Karl Rove has raised more than $12 million for Republican candidates this cycle.  "The total is remarkable for a White House staffer, more than any aide has been known to raise before...  Rove's fundraising total also shows that despite Democrats' persistent efforts to demonize him,... Rove remains very popular with rank-and-file conservatives."  (We wonder how much Tony Snow will raise?) 

The San Francisco Chronicle reports that traditionally GOP-leaning businesses in California are dishing out funds to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi's campaign in anticipation of Democrats winning the House. 

The Los Angeles Times notes how Democrats can only retake the Senate if they win seats in a bunch of red states.  "Election day will decide whether discontent over the nation's direction overrides entrenched GOP advantages, especially among rural voters, in these culturally conservative states." 

The New York Times takes a look at the 527 groups -- for example, the GOP-leaning Americans for Honesty on Issues and the Democratic-leaning Majority Action -- that have begun to air TV ads in key battlegrounds. 

CALIFORNIA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) will appear on The Tonight Show this evening, and Democratic opponent Phil Angelides' campaign is protesting Schwarzenegger's free airtime, charging that NBC is violating FCC regulations by inviting the Governor to appear on the show during campaign season.

A University of CONNECTICUT/Hartford Courant poll shows Sen. Joe Lieberman (I) leading Democratic nominee Ned Lamont by eight points. 

MASSACHUSETTS Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R), who's running for governor, has another ad attacking Democratic opponent Deval Patrick for his "advocacy on behalf of a convicted rapist," while Patrick is running ads blaming Healey and retiring Gov. Mitt Romney (R) for "'crushing property taxes,' rising crime and police layoffs, the Big Dig tunnel collapse, and job losses."

The Boston Herald issues a blow, writing that according to records kept during Patrick's tenure in the Clinton Justice Department, he "championed the constitutional 'rights' of convicted rapists and murderers, demanding they be given juice, clean sheets, cold tuna sandwiches, white underwear and properly inflated basketballs." 

The Washington Post says that "values voters" in OHIO are dispirited because of ethical problems plaguing Republicans and because of the state's economy.  "Leaders of the religious right here promised... to reshape Ohio's political landscape.  They pledged to support candidates determined to 'bring spiritual revival and moral reformation to the state,' in the words of Reformation Ohio, an evangelical outreach effort.  No one better embodied that promise than [gubernatorial nominee Ken] Blackwell." 

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette notes that the Republican Governors Association is launching GOTV efforts in six states.  But PENNSYLVANIA isn't among them.  "The GOP group is focusing on races for governor in Arkansas, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Michigan and Oregon.  Does this mean that national Republicans have given up on Pennsylvania gubernatorial hopeful Lynn Swann…?" 

In the two Senate races that weren't expected to be competitive early on, national Democrats are pouring resources into VIRGINIA, where GOP Sen. George Allen is struggling, while Republicans are holding their fire in NEW JERSEY, where Sen. Bob Menendez (D) is in trouble, The Hill notes.  Former President Clinton will appear for Virginia candidate Jim Webb (D) next week. 

And the AP writes that the "usually ho-hum race for WISCONSIN secretary of state is being spiced up by one candidate's tell-all book about her bed-hopping exploits with Green Bay football legends during the team's glory days under Vince Lombardi in the 1960s." 

From NBC's Ken Strickland
A spokesperson in Sen. Hillary Clinton's office fired off this written response to McCain's criticisms of the Clinton Administration's North Korea policies -- although it's more directed at President Bush than John McCain. "Now is not the time to play politics of the most dangerous kind -- with our policy on North Korea. History is clear that nothing the Bush Administration has done has stopped the North Koreans from openly testing a nuclear weapon and present a new danger to the region and the world. President Bush has been in charge of North Korea policy for six years, and two days ago we saw the brazen result."

More from the statement: "Senator Clinton supports a National Missile Defense System that has been tested and actually works. She supports an approach that protects us from the threat of North Korean nuclear weapons, as the Clinton Administration successfully did for eight years."

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Are we beginning to see the contours of a possible Clinton-McCain presidential race? In remarks today, Sen. John McCain (R) said the Clinton Administration's policy on North Korea "was a failure," calling it a "carrots and no sticks policy that only encouraged bad behavior." He also called on Senator Hillary Clinton (D) to stop blocking legislation that would accelerate missile defense. These remarks were released in a written statement today to compliment a news conference McCain held in Michigan where he was expected to make the same points.

"I would remind Sen. Clinton and other critics of the Bush Administration's policies that the framework agreement of the Clinton Administration was a failure," McCain said. "The Koreans received millions of dollars in energy assistance. They diverted millions in food assistance to the military. And what did the Koreans do? They secretly enriched uranium." He added, "When one carrot didn't work, we offered another." McCain also threw his support behind President Bush and his handling of the North Korea situation, including Bush's calls for action by the UN Security Council. And while he didn't call for immediate military action against North Korean, McCain said "it is obvious" the United States needs a larger active duty Army and Marine Corps.

