Bloomberg looks at the logistical challenges confronting Republicans in their efforts to retain the seats of resigned Reps. Mark Foley and Tom DeLay.  What the article doesn't say is that both districts are Republican-leaning, so if the party loses these seats next month, then presumably they could win them back next cycle. 

Leading with House Appropriations chair Jerry Lewis, the Wall Street Journal examines how it has become routine for "House members to accept meals from private interests on official government trips abroad," even though it's against House rules. 

More ethics drip-drip on Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), who's up for re-election this year: The Chicago Tribune reports that Blagojevich's wife "earned more than $113,000 in real estate commissions this year through a woman who holds a longstanding, no-bid state contract and whose banker husband has business pending before state regulators." 

Former top White House procurement official David Safavian, who was convicted in June of lying to investigators about his dealings with Jack Abramoff, will be sentenced today in federal court.  NBC's Joel Seidman reports that prosecutors are seeking a three-year prison term in Safavian's case, the first guilty verdict by a jury in the influence-peddling probe surrounding Abramoff.

Tomorrow, Laura Bush campaigns in New York, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania.

En route from Michigan to Washington last night, Karl Rove appeared in the press area of Air Force One bearing a tray of chocolate-covered caramels that he'd purchased during Bush's earlier stop at a candy store.  Per the pool report, "He was asked for his November 7 report.  'Victory, victory, victory,' he said, flashing a two-finger 'V' sign and smiling.  Then he said, 'I'm here as the candyman, not the prognosticator.'"

Looking to gin up the base while in Iowa yesterday, Bush commented on the New Jersey gay marriage decision at a fundraiser for House candidate Jeff ("Dave") Lamberti: "Yesterday in New Jersey we had another activist court issue a ruling that raises doubts about the institution of marriage.  I believe that marriage is a union between a man and a woman and I believe... I believe it's a sacred institution and it's critical to the health of our society and the well being of families and it must be defended."

The Los Angeles Times, reporting on Bush and former President Clinton both being on the stump yesterday, said the New Jersey decision "provided a fresh opportunity" for Bush "to speak to the heart of a cultural issue that motivated many conservative voters who had propelled him and other GOP candidates to victory in recent years - but whose enthusiasm for Bush and his party has been lagging, according to some polls."  Clinton, meanwhile, struck back at GOP criticism of Democrats over Iraq. 

House Government Reform ranking member Henry Waxman's report on taxpayer-funded agency-head travel, which we reported yesterday, prompts the Washington Post to look at all the stumping Bush Cabinet officials have been doing for GOP candidates lately. 

"Death of a President," the controversial, fictitious account of an assassination of President Bush, is hitting theatres. 

ExxonMobil and Shell scored huge quarterly profits again, but even though some Democratic lawmakers issued written statements expressing outrage, with gas prices so much lower, the public isn't seething like they used to.

A Wall Street Journal analysis shows that "[m]ore than one-quarter of top corporate political donors have stepped up their giving slightly to Democrats, in an apparent effort to hedge their bets...  While the percentage of new giving isn't large, it represents unexpected cash for the Democrats in a year when they have managed to stay financially competitive with, or surpass, their Republican adversaries." 

The Boston Globe looks ahead at the possibility of Rep. Barney Frank (D) as House Financial Services chair, which has top Republicans on offense against Frank.  "Beneath the very public sparring between Frank and Republicans, however, is evidence that the powerful industries that Frank would oversee as financial services chairman are falling over themselves to praise the 66-year-old from Newton -- perhaps mindful of the power he may soon have over them.  At the same time, Frank is seeking to cast Democrats as being friendly to the banking and insurance industries." 

USA Today has a bunch of stories about the vote.  On early voting: "State officials report that in-person early voting appears up before the elections Nov. 7...  Election officials and voting experts say it's unclear whether the jump in early voting reflects a high degree of voter enthusiasm or is an extension of a gradual increase since 1980...  In 2004, about 22% of the vote was cast early, either in person or by absentee voting by mail...  No early voting totals are available for the last midterm election in 2002." 

The paper also rounds up potential issues with new voting equipment and laws.  "Three in every 10 voting jurisdictions in the USA are using new equipment, up from 9% in 2004.  More than 20 states are using paper trails for the first time, which produce printouts of voters' choices.  Dozens of states have new voter registration and identification requirements.  About 1.2 million poll workers and tens of thousands of technicians are still being trained to open the polls before daybreak, set up and maintain the machines, and work up to 15-hour shifts." 

The New York Times says Democrats fear that some African-American -- and thus Democratic -- voters might not turn out at the polls this year because of disillusionment with the election process.  "'This notion that elections are stolen and that elections are rigged is so common in the public sphere that we're having to go out of our way to counter them this year,' said Donna Brazile, a Democratic strategist." 

A new Pew poll shows Democrats with a 50%-39% advantage in the 40 most competitive House races across the country, per McClatchy.  "Potentially more troubling for Republicans: They lead only 44 percent to 42 percent in all other Republican-held districts, which went heavily for President Bush in 2004." 

