From MSNBC.com's Tom Curry
"Who would have thought that Mankato, MN would be the center of the political universe?" asked an amused Bryan Anderson, the campaign spokesman for Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R), who is locked in a tough re-election fight against Democrat Tim Walz.

"Come join Tim Walz in welcoming Senator Kerry to Minnesota's First District!" says the Walz release. The suddenly much more newsworthy Kerry is the guest star at a Walz rally in Mankato at 12 noon Wednesday. Walz, a harsh critic of the Iraq war, has repeatedly invoked his own service in the Army National Guard as a candidate credential.

The Kerry-Walz rally will come just an hour after Sen. John McCain -- fiercely critical of Kerry's comment about poor academic performers ending up in uniform in Iraq --appears in Mankato to whip up support for the GOP ticket headed by Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

Walz campaign spokeswoman Meredith Salsbery said Walz is on the road in the far western part of the district and has not yet commented on the Kerry furor. At this hour, the Kerry event is still scheduled to proceed as planned.

From NBC's Mark Murray
President Bush will be the next Republican to weigh in on Kerry's comments when speaks at a rally for Georgia congressional candidate Mac Collins (R) later this afternoon. The White House just released advance excerpts of Bush's remarks -- which is unusual for this kind of rally, and which seems intended to further stoke this controversy. Per the excerpts, Bush will say: "[Kerry's] suggestion that the men and women of our military are somehow uneducated is insulting and shameful. Our troops did not enlist because they did not study hard in school or do their homework. The men and women who serve in our all-volunteer Armed Forces are plenty smart and are serving because they are patriots – and Senator Kerry owes them an apology."

What do you think?  Should Kerry apologize or is this purely an election ruse?  Join in the discussion on the MSNBC.com discussion board.

From NBC's Mark Murray and Mike Viqueira
At a hastily arranged news conference, John Kerry didn't back down from his earlier remarks that those who don't study hard or do well in school could "get stuck in Iraq" (although, as we mention below, a Kerry source explains that the senator was referring to Bush, not to US armed forces). Replying to Sen. John McCain's demand that Kerry issue an apology, Kerry asked why McCain hasn't demanded apologies from the White House, Vice President Dick Cheney, or Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld for the US struggles in Iraq. "What we need to do is debate the real issues," he said. "America is sick and tired of this kind of politics." 

But that hasn't stopped Republicans from piling on. Speaker Dennis Hastert -- who's experienced his fair share of controversy from the Foley scandal -- condemned Kerry's comments. "Our soldiers make the ultimate sacrifice in order to protect America, and they deserve nothing less than our utmost respect. I urge Senator Kerry to apologize immediately for these insulting remarks." In addition, GOP Senate candidates Mike Bouchard of Michigan and John Spencer of New York have issued statements criticizing Kerry. Interestingly, however, we haven't Republican candidates in more competitive -- or even the GOP campaign committees -- also jump on Kerry.

What do you think?  Should Kerry apologize or is this purely an election ruse?  Join in the discussion on the MSNBC.com discussion board.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Huma Zaidi
White House press secretary Tony Snow and Sen. John Kerry (D) are engaged in a war of words over comments Kerry made at a campaign event in Los Angeles yesterday for California gubernatorial nominee Phil Angelides.  Both might have a little base-politicking in mind, Snow for 2006 and Kerry for 2008.

Kerry, who was speaking to a group of students, warned them that those who don't study hard or do well in school could "get stuck in Iraq."  At today's White House press briefing, Snow said Kerry should apologize to US troops and their families for insinuating that those who serve in the military are not smart.  "What Senator Kerry ought to do first is apologize to the troops," Snow said.  "This is an absolute insult.  And I'm a little astonished that he didn't figure it out already."  Snow was clearly prepped and probably looking to fire up the Republican faithful with attacks on Kerry, one of their favorite punching bags.

Kerry, who has been appealing more and more to the Democratic left as he plots a second run for president, quickly fired back at Snow with an unusually strong-worded press release arguing that President Bush and Vice President Cheney should be the ones to apologize to the troops.  "If anyone thinks a veteran would criticize the more than 140,000 heroes serving in Iraq and not the president who got us stuck there, they're crazy," Kerry said.  "I'm not going to be lectured by a stuffed suit White House mouthpiece standing behind a podium, or doughy Rush Limbaugh, who no doubt today will take a break from belittling Michael J. Fox's Parkinson's disease to start lying about me just as they have lied about Iraq."

A source close to Kerry tells NBC News that he was trying to make a "tough and honest joke" about Bush and that in the process he omitted two words which changed the intended meaning. Per the source, Kerry meant to say that he can't "overstress the importance of a great education" and that "if you don't study, if you aren't smart, if you're intellectually lazy... You end up getting us stuck in a war in Iraq." Kerry mistakenly dropped the "getting us" from his initial remarks.

Sen. John McCain, with 2008 aspirations of his own, is also calling on Kerry to apologize. In a statement released today, McCain said that Kerry's remark is "an insult to every soldier serving in combat, and should deeply offend any American with an ounce of appreciation for what they suffer and risk so that the rest of us can sleep more comfortably at night."

Kerry will hold a press conference to respond to Snow and McCain at 2:00 pm today.

What do you think?  Should Kerry apologize or is this purely an election ruse?  Join in the discussion on the MSNBC.com discussion board.

