North Korea's government views the UN sanctions as "a declaration of war, and the country will 'deal merciless blows' if the nation's sovereignty is violated," per the AP. 

The AP also says the detainee bill Bush will sign this morning "would protect detainees from blatant abuses during questioning... but does not require that any of them be granted legal counsel.  Also, it specifically bars detainees from filing habeas corpus petitions...  The swift implementation of the law" -- just six weeks after Bush called for it -- "is a rare bit of good news for Bush as casualties mount in Iraq in daily violence." 

Bush yesterday reassured Iraq's Prime Minister that the United States will not set a timetable for withdrawal, even though some military officials and GOP politicians are unhappy with the Iraq government's progress, the New York Times says.  "The White House also suggested that it would not necessarily accept the recommendations of" the bipartisan Iraq Study Group. 

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchinson (R) is the latest Republican to suggest that the Administration's current approach isn't working.  She said "that more consideration should be given to dividing the country into semi-autonomous regions to help reduce conflicts…  Allowing the Kurds, Sunni and Shia to govern their own territories while sharing in Iraq's oil revenues through a national revenue stream could help quell the bloodletting, Hutchison told the Houston Chronicle editorial board." 

Roll Call reports that Karen Weldon's firm, Solutions North America, "received a $500,000 public relations contract to represent Itera in September 2002."  Itera is the Jacksonville, FL-based "U.S. arm of a Russian company run by Igor Makarov...  The contract was inked just days before the elder Weldon rounded up 30 Members to attend a dinner at the Library of Congress in honor of Makarov."  Weldon is blaming the probe on "Democrats and the liberal watchdog group Citizens for Ethics and Responsibility in Washington."  He "offered no proof to substantiate those claims, although he said CREW had written to Justice earlier this year seeking a probe."

The investigation focuses on Weldon's support of Itera "while that company paid fees to Solutions North America...  The congressman, for example, intervened on Itera's behalf when U.S. officials canceled a federal grant to the company.  He also encouraged U.S. companies to do business with Itera at a time when its reputation had been sullied by accusations of Russian corruption.  Weldon said in a prepared statement that he had done nothing wrong and would cooperate in the investigation '100 percent.'" 

"An internal investigation of a senior aide to Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) and spousal connections to Congressional earmarks found that no illegal or unethical activity occurred," Roll Call reports.  "However, the report found that Senate ethics rules do not adequately address the large number of spouses, children and other immediate family members who also work as lobbyists, prompting Specter to institute a series of changes to his internal rules of conduct."

USA Today undertook an extensive study and finds that a bunch of relatives of members of Congress and Hill staffers have been able to "cash in when lawmakers spend taxpayer dollars...  The connections are so pervasive that, in 2005 alone, appropriations bills contained about $750 million for projects championed by lobbyists whose relatives were involved in writing the spending bills." 

In announcing that he'll amend his ethics report to more thoroughly account for that land sale, Reid "blamed the AP story as the 'latest attempt' by Republicans to affect the election...  Reid also announced he failed to disclose two other land transactions on his prior ethics reports and would account for those on his amended reports." 

Also, "Reid has been using campaign donations instead of his personal money to pay Christmas bonuses for the support staff at the Ritz-Carlton, where he lives in an upscale condominium.  Federal election law bars candidates from converting political donations for personal use," the AP says. 

House Government Reform ranking member Henry Waxman has sent RNC chair Ken Mehlman a letter asking him if he ever accepted U2 concert tickets from Jack Abramoff while working at the White House, which could have been illegal. 

Want to keep score?
Members who have resigned under an ethical cloud: Cunningham (R), DeLay (R), Foley (R)
Members being threatened with expulsion by their own colleagues for being under an ethical cloud: Jefferson (D), Ney (R)
Members who have given up committee seats under ethical clouds: Mollohan (D), Jefferson (D)

 

The New York Times reports on how Bush last month held a meeting with conservative radio hosts who have disagreed with the White House and GOP on immigration, and more recently on the handling of the Foley scandal.  "Strategists on both sides agree that the party's greatest hope for holding control of Congress now rests with its ability to get core Republicans to vote, and that talk radio, which reaches millions of them, is crucial to the task."  The story adds that the White House will hold a kind of talk-radio summit on October 24. 

"Bush's political pitch boils down to two words and one argument," notes USA Today in a look at how Bush's stump speeches are put together.  "The words are taxes and terrorism.  The argument: Democrats are wrong on both...  Like an old song with new verses, Bush's basic text is constantly updated.  White House communications director Kevin Sullivan said most of Bush's speech comes from the president's handwritten notes, from an outline he developed." 

Although Cheney's favorability ratings are low, the New York Times takes a front-page look at "Cheney Country" -- the military bases, hotel ballrooms, and private homes in the reddest of red states where he's adored. 

The White House press office said that as of yesterday, Tony Snow had participated or is scheduled to participate in a total of 20 political events: 17 fundraisers and three get-out-the-vote events. 

Bush's "legislative affairs team brushes aside the idea of large-scale Democratic victories in November," Roll Call reports.  "On Bush's 2007 agenda, they say, will be some long-standing items, such as reforming Social Security and Medicare, a comprehensive immigration overhaul and reauthorization of the No Child Left Behind Act.  In the nearer term, the White House will focus on wrapping up any outstanding business as the 109th Congress draws to a close."

If Democrats win control of the House, close observers see little happening during the scheduled lame-duck session in November.  NBC's Mike Viqueira says the main outstanding issue is $463 billion in discretionary spending (defense and homeland security spending were taken care of before Congress left for recess), which the House could try to pass in November, or put off with a continuing resolution until January.  If Republicans retain control of the House, the lame-duck session could look quite different, with Republicans trying to pass tax-cut extensions, more piecemeal immigration reforms, the NSA warrantless wiretapping bill, and trade bills, just to name a few.  Boehner has informed Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi that a GOP-run House wouldn't leave till close to Christmas. 

