Joe Negron needs a "unique" campaign strategy to educate voters about why a vote for Foley is really a vote for him, says the Miami Herald.  Negron's "top priority is calling and sending mailings to the 17,000 voters who already have requested absentee ballots...  Negron said election supervisors should send notices to absentee ballot voters explaining that Foley is just a 'placeholder' for him." 

The Washington Times, channeling First Read, covers concerns among GOP strategists and conservatives that their "value voters" turnout will be depressed and cost them crucial margins on election day. 

The Chicago Tribune notes, "Economic conservatives had sounded their own complaints about the Republican regime earlier, angered by record congressional spending.  Some foreign policy conservatives oppose the war in Iraq as an unwise--and unconservative--attempt to remake the world.  So in several significant ways, the coalition that had once seemed so solid in fact had been cracking for the last several years."  

The AP: In "races across the country, Democrats are working to make their case for change by arguing the Foley scandal is symbolic of a Republican Party in power too long." 

Fallout from the page scandal is reverberating out West, where Democrats in Arizona are calling on 8th district candidate Randy Graf (R) to return money Hastert raised for him last month, reports the Tucson Citizen. 

Vice President Cheney headlines a fundraising luncheon today for another GOP candidate locked in an uphill battle to retain a House seat in the face of serious logistical hurdles: Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, who's waging a write-in campaign for Tom DeLay's seat.  The Houston Chronicle says her opponent, Nick Lampson (D), asked her to join him in calling for the resignation of GOP House leaders who knew about Foley's communications with teenage pages.  "She told the Houston Chronicle she is 'waiting for the investigation to unfold.'" 

President Bush campaigns today for Rick Renzi (R) in Scottsdale, AZ, who's pretty secure, and for struggling gubernatorial nominee Bob Beauprez of Colorado before ending his three-day Western swing.  As we suggested he would yesterday, "Bush tried to focus voters on the fight against terrorism Tuesday...  He told cheering Republicans at a $400,000 breakfast fundraiser in Stockton that Democrats would raise their taxes and 'cut and run' in Iraq.  Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid of Nevada issued an e-mailed response that despite Bush's talk about being 'tough,' Republicans have put national security at risk by bungling Iraq and ignoring warnings of the 9/11 attacks five years ago." 

The New York Times writes that, tucked away in the military spending bill for the past year, was a provision providing $20 million to celebrate victory in Iraq and Afghanistan.  "Not surprisingly, the money was not spent.  Now Congressional Republicans are saying, in effect, maybe next year.  A paragraph written into spending legislation and approved by the Senate and House allows the $20 million to be rolled over into 2007." 

In the CALIFORNIA governor's race, the Los Angeles Times says, one of the main debates is a "squabble over how much of a Republican [Gov. Arnold] Schwarzenegger really is - and whether voters should care." 

About 300 people will pay $1,000 each to attend Bush's fundraiser for Beauprez in COLORADO today.  The Medill News Service says that "[b]ringing in the president is a calculated risk Beauprez and other candidates are taking.  Despite Bush's sagging popularity, he remains a powerful force for Republican coffers." 

A poll of CONNECTICUT's hottest House race between moderate GOP Rep. Chris Shays and Democrat Diane Farrell shows Shays leading Farrell 44%-40%. 

In their first debate, the candidates facing off for IOWA's most competitive House seat -- Mike Whalen (R) and Bruce Braley (D) clashed over the Iraq war.  Braley said Iowans no longer support the war and suggested troop withdrawal, while Whalen predicted such a move would only create chaos in the Middle East. 

Last night's MARYLAND Senate debate offered striking contrasts on Iraq and other issues and few niceties between the two major-party contenders, while the hotly contested gubernatorial race is focused right now on who has better crime-fighting credentials in Baltimore.   and

Bloomberg takes the latest look at how a loss in NEW JERSEY might keep Democrats from retaking the Senate, and saying that it that happens, the party may blame Gov. Jon Corzine (R) for picking Menendez to fill his Senate seat. 

Bloomberg also notes that Republicans in NEW YORK are "risking their first complete shutout" from statewide offices "since 1938."  (We'd note that that's some legacy for GOP presidential candidate and Gov. George Pataki.) 

The latest revelation from Woodward's new book: that Bush, in 2004, referred to OHIO gubernatorial candidate Ken Blackwell (R) as a "nut."  But the White House is denying Bush ever said that, the Columbus Dispatch writes. 

In the PENNSYLVANIA Senate race, the state Supreme Court has rebuffed Green party candidate Carl Romanelli's bid to get on the November ballot.  "The ruling, in a one-sentence order, was good news for the Bob Casey campaign, which had feared that Mr. Romanelli's presence on the ballot would siphon votes from the Democrat.  For the same reason, it was a blow to Sen. Rick Santorum." 

Sen. Hillary Clinton's appearance in VIRGINIA yesterday for Senate nominee Jim Webb (D) was intended to help Webb court women voters, says the Washington Post.  "The Senate candidates' views toward women have become a central character issue of the campaign.  [Incumbent George] Allen, who has had problems with questions about his racial sensitivity, has sought to shift attention to Webb's opposition 27 years ago to women in combat." 

A new WNBC/Marist poll shows Rudy Giuliani leading the GOP pack nationally with 23%, followed by Condoleezza Rice with 20% and McCain at 15%, after which comes the rest of the pack.  Giuliani also beats Sen. Hillary Clinton, the far-and-away favorite to win the Democratic nomination, in a general election match-up by seven points.