From NBC's Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Mike Viqueira
For the second time in two weeks, Speaker Denny Hastert addressed the Foley scandal in a press conference. Asked about reports that a former page in 2000 reached out to retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe -- the only openly gay Republican in Congress -- about Foley's behavior, Hastert replied: "All I know is that congressman Kolbe was on the page board... If it was something of a nature that should have been brought forward, then he should have done that."

Hastert maintained that while the situation could have been handled better, he does not feel that he or anyone in his office did anything wrong. "I understood what my staff told me... and I think from that response they've handled it as well as they should. However, you know, in 20-20 hindsight, probably you could do everything a little bit better," he said. "I didn't think anybody at anytime in my office did anything wrong. I found out about these revelations last Friday. That was the first information that I had about it," he added. Per Hastert, investigations in the Foley matter are ongoing and that if anyone is found to have withheld information about it, that person needs to resign.

Meanwhile, Kolbe just released a statement regarding his recollection of that 2000 complaint, saying that a former page contacted his office to say he received emails from Foley that made him uncomfortable, but that were not believed to be sexually explicit. "It was my recommendation that this complaint be passed along to Rep. Foley's office and the clerk who supervised the page program. This was done promptly. I did not have a personal conversation with Mr. Foley about the matter. I assume e-mail contact ceased since the former page never raised the issue again with my office. I believed then, and believe now, that this was the appropriate way to handle this incident given the information I had and the fact that the young man was no longer a page and not subject to the jurisdiction of the program."

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Four weeks out, a flood of polling indicates that the Mark Foley scandal has at least temporarily worsened the GOP's already difficult midterm election outlook.  After an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll taken right after the scandal broke showed that news and recent developments in Iraq making voters feel even less favorably disposed toward a GOP majority, a battery of new surveys taken a week or so later depict a party in dire straits and President Bush squarely back below 40% on job approval. 

A new Gallup poll for USA Today shows Bush with a 37% job approval rating among adults, and Democrats with a 23-point edge over Republicans among likely voters on its version of the generic congressional ballot test.  A new Washington Post/ABC poll shows Bush with a 39% job approval rating among adults, and Democrats with a 13-point edge over Republicans on the generic ballot test among registered voters.  A New York Times/CBS survey shows Bush with a 34% job approval among adults, and Democrats leading Republicans on the generic by 14 points among registered voters.  A CNN survey shows Bush with a 39% job approval rating among adults, and Democrats leading Republicans by 21 points among likely voters.

Hamstrung by its investments in Iraq, the Bush Administration continues to grapple diplomatically with the North Korea situation.  Republican campaign committees are hitting Democrats for being weak on missile defense, while Democrats charge that North Korea is the latest example of how the war in Iraq has made the United States less safe.  More on this below.  But North Korea isn't the only hot security topic today -- the security of the nation's children is also at the forefront, as well.  The White House convenes a conference on school safety in the wake of the recent shootings in three states.  Both Bushes will take part; no new policy is expected.  And the House also considers the security of minors in its care as the Ethics Committee continues its probe and the FBI interviews a former page who may have received electronic messages from Foley. 

Not only have Republicans lost some of their traditional edge over Democrats on moral values, but they've also lost the edge on top crime issue for the cycle.  If cracking down on white-collar criminals was the popular anti-crime position taken by congressional candidates in 2004 because of Enron and other corporate scandals, stopping Internet sex predators has been the hot topic for candidates this cycle, per Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks campaign advertising. 

Crime has not registered among voters' top priorities in recent federal elections, though it tends to play more prominently in state and local races.  Even now, with tales of Internet sexual predators popping up in the news on a weekly basis, the issue hasn't broken through the public's consciousness as a top concern.  Congressional candidates also generally agree when it comes to being anti-crime, especially as the hot-button issues have shifted away from guns (and by association, guns rights and gun control).  Tracey calls the Internet sex predator issue, like the corporate crime issue, a "straw man."

But for Republicans, the Foley scandal turns the issue into a double-edged sword.  One example: Republicans had been touting the Adam Walsh Child Protection & Safety Act, which includes a couple of provisions to protect children from sexual predators on the Internet.  Footage of the late July bill-signing at the White House has been airing repeatedly on cable news -- but because Foley was standing behind Bush when Bush signed the bill into law. 

"It's hard now for the GOP to run this spot and the Democrats now have a face for theirs," Tracey says.  Coincidentally or not, Democratic House candidate Patricia Madrid, the New Mexico attorney general, began airing an ad focusing on Internet predators in her district just last Tuesday, as did Phil Kellam in his southeastern Virginia district.  Both are in tight races against GOP incumbents.  Vulnerable freshman Rep. Melissa Bean (D) of Illinois, who has championed ways to keep kids safe from Internet predators, will hold a forum on the issue in her district tomorrow. 

