The Washington Post's Milbank does a busy-day-in-the-pre-election-life of NBC's own Charlie Cook, nonpartisan political prognosticator and publisher of the respected, nonpartisan Cook Political Report. 

On the heels of the MSNBC/McClatchy polls comes a new Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll of five states with key Senate races that shows "Democrats with the lead in Ohio, New Jersey and Virginia.  Republicans are ahead in Tennessee and Missouri.  In all five contests, the margins were close enough that the advantage could change by Election Day...  There's good news in the poll for the Democrats' bid to win the 15 seats they need to take over the House, as voters in all five states said they would prefer Democrats to control Congress after the Nov. 7 elections." 

The Times report on the polls says that the Democratic party "is facing potentially decisive resistance from rural voters in three critical Republican-leaning states," Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia. 

A busy Sen. John Kerry (D) appears with Sen. Bob Menendez in New Jersey to talk about Iraq, and does a town hall with Ned Lamont and military veterans in Connecticut.  Kerry also sent an e-mail solicitation to his 3 million-person list yesterday asking for contributions for the Democratic Senate candidates in Missouri, New Jersey, Tennessee and Virginia. 

The San Francisco Chronicle writes how aggressively House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has been campaigning this year.  Her PAC is responsible for generating as much as $50 million for Democratic House candidates. 

In CALIFORNIA, the Chronicle says, GOP Rep. Richard Pombo's re-election bid is becoming increasingly competitive.  Democrats have announced they've bought TV time for the first negative ads against him.   The race is expected to cost upwards of $10 million, making it one of the most expensive congressional races in California history. 

Just one day after a poll showed the race tightening, FLORIDA gubernatorial candidates Charlie Crist (R) and Jim Davis (D) faced off in their first debate last night.  The Miami Herald writes that "Crist balanced his sharp attacks with a cheery outlook for Florida's future, marveling at the balmy weather and referring to popular politicians -- even Democrats, including former Gov. Lawton Chiles" while "Davis dished out just about as much as he got..." 

In MASSACHUSETTS, Republican Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey and Democrat Deval Patrick will square off in their fourth debate tonight.  A new poll shows Patrick leading Healey, 53% to 26%.  The Boston Globe writes that voters were turned off to Healey's negative campaigning, giving Patrick a boost.  "Sixty-one percent of those surveyed said the tone of Healey's campaign made them less likely to vote for her, and 53 percent said they had an unfavorable view of Healey.  By contrast, 60 percent of voters had a positive view of Patrick, whose lead grew from 21 to 27 percentage points this month."  Healey, who has donated $600,000 her own campaign, is trying to evoke a more positive image with new campaign ads.

Healey is bringing in another face to help with her image: her mother. 

With former President Clinton expected to campaign for Patrick today, the Boston Herald points out that Patrick has criticized Clinton for not supporting same-sex marriage. 

The national GOP has sent mailers charging that Mary Jo Kilroy (D), who is taking on vulnerable OHIO Rep. Deborah Pryce (R), is sympathetic to the KKK.  Per the Columbus Dispatch, "Kilroy was on the losing end of a 5-2 Columbus Board of Education vote encouraging the Capital Square Review and Advisory Board to deny the Klan the right to demonstrate at the Statehouse on [Martin Luther] King's birthday. At the time, she said she detests the Klan but supports its right to demonstrate."  

In its profile of TEXAS gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman (I), the Houston Chronicle notes how the iconoclastic singer and author has a hard time why he's receiving so much scrutiny and criticism.  "'I didn't expect the media to be so low,' he said…  'I thought they would go after the guy who's really stuffing money in his pants.  That's (Gov. Rick) Perry.  Or they would go after the hypocrisy of (Democratic candidate Chris) Bell.  But no, they're going after how much do we make from the talking action figure.'" 

The Chronicle also says it will be Bush versus Kerry all over again in Lone Star State's gubernatorial race -- with Bush stumping for Gov. Rick Perry (R) on November 6, while Kerry does a fundraiser for Chris Bell (D) this Friday.  The Bell camp is also hoping for a visit from former President Clinton. 

VIRGINIA "Senate candidate Jim Webb's last name has been cut off on part of the electronic ballot in three... cities because of a computer glitch that also affects other candidates with long names," USA Today reports.  "The Democrat's full name, James H. 'Jim' Webb, appears where voters choose a candidate.  The error shows up on the summary page in Alexandria, Falls Church and Charlottesville, where voters are asked to review their selections before hitting the button to record their votes.  Webb's opponent, Sen. George Allen, didn't emerge unscathed - his party affiliation is cut off."  (Editor's note: We doubt he minds.)  The issues aren't expected to get fixed before election day. 

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Speaker Dennis Hastert has emerged from the House Ethics Committee hearing room after about two and a half hours.  (His deputy chief of staff, Mike Stokke, was also seen going into the room, where we think he's now testifying.)

Hastert told reporters that he answered the committee's questions "to the best of my ability," and that he wants the committee to find out everyonewho knew about Mark Foley's conduct.  "Who knew about the sexually explicit messages... when did they know it?" he asked rhetorically.

Translation: Virtually every Republican member who has emerged from the committee after testifying has given a variation of the same line.  They are trying to imply that there were Democrats who knew of the explicit communications (not just the "overfriendly" e-mails that they admit to knowing of), and that they need to be called to testify, as well.

From NBC News:
House Speaker Dennis Hastert has arrived at the Ethics Committee hearing room to testify in the Mark Foley case.