 

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby.
One week out...  The final pre-election NBC/Wall Street Journal poll will be released tonight on NBC Nightly News and MSNBC.com.  Per the poll, President Bush's job approval rating on the economy is 46%, up from 44% two weeks ago and continuing its upward trend since September -- presumably due to lower gas prices, a booming stock market, and the White House's intense focus on the economy over the past few weeks.  The rest of the poll will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

CNBC dissects that economic job-approval rating and weighs in on what the looming midterm elections could mean for business and the economy with a day-long series of reports today.  Scheduled guests include possible presidential contenders Sen. Barack Obama (D), Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R), and Gov. Mitt Romney (R); House campaign committee chairs Tom Reynolds (R) and Rahm Emanuel (D); Senate Finance Committee chair Charles Grassley; Sens. Mike DeWine (R) and Ted Kennedy (D); and endangered Rep. Steve Chabot (R) of Ohio and his Democratic opponent John Cranley.  Also in the spotlight: what Wall Street firms, investment gurus and big CEOs are saying about the state of the economy and how they expect the election to turn out.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also addresses the Iraq half of the midterm-election equation in an interview with CNBC's Larry Kudlow.  We'll see if she echoes the Bush-Cheney rhetoric from yesterday.  Bush, on the stump, basically said that if Democrats score big gains in the election, the terrorists will win and the nation will lose.  Cheney, on FOX, linked the escalating violence in Iraq to terrorists' efforts to affect the outcome of the elections: "It's my belief that they're very sensitive of the fact that we've got an election scheduled and they can get on the websites like anybody else."  NBC's Lisa Myers reports that there's no intelligence that al Qaeda plans anything for the elections, but intel officials wouldn't be surprised to hear from Osama bin Laden before November 7.

And MSNBC continues its wall-to-wall political coverage today. 

President Bush returns to Georgia today take another whack at helping the GOP uproot two Democratic incumbents there.  He rallies in Perry, GA later this afternoon.  Brother Jeb e-mails Republican supporters this morning: "I can tell you that my brother is absolutely committed to winning this election."  Laura Bush campaigns in North Carolina and at two stops in Tennessee.

Bush isn't the only one out there working ropelines.  Obama's book-selling/Democratic victory tour came to Rochester, MN last night with Obama lending his help to Democratic House candidate Tim Walz and Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar, MSNBC's Tom Curry reports.  In a precursor to a possible 2008 contest, Rochester voters also will see Sen. John McCain (R) tomorrow morning when he campaigns for GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Walz's opponent, Rep. Gil Gutknecht.

Lean and relaxed, Obama gave a motivational speech to an ecstatic crowd of about 3,000, drawing huge applause with his homage to the late Sen. Paul Wellstone.  Even though he said neither party has a monopoly on virtue, he argued that the Democrats are the ones who care about ordinary folks.  It wasn't a policy speech, so he didn't offer a plan for Iraq.  But he got raucous cheers and applause when he said, "The might of our military has to be matched by the finesse of our diplomacy."

The Monday night rally had a 2008 bonus for Obama: parts of it were broadcast live on NBC affiliate KTTC, whose signal reaches several counties in northern Iowa, Curry notes.  After the speech, Obama took to the ropeline.  Fans thrust out copies of Time magazine with Obama's photo on the cover for him to autograph.

A big Obama fan from among the many in the crowd: former Minnesota Gov. Wendell Anderson (age 73) who said that Obama ought to run in 2008 and not wait for some far-off chance.  Youth is his asset.  "I was a very young governor," recalled Anderson.  "If I had been elected governor 15 years later, I would never have tried to do the good things we did, because I would have thought they were impossible."

Got calendar? 

 

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report has updated its ratings, calling 12 GOP-held seats more vulnerable now than they had been, including moving eight seats to the toss-up column.

"In the House, GOP strategists privately concede that a half-dozen to 10 seats are already lost," Roll Call reports.  "But they say the other competitive two- to three-dozen races are close - even closer than publicly available polls suggest in some cases.  Democrats, meanwhile, are working to tamp down expectations for the size of the party's gains in the House, saying that if they do pick up the minimum 15 seats needed..., the final tally could be much smaller than is currently being forecast by most public polling and pundits." 

Republicans are putting out word that per early-voting stats, "their voter-turnout machine is providing an edge in some tight races.  If the trend holds, it could mean that early voting is growing -- and continuing to benefit Republicans...  This year, though, Democrats contend that Republicans are exaggerating their successes so far, by highlighting a few races, while ignoring problems they are having in motivating their troops around the country...  Analysts figured that many of those early voters would be affected by the run of bad news the party suffered in September and early October...  But [RNC] political director Mike DuHaime said that concern is likely exaggerated, because the party is focused on turning out a relatively reliable core of supporters." 

 

The New York Times writes that at yesterday's rally in Texas, Bush was greeted like a man "whose public approval ratings are 73 percent, not 37 percent…  The back-to-back rallies created just the image White House strategists are seeking for the president in the waning days of the campaign: that of a confident leader, surrounded by adoring supporters." 

The Washington Times notices Bush suddenly talking about judicial nominees, border security, and a gay-marriage ban yesterday -- "themes that have been absent for most of the election season, but which he is now using to energize the party's base...  White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said themes were added because Mr. Bush is speaking to different audiences at the rallies and said this stump speech will carry Mr. Bush through Election Day." 

En route back to Washington from Texas last night, a jovial Karl Rove once again passed out candy (chocolate-covered pecans) to the traveling press corps.  "Those who daintily took just one were admonished by the bearer to 'take more, take more,'" per the pool report.  "He made a quick round of the cabin and paused on his way back out to declare, 'Sweets for my sweets.'"

Republican National Committee chair Ken Mehlman campaigns in some of the "killing fields" today for Indiana Rep. Mike Sodrel and Ohio Reps. Steve Chabot and Jean Schmidt.

 

"November marks the five-year anniversary of the end of the last recession and the beginning of the latest U.S. economic expansion," notes USA Today.  "But whether the USA will have another five years of economic growth without sliding into recession - at least matching the record 10-year expansion that ended in 2001 - is an issue that sharply divides economists." 

Gas prices are up slightly this week for the first time since early August. 

Bloomberg points out that almost nowhere do candidates seem to be talking about the looming alternative minimum tax problem, which will "hit more than 20 million households next year, some with incomes as low as $50,000...  Most candidates are avoiding the subject because the cost of stopping the tax increase would obstruct key elements of their agendas...  Those candidates who do mention the minimum tax offer few specifics for fixing it." 