Speaking of New York mayors, "Mayor Bloomberg isn't the only person who doesn't think he should run for President," writes the New York Daily News, which notes how the new poll "indicates that Bloomberg would get clobbered if he were to run against Clinton and Giuliani.  Bloomberg said yesterday that he is not interested in running for the White House, he would rather 'spend the next three years cutting ribbons on projects.'  The poll also found that 30 percent of voters nationwide are not likely to support a woman nominated by either major party." 

The Manchester Union Leader reports that Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is adding "58 Granite Staters" to his PAC's New Hampshire steering committee.  They represent "a cross-section of social conservatives, law enforcement officials and activists." 

And Gov. George Pataki (R) has opened a PAC office in New Hampshire, the first potential presidential candidate to do so.  Pataki who has also opened a similar office in Iowa, insists that he doesn't have his eye on the White House. "'This is about '06,' he said.  'It really is.'" 

From NBC's Huma Zaidi
It's only been a few days since the story broke, but the scandal involving former Rep. Mark Foley is making its way into campaign advertisements already. Patty Wetterling, the Democratic candidate for Minnesota's 6th Congressional District, released a new television ad today criticizing House GOP leaders for the manner in which they have handled the Foley situation. According to the ad, Wetterling is calling for a criminal investigation into the matter and the "immediate expulsion" of any lawmaker involved.

It's not surprising that the first ad released referencing the scandal is coming from Wetterling. In 1989, her 11-year-old son was abducted and has never been found. Wetterling has spent much of her time since then acting as an advocate for children's issues and is the founder of the Jacob Wetterling Foundation, named for her son. The organization focuses on educating people on how to prevent the exploitation of children.

The Cook Political Report currently puts this race in the Lean Republican category.

From NBC's Ken Strickland and Mike Viqueira
Moderate Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee says House GOP leaders found to have been involved in a cover-up of the actions of former Rep. Mark Foley "should step down." Chafee is one of his party's most vulnerable Senate incumbents on the ballot this year. 

At this time, no House Republican has come forth and suggested the same. But there is more daylight between Hastert and top lieutenants over what they reported to him last spring on the Foley matter. Last night, Hastert told NBC in an interview that the first he learned of the Foley e-mails -- any Foley e-mails -- was last Friday, the same day Foley resigned. "I have to say that I don't recall anyone telling me about 'em. I heard about them the same time (as the more salacious e-mails) on Friday afternoon."

Last night in Buffalo, Rep. Tom Reynolds said that when he heard about the e-mails in the spring, he reported it to Hastert. Citing his sexual harassment training, he said, "I was educated to take to the supervisor... the Speaker of the House is my supervisor."

And this morning on local radio at home in Cincinnati, Majority Leader John Boehner reported that he did the same. "I believe I talked to the Speaker and he told me that it had been taken care of."

President Bush says he was "dismayed," "shocked," and "disgusted" to learn of former Rep. Mark Foley's behavior.  Still a senior Bush Administration official says, "We believe [Speaker Dennis] Hastert is getting a hold of the situation. No indication that he plans to step down. The President supports him." House Majority Leader John Boehner, meanwhile, has sent a letter to the Washington Times editorial board denouncing their call in this morning's edition for Hastert to resign over his handling of the Mark Foley scandal.

The perception had been building that Boehner and House GOP campaign committee chief Tom Reynolds are trying to distance themselves from Hastert. Boehner told local Cincinnati radio that the Foley scandal is Hastert's to deal with ("It's in his corner. It's his responsibility"). Last night, Reynolds had a presser back home in Buffalo where, surrounded by children of supporters, and with his voice at times quavering, he said once again that he had told Hastert of the first batch of e-mails way back in the spring.

Hastert and aides are said to be making calls to other GOP members and others, touching base and gauging support. The Washington Times editorial came after a House GOP Conference call last night on which members, especially social conservatives and politically vulnerable members, expressed displeasure at the scandal and the way it has been handled. Social conservatives as a whole are said to be livid.

This spells trouble for Hastert. Yes, he is beloved by House GOP rank and file for his unassuming and personable style. Republican aides and others who are have spoken to Hastert staff this morning, and others who are close to Hastert, say that they cannot imagine that he would step down -- or imagine any members of the House GOP calling for his head. But with an election coming that could mean the end of the GOP majority in the House and the base so upset that they may stay away from the polls, Hastert has some work to do to buck up Republican voters and get this behind him.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Five weeks out...  Just shy of eight years ago, a fellow Republican's personal scandal launched Rep. Dennis Hastert to the Speaker's post.  Now Hastert faces the prospect of his tenure being ended by another member's personal scandal and his own difficulties in managing it.  L'Affair Foley could be another nail in the coffin of the GOP's House majority, as NBC political analyst Charlie Cook says.  Democratic candidates for the House and Senate attacked their Republican opponents yesterday for fundraising and other connections to the resigned Congressman.  And, Hastert might be compelled to heed calls from conservatives, now including Washington's second most prominent newspaper, that he resign over his handling of the scandal.

As we wrote yesterday, the Foley scandal conveys a politically risky sense of entitlement among the majority party just weeks before election day.  Even now, as they try to contain the scandal, Republicans aren't involving Democrats.  Rep. Dale Kildee, the sole Democratic member on the House page board, decried changes to the page program that were made by Republicans yesterday, on which he was not consulted: "...once again, the House Republican leadership is following the same pattern of unilateral decision-making that caused this problem in the first place." 

