Thanks to Yellowdog-Mark D for the question!!!

Video edited by NBC's Jordan Frasier.

NEW YORK – With just 37 days to go until the Election Day, Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan admitted in an interview Sunday morning the Mitt Romney campaign has made “missteps.”

“We've had some missteps, but at the end of the day, the choice is really clear and we're giving people a very clear choice,” Ryan said in an interview with Chris Wallace on FOX News Sunday.

Asked what missteps, Ryan immediately mentioned Romney’s “47 percent,” referring to the GOP presidential nominee’s remarks during a private fundraiser regarding the amount of Americans who he said had become dependent on government benefits. Those remarks drew a lot of criticism and influenced Romney’s poll numbers to drop.

“Mitt acknowledges himself that was an inarticulate way of describing how we’re worried that in a stagnant Obama economy more people have become dependent on government because they have no economic opportunity,” Ryan continued. “It was an inarticulate way to describe what we’re trying to do to create prosperity and upward mobility, and reduce dependency by getting people off welfare back to work.”

The seven-term Wisconsin congressman, appearing on a single Sunday show this week, addressed the ongoing unrest in the Middle East, claiming President Barack Obama’s “foreign policy is unraveling.”

Read more on the 2012 campaign at NBC Politics

“I mean, their response was slow, it was confused, it was inconsistent. They first said that it was a YouTube video and a spontaneous mob; we now know that it was a planned terrorist attack,” Ryan said about the attacks on the U.S. consulate in Libya that resulted in four Americans killed. “If this was one tragic incident, that would be a tragedy in and of itself. The problem is, it's part of a bigger picture of the fact that the Obama foreign policy is unraveling literally before our eyes on our TV screens.”

The foreign policy questions for the Chairman of the House Budget Committee did not end there.

Ryan was asked to weigh in on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bomb drawing at the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday with "a clear red line" to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

“What Mitt Romney and I have said is a nuclear weapons capability is what we have to stop,” he said but went further – claiming President Obama is shifting his stance to more like the GOP ticket.

“The president has moved his rhetoric a bit to look more like ours, and that's good, but the problem is it's built upon a mountain of non-credible actions,” Ryan said.

In just 11 days, Ryan will appear on a debate stage in Danville, Ky., with Vice President Joe Biden for the lone VP debate of the cycle. The Romney campaign announced Saturday that Ryan will head to a three-day debate camp next week in Virginia.

In thinking about debating Biden, the Wisconsin congressman said he will just be himself.

“I'm not really a line guy. I'm more of a gut guy,” Ryan claimed. “I don't try to be anybody other than who I am. I believe in what I believe. I do what I do. And I really believe in the policies we're providing, that we're pursuing. And at the end of the day, I'm just going to go in there and be me.”

And Ryan -- who spends Sunday raising money in Connecticut -- noted he does not expect any gaffes from the current vice president.

Biden’s “a very disciplined person when he speaks in these kinds of situations. He doesn't produce gaffes in these moments. Those are when he's off the cuff,” Ryan said.

ON THE CAMPAIGN CHARTER HEADING TO OHIO -- The same day as the first presidential debate of the 2012 election, Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan will begin a three-day debate camp.

Campaign spokesman Brendan Buck told reporters aboard the Ryan press charter Saturday afternoon Rep. Ryan will head to the battleground state of Virginia on Wednesday for an extended debate prep session, commonly referred to as ‘debate camp.’

No reason for selecting Virginia was given, however, advisers in the past have said the camp would likely be in a battleground state, likely in the Eastern time zone, and “somewhere where there aren’t distractions.”

Mitt Romney, who will be debating President Barack Obama in Denver on Wednesday, held his own debate camp in Vermont in early September.

Portman joins Romney for debate prep in Vermont

Ryan’s first formal debate prep day was Sept. 9 in Oregon with his most recent formal debate practice session held this past Sunday in a hotel in Janesville, Wis. Ted Olson, the former solicitor general under President George W. Bush, has been playing the part of Vice President Joe Biden during practice sessions and is expected to be in the Old Dominion state next week as well.

Paul Ryan holes up for debate

Ryan and Biden will debate just once during this election in Danville, Ky., on Oct. 11 – exactly two months after Ryan was tapped as Romney’s running mate, also in Virginia where debate camp will occur.

The campaign told the traveling press a few weeks ago that the seven-term Wisconsin congressman has been going through large white binders -- “organized by issue areas” -- of policy information, research, and news of the day since the Republican National Convention ended at the end of August.