The San Francisco Chronicle says that same-sex marriage bans likely will be approved overwhelmingly in five states -- Idaho, Virginia, South Carolina, South Dakota, and Tennessee -- after the New Jersey court ruling this week.  Polls show many of these constitutional bans passing, and historically, polls have grossly underestimated the yes-vote of similar bans in other states. 

The Boston Globe says that per some analysts, the ruling could "prompt a Republican backlash and push conservative voter turnout...  While opinion polls have indicated that loyal Republican voters are disillusioned this year, most oppose same-sex marriage, and the issue might help motivate them."  Still, "other analysts doubted that the heated gay marriage debate can trump other issues -- like the Iraq war, the economy, and political scandals -- that have turned public opinion against the GOP." 

In the increasingly competitive MARYLAND Senate race, Democratic nominee Ben Cardin "last night skipped an NAACP-sponsored debate in Charles County, Md., a day after [he] stammered and stumbled during a faceoff with the Republican nominee, Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele," who is African-American.  His campaign cited a scheduling conflict. 

A new Boston Globe poll shows that MASSACHUSETTS Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) trailing her opponent Deval Patrick (D) by 25 points in the governor's race.  Though the margin is similar to polls taken earlier this month, "the perception voters have of [Healey] has turned increasingly negative, despite the millions of dollars -- almost all of it her own money -- that she has put into television advertising promoting herself and attacking him."  More: "Healey's strategy to make crime a central issue in the campaign has succeeded, with 63 percent of the respondents saying crime is a very important issue.  But, in an unexpected twist, Patrick was viewed as a more effective crime fighter than Healey."

Presidential candidate and retiring Gov. Mitt Romney (R) made a "rare" appearance for Healey yesterday, at which he warned voters that Patrick is a "'Mike Dukakis liberal'" and that "critical decisions will be made behind closed doors."

In NEW JERSEY, a New York Times/CBS poll has Sen. Bob Menendez (D) and Tom Kean Jr. (R) virtually tied among likely voters -- with Menendez at 40% and Kean at 39%. 

The AP reports that the RNC will not pay for TV ads in OHIO during the last week of the campaign.  And Bloomberg reports on the killing field (as some in Washington are starting to call it) that Ohio is expected to become for Republicans between the governorship, Senate race, and (at least) three House districts.

Sen. Hillary Clinton rallies in RHODE ISLAND with Senate candidate Sheldon Whitehouse (D).

Profiling VIRGINIA Senate nominee Jim Webb (D) (having profiled Allen yesterday), the Washington Post looks at some of his writings based on his military experience, including his criticism of the concept of women in combat, and how they reflect Webb's complicated attitudes toward the military in which he served. 

Allen consultant Chris LaCivita issued a statement this morning that Webb "has extolled his experience as a writer and novelist" during the campaign...  But has anyone really read some of things he's written?  Some of the references are simply disturbing and continue to show a pattern of disrespectful treatment toward women.  Webb's novels portray women as servile, subordinate and promiscuous - and assign his female characters base, negative characteristics."  LaCivita also argued, "It seems Senator Allen, regardless of the validity of an allegation, is held to a different standard -- a standard that with just a little scrutiny, Jim Webb can't pass."

USA Today looks at the importance of women and minority voters in the state. 

From NBC's Mark Murray
The ad war in Tennessee's toss-up Senate race continues -- with a brand-new TV advertisement by Harold Ford Jr.'s (D) campaign, which directly responds to 1) the Republican National Committee's controversial ad suggesting interracial dating and 2) another RNC ad charging Ford for supporting gay marriage and wanting to "give the abortion pill to our schoolchildren."

The Ford ad begins with an announcer stating: "The ads for Corker attacking Harold Ford? Despicable. Rotten. Lies." And then Ford speaks: "I'm Harold Ford, Jr. ... and now they've attacked my faith ... said I'm for gay marriage when I voted against it ... for giving schoolgirls abortion pills... all of it lies. Here's what I believe... in God, in you, and a new direction."

From NBC's Kevin Corke and Tammy Kupperman
DES MOINES, IA -- President Bush, speaking today at a function here for congressional candidate Jeff Lamberti (R) -- whom he twice referred to as Dave -- just criticized yesterday's court ruling in New Jersey, which said that gay couples are entitled to the same rights as heterosexual couples, but left it to the state legislature to determine whether their union should be called marriage or something else.

"We believe marriage is a fundamental institution of civilization," Bush said. "Yesterday in New Jersey we had another activist court issue a ruling that raises doubts about the institution of marriage. I believe that marriage is a union between a man and a woman and I believe -- I believe it's a sacred institution, and it's critical to the health of our society and the well being of families, and it must be defended."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
With President Bush signing into law today the authorization for the 700-mile fence along the border, there's some disagreement among Republicans in Congress over just how much it's going to cost. The House Appropriations Committee, whose responsibility it is to count and (especially) spend money, estimates that the fence will cost in the neighborhood of $9 million a mile, which would put the total cost of the barrier at $6.3 billion. They base their estimate on what it had cost to build the existing fence near San Diego.