It also has the potential to deflate the party's base and to undermine any efforts by GOP candidates to play the moral values card over the next five weeks.  Even before the scandal broke, social conservatives were reportedly dismayed by how little of their agenda the majority acted on this year.  On moral values now, in addition to government spending and growth, conservatives may see Republican leaders as having lost their moorings. 

And, the scandal also has GOP leaders giving conflicting accounts of who knew what and when, putting them at risk of being discredited and making them look as though they weren't aware of what was going on in their own ranks.  Rep. Tom Reynolds (R), chair of the House GOP campaign committee, who himself faces a tough challenge to his re-election bid, had to distance himself from Hastert over the weekend by saying he told Hastert what he knew of Foley's e-mails to pages.  Reynolds held a news conference in his Buffalo district last night to repeat as much.  Laura Bush, who's heading to Buffalo tomorrow to raise money for him, now has a radio interview about youth issues on her schedule.

Is this a good time for President Bush to be raising money for two Republican House members who have ties to Jack Abramoff, along with other ethical issues?  Both Reps. Richard Pombo and John Doolittle also intervened in a federal probe of a big campaign contributor.  Still, Bush raises money for them in California today.  On the one hand, the presidential stops may be unfortunately timed given the release late last week of a House committee report detailing how Abramoff and his lobbying associates had 485 contacts with the White House from January 2001 to March 2004.  On the other hand, the fact that the White House saw fit to schedule these back-to-back events at all reflects how this particular scandal has faded as an issue since the lobbyist had his perp walk in January. 

Meanwhile, the Bush Administration is on an eerily parallel track with House Republicans in trying to manage fallout, including conflicting accounts, over Bob Woodward's book.  President Bush will try to regain some momentum on the war on terror today.  Per White House spokesperson Dana Perino, he'll use some new language in his speeches today in an effort to highlight "the differences in approach and philosophy in fighting the global war on terror," Perino said.  Bush will try to draw attention to Democratic "infighting and contradictions," as Perino suggested, over last week's votes on the NSA warrantless surveillance and detainee trial and treatment legislation.  "The Democrats say they share the goal of fighting the war on terror aggressively but their votes in the House and Senate tell a different story," Perino said.  We may hear him use the "cut and run" line again.

Bush also headlines a $1.3 million, closed-press fundraiser for the Republican National Committee in Los Angeles before heading to Scottsdale, AZ for the night.

Got calendar? 

NBC's Mark Potter reports that Foley attorney David Roth said of Foley at a news conference yesterday, "He is absolutely, positively not a pedophile."  Roth also said Foley is an alcoholic in his private life, not in public, and that Foley never had any inappropriate sexual contact with a minor.  Per Roth, as of yesterday afternoon, they had not been contacted yet by the FBI or other law enforcement agencies.

Foley could become a casualty of a federal law he helped create, notes the Miami Herald.  In "an ironic twist, federal laws championed by Foley himself make it a crime in some circumstances to use the Internet to persuade, induce or entice someone under 18 to engage in sexual activity."

Foley's interest in younger men didn't come as a surprise to some on the Hill: "In interviews with the Los Angeles Times, several current and former congressional employees and others said they recalled Foley approaching young male pages, aides and interns at parties and other venues." 

One former page tells the Palm Beach Post that he and other pages were not explicitly warned about Foley's behavior. 

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi will be in Florida today for Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz (D), whose district isn't far from Foley's.  A Pelosi aide suggests to First Read that the Leader will say more of what she's been saying about the Foley affair, asking why more wasn't done to protect House pages and calling for House GOP leaders to face the ethics committee.

A memo from the GOP House campaign committee touts Foley's replacement, state Rep. Joe Negron, and asserts in boldfaced type that Negron "will certainly have the weight of the local, state, and national Republican Party structures behind him over the next 36 days," and that "we are confident the voters will opt for the political experience and the legislative record of Joe Negron."  But the memo does not get into any details about how the GOP will try to help Negron overcome the obstacle of not having his name on the ballot -- and having to ask people to vote for Foley in order to elect him.

The New York Times notes that Majority Leader John Boehner has basically conceded Foley's seat to the Democrats.  "'To vote for [Negron], you have to vote for Mark Foley,' Mr. Boehner said on a conservative radio program hosted by Sean Hannity.  'How many people are going to hold their nose to do that?'" 

"Negron admits he needs to spend well into the 'low millions' to win the race and tell people that a vote for Foley on the ballot is really a vote for him," reports the Herald.  "And, he said, voters will know that he's no Mark Foley." 

"Resign, Mr. Speaker," is the headline on the Washington Times editorial which reads, "Mr. Hastert has forfeited the confidence of the public and his party, and he cannot preside over the necessary coming investigation, an investigation that must examine his own inept performance."  The ed board nominates retiring Rep. Henry Hyde to replace him because his "Mr. Hyde would preside over the remaining three months of the 109th Congress in a manner best suited for a full and exhaustive investigation until a new speaker for the 110th Congress is elected in January." 

Richard Viguerie, "a founder of the conservative movement, called for the 'immediate resignation of any House GOP leaders who had knowledge of... Foley's improper contact with underage pages -- but who took no action.'  Mr. Hastert told reporters yesterday that he had been unaware of sexually explicit messages sent by Mr. Foley but had been told about previous, less sordid, messages in which the congressman asked a teen boy what he wanted for his birthday and whether he could provide a photograph of himself...  The explanation did not convince Mr. Viguerie." 