"Some California election officials worry that a lengthy ballot and the 192-page voter guides sent to 12 million homes for the Nov. 7 election will discourage would-be voters...  This year's ballot lists candidates for eight statewide offices, 13 propositions and local ballot measures in nearly all 58 counties.  California Secretary of State Bruce McPherson said 24 counties have mail-in ballots requiring 63 cents of postage." 

The NAACP announced yesterday that it will send volunteer observers to polling places in 10 states to notify the Justice Department of any serious problems it spots.  The states: Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, Michigan, Mississippi, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas.  Beyond Maryland, where the group will base its HQ, the other nine "were chosen because they have pivotal elections, high concentrations of black voters or a history of polling problems, including Gulf Coast states Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida and Texas." 

There are several ways to evaluate fundraising and spending: at the party committee level, or candidate by candidate.  USA Today reports a surge in fundraising by a bunch of top Democratic House candidates, but heavier spending on ads by the GOP House campaign committee over its Democratic counterpart.  Analysts tell the paper that the late surge in money suggests the momentum lies with Democrats. 

A Washington Post analysis finds that "Democrats spent more heavily over the summer and early autumn than their Republican rivals in pivotal House districts, leaving themselves at a disadvantage of more than 2 to 1 in money on hand." 

Former President Clinton is scheduled to headline a fundraising event in San Francisco just days before the election, where he'll raise money for House candidates in competitive races, joined by Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Rahm Emanuel and singer Jackson Browne. 

Democratic Senate campaign committee chair Chuck Schumer will do an off-camera briefing for reporters at 2:30 pm.

After losing his special election a year ago, MSNBC.com examines CALIFORNIA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's political turnaround now that he seems to be cruising to re-election.  "Analysts explain that Schwarzenegger's apparent comeback ... can be attributed to an improving state economy, his move back to the political center, and his opponent's struggling campaign.  But perhaps more than anything else, they say, it's due to his ability to learn from his mistakes.  'This isn't a guy who did a sequel to the "Last Action Hero,"' noted Jack Pitney, a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College.  'He has a very good sense of what works and what doesn't.  He doesn't repeat mistakes.'" 

The Washington Post says Democratic nominee Ned Lamont's Senate bid in CONNECTICUT is "emblematic of the pitfalls of trying to marry a political insurgency with the party establishment."  Also, Lieberman "has promised to caucus with the Democrats.  On Monday he said he wants Democrats to take control of the Senate and House." 

The Hartford Courant says GOP nominee Alan Schlesinger, in a "forceful" debate performance last night, "reminded voters, the media and possibly his own party Monday that [Lieberman] and [Lamont] are not replaying their Democratic primary" by "repeatedly asserting that he is the only Republican." 

The Miami Herald writes up FLORIDA Gov. Jeb Bush's campaign stop for Joe Negron (R), who's seeking to fill Mark Foley's House seat.  Tomorrow, the Florida Democratic party is scheduled to be in court to "stop election officials from posting signs that say a vote for Foley counts as a vote for Negron." 

Sen. John Kerry campaigns for his party's candidates in IOWA.  The Des Moines Register reports that Iowa legislative candidates have received more than $1.6 million this year from PACs formed by potential presidential candidates. 

In MARYLAND, GOP Senate nominee Michael Steele has brought in Don King to help him court African-American Democratic voters. 

Former President Clinton's appearance on behalf of MASSACHUSETTS gubernatorial nominee Deval Patrick (D) raised about $2 million for the campaign yesterday, reports the Boston Herald. Clinton "said [GOP nominee Kerry] Healey's campaign reminded him of his own battles with Republicans, who he said admitted to playing dirty."  Another Democratic rock star, Sen. Barack Obama, is expected to campaign for Patrick on Thursday. 

Healey, meanwhile, spent yesterday distancing herself from retiring Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and his appearance at the Family Research Council's Liberty Sunday event, during which Romney "ripped" the state's same-sex marriage law. The Boston Herald writes that Healey "stopped short of saying Romney's presidential ambitions have been a detriment to her gubernatorial bid." 

Sen. Joe Biden was in NEW HAMPSHIRE yesterday campaigning for a House candidate.  He warned students at the New Hampshire Technical Institute that "[w]ith no change in policy,... more soldiers will be needed in Iraq.  As it becomes more difficult to sustain an all-volunteer military, the country may find itself soon debating whether to return to a draft to maintain enlistment numbers, Biden said." 

A day after the New York Times reported that national Republicans might be decreasing their financial assistance to OHIO GOP Sen. Mike DeWine, a new Quinnipiac University poll shows DeWine trailing challenger Sherrod Brown (D) by 12 points among likely voters, 53%-41%.  

The Boston Globe examines the role Bush is playing in the RHODE ISLAND Senate race, where Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse is talking a lot more about him than is moderate GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee. 

VIRGINIA Sen. George Allen (R) told the Washington Times in an ed board meeting that he "will be re-elected by sticking to conservative issues, even as national liberals are funneling cash to his Democratic opponent and linking the senator to an unpopular president."  Allen separated himself from Bush by saying that "No Child Left Behind Act forces Virginia to 'dumb down' its Standards of Learning, which were created when Mr. Allen was governor," and also that "he learned too late about the real cost of Mr. Bush's Medicare prescription-drug program, which he supported with the intent of helping the frail afford prescriptions." 

And the new Washington Post poll shows majority support (53%) for the gay marriage ban that's also on the ballot in Virginia in November, but some analysts say that's a surprisingly low level of support given the state's conservative reputation. 

From NBC's Elizabeth Wilner
Despite its fundraising advantage over Democrats, the Republican National Committee is finding itself in the unusual position of having to defend its campaign spending decisions. After the New York Times reported this morning that national Republicans are cutting back their investments in Sen. Mike DeWine's re-election campaign in Ohio, RNC chair Ken Mehlman did a conference call with local media to reiterate the RNC's commitment to DeWine and to the state.