The Financial Times notices that as New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer (D) cruises to the governorship, "[n]ot a single big business group has come out against Mr Spitzer, and some, especially in New York's job-starved northern regions, have endorsed him.  Even the financial services industry, which was the target of the Democratic attorney-general's highest-profile investigations, is largely sitting on its hands." 

USA Today reports that Arab governments "are looking for change in U.S. policy in the Middle East after the midterm elections, hoping a politically weakened President Bush will talk with Iran and Syria, show greater interest in the Palestinians and find a way out of the crisis in Iraq...  Non-democratic but pro-U.S. governments in Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan now largely shrug off the administration's campaign for strong steps toward democracy." 

Before leaving for Georgia today, Bush meets with the special envoy for Sudan.  Sen. Hillary Clinton (D) speaks at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

  

The Washington Times says "a new breed of politician has emerged: former Republicans challenging Republican incumbents."  Among them: Virginia Senate nominee Jim Webb and a handful of now-Democratic House candidates who could very well win. 

Roll Call reports that "House Republican leaders are considering postponing the scheduled Nov. 15 leadership contests" if they lose the majority.  "There is no contingency date set, aides said, but Republican Conference rules do dictate that elections must be held by Dec. 20."  

The New York Times notes how Speaker Dennis Hastert has been sidelined from the campaign trail because of the Foley scandal.  "'Sure, it bothers you,' Mr. Hastert said in an interview in his headquarters.  'But I understand, if I've got 15 television trucks sitting outside my house, and I've got a helicopter looking in the window, you probably don't want to bring that into somebody else's district.'" 

The AP adds that Hastert "is expected by many Republicans to step aside as the GOP's leader if Democrats win big in next week's election.  He might be on his way out even if the GOP emerges with a narrow majority.  The No. 2 House Republican, Majority Leader John Boehner … is looking very much like a candidate to fill Hastert's shoes..." 

 

The Wall Street Journal looks at Democratic efforts to microtarget.  "Democrats are playing catch-up to Republicans, whose use of microtargeting in 2004 energized millions of new voters who backed President Bush...  Until recently, Democrats, who had long relied on the old get-out-the-vote muscle of organized labor, were skeptical of building voter databases."

This Saturday, the AFL-CIO says it will kick off its "Final Four" get-out-the-vote blitz -- in which 100,000 union volunteers will knock on doors, work the phones, and reach out to fellow union members at the worksite during the final four days of the election.

USA Today notes that "a Democratic House would radically alter the balance of power in Washington... because House rules - unlike those in the Senate - give the majority sweeping authority to set the legislative agenda."  Among the changes: "committee chairpersons based on seniority," so the "gavel would go to at least four African-Americans... and three women...  Currently, all of the House GOP committee chairmen are white and male...  It would also increase the age of House chairpersons." 

The co-author of the Almanac of American Politics, in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, says the policy implications of big gains for the out-party in six-year itch elections historically have been mixed.  "If the Democrats are justified in preparing to change the drapes today, the questions to ask are: How enduring will be such a partisan switch?  How much change in public policy will it accomplish?  To the first question, the likelihood of an enduring partisan switch is not high -- if you believe the polls showing the leading Republicans, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain, walloping the best-known Democrats... in 2008.  Changes in public policy?  Well, the lead item on the Democrats' wish list is to raise the minimum wage, a law first passed in 1938.  Not exactly a new idea."

The Washington Times previews subpoenas and investigations under a Democratic House majority.  "Democrats say Republicans have been negligent in overseeing various departments and programs related to the nation's security.  They say investigations would lead to subpoenas and oversight hearings of waste, fraud and abuse within emergency, immigration and transportation safety agencies...  Republican staffers say a Democrat-led Congress would devolve into a constant fight over increasing spending levels for security -- and possibly over the structure of the Republican-created" Department of Homeland Security. 

The Washington Post says anticipated contests for the top two leadership positions under a Speaker Pelosi are "raising fears that Democratic unity could be fraying even before the first votes are cast." 

A Roll Call editorial notes that five states whose polls close by 8:00 pm ET -- Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania -- "have been placed by the nonpartisan group electionline.org on a list of 10 'states to watch.'  In these states, new voting machines, voter identification requirements, out-of-date voter registration lists or sheer numbers of voters may cause trouble."

Top US voting machine manufacturer Smartmatic and subsidiary Sequoia Voting Systems are being investigated by the Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States, at Smartmatic's request, for possibly problematic ties to Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.  "A breakdown in the use of Sequoia voting machines in the March primary in Chicago gave rise to questions about Smartmatic's corporate structure," says the Washington Post. 

"The government has 30 days to issue its first ruling on whether the Sequoia purchase compromises U.S. national security by giving a foreign government undue influence on U.S. elections.  The investigation can be extended by another 45 days, if a U.S. government agency requests it," reports the Miami Herald. 

 

In CALIFORNIA, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and challenger Phil Angelides (D) have both worn their "eco-credentials on their sleeves," per the San Francisco Chronicle.  "Being a green candidate in California is almost a necessity, as polls show overwhelming majorities favor things like banning offshore oil drilling and requiring automakers to build cleaner-burning cars." 

Some post-election reading to look forward to: The Washington Post leads its Style section profile of FLORIDA GOP Senate nominee Katherine Harris with the news that she's "writing a tell-all about the many people who have wronged her.  This includes, but is not necessarily limited to: the Republican leaders who didn't want her to run, the press that has covered her troubled campaign, and the many staffers who have quit her employ, whom she accuses of colluding with her opponent.  She is vague about what, precisely, makes her a victim, but she says she has it all documented." 

Last night's Florida gubernatorial debate was a "three-ring spectacle," including a "maverick third-party candidate and an irreverent, flame-throwing moderator," writes the Miami Herald.  Both Republican Charlie Crist and Democrat Jim Davis "were tripped up more than once -- not by each other" but by moderator Chris Matthews of MSNBC. 