The Wall Street Journal editorial page gives no quarter to Foley and says the leadership handled the situation poorly, but also notes, "Some of those liberals now shouting the loudest for Mr. Hastert's head are the same voices who tell us that the larger society must be tolerant of private lifestyle choices, and certainly must never leap to conclusions about gay men and young boys." 

Hastert gave an interview to NBC yesterday.  Some highlights:
NBC: "Is the implication that your political enemies, Democrats, have leaked these (communications) out in order to affect the election?"
HASTERT: "It's a crazy season, it's a political year.  People are talking about all kinds of things that may happen.  I don't know. I have no idea and I would not conjecture that."
NBC: "The White House spokesman, Mr. Snow, termed these as 'nasty little e-mails'...  Your reaction?"
HASTERT: "I think they're more than nasty little e-mails.  I don't know if he read them or not, but they were very suggestive and should have been acted upon if we had known about it.  These were the ones in 2003..."
NBC: "Sir, were you aware that it's been reported that pages were routinely told to stay away from Mr. Foley, over the last four years?"
HASTERT: "No, I wasn't aware of that."
NBC: "A prominent conservative, Michael Reagan, the son of the former President, suggested today that you resign.  I wonder what your reaction to that is?"
HASTERT: "Well, I mean, what I've tried to do -- it's easy to call for -- put blame on somebody and try to solve problem.  The fact is I'm trying to solve the problem...  In my tenure here as Speaker, what we've done is try to protect the pages...  We're trying to prevent these types of things from happening.  You know, I guess this could have happened on almost anybody's watch but -- you know -- I've done the very best I can to protect these kids..."
NBC: "So, you're saying unequivocally: no cover-up on the part of Republicans and yourself?"
HASTERT: "There's nothing to cover up here.  We did -- we found out about this issue last November as I remember.  That was what the report was -- the report that we put out.  Our staff went forward and identified the Clerk of the House to this congressional office.  They were looking for direction.  That was what we did.  We got the head of the page board to do exactly what they wanted -- what the family wanted them to do -- we complied with their wishes.  We didn't ever -- my understanding is at request of family, nobody ever saw the text of that message.  All they saw was it was a Katrina message wishing -- wondering how this kid survived the hurricane.  And that's all we really knew about it and they didn't want a further contact and that's exactly what we did.
NBC: "But that wouldn't preclude you from beginning an ethics investigation, for example?"
HASTERT: "For what?  I mean, again, here's a member that wished a kid well, wondered how he'd survived the hurricane.  That's all we knew about this.  And, so far as the explicitly sexual language involved, we were told, 'No, there wasn't.'  And so what we had to go on was exactly what the editorial board of the St. Petersburg Times, I believe, had to go on and there was no there there.  What we know now: Yes."

Roll Call reports that "House Republican leaders held a tense Members-only conference call Monday evening to attempt to assuage lawmakers' anger about a controversy that some Republicans fear has put the majority increasingly in peril...  Sources on Monday's conference call said Members supported the leaders' position that there was no prior knowledge of any inappropriate contact between Foley and minors."   

The Wall Street Journal says the scandal gives the GOP "new reason to worry about two key constituencies: Christian conservatives and suburban soccer moms."   

The Boston Globe says that "Democrats and some analysts believe the scandal could imperil other GOP seats" besides Foley's, "especially if Democrats can convince voters that GOP lawmakers didn't aggressively look into the complaint against Foley when it surfaced last year." 

Bloomberg notes how the combination of the National Intelligence Estimate, the Woodward book, and the Foley scandal denied congressional Republicans the chance to head into recess touting their (scant) legislative accomplishments and making the most of the momentum they had built up during September.  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUnUTu_ZrhDk&refer=home

"US Republicans are facing challenges to their credibility this week on two of their strongest themes - family values and national security - with questions on whether the leadership had covered up a scandal involving a congressman sending explicit e-mails to teenage boys, and whether the White House has covered up rising problems in Iraq," says the Financial Times. 

"Republican operatives closely following the battle for the House and Senate said that they are virtually ready to concede nearly a third of the 15 seats the Democrats need to recapture control of the House, and that they will spend the next five weeks trying to shelter other vulnerable incumbents from the fallout of the Foley scandal in hopes of salvaging a slender majority," says the Washington Post. 

Republicans' best option right now: make Democrats as unpalatable to voters as possible.  Vice President Cheney, campaigning in Wyoming yesterday, "said he didn't have to remind the crowd what sort of legislation would come forward in Congress if Democrats gained the majority, invoking the idea of Sen. Edward Kennedy and Rep. Barney Frank, both Massachusetts Democrats, becoming committee chairs." 

The Republican House campaign committee has started airing TV ads in certain districts focusing on would-be Speaker Nancy Pelosi. 

The New York Times writes about Bush parachuting in on the campaign trail.  "While not yet conducting full-scale campaign rallies, Mr. Bush will be appearing more frequently with candidates, often in heavily Republican areas where Democrats are nonetheless competitive this year."  But in blue states and the most competitive races, candidates

The Washington Post says of Bush's fundraiser last night for House candidate Dean Heller, who's running in a traditionally GOP-leaning district in Nevada, "The fact that Bush had to go to the aid of Heller... was another indication of Republican trouble.  The 2nd Congressional District... has not elected a Democrat since being created in 1982.  But in the bruising August primary..., Heller emerged financially tapped out," and the "latest public poll, commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal, found Heller leading Democrat Jill Derby by just 45 percent to 42 percent." 