From NBC's Mark Murray
The nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics said today that candidates, the political parties, and other outside groups will spend an estimated $2.6 billion -- yes, billion -- on this year's House and Senate races, making it the most expensive midterm election ever.

In 2002, the total price tag was $2.2 billion (and that was before the McCain-Feingold campaign-finance law banned unlimited contributions from the political parties). In 2004, it was $4.2 billion (but that was during a presidential contest). To put the $2.6 billion figure in perspective, that's more than the gross domestic products (GDP) of countries like Swaziland, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Rwanda, Togo, and Malawi, per data from the International Monetary Fund.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Two weeks out...  The latest round of MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon polls suggest several key Senate races might be breaking for Democrats, but the polls don't reflect a giant wave building that will shut Republicans out of all competitive seats.  

The polls show the GOP incumbents in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island trailing their Democratic opponents by margins wider than the margin of error (by 8 points, 12 points, and 5 points, respectively).  The GOP's incumbents in Missouri and Montana and their challenger in New Jersey also lag behind their Democratic rivals, but within the margin of error (by 3 points in each case).  Their incumbent in Virginia and their nominee in Tennessee both have slim leads.  The horse-race results:

Missouri  TALENT (R) 43%, McCaskill (D) 46%
Montana  BURNS (R) 43%, Tester (D) 46%
New Jersey MENENDEZ (D) 45%, Kean (R) 42%
Ohio  DEWINE (R) 40%, Brown (D) 48%
Pennsylvania SANTORUM (R) 39%, Casey (D) 51%
Rhode Island CHAFEE (R) 43%, Whitehouse (D) 48%
Tennessee Corker (R) 45%, Ford (D) 43%
Virginia  ALLEN (R) 47%, Webb (D) 43%

Remember: Democrats are looking to pick up two seats between Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia to add to the four they're more likely to win in order to put together the six they need to retake control of the Senate. 

Three new national polls show Bush with a job approval rating of 37%  The new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll shows a 22-point edge for Democrats on the generic congressional ballot test among likely voters.  The new Gallup poll for USA Today, which finds voters "more focused on national issues than in any previous congressional election," has the generic at 13 points among likely voters.  The new Washington Post/ABC poll, the headline for which is that Republicans are bleeding support among independents, shows Democrats with a 13-point edge among adults.

Today is one of three days this week that President Bush hits the road to campaign for GOP candidates (the White House just added campaign events for Saturday).  He heads to Florida to talk more about the economy and to raise money for the Republican in the toss-up race to replace Senate nominee Katherine Harris, and for his party's national committee.  Laura Bush, who's the Administration's universal donor on the campaign trail, capable of going anywhere to help anyone, headlines events for Republicans in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. 

The joint press conference in Baghdad with US Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad and Gen. George Casey, and the testimony of Rep. Tom Reynolds before the House Ethics Committee in the Mark Foley probe, keep those two unfavorable storylines for Republicans -- including the intraparty dissent on both -- front and center.  NBC's Mike Viqueira reminds us that Reynolds has said that he reported to his "supervisor," Speaker Dennis Hastert, last spring when he heard of the "over friendly" e-mails from Mark Foley to a House page.  Hastert says he doesn't recall such a conversation.  Reynolds' re-election prospects appear to have recovered somewhat from the blow they took when his knowledge of Foley's inappropriate behavior was first revealed.  The House Ethics Committee heard yesterday from Hastert chief of staff Scott Palmer and from a top Reynolds aide.

Some GOP strategists we know were expecting Democrats to revive the ghost of Social Security reform right before the elections, but they may not have been expecting the President to serve it up.  Bush told CNBC's Maria Bartiromo yesterday that his Social Security reform plan is "very much alive," and he hasn't given up on private accounts.

And it's all politics, all the time on MSNBC again today from 9:00 am till 6:00 pm, with hours anchored by NBC Nightly News anchor Brian Williams, Meet the Press moderator Tim Russert, MSNBC's Chris Matthews, NBC's Andrea Mitchell, David Gregory, and Campbell Brown.  NBC and MSNBC correspondents will report from states hosting key races around the country.  Interviews during the day will include Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman and Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean (not together); GOP Sens. Elizabeth Dole and Jim Talent (MO); Democratic Senate candidates Ned Lamont (CT), Claire McCaskill (MO), and Harold Ford (TN); Texas gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman (I); and NBC political analyst Charlie Cook and MSNBC analyst Chuck Todd.

Got calendar? 

The White House is now bristling at the "stay the course" label for their position on Iraq as much as Democrats do at "cut and run" -- except that as the Washington Post points out, Bush has actually used the phrase "stay the course." 

Flexibility is the Administration's new name of the game.  Bloomberg reports off the White House briefing yesterday that they have "dropped the phrase 'stay the course' from discussions about Iraq...  Communications strategists working with House Republicans circulated a three-page memo... that advises candidates to stress those same points," and "suggests Republicans highlight past statements by military and administration officials that show that the U.S. is adapting to changing military conditions and requiring Iraqi police and security forces to take a more prominent role." 

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld acknowledged yesterday that the Iraqi government is making "projections" for the future of the country, but said there won't be any penalties for the government if they fail to meet those projections, per NBC's Courtney Kube.  Rumsfeld called these discussions between Khalilzad, Casey, and the Iraqi government "a way ahead," so that the government "can have a set of tasks that they need to do to get prepared to assume the responsibility for governing their country and for providing security."  He added that there will not likely be a specific date attached to the projections, but rather a "spread of two or three months" in which the Iraqis hope to meet certain milestones. 

The AP follows up on the blog posting by Pat Tillman's brother, a former Army Ranger, who scathingly criticizes the Administration on the war.  