On the other hand, some vulnerable GOP incumbents might opt to confront the issue head-on, going on the air with TV ads highlighting the need to stop Internet sex crimes since the Foley scandal broke.  Rep. Nancy Johnson of Connecticut began airing a spot last Thursday which mentions the need to stop Internet predators.

Got calendar? 

The Financial Times: "Although [Bush] delivered a stern warning to North Korea over the consequences of its nuclear test, analysts say the US has few options but to rely on its international leverage, which has been severely weakened by the war in Iraq.  Critics say the Bush administration blundered in trying to confront North Korea in late 2002 just as it was committing itself to invading Iraq." 

"The story of Monday's announcement of a nuclear test is one of failed policies, neglect and missed opportunities by the Bush administration and its predecessors," the Los Angeles Times says.  "It is also the story of how a cagey dictator, Kim Jong Il, took advantage of the United States' entanglement in Iraq to advance his nuclear agenda."  The story suggests that normalization of relations between the United States and North Korea "appeared imminent" at the tail end of the Clinton Administration. 

The Washington Post points out that the Administration "has reached a crisis point with each" of the three nations Bush once called the "axis of evil."  "The deteriorating situation in Iraq has undermined U.S. diplomatic credibility and limited the administration's military options, making rogue countries increasingly confident that they can act without serious consequences.  Iran, meanwhile, will be watching closely the diplomatic fallout from North Korea's apparent test as a clue to how far it might go with its own nuclear program." 

Another Financial Times story, pointing to the "politically charged" statements issued yesterday by the GOP's Hill leadership, says, "With only a month to go before mid-term congressional elections many Republicans believe the tests could help restore their waning prospects...  Republicans almost always benefit from any rise in the 'fear factor' among voters in the US.  However, Monday's move by Pyongyang could cut both ways." 

NBC political analyst Charlie Cook writes in his CongressDailyAM column, "With four weeks to go, the nuclear test in Korea should serve as a reminder that events could shift this spotlight yet again on to more favorable, or at least less unfavorable, terms for the GOP.  For now, though, it is in a really bad place...  Four weeks is a lifetime in politics, and things could change a lot.  But for Republicans to salvage their majorities in the House and the Senate, a lot would have to change." 

MSNBC.com looks at how some Democrats pounced on the news.  "Where Democrats usually criticize Bush for what they call a 'go it alone' strategy in Iraq, on Monday some Democrats took the opposite tack, criticizing him for being too multilateral and not unilaterally negotiating with North Korea...  Most Democrats were not highly specific Monday about what they would do about Korea if they were in charge." 

Sen. John McCain (R) will hold a press conference on North Korea in Michigan today; he's there campaigning (for president and) for the GOP Senate nominee.

The Senate Democratic Policy Committee announced yesterday that their first field session on the Administration's conduct of the Iraq war will take place on Thursday in Chicago and will focus on the training of Iraqi security forces.  The scheduling of the hearing for Chicago may be designed to give a boost to Democratic House candidate Tammy Duckworth, an Iraq war veteran who lost both legs in combat and is now seeking to replace retiring Rep. Henry Hyde (R) in a traditionally GOP-leaning suburban seat.

"One year after the Army failed to meet its annual recruiting goal by the widest margin in two decades, the Pentagon is to announce this week that the ground forces, and the rest of the military, all reached their targets for recruits in 2006," the New York Times says. 

The AP reports that the FBI is expected to interview former congressional page Jordan Edmund at an undisclosed location in Oklahoma City today.  Edmund "may have received suggestive electronic messages from Foley." 

The Los Angeles Times says the House Ethics probe "is shaping up as a classic 'he said/he said.'"  The paper also reports that the scandal is "sparking political concerns at the highest levels of the White House, with strategist Karl Rove conceding in a private briefing that the matter 'complicates things' for some Republican candidates who have been linked to the scandal." 

After the Washington Post reported that a former page had lodged a complaint about Foley's behavior with retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe (R) in 2000, the New York Times got Kolbe on the phone, but he refused to give any answers for the time being.  "Reached by telephone on Monday while he was traveling in Europe, Mr. Kolbe declined to answer questions about the page's complaint or Mr. Foley's case.  In a brief conversation, he said: 'We'll have a statement on that.  We'll have a statement on that.'" 

Here are the latest polls:
USA Today/Gallup
New York Times/CBS
CNN
Washington Post/ABC

The Washington Post reports that Republican campaign officials now expect to lose "at least seven House seats and as many as 30."  The magic number is 15.  "GOP officials are urging lawmakers to focus exclusively on local issues and leave it to party leaders to mitigate the Foley controversy by accusing Democrats of trying to politicize it.  At the same time, the White House plans to amplify national security issues... after North Korea's reported nuclear test, in hopes of shifting the debate away from casualties and controversy...  These efforts are aimed largely at prodding disaffected conservatives to vote for GOP candidates despite their unease." 

The Chicago Tribune writes up the polls and adds, "A political strategist for a Republican-leaning business group said that a pollster who has been tracking competitive congressional races for the group has christened Sept. 29--the day the Foley messages were disclosed--as 'Black Friday.'" 