The Sacramento Bee covers Bush's campaign swing through California today.  "In the last midterm congressional elections four years ago, the president's efforts paid big dividends for his party, but since then the political ground has shifted.  He's still a big draw for Republican fundraisers, but some candidates who proudly campaigned with Bush in the past are keeping their distance now." 

On the eve of Bush's fundraiser for Pombo, the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund released a new poll showing Pombo trailing opponent Jerry McNerney, 48%-46%.  But Amy Walter of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report still believes Pombo will hold onto his seat.  "I think that Pombo is very weak -- which is why Democrats had tried to get someone to run against him," she tells First Read.  "However, they have a weak candidate who Pombo and the GOP will be able to define...  One person will have the money to define the race (Pombo) and one person won't (McNerney).  Thus, advantage Pombo."

New suburbs in formerly rural areas "are among the hottest battlegrounds" this fall, says USA Today.  "Some of these areas are increasingly ethnic and Democratic, while others are growing more Republican.  Some give big margins to GOP presidential candidates but split more evenly in other races...  All have enough voters to make them worth fighting for." 

More than $4 out of every $5 spent by the party's House campaign committees in September was spent on negative advertising, Bloomberg reports.  "Republican committees spent $17.74 million last month, about 92 percent of it to oppose Democratic candidates.  Democrats spent $11.44 million, about 68 percent to oppose Republicans." 

Outside groups are also pouring money into tight races -- sometimes even more money than the candidates themselves are spending, says the Washington Post. 

CONNECTICUT Sen. Joe Lieberman, running as an independent, "says the [Democratic] leadership has assured him he would keep his seniority if he returns to Congress.  Local Democrats are responding with irritation, political opponents voice disbelief, and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) denies making a decision," The Hill reports. 

In IOWA, the two candidates for governor debated for the first time last night.  Democrat Chet Culver painted Republican Jim Nussle as a product of Washington, while Nussle focused on Culver's big spending. 

MASSACHUSETTS Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R), who's running to replace retiring Gov. Mitt Romney (R), will get a chance to catch up with opponent Democrat Deval Patrick, who holds a wide lead in the polls, when they meet for their second debate.  Healey "said her focus is going to be pointing out the issues where she and Patrick differ, including taxes and spending plans - in addition to showing voters that she's more than Gov. Mitt Romney's lieutenant." 

But Romney's falling approval ratings could hurt Healey anyway, despite her attempts to distance herself from him on social issues. 

Vice President Cheney does his now usual routine of open-press arrivals and departures from airports he flies into and out of in the process of appearing at closed-press fundraisers today, these on behalf of TEXAS Rep. Henry Bonilla and House candidate Van Taylor.

Another Republican-held House seat that's endangered due to the logistics involved in voting for the Republican candidate is DeLay's Texas seat.  Roll Call writes up the hurdles GOP candidate Shelley Sekula-Gibbs faces in educating voters on how to support her on election day. 

Embattled Sen. George Allen (R) bought two minutes of TV airtime for a statewide address in VIRGINIA last night.  Allen campaign manager Dick Wadhams told First Read yesterday, "What's been lost in the last six weeks obsession with macaca, Jewish heritage and the 'n' word allegations is that Webb was practically dead and buried in early August and this race became competitive because of nothing [Democratic nominee Jim] Webb did.  Now that we are playing offense again, the gravy train is over."  During his two minutes, Allen "acknowledged that he has been sidetracked by the questions about his racial and ethnic sensitivity but said he wants to talk about 'real issues' with Webb," says the Washington Post. 

Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) campaigns for Webb and does a media availability with him in Alexandria.

Presidential candidate and Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist said while traveling in Afghanistan yesterday "that the war against Taliban guerrillas in Afghanistan could never be won militarily, and he urged support for efforts to bring 'people who call themselves Taliban' into the government...  Frist said that asking the Taliban to join the government was a decision to be made by Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Spokesmen for Karzai could not be reached for comment." 

The Democratic Senate campaign committee pounced, producing a memo declaring that "Frist effectively ended his 2008 presidential run on Monday when he proposed abandoning the U.S. campaign to destroy the Taliban and suggested bringing the terrorist group into the Afghan government...  Frist's proposal is a clear, unequivocal admission of defeat - the very thing that the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) says will fuel the growth of terrorist groups and endanger U.S. security."

Retired Gen. Wes Clark (D) said at UCLA yesterday that "the Bush administration's insistence on more leeway in applying Geneva Convention standards to the interrogation of terrorism detainees runs counter to America's history of observing international law." 

The National Rifle Association endorsed New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson (D) yesterday, per NBC's Pete Williams.  The nod was for Richardson's campaign for re-election -- not for president.  Still, it could give Richardson a rare credential to tout in a Democratic presidential primary.  (Of course, the NRA once supported Gov. Howard Dean, as well...)

From NBC's Mark Murray
Key Democratic House challengers have become the latest Democrats to pounce on the Foley scandal. Lois Murphy (D), who's taking on Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) in the Philadelphia suburbs, released a statement today calling on Gerlach to return the $1,000 he received from Foley's political action committee. "As a citizen and a voter, I am mortified by this latest turn of events," Murphy said of the Foley revelations and the GOP's handling of the incident. "I believe it is yet another reminder that we need to restore honor and dignity to the House of Representatives. We need to elect a new House, one we can be proud of." In addition, Patty Wetterling (D) -- who's competing for a GOP-held open House seat in Minnesota, and who became a national child-safety advocate after the 1989 abduction of her son -- held a conference call with reporters in which she demanded a thorough investigation of the GOP leadership in their handling of the Foley affair.