"Ohio is and remains an incredibly top priority for us. It's one I'm very confident Mike DeWine can and will win. The evidence of our commitment is that we're putting our money where our mouth is. No state will receive more resources from the Republican National Committee than Ohio. From this point forward, we will spend millions more on turnout and millions more on message. We have a huge staff. And intend and have right now a very aggressive program," Mehlman said on the call, per a transcript provided by the RNC.

The Audacity of Hope, Sen. Barack Obama's second book, will be uncrated at bookstores everywhere on Tuesday. His publicity tour hits all of the heavyweights. It began over the weekend with Time Magazine, which gave its cover to the senator with 99th lowest seniority. Joe Klein wrote the lead article (which included this fascinating sentence to describe how Obama elicits different reactions: "The African Americans tend to be fairly reserved--quiet pride, knowing nods and be-careful-now looks. The white people, by contrast, are out of control").

On Wednesday, Obama appears on Oprah from Chicago. Thursday and Friday are devoted to conventional interviews on The Today Show, Tom Joyner's radio show, NPR, Tavis Smiley, and a variety of niche media. Obama tapes 60 Minutes for Sunday, and then on Sunday morning, is Tim Russert's guest on Meet the Press.

BTW: Here is Obama's careful construction about 2008, per Klein: "When the election is over and my book tour is done, I will think about how I can be most useful to the country and how I can reconcile that with being a good dad and a good husband," he says carefully, and then adds, "I haven't completely decided or unraveled that puzzle yet."

No Republican has won a Senate seat in Maryland in a quarter century. But Democrats both in Washington and in Maryland sound a bit fretful about Democrat Ben Cardin's race against this year's Republican candidate, Lt. Gov. Michael Steele.

"The (Cardin) literature is not strong enough," complained Democratic member of the House of Delegates Joanne Benson to Democratic party operative Artie Harris Sunday afternoon at an event in Upper Marlboro, Md. where Cardin was wooing black entrepreneurs. "Strong Democrats in Prince George's County don't want to support Michael Steele, but they do need to know more about Ben," said Benson, who represents a predominantly black district in Prince George's County. Prince George's County is Steele's home turf, and on Saturday he said he hopes to get 35% of the vote there, about 15 points better than GOP candidates usually do.

Racial politics is one reason Democrats sound a bit concerned about Steele. He is an African-American and Cardin defeated African-American rival Kweisi Mfume in the Democratic primary. Referring to the historic scarcity of blacks in top Maryland offices, Steele said, "Does that translate into votes for me? I don't know. That's my job to convince them that I'm worth the risk in November."

At the Upper Marlboro event, standing next to Cardin, Sen. John Kerry (D) addressed the hesitation black voters might feel about Cardin: "I know there are some folks here in Maryland, particularly in the minority community, who sometimes say, 'You know, I go out and I vote Democratic, but what do the Democrats do for me? Well, folks, Democrats haven't had their hands on the levers that can actually deliver since 1994 in the House and Senate and since 2000 in the White House."

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
With 22 days to go, the GOP's ethical issues have proliferated rather than died down. Republican members continue to troop before the Ethics Committee -- including House Majority Leader John Boehner, who's scheduled to appear tomorrow -- in the wake of the Mark Foley scandal.  Rep. Bob Ney (R) of Ohio pled guilty to accepting bribes in exchange for helping disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff and plans to resign.  News media mining recently disclosed e-mails from Abramoff and his associates are reporting on help Abramoff got from the White House, including the current chair of the Republican National Committee. 

And that's just the Foley- and Abramoff-related stuff.  Sen. George Allen has improperly disclosed stock options.  Sen. Arlen Specter is cooperating with a probe of whether one of his staffers directed business to her lobbyist husband.  Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, balancing things out a bit, has asked his chamber's ethics panel to look into whether he improperly disclosed a real estate transaction that reaped him a $700,000 profit.  Longtime Rep. Curt Weldon (R) of Pennsylvania is being investigated by the FBI for potentially steering business to his 28-year-old daughter's consulting firm.

President Bush, who stood with embattled House Speaker Dennis Hastert last week, this week campaigns publicly for another GOP member in Pennsylvania who's airing a TV ad in which he apologizes for having an affair.  By the end of this week, per spokesman Tony Snow, most of Bush's political appearances will be public and held at larger venues.

Even as Bush continues to raise millions for the party, its operatives are redirecting resources away from races they don't expect to win.  The New York Times reports that national Republicans are readjusting their Senate "firewall" and cutting back their investment in Sen. Mike DeWine's re-election campaign in Ohio, a state where Republicans have been particularly hard-hit by scandal.  The RNC rejects the suggestion: "We have invested a significant amount of resources in Ohio and will continue to invest considerable resources in Ohio," communications director Brian Jones tells First Read.  The party's House campaign committee also continues to spend money to protect incumbents there, says spokesman Carl Forti.  Still, Republicans in Washington fear that struggling gubernatorial nominee Ken Blackwell will drag down the entire ticket. 

On that note, with just over three weeks to go, none of the party's hand-picked African-American statewide candidates appear positioned to win.  Gubernatorial nominees Blackwell and Lynn Swann of Pennsylvania and Senate nominee Michael Steele of Maryland all trail their Democratic opponents, Blackwell and Swann by seemingly insurmountable margins.  Two African-American statewide candidates appear positioned to win this cycle, both Democrats: Senate nominee Harold Ford of Tennessee and gubernatorial nominee Deval Patrick of Massachusetts. 

Most of the national attention has gone to Ford and the question of whether or not an African-American can get elected statewide in the South.  Yet a Patrick victory in Massachusetts would be nearly as remarkable, making him the state's first African-American governor, only the second elected anywhere in US history, and the first Democratic governor elected in Massachusetts since Michael Dukakis left office in 1991.  As it happens, Republicans are seeking to defeat Patrick, an attorney, with the same tactic they used to help sink Dukakis' presidential prospects in 1988: accusing him of being soft on crime.  But the attacks take on added resonance because Patrick himself is African-American, and raise the possibility that the sharp accusations will undercut the GOP's broader effort to court black voters.