Per a new Chicago Tribune poll, ILLINOIS Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) holds a 44%-29% lead over Judy Baar Topinka (R).  Per another Tribune article, Blagojevich said yesterday "that anyone who suggests [his wife] got private real estate deals with a state contractor because he is governor is 'Neanderthal and sexist.'  The governor's comments were his first on the matter since the Tribune reported First Lady Patricia Blagojevich received more than $113,000 in real estate commissions through a woman who holds a long-standing no-bid state contract and whose banker husband has business pending before state regulators."

In the nationally watched MARYLAND Senate race, a group of prominent African-American county officials have endorsed GOP nominee Michael Steele because, they said, "Democratic leaders repeatedly have snubbed the black community and their county," and because the "Democratic ticket lacks black candidates." 

In NEVADA, where Bush rallies on Thursday, "Clark County, Nev., District Attorney David Roger said authorities have reopened an investigation into a Las Vegas cocktail waitress' claim that" GOP gubernatorial nominee Jim Gibbons "assaulted her in a parking garage after a night of drinking.  Chrissy Mazzeo accused Gibbons, 61, of pushing her against a wall Oct. 13 and propositioning her.  Mazzeo, 32, said she'd been pressured and offered cash from people linked to Gibbons' campaign to drop the complaint.  Gibbons, who is in a close race with Democratic state Sen. Dina Titus, has denied wrongdoing...  A judge set a hearing for today." 

In places like OHIO, Democrats like gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland are incorporating religion into their campaigns.  "Democrats… have stepped up efforts to lure religious voters in states including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Tennessee.  But Mr. Strickland has capitalized more than anyone else on evangelical disaffection from the Republicans, helping to give him a lead of more than 20 percentage points in the race." 

While the Justice Department is looking at whether Rep. Curt Weldon (R) of PENNSYLVANIA helped steer $1 million in consulting contracts from a Russian energy company to a firm headed up by his daughter, the New York Times reports on Weldon's ties to an Italian military giant -- which not only won the rights to build the next Marine One helicopter, but which also employs Weldon's other daughter at one of its subsidiaries. 

The Boston Globe's Canellos dissects the importance of the VIRGINIA Senate race, which could tip the balance of the chamber.  "All this makes Webb a crucial figure to liberal hopes, which is ironic.  A former Republican who still admires Ronald Reagan -- and who features Reagan in his ads -- Webb has the odd distinction of being perhaps the only Democrat attacked from the left by a conservative Republican." 

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
The first wave election of the 24-7 news era is now just eight days away.  Cable and the Internet are flooded with coverage and forecasts, and Democrats hold wide advantages on certain polling measures that have proved predictive in the past.  But there's no surefire way to extrapolate from the polls just how big the wave is going to be.  For once, the Bush White House is setting expectations that can safely be considered their best-case scenario: even narrower GOP majorities in the House and Senate.  At the other end of the spectrum, analysts figure that gerrymandering and a Republican fundraising and GOTV advantages would cap possible Democratic gains in the House at around 35-40 seats.  In the Senate, the floor for Democrats appears to be four seats and the pool of competitive races seems small enough to limit their gains to a maximum of seven. 

The latest Newsweek poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by 53%-39% among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot test.  President Bush's job approval rating is 37% among registered voters.  Late to the stump (his first big rally of the cycle was on Saturday), Bush has a fairly light travel schedule this week, at least as of today.  Campaigning against terrorism and taxes, he will rally support for: two challengers to House Democrats in Georgia; the candidate seeking to win resigned Rep. Tom DeLay's seat; Sen. Conrad Burns of Montana, who has Abramoff issues; and a couple of candidates in Nevada who also have ethical issues.  In one break for Republicans on the scandal front, the House Ethics Committee is not expected to release a report on the Foley probe before election day.

The upshot of the two parties' late-in-the-game fundraising is that Republicans continue to have an advantage, but Democrats are getting a symbolically important infusion of cash from business types who may have to work with a Democratic majority in the House.  The broadening pool of competitive House seats is reflected in 11th-hour advertising efforts by both sides.  Armed Services chair Duncan Hunter's expected announcement today that he'll explore a run for president also suggests he may not think his party will be in the majority come January.  (Eight days before House Republicans are likely to get ousted from power and rejected in bids for higher office might seem like an odd time for one of them to announce he might run for president.)

As of today, the Senate feels borderline up for grabs.  As nonpartisan Cook Political Report analysts figure, it seems more likely today that Democrats will net four or five seats than six or seven, given the chance that Democrats could lose one seat of their own.  If the wave is big enough, of course, it could land Democrats six or even seven seats. 

Because the Senate is so close to the brink and the pool of competitive seats is relatively small, certain late developments will be remembered as hallmarks of the battle for control.  For example, the GOP's sharp attacks on the Democratic candidates for the two Southern seats, Harold Ford of Tennessee and Jim Webb of Virginia, will be remembered as a pair of efforts to push Southern voters' buttons on race and values.  In both states, a backlash against the personal attacks could help blunt the effects. 

Another highlight of these final weeks are the extremely competitive bids of two African-American candidates, Ford and Maryland Republican Michael Steele.  Indeed, National Journal's most recent "insider's poll" rated their campaigns as the best-run Senate campaigns the cycle.  The Cook report just added the Maryland race to their "toss-up" list; Tennessee was already on it. 

Ford's campaign has, by many accounts, been the best-run of the cycle because (to admittedly oversimplify here) he has made many Southern voters forget that he's African-American.  He has spent the year confronting his GOP opponent directly on Iraq and terrorism and de-emphasizing social issues, reinforcing his image as a moderate.  The burden has been on Republicans to remind voters that Ford is black, which is what that controversial RNC ad arguably did.  His party affiliation hasn't been an issue; this is a rare year when it's not a liability to be a Democrat in the South. 