And the Senate Democratic campaign committee is also trying to make political hay out of this, by calling attention to the money vulnerable Sen. George Allen (R) received from Foley's PAC, and criticizing Sen. Mike DeWine (R) for holding a fundraiser today with White House press secretary Tony Snow, who referred to Foley's correspondence with a teenage page "as simply naughty emails."

Carl Forti, a spokesperson at the House GOP campaign committee, downplayed the Democrats' ability to make the Foley affair influence these races. "It'll be gone in 48 hours," he said, explaining that these Democrats will be unable to tie the incident to the local issues voters care about.

From NBC's Pete Williams
Federal officials familiar with the FBI's very early assessment of the Mark Foley e-mails say that at this point, there's no clear indication that federal laws were violated.  The law that might be involved is the prohibition on "enticement," which makes it a crime to use any interstate means of communication to entice minors to engage in any sexual act. But it's a relatively high threshold for prosecution -- the communication must explicitly propose a sexual act. The initial assessment, and it's a very early read, is that none of the e-mails that have been made public meet that test.

As for next steps, one official says the FBI will want to talk with the pages, current and former, who received e-mails or instant messages from Foley. Agents will ask if there are other communications not yet public. And they'll try to discover whether others were contacted as well.

Two Justice officials say the House legal counsel has told the Justice Department that efforts are underway to preserve any evidence on the Hill, and that the FBI is welcome to come and have a look. This has raised a few eyebrows at Justice, given that the House counsel fought so hard to keep agents from searching Rep.William Jefferson's office.

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
House Speaker Dennis Hastert has returned to Washington and will be in the Capitol today to meet with Page Board chair John Shimkus and current Clerk of the House, Karen Haus, to "review procedures" on the page system and to "discuss how to prevent this from happening in the future," according to a Hastert aide.  They will also discuss "how to protect people after they leave." It should be noted that Haus was not the Clerk of the House last year -- and that Shimkus is being called in without the presence of Rep. Dale Kildee, the Democratic member of the Page Board.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Thirty-six days from election day...  Even as the "Congressman Mark Foley Matter," as GOP leaders have been calling it, puts a safe Republican seat in play and damages the party's image at a time when their House majority is already endangered, their grip on the other chamber suddenly looks about as shaky. 

A series of polls show Republican candidates in the year's most competitive Senate races, including Republican incumbents, trailing or at best tied with their Democratic challengers.  The MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Polls show Michael Steele (R) trailing Ben Cardin by 6 points in Maryland; Tom Kean Jr. (R) trailing Sen. Bob Menendez (D) by 3 points in New Jersey; Sen. Rick Santorum (R) trailing Bob Casey Jr. (D) by 9 points in Pennsylvania; Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) trailing Sheldon Whitehouse (D) by one point in Rhode Island; and Mike McGavick (R) trailing Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) by 10 points in Washington state.  In Missouri and Virginia, Republican Sens. Jim Talent and George Allen are tied with their Democratic opponents at 43% apiece.

Other polls released yesterday, conducted by Mason-Dixon for other news organizations, show Sen. Conrad Burns (R) down by 7 points in Montana, Sen. Mike DeWine (R) down by 2 points in Ohio, and Bob Corker (R) down a point against Harold Ford (D) in Tennessee.  MSNBC.com has all the details. 

On the House side, the fast-growing scandal surrounding electronic messages sent by Foley to male teenage pages threatens much more than Foley's formerly safe seat.  It conveys a politically risky sense of entitlement among the majority party just weeks before election day.  It also has the potential to revive a perception, created in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, that Republicans don't know how to govern; to deflate the party's conservative base; and to undermine any efforts by the party to play the moral values card over the next five weeks.  And it has had House Republicans giving conflicting accounts of who knew what and when. 

Per NBC's Pete Williams, the FBI has begun "an assessment" to see if Foley violated any federal laws.  A Foley statement issued last night says he "strongly believes" he's an alcoholic and has checked into rehab. 

House Republicans' rush to do damage control recalls their frenzy to pass lobbying and ethics reform after Jack Abramoff had his perp walk.  That frenzy faded as time passed and they didn't incur the large-scale damage they'd feared.  (Incidentally, Abramoff was scheduled to go to prison today, but isn't because he's cooperating with the feds.)  But Abramoff had his perp walk back in January -- not five weeks before election day.

The latest RT Strategies poll conducted for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report from September 27-29 shows Democrats with a 13-point lead over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot test, 48%-35%, and President Bush with a job approval rating of 43% among registered voters.  Bush's campaign schedule for the week reflects the limits placed on how much he can help his party due to his poll standing and the unpopular war in Iraq.  Further complicating matters for the GOP right now, accounts of an Administration divided over the war appear to be reaching critical mass. 

Last week, Bush made a string of appearances for candidates in competitive races -- all behind closed doors.  This week, he appears publicly on behalf of candidates who are not in terribly competitive races.  First up is the GOP nominee for an open House seat in Nevada which gave Bush 57% of the vote in 2000 and 2004 (Cook Political Report rating: Likely Republican).  Tomorrow in California, Bush will raise money for Reps. Richard Pombo and John Doolittle (Cook ratings: Likely Republican, Likely Republican).  Close observers know that the only reason why both incumbents are in slight jeopardy is because they've faced some ethical difficulties this year.  Both have ties to Abramoff, and both intervened in a federal probe of a big campaign contributor.  Right now might not be the most convenient time for the President to be raising money for ethically challenged members of Congress. 