Lt. Gov. Kerry Healey (R), who lags in the polls, has made Patrick's past efforts to help a convicted rapist (as a lawyer in private practice) and defense of a confessed cop killer (on behalf of the NAACP legal defense fund) her main points of attack.  Healey is hoping to gain support among the state's more conservative white Democrats and women voters by charging that Patrick is soft on crime.  While Massachusetts is known as one of the most liberal states in the nation, no one would say it's because of residents' sentiments toward African-Americans.  Since Healey began these attacks, she has cut Patrick's lead by about half.  After a Boston Herald story last week compelled Patrick to provide details of a 1993 incident in which his sister was raped by her estranged husband, who then spent time in jail, the campaigns began fighting over who disclosed the story for political purposes.  The Boston Globe quoted Dukakis saying it "makes Willie Horton look mild by comparison."

Got calendar? 

 

Today, Bush meets with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and UN Ambassador John Bolton to talk about North Korea and attends a dinner with Muslim leaders.  "North Korea's apparent nuclear test last week triggered the kind of partisan sniping rarely heard when the United States faces an international crisis," notes the Hartford Courant, which focuses on how it played in the already up-and-running presidential race. 

"Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said in an interview with USA TODAY that his government will not force militias to disarm until later this year or early next year, despite escalating violence in Baghdad fueled by death squads and religious warfare.  Al-Maliki's remarks point to a growing gap between the U.S. and Iraqi governments over how to handle growing sectarian violence...  Al-Maliki also predicted a significant U.S. troop withdrawal starting early next year, despite the growing violence." 

Sen. Chuck Hagel has joined his GOP colleagues John Warner and Olympia Snowe (as reported in First Read last week) in calling for a change of course in Iraq. 

Former Secretary of State Jim Baker, now co-chair of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group, does MSNBC's Hardball today.  Baker's group "intends to propose significant changes in the administration's strategy by early next year," reports the Los Angeles Times.  "Two options under consideration would represent reversals of U.S. policy: withdrawing American troops in phases, and bringing neighboring Iran and Syria into a joint effort to stop the fighting...  If the panel recommends overhauling Bush's approach to Iraq, it could give a boost not only to critics of current policy but also to officials in the administration who have argued for broad changes." 

 

The US Capitol Police searched years of records and came up with no indication that the story of Foley showing up drunk in front of the House page dorm is true -- but the incident could have happened without any report being filed, noted the Saturday Washington Post.  Former Foley chief of staff Kirk Fordham was expected to tell the House Ethics Committee in his testimony last week that he believed the incident occurred. 

Another vulnerable Republican incumbent just became more so.  The Justice Department is investigating whether Rep. Curt Weldon of Pennsylvania "traded his political influence for lucrative lobbying and consulting contracts for his daughter...  The FBI has formally referred the matter to the department's Public Integrity Section for additional scrutiny.  At issue are Weldon's efforts between 2002 and 2004 to aid two Russian companies and two Serbian brothers with ties to former Yugoslavian president Slobodan Milosevic." 

The Sunday Los Angeles Times reported on recently disclosed e-mails from Abramoff and his associates, which "provide more detail than the Bush administration has acknowledged about how Abramoff and his team reached into high levels of the White House, not just Capitol Hill, which has been the main focus of the influence-peddling investigation."  One regular and apparently helpful Abramoff contact in the White House: Ken Mehlman, now chair of the [RNC].  "Mehlman said he did not recall the details of his contacts with the Abramoff team," but that "such interactions were part of his job as White House political director." 

On CNN yesterday, Mehlman denied the Times story's lead allegation that he saw to the 2001 ouster of a State Department official who was at odds with Abramoff, says the Financial Times. 

The Financial Times also reports, "A lobbyist associated with Jack Abramoff... met White House officials on 12 occasions in 2003 and 2004 on behalf of an association that represented PartyGaming and other online gaming websites, according to billing records released by Congress."  The Abramoff-engineered effort to scuttle anti-gaming legislation "was largely effective until recently, when Congress passed a bill that, in effect, criminalised gaming." 

As other Republicans fret, President Bush continues to express confidence that Republicans will retain control of Congress, noted the Sunday Washington Post, and Karl Rove is saying that Republicans will lose only eight to 10 seats in the House and that a Democratic takeover in the Senate is "inconceivable."  "The question is whether this is a case of justified confidence -- based on Bush's and Rove's electoral record and knowledge of the money, technology and other assets at their command -- or of self-delusion.  Even many Republicans suspect the latter." 

That said, the San Francisco Chronicle examines how Bush and a Speaker Nancy Pelosi would work together if Democrats take control of the House.  "[T]here is little evidence of warmth, respect or policy agreements between the two.  It is hard to imagine Pelosi and Bush, after demonizing each other for political purposes, developing the relationship forged between Democratic House Speaker Tip O'Neill and Republican President Ronald Reagan, who waged bitter policy battles during the 1980s but came to admire each other and build a friendship."

Vice President Cheney travels to Kentucky, where he'll address a rally with the 101st Airborne Division at Fort Campbell and headline a closed-press fundraiser for vulnerable GOP Rep. Geoff Davis at a private home.

The New York Times peeks at Tony Snow's weekend fundraiser Hastert: "even as the Republican establishment revels in his celebrity… Mr. Snow's extracurricular activities are making some veteran Washington hands, including those with strong Republican ties, deeply uneasy."  That said, "[t]here was, for the record, not a shred of red meat in Mr. Snow's whirlwind performance Saturday night." 

