer." 

Incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid tells the AP in an interview that after he deals with the spending bills he's inheriting from the departing GOP majority, he plans to tackle ethics reform, "a higher minimum wage and more money for stem cell research." 

The liberal Center for American Progress, which is headed by former Clinton White House chief of staff John Podesta and which some Washington insiders view as a policy shop-in-waiting for a certain presidential candidate, outlined its suggestions yesterday on which issues the Democrat-run Congress should focus on after the first 100 legislative hours.  The group feels that because there's a need to meet expectations set by midterm elections, Democratic lawmakers need to move quickly to address key issues.  Their proposals include:
-- a phased withdrawal of US troops from Iraq over 18 months;
-- more assistance for Afghanistan on reconstruction efforts;
-- the release of NIE reports from before May 2007 and of unclassified reports to Congress and citizens;
-- ending violence in Sudan;
-- and, on the domestic side, improved teacher compensation to attract highly qualified teachers where there are shortages, an expanded child tax credit, a reduced marriage penalty under the earned income tax credit, and the establishment of a benchmark to use renewable energy sources for 25% of nation's fuel consumption

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D) tells the New York Daily News editorial board that Democrats are planning to reach out to 20 moderate Republicans, who he suspects are tired of allying themselves with the Administration.  Schumer also noted that the midterm results are not a mandate for Democrats.  "'Anyone who thinks we've closed the deal is crazy.  We haven't and we have a lot of work to do.'" 

The Washington Post anticipates that Sen. Jim Webb (D) is going to have a tough time making nice with Bush because of their disagreement over Iraq. 

O Canada!  Tonight, DNC chair Howard Dean addresses Canada's Liberal Party at their convention in Montreal.  That Canadian visit brings back memories of Dean's numerous appearances -- from 1996 to 2002 -- on the Canadian public affairs TV show "The Editors."  It was during one of those appearances that Dean criticized Iowa's caucus system, saying that it was "dominated by the special interests" and that participating in one was a waste of time.

The Boston Globe reports that Romney will base his 2008 effort in Boston after all, rather than in Michigan, saying his team "is laying plans to run his presidential campaign from a three-story waterfront building at the edge of Boston's North End." 

Two former chairs of Bush's Council of Economic Advisors and a former member of Vice President Cheney's domestic policy team have signed up with him. 

As the Republican governors gather in Miami, some GOP operatives are pointing fingers at the RGA's decision-making during the midterms, arguing that the committee didn't allocate its resources as effectively as it could have. 

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich reiterated his sentiments that the Iraq war is a "failure" at another campaign event in New Hampshire yesterday.  Per the Boston Globe, Gingrich "said the Bush administration needs to plan a 'third stage' in Iraq, following the military takeover stage and the recent democracy-building stage.  But he says a third stage can come about only if officials admit they must change course." 

The Washington Post's Ignatius reports that the outcome of the midterm elections have prompted GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel to say he'll decide whether to "make a formal decision in the next two months on whether to run" for president. 

"Now that Sen. Hillary Clinton is focusing on 2008 and weighing a presidential run, her enemies are focusing on her," the New York Daily News writes.  A group dedicated to the onslaught of Clinton -- "Stop Her Now" -- is gaining momentum with an $80,000 donation from a Dallas businessman.  The group's website is set to launch on Monday and will include animated cartoons. 

MSNBC.com's Tom Curry offers readers an interactive feature which allows them to compare how they themselves would have voted on 20 key issues to how Obama and Clinton actually voted in 2005 and 2006.  The issues range from confirming Supreme Court nominee Sam Alito to denying illegal immigrants legal status.  No surprise: Obama and Clinton voted alike most of the time. 

Given this, Curry asked Democratic activists in Iowa and New Hampshire, would an Obama-Clinton contest largely be determined by image and charisma?  The essential question, Iowa Democrat Ann Fitzgibbons replied to Curry, is "who can win?  Who can bring in more votes?  Who is less divisive?  I think Clinton is too divisive.  It comes down to: who can bring the party together and bring in independents?" 