The Heritage Foundation will host what they're billing as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's "first major policy address" since returning from Asia tomorrow in Washington.

Presidential contender and Sen. Joe Biden (D) co-authors a Wall Street Journal op-ed with the president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations in which the two basically propose a solution for the bipartisan Iraq Study Group to recommend, with an eye toward winning acceptance on both sides of the aisle. 

 

The AP on Bush's economic push: "White House advisers, who think the president should get more credit for recent positive economic news, insist that Mr. Bush isn't trying to change the subject away from the unpopular war.  The president will continue to talk about Iraq and the war on terrorism...  White House political director Sara Taylor said that the economy is a key issue in about two dozen House races, including campaigns in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Ohio and Washington state." 

Channeling First Read, the New York Times observes that Republican candidates don't seem to be getting any traction from an economy that by many measures is performing well.  "The economy is virtually nowhere to be found among the campaign ads of embattled Republican incumbents fighting to hold onto their House or Senate seats.  Nor is it showing up as a strong weapon in the arsenal of Republican governors defending their jobs from Democrats." 

Still, "Republican strategists are confident that there is enough time remaining in the mid-term campaign to refocus voter attention on the strength of the economy," says the Financial Times. 

House Republicans are pressing ahead with their argument that a "Pelosi majority," a/k/a a "San Francisco majority," would result in higher gas prices because, they charge, of Pelosi's past support for gas taxes.  Bush and Vice President Cheney keep talking about higher taxes generally with a Democratic majority.  But Bloomberg says the markets aren't biting.  "The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a record last week even as polls showed that Democrats are increasingly likely to take over at least one house of Congress.  Investors are banking that a Democratic victory will mean political stalemate with [Bush] rather than passage of an anti-business agenda."  Also, despite GOP warnings that Democrats will roll back the Bush tax cuts, most of them, "including reduced rates on capital gains and dividends, don't expire until 2011.  To roll them back before then, Democrats would have to overcome a certain veto by the president, which requires a two-thirds vote of each chamber to overturn." 

"Republican strategists are quick to point out that a superior GOTV operation is unlikely, on its own, to salvage races in which their candidate is trailing by even as little as 3 points," Roll Call says.  "But for those races in which the Republican is within 2 points or less, they argue that an effective ground game could be the difference between victory and defeat.  And they believe their superior turnout operation may help them overcome a sense among pundits that the Republican base will be depressed on Election Day, literally and figuratively." 

Some Senate Republicans aren't sharing the wealth with needier colleagues, the Washington Times says. 

(Liberal bloggers are nagging safe Democratic lawmakers to do the same.)

The Washington Times writes up the White House's change of heart in favor of having a public signing ceremony for the border fence bill, now scheduled for Thursday.  The White House formerly "had appeared reluctant to tie itself so publicly to the enforcement-only measure," but "Republicans in Congress had demanded a public signing, with leaders saying the bill is a major accomplishment that will help their re-election prospects." 

The Los Angeles Times observes that the Republican party's broad effort "to draw Latinos and blacks into the Republican Party... is in danger of collapse amid anger over the immigration debate and claims that Republican leaders have not delivered on promises to direct more money to church-based social services...  The disaffection comes as Republicans face a challenge in building enthusiasm for the upcoming election among white evangelicals and other conservatives...  Taken together, the unhappiness among these groups could threaten GOP hopes of minimizing losses in" the midterms "and may undercut the party's goal of keeping the presidency in 2008." 

Election day is two weeks away, the Chicago Tribune says, "but thousands of Americans already have cast their ballots…  The proliferation of early voting, in some states more than a month before Election Day, is having its most profound impact on campaigns in the crucial final weeks." 

The Republican National Committee has e-mailed supporters with a link providing them with information on how to request and cast absentee ballots.

The folks at electionline.org are releasing a report today predicting widespread problems at the polls because of new voting laws and new equipment, all exacerbated by partisan rancor. 

 

Roll Call's Stuart Rothenberg predicts a wave bigger than what we saw in 1994 based on the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll and the fact that "the problems hounding Republican Congressional candidates... are far more challenging than anything Democratic Congressional candidates faced in 1994."

The Washington Post defines a wave election as when "citizens in disparate parts of the country decide in the same year to reject an unusually large number of candidates for Congress from one party and to replace them with candidates from the other party." 

The San Francisco Chronicle notes how both CALIFORNIA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and opponent Phil Angelides (D) have pounced on a GOP House candidate's threatening letter telling Latinos to stay home on election day.  Schwarzenegger, who has been criticized in the past for making racially insensitive remarks, called the action a "hate crime" and called for the candidate's resignation from the race.  Angelides, meanwhile, made statements to the press from the steps of a courthouse, flanked by Latino activist and officials.  

The FLORIDA governor's race might be falling into the "toss-up" category, according to a new poll that shows Democrat Jim Davis behind Republican rival Charlie Crist by just 2 points.  "Nearly every other poll has showed a double-digit gap," reports the Miami Herald. 

The New York Times examines this rarity for the midterms: the few vulnerable Democrats, like GEORGIA Reps. Jim Marshall and John Barrow, who are trying to hold onto their jobs.  

In IOWA's competitive open House race, the GOP House campaign committee's spending has plummeted, the Des Moines Register writes.  The paper doesn't say why, but it's possible that national Republicans are giving up on the seat. 

The Washington Post front-pages a long profile of the anti-Washington, Washington native MARYLAND GOP Senate nominee Michael Steele.  Also, Michael J. Fox has cut a TV ad promoting embryonic stem cell research for Steele's Democratic opponent, Ben Cardin.  The ad "bears witness to the actor's unmistakable decline and harnesses that physical degeneration into a political message."

