NBC's Mike Viqueira reports that per a source familiar with the proceedings, members of the investigative subcommittee looking into the Foley scandal are not expected in today, and that any witnesses appearing before staff will be very low-level.

House Majority Leader John Boehner emerged after an hour and half behind closed doors with the subcommittee to tell reporters that he stuck by his version of events in his testimony, Viq reports.  Translation: He testified that he told Speaker Dennis Hastert about Foley's inappropriate behavior last spring, and that Hastert responded that the situation had been "taken care of."  Hastert has said that he does not remember that conversation, Viq notes.  Boehner also asserted that the scandal "doesn't appear to be affecting any races" in the midterm elections.

A Catholic clergyman now living on a Mediterranean island has admitted to having a two-year relationship with Foley but continues to insist there was no sexual contact.  A Foley attorney says Foley is not blaming the priest for his inappropriate behavior, but that divulging the information is part of the healing process. 

It may be too late for Foley to file any criminal charges against the priest.  The Miami Herald notes that the statute of limitations may have expired. 

Bloomberg looks at the success being reaped by the partly liberal-funded Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, which has "played a role in almost every major Republican scandal this year, including those surrounding [Tom] DeLay, disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and former Representative Mark Foley." 

In another possible ethics-related speed-bump for Republicans right before the midterm elections, by the end of next week, the public will get it first glimpse of the White House logs showing the official visitors to Cheney's White House office and residence for the past two years.  The Washington Post asked for the logs two years ago.  A federal judge yesterday ordered their release within the next 10 days.  Government attorneys called it "a fishing expedition into the most sensitive details of the vice presidency."

 

The New York Times front-pages a divided GOP -- tax-cutters are blaming evangelicals, conservatives are pointing their finger at neo-cons, and almost everyone is blaming Foley.  "Whether the election will bear out their pessimism remains to be seen…  But the post-mortem recriminations can influence politics and policy for years after the fact.  After 1992, Republicans shunned tax increases.  After 1994, Democrats avoided gun control and health care reform.  And 2004 led some Democrats to start quoting Scripture and rethinking abortion rights." 

Bloomberg looks at Republican campaign committee spending in areas of the country that until now had been reliably Republican. 

Sen. John McCain (R) is scheduled to headline a mid-day fundraiser for vulnerable Rep. Tom Reynolds in Rochester, NY, with a joint media availability to follow.  Karl Rove also headlines an evening fundraiser for Reynolds.  Reynolds, the party's House campaign committee chief, has gone from being a fairly safe bet for re-election to being one of his party's most endangered incumbents because of his role in the Foley scandal.

"The Democratic Party's three major campaign committees raised more money last month than their Republican counterparts, slicing deep into a financial edge Republicans hoped would provide an advantage in the final weeks," says the Wall Street Journal. 

Appearing with Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman on TODAY this morning (and reminding us by doing so that Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean has spent the entire election cycle avoiding joint appearances with Mehlman), former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe said that Democrats would retake control of both chambers of Congress if the election were held today.  Mehlman predicted Republicans would hang onto both because of Democrats' alleged pro-tax and anti-security positions.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is poised to win re-election and possibly become Speaker.  But in an article entitled "Only in S.F. would minority leader be criticized as too moderate," the San Francisco Chronicle notes that Pelosi is facing opposition from both the right and left in her bid for re-election. 

USA Today looks at how the McCain-Feingold provision requiring candidates to identify themselves as the source of the messages in their ads now means candidates are "delivering negative messages themselves." 

In CALIFORNIA, Orange County Republicans urged the GOP candidate facing Rep. Loretta Sanchez (D) to withdraw from the race "after he acknowledged that his campaign was involved in sending out a letter intended to scare off Latino voters.  "The episode was a jarring reminder of what some observers call Orange County's history of xenophobia and voter intimidation, an ugly distinction that Republican leaders say they've tried hard to bury." 

Former President Clinton will fundraise for FLORIDA state Sen. Ron Klein, who's trying to unseat Rep. Clay Shaw.  Klein hopes to raise about $500,000 from Clinton's visit.  The Miami Herald points out that Klein isn't the only one who hopes to "capitalize" on the visit.  Shaw "released a radio commercial acknowledging Clinton's appearance -- and used it as a springboard to cast his 26 years in Congress as a moderate, bipartisan tenure." 

Mehlman rallies with GOP House candidates in ILLINOIS.

In MARYLAND's hotly contested governor's race, "An independent group funded by Democratic and Democratic-leaning interest groups has spent close to $1 million on television and radio ads comparing Maryland Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. to President Bush."  In the not quite as competitive Senate race, the two candidates are airing dueling ads over just how closely GOP nominee Michael Steele is tied to Bush and his party. 

Last night's gubernatorial debate in MASSACHUSETTS was the feistiest yet.  Republican nominee and Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey "stationed supporters outside the debate posing in orange jumpsuits with signs reading 'Inmates for Deval Patrick.'"  Healey has been accusing attorney and Democratic nominee Patrick of being soft on a rapist and a cop killer.  Sen. Barack Obama (D) campaigns for Patrick today. 