New Hampshire activist Mary Rauh said that although he'd been in the Senate only a short time and had scant opportunity to demonstrate leadership ability, "It seems to me Obama's ability to communicate says potentially there's a leader there."  She said it is Obama's attractiveness and eloquence that causes some people concern.  "That's what some people worry a bit about -- the glamour rather than the substance."  But she's eagerly looking forward to his visit on December 10, when Obama will make his first-ever trip to New Hampshire.  The state party is looking to celebrate its big wins on November 6.  "He's never, ever, ever put his foot in the state," Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs tells First Read. "It was a wonderful invitation that we decided to accept."

Former Sen. John Edwards (D) has a book-signing in Des Moines.

In FLORIDA, Sarasota County elections officials said they found no malfunctions in their voting machines, which has been the source of controversy in the race between Republican Vern Buchanan and Democrat Christine Jennings.  Despite the tests, "there were still no clues about why a high number of voters -- more than 18,000 -- did not have votes recorded in the Buchanan-Jennings race on Election Day...  But the tests were already being questioned by the Democratic contender in the race, as well as fellow Democrats in the U.S. House -- which looks more and more likely to get involved."

In NORTH CAROLINA, the recount in the race between incumbent Rep. Robin Hayes (R) and challenger Larry Kissell (D) begins today and will last until Thursday; Kissell trails by 329 votes.  "A full hand recount will be ordered if the results in the sampled precincts show that that there is potential for the race's outcome to be reversed." 

The AP writes that Victoria Wulsin (D) yesterday conceded to OHIO Rep. Jean Schmidt (R), but said she might run again.  "Also Tuesday, Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, as expected, ordered counties to recount votes in the closely divided 15th District.  Rep. Deborah Pryce, a seven-term Republican, won the Nov. 7 contest against Democratic challenger Mary Jo Kilroy by 1,055 votes - a small enough margin to trigger an automatic recount.  The three counties in the district must do a recount no later than Dec. 8, Blackwell said." 

The AP also reports that former Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) is being endorsed by the man who knocked him out of Congress -- Rep. Henry Cuellar (D) -- in Rodriguez's December runoff in TEXAS against Rep. Henry Bonilla (R). 

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A Democratic House leadership aide says incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi has told Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) that he will not become chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Sen. Barack Obama (D) will be making his first-ever trip to New Hampshire on December 10, when he'll appear at a New Hampshire Democratic Party "election celebration" in Manchester. The party is looking to celebrate its big wins in the state on November 6. 

"He's never, ever, ever put his foot in the state," said Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs.  "It was a wonderful invitation that we decided to accept."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Rep. Alcee Hastings (D) is expected to pay a call on incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi today in her (soon-to-be-former) Capitol office. Hastings is expected to lay out his case for why he should become the next chair of the House Intelligence Committee. His appointment is in some doubt because he was impeached as a judge before getting elected to Congress. The time of the meeting is TBD; Pelosi was asked about the matter at her photo-op with the Italian deputy prime minister, and she declined to talk about it.

Pelosi did have a few comments about Iraq, however, saying "I feel sad" that President Bush is "resorting" to his rhetoric of blaming al Queda for the level of violence there. "If the President persists on the course that he is on... then that will make it more difficult" to work in a bipartisan way, she said.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby. 
At a press conference in Estonia earlier this morning, NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports, President Bush: blamed al Qaeda for fomenting sectarian violence; declined to engage on NBC's use of the term "civil war" to describe the violence; outlined questions he will ask Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki in Jordan later this week; said Iraq has been in this current phase of violence for about nine months (contradicting National Security Advisor Steve Hadley's calling it a "new phase"); said Iraq is sovereign and thus can have its own meetings with Iran and Syria; and again said that Iran must stop nuclear enrichment.

