From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Thirty-two days before election day...  The House GOP leadership nearly went off the rails in the last 48 hours or so over the Mark Foley scandal, but seems to be in the process of completing the turn.  Top Republicans have united behind Speaker Dennis Hastert and are lauding the steps being taken to ensure that a Foley-like situation doesn't happen again.  Hastert and other Republicans continue to blame Democrats and the media for the eruption of the scandal, a tactic that might help reinvigorate a dispirited GOP base.  The White House appears to think the storm has blown over, judging from President Bush's phone call to Hastert last night after Bush avoided taking reporters' questions at his events all yesterday. 

Assessing the damage to the GOP's midterm election outlook will take some time.  At the least, the scandal probably has cost the party Foley's House seat and has landed Rep. Tom Reynolds, chair of the House GOP campaign committee, in a real battle for re-election because of his early knowledge of the Foley e-mails.  Democrats will try to keep up the pressure on Republican candidates over contributions from Foley and whether they'll vote for Hastert for Speaker.  But the GOP's immediate, twofold challenge is to show the public they're taking the matter seriously and get to talking about something else -- fast. 

The former was what yesterday's events were all about.  Hastert faced the press, took responsibility for the mishandling of the scandal, and laid out steps being taken to ensure it doesn't happen again.  The House Ethics Committee not only moved speedily to investigate, issuing four dozen subpoenas, but also displayed an unusual degree of openness by publicizing the time of its meeting yesterday and by having its top members hold a press conference afterward to lay out their plans.  Its projected timing of reporting back "within weeks" doesn't necessarily mean that will happen before election day.

The latter is the bigger challenge.  As one politically astute Republican member told First Read, every time a new angle to the scandal emerges, it hurts the party's efforts to move beyond it.  House Republicans already lost an opportunity to promote a key legislative accomplishment this week: the funding of the border fence they've been hoping to use as an issue against Democrats.  President Bush signed the funding into law on Wednesday but party lawmakers were too distracted to tout it.  (Not only was a significant victory for them, but it represented a major concession by the President, who has called for broader immigration reform.)

House GOP campaign committee spokesperson Carl Forti explained to First Read how the party's candidates get back on offense: "Keep spending millions talking about local issues."  "Most of our candidates are already back to normal," he added, meaning that the races "have settled down politically."

The White House's approach to the scandal all week has been a carefully gauged combination of occasional words of support for Hastert, calls for all the facts to come out, and efforts to steer clear by saying that "the co-equal branch of government" (which they don't always view as co-equal) needs to deal with this themselves, and by focusing on other issues.  Yesterday it was education and No Child Left Behind; today it's jobs and the economy.  Anticipating good news on this front, the White House scheduled a roundtable and remarks on jobs and the economy for President Bush at a FedEx facility in Washington today.  But the September jobs reports shows that only 51,000 jobs were created last month, the fewest in almost a year. 

These two days spent focusing on domestic issues are probably a welcome break for a White House that has had a hard time lately keeping public attention focused on the broader war on terror rather than on the unpopular war in Iraq.  The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll out earlier this week showed that the release of portions of the National Intelligence Estimate hurt Bush's case for the Iraq war, which remains the dominant issue of the midterm elections.  The latest development undercutting Bush's case, after the NIE and the Woodward book, is Senate Armed Services chair John Warner saying yesterday that if the Iraqi government can't reduce the sectarian violence within 90 days, the United States should consider a "change of course." 

"If we lose the House," the GOP member told First Read yesterday, "people may come back and say [the Foley scandal] was the decisive moment.  No, the decisive moment probably was the decision to go to Iraq."  In his National Journal column, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook agrees, saying that despite all of the attention on the Foley affair, "the GOP's majorities on Capitol Hill are far more imperiled by the attention" -- per the NBC/Journal poll -- "that voters are once again giving to the war in Iraq...  [I]n the larger scheme of things, the fact that this election is becoming a referendum on the war in Iraq is the real nightmare for the Republican Party."

And on Sunday, NBC's Meet the Press will air the latest in its Senate debate series, a face-off between Missouri Sen. Jim Talent (R) and challenger Claire McCaskill (D).  Close observers view the Missouri race as the real bellwether among Senate races this cycle -- the one that serves as the dividing line between those GOP-held seats that seem likelier than not to fall to Democrats (Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island) and those where Republicans may retain a slight edge (Tennessee, Virginia).  "It is also the 'cleanest, most unadulterated race' in the sense that you don't have an incumbent who has made mistakes, is ideologically far-removed from the state, quirky, or has major scandals in state," Cook tells First Read.

Got calendar? 

"Several GOP lawmakers in tough races said voters are not reacting as harshly to the scandal as they first feared, buying Hastert even more room to save his job," says the Washington Post.  "Still, lawmakers are privately furious with how Hastert and other leaders have handled the scandal...  And many expect that the worst is still to come." 

A Wall Street Journal story leads with Reynolds' plight in his Buffalo district and the party's consideration of "two separate paths.  One is for the party to hang tough and blame Democrats for the timing of the disclosures.  The other is to take full responsibility and move on -- while presumably sacrificing a top leader, like Mr. Hastert...  The hang-tough strategy is being urged by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, conservative talk-show hosts such as Rush Limbaugh, and increasingly, according to several Republicans, by party Chairman Ken Mehlman and White House political advisers." 

"...[I]n another sign that the Foley scandal is taking its toll on Republican House leaders, Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula Gibbs, the GOP write-in candidate in the race to replace DeLay, has decided not to accept Hastert's offer to travel to Texas and help her raise money for her race...  Just last Sunday... Sekula Gibbs proudly told supporters that Hastert would be traveling to the district to help her raise some badly needed funds," Roll Call reports. 

The Wall Street Journal reports that Hastert "is to appear with President Bush at a political event in Chicago next week." 

The New York Times front-pages that Hastert "has no distinct power base in Congress, not much of a national reputation and, in an age of television politics, little polish in front of the camera.  But Mr. Hastert has survived and survived to become the longest-serving Republican speaker." 