The Philadelphia Inquirer: "Events have changed fast in the battle for control of the House.  Just a couple of weeks ago, Republicans were seeking to capitalize on some rare good news.  Gas prices were declining, and President Bush's approval rating was climbing a notch as he traveled the nation stressing the need to hang tough in the war on terrorism."  

NBC's Chip Reid reported yesterday that Speaker Dennis Hastert canceled a previously scheduled fundraiser in New Jersey last night for Rep. Scott Garrett (R).

The scandal has caused a revolution in late-night comedy, Bloomberg says, because it "means that no more will any joke linking sex and politics automatically invoke the name Bill Clinton."  "More than laughs are at stake.  That comedians have latched on to the Foley scandal will extend the life of the story...  The combined average nightly viewership for the six most popular late-night shows, including Leno, Letterman and Stewart, is 16.2 million people, according to figures from Nielsen Media Research." 

Two upcoming court dates will keep the influence-peddling scandal involving disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff in the headlines just before the midterms, says NBC's Joel Seidman.  This Friday, former Rep. Bob Ney of Ohio is scheduled to enter formal guilty pleas to accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in trips, meals and other gifts in exchange for taking official action on behalf of Abramoff's clients.  And on October 27, former White House official David Safavian is scheduled to be sentenced on lying and obstruction-of-justice charges relating to a golf junket to Scotland he took with Abramoff and Ney.

With jury selection beginning today in the criminal trial of Ohio coin-dealer Tom Noe, a liberal group has released a video linking Noe with several Republicans running for statewide office, the Columbus Dispatch reports. 

"Four weeks before the midterm elections," today's conference "allows Bush to return to the politically safe issue of education and child safety," notes the AP.  "But the federal role in making schools safer is limited because education remains mainly a local matter.  The White House chose to host a national sharing of ideas, hoping to seize a moment when people are focused on preventing violence...  No new policies are expected; strategies for keeping schools safe are widely known." 

The AP is the latest to write about the Republican National Committee's "firewall strategy" of investing in the Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee Senate races to maintain the party's majority in that chamber.  GOP officials "said the decision has caused friction with officials at the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which historically has been the only party entity to run commercials on behalf of its candidates.  The move also raises questions about the priority assigned by the RNC to races in other states where Republicans are in jeopardy - Pennsylvania, Montana and Rhode Island among them." 

Six African-American Senate and gubernatorial candidates are on the ballot, "more than at any time in U.S. history; even more unusual is that three of the candidates are Republicans," Bloomberg notes, though only two, both Democrats, seem to have a realistic shot at winning. 

In CALIFORNIA, the Sacramento Bee covers unions and public employees yesterday blasting Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) for calling his 2005 special election initiatives "good ideas" during Saturday's debate.  "Schwarzenegger campaign spokeswoman Julie Soderlund said that the remarks during the debate and afterward did not take away from his often-repeated comments that the special election, overall, was a mistake." 

In CONNECTICUT, Rev. Al Sharpton accused Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I) of "flagrant race baiting" yesterday, after Lieberman called Sharpton's decision to endorse Democrat Ned Lamont "a remarkable moment" in speaking to Jewish supporters last week in New York. 

A new Quinnipiac Poll shows FLORIDA gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist (R) with a 10-point lead over Democratic opponent Jim Davis, with very few voters undecided.  Also, the daughter of a slain civil rights activists has agreed to appear in an ad for Crist.  Evangeline Moore, whose parents were murdered in 1951, finally agreed because it was Crist, as state attorney general, who reopened her parents' murder case, whose trail had run cold for almost 55 years.

Reporters from the Des Moines Register have been going door-to-door polling residents on who they'll vote for in IOWA's gubernatorial contest -- Chet Culver (D) or Jim Nussle (R).  They have found that a number of people, especially independents, are largely undecided: "...some undecided voters have soured on the race because of the candidates' finger-pointing in campaign ads and don't feel passionately about either contender." 

Bush's low approval rating in NEW HAMPSHIRE -- 36% -- could hurt Republican House candidates' chances there, reports the AP. 

In the VIRGINIA Senate race, incumbent George Allen (R) and opponent Jim Webb (D) took part in their final debate last night.  Allen focused on "taxes, same-sex marriage and a dislike of liberals.  Webb, running as a Democrat, stressed the Iraq war and economic fairness as he appealed for support from independents and Republicans," says the Washington Post, which recaps how this race unexpectedly became a dead heat. 

Bloomberg reports that Allen's not completely disclosed stock options reports by the AP "were worth as much as $1.1 million at one point, according to a review of Senate disclosure forms and U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings.  The records appear to contradict remarks he made to the Associated Press" that his options "'were worthless.'" 

The Los Angeles Times takes its turn considering how GOP Gov. Mitt Romney's Mormon faith might be a hindrance to a presidential bid.  "A recent Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll found that most religious barriers to high office had crumbled, but that 35% of Americans would not vote for a Mormon president." 