 

The New York Times reports on the GOP's readjustment of its "firewall" strategy to keep control of the Senate.  "Republicans are now pinning their hopes of holding the Senate on three states - Missouri, Tennessee and… probably Virginia - while trying to hold on to the House by pouring money into districts where Republicans have a strong historical or registration advantage…  Republicans also said they would run advertisements in New Jersey this week to test the vulnerability of Senator Robert Menendez." 

The Democratic Senate campaign committee boasts to First Read that five of its candidates -- Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Jim Webb in Virginia, Jon Tester in Montana, Amy Klobuchar in Minnesota, and Sheldon Whitehouse in Rhodes Island -- outraised their GOP counterparts in the third quarter. 

The Sunday Los Angeles Times looked at the difficulties that members -- especially GOP members -- are having because of their ties to the House and to Washington and they run for higher office this year. 

Ethically challenged GOP Reps. John Doolittle and Richard Pombo of CALIFORNIA, both of whom have ties to Abramoff, are now in the most competitive House races in their state, and activists are flocking to their districts to try to help unseat them in November, per the Saturday Los Angeles Times.  "Doolittle and Pombo have characterized the Bay Area activists as carpetbaggers...  Pombo has played up the Bay Area liberal invasion theme in his political mailers. Doolittle is expected to make it the theme of his television ads.  But the volunteers say they have met with little hostility from potential voters." 

In the race to replace GOP Rep. Joel Hefley in his conservative, traditionally Republican district in COLORADO, Hefley himself appears to be boosting Democrats' prospects of capturing the seat by refusing to endorse his party's nominee, saying he has run a "'sleazy, dishonest campaign.'" 

The GOP's gubernatorial nominee is well ahead in his race, but the Saturday Los Angeles Times focused on a handful of FLORIDA House seats that traditionally lean Republican but are looking a lot more competitive lately. 

As many others before it, a new IOWA Poll conducted last week suggests that voter discontent with Republicans in Washington could sweep Democrats into power in the House.  The poll shows 46% of Iowans surveyed saying they would elect a Democrat to the House, while 36% chose Republicans. 

The LOUISIANA Democratic party over the weekend endorsed state Rep. Karen Carter instead of scandal-plagued Rep. William Jefferson. 

Former President Clinton will headline a fundraiser for MASSACHUSETTS Democrats to help Patrick.  Republicans say the event, which is expected to net $1 million, is too little, too late for Patrick's campaign, which suffered week of bad press last week that diminished his lead over Healey. 

In the face of MICHIGAN's struggling economy, Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) has been doling out business subsidies as she seeks re-election, notes the Wall Street Journal.  "The Michigan governor's race serves as a reminder that, for all the attention to scandal and Iraq, the economy remains a factor, particularly in the Midwest, that can sting incumbents of both parties." 

Bob Novak devotes his column to the pro-stem cell ballot initiative in MISSOURI, which polls show might pass.  While the initiative states that it prohibits human cloning, Novak argues that the proposal so narrowly defines cloning that it opens "the door in Missouri to any cloning procedure that takes place outside the womb." 

The Los Angeles Times says PENNSYLVANIA Sen. Rick's Santorum's seemingly likely loss is "a four-alarm fire for conservatives, who are bringing water buckets from all corners of the political world" to try to help him out.  "Santorum is not just a key link between the Republican Party and Christian conservatives...  [H]e is the apotheosis of a younger generation of Republicans... that transformed the party in the 1990s into a more confrontational, ideological political force...  [A] loss by Santorum would be a signifier of the end of that Republican revolution." 

A new Washington Post poll on the VIRGINIA Senate race shows the two contenders basically tied, with Sen. George Allen (R) at 49% and Jim Webb (D) at 47%.  The poll offers both campaigns reasons for concern. 

Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) joined evangelicals for their "Liberty Sunday" telecast from Boston to churches around the country in an effort to motivate social conservatives to go vote.  The main topic of the telecast was banning gay marriage.  "Eight states -- Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin -- will be voting on constitutional amendments that would bar same-sex marriage.  And two days later, on Beacon Hill, the Legislature is to vote on whether to advance toward the ballot a measure that would overturn same-sex marriage in Massachusetts, the only state where it is legal." 

Time magazine devotes its cover to a Democrat who isn't closing the door on running for president in 2008: Sen. Barack Obama. 

Addressing Iowa Democrats at a big fundraising dinner on Saturday night, former President Clinton made only a few references to his wife, who has yet to make a campaign stop in the state.  Even so, says the Washington Post, his visit may have been meant to shore up her standing.  "Iowa Democrats said Clinton's standing reflects more than her absence.  They say there is general unease within the party about her ability to win a general election.  Beyond that, some Democrats are troubled by her support for the war in Iraq long after other Democratic politicians such as Kerry and Edwards had renounced their votes" for the Iraq resolution. 

Speaking at the New Hampshire Jefferson-Jackson dinner over the weekend, Sen. John Kerry (D) used the word 'lie' four times during his speech. 'They,' he said, lied about civil war; lied when they doubted the credibility of reports on Iraqi fatalities; lied in faulting former President Bill Clinton for the North Korean missile test; lied about the Congressional page scandal being a Democratic ploy to win the congressional elections." 

Sen. Joe Biden (D) also was in New Hampshire over the weekend, and said he's "confident" that Democrats will take back the House and "hopeful" they'll do the same with the Senate.  Biden predicted that the "wave of discontent and doubt swirling around Republican international and domestic policies could turn into a watershed moment for Democrats in the 2006 and 2008 national elections," writes the Manchester Union Leader. 

Sunday's Union Leader published the results of the UNH Survey Center's new presidential poll, "its first for the state's 2008 primary."  The poll contains a new measure for candidates called the "net popularity" rating, which spells trouble for Kerry and Gov. George Pataki (R). 

Sen. Chris Dodd (D) addresses the Council on Foreign Relations in New York today.