Steele's campaign overall has made its mark with the most consistently original ads seen by political professionals in a long time.  Steele's challenge has been the opposite of Ford's -- he's had to make voters forget his party affiliation, which is what his ads have done.  The burden has been on Democrats to remind voters that Steele is a Republican.  His race has not been an issue; indeed, Maryland Democrats remain nervous that he could siphon a crucial percentage of the black vote.  A Washington Post poll shows Steele trailing his Democratic opponent by 11 points. 

Got calendar? 

One of the more striking things about this election cycle is just how few Democratic seats are in play.  The party stands a decent chance of keeping every one of their House seats.  That said, Bush travels to Georgia today and tomorrow to help his party try to topple two vulnerable Democrats.  Today he's in Statesboro, GA for a rally with former Rep. Max Burns (R), who's challenging incumbent John Barrow (D).  After that, Bush heads to former Rep. Tom DeLay's hometown of Sugar Land, TX to attend a rally for write-in candidate Shelley Sekula Gibbs (R), who's waging an uphill battle for DeLay's seat.  On Tuesday, Bush returns to Georgia for a rally for former Rep. Mac Collins (R), who's taking on Rep. Jim Marshall (D).  Republican Gov. Sonny Perdue and Sens. Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson will attend.

One senior member of the political press corps e-mailed First Read that Bush's shrinking travel schedule reminded him of the closing days of the 1992 presidential campaign.  "I was with Bush the elder and we kept going back to the same handful of places over and over... because they were the only places he could still get a crowd." 

The Des Moines Register says Bush will campaign for Iowa gubernatorial nominee Jim Nussle on Friday.  The President's visit to the state's "most concentrated Republican region shows that the party nationally sees the close race for governor as within reach, but that its best chance to win will be in turning out the base." 

Laura Bush appears at rallies today in Pittsburgh and Manchester, NH.  A Democratic strategist focusing on Pennsylvania e-mails First Read to say that GOP Sen, Rick Santorum is "cratering" in western Pennsylvania, giving the GOP real cause to worry about the political health of local Rep. Melissa Hart (R).

The Sunday Los Angeles Times observed that Karl Rove is "giving a virtuoso performance designed to prevent the Democrats from taking control… or, if that is no longer possible, to hold down the size of the Democratic victory to make it easier for the GOP to come back in 2008.  His plan is three-pronged: to reenergize any conservatives who may be flagging; to make sure the GOP's carefully constructed campaign apparatus is functioning at peak efficiency; and to put the resources of the federal government to use for political gain." 

The Washington Post profiles Rove today, saying he is "just eight days from having his genius designation revoked -- or upgraded to platinum status...  Is Rove just acting cocky as a way of lifting GOP morale, or does he really believe it?  And, if the latter, is he deluding himself, or does he once again know something that Democrats do not?"  The story notes that the Administration's future course in Iraq could be hanging in the balance on whether or not Rove turns out to be right.  He "has headlined more than 100 fundraisers this campaign cycle, raising close to $13 million." 

White House spokesman Tony Snow headlines a fundraiser for Missouri Sen. Jim Talent (R) in St. Louis tonight.  USA Today looks at the e-mails being fired off by the White House communications office's rapid response unit. 

As we wrote above, the GOP's sharp attacks on the Democratic candidates for the Tennessee and Virginia Senate seats will be remembered as a pair of efforts to push Southern voters' buttons on race and values.  First Read asked strategists familiar with the internal polling on both sides what they're seeing to indicate whether or not these attacks have been effective.

"In both cases, voters will have a choice," e-mailed Pete Brodnitz, who polls for both Ford and Virginia nominee Jim Webb.  "Do they vote for the change that they clearly would like to see in the direction of the country, or are they more concerned that the Democrat is a risky choice because of the GOP attacks.  In both states," he asserts, "the GOP has over-reached with personal attacks that may or may not help mobilize the GOP candidate's base at the expense of their ability to reach out to Independents and moderates who are turned off by the GOP attempts at character assassination.  In both cases, the Republican message is also focused on sex and I think a lot of voters are going to be offended... when they are watching television with their children..."

"In the case of Webb I have not been in the field since the new attack hit," Brodnitz says.  "In Ford's case the smears are clearly backfiring on Corker."  Brodnitz says it's "evident in the polls."

But a GOP strategist familiar with the polling in the Tennessee race says of internal polling on his side, "There's been real positive movement on the ballot for Corker since the ad went up, although it's unclear whether that's due directly to the ad or it's also a by-product of the ad and Ford's reaction (he never contested the facts of the ad).  Either way Bob Corker has a lead over Harold Ford that he did not have a week and a half ago."

MSNBC.com's Tom Curry reports from Minnesota, where an open Democratic-held seat that once looked potentially competitive no longer appears that way.  "Four years ago, Republicans had high hopes for Minnesota," Curry writes, after Republicans were elected to a Senate seat and the governorship.  But this year, GOP Senate candidate Mark Kennedy never seemed to catch fire in his race against Democrat Amy Klobuchar.  To some degree, Kennedy blames the news media and its polling.  "The polling by a lot of the media outlets is deliberately designed to discourage the base," he told Curry Saturday.  "A lot of our base would just be energized by seeing the media really trying to steal the election."

With seemingly nothing to lose by being brutally frank, Kennedy has gone on TV with a somber ad that says, "We've made some mistakes in Iraq" but "leaving Iraq now will create a breeding ground for new attacks on America."  As he campaigned in St. Paul over the weekend, Kennedy told Curry, "I'm not tapping into a deep reservoir of a majority of people who want to hear what I am saying, but I have strong and deep convictions driven by the pleading of soldiers in the field to make sure that Americans understand the consequences of losing."

Kennedy and Klobuchar took part in one-hour debate Sunday night but it was mostly sedate, Curry says.  Kennedy was never really able to confront Klobuchar head-on and put her on the defensive.  Klobuchar skillfully stuck to a benign message: the solution to Iraq's turmoil would come by "working with other countries."  She didn't say which countries or what the work would entail.