With crime being a big focus of the debate, the Boston Globe truth-squads some of the facts and figures used by candidates in last night's debate and finds that both Patrick and Healey used inaccurate statistics. 

The Los Angeles Times is the latest to profile MINNESOTA's Keith Ellison (D), who is poised to become the first Muslim member of Congress. 

Presidential candidate and former NORTH CAROLINA Sen. John Edwards (D) campaigns with House candidate Heath Shuler in Asheville.

Presidential candidate and Sen. John Kerry (D) campaigns with SOUTH CAROLINA Democrats.

The two parties' biggest fundraisers descended upon VIRGINIA last night.  Bush raised about $530,000 for Sen. George Allen, while former President Clinton raised money for challenger Jim Webb (D).

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Elizabeth Wilner
Campaigning at a (still rare, so far) public event with endangered GOP Rep. Don Sherwood in Pennsylvania today, President Bush offered some strong partisan rhetoric.  On the Democratic party: "There is only one position in the Democrat party that everybody seems to agree on. If you wanna be a Democrat these days, you can be for almost anything, but victory in Iraq is not an option." And on House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi: "The Speaker of the House, official third in line for presidency, would be a congresswoman who voted against renewing the Patriot Act,against creating the Department of Homeland Security, against removing Saddam Hussein from power, against continuing the terrorist surveillance program, and against questioning terrorists in the CIA program."

Sherwood, who's vulnerable mainly because of an admitted extramarital affair, brought his wife and daughter onto Air Force One via the back steps when the plane landed in Pennsylvania so that they could be seen deplaning down the main staircase alongside the President, per the pool reporter.

From NBC's Mark Murray
In a conference call today, Sen. Chuck Schumer, chair of the Democratic Senate campaign committee, argued that Republican Senate candidates are "tying themselves into knots" on Iraq and national security -- proof, he said, that Democrats are winning on these issues. For example, Schumer cited GOP Sen. Conrad Burns' recent remark at a debate that Bush has a secret plan to win in Iraq. Schumer also brought up GOP Sen. Rick Santorum's recent "Lord of the Rings" analogy to Iraq. "As the hobbits are going up Mount Doom, the Eye of Mordor is being drawn somewhere else. It's being drawn to Iraq and it's not being drawn to the U.S.," Santorum said. "You know what? I want to keep it on Iraq. I don't want the Eye to come back here to the United States."

"Secret plans, 'Lord of the Rings,'" Schumer said in the conference call. "Simply put, when candidates are talking about wizards and hobbits to explain their positions on national security, it raises red flags."

From NBC's WHO-TV in Des Moines and MSNBC's Hardball
Sen. John McCain (R) joked yesterday that he would "commit suicide" if Democrats win control of the Senate in November. 

McCain made the remark during a campaign stop in Iowa on behalf of Republican congressional candidates. When asked for his reaction to a potential Democratic takeover of the Senate in the midterm elections, McCain said, "I think I'd just commit suicide... I don't want to face that eventuality because I don't think it's going to happen. I think it's going to be tough, but I think we'll do OK."

Asked about the comment by MSNBC's Chris Matthews on Hardball last night, McCain, said, "I thought that was a pretty good line."  Matthews: "But is it that important?"  McCain: "I think it's important to America, but I think it's -- every once in a while, we should have a little levity."

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Jennifer Colby.
Nineteen days before the midterm elections, the Republican party is approaching -- and in some cases setting -- low watermarks in the NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, driven mainly by the public's increasingly negative views of the war in Iraq and of the performance of the GOP-run Congress in the wake of the Mark Foley scandal.  Voters rate North Korea's nuclear missile test as an important recent event in deciding how they will vote, but opinions remain volatile and at this point, they give Republicans only a slight edge over Democrats on it.

By a margin of 15 points, voters prefer a Democratic- to a Republican-controlled Congress, 52% to 37%.  That's the widest margin ever recorded for either party in the survey.  It also marks a six-point increase in Democrats' favor since our last poll two weeks prior, when the margin between the two parties was nine points.  The new poll was conducted from October 13-16 of 1,006 registered voters and has a margin of error of +/-3.1%. 

Congress' job approval rating in the survey is 16%, one point away from its all-time low of 15% from April 1992.  In October 1994, when the last wave election swept the Democratic majority party from power, Congress' job approval was 24%.  The poll also shows the Republican party with one of its lowest positive ratings and its highest negative rating ever recorded: 32% positive, 49% negative.  Rated 37% positively and 35% negatively, the Democratic party has come to be viewed as a "marginally acceptable alternative," per our NBC/Journal pollsters. 

Two issues are causing this downshift for the GOP, which comes despite some improvement in feelings about the economy.  While Bush's overall job approval rating has dropped a point over the past two weeks, from 39% to 38%, his job approval rating on handling the economy has increased three points.  "Americans sometimes don't pause to give you credit," says NBC/Journal pollster Bill McInturff (R).  "They move on to what they're concerned about."  Those concerns, per the survey, are Iraq and Congress' performance.  "Those issues have overwhelmed what they think in terms of the economy," McInturff says.