Observers might also note that while in California, Bush isn't doing anything with Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), who has reaped great success with his own re-election campaign by distancing himself from Bush's policies.  The new MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon Poll shows Schwarzenegger beating Democrat Phil Angelides by 49%-36%.

Got calendar? 

Foley is the fourth House Republican -- after Reps. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, Tom DeLay, and Bob Ney -- to leave office this cycle due to ethics problems.  No House Democrats have vacated their posts, though the finances of a few are being investigated.

Two probes could spring from the Foley scandal.  A Justice Department official tells NBC's Pete Williams that the FBI has begun "an assessment" to see if Foley violated any federal laws.  It's very early in the process, and there's no feeling one way or the other at this point whether any federal laws may have been violated, Williams reports.  What law might be involved?  There's no official finding, but one could be the law against enticement, which make it a crime to use any interstate means of communication to entice minors to engage in any sexual act that would be illegal.  Also, the House Ethics Committee could investigate House Republican leaders' handling of the situation after they were informed of Foley's e-mails and instant messages to the pages. 

The Florida GOP executive board is scheduled to meet in Orlando today (or tomorrow, if they reschedule because of the holiday) to vote on a replacement for Foley.  As mentioned here before, Foley's name will remain on the ballot, but any votes cast for him will go to this designated replacement.  A spokesperson for the Florida Department of State tells First Read that it's not clear if and how voters will be notified that a vote cast for Foley on the ballot is actually a vote for another Republican candidate.  Those details are still being worked out.

Per the AP: "A law enforcement official, who asked for anonymity because the investigation is ongoing, said agents from the FBI's cyber division are looking into the text of some of the messages and checking to see how many e-mails were sent and how many computers were used.  They are also looking to see if some of the teens who were sent messages will cooperate with the probe." 

The Washington Post learns from a former page that "he has known for years about the 'creepy' messages three 2002 classmates received from Foley.  He said Foley sent them after the boys had finished the House program.  Each began innocuously but took a turn in tone," he said.  The former page, "who runs the U.S. House Page Alumni Association's Internet message board," said those "who received them 'didn't do anything beside telling other pages about it.'" 

The Miami Herald notes that two papers, itself included, were aware of the communications and that a story was not warranted based on the evidence at the time. 

The Chicago Tribune covers Hastert's call for a Justice Department probe: "Hastert's surprising move underlined the potential damage of the scandal for Republicans in final weeks before midterm elections with control of Congress in the balance.  The Republican leadership also faces another variation of the iconic Watergate-era refrain: What did they know and when did they know it?" 

Bloomberg notes how House Republicans in tough races aren't exactly rushing to defend their leadership, and that "[n]o Republican candidate has canceled planned campaign appearances with Hastert and the issue hasn't endangered his hold on the party's top House post, said his spokesman, Ron Bonjean." 

The Los Angeles Times says "the Republicans' effort to distance the party from Foley may be complicated by his close ties with the party's campaign operation.  Foley's longtime chief of staff is now a senior aide to" NRCC chair Tom Reynolds.  "Foley's campaign committee gave $100,000 to the NRCC this summer...  Seizing on the campaign donation, which put Foley among the GOP committee's bigger donors, the Democratic National Committee stepped up its accusations that Reynolds and other Republican leaders were more interested in protecting Foley than investigating potential misconduct...  NRCC spokesman Carl Forti said the campaign donation had no impact on how Reynolds handled the matter." 

The New York Times notes how the NRCC has run ads this cycle hitting Democratic challengers on being soft on child predators.  "Now, Democrats are suddenly seeing an opportunity to turn the tables...  After years of defending themselves against Republican charges that they are soft on crime and generally out of step with the nation's values, Democrats are criticizing Republicans on one of their core issues." 

Disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff was supposed to report to prison today for 70 months of incarceration after being sentenced for pleading guilty in January to defrauding lenders in the SunCruz casino scandal, NBC's Joel Seidman reminds us.  Now he has until November 15 to report to federal prison, so that he can continue cooperating with federal authorities in an ongoing corruption investigation.  Abramoff also pleaded in January to charges in the pay-to-play, Washington influence-peddling investigation, but he has yet to be sentenced on those charges.

"Coming just weeks before midterm elections, Mr. Foley's resignation Friday and the ensuing scandal aren't well-timed for Republican fortunes.  As lawmakers left Washington over the weekend to campaign, the news soured a political mood already strained by divisions between the House and Senate leadership and a failure to complete major domestic legislation," says the Wall Street Journal. 

But, as the Washington Post points out, "House Republican leaders last week muscled through more than 165 bills that their members can use to win over voters back home -- and deflect attention from the scandals they left behind in Washington."  More: "[T]his year's efforts focused less on home-district spending and more on substantive measures tailored to specific constituents -- a 'suburban agenda' for embattled Republicans in the suburbs of Philadelphia, bills to appeal to Christian conservatives for troubled Midwestern Republicans and expressions of independence for Republicans from districts that have turned against [Bush]." 

The Hartford Courant, thinking along the same line, looks at the bills Connecticut's three vulnerable GOP House members are now able to tout on the trail. 

The Washington Post front-pages the portion of the Woodward book dealing with then-White House chief of staff Andy Card's consideration of replacing Rumsfeld. 

The Wall Street Journal notes how the Woodward book turns up the heat on Rumsfeld even more.  On NBC's Meet the Press, Sen. Mike DeWine (R) of Ohio said he has no confidence in Rumsfeld.  "Yesterday, Mr. Rumsfeld told reporters that he isn't considering resigning and that Mr. Bush telephoned him recently to express his confidence in the defense chief.  Meanwhile, senior White House officials made it clear that Mr. Bush still supported Mr. Rumsfeld." 