In National Journal's Political Insiders Poll this week, those surveyed were asked to predict how many House seats the Foley scandal would cost the GOP.  "Responses ranged from 0 seats to 10 or more seats.  The average of the responses from the 71 Republican insiders was a loss of 2.6 seats, while the average from the 73 Democratic insiders was a more aggressive 3.4...  In their comments, insiders from both parties cited the Republican leadership's handling of the situation as a factor in their calculation, rather than just former-Rep. Foley's actions."

Per the Chicago Tribune, "Fox News reported that internal Republican polling indicates the party could now lose as many as 50 seats in the House." 

McClatchy points out that recent "[p]olls do not yet make it clear what the impact on the election might be.  A new Pew Research Center poll indicated that the scandal isn't moving voters as much as the war in Iraq.  An Associated Press-Ipsos poll conducted this week found that about half of voters say disclosure of scandal and corruption in Congress will be very or extremely important."  But the Pew poll also "found that 57 percent of white evangelicals are inclined to vote for Republican congressional candidates in the midterm elections, a 21-point drop in support among this critical part of the GOP base."

Republicans continue to try to regain some leverage with the base by charging that the scandal blew up because of a partisan plot to hurt the party shortly before the midterm elections.  "In an interview with NewsMax.com late Thursday, Hastert said anyone who knew of the sordid instant messages Foley was sending to congressional pages should have notified authorities immediately...  As evidence that Democrats were involved in the timing, Hastert said the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had Foley's explicit electronic messages before Hastert did." 

The Financial Times points out that "Mr Hastert borrowed a strategy recently employed by [Bush], of shifting attention from the incident to the motivation of those behind leaking it.  When parts of the National Intelligence Estimate were leaked, noting that Iraq had galvanised Islamic terrorists, Mr Bush said the leak had 'political purposes.'" 

The Washington Times says that while Republicans in Washington have a game plan for getting beyond the scandal, "outside the Beltway, some state Republican leaders say the party remains in disarray, with no cohesive message on how to deal with the daily sordid developments and keep the races from becoming a national indictment on the party.  'We haven't really seen much of a plan'..., said Saul Anuzis, chairman of the Michigan Republican Party." 

The Los Angeles Times front-pages a look at the risks run by gay politicians and operatives in the GOP, particularly at a time when social conservatives play such a prominent role in the party.  "In fact, with the exception of the military, perhaps no institution in America has as strong a 'don't ask, don't tell' approach as the Republican Party." 

Vice President Cheney is in Sarasota, FL today raising money for a House candidate.  Sen. Barack Obama (D) is also in Florida today campaigning for his party's gubernatorial nominee, Jim Davis, and raising money for the state party and the Democratic Senate campaign committee.

Hastert had hoped to bring in former FBI director Louis Freeh to head up "an overhaul of the page program," NBC's Mike Viqueira reports, but House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi objected, saying that's not good enough, according to a top House Democratic aide.  Pelosi yesterday called on the Ethics Committee to release a preliminary report next week. 

As of Thursday afternoon, as a senior federal law enforcement official told NBC's Pete Williams, investigators had yet to find evidence that federal laws were violated.  In part, that's be cause of how federal statutes have been written.  In part, it's because the age of consent in Washington, DC, is 16 (at least, it was during the time period in question here).  And in part, it's an issue of the kind of behavior that federal prosecutors have considered a prosecutable violation in the past.  NBC's Jim Popkin reports that FBI agents from the DC field office spent several hours yesterday interviewing Kirk Fordham, Foley's former chief of staff.

"Meanwhile yesterday, a 26-year-old Atlanta man says Foley began sending him sexually suggestive messages and invited him to his Washington home after he served as a congressional page nine years ago.  Tyson Vivyan said Foley began sending him online instant messages a month or two after his nine-month stint as a page ended in June 1997...  Vivyan's account appears to show the earliest exchange of suggestive messages reported so far between Foley and former pages." 

 

Gas prices will probably bottom out above $2 per gallon, says USA Today. 

Previewing Bush's economic remarks today, Bloomberg says his "bid to win his party credit for an improving economy" is "given new urgency by Republicans' difficulty in making moral values and the war on terror central issues in the mid-term elections." 

The Los Angeles Times, also noting Bush's turn to education and the economy, says "neither topic is a sure winner, even as he suggests they are reason to vote Republican in the upcoming elections...  Allan B. Hubbard, chairman of the White House National Economic Council,... told reporters Thursday that despite the slowdown in housing prices, the still-high price of gasoline, and the ongoing problems of the Big 3 auto manufacturers, voters had reason to be optimistic about the economy." 

The Financial Times covers Pelosi's economic speech yesterday, saying it "was long on promises but short on strategy."  Still: "Although it has been criticised for lacking in depth, the Democrat party's economic platform appears to be tapping into widespread economic anxiety among voters that is expected to help the opposition party at the polls in November."  Pelosi also "skirted the issue of whether, as is widely expected, the Democrats would permit Mr Bush's tax cuts to be rescinded." 

Research by the Associated Press, which counts the votes on election night for the media (including NBC), indicates that voters are in for a long election night, NBC's Sheldon Gawiser advises.  While it is normal for about 5% of voting equipment to be replaced each election cycle, this time the changes required by the Help America Vote Act will impact most of the voters as 60% of the voting jurisdictions will have some new equipment.

A number of the equipment suppliers are so overwhelmed by the volume of new business that they cannot support the installations.  In Illinois, vote tabulation equipment problems prevented complete vote counts until six days after the state's primary.  In Ohio and Maryland, voting problems resulted in voting locations staying open for an additional two hours during their primaries.  It took Cuyahoga County in Ohio six days to count absentee voters, and in Florida, new equipment could not track accurately what proportion of the votes had actually been counted.  In fact, Gawiser notes, things are so bad that a number of counties have reverted to counting ballots by hand.

What does this all mean?  First, many voters are going to be faced with the challenge of voting on new equipment for the first time.  At the same time, poll workers will have to learn how to use the equipment and support voters.  Add this to additional provisional voting which is now required in all states, and voters are likely to be faced with increased difficulty in just casting their votes.  Second, it is likely that the counting of votes, particularly where a number of different types of voting equipment are in use, will be significantly delayed.

So, "stay tuned" on election night may well mean "wait a couple of days" to see how close races turn out.