Iraq continues to be the top issue for voters, and one on which they prefer Democrats over Republicans by 39% to 31%.  The survey was taken before the one-day US death toll there hit a 10-month high earlier this week.  Even so, President Bush's job approval rating on handling the war has dropped five points in one month, and the level of optimism about the way things are going there has plummeted 24 points since we last measured it in June.  When voters were asked an open-ended question about what message they'd like to send to Congress with their vote, the "number one response is dissatisfaction with the way things are going in Iraq," says McInturff.

The Foley scandal, co-pollster Peter Hart (D) says, has been "the coagulate of this election" in that it served to harden all of voters' various uncertainties about the Republican leadership in Congress.  The scandal hit two different buttons, Hart says: "Children are our central nervous system," and also, "the leadership were more interested in saving their own skins, and they acted like politicians instead of acting like fathers."  Although the poll shows that the scandal has not seriously undercut the GOP's traditional advantage over Democrats when it comes to promoting strong moral values, 55% of those polled who've heard about the scandal are dissatisfied with the way GOP leaders handled it.  The upshot, per Hart, is that voters now feel as though they have permission to vote against the party.

Also rather problematic for Republicans: Foley is recognized by a remarkable 83% of the electorate; 69% view him negatively.  House Majority Leader John Boehner and former House Clerk Jeff Trandahl are scheduled to testify before the Ethics Committee today about their knowledge of Foley's inappropriate behavior toward pages.

In a pair of rare public appearances, President Bush stands with two of his party's more controversial incumbents on the ballot; most Bush events with candidates are still closed to the press.  But check out who he's appearing with.  Rep. Don Sherwood of Pennsylvania has admitted to having an adulterous affair and is fending off charges that he abused the woman with whom he had the affair.  And Sen. George Allen's problems, including some with racial undertones, have been well-documented on YouTube and the front page of the Washington Post.  The Democratic House campaign committee points out that Bush has proclaimed this week to be "National Character Counts Week." 

Got calendar? 

Even as Republican campaign committees make highly unusual investments in places like, um, Idaho, one top White House official insists to NBC's David Gregory that the gloomy outlook for Republicans is overstated.  This official says that the economy, the war, and a cluster of local issues will decide the election, and that the big issues for Bush down the stretch will be taxes and terror.

Is Bush a liability?  "No."  The official went on, "He can help sharpen the questions that will decide these races; he can motivate the broad party to pay attention; and he can help candidates garner the resources to win."  Asked about voter intensity, the official cited internal surveys and public studies concluding that that intensity levels between Democrats and Republicans are even.  He also insists that his party holds the Senate, keeping their seats in Missouri and Virginia, which analysts see as toss-ups right now.  He also believes that the party still has a shot to keep Montana and seems upbeat about Rhode Island and Tennessee, though he thinks Pennsylvania and Ohio are likely gone, Gregory reports.  As for the House, it's a close call, the official says, but could go either way.  He says of potential losses, "I'm now more a 9-10-11-12-13 guy."

After Vice President Dick Cheney told Rush Limbaugh on Tuesday that his party will keep control of the Senate and has "a good shot" at keeping control of the House, White House spokesman Tony Snow was asked yesterday if there's been any change in the White House's confidence about the election outcome.  Snow replied that "the President is going to make it clear to Republicans that he not only thinks they're going to win, he's going to help them win." 

That said, Snow also told White House reporters last week that by late this week, Bush would be doing lots of public events with candidates.  When asked about that today in light of tonight's closed-press fundraiser, he demurred.  As we noted yesterday, Bush's visit to North Carolina did not include stops in the districts of two vulnerable GOP members.

Bloomberg does the story on Laura Bush being more popular on the campaign trail than her husband.  The story notes, "According to the president's schedule and a list of public speeches, including fund-raisers, posted on the White House Web site, 46 percent of his campaign events during this election cycle have been private affairs off-limits to the press."

  The Financial Times: "The relative absence of the president from the campaign trail bears a striking resemblance to the way Tony Blair, UK prime minister, was all but removed from Labour's European election campaign a year before the 2005 general election.  Though Mr Blair went on to win that election, Labour's vote slumped.  Such is the sense of gloom in Republican ranks that party leaders are openly admitting the possibility of defeat on November 7.  There may be an element of managing expectation, but such doom-mongering is previously unheard of for the Republicans." 

Roll Call calls Trandahl's testimony potentially "the turning point" in the Ethics Committee probe of Foley's behavior and how House GOP leaders handled it.  "Trandahl could provide key testimony as to when senior aides to Hastert were first informed of Foley's alleged inappropriate behavior with male pages.  Trandahl also could confirm or dispute the veracity of the timeline of events released by the Speaker's office on Sept. 30...  Trandahl's testimony also will be central to corroborating the testimony of Kirk Fordham."  