Domestic politicking isn't stopping at the water's edge.  Preceding Bush today at an NGO-run conference coinciding with the NATO summit will be presidential contender Rudy Giuliani (R), currently the most popular politician in America, per a new poll.  Also, Karl Rove is making an unusual appearance on this trip.  White House spokesman Tony Snow said Rove is along because "there's still plenty of politics going on back in Washington."  He said Rove has been e-mailing and calling Republicans trying to hash out an agenda for the lame duck session, and also monitoring a House runoff in Texas.

Back in Washington, the media is filling the news vacuum by focusing on incoming Speaker Nancy Pelosi's next personnel decision: whether to promote impeached former judge and Rep. Alcee Hastings to Intelligence Committee chair, or pick a chair with less ethical baggage.  But if Pelosi chooses another member to serve as chair, the Hastings matter will be settled before the 110th Congress begins.  Less attention is being paid to a potential issue that could undercut Democrats' message on ethics reform during their first week in the majority: the possible return of Rep. William Jefferson (D).

After the feds found $90,000 in cash in Jefferson's freezer and two of his associates pleaded guilty to a kickback scheme, Republicans tried to use him to muddy the waters on ethics in the midterm elections.  Ultimately, the GOP paid a price for their proliferating ethical problems while Democrats as a party did not, but 70% of voters in Jefferson's district chose a candidate other than the incumbent in the open primary on election day.  Should Jefferson get re-elected, even if Democrats don't seat him on any committees, his presence -- literally, since he'd be voting on the ethics reform proposals Democrats plan to introduce during their first 100 hours in session -- could pose a problem for Pelosi and the party.

Per Louisiana law, because Jefferson did not win a majority of the vote in his primary, he will participate in a runoff with the second-place finisher on December 9, NBC's Doug Adams notes.  His opponent is former state Rep. Karen Carter, a fellow Democrat and also an African-American.  The district comprises New Orleans and its western suburbs.

Conventional wisdom holds that an incumbent who is forced into a runoff after getting just 30% of the vote is a dead duck.  But conventional wisdom doesn't always hold true in New Orleans politics, and Jefferson could well win re-election.  For starters, Adams notes, most New Orleans politicians are backing him, including Mayor Ray Nagin (another local politician who was written off for dead, only to stage a comeback in a runoff).  Last week, the candidate who finished third in the primary endorsed Jefferson.

Not everyone is supporting Jefferson, however.  State Democratic officials hand-picked Carter to challenge Jefferson and continue to back her.  A source of some controversy, a link to her campaign website is prominently posted on the Louisiana Democratic party website -- unaccompanied by any link to Jefferson's.  And, this being New Orleans, there is of course a back story, Adams says.  Carter appeared briefly in Spike Lee's documentary about Hurricane Katrina, in which she slammed Jefferson Parish police for blocking New Orleans storm victims from crossing the bridge into the suburbs.  Her criticism won her the enduring dislike of most of the parish's Establishment.

Earlier this year, Pelosi stripped Jefferson of his coveted Ways and Means committee seat.  But no one can force him out of Congress, even if he eventually gets indicted.  The Congressional Black Caucus continues to support him. 

Also, Adams points out, any indictment of Jefferson probably wouldn't happen until May 2007 at the earliest.  Last week, a federal judicial panel extended the deadline for briefs in his case until mid-April, with oral arguments planned after that -- thereby setting up national Democrats for a possible half-year of embarrassment.

The White House yesterday "conceded that Iraq has moved into a dangerous new phase of warfare requiring changes in strategy," and "U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan appealed for immediate steps to prevent the country from crumbling into all-out civil war," says the Washington Post.  "The White House again resisted assertions that Iraq is now in a civil war, but that stance is increasingly hard to defend."  The Post reports that Saudi Arabia "basically summoned Vice President Cheney for talks over the weekend," whereas the "visit was originally portrayed as U.S. outreach to its oil-rich Arab ally." 

Per McClatchy, some regional experts think that Iraq's "cascading civil war" is beyond Washington's control.  "If Iraq is to hold together and avoid an all-out bloodbath, they say, it will be because the country's warring factions step back from the brink and forge some sort of political compromise.  That seems like a pipe dream after a weekend of the worst violence for Iraqi civilians since the March 2003 U.S.-led invasion."