The House Homeland Security Committee, however, disputes that figure. They say the fence will cost only $2 to 4 billion. So if we call it $3 billion, that puts the per mile charge at $4.3 million. The committee bases this figure on an "internal estimate." Whatever the case, keep in mind that the measure that Bush signed today does not "pay" for anything. It merely "authorizes" -- i.e. gives permission -- for the fence to be built. So far Congress has put down only $1.2 billion in real cash to pay for actual construction.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Twelve days to go...  President Bush's day starts off with a ceremonial, politically loaded bill-signing.  The Secure Fence Act of 2006 authorizes a 700-mile fence along the Mexican border.  Earlier this month, distracted House Republicans missed their chance to tout Bush's signing of the bill that provides a down payment on the fence because it happened in the immediate aftermath of the Mark Foley scandal.  Clearly, they're determined not to miss a second chance to promote their work on an issue which has great appeal to the party base. 

They're also not missing a chance to motivate their base by firing at House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi.  Speaker Dennis Hastert said yesterday in a written statement about his potential successor, "Pelosi has NEVER visited the border.  She claims to understand the needs of those on the front lines but has never visited those agents and offers no solutions."  As Republicans across the board attempt to demonize Pelosi, bear in mind that the mid-October NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed Pelosi was recognized by 57% of those surveyed and of those, 18% had a neutral opinion, 14% viewed her positively, and 25% viewed her negatively.  (Mark Foley, on the other hand, was recognized by 83%; 69% viewed him negatively.)

A Pelosi aide tells First Read that she actually has visited the border with Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D).  Reyes is a former Border Patrol official who may be in line to chair the House Intelligence Committee.  A Pelosi statement yesterday noted that her visit enabled her to "see firsthand the Republicans' record of failure on border security."

Pollsters for both parties tell us that there's little sign that immigration overall is playing in GOP general election campaigns against Democrats.  Bush's willingness to sign the bill in a public ceremony also represents a concession from a President who has spent much of the year calling for comprehensive rather than piecemeal immigration reform. 

After that appeal to the base, Bush hits the trail.  His first stop is Des Moines, where he'll raise money for GOP House candidate Jeff Lamberti at the Iowa State Fairgrounds.  Per the Cook Political Report, this race isn't a toss-up -- it leans toward the Democratic incumbent.  A local paper reported yesterday that the GOP gubernatorial nominee in Iowa, Rep. Jim Nussle, will not be present for Bush's visit even though he also will be in Des Moines. 

Bush then heads onto Warren, MI for a fundraiser for Senate candidate Mike Bouchard.  A new poll for Bouchard's Democratic opponent, Sen. Debbie Stabenow, shows her beating him by 53%-35%.  Listen closely to hear if Bush alters his usual remarks about the strong US economy in this state which has a jobless rate of 7.1%.  Whether by coincidence or by design, the Detroit Free Press reported yesterday that the White House has set a date for Bush's meeting with the Big Three for sometime in mid-November; Karl Rove disclosed on local talk-radio that the meeting has been set up, but refused to give the specific date.

The White House has announced three victory rallies to be headlined by Bush on Monday and Tuesday -- in Georgia and Texas.  In what looks like a curious bit of scheduling, Bush has two rallies in Georgia in two days.  And tomorrow, Laura Bush is scheduled to head to Florida to raise money for the same House candidate Bush raised money for two days ago, Vern Buchanan, who's struggling to keep Katherine Harris' seat in the GOP fold.

Got calendar? 

 

The AP: "The U.S. military on Thursday announced the deaths of five U.S. troops in fighting in Iraq, raising to 96 the number of American forces killed this month...  The latest deaths raised to 96 the number of U.S. forces killed in October, the highest toll for any month this year and on course to surpass the October 2005 total of 96.  Before that the deadliest months were January 2005, at 107; November 2004 at 137 and April 2004, at 135." 

The Washington Post on Bush's press conference yesterday: "Bush made the unusual move of calling a second news conference in as many weeks to address the public concern, and then opened the event with a 16-minute speech, knowing television networks would carry it live."  After a reporter pressed Bush on whether or not the United States is winning the war, Bush said yes.  "Asked afterward whether Bush meant that the United States is winning in Iraq specifically or in the fight against terrorism, White House press secretary Tony Snow said: 'In Iraq.'" 

He "used "frank admissions of overestimations, underperformance and flat-out errors... to try to assuage angry voters, who by most election strategists' accounts plan to vote Republicans out of control of Congress in just two weeks," per the Washington Times. 

A New York Times news analysis notes that Bush "gambled" with his press conference "that he could rescue Republican candidates who are having a hard time defending the war and an even harder time running away from it." 

And yet, in the wake of the press conference come a handful of articles -- in Bloomberg and the Washington Post -- looking at how GOP House and Senate candidates are distancing themselves from Bush on Iraq in increasing numbers, and how what the party had hoped would be a broad, winning issue of terrorism has narrowed to Iraq and turned sour. 

In advance of Bush's press conference, the Democratic National Committee released a web ad via YouTube.  The ad notes that October is "the bloodiest month for US troops in Iraq in two years" and points out that with the election "looming," the White House has "dropped" its "stay the course" rhetoric.