The White House continues to emphasize that progress is being made toward a transfer of responsibility to Iraqi security forces, despite troublesome comments from Prime Minister Maliki.  The US death toll in Iraq this month has hit 100, "making the month the fourth-deadliest for the US military since the 2003 invasion," per the Financial Times. 

The court trying Saddam Hussein now might delay its verdict by a few days, a move that would shift it past the midterm elections.  "The court had been due to deliver a verdict on Nov. 5." 

The Washington Times runs the first of a five-part series previewing life under a Democrat-run House, focusing generally on expected battles over security issues and increased Democratic oversight. 

Vice President Cheney gives an interview to CNBC's Larry Kudlow today; Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice does Kudlow tomorrow.  CNBC's Patti Domm notes that the markets have been shrugging off the war in Iraq.  (Voters obviously have not.)  This is also a big week for economic data, Domm says.  Consumer confidence, auto sales, and chain store sales will be capped off by the October jobs report due out on Friday.

Bloomberg looks at the GOP's problem as they try to get voters to focus on positive developments in the economy: "Middle-class voters... aren't inclined to celebrate upbeat economic statistics...  The reason, some analysts say, is the gap between a statistically strong five-year expansion and strapped family budgets...  The skeptical mood among such voters has undermined the strategy outlined by" Karl Rove in a May 15 speech in which he "said then that the continued strength of the economy would override the 'sour' national mood created by the Iraq war." 

The Wall Street Journal takes its turn pointing out that despite the GOP rhetoric, a big tax increase via rollbacks of the Bush tax cuts is unlikely with a Democrat-run House, at least in the next two years.  "That isn't to say that Democrats don't want to make changes in tax policy if they win a majority in the House or Senate on Nov. 7, or that their influence won't be felt."  But for "all the tax talk in the 2006 campaign, it is the 2008 election that will have more significant implications for tax policy."   

In his Sunday column, Bob Novak wrote that Speaker Dennis Hastert's friends are urging him "to seek the top Republican post-election leadership position, whether or not the party retains control of the House Nov. 7, so that his long public career does not end marred by the Mark Foley scandal."  Hastert told Sean Hannity yesterday that the GOP will keep its majority and he will run for Speaker again. 

The Sunday Washington Post reported, "Based on polling, Republican strategists say a half-dozen seats, including open seats in Colorado, Arizona and Ohio, appear unwinnable.  Six other races... are looking dire but not hopeless.  Most worrisome, GOP strategists say, is that 20 or more additional Republican incumbents are essentially tied or holding very small leads -- a danger zone for a sitting member of Congress in a tough political environment." 

The term "killing fields," used to refer to likely Republican losses of districts in Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania, is about to become popular. 

"From Virginia up to Connecticut, through the Midwest to New Mexico, polls tell the same story: GOP incumbents in swing states and congressional districts are unusually vulnerable, often stuck around 40 to 45 percent," says the Hartford Courant.  "But they also show that in a large number of races, Democrats have not yet closed the deal." 

Not only are moderate Republicans at risk of losing next week, but so are the "Republican Party's chief swashbucklers," the Boston Globe pointed out yesterday.  The "increasing unpopularity of the Iraq war is making some voters tire of the defiant demeanor showcased by the majority party in recent years, analysts say -- a special problem for those whose political style most resembles President Bush."

Sunday's Globe noted that per GOP officials, "they have a strong record of squeezing out victories in close races."  However, "the fact that the Republicans won so many close races in 2004 also underscores the historic tendency for one party to sweep most of the tight contests in any given year, making a Democratic rout a possibility this year...  Congressional elections in 1980, 1992, 1994, and 2002 also featured a lot of close races, and most of them ended up going the same way -- to Republicans in 1980, 1994, and 2002, and to Democrats in 1992." 

The Los Angeles Times says one test of the Republican leadership's argument that the election will be decided by local issues will be vulnerable GOP Rep. Heather Wilson's Albuquerque-based district, which Republicans have always held.  "No incumbent has ever been defeated" there, "not even in the big Democratic elections of 1974 and 1982." 

The New York Times notes that bedrocks of socially liberal Republicanism -- like suburban Seattle, where Rep. Dave Reichert (R) is facing challenger Darcy Burner (D) -- are fed up with the Republican party. 

The House Ethics Committee has finished interviewing key witnesses in the Foley probe, but no report is expected before the elections -- not even an interim report.  The committee also declined to ask retiring Rep. Jim Kolbe to testify, despite his awareness of Foley's inappropriate behavior toward pages as early as 2000. 

House Majority Leader John Boehner said on ABC yesterday, "'I believe strongly that the speaker - neither the speaker, myself or anyone knew of the sexually explicit instant messages'" sent by Foley to pages.  "'If any one of us would have known about this, we would have dragged him out of there by his tie.'" 

The Saturday Financial Times said Hastert's role in the Foley scandal "has overshadowed… a detailed investigation into Mr Hastert's flourishing personal finances published in the Chicago Tribune, which showed the speaker had booked $2m (Ĩ1.6m, £1.05m) in profits from a land sale in his home state of Illinois…  The sale was in December 2005, three months after [Bush] signed the $286bn highways bill into law.  Mr Hastert had inserted a $207m earmark (a tailored clause) into the bill to fund a public highway in Illinois that runs three miles from his property."  Hastert "has denied any impropriety." 

The Los Angeles Times profiles House Minority Leader -- and possible incoming Speaker -- Nancy Pelosi from the perspective of how this national-level pol fits, and doesn't fit her San Francisco district. 

CONNECTICUT Sen. Joe Lieberman's independent bid is getting a boost from Mayor Mike Bloomberg.  Bloomberg's political organization, which views itself as the last big independent campaign effort, is pitching in.  And Bloomberg is scheduled to endorse Lieberman today.  Democratic nominee Ned Lamont is once again trying to go on the offensive against Lieberman on the Iraq war with a new ad featuring former (and possibly future) presidential candidate Wes Clark.  In the ad, Clark asserts that "Joe Lieberman introduced the resolution authorizing the war in Iraq.  That was a mistake…  Re-elect Joe Lieberman?  Well, there's a word for it: mistake."  