NBC's Mark Potter reports that two attorneys for Foley say they have given the name of the clergyman who allegedly abused Foley to the Palm Beach County State Attorney.  So far, they have not released the name publicly, and say that to the best of their knowledge, this man no longer resides in the United States.

Rep. Bob Ney (R), despite pleading guilty to corruption charges, still hasn't resigned.  Receptionists still answer the phone saying, "The office of congressman Bob Ney," and he's still collecting a paycheck and will be eligible for a pension.  "Until the House reconvenes after the elections, there is no way under Congressional rules to force him out.  Republican House leaders have vowed to make Mr. Ney's expulsion their first order of business when they return to Washington next month." 

Public Citizen's newest study of campaign contributions says House Appropriations chair Jerry Lewis "got more campaign cash from lobbyists than any of his colleagues did."  Lewis "is under federal scrutiny over his ties to lobbyists whose clients have received millions of dollars in earmarks from the appropriations committee.  He has denied any impropriety...  The analysis was unlikely to become campaign fodder in the battle for control of Congress, because members of both parties were high on the lists." 

 

The US and Iraqi offensive "to wrest control of Baghdad from insurgents and sectarian death squads is producing some of the most intense fighting of the war and a spike in American deaths," says USA Today.  "At least a third of the recent fatalities happened in Baghdad.  At the current pace, October would be the deadliest month since November 2004 when 137 troops died...  White House spokesman Tony Snow said the spike in deaths would not make President Bush reconsider his options in Iraq." 

The New York Times front-pages how Democrats, on the campaign trail and in TV ads, are mentioning the Iraq war while Republicans aren't.  "It represents a startling contrast with the two national elections beginning in 2002…  The development also suggests that what has been a classic strategy of Mr. Bush's senior adviser, Karl Rove - to turn a weakness into a strength - is not working as well as the White House had hoped." 

The Republican National Committee is circulating a stark new web ad titled "The Stakes" which seeks to either -- depending on your point of view -- remind voters that the nation's security depends on the outcome of this election, or just flat-out scare people into voting Republican.  The ad features images of Osama bin Laden and other known Islamic terrorists, along with quotes from them threatening attacks on the United States.  The only audio is the sound of a ticking clock, which gets louder as the web ad reaches its conclusion with images of explosions and terrorists carrying guns.  "What is yet to come will be even greater."

After breaking through 12,000, the next magic marks for the Dow will be closing above 12,000, and the new high of 12,049.51 level it hit in intraday trading yesterday, notes CNBC's Patti Domm.

The Washington Times covers Republican efforts to shift voters' attention to the economy. 

The Los Angeles Times uses the GOP's investment in an Idaho House seat to look at how the pool of competitive Republican-held seats "has jumped week by week, giving Democrats an ever-bigger target to shoot at...  Even a top Republican strategist estimates that the number of highly vulnerable Republican seats has more than doubled in recent weeks - and now far exceeds the 15 seats Democrats need to pick up to win a House majority...  Still, some analysts say Republicans could reduce their losses in the final weeks of the campaign if the spotlight moves to issues that play to GOP strengths, such as the war on terrorism and falling gasoline prices." 

The Washington Times reports anecdotal evidence of a dispirited Christian conservative base.  "With Election Day less than three weeks away, however, efforts to mobilize conservative voters are intensifying.  Top Republicans -- including [Bush], his chief strategist Karl Rove, [Cheney] and [RNC chair] Ken Mehlman -- have been meeting with conservative activists, columnists and broadcasters, emphasizing the importance of this midterm election.  That message has rippled out via newspapers, magazines, TV, radio and the Internet...  Republican media consultant Craig Shirley said the party's national leadership appears to be trying to scare disaffected voters to the polls by arguing that Republicans aren't as bad as the Democrats." 

 

"Democrats' election-year agenda, which says what they will do if the voters put them back in charge of Congress, would seek to overturn or change just about everything President Bush and the Republicans have done since 2001," including "repealing the bulk of the administration's tax cuts, ending the ban on federal funding for new lines of stem-cell research and limiting some of the investigative, prosecutorial and surveillance methods in the counterterrorism USA Patriot Act," says the Washington Times.  "But a top election pollster questions whether Democrats' agenda will play that much of a role in the election's outcome." 

In his speech at Georgetown yesterday, former President Clinton said "that the governing Republican majority has abandoned the common good in favor of ideologically driven politics that demonize its opponents, has forced ordinary Americans to fend for themselves and has too often left the United States isolated internationally."  He also "was critical of various Bush administration policies.  Noting that there are no easy solutions, he said the administration has undermined its efforts to stop North Korea and Iran from developing nuclear weapons by seeking funds for two new nuclear weapons for the U.S. arsenal." 

The New York Daily News notes that Clinton did not try to get the crowd to vote for Democrats this November, but echoed speeches he has made boosting his wife, Sen. Hillary Clinton, for a 2008 presidential run. 