McClatchy reports that Vice President Cheney told a conservative radio host on Tuesday that the Administration doesn't regard water-boarding as torture and allows the CIA to use the technique.  "'It's a no-brainer for me,' Cheney said at one point in an interview.  Cheney's comments,… appeared to reflect the Bush administration's view that the president has the constitutional power to do whatever he deems necessary to fight terrorism." 

Ted Van Der Meid testified before the House Ethics Committee yesterday.  Probably on the list of important people you've never heard of, Van Der Meid is the potential key to the question of what the Speaker's staff knew about Mark Foley's behavior with House pages and what, if anything, they did with that knowledge, reports NBC's Mike Viqueira.  As Counsel to the Speaker and director of floor operations, Van Der Meid has immense power when it comes to the day-to-day operations of the House.  His realm includes dominion over the House Clerk, who in turn runs the page program.  That's why many on Capitol Hill find it difficult to believe that Jeff Trandahl, who was Clerk at the time of the first allegations about Foley, would not have alerted Van Der Meid.  In fact, a source close to Trandahl says that the former Clerk, who testified last week, has said that's just what he did whenever complaints about Foley arose -- he took them to Van Der Meid.

Lawyers for Foley have announced that he "has been an inpatient" at the Sierra Tucson treatment facility in Arizona, NBC's Jim Popkin reports.  Popkin notes that since Foley began his 30-day treatment on October 1, he could conceivably be released from the Tucson facility this coming weekend.  However, his lawyers' language leaves open the possibility that he may not still be there.  The lawyers write that he "has been an inpatient" -- not that he is one currently.

The New York Times reports that the liberal, pro-gay rights Human Rights Campaign fired an employee who, acting anonymously, "had created the Web site that first published copies of unusually solicitous e-mail messages to teenagers from former [Foley], which led to his resignation." 

Roll Call covers the "patchwork of probes" that are the Justice Department's investigations of members of Congress, which have sprouted all over the country.  At least 17 members of the 109th Congress have come under investigation, the paper says.  And in another story, the paper notes how Republicans are frustrated and suspicious of the number of probes that have sprung up lately.

Former Cheney chief of staff Lewis "Scooter" Libby has a pre-trial hearing today in the CIA leak case.  US District Judge Reggie Walton must decide if a memory expert will be one of the witnesses allowed to appear at trial for Libby's defense, NBC's Joel Seidman reports.  Libby's attorneys want to admit the expert testimony of Dr. Robert A. Bjork, chairman of UCLA's psych department.  Bjork's testimony may shed some light, according to Libby's court filings, on why the pressure of his White House job "could have easily caused him to confuse or misremember minor details of conversations about [former Ambassador Joe Wilson's] wife and her job at the CIA - topics Libby did not consider significant at the time."  Libby is charged with five felony counts; his trial is scheduled to begin on January 15.

 

The Republican National Committee's controversial TV ad criticizing Tennessee Senate nominee Harold Ford (D) has come off the air.  Per MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Jennifer Yuille, an RNC aide said yesterday that the ad had "run its course," rejecting the suggestion that they pulled the ad because of political pressure.  A new ad is being rotated in.  The new spot calls Ford "Tennessee's most liberal Congressman.  He campaigns in a church, but took cash from Hollywood's top X-rated porn moguls.  Ford talks values.  But voted to recognize gay marriage.  Voted for taxpayer-funded abortions 12 times.  And wants to give the abortion pill to our schoolchildren."  On Imus this morning, Ford tried to use the controversy over the first ad to cast doubt on the charges in the new one.

Though off the air, the ad still gets front-page treatment in the New York Times: "Critics asserted that the advertisement was a clear effort to play to racial stereotypes and fears, essentially, playing the race card." 

NBC's Chris Donovan reports that on Wednesday's broadcast of The 700 Club, Pat Robertson criticized the ad: "If you're like me, I'll be so glad when this thing is over, and all this mudslinging.  You turn the TV on, and one after the other, you know, this one is that, and that one's the other, and it's just unbelievable.  But that one (laughing) in Tennessee was probably over the top, but the Republicans are grabbing for it, and so are the Democrats."

The ad featuring a debilitated Michael J. Fox asking voters to support Democratic Senate candidates because they favor expanded stem cell research "has touched off an unusual war of celebrity sound bites against the backdrop of the World Series," says the Los Angeles Times.  After a Fox ad for Missouri Senate nominee Claire McCaskill aired during Game One, "opponents of the measure rushed to assemble their own celebrity commercial.  The 60-second spot, due to air during Game 4..., features the Cardinals' starting pitcher, Jeff Suppan. (The game was postponed Wednesday due to rain and is now scheduled for tonight.)" 

The Des Moines Register reports that Fox will campaign on Monday for Iowa gubernatorial nominee Chet Culver (D). 

  

A new Gallup poll for USA Today asks voters to envision life with a Democrat-run Congress.  Strong majorities expect "a timetable to withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq" and an increase in federal income taxes.  Channeling yesterday's First Read, analysts tell the paper that "Democratic leaders would need to take care not to overreach." 

Bloomberg talks to Democratic strategists about what they see as "their party's key to victory: Making the election a referendum on [Bush], his supporters and the war in Iraq, rather than about local concerns and individual races between candidates."  Democrats aren't offering a "detailed agenda.  Even some Republicans think specifics might no longer be needed."  