The Chicago Tribune notes how Fox is endorsing Democrats across the country. 

The Wall Street Journal looks at how the MASSACHUSETTS governor's race reflects retiring GOP incumbent Mitt Romney's fledgling presidential bid. 

Could the race be turning -- dare we say -- positive?  Lt. Gov Kerry Healey (R) has chided campaign volunteers for picketing outside the home of Deval Patrick (D) and has launched a positive ad.  "The tone is in sharp contrast to the attack ad that her campaign began airing last week, which uses dark images and grainy footage showing a woman walking in a dark garage to her car.  The voice-over describes Patrick's past support of a convicted rapist...  Healey's apology for the demonstrators and her new ad, coupled with an upcoming poll expected to show Patrick in a solid lead, has prompted speculation among political strategists and elected officials that Healey and her advisers are seeking to tone down the harsh rhetoric and buff up her image." 

NEW YORK GOP Senate nominee John Spencer told MSNBC yesterday that contrary to what the New York Daily News reported, he never called Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) "ugly."

The Columbus Dispatch notes that outside groups have spent nearly twice as much on the Senate and House races in OHIO than in any other state.  "Federal Election Commission totals through Thursday show that the national political parties and independent organizations have financed a $25.2 million advertising blitz in Ohio's federal races." 

In PENNSYLVANIA, Terri Schiavo's former husband blasted Bob Casey (D) for using his wife's death as a weapon against Sen. Rick Santorum (R), who objected to removing Schiavo's feeding tube.  "'What gives Casey the right to use my wife's case against Santorum when he would have voted the same way?' asked Schiavo."  More: "Schiavo made clear that he was no fan of Santorum's, saying the senator came 'down to the hospice in his limousine' to attract attention." 

The RNC's TV ad criticizing Democratic Senate nominee Harold Ford in TENNESSEE, which hints at interracial dating,  "is drawing charges of race-baiting, with critics saying it contradicts" Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman's apology to the NAACP last year for the party's Southern strategy.  Ford's GOP rival has called for the ad to be pulled.  "But the ad has continued to run - and on Monday the [RNC] was unapologetic." 

The Republican congressional candidate Laura Bush campaigns for today in WISCONSIN faces a Democrat who's now in trouble for using a slur against Native Americans. 

Romney's supporters are trying to temper fallout from a Boston Globe report that his camp was trying to come up with a way to build a network of Mormon supporters for a possible presidential bid by getting the church involved.  One of Romney's supporters is taking blame for the "mess," saying that details of the meetings between Romney's camp and religious leaders were overblown. 

GOP Sen. John McCain's stance on the Iraq war is isolating him from his party and could hurt his chances in 2008.  The Boston Globe writes that by "establishing himself as perhaps his party's biggest Iraq hawk has increasingly isolated McCain within the GOP ranks, and could harm his 2008 presidential prospects if the war remains as unpopular as it is now, political analysts say." 

And more Obama-mania!  The New York Times covers Obama's meeting yesterday with the American Society of Magazine Editors, where he "created a little sunlight on Monday between himself and both Bill and Hillary Rodham Clinton."  For one thing, he announced he did inhale as a youth (compared with Bill Clinton's famous announcement to the contrary).  And, despite showering plenty of praise on Hillary, he said they had "'different assessments'" about the wisdom of going into Iraq. 

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Fifteen days until election day, it's gotten tough to find a novel angle as the GOP limps toward the finish line for a variety of widely accepted reasons.  The party had hoped to campaign on the broader war against terrorism, but a string of recent events, including a spiking US death toll for October, have focused voters' attention on the unpopular war in Iraq and caused party unity to fray.  White House efforts to focus on positive developments in the economy are either overshadowed by events abroad or met with skepticism by voters who aren't feeling the effects.  Having failed to pass significant ethics and lobbying reform measures all year, Republicans have no means to shield themselves from the latest series of scandals afflicting some of their members and sidelining their top leaders.

As business and government strategist Billy Moore (D) points out, the time remaining for Republicans to change the subject "has all but run out.  Early voting and excuse-free absentee balloting, which together will account for half the votes cast this year, has begun in many states and will open in most states this week."  The question is whether Democratic party organizations are working the early vote hard to take advantage of a political climate that may ease up a bit for Republicans over the next two weeks, barring further bad news.  Meanwhile, the GOP faces the prospect of an unmotivated base and/or alienated independents, and their usual financial edge has been blunted by Democrats' strong late fundraising. 

Recent polls show Republicans losing to Democrats on the generic congressional ballot test by margins that are significantly wider than the margins by which Democrats trailed Republicans in October 1994.  Leading nonpartisan analysts like Stuart Rothenberg and NBC's Charlie Cook are predicting a GOP loss of at least 20 House seats.  GOP strategists and recent polls now suggest that four Senate seats -- in Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island -- are probably gone.  If so, Democrats would need to win two more among a pool of three -- Missouri, Tennessee and Virginia -- and hang onto all their own seats to retake control of that chamber.  The latest round of MSNBC/McClatchy Senate polls will be released Tuesday morning. 

And with a job approval rating below 40%, President Bush's ability to help his party's vulnerable members and competitive candidates has been severely curtailed, as his schedule this week shows.  He spends two days on the trail and otherwise fills his time with ceremonial events like today's photo ops with US astronauts and with the King and Queen of Spain.  He also takes another stab at highlighting the economy today by visiting a bank and giving CNBC's Maria Bartiromo an interview.  Laura Bush, by comparison, has campaign events every day this week, often several in a day.  Tonight she raises money for Sen. George Allen of Virginia.  Later this week, she'll visit Connecticut, Pennsylvania, New York and Indiana, among others -- all states with handfuls of vulnerable GOP candidates.