Roll Call says the seemingly growing prospect of a 50-50 Senate has officials from both parties agreeing "it likely would force them to revisit a delicate power-sharing agreement struck by Senate leaders in early 2001."  Back then, when Republicans controlled the Senate by virtue of Cheney's tie-breaking vote, "Republicans kept their chairmanships and [then-Majority Leader Trent] Lott remained in charge...  But Democrats were given equal committee representation, staff and resources."  Still, "the 2001 deal holds no official weight given it was part of a nonbinding resolution.  And, many Senate sources suggest that the incoming leaders may be less willing to compromise." 

The Democratic campaign committees are coming under increasing pressure to borrow money in order to target more potentially competitive races. 

 

USA Today samples some of the more striking campaign ads airing on TV, saying that old-fashioned ads are still the best way to shape voters' attitudes, despite the ground broken by YouTube and other websites.  "Most Americans insist they don't believe what is said in campaign commercials...  Campaign strategists and political scientists say ads do work, though, especially the negative ones that voters profess to hate." 

A radio ad paid for by a conservative African-American group is causing controversy with its assertion that Martin Luther King Jr. was a Republican, and some prominent black Republicans agree with their Democratic counterparts that the ad should be pulled. 

In CALIFORNIA, the Sacramento Bee reports that Phil Angelides (D) is stepping up his character attacks on Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) -- this time suggesting that the governor "should respond to recall-era claims that he once groped and humiliated women…  'It was the governor who told (former NBC anchor) Tom Brokaw on national news that he would fully look into this matter and tell the people what it was all about,' Angelides said.  'He was the one who made his commitment and didn't keep his promise.'" 

Democrats are increasingly confident they can unseat the state's two GOP veteran congressmen, Reps. John Doolittle and Richard Pombo.  The Democratic House campaign committee says "favorable trends" in the past few weeks have allowed them to add 24 House seats to the list of competitive races. 

The Wall Street Journal looks at the GOP's weak hold on the governorship and two or three House seats in COLORADO. 

In FLORIDA, state law prohibits election officials and Foley replacement candidate Joe Negron (R) from placing signs at polling places explaining to voters that a vote for Foley is really a vote for him. 

In IOWA's competitive contest for governor, a new independent poll shows Chet Culver (D) leading Jim Nussle (R), 49%-44%. 

In KANSAS, "nine former Republicans will be on the November ballot as Democrats," the Washington Post reports.  "Though yet untested in the election booth, the Democratic developments in Kansas reflect polls in many parts of the country.  As elsewhere, Democrats and moderate Republicans say they are frustrated with policies and practices they trace to Republican leadership, including the Iraq war, ballooning government spending, ethics violations and the influence of social conservatives." 

Former President Clinton rallies with MARYLAND Senate nominee Ben Cardin (D) in Baltimore City this afternoon.

A prominent lawyers' publication in MASSACHUSETTS has broken tradition and endorsed gubernatorial nominee Deval Patrick (D) because of his opponent Kerry Healey's attacks on Patrick's legal work. 

The Chicago Tribune notes how MICHIGAN has become ground zero for the war over affirmative action, as the state considers a ballot initiative that would eliminate affirmative action in public education, hiring, and contracting.  "The vote comes as affirmative action… remains in the spotlight.  The Supreme Court will hear cases this term from Seattle and Louisville about whether public elementary and high schools can consider race in assigning students to specific schools to maintain a racial balance." 

Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean rallies Democratic students at the University of MINNESOTA.

"MONTANA Democrats on Wednesday blasted GOP Sen. Conrad Burns for saying in Tuesday's debate that he believes President Bush has a plan to win the war in Iraq but is keeping it quiet.  'We're not going to tell you what our plan is,' Burns told Democrat Jon Tester.  Matt McKenna, a Tester spokesman, likened Burns' comments to statements by President Nixon that led to rumors of a 'secret plan' to end or win the war in Vietnam."  Burns' spokesman Jason Klindt "said he doesn't know if Burns knows any specifics of a plan, but added, 'I think he knows the general strategy.'" 

Presidential candidate and Sen Evan Bayh campaigns with the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in his party's second-in-the-nation caucus state NEVADA.

Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman is in PENNSYLVANIA today campaigning for Republicans in the Philadelphia suburbs.

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
After Vice President Dick Cheney told Rush Limbaugh yesterday that his party will keep control of the Senate and has "a good shot" at keeping control of the House, White House spokesman Tony Snow was asked today if there's been any change in the White House's confidence about the election outcome.  Snow replied: "We're confident we're going to hold the House because we think we have better candidates and better arguments.  And in the last two weeks of a campaign people focus on that.  And the President is going to make it clear to Republicans that he not only thinks they're going to win, he's going to help them win." That said, Snow also told White House reporters last week that by late this week, Bush would be doing lots of public events with candidates. When asked about that today in light of tonight's closed-press fundraiser, he demurred.

[excerpt]

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Jennifer Colby

Twenty days until election day...  A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll being released at 6:30 pm ET on NBC Nightly News and on MSNBC.com will provide us with an idea of where things stand for Republicans now that the Mark Foley scandal and negative developments for the Bush Administration on Iraq -- namely, the National Intelligence Estimate and the Woodward book -- are further behind them.  The last NBC/Journal poll was taken two weeks ago, just after those developments broke.  Also tested in this latest poll: the level of public support for military action in North Korea.