The Los Angeles Times looks at the "phalanx of unusually conservative Democratic candidates who may deliver crucial victories over GOP incumbents and help their party win control of the House," and suggests it belies Republican claims that a Democrat-run Congress would be a bastion of liberals.  The story also suggests that having "so many conservative-leaning candidates at the forefront of the Democratic effort" is one reason why Pelosi "has... stuck to a minimalist agenda that steers clear of grand, liberal ambitions."  More: "With more conservative Democrats in the House, President Bush could have a new opening to reach across the aisle.  But so far, he shows no signs of preparing to do so." 

The Wall Street Journal looks at how the migration of non-Southerners to Southern and Border South states is "raising Democratic hopes that some parts of the South may no longer be as monolithic in their support of the Republican Party and may be more accepting of African-American candidates."  Zeroing in on Ford, of course, the story notes, "The real test will come on Nov. 7.  Polls have often shown African-American candidates scoring well in the polls only to fail to clinch the election." 

House Government Reform ranking member Henry Waxman yesterday released an analysis showing that Bush Cabinet officials have taken 125 trips to over 300 locations aboard private jets, helicopters, and other aircraft at taxpayer expense.  Waxman urged Bush budget director Rob Portman "to impose a moratorium on this luxury travel."  "The total cost to the taxpayer of the travel aboard private aircraft by cabinet secretaries and agency heads since 2001 is more than $1.5 million," per the release.  Waxman's announcement, of course, comes right when Bush Cabinet officials are again being deployed to campaign for GOP candidates in the midterm elections.

Bush budget director Rob Portman gives the Financial Times an interview in which he says a Democratic takeover of Congress would threaten the US economy because it "would jeopardise efforts to contain government spending, put upward pressure on taxes and undermine ­America's ability to negotiate free trade agreements...  However, he said he was hopeful that the two parties could come together for a serious attempt to reform Social Security and Medicare after the election, regardless of who won."  And he "warned voters against assuming that [Bush] could veto all extra spending proposals." 

The Houston Chronicle examines the Republicans' vaunted GOTV operation.  "The election results will show whether the GOP machine is powerful enough to overcome what many polls show to be low public ratings of Bush's performance, the war in Iraq and the performance of Republican majorities in the House and Senate." 

A new e-mail solicitation from RNC chair Ken Mehlman blasts a "Kerry/Kennedy bid for liberal control of Congress."

The New York Times on the gay marriage decision in New Jersey: "The New Jersey court did not go as far as Massachusetts, which in 2003 became the first state to permit gay marriage.  Instead, it could be considered the new Vermont, which created civil unions for gay couples in 2000, in the politically, legally and culturally charged world of same-sex marriage."  More: "[B]y issuing a nuanced and complicated 90-page ruling that left observers struggling to declare who won and who lost, the court may have neutralized gay marriage as an issue in the Nov. 7 elections." 

The Chicago Tribune: "After setbacks this year in state courts in New York, Nebraska, Washington and Georgia, gay-marriage advocates greeted Wednesday's decision with relief…  Opponents of gay marriage said the New Jersey court had shown the same judicial arrogance as the Vermont and Massachusetts courts."

USA Today lists the eight states with same-sex marriage bans on the ballot this fall. 

 

The New York Times says several candidates across the country -- both Republican and Democrat -- "are showing signs of strain, uttering words they later wish they could take back, running last-ditch advertisements that push the envelope and taking other actions that are out of the political ordinary…  'It is definitely the funny season,' said Ed Rollins, a longtime Republican strategist...  'All these Republicans who thought they were in safe seats have seen their numbers drop dramatically.  They are freaked.'"  

Campaign ad spending could hit "a record $2 billion in spending this year, $300 million more than in 2004, when there were both congressional and presidential elections," Bloomberg reports.  "Republicans, Democrats and outside groups have accelerated spending since" the Foley scandal broke and became the catalyst for an even more competitive election cycle than expected. 

Democratic National Committee chair Howard Dean rallies with CALIFORNIA gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides in Los Angeles.  The latest poll by the Public Policy Institute of California has Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) leading Angelides by 18 points.  "Schwarzenegger appears headed for re-election by a landslide -- even though California voters strongly believe Democrats are better suited to handle key issues like the economy, the Iraq war, immigration and the environment." 

Sen. Hillary Clinton and Rep. Charlie Rangel host a brunch for House candidate Tim Mahoney, who's seeking to replace Foley in FLORIDA.

In MARYLAND's tight gubernatorial contest, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley (D) has refused to release a copy of his state bar application, "a document that requires disclosure of any arrests and court proceedings in which applicants have been involved," after reports "that O'Malley (D) had been charged with -- but found not guilty of -- driving under the influence of alcohol in 1987, when he was a 24-year-old law student at the University of Maryland." 

And in the Senate race, the Washington Times looks at how African-American Democratic leaders are declining to attack GOP Senate nominee Michael Steele.  Steele told the paper earlier this week that he supports full voting rights in Congress for the District of Columbia 

In advance of Bush's visit there today, Bush looks at the governor's race in MICHIGAN, which is turning on the state's struggling economy and which side is to blame for it, as USA Today observes. 