And former Sen. John Edwards (D) is en route to China, where he'll meet with "key senior Chinese government officials and American leaders in Beijing to discuss a wide range of critical questions in the U.S.-China relationship, including North Korea, trade, the genocide in Darfur, and global challenges like the environment, energy security, and weapons proliferation, among other issues," per the release from his office.  MSNBC's Hardball interviews Elizabeth Edwards at 5:00 pm.

From NBC's Mark Murray
A just released Democracy Corps poll (D) of the 49 most competitive Republican-held congressional seats in the nation shows that Democrats are poised to pick up a significant number of these seats. According to the poll (conducted Oct. 10-12 of 1,200 respondents in these districts), the named Democratic candidates have an overall 49%-45% lead over the named Republicans. Among the top-tier of these 49 races (those considered by experts to be the likeliest to turn over), Democrats enjoy a 50%-43% edge; among the second tier, they have a 50%-44% advantage; and among the third tier, they're ahead 48%-46%.

The poll also finds that voter intensity among Democrats is higher than it is among Republicans: 66% of Democrats in these GOP-held districts are very interested in this year's elections, compared with 56% of Republicans who say this. Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, who conducted this survey, said: "These numbers reflect a meltdown in support for the Republicans and suggest a very strong wave in which Democrats would take a majority of these seats." Democrats need to net 15 seats to take back control of the House.

Democratic strategist James Carville, who joined Greenberg on a conference call with reporters, added that the poll shows the wave will certainly equal -- and perhaps even surpass -- the gains Republicans achieved in 1994. "I haven't seen any numbers like this in my career in national politics." Carville even argued that Democrats should borrow money to be able to compete in many more races. "We are not going to have an opportunity like this for a long time come."

From NBC's Joel Seidman, Jim Popkin, and Aram Roston
Ohio Rep. Bob Ney (R) pleaded guilty today to felony bribery and conspiracy charges resulting from the Abramoff lobbying scandal, and he will resign from Congress in the next few weeks. Ney's lawyer has asked for the congressman to be incarcerated in a facility that has an alcohol treatment program. The Justice Department has asked for his sentence to be 27 months. In a statement, Ney said, "I never intended my career in public service to end this way, and I am ashamed that it has. I never acted to enrich myself or get things I shouldn't, but over time, I allowed myself to get too comfortable with the way things have been done in Washington, D.C. for too long."

Meanwhile, a Justice Department spokesman tells NBC News that federal prosecutors in Arizona have opened a preliminary inquiry into a camping trip retiring Arizona Rep. Jim Kolbe (R) took 10 years ago with two teenage congressional pages. The spokesman says the US Attorney in Arizona has started a "preliminary assessment" of the trip, after an unidentified source made allegations about the Congressman's behavior on it. As NBC News first reported, Kolbe took a trip down the Grand Canyon in July 1996 with a group that included two male 17-year-old pages who had recently left the congressional page program. National Park Service employees were also on the three-day trip, along with several Kolbe staffers and the congressman's sister. Kolbe's office denies anything improper happened on the trip.

On November 15, eight days after the midtem elections, disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff is expected to report to federal prison on his own guilty pleas relating to the Florida-based SunCruz casino scandal. Prosecutors and Abramoff's own attorney have jointly asked the federal judge to recommend that Abramoff serve his 70-month sentence at the federal correctional facility in Cumberland, MD, which would allow him to continue to cooperate with federal investigators on the influence-peddling scandal that has taken down one member of Congress so far and caused problems for others. Republican Rep. Bob Ney of Ohio is expected to plead guilty today to accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in trips and other gifts in exchange for taking official action on behalf of Abramoff's clients.

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
With 25 days yet to go before the 2006 midterm elections, a serious contender has dropped out... of the presidential race in 2008.  For anyone who has dared take their eyes off of 2008 for a few months to focus on the midterms, let former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner's announcement yesterday serve as a reminder of just how early this open-seat contest for president has begun.  Warner took months to test the waters as seriously as any candidate, attracted some presidential-caliber personnel, and opted out -- all before the 2006 elections have even take place.  Other contenders on both sides are queued up like planes at the airport to start signaling their intentions to run once the dust settles after November 7.

The first candidate out, Warner may also be the last one to exit the race entirely on his own terms.  Once the midterms are over and the national media zeros in on the 2008 candidates, the pressure will only intensify on those who are faltering to drop out. 

Warner, who told supporters and the media that the effort would require him to spend too much time away from his family, also faced difficulties in distinguishing himself, as a successful red-state Democrat, from other successful red-state Democrats who want to be president, like former governor turned Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana (who, incidentally, was the first candidate to issue a press release praising Warner yesterday).  His departure leaves Bayh and two current governors, Iowa's Tom Vilsack and New Mexico's Bill Richardson, in the Democratic field to try to capitalize on the good karma for governors who run for president.

Speaking of, former President Clinton is about to do a little surrogate work for his wife.  Tomorrow night, he'll keynote the Iowa Democrats' Jefferson-Jackson dinner in Des Moines.  Sen. Hillary Clinton has yet to make a campaign stop in Iowa, where the occasional poll has shown her trailing former Sen. John Edwards.  (Edwards, incidentally, is currently on his 13th trip to Iowa since the 2004 campaign.)  But lest you think Iowa has cornered the market in presidential business for the weekend, Sen. John Kerry keynotes New Hampshire Democrats' Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Manchester tonight.  Kerry's office says he'll focus on the Iraq war, which means he may repeat for the cameras a recent blog posting he wrote that there's nothing he regrets more than his vote for the war.

President Bush himself has his eye on the 2006 ball, as the White House likes to say.  Recalling his party's original game plan for these final weeks before the midterm elections, today he signs a port security bill amid GOP fanfare.  House Republicans, after being too distracted by the Mark Foley scandal to tout the bill-signing last week that authorized a down payment on the border fence, don't plan to let another opportunity pass by.  Bush also has two photo ops with a group of WWII veterans and the Air Force Thunderbirds, a demonstration squadron.