Vice President Cheney yesterday told Rush Limbaugh that Republicans will keep control of the Senate and have "a good shot" at keeping control of the House, and that although he admittedly spends his time with Republican audiences while on the road, he finds "a far more positive attitude out there than one would led by believe just by reading the national press."  Karl Rove more confidently tells the Washington Times editorial board that the party will keep both majorities and joked about "skewed political coverage that disproportionately shows Democrats poised to take control of Congress."

[/excerpt

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, and Jennifer Colby

Twenty days until election day...  A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll being released at 6:30 pm ET on NBC Nightly News and on MSNBC.com will provide us with an idea of where things stand for Republicans now that the Mark Foley scandal and negative developments for the Bush Administration on Iraq -- namely, the National Intelligence Estimate and the Woodward book -- are further behind them.  The last NBC/Journal poll was taken two weeks ago, just after those developments broke.  Also tested in this latest poll: the level of public support for military action in North Korea.

Vice President Cheney yesterday told Rush Limbaugh that Republicans will keep control of the Senate and have "a good shot" at keeping control of the House, and that although he admittedly spends his time with Republican audiences while on the road, he finds "a far more positive attitude out there than one would led by believe just by reading the national press."  Karl Rove more confidently tells the Washington Times editorial board that the party will keep both majorities and joked about "skewed political coverage that disproportionately shows Democrats poised to take control of Congress."

As his Secretary of State works US allies in Asia, President Bush heads to Greensboro, NC for a No Child Left Behind event and an expected $900,000 fundraiser for the Republican National Committee.  The fundraiser will be held at a private home and closed to the media.  North Carolina is home to a very vulnerable GOP member of Congress and a potentially vulnerable one, though Bush isn't stopping in either district. 

Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman is in Florida today campaigning with Joe Negron, the Republican seeking to replace Foley in Congress.  Rep. Rodney Alexander is expected to testify before the House Ethics Committee today about his awareness of Foley's inappropriate behavior toward pages.  Also expected to appear this week are House Majority Leader John Boehner and former House Clerk Jeff Trandahl.  The Washington Post reports that the House page board has asked the Ethics Committee to look into retiring GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe's relationship with a page.  And the non-Foley scandal embroiling Rep. Curt Weldon (R) seems to be growing.

In what looks like an effort to help Democrats focus their message as an appealing alternative, former President Clinton will give what aides call a "major speech" at Georgetown University later this morning "outlining his governing philosophy vis a vis" -- or versus, you might say -- "the dominant (and failed) governing philosophy of the last six years," as Clinton aide Jay Carson tells MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell.  The address "will give a path forward for Democrats and progressives by describing in detail how the way we actually govern works better for the country and the world than the way they govern." 

In a speech last week at UC-Santa Barbara, former NBC Political Unit intern Ryann Gastwirth notes, Clinton predicted changes in Washington, spoke about the difference between ideology and philosophy, and said a president should never become blind to evidence and argument.  His address today is being hosted by the Center for American Progress, a liberal-leaning think tank that employs a lot of former Clinton aides and is viewed in Washington as a policy shop-in-waiting for another Clinton presidential campaign. 

Speaking of, Sen. John McCain (R), who seemed to be absent from yesterday's detainee bill-signing ceremony, does Hardball's College Tour at Iowa State University today at 5:00 pm ET.

Got calendar?

In Japan earlier today, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said "the United States is ready to use the 'full range' of its military might to defend Japan in light of North Korea's nuclear weapons test, and her Japanese counterpart drew a firm line against developing a Japanese bomb...  Part of Rice's assignment on this week's hastily arranged trip... is to lessen the temptation to develop separate national nuclear programs by reaffirming the U.S. intention to defend the nations most at risk." - AP

"The Bush administration is pressing the Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki to issue a 'broad' and 'painful' amnesty for insurgents in spite of intense opposition to the proposal from politicians both in Iraq and the US," a senior Administration official tells the Financial Times.  "The official was not explicit about the terms of the proposed amnesty...  The amnesty issue is divisive in both Iraq and the US, where the emotional question of how to honour American war dead - now at 2,750 - has become entangled in the debate over the merits of an early US withdrawal."

After Bush signed the detainee bill into law yesterday, White House spokesman Tony Snow warned reporters, "Don't hold your breath...  It will be months before the high-value detainees go to trial," NBC's Kelly O'Donnell notes.  Snow refused comment on when the CIA's interrogation program will resume or if there are any detainees in CIA custody now.  When Bush disclosed the program, officials said at that time that all detainees were out of CIA custody and transferred to Guantanamo.  Snow added that Bush "pretty much" got everything he wanted in the law despite that talk of a compromise.

The Los Angeles Times says the law "is bound to generate new and contentious legal challenges that probably will leave U.S. policies on detainees in an uncertain state.  In addition to the request to throw out lawsuits by detainees seeking to have their day in court, judges will be asked to decide new legal questions about the fairness of the tribunal process.  Both issues may end up before the Supreme Court."