The New York Times covers the decision by the GOP Senate campaign committee to spend $3.5 million in NEW JERSEY in the final 12 days of the campaign.  "The new push in New Jersey reflects the state's status as the Republicans' great hope this year. Mr. Menendez's Senate seat is the only one now held by a Democrat that Republicans in Washington believe they can steal away." 

The four candidates in the MASSACHUSETTS gubernatorial race met for their third debate last night, yielding fiery exchanges between Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) and Deval Patrick (D).  Healey who is trailing Patrick by the double-digits "appeared tired at times, but asked aggressive questions of Patrick."  Meanwhile, Polly Klaas' dad spoke out against Patrick yesterday.  Per the Globe, Klaas said Patrick's "advocacy on behalf of convicted rapist Benjamin LaGuer makes him 'philosophically unqualified' to be governor."

Former President Clinton campaigns with Democratic House candidates at events and rallies in his adopted home state of NEW YORK, where his wife is hoping to bring lots of Democrats along with her in her sweep on election day.

And the Washington Post front-pages a long look at VIRGINIA Sen. George Allen's attitude toward race and evidence suggesting that his sensitivities have both evolved and not evolved over the years.  Allen and his campaign declined to provide interviews for the story. 

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Next on the list of important people you've never heard of is Ted Van Der Meid, currently behind closed doors at the House Ethics Committee. Van Der Meid is the potential key to the question of what the Speaker's staff knew about Mark Foley's behavior with House pages and what, if anything, they did with that knowledge.

As Counsel to the Speaker and director of floor operations, Van Der Meid has immense power when it comes to the day-to-day operations of the House. His realm includes dominion over the House Clerk, who in turn runs the page program. That's why many on the Hill find it difficult to believe that Jeff Trandahl, who was Clerk at the time of the first allegations about Foley, would not have alerted Van Der Meid. In fact, a source close to Trandahl says that the former Clerk, who testified last week, has said that's just what he did whenever complaints about Foley arose -- he took them to Van Der Meid.

Remember: the Speaker's office asserts that no one on the staff, including Van Der Meid, had any awareness of Foley's conduct -- lewd, "overfriendly," or otherwise -- before the fall of 2005.

It is ironic in the extreme to see Van Der Meid now hauled before Ethics, since he has served as chief counsel to that committee in the past, most notably during the investigation of Newt Gingrich.  As one might expect from someone in his position and with his history, there are many in the House -- both at the staff and member levels -- who resent the man and would not mind seeing him take a fall.

Sens. Elizabeth Dole and Chuck Schumer, the respective chairs of the GOP and Democratic Senate campaign committees, gave differing views on this year's Senate races at the National Press Club this afternoon. Schumer said the Democratic Party has set records in fundraising this election cycle, and that the money would be used to play offense in traditional Republican states like Tennessee and Virginia. He also used Bush's "cut and run" metaphor to describe GOP incumbents distancing themselves from the administration during their campaigns. "The bottom line is, turning out Democrats to vote this year will be like pouring water downhill," he said. But he refused to predict that Democrats will take back the Senate. "It is hardly a certainty. No one on our side is breaking champagne just yet" -- although he did say he'd be disappointed if they don't pick up seats.

Dole, meanwhile, attributed the anti-incumbent sentiment solely to the "Six-Year Itch" -- the phenomenon of a second-term president's party losing seats in a midterm election. "Bush is not on the ballot," she affirmed. "While Democrats talk about Bush, our candidates will talk about their records." But will Republicans hold onto the Senate? Dole didn't say much, except: "Quality will prevail."

From MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell and Jennifer Yuille
The Republican National Committee is saying that its controversial ad against Tennessee Senate candidate Harold Ford Jr. (D) -- which suggests interracial dating between Ford and a Playboy playmate -- has "run its course" and will finish airing today. An RNC spokesperson insists that the committee isn't pulling the ad, but rather that it has just run its course.

A new RNC ad, which first began running on Sunday in Knoxville, will be rotated in its place. It goes: "Harold Ford Jr. He's slick. He's smooth. But his record? A little shaky. Ford is Tennessee's most liberal Congressman. He campaigns in a church, but took cash from Hollywood's top X rated porn moguls." More: "Harold Ford. Smooth talk. Extreme values."

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
With just 13 days left before the midterms, the under-40% President campaigns from within the White House, doing a 10:30 am press conference and a round of interviews with conservative talk-show hosts, while Laura Bush hits Minnesota and Indiana.  The White House has its best game face on.  Asked yesterday why Bush isn't doing more campaign rallies and other events, spokesman Tony Fratto replied that Bush is ahead of his event pace in 2002, but that because of new campaign finance laws, rallies cost candidates a lot of money.  Fratto had no good answer for why Laura Bush is doing so many, then.  But he argued that Bush's lack of rallies is no reflection of his popularity. 

White House officials aren't the only ones making few solid arguments these days, but Democrats only need to make one.  If they do take control of at least one chamber of Congress on election day, it will be more because Republicans lost than because they won.  How much Democrats recognize this, or not, could affect the longevity of their newfound majority. 