NBC's Ken Strickland notes the significance of Sen. John Warner, a longtime party stalwart, differing with Bush on the war.  Yesterday, after returning from his eighth trip there, Warner put some distance between himself and the Administration by also saying parts of Iraqi government aren't meeting their "fundamental responsibilities" and "better pull their act together."  He acknowledged that some progress is being made, but most of his comments were critical of the overall situation in Iraq, specifically about the increased levels of violence and the dramatic shortcomings within the government there.  He said, "It seems to me the situation is drifting sideways." 

Then he said, "But I assure you in two or three months, if this thing hasn't come to fruition and this level of violence is not under control and this government able to function, I think it's the responsibility of our government internally to determine 'is there a change of course we should take?'  And I won't take off the table any option at this time."  US military and government agencies "are doing their very, very best," Warner said, but the Iraqi government is not carrying their weight.  "You do not see them taking the levers of sovereignty and pulling and pushing them and doing what is necessary to bring about a situation in Iraq whereby the people are able to live... and have a sense of confidence in their government that they're going forward," Warner said.

In a new book, "Soldier: The Life of Colin Powell," Powell's wife accuses the Bush Administration of using her husband's prestige to sell the Iraq war to the American people. 

The New York Times examines former President Clinton getting into campaign mode, noting that his schedule shows him making 40 campaign appearances in 16 states.  And that's on top of 40 events he's done since the spring.  (One thing to keep in mind, as the Hotline's Chuck Todd wrote a while back: In 2004, Clinton stumped for seven Democrats, and all of them ended up losing.) 

Like the MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon polls released earlier this week, a series of USA Today/Gallup polls show that Democrats stand a real chance to taking control of the Senate.  The paper also provides the lay of the land in the nation's governor races.

CALIFORNIA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) has once again said something controversial, the Sacramento Bee reports.  "No stranger to sensitive ethnic remarks,… Schwarzenegger drew criticism Thursday for saying Mexican Americans have acculturation problems 'because they are so close to their country here' while collectively praising Asian Americans for 'assimilating into the American way of living.'" 

Schwarzenegger and Democratic challenger Phil Angelides will face off tomorrow in their only scheduled debate, which could be Angelides' last chance to deliver a serious blow to the incumbent.  Per the San Francisco Chronicle, Schwarzenegger is confident and does not plan to practice, while Angelides has been frustrated by the choice of moderator. 

The Wall Street Journal says the Democratic candidate for Foley's seat in FLORIDA "illustrates the ideological compromises the party is making to retake the House.  A self-described conservative Democrat, Mr. Mahoney is a former Republican who didn't switch his party affiliation until 2005.  He describes Ronald Reagan as a political hero and himself as a 'conservative Christian.'" He talks about the need to reduce abortions, though he doesn't favor banning them." 

Some counties in Foley's district say they won't inform voters that his name has been replaced on the ballot.  Per the Miami Herald, "The debate encompasses more than just contradictory memos laden with legal jargon.  It's a partisan clash -- one that could end up in court -- between Democrats eager for [Mahoney] to capture Foley's former seat and Republicans trying to keep control of Congress." 

Among other topics important to voters, like Iraq and Social Security, candidates for Florida's 22nd district discussed the Foley scandal in a debate last night.  While state Sen. Ron Klein (D) argued that the Foley incident is a sign that change is needed in Washington, Rep. Clay Shaw (R) called the scandal a "tragedy" but would not comment on whether he thinks Hastert should resign. 

As opponent Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R), attempts to paint him as soft on crime, MASSACHUSETTS gubernatorial candidate Deval Patrick (D) apologized for downplaying his role in attempting to help a convicted rapist.  The Boston Globe reported this week that Patrick failed to disclose that he had written two letters on the inmate's behalf and helped pay for a DNA test.

In OHIO, the Columbus Dispatch says, vulnerable Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) is downplaying her friendship with Foley.  "Last month, when Columbus Monthly magazine asked her to list some of her friends in Washington, Rep. Deborah Pryce mentioned Rep. Mark Foley as one of them.  Now, that seemingly innocuous comment has become part of Pryce's close re-election race against Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy." 

And Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman campaigns with Senate nominee Mike McGavick and vulnerable GOP Rep. Dave Reichert in WASHINGTON STATE.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Changing the subject back to Iraq... Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman John Warner (R) today told reporters that if the Iraqi government can't reduce the sectarian violence within the next 90 days, the US should consider a "change of course" there. Warner is a longtime party stalwart who rarely differs with the president on the Iraq war.  But today, after returning from his eighth trip there, he created some distance with the Administration by also saying parts of Iraqi government aren't meeting their "fundamental responsibilities" and "better pull their act together."

Warner acknowledged that some progress was being made. But most of his comments were critical of the overall situation in Iraq, specifically about the increased levels of violence and the dramatic shortcomings within the government there. He said, "It seems to me the situation is drifting sideways." And then he said this:

"But I assure you in two or three months, if this thing hasn't come to fruition and this level of violence is not under control and this government able to function, I think it's the responsibility of our government internally to determine 'is there a change of course we should take?' And I won't take off the table any option at this time."

From NBC's Huma Zaidi and Elizabeth Wilner
House Speaker Dennis Hastert said today that while he is "deeply sorry" over the page scandal involving former Rep. Mark Foley (R) and that Republicans are "ultimately" taking responsibility, he will not resign his post because he did not do anything wrong. The Speaker insisted that he did not know of the problem until last Friday despite accusations that his office was informed years ago. "The fact is, I don't know who knew what when," Hastert said.

At a press conference outside his office in Illinois, Hastert announced that he has called for an investigation into the allegations and has turned the issue over to the House Ethics Committee, the FBI, the Department of Justice and the state of Florida. The Speaker also announced that a toll-free number has been set-up for people to leave confidential information regarding inappropriate contact with pages or discuss concerns. However, Hastert inadvertently inverted two of the numbers when releasing the tip-line information. The correct toll-free number is 1-866-348-0481. Interestingly, Hastert refrained from using Foley's name during his press conference.