At a fundraiser in Topeka yesterday, Vice President Cheney echoed Bush's comments from the previous day that the most important issues in the election are the economy and security, and sought to draw sharp contrasts between Republicans and Democrats on both.  "If the Democrats take control, American families could face an immense tax increase, and the economy would sustain a major hit."  He also cast Democrats as weak on security for allegedly opposing, en masse, the Patriot Act, the NSA warrantless wiretapping program, and the CIA program for questioning detainees.  As a general shot, he added, "I don't need to tell you what kind of legislation would come to us by way of committee chairmen like Joe Biden, Ted Kennedy, John Conyers, Henry Waxman, Barney Frank, or Jay Rockefeller."

Ethics remain at the forefront, however.  House page board chair and Rep. John Shimkus will testify before the Ethics Committee about what he knew of Foley's inappropriate behavior toward pages.  And Rep. Bob Ney (R) of Ohio, the only member of Congress so far to face criminal charges in the Jack Abramoff scandal, is scheduled to enter formal guilty pleas to accepting hundreds of thousands of dollars in trips and other gifts in exchange for taking official action on behalf of Abramoff's clients, NBC's Joel Seidman points out.  Prosecutors have recommended that Ney be sentenced to 27 months in prison.

Got calendar? 

The AP notes that Bush "defended" Speaker Dennis Hastert during their joint appearance yesterday without mentioning the Foley scandal.  The story also points out that the two GOP House candidates who were the beneficiaries of the fundraiser "spoke differently about the president."  The candidate in the "uphill" race spoke positively about having Bush visit the area, while the candidate in the toss-up race noted how he has been "'very vocal in my separation and criticism of the administration.'" 

The Los Angeles Times calls Bush's words of support for Hastert a "big verbal hug."  "Bush and other Republicans hope to return the focus of the campaign to national security issues.  But the Foley scandal continued to play out" as Foley's former chief of staff appeared before the House Ethics Committee. 

A new Chicago Tribune/WGN poll finds that a majority of Illinois voters disapprove of Bush's job and 60% are unhappy with the GOP-led Congress.  "The survey also shows nearly half of voters disapprove of the way Hastert… has handled the congressional page controversy." 

"Although Democrats' internal polling shows that the Foley scandal is resonating deeply only in half a dozen races, party operatives are calculating that GOP candidates are now unusually vulnerable to personal attacks," says the Washington Post.  "Former Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie said Democrats are dangerously close 'to overreaching' in their attacks, risking a political backlash like the one that damaged Republicans after they pushed for the impeachment of President Bill Clinton...  Democratic operatives said they are aware of this possibility but are calculating that... they will not backfire." 

This won't go over well: As first reported on MSNBC, a former top official in the White House office of faith-based initiatives writes in a new book that Bush aides privately ridiculed evangelicals even as they publicly courted them.  "The assertions... have rattled Republican strategists already struggling to persuade evangelical voters to turn out this fall for the GOP."  MSNBC's "Countdown with Keith Olbermann" tonight airs the second of its two-part series on the book. 

Focusing on North Korea and Iran, the Financial Times observes, "While analysts and diplomats in Washington do not rule out the possibility of US military strikes against Iran - some even wager a better than 50 per cent chance by next summer - there is a sense that the Bush doctrine of pre-emptive or preventive war is buried in the wreckage of Iraq...  Interviews with US officials... reveal that the liberation theology that dominated the post-September 11 2001 discourse... has given way to a more pragmatic approach.  The shift is so pronounced that both neoconservatives and liberal hawks... are alarmed that the Bush administration's apparent embrace of realpolitik will mean abandoning promises made to oppressed peoples while entering into nuclear-reduction deals with the Iranian and North Korean regimes." 

The Wall Street Journal covers the political debate "about which administration bears more responsibility for allowing [North Korea] to acquire such weapons.  Republicans accused the Clinton administration of failing to take tough steps in the 1990s to persuade North Korea to abandon its nuclear-weapons program.  Democrats say Mr. Bush's refusal to engage Pyongyang drove North Korea to accelerate that program, culminating in the announced test this week."

The United Kingdom's new army chief is in the spotlight for his comment that "UK forces should leave Iraq soon because they were making the security problem there worse," which put him at odds with Prime Minister Tony Blair and his government.  "The UK prime minister's office is certain to argue on Friday that Britain will stick to its commitment to maintain a military presence in Iraq until the country's own forces are fully trained," per the Financial Times. 

Bloomberg reported yesterday that the port-security bill Bush will sign in to law today does not "address what security experts and U.S. lawmakers fear the most: terrorists placing a nuclear or 'dirty' bomb in a shipping container and detonating it upon arrival in the U.S....  The Bush administration is caught between competing pressures -- to improve homeland security on one hand, and on the other to avoid imposing standards that would tie up trading routes." 

Bush issued an apolitical statement yesterday marking the sixth anniversary of the attack on the USS Cole.

In his testimony before the House Ethics Committee, former Foley chief of staff Kirk Fordham said he warned the Speaker's office at least three years ago about Foley's behavior, a charge the Speaker's office denies, the New York Times reports.  "Mr. Fordham's testimony rests at the center of what investigators are trying to determine.  The notion that he is, essentially, testifying against the word of Mr. Hastert and his closest aides underscores how the page scandal has upended the midterm election campaign and created unlikely political casualties." 

The AP previews today's testimony by Rep. John Shimkus (R), who oversees the House page program and who says he tried to stop Foley from emailing a Louisiana page in late 2005.  Shimkus "says he kept the two other House members overseeing the pages in the dark as he confronted Foley last fall.  Shimkus… said he was following the wishes of the boy's parents by not telling the other members." 

A company co-owned by Tim Mahoney, the Democratic candidate seeking Foley's seat, is under investigation for fraud after it bought out another company, reports the Miami Herald. 