As in previous wave elections, to the extent that the bums really do get thrown out, voters will be rejecting what they see as an entrenched majority that has accomplished little in the past year and has appeared, through example after example, to be more interested in looking out for themselves than in looking out for the American people.  Add to that an ever less popular war in Iraq, and you wind up with a majority party that is trailing the minority in the generic congressional ballot test by double digits.  Virtually all Democrats have to do to succeed in this climate, it seems, is not be Republicans. 

They haven't done much more than that.  They gambled in not putting forth a more substantive agenda than their "Six for '06," a collection of publicly popular, long unpassed items like a minimum wage increase and federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.  They also gambled in not trying to come up with a unified position on Iraq, and it paid off.  Republicans in Washington are as divided over Iraq today as they ever accused Democrats of being.  But as Democrats themselves often point out, voters didn't favor Republicans in 1994 because of the Contract with America.

Not putting forth a more substantive agenda may have repercussions down the road, however.  After months in net negative or break-even territory, the most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows Democrats rated slightly more positively than negatively -- 37% positive, 35% negative -- by those registered voters polled, prompting our pollsters to say the party has come to be viewed as a "marginally acceptable alternative."  The more seats Democrats win simply by virtue of not being Republicans, the greater the chance that many of those seats will be rentals that they'll be hard-pressed to retain in 2008.

One mitigating factor will be if Democrats know why they won -- or more accurately, that they didn't win and that Republicans lost.  Will they think they have a mandate, as Bush claimed he had in November 2004?  Or will they see a new majority as an opportunity to earn the trust of voters? as NBC political analyst Charlie Cook asks. 

"I hope that House Democrats will internalize the lesson of 1994: don't overreach based on a midterm, 'throw the bums out' outcome.  And use 2007-2008 to bring popular bills that Republicans have traditionally opposed to the floor of the House," says business and government strategist Billy Moore (D).  "They'll need a record to take to voters in 2008 and say, 'Vote for us and our presidential nominee and you'll get these things you want.'"  As presidential aspirant and Sen. Joe Biden (D) said on TODAY this morning, "the burden's going to be on the Democratic party."

Cook predicts a GOP loss of 20-35 House seats and a loss of at least four, but "more likely" five or six Senate seats in his latest National Journal column.  The GOP House campaign committee's "Final Push List" of races for last-minute fundraising includes 27 of the party's own seats, including a few that hadn't previously been on the conventional radar, and only four Democratic-held ones.  Senate campaign committee chairs Elizabeth Dole (R) and Chuck Schumer (D) face off today at a National Press Club luncheon. 

And NBC Nightly News broadcasts tonight from Columbus, OH.

Got calendar? 

Two blow-ups over TV ads in a couple of key races could cause a problematic backlash against Republicans. 

The Tennessee Senate race has been close enough that if Rep. Harold Ford (D) wins it, nabbing not only a Republican seat but the one held by the outgoing Majority Leader, some will point to the controversial Republican National Committee ad and call it a decisive moment.  Until now, Ford has run perhaps the best campaign of any Democratic Senate candidate this cycle, positioning him to take advantage of any backlash among African-Americans that might arise over what critics call the ad's implicit racism in showing a scantily-clad blonde asking Ford to call her, conjuring up an image of interracial dating. 

RNC chair Ken Mehlman told NBC's Tim Russert yesterday that he doesn't think the ad reflects any such sentiment and that he's legally prohibited from having it pulled because the ad is paid for by an independent expenditure fund with which he can't have any contact.  Coincidentally, Mehlman is campaigning in his home state of Maryland today, where he personally recruited African-American Lt. Gov. Michael Steele to run for the Senate.

Ford told MSNBC yesterday, "I know that they are a little desperate and doing the things that you do when you get desperate in a campaign."  GOP nominee Bob Corker has called for the ad to be pulled.  (Then again, it's also possible that the ad will turn a crucial percentage of voters off of Ford.)

Today, Sen. Barack Obama (D) will send an e-mail on behalf of Ford and other top Democratic Senate candidates saying, "You know the kind of ads we're going to see in these last days.  They'll play on our fears, they'll try to divide us, and they'll try to distract us from the real issues in this race."  The e-mail solicitation will go to Sen. John Kerry's list of 3 million supporters, per Kerry's office.

And Rush Limbaugh's suggestion on his radio show yesterday that actor Michael J. Fox is exploiting and exaggerating his illness -- Fox has Parkinson's -- in TV ads for Democratic Senate candidates just isn't going to play well, even though Limbaugh has since apologized.  Fox cut the spots for a couple of Democrats because they favor federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.  The New York Times' TV critic writes about the ads, which show him swaying back and forth uncontrollably:  "Mr. Fox's display of the toll Parkinson's disease has taken on him turned into one of the most powerful and talked about political advertisements in years…  The issue of embryonic stem cell research is divisive, but Mr. Fox is not." 

USA Today: "Democrats and interest groups are using ads, campaign events and celebrities in at least 20 House, Senate and governor races to push for more federal funding for embryonic stem cell research.  Fox's dramatic ads are 'very effective' with suburban voters, seniors and parents, says Evan Tracey of the non-partisan Campaign Media Analysis Group...  'It puts the Republicans on the wrong side of hope.'" 