Hastert also quelled rumors of his resignation in an interview with the Chicago Tribune, published this morning. Yet the debate rages on whether Hastert should resign. One senior Republican in Congress told MSNBC's David Shuster that he admires Hastert's decision not to resign, but that Hastert has now put Republicans in a "difficult position" because their Democratic challengers will pose this awkward question to them: "Do you support Dennis Hastert remaining as speaker or not?" But another GOP House member tells First Read that if Hastert resigns, "there's no alternative. There's another set of questions waiting for [Majority Leader John] Boehner. Better to draw the line here."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
In a 1:00 pm ET press conference today, House Speaker Dennis Hastert is expected to take responsibility for the handling of the scandal and go on offense against Democrats.  Hastert has been suggesting in recent media interviews that Democrats were the source of the Mark Foley story.  He is not expected to announce his resignation.  He'll hold the press conference at his district office in Batavia, IL.

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
As the House Republican ranks fall into total disarray, the White House is keeping pretty quiet and focusing on, of all things, No Child Left Behind. President Bush offered a statement of support for Speaker Dennis Hastert on Tuesday, but his spokesperson also told reporters that Bush had not spoken with Hastert in recent days. Vice President Cheney's office isn't providing any new statements, but points to Cheney's comments to the pool reporter on his fundraising trip: "I'm a huge Denny Hastert fan - I think he's a great speaker... And it makes no sense at all for him to think about stepping down."

Meanwhile, Hastert said on Laura Ingraham's talk-radio show this morning that he did in fact tell leading conservative Paul Weyrich that he would step down for good if the scandal becomes all about him. At the same time, he suggested that it wouldn't be in the GOP's interest for their leaders to leave, making way for a Democratic sweep. "I said look it, if this thing - if this got to a point where it was all about me and I have to explain everything, yeah I'd step down. But I said, on the other hand, if I fold up my tent and leave and others have to fold up their tents and leave, that they would, uh, then where does that leave us?"

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
Thirty-three days before election day...  The wheels on the House GOP bus are wobbling.  Two members of the leadership have raised the possibility that the Clerk of the House failed to heed warnings about then-Rep. Mark Foley's behavior.  One outgoing top aide suggested the same about Speaker Dennis Hastert's office.  The aide, who quit yesterday because of his role in the scandal, charged on his way out that he had warned Hastert's office about Foley before 2005.  Then came expressions of concern from Majority Leader John Boehner and House GOP Conference chair Deborah Pryce about rumors that Foley once showed up drunk in front of the House page dorm at night and was stopped by the US Capitol Police.  Both members wrote to the Clerk of the House requesting an investigation.  A third member of the leadership, House Majority Whip Roy Blunt, is saying he would have handled things differently.

Speculation about Hastert's ability to withstand this scandal, at least through the midterm elections, has exploded.  If he was on tenterhooks yesterday morning, his position seems more precarious now -- even as he tells the Chicago Tribune he's not resigning.

Boehner wrote the House clerk, "Specifically, it has been alleged that he may have been seen intoxicated at night outside the U.S. House of Representatives Page Dormitory, possibly attempting to gain entry to the building...  I am seeking information as to whether this alleged incident occurred and to whom it may have been reported."  NBC's Mike Viqueira reports that a similar letter was sent by Pryce, who's locked in a tough battle for re-election in Ohio, where Republicans are already staggering under the weight of scandals involving the governor and resigned Rep. Bob Ney.

Also yesterday, GOP leadership aide Kirk Fordham resigned, blaming Democrats for seeking to make him a "political issue" in his boss' re-election campaign.  Rep. Tom Reynolds, for whom Fordham worked as chief of staff, is a top target for Democrats because he chairs the GOP House campaign committee, and Reynolds' early knowledge of the Foley situation has made him more vulnerable in his Buffalo district.  On his way out, Fordham asserted that "even prior to the existence of the Foley email exchanges," he had multiple conversations "with senior staff at the highest levels... asking them to intervene when I was informed of Mr. Foley's inappropriate behavior.  One of these staffers is still employed by a Senior House Republican Leader."

Hastert chief of staff Scott Palmer responded, "What Kirk Fordham said did not happen."  The House Ethics Committee meets behind closed doors today to discuss a probe of how the situation unfolded.

The Foley scandal may be undermining the GOP's chances of keeping their majority in a number of ways: by tainting the public's views of the party's ability to govern, by distracting them from issues they want to focus on (like that border fence they got yesterday), by undermining their advantage over Democrats on moral values, and by depressing voter turnout among social conservatives.  From a numbers standpoint, it also puts one more seat in jeopardy -- and that's no small thing. 

Foley is the fourth Republican House member to resign this year due to a scandal, but as NBC's Chris Donovan suggests, he also belongs to another class of dubious distinction: the class of Republican candidates who have imploded this year.  In an election when every House and Senate seat could matter, the unexpected vulnerability of incumbents like Sen. George Allen and Rep. Don Sherwood -- who, in a new TV ad covered by the AP, apologizes for cheating on his wife but insists he never abused the woman with whom he was having an affair -- is a pretty unwelcome development for the GOP.  As is the fact that they're likely to lose two House seats due simply to the logistical hurdles facing their replacement candidates in Foley's and former Rep. Tom DeLay's districts. 

Beyond that, Sen. Conrad Burns always was destined to have a close race, but his critical remark about firefighters (along with other ill-judged comments) seems to have sealed his fate.  Recent polling shows him trailing his Democratic challenger.  That's three House seats and two Senate seats at real risk of falling to Democrats because of the incumbents' gaffes.

Democrats have their problem incumbents, to be sure.  They might even wind up falling just short in their bid to retake the Senate if incumbent Bob Menendez's ethical issues cost them that seat.  NBC political analyst Charlie Cook says the issue isn't specific to Republicans so much as a hazard of being in a longtime majority party. 

Got calendar? 

"Fordham's allegation brings the circle of those who had been told about Foley's behavior one step closer to the Speaker's chair," Roll Call says.  "Palmer has been Hastert's friend and top aide for more than 20 years."

The Los Angeles Times reports that Fordham's attorney "said Fordham did not know whether Palmer provided the information to Hastert.  But the lawyer said Fordham did know that Palmer met with Foley." 