Per the AP, a new poll finds that Americans "are anxious and frustrated over the state of U.S. foreign relations... with large majorities worried that the country's foreign policy is making the world increasingly dangerous for the U.S. and its people."  More: "The poll, taken in September, included an 'anxiety indicator' that calculates the level of angst in the country based on answers to five general survey questions.  The indicator registered 130 on a scale of zero to 200, with zero being the most secure and 200 the most anxious."

Bush has signed "first full revision of overall space policy in 10 years," the Washington Post says.  The new policy "rejects future arms-control agreements that might limit U.S. flexibility in space and asserts a right to deny access to space to anyone 'hostile to U.S. interests'...  The administration said the policy revisions are not a prelude to introducing weapons systems into Earth orbit."  The Administration "has briefed members of Congress as well as a number of governments," but the public doesn't know much about it because the "policy was released at 5 p.m. on the Friday before Columbus Day, with no public announcement."

Two and a half weeks since the Foley scandal broke and just under three weeks before the elections, House Republican leadership staffs are now "coordinating a messaging blitz in an attempt to shift some emphasis back to national security and the economy," says The Hill.  Other GOP officials are urging members and party operatives to do the same. 

House Majority Leader John Boehner is expected to appear before the Ethics Committee tomorrow to talk about his awareness and involvement in the Foley situation, per The Hill.

The AP previews Alexander's expected testimony today and also says "Republicans are bracing for testimony this week by [former House Clerk Jeff] Trandahl -- a top House aide who was the day-to-day overseer of the page program until leaving Capitol Hill last year," and who confronted Foley about some of his e-mails to a page.

The New York Times profiles Trandahl, who, as House clerk, "had a rare bird's-eye view of what was occurring beneath the Capitol dome.  As a gay Republican, he also had a window into a subculture not widely discussed within his party."

Foley, still in a treatment facility, plans to reveal to the Archdiocese of Miami the name of the clergyman he says abused him as a teenager.  "A spokeswoman for the Archdiocese of Miami urged Foley to identify his accuser so the healing process can begin," says the AP.  "Without the name of the priest, Archdiocese spokeswoman Mary Ross Agosta said, there is little the church can do."

The House page board has asked the Ethics Committee to look into retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe's relationship with pages; Kolbe is the only openly gay GOP member of Congress.  "The Washington Post has learned of a potentially inappropriate incident involving Kolbe and a male page.  The man recently told the House clerk's office and the FBI about an encounter with the Arizona Republican that occurred about five years ago when he was 16" and that "involved physical contact when he and Kolbe were alone...  The incident was not reported at the time, said the source, who emphasized that the encounter was based on the perception of a teenager five years ago."

The Washington Post also breaks new ground on Republican Rep. Curt Weldon's ties to a Serbian businessman who's tied to Slobodan Milosevic, and who paid Weldon's daughter's firm $20,000 per month for a stretch of time three years ago.  "A grand jury has been impaneled as part of the investigation, and it has obtained evidence gathered via wiretaps of Washington area cellphone numbers," the Post reports.

Following up on their big takeout yesterday on how many relatives of members and Hill staffers lobby Congress, USA Today says a survey of public opinion finds widespread disapproval of the practice, but a survey of lawmakers suggests they don't see a problem with it.  Conservative Rep. Jeff Flake (R) said yesterday "that the GOP risks its congressional majority by defending the practice" of earmarks, the paper notes.

Three weeks before election day, House Intelligence ranking member Jane Harman (D) has ticked off chairman Peter Hoekstra (R) by releasing the executive summary of a report showing that over five years, "former Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-Calif.) used his seat on the panel to help steer $70 million to $80 million in government contracts to two businessmen who allegedly paid him millions of dollars in bribes."  Harman, we'd add, is expected to rotate out of her post on the committee after the election. - Roll Call

Karl Rove told a Washington Times editorial board yesterday that "the Republican Party would hold the House and the Senate."  Rove said "Republicans are beginning to make significant headway in defining their party's differences from congressional Democrats, especially on national security."  He "was upbeat,... joking about skewed political coverage that disproportionately shows Democrats poised to take control of Congress."  Rove said he "remains confident that Republicans will not lose more than 15" House seats and that a Democratic takeover of the Senate is "virtually impossible."

Vice President Cheney did an interview by phone yesterday with Rush Limbaugh, who asked Cheney how he assesses voters' mood during his travels.  Cheney: "the mood that I find in terms of the people I'm talking with is very positive.  Now of course, I'm probably not going to see a lot of Democrats coming to a Republican fundraiser, so I don't want to misread the situation.  But I think I find a far more positive attitude out there than one would led by believe just by reading the national press."  Limbaugh: "Do you get frustrated when you see Republicans speculating on how many House seats they're going to lose?"  Cheney: "Well, I think it's a natural, normal situation at this stage...  I think we'll hold the Senate, and I also think we got a good shot at holding the House."