Romney, "who drew fire for calling the Big Dig a 'tar baby' during an Iowa speech and later saying he was unaware the expression was a racial epithet, will be the featured speaker today at a Detroit leadership summit on improving race relations," reports the Boston Herald.  "The speech is politically important for Romney's presidential hopes, especially now that rival GOP presidential front-runner Virginia Sen. George Allen is under fire for racial comments... and allegations that he slurred blacks in the past." 

The Wall Street Journal weighs Democratic Sen. Chris Dodd's late start and says his "considerations in jumping in reflect as much as anyone's just how the war on terror since 9/11 and the continuing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan might define the contest to choose Mr. Bush's successor.  Most significantly, Mr. Dodd is calculating that Americans will rethink their affinity for governors and self-styled Washington 'outsiders'...  In a post-9/11 world, his thinking goes, perhaps an experienced senator seasoned in foreign policy -- read, Mr. Dodd -- would be more the ticket."

Sen. John Kerry (D) campaigns with the wife of laid-up Senate nominee Jack Carter and House candidate Tessa Hafen in Nevada, home of the party's new second-in-the-nation caucus.

The top two members of the House Ethics Committee have sent a letter to all members of Congress notifying them that they're expected to come forth to the committee with any and all information regarding inappropriate contact with a page by former Rep. Mark Foley "or any other member of the House." The letter is dated October 6. It also instructs members to contact any House pages they may have sponsored, either currently or in the past.

A Senior Pentagon official tells NBC there's no active consideration for US military response to the claim by North Korea that it's conducted a test of a nuclear device. "What would you do?" asked the official, who also said the status of US military forces in the region has not been heightened as a result of the North Koreans' claim. This official said that the United States has no plans to conduct a unilateral naval blockade of North Korea, adding that a naval blockade, which is considered an act of war, would have to be conducted internationally in conjunction with the United Nations, and there's no movement by the United Nations to undertake such action.

In a statement this morning, President Bush declared, "Threats will not lead to a brighter future for the North Korean people, nor weaken the resolve of the United States and our allies to achieve the de-nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Today's claim by North Korea serves only to raise tensions, while depriving the North Korean people of the increased prosperity and better relations with the world offered by the implementation of the joint statement of the six-party talks." Some Democrats have seized upon the nuclear test as an example of the "failed policies of the Bush Administration," as Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) put it to reporters while pausing during New York's Columbus Day parade.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Twenty-nine days before election day...  Before the news broke of North Korea's nuclear test, it had been hard to imagine what events might pop up over the next four weeks to provide Republicans with some relief from the negative storylines of the Foley scandal and Iraq, where the rate of US troop casualties has shot up.  Voters continue to call Iraq their top issue for the midterm elections, and the Foley scandal eclipsed last week's stock market highs and gas price and unemployment lows. 

The news out of North Korea, bad as it might be for the Administration's diplomatic efforts there, returns Bush to the bully pulpit -- he'll make a statement at 9:45 am -- and may help Republicans return the focus to the more favorable, broader security debate.  For example, Republicans occasionally hit certain Democrats for opposing a missile defense shield.  But the ongoing House Ethics Committee and Justice Department probes will keep the Foley scandal in the news. 

The White House and GOP leadership continue to stand behind Speaker Dennis Hastert, with President Bush scheduled to appear with Hastert at an open-press fundraising event in Chicago on Thursday.  Political observers are watching for signs that the scandal has hurt the party's midterm election outlook on two levels -- in national public opinion surveys, and through less obvious but equally crucial blows to party fundraising and turnout efforts.  The latest Newsweek Poll has Bush's job approval rating at 33% and Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot test by 12 points among adults.  The poll also finds that more than half of those surveyed think Hastert was aware of Foley's behavior and covered it up.  The better clues, though, will come from polls of likely voters, which is where real signs of disillusionment among the GOP base would show up.

Bush's event with Hastert on Thursday isn't the only damage-control effort on his schedule this week.  He'll also meet with the head of the Southern Baptist Convention at the White House on Wednesday.  Per its website, the organization declares that homosexuality "is not a 'valid alternative lifestyle'...  It is not, however, unforgivable sin.  The same redemption available to all sinners is available to homosexuals." 

Social conservatives reportedly were dispirited even before the Foley scandal arose because they felt the GOP-run Congress didn't address enough of their agenda this year.  The scandal makes it that much more likely that the party's turnout operation is going to have to rely on paid and out-of-state volunteers on election day.  The Republican National Committee's vaunted 72-hour Program helped Sen. Lincoln Chafee get renominated and helped the party retain a California House seat in a special election this year, but both races cost the party a couple million bucks, raising questions about whether they'll be able to replicate that effort in dozens of races simultaneously on November 7.