The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll conducted in the days leading up to September 11 shows Rumsfeld with a personal rating of 31% positive, 43% negative.  Asked whether or not Rumsfeld should resign, 44% said yes and 46% said no, a slight improvement for Rumsfeld since we last asked that question in April, when 47% said yes and 39% said no.  Sixty-eight percent of those polled in early September said that if Rumsfeld were to resign, it would be a symbolic gesture that wouldn't make a real difference in the war.

Members of the September 11 Commission are furious, the New York Times reports, about the revelation from Woodward's book that former CIA director George Tenet and another aide had warned then-National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice in July 2001 that an al Qaeda attack was imminent.  "The disclosures took members of the bipartisan Sept. 11 commission by surprise last week. Some questioned whether information about the July 10 meeting was intentionally withheld from the panel." 

The White House, however, vigorously disputes that revelation in the book. 

The Sunday New York Times reported that in June 2005, acting deputy defense secretary Gordon England and State Department counselor Philip Zelikow sent the Administration a memo urging them to "seek Congressional approval for its detention policies."  The memo's recommendations "included several of the major policy shifts that President Bush laid out in a White House address on Sept. 6...  But the memorandum's fate underscores the deep, long-running conflicts over detention policy that continued to divide the administration." 

The three Senate Republican holdouts who negotiated the deal with the White House on detainee policy seek to clarify some of the less understood points of the compromise bill in a Wall Street Journal op-ed. 

A former CIA counterterrorism official during the Clinton Administration, who went on the record last week disputing Clinton's depiction of his counterterror efforts to FOX, was on FOX himself yesterday and called Clinton's claims "lies." 

As we enter the sometimes spooky month of October, writes CNBC's Patti Domm, market watchers will be focusing on a heavy menu of data and Federal Reserve speakers this week.  One highlight will be a mid-day address in Washington on Wednesday by Fed chief Ben Bernanke, who will do Q&A.  Fed vice chair Donald Kohn also will speak that night about the economic outlook.  As the market continues to struggle with a Dow record, manufacturing data will set the tone today.  Trading volume should be light.  Auto sales are reported on Tuesday and chain stores will report sales on Thursday, giving us a good look at the strength (and tastes) of the consumer in September, Domm says. 

The question of whether the economy will have a hard or soft landing remains at the forefront as we look toward the September jobs report on Friday.  President Bush will be visiting a FedEx sorting facility that day, and since FedEx is a bellwether for the economy, we can guess what the message will be.  Bush's tour will be followed by a roundtable on job growth.

The Wall Street Journal looks at the risks for Democrats in playing up the wage gap and blaming Bush and congressional Republicans.  "It's a risky bet.  Government data do show an unambiguous trend toward a widening gap between the rich and everyone else, a trend that pre-dates Mr. Bush's election in 2000.  And yet U.S. electoral history is littered with Democrats who tried to use the inequality issue only to find voters unswayed and Republicans accusing them of 'class warfare' or business-bashing." 

On the Journal's op-ed page, Bush's former and current top economic advisors seek to reassure Americans about the wage gap. 

USA Today reports on a new nonpartisan study showing that "Americans of every income have benefited from a drop in federal income tax rates as Bush administration tax cuts enacted since 2000 took effect...  But those earning $75,000 to $500,000 are shouldering a larger share of total taxes paid as millions more of them earn higher incomes and get hit with the Alternative Minimum Tax." 

The Sunday Los Angeles Times reported that this cycle, Bush has Bush has raised $182 million as of Thursday...  Vice President Dick Cheney has brought in an additional $38 million, and Laura Bush $13 million." 

USA Today, previewing Bush's three-day Western swing, notes that "White House political affairs director Sara Taylor said Bush will have an 'aggressive schedule' leading up to Election Day but declined to detail the president's complete itinerary." 

The Sunday Washington Post pointed out that the scrutiny Sen. George Allen (R) has undergone in his re-election campaign is because he's viewed as a future candidate for president, not because he's running fo re-election -- and also notes that a high-profile re-election campaign is unfamiliar territory for one who's used to ousting incumbents. 

Is his suggested nominee for homeland security chief, Bernard Kerik, going to continue to haunt Rudy Giuliani (R)?  Newsweek reports that per Kerik's lawyer, Joseph Tacopina, "federal prosecutors are investigating Kerik for an alleged conversation he had with Jeanine Pirro, GOP candidate for New York state attorney general, about bugging a family boat so Pirro could determine whether her husband was having an affair.  Tacopina said he believes the Feds are also investigating Kerik's taxes, but declined to give details." 

Addressing the Conservative Party conference in the United Kingdom yesterday, Sen. John McCain (R) called himself "an American conservative;" joked about his age ("in the frank and rough assessments of Americans, I am older than dirt and have more scars than Frankenstein"); talked up Ronald Reagan and his legacy; called for entitlement reform and took a shot at Democrats as obstructing it; sent a warning shot to his party about an "insidious, creeping conceit that to be the governing party we must become the party of government;" and called global warming "a real and present danger."

The Sunday Boston Globe noted how GOP Gov. Mitt Romney's direction of Republican Governors Association campaign funds to the party's gubernatorial candidates in Florida, Iowa, and Michigan would help him with his presidential bid.

Romney was in New Hampshire yesterday, where he rallied 300 Republicans gathered at their state convention.