MSNBC's Chris Matthews moderates a FLORIDA gubernatorial debate in Tampa which will air live on MSNBC and on all NBC Florida affiliates.  The Miami Herald writes that this "debate could be a make-it-or-break-it moment for" Democratic nominee Jim Davis, "who is trying to close a dwindling but stubborn gap in the polls."

A new IDAHO Statesman poll shows the governor's race and the race for the state's open House seat are basically tied. 

Michael J. Fox continues to hit the campaign trail for Democrats who support expanded embryonic stem-cell research, rallying today with IOWA gubernatorial candidate Chet Culver (D).

The Washington Post front-pages its coverage of the MARYLAND Senate debate on NBC's Meet the Press yesterday.  Iraq dominated about half the hour, but "the most dramatic exchanges came when host Tim Russert pressed Steele about his opposition to abortion and embryonic stem cell research, and about his long-standing support for President Bush.  Such views don't typically sit well in heavily Democratic Maryland, and they have gone largely unmentioned by Steele during his year on the campaign trail...  This marked the first time in a series of debates that Steele has appeared on the defensive."  The Washington Times looks at questions about race and about the black vote that weren't addressed in the debate.  

Dick DeVos, the Republican candidate for governor of MICHIGAN, has spent $34 million of his own money. 

In NEVADA, where Bush will rally supporters on Thursday, GOP gubernatorial nominee Jim Gibbons, who has been "accused of assaulting a casino cocktail server, said he is willing to take a lie-detector test to prove his innocence." 

In NEW JERSEY, a federal lawsuit that has been revised to include vulnerable Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez.  The New York Times endorses Menendez today.   

In TEXAS, in advance of Bush's visit later today, a new Houston Chronicle poll shows 36% saying they will vote for Lampson, while 35% say they will vote for a write-in candidate -- "a statistical tie in a race many experts are chalking up to Democrats.  That said, casting a ballot for the write-in Sekula-Gibbs won't be easy.  "A write-in candidate has never won a U.S. House race in Texas.  And only six write-in candidates nationwide have been elected to Congress - five in the House and one in the Senate." 

 

From NBC's Gena Fitzgerald

What a week for any viewer watching political ads this week, or netsurfers trying to go to the web to find out what candidates stand for.  National polls keep telling us over and over that it's Iraq that matters most to voters. Apparently the campaigns haven't gotten that message. The focus this week is sex, sleaze, disabilities, and dirt.  What's a voter to do?

Let's see, we started the week with one of the most unforgettable ads in recent years.  Democrat Harold Ford, an African American congressman, is running for Senate in Tennessee against a white Republican named Bob Corker.  The ad was paid for by the RNC.
 
In it, a young blonde actress pretends to have met Ford at a Playboy club and urges Ford to call her. It's clear from her tone that it isn't about the 2007 Budget either.  The NAACP said the ad "plays to pre-existing prejudices about African American men and white women."

Tuesday showed that Rush Limbaugh might be the one person left in America who did not know that actor Michael J. Fox exhibits symptoms of his 15-year battle with Parkinson's disease.  Fox doesn't just support stem cell research; he's also campaigning for Democrats who support it.  He appeared in an ad that Limbaugh chose to not just shoot down the ad…. but to imitate Fox's spasms on his Rush cam and openly question whether Fox had been acting. Rush later apologized. Sort of.
 
The RNC pulled the Ford ad on Wednesday, saying it had run its course. It's replaced by one that refers to Ford taking money from "top X rated porn moguls".
 
In other states, we have ads with:
 - North Carolina Republican Vernon Robinson accusing Democrat Brad Miller of voting to deny body armor for troops, while claiming he voted to fund controversial NIH studies on sex-related studies. (Not true).  The TV ad ends with: "Brad Miller pays for sex, but not for body armor for our troops."
- Pennsylvania Democrat Chris Carney saying Republican Don Sherwood held "happy-hour fundraisers with people who cover up the cyber-molestation of children" and continues to hit Sherwood on family values
- Michigan Senator Debbie Stabenow, a Democrat, accuses her republican opponent of voting in the state legislature to allow the import of trash, yes trash, from Canada.
 
Thursday, Mark Foley's lawyers released information that he's gone in for rehab at an Arizona psychiatric facility.  Liberal bloggers were quick to question whether he was really in rehab or just in hiding.  Some have gone as far to call it "taxpayer supported" since his insurance policy may cover part of it.  Fact check for the uninformed:  just because someone goes into rehab doesn't mean insurance will cover it…regardless of party affiliation.
 
And today, Friday, we're being treated to what's being referred to "pornographic" excerpts from Virginia Democratic candidate James Webb's novels.  Webb is in a tight race in Virginia for Senate against Republican George Allen. You remember him, of course. Just a few weeks ago, Allen immortalized the word "macaca" at a campaign appearance when referring to a young man from the Webb campaign who happened to be videotaping it at the time.  Did Webb's campaign make the most of that? Of course they did, posting tape of Allen on youtube.com
 
So here we are: a little over a week away from Election Day.  Voters tell us it's Iraq that matters most.  There could still time to actually hear the candidates discuss the issues that face voters, instead of making it about dirty laundry.
 
And as you go into the final week or so…perhaps keep in mind something attributed to Adlai Stevenson many years ago: "The hardest thing about any political campaign is how to win without proving that you are unworthy of winning."

From Elizabeth Wilner, Mark Murray, Huma Zaidi, and Jennifer Colby
Eleven days to go...  President Bush today looks past election day, meeting with the NATO Secretary General as prep for the NATO summit in Latvia next month.  Others in the Administration will contend with a GDP figure showing a much lower rate of growth than expected, unwelcome news amid the Administration's big push to focus voters on a strong US economy.  Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson will appear on CNBC later this morning.