The Roll Call story also notes that "a spokeswoman for GOP candidate Joy Padgett, who is running to replace Rep. Bob Ney in Ohio's 18th district, said Hastert's office contacted their campaign Wednesday and canceled his appearance at an Oct. 9 fundraiser due to 'scheduling conflicts.'"  Yesterday, vulnerable Rep. Ron Lewis of Kentucky canceled a fundraiser with Hastert.

In an interview yesterday with the Chicago Tribune, Hastert "said he had no thoughts of resigning and he blamed ABC News and Democratic operatives for the mushrooming scandal…  Hastert said in the phone interview: '…When the base finds out who's feeding this monster, they're not going to be happy.  The people who want to see this thing blow up are ABC News and a lot of Democratic operatives, people funded by [liberal activist] George Soros.'" 

The paper's editorial board argues, "The time for Hastert to give a clear, convincing picture of what he and GOP leadership knew about Foley is running very short." 

The House Ethics Committee now has "the sensitive job of investigating" Hastert.  "When the committee investigated Democratic Speaker Jim Wright and Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich, it hired outside counsels," the AP reminds us.  "The outside counsel in the Wright investigation said the committee must hire an independent investigator to convince the public it can conduct a nonpartisan investigation of congressional leaders." 

House Majority Whip Roy Blunt also distanced himself from Hastert yesterday, notes the Washington Times.  "'I think I could have given some good advice here, which is you have to be curious, you have to ask all the questions you can think of,'" he said. 

"What is Mr. Hastert's supposed firing offense, anyway?" asks the Wall Street Journal editorial board in his defense.  "We've seen no evidence to date that he lied or attempted a cover-up.  His office responded to complaints from the parents of a former page by having the head of the page board and clerk of the House speak with Mr. Foley and order him to stop communicating with the minor." 

"Amid the furor, Hastert and the Bush administration tried to shore up support among Christian voters.  Conservative activist Paul Weyrich... said he reversed his call for Hastert to resign after getting a personal call from the speaker.  The efforts are unlikely to stem the tide of criticism about Hastert's handling of the issue," Bloomberg says. 

The San Francisco Chronicle says the scandal exposes "the long-running fissure in the Republican Party between those on the right who view homosexuality as a sin that endangers the country and those who want the party to find a place in the GOP for all Americans." 

The Washington Post "obtained dozens of America Online instant messages yesterday that illuminate the apparent predations of the disgraced former congressman."  Some of the messages were already reported by ABC.  Foley attorney David Roth "said last night, 'I'm not going to comment on anything unless it's in a public forum before everyone'...  Taken together, the chats seem to make clear that Foley tried to lure the boys into sexual encounters, and certainly encouraged lurid behavior online." 

NBC's Pete Williams reports that legal experts and former federal prosecutors say it may be difficult to bring federal criminal charges against Foley based on what's publicly known about the messages he sent.  So far, say current law enforcement officials, it's not clear any federal laws were violated.  It turns out that talking trash to a minor is not automatically illegal.  Per Williams, the age of consent for sexual activity in Washington, DC is 16, for the most part.  One exception added to the law in July raises the age of consent in situations involving an adult who is in a position of trust or authority over a young person to 18.  A member of Congress would very likely be found to be in such a position of authority over a page, Williams notes, but because the Foley communications are apparently more than a year old, the more recent change in the law would not apply.

Mark Warner (D) today becomes the first presidential candidate to campaign with the Democrat seeking to replace Foley.  The Florida Democratic party is contesting Republicans' request that a letter be sent to voters informing them that a vote cast for Foley is a vote for replacement candidate Joe Negron, reports the Miami Herald. 

 

Bush spokesperson Dana Perino emphasized again yesterday that Bush has "his eye on the ball when it comes to campaigning" and would advise fellow Republicans to do the same.  But the New York Times says the Foley affair is rendering Bush's bully pulpit virtually useless.  "In interviews this week, White House officials expressed a sense of resignation, saying they were left with few options to help their party emerge intact." 

Speaking to reporters traveling with Bush in Arizona, Rep. Trent Franks (R) told them he believes leaders of the Democratic party knew about it 10 months ago, per the White House pool report.  Rep. Patrick McHenry also "called on Democratic leaders yesterday to testify under oath about when they knew of" Foley's electronic communications with House pages, The Hill reports. 

The Hill also notes, however, that since a longtime Republican Hill aide was the source of the Foley e-mails, "Republicans who are calling for probes to discover what Democratic leaders and staff knew about" Foley's behavior "will likely be unable to show that the opposition party orchestrated the scandal." 

Child advocate Patty Wetterling, the Democratic candidate for a key open House seat in Minnesota, will give the party's response to the President's radio address on Saturday, Democrats announced.  Her remarks will focus on child protection.  Wetterling became a child-safety advocate after her son was kidnapped in 1989; he has never been found.

Sen. John Kerry (D), campaigning for a candidate in New Hampshire yesterday, "said it's troubling that some people in Congress knew about the allegations before they became public.  If teachers and administrators failed to act on allegations like that in a school, he said, no one would stand for it. The same should go for Congress, he said." 

"Let's forget all of the niceties and diplomatic language and cut to the obvious truth: From the White House to Capitol Hill, Republicans look inept," says Stuart Rothenberg.  "Republicans may counter that while they have messed up, Democrats haven't done anything to deserve control of Congress.  Sure, I can buy that.  But that's not how our system works."  Democrats "don't have to understand that their election isn't a mandate for anything - except change."

"Only an 'act of God' could reverse the Republican party's sharply declining fortunes in the critical mid-term congressional elections that take place in less than five weeks, according to senior conservative consultants and opinion polls," says the Financial Times.  "Republican strategists can still draw on a large war chest," and their "election strategy remains two-pronged: to focus on the larger 'war on terror' and to localise congressional races... in order to divert attention from scandals, the war in Iraq and the unpopularity of George W. Bush." 

Per the Wall Street Journal, Democratic candidates are attacking Republicans who don't have any connection to the scandal, some by "pressing Republicans to declare whether they will vote to re-elect" Hastert as Speaker, and some by taking issue with campaign donations from Foley. 