Several papers cover NBC's decision to characterize the Iraq conflict as a civil war, making it the first network to do so.  "NBC's announcement spotlights a shift in semantics that has quietly taken place on the airwaves and in newsprint as the violence has worsened along with the public's view of the situation in Iraq," the Los Angeles Times says.  "The White House continued to object to the description...  Political analysts said NBC's public embrace of the term further complicated the administration's efforts to maintain that the violence had not spun out of control." 

"Some media analysts compared it to CBS anchorman Walter Cronkite's declaration in 1968 that the United States was losing the Vietnam War -- a pronouncement now considered a turning point in public opinion -- and Ted Koppel's ABC updates on the Iranian hostage crisis of 1979 and 1980 that infuriated Jimmy Carter's White House." 

Britain, Poland and Italy all say they'll begin withdrawing troops from Iraq in 2007. 

The New York Times front-pages that, per a senior US intelligence official, Iranian-backed Hezbollah has been training Moktada al-Sadr's Shiite militia in Iraq.  "The interview occurred at a time of intense debate over whether the United States should enlist Iran's help in stabilizing Iraq…  The claim about Hezbollah's role in training Shiite militias could strengthen the hand of those in the Bush administration who oppose a major new diplomatic involvement with Iran." 

And the Times notes that the Justice Department inspector general has opened a full review of the Administration's domestic wiretapping program.  The paper says this review "will have a somewhat different scope" than the one rejected last year after Bush personally refused security clearances for investigators.  This one "will examine the controls in place at the Justice Department for the eavesdropping, the way information developed from it was used, and the department's 'compliance with legal requirements governing the program.'" 

It "is not expected to address whether the controversial program is an unconstitutional expansion of presidential power, as its critics and a judge have charged," the AP adds. 

The AP also reports that Defense Secretary nominee Robert Gates could be on the job before the end of the year.  "Eric Ruff, the Pentagon press secretary, said Gates will have his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee early next week, with a vote expected by the full Senate by Dec. 12 or 13...  There has been speculation that the Pentagon transition would be put off until the end of December in order to give Rumsfeld the distinction of being the longest-serving secretary of defense...  Ruff said, however, that the timing of Gates' takeover has nothing to do with the longevity record." 

In more personnel news, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is losing her "intellectual soul mate:" her counselor Philip Zelikow. 

"Bush will try to work out a deal on spending with the new Democratic majority on Capitol Hill, but will be prepared to veto bills that exceed his total budget or that slice away at defense needs," Bush budget director Rob Portman tells the Washington Times.  Portman also suggests that "a center-right coalition could emerge on issues such as spending and extending the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts." 

Bloomberg's Kevin Hassett predicts that Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's overtures to Democrats on fixing Social Security won't result in cooperation.  "What Paulson is about to learn is that it will be easy to get Democrats to the table on Social Security.  He need only let them write the legislation and agree to every term they dictate.  He can offer cosmetic face-saving measures that make the legislation look like a victory for the president.  But substantively, he will have to cave on everything." 

USA Today writes from the Texas border that the border fence "has come to reflect the disconnect between many landowners here and officials in Washington who see the project as a key part of the nation's strategy to slow illegal immigration.  Here, where the impact of illegal immigration is greatest, the fence is widely viewed as an economic and environmental threat...  The bill Bush signed does not include money to build the fence, and it's unclear how aggressively Congress will pursue the multibillion-dollar project once Democrats assume leadership of the House and Senate in January." 

"...[C]ongressional workers are getting ready" for a raft of hearings on big government contracts, particularly defense contracts, says the Washington Post.  "In September, the Project on Government Oversight, a watchdog group, began holding seminars for Hill workers of both parties on how to conduct investigations, including sessions on the anatomy of a government contract and skits in which oversight hearings were acted out." 