The Washington Post outlines how a Democratic capture of one or both houses of Congress "would be the end of George W. Bush's presidency as he has known it...  The White House says it is not making contingency plans for a Democratic win, but Bush advisers are bracing for what they privately recognize is the increasing likelihood...  Most worrisome to the White House is the subpoena power that Democrats would gain with a majority."  The story notes that "as a practical matter, Bush faced an opposition chamber in Congress for just 98 days before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, after which both parties rallied behind him for a time.  Republicans won back the Senate in 2002."

But Bruce Bartlett, a former Reagan and Bush (41) official, pens a New York Times op-ed arguing that Republicans have nothing to fear about Democrats taking control of Congress.  Although Bush's "veto pen may have been misplaced for most of the last six years, he found it again this summer...  Congress will be on automatic pilot for the next two years regardless of which party is in control."

"Democratic challengers in more than two-dozen House and Senate races are attacking Republicans in Congress for taking pay raises while voting against a minimum wage increase," says USA Today.  "The attacks are contained in... ads running from

A bipartisan group of former election officials and experts will hold a conference call today to brief reporters on what voters can expect at the polls this November, given the recent proliferation of new voting laws and new voting equipment.

In another brewing spat between the Democratic House campaign committee and the Democratic National Committee, the Washington Post reports that the party's top House strategists are willing to broaden their pool of targeted races in these final weeks to make the most of the bad climate for Republicans, but that the DNC isn't kicking in money to help.  "The [DNC] has no plans to help finance a last-minute push because it just took out a loan to spend up to $10 million more, primarily on Senate races."  (Editor's note: A loan?)  But the DNC isn't the only potential source of funding that's not coming through.

 

"A record 22 Democratic candidates have raised at least $1 million each to challenge incumbents in the most competitive House races," Bloomberg reports.  "The number who had passed the $1 million threshold by the end of last month was nearly double the number at a comparable point in 2004."

 

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
There's a milestone for everyone, whether you're interested in 300 million Americans, the prospect of the Dow at 12000, or today marking three weeks until election day.  You know which one the White House has in mind as it tries to re-center the midterm election debate on the war on terror, and re-center that debate on Iraq.  "Iraq is the central front in the global war on terror that began five years ago," Vice President Cheney told members of the Army's 101st Airborne Division at Fort Campbell in Kentucky yesterday.  "Al Qaeda has operatives in Iraq right now."

The White House is touting this day, on which President Bush will sign the compromise and controversial detainee trial and treatment bill into law, as an "historic day."  NBC's Kelly O'Donnell reports that about 150 people will attend this morning's bill-signing, including much of the Administration's security team (minus the traveling Condoleezza Rice), and that Bush will seek to make the case that the legislation "will help prevent terrorist attacks." 

Asked a battery of questions about the White House's view of the extent of the bill's provisions yesterday, White House spokesman Tony Snow said their legal counsel "is actually putting together a paper" to help him lay out the "definitions that outline what constitutes torture," which he plans to share with, but not release to, the press corps today.  "It's not like a formal release, it's just me trying to do my homework," he told reporters.  He also said there will be no presidential signing statement.

Critics, meanwhile, will continue to try to make Iraq central to their argument against the Administration's security policies -- that the war has weakened the Administration's ability to deal with, for example, the nuclear threat from North Korea. 

Pennsylvania is starting to feel like the new Ohio -- the next state where a series of scandals may collectively turn voters off of the GOP.  It's the only state with about as many endangered Republican-held seats, including a Senate seat and four House seats.  Among other locations, the FBI has raided the homes of the daughter and close friend of one of those vulnerable members, Rep. Curt Weldon, who's being investigated for possibly steering lucrative consulting work their way.  Another, Rep. Don Sherwood, for whom President Bush will campaign on Thursday, is endangered because of an adulterous affair.  Sen. Arlen Specter, who's not on the ballot this year, is cooperating with a probe of whether one of his staffers directed business to her lobbyist husband. 

Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid announced yesterday that he'll amend his disclosure of a complicated land deal to more fully account for how the deal reaped him over $1 million.  He also has Christmas bonus issues. 

Per Democratic Rep. Dale Kildee, the House page board held a conference call yesterday "about other allegations... not about Mr. Foley," NBC's Mike Viqueira reports.  Kildee refused to be more specific, repeating that these were "only allegations."  He could have been referring to retiring GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe since, as NBC's Investigative Unit has reported, federal officials are investigating Kolbe's behavior on a camping trip with two House pages 10 years ago.

"Nobody is saying that Democrats will be picking up 50 seats, or even 40 seats.  But could this hit 25 or 30 or 35 seats in the House?  Heck yes," barring unforeseen circumstances, writes NBC political analyst Charlie Cook in his latest NationalJournal.com column.  "Democratic voters are spitting nails and can't wait to vote while their Republican counterparts are showing signs of despondency and may be impervious to party pleas to turn out and vote, no matter how elaborate the program is.   That's how midterm election debacles occur - disproportionate turnout."

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