The scandal also has interfered with the leadership's own efforts to get Republicans elected.  Some candidates are canceling events with Hastert.  Other Hastert events which stay on the books may bring in less money.  House campaign committee chair Tom Reynolds is now absorbed with winning his own, suddenly very difficult re-election campaign.  Hastert and his colleagues are mixing their messages by saying on the one hand that "the buck stops here," while on the other hand continuing to allege that Democrats are to blame.  Meanwhile, TV and radio ads mentioning the Foley scandal, paid for by Democratic candidates, committees, and interest groups, are popping up in races around the country. 

The Cook Political Report updated its House race ratings last Friday, adding a number of GOP-held seats to the vulnerable column: "Republicans currently have 43 seats in the competitive column - 25 of those districts are in Toss-up and three are in Lean Democratic," House analyst Amy Walter writes.  "Last week the number was 37.  Democrats continue to have just nine seats in the competitive category.  None are in toss-up." 

We'd note that several of the Republican-held districts where the Cook ratings have changed for the worse are districts which President Bush and Vice President Cheney have visited recently to raise money.  Those include traditionally safe districts held by Reps. Richard Pombo and John Doolittle in California and open seats in Nevada and Florida.  This suggests that White House political staffers are keeping their ears to the ground and responding quickly to signs of softening -- but it also means that even before the Foley scandal, Republicans were confronting a broadening pool of vulnerable seats.

And just about every hot Senate race of the cycle will host a debate this week:

The Washington Post says North Korea's "nuclear test last night may well be regarded as a failure of the Bush administration's nuclear nonproliferation policy...  Yet a number of senior U.S. officials have said privately that they would welcome a... test, regarding it as a clarifying event that would forever end the debate within the Bush administration about whether to solve the problem through diplomacy or through tough actions designed to destabilize North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's grip on power." 

When Senate Armed Services chair John Warner (R) suggested late last week that the Administration give the Iraqi government 90 days to end the sectarian violence there, it was interpreted as one of the White House's chief stalwarts on Iraq straying off the reservation.  But while that may well be true, the White House might not be so averse to everything it's hearing.

Armed Services ranking member Carl Levin (D) told reporters last Friday that Administration officials -- including Bush himself -- have encouraged him to publicly make a similar-sounding case -- that the Iraqis have "a couple of months to resolve their difficulties and to reduce the violence."  More Levin: "I believe within the next few months that the Administration is going to finally reach this point... and I think that [Zalmay] Khalizad, our ambassador, already has."  Potential presidential candidate and Sen. Joe Biden (D) told reporters that the Administration may eventually rely on the bipartisan Iraq Study Group as a means for changing course in Iraq while not appearing to cave into Democratic pressure.

Seemingly on cue, Iraq Study Group co-chair James Baker said yesterday that "Iraq has about 'two or three months' to improve its security situation...  Although the Iraq Study Group is holding its findings until after the November elections, Mr. Baker has said he does not think an immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq should be under consideration." 

On the Sunday shows, Republicans said the Foley matter "will make it more difficult for the GOP to keep control of Congress in November…  Republicans, while cautioning that '30 days is an eternity' in the congressional campaigns leading to Election Day on Nov. 7, acknowledge that the scandal makes it difficult to make their own messages heard." 

Prominent social conservative Gary Bauer told Bloomberg that the scandal could weaken turnout among the party's base. 

But the New York Times found otherwise when it traveled to southeastern Virginia, a battleground in the midterm elections, to see if the scandal will compel Christian conservatives to abandon the GOP.  "...[M]any said the episode only reinforced their reasons to vote for their two Republican incumbents in neck-and-neck re-election fights, Representative Thelma Drake and Senator George Allen" -- because they blame Foley, not the party. 

Bob Novak writes that Hastert's scheduled appearance this week at an Illinois reception featuring President Bush "will be an embarrassing distraction…  As the most prominent Republican officeholder in Illinois, Hastert could not be removed from this event." 

The New York Post reports that Hastert has backed out of a fundraiser at New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's mansion for vulnerable Rep. John Sweeney (R), citing a scheduling conflict. 

The Sunday New York Times looked at the difficult position faced by gay Republican Hill staffers, operatives, and lawmakers in the face of the Foley scandal. 

There's a growing debate within the GOP on when Hastert's office was first informed about the alleged inappropriate behavior by Foley.  A former congressional aide says that Kirk Fordham is telling the truth about informing the House GOP leadership in 2004, per NBC's Jim Popkin.  This former aide, providing some confirmation of Fordham's timeline, had not yet been contacted by the FBI or the House Ethics Committee as of yesterday.  His statements challenge Hastert's version of events and push back by about a year the first time Hastert's office was made aware of a problem with Foley and male pages.

Fordham is scheduled to testify before the House Ethics Committee this week, says USA Today, which also reports that "White House press secretary Tony Snow is speaking at a Hastert fundraiser Saturday in Illinois." 

The Washington Post reports that one other GOP member knew about Foley's e-mails as far back as 2000.  Rep. Jim Kolbe, the only openly gay Republican in Congress, is retiring this year.  "The revelation pushes back by at least five years the date when a member of Congress has acknowledged learning of Foley's behavior with former pages."  Kolbe's spokesperson told the Post that "'corrective action' was taken," but also "said she has not yet determined whether that action went beyond Kolbe's confrontation with Foley." 