The latest Newsweek poll shows Democrats leading Republicans on the generic ballot test by 55% to 37% among likely voters and Bush's job approval rating at 35% among adults.  Bush advisor Dan Bartlett said on TODAY this morning that Bush has a history of winning very close elections after being written off by pundits in Washington.  Vice President Cheney told Time that he's "optimistic that we're going to hold both the House and the Senate," and that he doesn't think the Mark Foley scandal hurt GOP candidates "generally."  The scandal is now largely off the front pages, though some of Speaker Dennis Hastert's top staffers are expected to testify before the Ethics Committee this week. 

And even as Democrats anticipate taking control of at least one chamber of Congress, Democratic Sen. Barack Obama's admitted change of heart on running for president, as voiced on yesterday's Meet the Press, keeps the 2008 presidential race front and center.

Got calendar? 

US troop fatalities have hit 83 for October, "the highest monthly toll this year.  The pace of U.S. deaths could make October the deadliest month in two years," the AP says.  "The outcome of a White House meeting Saturday among Mr. Bush and his top security and military officials could become clearer early next week when Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, and Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, are scheduled to conduct an unusual joint news conference in Baghdad." 

Bush repeated on ABC yesterday what he has said before (but not this close to election day) -- that he sees the United States remaining in Iraq well past his presidency. 

The Financial Times says of various Sunday-show appearances, "Leading Republicans and the Bush administration... projected a deepening sense of disarray over Iraq, as they argued with each other over the current state of affairs and the way forward." 

Pat Tillman's brother Kevin, a former Army Ranger who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, last week "wrote a scathing indictment of the war in Iraq, the Bush administration and American apathy" on the website Truthdig.com. 

The New York Times front-pages how Bush has become the "optimist-in-chief" when it comes to the midterms.  "In lobbying shops and strategy firms around town, the latest Republican parlor game is divining whether the White House optimism is staged, or whether Mr. Bush and his political team really believe what they are saying."  

The Los Angeles Times' Brownstein on Sunday wrote that by practicing the politics of polarization throughout his presidency, Bush has left himself "very little margin for error" when it comes to getting the party base out to win elections.  "His approval rating since mid-2005 has rarely reached 45%, and he is now limping into the midterm election with support in most surveys below 40%." 

Vice President Cheney headlines a closed-press fundraiser for the Republican National Committee at a private home in Greenwich, CT.

Karl Rove filled in for Sen. John McCain (R) at a fundraiser for endangered Rep. Tom Reynolds (R) on Friday night and "used his speech to road-test new lines of attack on the Democrats," per Sunday's Washington Post.  "The basic themes -- that voters face a stark choice between the parties on taxes and terrorism -- have been a Bush standard.  But Rove, who once claimed liberals preferred 'therapy' to war against terrorists, delivered them with an acerbity not seen from his boss." 

The Sunday Washington Post reported on more inappropriate e-mails from Foley to a former page, and confirmed four new pages with whom Foley stayed in touch after they left the program, though no one "interviewed for this article could cite any instance in which Foley had sex with" one.  "Based on the interviews with pages, who spanned most of Foley's dozen years in the House -- and interviews with parents and former program employees -- the congressman's behavior went unchecked because he operated within accepted norms of the program's culture." 

/www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/21/AR2006102101050.html">Conservative columnist Robert Novak argues that the State Department bureaucrat whom then-White House political director Ken Mehlman allegedly ousted at Jack Abramoff's request "was a notorious political operative inside the Clinton administration."  Novak writes that the charge against Mehlman "typified the standard October surprise" and was pushed mainly by House Government Reform ranking member Henry Waxman.

The Sunday Los Angeles Times reported that a company headed by President Bush's brother Neil, and in which his parents have invested, "is benefiting from Republican connections and federal dollars targeted for economically disadvantaged students under the No Child Left Behind Act."  The act "provides federal funds to help school districts better serve disadvantaged students and improve their performance, especially in reading and math.  But Ignite," Neil Bush's company, "does not offer reading instruction, and its math program will not be available until next year...  Neil Bush said in an e-mail to The Times that Ignite's program had demonstrated success in improving the test scores of economically disadvantaged children.  He also said political influence had not played a role in Ignite's rapid growth." 

Covering recent belt-tightening at news organizations, the Washington Post's Kurtz notes, "It's striking how many of the major probes involving members of Congress were launched because of news accounts...  Real investigative reporting, as opposed to the what-happened-yesterday stuff, is time-consuming, risky and expensive.  And as one news organization after another sheds staff in this tough financial climate, it's worth considering what aggressive journalism has produced lately." 

Key economic developments this week will include a Fed meeting, the release of the latest GDP figure, and new earnings and housing data, advises CNBC's Patti Domm.  The automakers report earnings this week, as will Boeing.  CNBC's Steve Liesman says we're "in neutral here," as far as the Fed in concerned, "unless the data convincingly breaks one way or the other."

The RNC is running a new Web ad -- directed by David Zucker of "Airplane!" and "Naked Gun" fame -- which hits Democrats on taxes.  "If Democrats take over Congress, they will raise taxes by $2.4 trillion to keep up with their reckless spending…  So maybe the question isn't 'Can you afford more of this?' But 'can you afford more of them?'" 

Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is staying on the sidelines, adhering to a tradition that those in his post don't engage in such blatantly partisan work, "much to the chagrin of Republicans battling to retain control of Congress," per Bloomberg.  "With Paulson on the sidelines, Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez and Labor Secretary Elaine Chao have been the most active economic officials stumping for Republican candidates." 

The Los Angeles Times again covers the still-expanding pool of competitive House seats.  "Democratic strategists believe that if the party can break into this second tier of Republican-leaning districts, they could greatly increase their odds of building a majority large enough to survive for longer than two years...  In a measure of the party's growing optimism, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee plans to announce Tuesday that it will begin airing advertisements in 11 new districts...  Though both sides agree that many of these districts are growing more competitive, in most cases Democrats still face an uphill climb to reach 50%." 

The Sunday Washington Post profiled Democratic House campaign committee chair Rahm Emanuel, noting that he may have mismanaged the expectations game because of the now widespread assumption that his party will retake the House, and explaining how he lost part of a finger. 

The Washington Times says Republicans are still expected to have a superior voter turnout operation. 

USA Today points out that "[f]or the first time since 1994, Democrats are poised to surpass Republicans in the number of state capitals where one party enjoys complete political control - holding the governor's mansion and both chambers of the state legislature," which will give them an advantage in redistricting. 

The Wall Street Journal profiles the ALASKA governor's race, in which the Republican nominee with comparably little political experience still leads the state's best-known Democratic politician, a former governor.  The Journal says her "main campaign theme of taking a tough stance on ethics is clearly resonating with many voters." 

In CALIFORNIA, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) said over the weekend that GOP House candidate Tan Nguyen should withdraw from his race if he knew his campaign was sending letters intended to threaten immigrant voters.  In a press conference yesterday, Nguyen said he's innocent and there's "no way in hell" he'll withdraw.  "Nguyen maintained that the letter was sent without his knowledge.  But he added that, after firing the staffer he said was responsible for it, he was asking her to return because he believes the mailer was fair." 

USA Today takes its turn writing up senior GOP Reps. John Doolittle and Richard Pombo's Jack Abramoff-induced vulnerability. 

In CONNECTICUT, Democratic Senate nominee Ned Lamont has now funneled $12.7 million of his own money into his campaign. 

Previewing tonight's debate in the FLORIDA Senate contest between Rep. Katherine Harris (R) and Sen. Bill Nelson (D), the Miami Herald relives the train wreck that is Harris' campaign.  

The New York Times reports on the toss-up contest between Rep. Clay Shaw (R) and challenger Ron Klein (D).  Shaw is playing up his seniority in Congress, while Klein tries to tie him to Bush, Iraq, and the Medicare prescription-drug plan.  "Mr. Shaw's district, to his detriment, borders that of former Representative Mark Foley… in a news market that is especially saturated with reports of Mr. Foley's sexually explicit e-mail messages to Congressional pages."  The Miami Herald says this race is the second-most expensive House race in the country. 

The Des Moines Register writes up the final debate between IOWA gubernatorial candidates Chet Culver (D) and Jim Nussle (R), during which Nussle accused Culver of planning to reinstate controversial lottery machines if he wins.

The Boston Globe profiles MINNESOTA House candidate Keith Ellison (D), who could become the country's first Muslim member of Congress.  Ellison "is poised to arrive in Washington at a time of acute tension between Muslims and the US government over treatment of Muslims at home and abroad.  His Republican opponent, Alan Fine, backed by conservative bloggers across the country, charges that Ellison's past association with the Nation of Islam -- and support he has received from another group that some say is affiliated with terrorist organizations -- should raise red flags for voters." 

Turning to NEW JERSEY, the New York Times profiles the Republican who has the best chance of winning a Democratic-held Senate seat: Tom Kean Jr.  "...[B]ehind that toothy overbite of a grin is a man who even some Republicans say can be too accommodating and cautious, leaving the impression that he wants to avoid offending anyone for the sake of future political positioning." 

GOP Senate candidate Bob Corker in TENNESSEE has distanced himself from a recent national party ad that accused Democrat Harold Ford "of taking money from pornographers, and... hinted at interracial dating." 

The Senate contenders in VIRGINIA are battling for women voters, among whom the latest Washington Post poll shows they're virtually tied. 

The Washington Post front-pages the prospect of an Obama presidential run and predictions that he would immediately become one of the top rivals of Sen. Hillary Clinton (D).  "Party strategists said that, if voters are looking for change in 2008, Obama would symbolize it better than many of the other possible candidates.  But having served just two years in the Senate and seven in the Illinois state Senate, Obama has a thin résumé upon which to build a presidential candidacy." 

The New York Times says Obama's declaration "sent ripples through Democratic circles."  More: "One Democratic strategist close to Mr. Obama who spoke on the condition of anonymity suggested that the senator would probably look to the results in Tennessee, where Representative Harold E. Ford Jr. is trying to become the state's first black senator, to measure the obstacles Mr. Obama might face in a national election." 

In case you missed Obama on Meet the Press, you can watch it online.

The Chicago Tribune: "The 'Meet the Press' appearance capped a weeklong span of intensive publicity, ostensibly about the publication of his second book, 'The Audacity of Hope,' but what in fact seemed more like a long run-up to articulate his presidential ambitions, winning him publicity that would cost others millions of dollars to generate." 

The weekend Wall Street Journal looked at the variety of ways in which McCain has used the tough election year for Republicans to lay the groundwork for a presidential bid.  ht

With Gov. Mitt Romney (R) traveling to California today, the Boston Herald publishes a trio of stories about his inattention to his governing duties (leaving his second-in-command Kerry Healey with the reins), where's he's been over the past few weeks, and who he's raising money for on the road.   