Off the trail for a change, Bush today focuses on education and his No Child Left Behind Act which, together with his Medicare prescription drug benefit, remain his signature domestic policy accomplishments -- both from his first term.  Bush visits the Department of Education for a briefing and then a DC public school.  A White House conference on school safety is in the works for Tuesday.  White House spokesperson Dana Perino also says that while at the local public school today, Bush will highlight the positive impact that the No Child Left Behind Act has had on schools, and he'll talk about how the act is up for reauthorization in 2007.

Bush raised a cool $1 million yesterday for two GOP candidates out west.  Per the pool report, the warm-up speakers at his event for struggling Colorado gubernatorial nominee Bob Beauprez were direct in addressing the problems that Beauprez and Bush face in the state.  "'Let me assure you, I would never distance myself from this president.  Colorado does not distance itself from this president,' Rep. Joel Hefley told the crowd.  Sen. Wayne Allard urged the audience to ignore polls showing Beauprez trailing in the race for governor.  'Don't be concerned about those polls.  Just get out there and work,' he said."

Vice President Cheney is in Michigan today to raise money for GOP candidates, then he headlines a closed-press fundraiser at a private home in his own former neighborhood of McLean, VA for Sen. George Allen (R).  Cheney's fundraiser yesterday in Texas was his 108th campaign appearance this cycle, to the tune of $38.9 million.

Per the Boston Globe, which broke the story, "Bush's frequent use of signing statements to assert that he has the power to disobey newly enacted laws is 'an integral part' of his 'comprehensive strategy to strengthen and expand executive power' at the expense of the legislative branch, according to a report by the non partisan Congressional Research Service."  CRS says the Administration "is using signing statements as a means to slowly condition Congress into accepting the White House's broad conception of presidential power, which includes a presidential right to ignore laws he believes are unconstitutional." 

 

The recent start of Ramadan may account for the sudden rise in US troop casualties in Iraq. 

Bush's new line in stump speeches that "this traumatic period in Iraq will be seen as 'just a comma' in the history books" has been seized upon by critics who call it "evidence that Bush is indifferent to suffering," the Washington Post says.  "To them, it sounds as if the president is dismissing more than 2,700 U.S. troop deaths as 'just a comma.'"  Bush aides, meanwhile, say that "he means to reinforce his message of resolve in the long struggle for Iraqi democracy."  The remark has inspired a fierce discussion on the Internet. 

The AP follows up on the New York Times report from yesterday about the $20 million set aside by Congress to pay for a victory celebration.  "Democrats are pointing to it as another example of where the GOP has gone astray in handling the war in Iraq."  Republicans counter that the money initially was approved by unanimous consent. 

Moderate GOP Rep. Chris Shays has called on Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld to resign. 

An appeals court ruled yesterday that the Administration "can continue eavesdropping on the international communications of some Americans without a court warrant while it appeals a judge's ruling that the program is unconstitutional," says the AP. 

Fed chief Ben Bernanke spoke about one of the market's biggest fears yesterday and in a way, he contained it, says CNBC's Patti Domm.  By quantifying economic damage from the housing market, he put a marker down that matched Wall Street's expectations, allowing the stock market to read the bad news and move on.  Stocks set off on a winning streak that was followed overnight by equities markets around the world.

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi gives the first of what an aide says will be a series of speeches on the economy by the party's leadership.  In her remarks today, per the AP, Pelosi will promise "to raise the minimum wage while cutting taxes to spur economic growth and help the middle class.  She also vows that Democrats will keep American jobs from going overseas by repealing current tax incentives if voters give her party the reins of Congress on Nov. 7."

 

CALIFORNIA gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides (D) said in an interview with the Sacramento Bee that he opposes constructing a fence along the border, would grant drivers' licenses to illegal immigrants, and would have signed a bill -- vetoed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) -- that would allow illegal immigrant to receive financial assistance to attend the state's universities.  "Angelides also said he still believes he can win the gubernatorial race despite trailing by as much as 17 percent in recent polls… [H]e said he is counting on Saturday's gubernatorial debate to put him back into the race." 

In CONNECTICUT yesterday, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) denounced Foley.  "But unlike scores of other Democrats, Mr. Lieberman did not call on J. Dennis Hastert, the speaker of the House, to resign...  Mr. Lieberman cautioned against turning the incident into a partisan issue." 

The Lamont campaign quickly issued a statement: "The fact that Joe Lieberman says calling for Hastert's resignation is too 'partisan' demonstrates that he's been in Washington so long that he can't recognize the difference between what's right and what's partisan." 

Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman is in IDAHO today rallying support for the party's House candidate in Boise.  Are things that shaky that a Republican in Idaho needs a boost?

Presidential candidate and Sen. Evan Bayh (D) campaigns for his party's top House candidates in his home state of INDIANA.

MASSACHUSETTS Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R) is on the offensive in the gubernatorial race with a new TV ad calling her opponent, Deval Patrick (D), a lawyer who defends "cop killers," reports the Boston Herald.  The ad refers to a case in which Patrick helped to overturn the death sentence of an accused killer, and says, "'While lawyers have a right to defend admitted cop killers, do we really want one as our governor?'"  But while Healey "attacks her gubernatorial rival as soft on cons, her administration assigned a Boston cop killer to a light-duty prison clean-up crew," per the Boston Herald.

Muhammad Ali, who suffers from Parkinson's, has endorsed MICHIGAN Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) because of her efforts to overturn the state's ban on embryonic stem cell research. 

Stem cell research is one of the big issues in MISSOURI's Senate race between Sen. Jim Talent (R) and challenger Claire McCaskill (D): Talent opposes a state ballot measure promoting the science, while McCaskill supports it.  Today, stem-cell advocate Michael J. Fox endorses McCaskill in St. Louis.

In NEW YORK, a "whopping" 73% of voters in a new Quinnipiac poll don't know enough about GOP gubernatorial nominee John Faso to form an opinion about him, the New York Daily News writes.  "Democrat [Eliot] Spitzer is ahead of Faso by 69% to 18%." 

And according to a new Dallas Morning News poll, just 38% support TEXAS Gov. Rick Perry (R) in his bid for re-election. However, the paper points out that Perry "benefits from a fractured field of opponents mired in the teens," including independent candidates Kinky Friedman and Carole Keeton Strayhorn. 