The AP, pointing out that Foley himself has escaped the House probe by resigning, notes, "If the House ethics committee finds evidence of a Republican cover-up, many lawmakers could be in jeopardy, facing consequences that range from a mild rebuke in a committee report to a House vote of censure or expulsion.  Unlike the committee's usual practice of identifying the investigative target at the outset, this probe is wide open." 

House Government Reform chair Tom Davis, who used to chair the GOP House campaign committee, said yesterday "that anyone who participated in any cover-up of the Mark Foley page scandal should be removed from power." 

The Sunday Washington Post listed questions the two probes will try to answer: 1) "Who decided to keep word of the Louisiana e-mails closely held, so that only a handful of House Republicans -- and no Democrats -- knew of them?"  2) "Did Trandahl and Shimkus know exactly what the e-mails to the Louisiana boy said?"  3) "How did House Majority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) handle word of the Louisiana e-mails?"  4) "Did Hastert know about the e-mails to the Louisiana boy?"  And 5) "Was Hastert's staff alerted to earlier concerns about Foley's behavior toward teenage pages?" 

The Sunday Los Angeles Times reported on a former page who had a sexual relationship with Foley when he was 21, after he left the page program.  "The former page's account is consistent with Foley's assertion that he did not have sexual relations with minors...  Yet the former page's exchanges with Foley offer a glimpse of possible predatory behavior by the congressman." 

In general, it's not a good time for lawmakers on the ballot to be found having broken ethics rules.  The AP reported yesterday that Virginia Sen. George Allen (R) failed to disclose stock options from high-tech companies on whose boards he sat, and "also asked the Army to help another business that gave him similar options...  In interviews, Allen and his staff sought to play down his corporate dealings, saying they were a good learning experience but did not lead to extraordinary riches - except for a quarter-million-dollar windfall from" one stock.  Allen and his Democratic opponent, Jim Webb, are scheduled to debate in Richmond this evening. 

Late Friday, word came that Susan Ralston, a top aide to Karl Rove who had previously work for Jack Abramoff, had resigned.  "As Rove's top staffer and a special assistant to the president, Ralston becomes the closest aide to Bush to leave in a scandal that has so far enveloped lobbyists, lawmakers, Capitol Hill aides and an administration procurement official while, until now, sparing the inner sanctum of the White House," said the Saturday Los Angeles Times. 

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin has endorsed Rep. William Jefferson (D) in his bid for re-election despite that $90,000 found in Jefferson's freezer, noting that Jefferson was one of a few lawmakers to stand by him in his own race earlier this year. 

CNBC's Patti Domm advises that oil will continue to be a dominant feature of this week's markets.  The stock market will focus on earnings; the first major third-quarter earnings will start rolling out tomorrow with Alcoa.  General Electric reports on Friday.

Gas prices have fallen about 75 cents below their high in August, Reuters reports, "but prices look to be headed back up, an analyst warned." 

The Saturday Wall Street Journal previewed another event on Bush's schedule this week: The White House will release the final deficit tally for the fiscal year ended September 30.  "The news will be good: The deficit is likely to come in well below the previous year's $318 billion, perhaps as low as $250 billion...  That will allow President Bush to boast that he has met his goal of halving the deficit... ahead of schedule."  Still, the Journal says, "[d]espite the good news about last year -- largely the result of a remarkable 12% surge in tax receipts from individuals and corporations that overwhelmed a nearly 9% increase in spending -- the smart money says the deficit is very likely to get deeper from here."   

The Wall Street Journal examines how candidates in top races are putting potentially damaging video of their opponents on YouTube. 

The Washington Post looks at how Democratic candidates in upper South states and districts are showing promise "by shrewdly combining biography, personal style and artful positioning on divisive social issues." 

The Sacramento Bee says the Foley scandal is even reverberating in the congressional contest in CALIFORNIA between Rep. John Doolittle (R) and challenger Charlie Brown (D).  Doolittle, the paper notes, has criticized Foley's behavior but has refused to return past campaign donations he's received from Foley. 

Democratic officials and operatives worry not only that gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides failed to damage Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) in their one and only debate last Saturday night, but that Angelides will drag down the party's whole statewide ticket. 

The New York Times spotlights the Senate and gubernatorial races in MICHIGAN, where the state's poor economy has become the number-one issue. 

The Los Angeles Times takes a long look at the effort to overturn SOUTH DAKOTA's abortion ban, the strictest in the country, which makes it a crime for doctors to provide abortions except to save the life of the mother.  Polling has shown stronger support for the referendum than for the ban itself, though the gap is narrowing.  

In WASHINGTON STATE, shortly after vulnerable GOP Rep. Dave Reichert welcomed Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman to his district last Friday, Reichert's campaign put out a release titled, "Reichert Recognized for Boldly Defying Bush," based on National Journal's vote ratings.  The first line: "Congressman Dave Reichert puts the interests of Washington's Eighth Congressional District first, regardless of where the Administration or House leaders are on an issue."

Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is picking up momentum in South Carolina, where conservative Republicans "want to derail John McCain's straight talk express," The State wrote yesterday.  "Their goal is to head off McCain at the pass - meaning South Carolina - and keep him from winning the Republican presidential nomination." 

The Wall Street Journal looks at how the oh-eighters are out campaigning hard for midterm election candidates.  "The exercise isn't just about helping others." 

Sen. Barack Obama (D) raises money today for Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar in Minneapolis, MN and for Senate candidate Sherrod Brown in Cleveland.  And Gen. Wesley Clark campaigned in Iowa over the weekend, where he called for a new direction in the Iraq war that can only come with a new president, reports the Des Moines Register.  "In a conversation with Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Ia., and Rep. Jim Oberstar, D-Minn., he pounded a fist into one hand when making the point, telling them he would do 'everything I can' to change the course of the war.'" 

Those inside Sen. John Kerry's inner circle say they're convinced he'll run for president again, reports the Boston Globe.  "Kerry himself insisted he has not decided whether to run.  But more than a dozen longtime loyalists interviewed for this story said they had no doubt that Kerry would attempt what a host of Washington doubters think unimaginable: become the first Democrat in half a century to lose a general election and be renominated four years later." 

And Sen. Russ Feingold (D) tells the New York Daily News that he's the best man qualified to win his party's nomination.  "'Of all the people who are being considered for President there's only one person that actually voted against the Iraq war and one person who voted against the USA Patriot Act,' he said.  'People know that - that this is the real thing.'" 

From NBC's Libby Leist and Ken Strickland
On the heels of Senate Armed Services Committee chair John Warner's call yesterday for the Bush Administration to give the Iraqi government 90 days to reduce the sectarian violence, two Democratic colleagues of Warner's have stepped forward to shed some light on this development.

Carl Levin, ranking Democrat on Armed Services, said that Administration officials -- including President Bush himself -- are encouraging him and one other Senator to publicly make the case that the Iraqis have "a couple of months to resolve their difficulties and to reduce the violence." But Levin thinks that message would be "100 times" more effective coming Bush. "It's the Administration that's got to deliver that message. And the effect will be to force [Iraqi leaders] to take hold of their nation and to resolve their problems politically," said Levin. "I believe within the next few months that the Administration is going to finally reach this point... and I think that [Zalmay] Khalizad, our ambassador, already has."

Potential presidential candidate and Sen. Joe Biden (D), meanwhile, told reporters this afternoon that he's heard from top Senate Republicans that the Administration may eventually rely on the Iraq Study Group, led by James Baker and Lee Hamilton, as a means for changing course in Iraq while not appearing to cave into Democratic pressure. Biden, who has testified before the group, said he expects that by the end of the year, they will propose a strategy that differs from the Administration's current plan. He offered that he's "absolutely convinced and certain that there are very serious people" in the State Department and at the Pentagon "who in fact think something along the lines that we're talking about has to take place." He added that he hadn't heard from high-level Administration officials directly that they'd use the Iraq Study Group to change course, but that "several Republican Senators" told him that.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Although most other Republicans are now rallying around Speaker Dennis Hastert, a Republican candidate running for Senate in the deep-blue state of New Jersey -- Tom Kean Jr. -- is calling for Hastert to resign from his leadership position in the wake of the Foley scandal, making him (to the best of our knowledge) the first high-profile GOP candidate to demand this. Hastert "is the head of the institution and this happened on his watch," Kean said in a recently released statement. "This disturbing situation is another reason why the public holds the Congress in such low esteem."

Kean, of course, is running against a member of Congress: incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez (D), who has been dogged by allegations of ethical wrongdoing. Kean is also running for office in a state dominated by Democrats -- but Republicans view the race as perhaps their best Senate pickup opportunity this year.

The biggest news in the September jobs report is not the underwhelming 51,000 jobs created last month, or the upward revision of the August number to 188,000 new jobs from 128,000. The big story is that a previously unknown 810,000 new jobs were actually added to US payrolls for the year through March 2006. This is the biggest revision to payrolls in at least the past decade, and possibly ever.

This was a massive whiff by the jobs counters at the Labor Department. In today's hyper-computerized world of advanced statistics, a 45% upward revision to any data, let alone the most important data series the US government prints, is nothing less than a scandal. From an economics perspective, it's as big a mistake as the CIA missing the WMD call in Iraq.

The reasons for the miss are complicated and even poorly understood within the government. But suffice it to say, it should prompt an urgent rethinking about how we measure job growth. If we're not spending enough on data collection, we need to spend more. If we're not allocating resources correctly, we need to reallocate. Getting the jobs numbers right -- or at least close to correct -- is critical. Markets, Fed policymakers, and individual investors all rely on these numbers to make decisions. It's not way to run the most advanced economy on the face of the earth.