"U.S. officials said Tuesday that Iraq's security forces won't be able to stand on their own for another 12 to 18 months, meaning substantial numbers of U.S. forces will likely remain in Iraq through next year...  So far in October, 91 American troops have died, making it the deadliest month for U.S. forces this year."  Gen. George Casey "did not rule out bolstering the 15,000 American troops now in Baghdad." 

The Heritage Foundation hosts what they're billing as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's "first major policy address" since returning from Asia today in Washington.

Both Speaker Dennis Hastert and his deputy chief of staff testified yesterday for a combined eight hours, roughly.  Hastert's testimony about when he became aware of Mark Foley's inappropriate behavior toward pages conflicted with that of Rep. Tom Reynolds (R), who has claimed that he informed Hastert of the situation earlier than Hastert says he first was notified of it.  When he emerged from the committee rooms, Hastert said he wants the committee to find out everyone who knew about the Foley conduct.  "Who knew about the sexually explicit messages... when did they know it?" he asked rhetorically.  Translation from NBC's Mike Viqueira: Virtually every Republican member who has emerged from the committee after testifying has given a variation of the same line.  They are trying to imply that there were Democrats who knew of the explicit communications (and not just the "overfriendly" e-mails that they admit to knowing of), and that they need to be called, too. 

Here's an otherwise pretty secure GOP House member who's now on the watch list: Rep. Rick Renzi of Arizona is the subject of a preliminary probe by federal prosecutors who are looking into whether Renzi "twice pressured landowners to buy a 480-acre parcel owned by his former business partner, a major backer of Renzi's political campaign," reports the Washington Post.  "No subpoenas have been issued, and public developments are not likely before the Nov. 7 midterm elections." 

The New York Times covers Democratic Rep. William Jefferson's bid for re-election in Louisiana, where that frozen pile of cash and the specter of bribery allegations hovers over his campaign.  "Questionable financial dealings are rarely a bar to high office in Louisiana.  The culture of tolerance means that Mr. Jefferson, an eight-term congressman, cannot be counted out on Election Day, experts say."  (There are no primaries in Louisiana -- just a free-for-all on election day, with a December run-off between the two top finishers if no one gets more than 50%.)  

The Fed is expected to announce later today that it won't take any action on interest rates, but its policy statement will be scrutinized, reports CNBC's Patti Domm.  More big earnings reports are due today, including Boeing and General Motors.

A nonpartisan survey being released today will show that the "rising cost of healthcare is cutting into the ability of a growing number of Americans to save for retirement," the Financial Times reports.  "The survey, conducted by the Employee Benefit Research Institute, a non-partisan research group, said that 36 per cent of Americans have reduced the amount they salt away for retirement because of the burden of greater healthcare costs.  That figure is up from 25 per cent in 2004." 

President Bush had a sharper riff against Democrats on taxes yesterday, including this shot: "The Democrats have made a lot of predictions.  Matter of fact, I think they may be measuring the drapes.  If their electoral predictions are as reliable as their economic predictions, November 7th is going to be a good day for the Republicans."

The Washington Times reports, "So far this year, Mr. Bush has done 10 times as many closed-press fundraising events compared to 2002.  He has also not appeared at a single major Republican rally, unlike four years ago, when he did 32." 

The New York Times says there is a "certain class" of Republican candidates who want Bush at their events.  "There are those facing ethical questions or struggling to recover from gaffes.  There are those desperate for the cash Mr. Bush can bring in just by showing up for lunch.  There are those who need the president to turn out a demoralized base." 

The Hill reports that Karl Rove told Republican supporters at a Washington fundraiser last Friday "that the media was misreading the political environment s- that the combination of money and mobilization of religious conservatives could keep the House in Republican hands...  Despite evidence that voters could direct a barrage of negative public opinion against Republican officeholders on Election Day, Rove and President Bush have been upbeat, making some Democrats nervous about current predictions and worrying some Republicans." 

(Indeed, some Democrats in Washington are getting nervous about their more optimistic colleagues' exuberance, the Washington Times reports.)

The Washington Post reports on the White House's time-tested reliance on conservative voters to turn out.  "The White House courtship of the right paid enormous dividends in the past, but this year it is complicated by a far more skeptical audience than in 2002 and 2004." 

Also covering talk-radio day, USA Today notes that "the difference this year is that some conservatives, such as economist Bruce Bartlett and blogger Andrew Sullivan, have been critical of Bush policies on the war in Iraq and federal spending as elections loom Nov. 7." 

The Wall Street Journal reports from a northern suburb of Cincinnati that at least anecdotally, "Christian conservatives seem to have faith that the president is sincere" in his allegiance with them, despite the Kuo book charging that White House officials made fun of them.  "And that's what the White House is counting on, as it looks to Christian conservative voters to come out next month and at least blunt the big losses the party almost certainly will suffer." 

The upcoming New York Times magazine profiles the uniquely visible and politically engaged White House spokesman Tony Snow as he oversees the briefing room of a president who's under 40% in the polls just weeks before a critical election.