The Chicago Tribune says that Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) has called "for an official investigation into whether House Speaker Dennis Hastert broke the law by pushing for federal funding of a highway project near land he owned west of Chicago" -- which helped Hastert and two partners earn a profit of more than $3 million.  "An aide to Hastert declined to comment Monday...  But when the Tribune reported the story this summer, Hastert spokesman Ron Bonjean said the speaker simply made a well-timed real estate investment on the land, located between 3 and 5 miles from the highway route." 

The Houston Chronicle writes that, per exit polls taken by the William C. Velasquez Institute, Hispanic voters deserted the GOP on election day more because of dissatisfaction with the Iraq war and job creation than over immigration issues.  "'It was really the totality of issues that drove people to the polls,' said Michael Bustamante, spokesman for the Velasquez Institute and the Latino Policy Coalition." 

Per a new Quinnipiac survey, Giuliani is the most popular politician in America.  "The survey asked respondents to rate their feelings about the 20 leaders on a 'thermometer reading' scale of 0 to 100.  Mr. Giuliani finished with a 64.2 rating.  Trailing closely were Sens. Barack Obama, Illinois Democrat, and John McCain, Arizona Republican, who tallied 58.8 and 57.7.  Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was the top-ranking woman in the survey, finishing just behind Mr. McCain with a 56.1 rating...  Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, New York Democrat, finished ninth in the survey with a 49-point ranking" -- and Sen. John Kerry (D) was last.

The German Marshall Fund of the United States, which is co-hosting the NGO conference in Riga that Giuliani is addressing today, is making transcripts and video available on the web. 

NBC political analyst Charlie Cook, in his CongressDaily AM column, says that whether or not Giuliani runs is the biggest question on the Republican side -- along with whether or not he can win the nomination if he does in fact run.

Newt Gingrich, in New Hampshire yesterday to give a speech on the First Amendment, told reporters that the Iraq war has been a "failure," asking, "How does a defeat for America make us safer?"  Gingrich also "argued Republicans would have retained the Senate and just narrowly lost the House if President Bush had announced the departure of embattled Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld before, instead of after, the election."  And he said he'll decide next fall whether he will run for president. 

Outgoing Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) of Iowa has been busy filling the ranks for his 2008 presidential run, the Des Moines Register notes.  He has added Gary Hirshberg, an activist and donor from New Hampshire, and Lou Susman, a top fundraiser from Chicago, to his lineup.  "The support lends legitimacy to what Democratic insiders and Vilsack are calling a long-shot candidacy."  Vilsack will formally announce his candidacy for president this Thursday.

Some Wall Street analysts say that the Dow's 158.46-point drop yesterday, its worst in more than four months, "was long overdue given the Dow's uninterrupted run-up in recent weeks." 

CNBC's Patti Domm points out that Fed junkies not only get to hear from chair Ben Bernanke today on the nation's economic outlook, but also from former chair Alan Greenspan, who speaks at a separate New York luncheon.  Bernanke could be newsier, but certainly the markets will be listening to what both have to say.  Greenspan will take questions; Bernanke will not.

Now that Ohio GOP Reps. Deborah Pryce and Jean Schmidt have been declared the winners of their races (though Pryce faces an automatic recount), the breakdown in the House currently stands at 232-201.  The two undecided contests are in North Carolina, where GOP Rep. Robin Hayes is leading by 329 votes after a machine recount, but a manual recount begins on Wednesday, and in Texas, where GOP Rep. Henry Bonilla is competing in a runoff against former Democratic Rep. Ciro Rodriguez.  The other undecided race is the runoff in Louisiana between Jefferson and Carter, but the seat won't change hands since both are Democrats.

The Columbus Dispatch writes that Pryce's Democratic opponent, Mary Jo Kilroy, isn't conceding just yet.  "She said she's not sure a recount will change the outcome, but at least it will be a worthwhile double-check of new voting equipment that was used for the first time in a general election." 

And although the AP has declared Schmidt the victor in her race, opponent Victoria Wulsin (D) has refused to concede -- but the contest should be certified by today, the Cincinnati Enquirer says.