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Kirk Fordham, Rep. Mark Foley's (R) former chief of staff who counseled Foley to resign last week and initially asked ABC not to publish the correspondence between the congressman and the teenage page, has resigned himself -- from his current position as the chief of staff to Rep. Tom Reynolds (R), who chairs the House GOP campaign committee and finds himself in a competitive contest for re-election. "It is clear the Democrats are intent on making me a political issue in my boss's race, and I will not let them do so," Fordham said in the statement, adding: "When I sought to help Congressman Foley and his family when his shocking secrets were being revealed, I did so as a friend of my former boss, not as Congressman Reynolds' chief of staff.  I reached out to the Foley family, as any good friend would, because I was worried about their emotional well-being."

More from the statement: "At the same time, I want it to be perfectly clear that I never attempted to prevent any inquiries or investigation of Foley's conduct by House officials or any other authorities. Like so many, I feel betrayed by Mark Foley's indefensible behavior. Again, I will not allow the Democrats to make me a political issue in my boss's race, and I will fully cooperate with the ongoing investigation."

From NBC's Mike Viqueira
Embattled Speaker Dennis Hastert got a boost today: Rep. Mike Pence, chair of the House conservative caucus, and Rep. Joe Pitts, head of a group called the "Values Action Team," have come out in support of him. Their statement: "What our former colleague Mark Foley has done is appalling and disgusting on its face. But in the context of the responsibilities of high office, his actions are even more despicable. And in the context of the Republican Party, which has done so much to protect and nurture children, it is utterly unconscionable... Regardless of our reservations about how this matter was handled administratively, we believe Speaker Hastert is a man of integrity who has led our conference honorably and effectively throughout the past eight years.  Speaker Dennis Hastert should not resign."

Since Republicans were the ones who elected Hastert as Speaker, and since conservatives are the single largest and most influential bloc in the House GOP, and since the nature of this scandal cuts right to the heart of what many conservatives care most about, the statement is significant and is good news for Hastert.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
President Bush "has his eye on the ball when it comes to campaigning," spokesperson Dana Perino said last night.  He might be the only top Republican who does.  Recent events have both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue struggling to get their stories straight and doing damage control 34 days before election day, and have arrested any momentum built up by Bush and congressional Republicans during the month of September, per the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.  Bush's job approval rating in the poll is 39%, down three points since four weeks ago and back below the symbolically significant 40% mark.

While the Mark Foley scandal is preoccupying Washington and further souring voters' views of the governing party, more alarmingly for Republicans as the midterm elections loom is that solid majorities find the President's case for the war in Iraq to be "a stretch," as NBC/Journal pollster Bill McInturff (R) puts it.  After Bush and the GOP ranks spent a month seeking to bolster public support for the unpopular war in Iraq by arguing that it's central to the broader war on terror, 57% of registered voters say that the nation's safety from terrorism does not depend on our success in Iraq; 37% say it does. 

In the wake of the release of portions of a National Intelligence Estimate suggesting that the war in Iraq has actually encouraged terrorism, 46% of those polled likewise say the war is hurting the United States in its ability to win the war on terror -- an increase of 14 points since our last poll four weeks ago.  Asked if Iraq is in a civil war, 61% say it is.  The poll was taken from September 30-October 2 of 805 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-3.5%..

Why is this so worrisome for Republicans?  Because instead of accepting their case that Iraq is key to the broader war on terror, most voters are inclined to view Iraq as a unilateral conflict and to agree with the Democratic argument that the war there has made the nation less safe.  Not only will Iraq be the top issue for voters this November, per the survey, but the percentage of those who say it will be one of the top issues in determining their vote has increased over the past four weeks from 27% in early September to 36% today.  Bush has "lost the essence of the debate.  The fulcrum of this election has switched," says NBC/Journal pollster Peter Hart (D).

"As time goes on," McInturff says, people want to know "what's the resolution, what's the good news, and what's progress.  The President has a very difficult job because the answers to those questions are not readily apparent." 

The impact of the still-developing Foley scandal is less apparent but also detectable in the survey.  Asked whether what they've seen and heard over the past few weeks makes them feel more favorable or less favorable about Republicans possibly keeping their majorities in Congress, 41% say they feel less favorable; 18% say they feel more favorable.  That question covers the NIE, Bob Woodward's new book, and the Foley situation, McInturff notes.

Hart also points to the question of whether or not voters feel their own member of Congress deserves to be re-elected.  The results in this survey -- with 38% saying their member deserves to be re-elected and 45% saying it's time to give a new person a chance -- are more in line with the results for this question in October 1994 (39%-49%), when Democrats were swept out of power, than they are with the results for this question in October of any election year since, which were more favorable for incumbents.

Voters also seem somewhat more open now than in the past year to accepting Democrats as the alternative to the majority party.  The Democratic party is rated positively by 38% in the survey and negatively by 34%.  In contrast, the Republican party is rated 37% positively and 44% negatively.  Whereas feelings about the two parties used to be "a pox on both houses," Hart says, there seems to be a greater "willingness to at least look at the Democrats" now.

Still, McInturff cautions, "with five weeks left, that doesn't mean that today's numbers are the ultimate answer for what the fight's about" in this election.  Unfortunately for the GOP, he notes, the focus on Foley and on Iraq is "obscuring the other message of this survey," which is that pessimism about the economy has lifted somewhat in the wake of falling gas prices.

Got calendar? 

Speaker Dennis Hastert is not out of the woods, NBC's Mike Viqueira suggests.  The Republican rank and file are generally big Hastert fans and he has a lot of goodwill within the conference, so it would take a lot for there to be an organized call for his ouster.  Having said that, members are also waiting to see if Hastert can turn the corner and get this behind him, and the sense is that he has another day or so to pull that off.  Members also worry about another shoe dropping in the scandal.  There's been talk about whether the ouster of a Hastert aide would quiet things down, and also talk of Hastert possibly giving up his post after the election.  Viq says that the fact that Congress is not in session works in Hastert's favor because were they all gathered on Capitol Hill, it would be an absolute circus up there, with members constantly having to stop and comment to the press. 

Viq also reports that the House Ethics Committee will gather for a closed-door session tomorrow. 