The latest sign of how the once formidable Bush-Cheney campaign team's effectiveness has been curbed by their poll standing is how much their itineraries are starting to blur together.  They're also overlapping with the travel schedule of Laura Bush, who remains the White House's universal donor, publicly popular enough to be able to boost even the GOP's most vulnerable candidates. 

They're all even getting the same poor House candidate's name wrong over and over again.  Yesterday, campaigning for Jeff Lamberti (R) in Des Moines, Bush twice called him "Dave."  Our Des Moines affiliate WHO reports that when Cheney was there to raise money for Lamberti a few months ago, he mispronounced Lamberti's last name -- as did Laura Bush when she visited.

Today, Cheney goes to Missouri and then to Kiawah Island, South Carolina for a Republican National Committee fundraiser.  Tomorrow, Bush goes to Indiana and then to Kiawah Island, South Carolina for an RNC fundraiser.  Cheney rallies with US troops in Missouri today; Bush rallies with US troops in South Carolina tomorrow.  Bush also will double back on some of his own travel, doing two campaign rallies in Georgia in two days, on Monday and Tuesday. 

Laura Bush raises money for a House candidate in Florida today, two days after her husband visited.  Vern Buchanan is struggling to win Katherine Harris' open House seat in Florida.  The big national GOP push for Buchanan is understandable given how Democrats would view that victory as particularly sweet prize.  After that event, Mrs. Bush heads from Sarasota to Palm Beach for two events in embattled Rep. Clay Shaw's district, including a fundraiser at a private home. 

On the back-to-back, Bush-Cheney Kiawah events, RNC spokesperson Tracey Schmitt tells First Read, "Just like we did in the final stretch of 2004, it's the RNC's final push and an opportunity to thank those who have been so committed to ensuring we have the resources we need to keep our majorities."  Schmitt also says that in general, "it's fair to characterize this as Republicans in high gear for the home stretch."

And once again, Republicans are hoping to hit a certain nerve for voters in their efforts to hang onto a Senate seat in a Southern state.  First, the RNC ran that controversial ad against Democrat Harold Ford in Tennessee which critics charge was implicitly racist.  Now hitting the Internet are what appear to be excerpts of war novels written by Virginia Senate nominee Jim Webb (D) which feature steamy sex scenes, including between men. 

When asked, a spokesman for the Democratic Senate campaign committee did not deny that the excerpts were written by Webb, who penned the novels based on his years and experience in the military.  Instead, Democrats -- like strategist Paul Begala on Imus this morning -- are countering that some prominent Republicans like Lynne Cheney and Newt Gingrich also wrote pulpy books.  They also cite Sen. John's McCain's praise for one of Webb's novels, as printed on its back cover.  But neither Mrs. Cheney nor Gingrich are on the ballot in Virginia right now after a long campaign in which they emphasized their military credentials, as Webb has.

It's hardly uncommon for candidates in top races to see their opponents make their past writings an issue in the race.  The campaign of Sen. George Allen (R), Webb's opponent, has focused on Webb's previous criticisms of the concept of women in combat, which get front-page Washington Post coverage today.

Got calendar? 

The White House continues to try to shoot down media accounts of disputes between the Administration and Prime Minister Maliki over the way forward in Iraq.  In his own efforts to do so, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld ranted at the media yesterday, saying they "ought to just back off" questions about a timetable for US troop withdrawal from Iraq, reports NBC's Courtney Kube.  Rumsfeld went on to say, "I wouldn't waste a lot of newsprint trying to find daylight between everybody on this or try to find things that are wrong with it." 

Linguist George Lakoff, who has advised Democrats on political language, argues in a New York Times op-ed that Bush's change in rhetoric on the Iraq war -- by abandoning "stay the course" -- won't work.  "To keep staying the course, given obvious reality, is to get deeper into disaster in Iraq, while not staying the course is to abandon one's moral authority as a conservative.  Either way, the president loses." 

The New York Times revisits how divided Democrats are on Iraq.  "Nineteen House members sponsored a bill to cut off funds for the war.  The Democratic Senate candidate in Pennsylvania opposes a deadline for ending American involvement in Iraq.  The Democratic candidate for Senate in Ohio wants all the troops out within two years.  Representative Nancy Pelosi… is calling for immediate steps to begin to remove American forces, with all of them out of Iraq by the end of 2007."  More: "The range of proposals in part reflects the military, political and sectarian maze that Iraq has become…  But the range of proposals also illustrates the state of the Democratic Party, which has not held executive power for six years or controlled the Congress for twice that long."  

McClatchy reported yesterday that Vice President Cheney told a conservative radio host on Tuesday that the Administration doesn't regard water-boarding as torture and allows the CIA to use the technique.  The Financial Times reports today, "A spokeswoman for Mr Cheney denied that he had endorsed or confirmed the use of water-boarding."  The Washington Post runs the excerpt from that radio interview.  

The chair of the House Intelligence Committee has filed paperwork seeking a formal probe of the leak of portions of the National Intelligence Estimate that damaged the Administration's standing on Iraq.  As NBC's Mike Viqueira reported recently, Republican House members are alleging that a Democratic staffer may have been the source of the leak. 

The Washington Post looks at the proliferation of nasty attack ads, including the RNC ad against Democrat Harold Ford in the Tennessee Senate race, which has been pulled but won't quite seem to go away.  "While negative campaigning is a tradition in American politics, this year's version in many races has an eccentric shade, filled with allegations of moral bankruptcy and sexual perversion.  At the same time, the growth of 'independent expenditures' by national parties and other groups has allowed candidates to distance themselves from distasteful attacks on their opponents."  The story notes that "most harsh Democratic attacks have focused on the policies and performance of the GOP majority, trying to link Republicans to Bush, the unpopular war in Iraq and" famous Hill scandals. 

The Wall Street Journal reports on how some candidates are trying to break through the barrage of negative ads with emotional spots (like the Michael J. Fox ads) or quirky ones (like Maryland GOP Senate nominee Michael Steele's).