Democrats on the Senate Finance Committee have produced their own report showing that "Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff used non-profit organizations to launder money, write articles to help his clients, and hide the fact that his clients paid for trips by lawmakers and aides...  Senate Democrats asked the Justice Department, Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service to review the findings...  A spokeswoman for Senate Finance Chairman Charles Grassley, an Iowa Republican, said he would consider the report's recommendations." 

The GOP Senate campaign committee yesterday sought to raise questions for just about every Senate Democrat or Democratic candidate in competitive races this fall about the Wednesday AP report that Minority Leader Harry Reid made a $700,000 profit off a land sale he may not have properly disclosed.  Lawyers told the AP that Reid could be in violation of Senate ethics rules.  Reid's office says they will amend the disclosure however the Senate Ethics Committee sees fit. 

The Washington Post notices how Bush has, in speeches, "repeatedly declared a range of problems 'unacceptable,' including rising health costs, immigrants who live outside the law,  North Korea's claimed nuclear test, genocide in Sudan and Iran's nuclear ambitions.  Bush's decision to lay down blunt new markers about the things he deems intolerable comes at an odd time, a phase of his presidency in which all manner of circumstances are not bending to his will...  Some presidential scholars and psychologists describe the trend as a signpost of Bush's rising frustration with his declining influence." 

Bush today also does another fundraiser for the Republican National Committee in Washington today which is expected to bring in around $900,000.  Vice President Cheney's office said that yesterday's fundraiser for Rep. Jim Ryun (R) in Topeka was Cheney's 113th campaign event of the cycle (dating back to March 2005), with total take of $40 million.  He has done 57 events for House candidates and incumbents, 20 Senate events, four gubernatorial events, and 32 for national and state party committees.

Suddenly security doesn't seem like such a great issue for Republicans anymore?  "President Bush and Republican Senate and House candidates are talking more about taxes in speeches, debates and TV spots after polls showed it is the Republican Party's best issue in a tough midterm election season," per the Washington Times.  "After being off the campaign radar for months, the tax issue is now turning up in races from Virginia to Minnesota, with a little recent help from Democrats." 

Bush's chief economic advisor from 2001-2002, Larry Lindsey, touts the Bush tax cuts in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, saying they've not only had a positive effect on the economy but also on the budget.

The Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire reports, "Only 12 of 35 in WSJ.com survey see optimal economic performance if Republicans keep both houses of Congress for last two years of Bush's term.  Favored outcome of respondents: Democrats win the House but not the Senate." 

 

In his weekly National Journal column, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook observes that a total of 59 Republican-held seats are in play in November (with Democrats on their best day possibly picking up 30-35 of them), and that control of the Senate will likely come down to the races in Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, and New Jersey.  "[W]e need to be aware of the how bad this election could be for Republicans, while also keeping in mind that politics is a volatile business."

The Washington Post front-pages a look at how the Republican House and Senate campaign committees are redirecting resources away from races they're less likely to win toward the incumbents they need to protect, first and foremost, in order to retain their majorities.  "Some top Republicans privately talk about losing a minimum of 12 seats... and as many as 25 or 30 seats. Democratic strategists see the range of potential pickups in almost identical terms." 

USA Today says state ballots around the country this year will feature "the most citizen-sponsored referendums in a non-presidential election in nearly 100 years...  Eighteen states will decide 76 ballot initiatives in November...  That's exceeded only by 87 such measures in 1914 - when initiatives were popular as part of the Progressive movement that fought moneyed special interests...  There were also 87 ballot measures in 1996, which was a presidential election year." 

Bill Clinton campaigns in favor of the pro-environment and pro-alternative fuels Proposition 87 in CALIFORNIA today; former Vice President Al Gore has appeared in ads for the measure.  Yesterday, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Angelides' campaign filed an official complaint with the FCC protesting Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's appearance on The Tonight Show earlier this week and demanding equal time from NBC and its 11 stations in California.  "The FCC has told us that it will move quickly on this complaint, with an answer as early as Monday at 12 noon." 

In the second of four debates, IOWA gubernatorial candidate Chet Culver (D) "worked to associate" Rep. Jim Nussle (R) and his tenure in the House "with President Bush and public dissatisfaction with Washington, D.C."  Culver also "referred to the sex scandal surrounding former U.S. Rep. Mark Foley and associated Nussle with House Speaker Dennis Hastert and former Majority Leader Tom DeLay." 

Kerry campaigns with Senate nominee and Rep. Ben Cardin of MARYLAND on Sunday.  Republican Senate nominee Michael Steele, who trails Cardin in the polls, has taken "one of his most direct swipes at his party in a new commercial yesterday while continuing to fault Democrats."  A new Steele ad takes a shot at No Child Left Behind. 

The New York Times covers Sen. Barack Obama (D) stumping for NEW JERSEY Sen. Bob Menendez (D) yesterday.  "In the surest sign that the tight race between Mr. Menendez and State Senator Thomas H. Kean Jr. had moved into its most crucial period, the stars have begun to come out: in the wake of Mr. Obama's visit, campaign events in the next three weeks promise two Clintons, a Kissinger and a Giuliani."  

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes up yesterday's testy debate between PENNSYLVANIA Sen. Rick Santorum (R) and challenger Bob Casey Jr. (D):  "The two candidates interrupted each other, talked over each other, ignored time limits, ignored the moderator and generally stopped just short of playground name-calling and shin-kicking." 

Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman campaigns in TENNESSEE.  The Washington Times reports on how GOP Senate nominee Bob Corker has "retooled" his campaign in an effort to gain ground against Democrat Harold Ford, with whom Corker is tied, or whom Corker slightly trails, depending on the poll.  Meanwhile, AFL-CIO chief John Sweeney stumps for Ford today in Nashville.

The Hill suggests that one of the Democrats who could feel fallout from Warner's decision not to run for president is VIRGINIA Senate nominee Jim Webb, because Warner's PAC "has helped raise about $400,000 so far for Webb's campaign, and Warner has several more statewide appearances in the works this month to help Webb build further momentum."