"Despite repeated denials by the Mormon Church and [Romney's] advisers, e-mails from a key Romney consultant state that the leader of the worldwide church was consulted on an effort to build Mormon support for the governor's potential presidential bid and that a key church leader has been involved in mapping out the plan," reported the Sunday Boston Globe.  "...[S]ome tax specialists have suggested the activity by church and university leaders could violate federal restrictions." 

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
A bitter fight has erupted between Republicans and Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee. The short story: The GOP chairman, Pete Hoekstra, has suspended the security clearance of a Democratic staffer and commenced a probe into allegations that the staffer leaked that now-famous National Intelligence Estimate that asserts Iraq had become a "cause celebre" for terrorists. At issue is the timing of the leak. Republicans say the staffer in question asked for a copy of the secret document three days before it showed up in the New York Times.
  
Democrats are beside themselves with anger. They say that, first, "hundreds" of staffers and members had access to the NIE since last May. Second, they say, this is clearly retaliation on Hoekstra's part for the Democrats' release earlier this week of a committee report alleging that disgraced Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham (R) directed some $70 to $80 million in intelligence contracts to his cronies in return for things of value. A Republican source on the committee says that is nonsense, and that this is simply a national security concern over an illegally leaked document. "The timing is what it is," the source says. "It merits some kind of review."

Democrats say that the staffer in question, whose name was outed on another network but is not being printed here, has served in both Republican and Democratic administrations. "The only thing wrong with him is that he works for [ranking member] Jane Harman," a top Democrat source says. "It's fundamentally unfair."

From CNBC's Steve Liesman
MIDLAND, TX -- Anecdotal evidence suggests President Bush's support is lagging in his hometown. An assortment of oilmen and other businesspeople and civic leaders used words like "disappointed" to describe their feelings about Bush's presidency, citing deficit spending, the Iraq war, and the Foley scandal as causes. 

They expressed little support for Democrats, but their lack of enthusiasm for Republicans and the President echoed concerns of GOP leaders that the base could just choose to stay home this November.

Another measure of residents' feelings: Former Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev, in Midland to give a speech before a packed house of 4,000, got applause after making some critical remarks about the Administration, including a comment that the Iraq war was a mistake. One of the loudest rounds of applause came when Gorbachev said Bush seems OK -- but the problem is the entourage he has surrounded himself with.

From NBC's Mark Murray
As a new Quinnipiac poll shows Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) leading Democratic nominee Ned Lamont, 52%-35% (with GOP nominee Alan Schlesinger at 6%), the Lamont campaign has unveiled a brand-new TV ad featuring Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd (D), which it hopes will begin narrowing the race.  In the ad, Dodd narrates, "People want change... We need need a new direction and I think [Lamont] can help us there."

Meanwhile, Lieberman's campaign manager just released a statement on Lieberman's lead in the poll. "It shows that the people of Connecticut are tired of all the finger-pointing and name-calling, and that they are responding to our positive agenda for change in Washington. But one thing we can agree on with the Lamont campaign is that in the end, the only poll that really matters is on Election Day."

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Eighteen days out... As Republican leaders welcomed a 12,000+ Dow, it occurred to us that the upcoming midterms could mark the fourth consecutive election in which the economy isn't the predominant factor.  In 2000, despite having overseen perhaps the greatest economic expansion in US history, the party occupying the White House lost it.  The elections during George W. Bush's presidency have centered on national and homeland security: In 2002, during a recession and other economic problems caused by the September 11 attacks, Bush's party gained seats, and in 2004, Bush won re-election despite the fact that there was no real net job creation during his first term in office. 

In 2006, if Democrats sweep Republicans from power in one or both chambers of Congress, it will happen at a time when the Dow is near or at a record high; when gas prices have dropped; and when the unemployment rate is a fairly low 4.6%.  CNBC's Patti Domm advises that the next milestone is the intraday high of 12,049. 

The prevailing issue of national security worked in the GOP's favor in the two previous elections.  But a series of negative developments -- the National Intelligence Estimate, the Woodward book, escalating violence against US troops, and now the Caldwell comments (below) -- have focused that debate not on the broader war against terrorism as the party would prefer, but on the unpopular conflict in Iraq.  And the Iraq war has consistently beaten "jobs and the economy" as voters' top issue in recent NBC/Wall Street Journal surveys.

Bush and Republicans are doing their best to turn voters' focus away from events abroad and onto recent positive developments in the economy, including the Dow, the price of gas, and Bush's success in halving the deficit -- based on inflated projections -- ahead of a schedule.  These efforts may have reaped some success.  Amid mostly ominous results for the GOP in the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll is one positive note for Bush: a three-point uptick in his job approval rating on handling the economy. 

But as one NBC/Journal pollster, Bill McInturff (R), said of our latest survey, "Americans sometimes don't pause to give you credit.  They move on to what they're concerned about."  Another reason why the GOP's efforts may find only limited success is because many Americans continue to base their views of the economy not on the Dow, but on wages that aren't keeping up with inflation, on the cost of health care, and/or on the value of their homes -- indicators that aren't faring as well these days.

So Republicans are reinforcing their platform of favorable stats with efforts to draw contrasts with Democrats on taxes, making the Bush tax cuts, and key Democrats' opposition to extending them, a primary talking point of these final weeks of the cycle.  House Majority Leader John Boehner recently fired off a press release noting, "Dem tax hikes dangerous for American families and the US economy."  And, in what seems like a pretty big stretch, they're also trying to create an issue by accusing House Minority Leader (and possible incoming Speaker) Nancy Pelosi of having a secret plan to raise gas prices. 