The Wall Street Journal games out the politics of replacing Hastert: "Any abrupt departure could also disrupt the rest of the leadership in the final weeks of the campaign.  And one of the Republicans' weaknesses is that they have no clear transition figure...  The damage from the scandal complicates the picture because the office of the speaker is elected by the full House.  If Republicans lose seats, any small block of conservatives unhappy with the party's leadership would gain more say."

After Bush spoke up in Hastert's defense yesterday, White House spokesperson Dana Perino told reporters last night that Bush has not talked with Hastert in the last few days because he wants to allow investigators to do their work.  "He wants to know all the facts, and he knows that the Speaker wants to know all the facts." 

Hastert is stepping up his suggestions that the publicizing of Foley's e-mails and instant messages was a political ploy meant to hurt Republicans in the midterms, and while some conservatives are calling for his resignation, others support his argument.  Hastert told Rush Limbaugh yesterday, "...[W]hat we've tried to do as the Republican Party is make a better economy, protect this country against terrorism... and there are some people that try to tear us down.  We are the insulation to protect this country, and if they get to me it looks like they could affect our election as well."  Limbaugh replied, "...[I]t's clear to me that what the Democrats are doing here in some sort of cooperation with some in the media is to suppress conservative turnout..."

And in an interview with a local radio station in his hometown of Plano, IL yesterday, Hastert claimed responsibility for the situation but added, "on the other hand, this has been mysteriously dropped on us the last day of the session, just before the election," and called it "an October surprise that keeps us from getting our message out." 

Conservative activist Richard Viguerie told NBC yesterday that Republicans will lose their majority this fall and that it's for the best.  He offered the analogy of the Jews wandering in the desert for 40 years, saying conservatives are in the same boat: "We're not going to get to the political Promised Land until we have new leaders."  He added, "The one thing that we've got to avoid at this point -- above everything else -- is a cover-up.  We don't need to wait until the FBI comes back with their report after the election.  We need to get to the bottom of this, and we need to get to it now." 

Moderate Republicans who happen to be in tight races this fall are also stepping forward.  GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee, one of his party's most vulnerable Senate incumbents on the ballot, has called on any Republican leader found to have been involved in a cover-up of the Foley scandal to step down.  Chafee will be joined on the trail today by Sen. John McCain (R), who's scheduled to talk about the environment -- but may also wind up having to talk about this.

Another top Republican who may be confronted by questions about this today: Laura Bush, who's in Buffalo to raise money for Rep. Tom Reynolds and does a radio interview on youth issues.  Reynolds, the party's House campaign committee chief, is caught up in the scandal because he was informed of the e-mails early on and has claimed that he told Hastert about them last spring.  The Buffalo News says that "if anyone has ever needed first lady Laura Bush to come to the rescue, it's [Reynolds]." 

Yesterday saw some daylight between Hastert and his lieutenants, NBC's Viq reports, even though Majority Leader John Boehner came to Hastert's defense by denouncing a newspaper editorial calling for Hastert's resignation.  One front on which conflicting statements were made was on when Hastert first learned of the Foley e-mails -- any Foley e-mails.  Hastert told NBC on Monday night that the first time he learned of the e-mails was last Friday, the day Foley resigned.  "I have to say that I don't recall anyone telling me about 'em.  I heard about them the same time (as the more salacious e-mails) on Friday afternoon." 

But on Monday night in Buffalo, Reynolds said that when he heard about the e-mails in the spring, he reported them to Hastert.  Citing his sexual harassment training, he said, "I was educated to take to the supervisor...  The Speaker of the House is my supervisor."  And yesterday on local radio back home in Cincinnati, Majority Leader John Boehner reported that he did the same.  "I believe I talked to the Speaker and he told me that it had been taken care of."

Roll Call notes that "while Members and outside groups rallied behind Hastert" yesterday, "other, more vulnerable Republicans appear to be distancing themselves from leadership as a whole.  Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.), who is locked in one of the most competitive races this cycle..., canceled a scheduled Monday fundraiser with Majority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), 'because he felt it was inappropriate to move ahead with it as planned.'"

Hastert's 32-year-old Democratic opponent back home claims to the Washington Times that he's seeing more support now because of how Hastert has handled the Foley affair. 

Through his attorney yesterday, Foley declared that he's gay and said he was sexually molested by an unnamed member of the clergy when he was a boy. 

The Wall Street Journal looks at how several "media organizations, along with law-enforcement and congressional officials, had seen the Florida Republican's tamer messages to male teenage pages months ago, but the messages didn't set off alarm bells, even at ABC, which didn't consider them worthy of its broadcast TV news, a reconstruction of events shows." 

The Washington Post reports that "more than a dozen other former House pages said in interviews and via e-mail that [Foley] was known to be extraordinarily friendly in a way that made some of them uncomfortable."  Still: "None of those interviewed said they had received a sexual or suggestive overture from him during their time on Capitol Hill." 

The Los Angeles Times profiles Foley's former chief of staff, now chief of staff to Reynolds.  "Democrats charge that [Kirk] Fordham's involvement reflected the GOP's desire to minimize the political fallout by, at least initially, keeping the issue quiet."  Fordham "retained a lawyer on Tuesday and said that he intended to cooperate with the FBI's investigation." 

USA Today notes the "subdued reaction on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange at the close of trading Tuesday...  This Dow milestone seems to lack the emotional euphoria, the feeling that stocks will keep going up forever, the sense of financial well-being that most investors felt at the top of the market in 2000." 

The White House issued a release yesterday noting the Dow's record-high close and still-falling oil prices.  The new NBC/Journal poll taken before the Dow broke a record shows a majority of Americans -- 61% -- saying the stock market increase has had no effect on their level of confidence in the country's overall economic conditions.  Twenty-five percent say the increase makes them feel more confident about them.  The drop in gas prices is having a greater affect on people's views of the US economy: 31% say it has made them feel more confident about the country's economic conditions, while 50% say it's had no effect.  But 62% also say they give President Bush "very little" or "no" credit for the decrease in prices.

Fed chief Ben Bernanke gives what will be a closely scrutinized mid-day address, with Q&A, in Washington today, CNBC's Patti Domm notes.