As NBC's Mike Viqueira points out, that was a question posed by Speaker Dennis Hastert in a press release yesterday: "...Democrat (sic) Leader Nancy Pelosi voted for higher gas taxes at least five times.  Does Democrat Leader Nancy Pelosi have a secret plan to raise gas prices on hardworking American families should Democrats take the majority?"  The release, which cites five previous Pelosi votes, is part of the new Republican PR campaign in which House GOP leaders are citing a litany of what they consider to be all the horrors that will perpetrated under a Pelosi-run House. 

Bush today headlines a luncheon fundraiser for his party's Senate campaign committee at a hotel in Washington.  He also has another domestic policy event, a roundtable on his Medicare prescription-drug law, and an event with representatives of groups that support the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Got calendar? 

 

The chief US military spokesman in Iraq said yesterday that the effort to end the insurgency in Baghdad has fallen short and that "the United States is rethinking its strategy" to end the violence there, the AP says.  Also yesterday, the military announced the deaths of three US troops, "raising the death toll for October to 74" and keeping the month "on course to be the deadliest for U.S. forces in nearly two years."  Vice President Cheney tells Time magazine that "we're not looking for an exit strategy." 

A New York Times analysis says this leaves Bush "with some of the ugliest choices he has yet faced in the war" -- he can order another arrangement of US troops, he can redefine what "victory" means, or he could deploy more troops to Iraq.  "But whatever choices he makes… will be forced by a series of events, in Iraq and at home, that now seems largely out of Mr. Bush's control, in Iraq and at home." 

The messages coming from Republicans in Washington on whether or not there will be a change of course in Iraq are getting even more mixed.  As Bush and Cheney continue to insist at campaign events and in interviews that US troops are staying put, the Washington Post reports that "growing doubts among GOP lawmakers" and "the prospect of Democratic wins" next month will soon force the Administration to "abandon its open-ended commitment" in Iraq.  Possible options include dividing Iraq "along regional lines," "a gradual withdrawal of troops over a set period of time," and/or "a dramatic scaling-back of U.S. ambitions." 

The Washington Times writes up how the White House is distancing itself from reports that it hopes for a "course correction." 

Bush talked so tough on staying the course in Iraq at his fundraiser for GOP Sen. George Allen last night that Allen afterward "seemed to distance himself" from some of the rhetoric, the Post also says. 

The Los Angeles Times observes that GOP incumbents and candidates across the country -- even in red states -- are beginning to break with the Administration on the war. 

For example, per the Houston Chronicle: "Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison said in a televised debate Thursday night that if she had known in 2003 that Saddam Hussein did not harbor weapons of mass destruction, she would not have voted to go into Iraq 'the way we did.'" 

Cheney, who parachutes into Indiana to make remarks at a rally for the state Air and Army National Guard, reasserted in an interview with a South Bend radio station yesterday that "there are connections" between al Qaeda and Iraq.  "Mr. Zarqawi, who was the lead terrorist in Iraq for three years, fled there after we went into Afghanistan.  He was there before we ever went into Iraq.  The sectarian violence that we see now, in part, has been stimulated by the fact of al Qaeda attacks intended to try to create conflict between Shia and Sunni."

Democratic Reps. John Murtha and Ike Skelton, who is the ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee, will hold a press conference call today "to discuss a letter sent by House and Senate Democratic Leaders and ranking members from the key national security committees about the continued deterioration of the security situation in Iraq and lack of an effective plan for improvement," per the release.

The Republican National Committee is putting its stark new web ad on CNN and FOX starting this weekend.  Titled "The Stakes," the ad seeks to flat-out scare people into voting Republican.  It features images of Osama bin Laden and other known Islamic terrorists, along with quotes from them threatening attacks on the United States.  The only audio is the sound of a ticking clock, which gets louder as the web ad reaches its conclusion with images of gun-toting terrorists and explosions.  "What is yet to come will be even greater."

 

The Washington Post says Bush and other party officials will spend this final stretch focusing on turning out conservatives by unnerving them with the prospect of national tax and security policy under a Democratic majority.  Some Republicans fret that the effort won't be enough to turn the tide.  "The mood among most GOP strategists -- with the exception of Rove and a few others -- is decidedly downbeat."  One tells the Post that "roughly a dozen" House seats are already gone. 

Bush not only appeared with Rep. Don Sherwood in his Pennsylvania district yesterday, but the Sherwoods -- congressman, wife and daughter -- were brought on board Air Force One via the back steps so that the family could make the big descent down the front steps with Bush, the pool reporter noted.  This was done, beyond the obvious reason, because the Sherwood campaign had a camera crew president shooting footage for a campaign ad.  A recent Sherwood spot features him apologizing to viewers for having an affair. 

The Washington Post's Milbank, like First Read yesterday, seems to wonder if the philandering Sherwood and controversy-plagued Allen are among the few Republican candidates eager to appear publicly with the President. 

The New York Times calls yesterday's twin fundraisers Bush's "Double Trouble Tour." 

The Chicago Tribune is the latest to write about how Bush's image is dotting the political landscape -- and not in a positive way.  "Bush's face has appeared in ads from coast to coast.  But it is Democrats who have dragged Bush into the campaign in a bid to portray Republicans as 'rubber stamps' for the White House and a vote for the GOP as a vote for the Bush agenda.  Many Republicans, meanwhile, have sought to distance themselves from the president."