While there has not been much discussion regarding the VP debate in terms of debate expectations -- as most eyes are on the first presidential debate in four days -- two Ryan advisers appeared to downplay expectations for the House Budget Chairman when they spoke to the traveling press in Reno, Nev., in early September.

“Vice President Joe Biden served over 30 years in the United States Senate, he has run for president twice and has severed as vice president for the past four years. He is one of the most experienced debaters in American political life and we definitely don’t take the challenge lightly,” an adviser said.

Ryan focuses heavily on raising money Sunday and Monday -- holding fundraisers throughout Connecticut and New York City – before heading to the key state of Iowa for four campaign events. He will then turn his focus to debate prep leading up to the final weekend before the debate in Kentucky.

ABOARD THE ROMNEY CAMPAIGN PLANE-- Mitt Romney said Friday following a conversation with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu that he was hopeful that the U.S. wouldn't have to use military force to halt Iran's progress toward nuclear weapons.

The Republican presidential nominee told reporters traveling with him that he thought a peaceful resolution in Iran was still within reach, though Romney cautioned that it was important to leave open the option to use military force.

"I do not believe that in the final analysis we will have to use military action," Romney told reporters traveling with him from Philadelphia to Boston. " I certainly hope we don’t have to."

The GOP presidential nominee, who has long advocated the U.S. taking a tougher stand against the Iranian regime, said despite his optimism it would be important in future negotiations with Iran to keep a military option on the table.

"It must be something which is known by the Iranians as a possible tool to be employed to prevent them from becoming nuclear," Romney said of a possible use of military force. "But I certainly hope that we can prevent any military action from having to be taken."

The remarks came roughly one hour after Romney concluded his telephone conversation with the Israeli prime minister, who delivered an address to the United Nations yesterday in which he advocated for the drawing of a bright "red line" with Iran's leadership - offering a clear point of no return which would trigger Western military action and hopefully dissuade the regime from further pursuing its nuclear program.

Netanyahu also spoke by phone with President Barack Obama earlier today, and Romney was asked to draw a distinction between his views on Iran and those of the president. Romney said the administration's policies have moved more to mirror with his own views over time, pointing to newer, more aggressive sanctions placed on the Iranian regime as evidence, and saying he would continue to see how well Obama would match his rhetoric to his actions.

"His words more recently are more consistent with the words that I’ve been speaking for some time," Romney said. "And we’ll see what actions he pursues."

With new polls out every day leading up to the election, NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the importance of paying attention to margin of error and poll trends when examining the data.

Thanks to Steeler Fan_380417 for the question!

TRANSCRIPT:

Mark Murray: It's another Inside the Boiler Room question, this actually comes from Steeler Fan, Domenico. Steeler Fan asks I'm curious about the attacks on the polling by the Republicans. Do you think there is anything to the criticisms of the methodology and the polling results that we're all seeing right now?

Domenico Montanaro: Well look, I just think people need to really remember that polls are about margin of error and trends. Everybody that wants to look at specific numbers within polls, party ID, this turn out model, that or the other, you know, that stuff, everybody, especially the good polls, they do a pretty good job of trying to wait for those things, understand what they are. Let's look at the trend of these things. It always drives me nuts when you see somebody talk about, 'oh my gosh, you know, it's a ten point lead, it must be over in one poll!' That's not the way, that's not an appropriate way to look at polling I mean, you should look at a broad swath of these things you know, so, and it always seems to be that the side that's down makes these complaints.

MM: Well and you can always usually tell in body language too, I mean, you look at all the polls right now pretty much tell us what our gut confirms that Mitt Romney's down right now. We saw that after the conventions, we certainly saw that on the crisis that they've actually had and crisis communication on dealing with that 47%. When you look at everything the Romney campaign has done, this doesn't look like a campaign that's ahead. And kind of going to the polls, Domenico, there's this great example where even in the Florida Senate contest Connie Mack, on the Republican side, his campaign said look, these Quinnipiac New York Times/CBS polls that actually showed us down double digits were wrong. Here's our internal poll, we're down by 6. Well the thing is, well maybe the spread isn't double digits, maybe it's in the high single digits, but it does show you what's actually actually going on right now.

DM: Right, and again that's margin of error. I mean, if something, if something says someone's up by 11 and it's a margin of error of 3, it can be 8 to 14, you know, and if another poll shows it's 6 then you're looking at a broad range of these polls, but you want to look at the trend and the direction that these things go.

MM: And not only the trend and the direction, but the preponderance.

DM: Right.

MM: If they're all, 90% of them are pointing in one direction, chances are that 90% is right and the 10% might be wrong.

DM: Yeah, I think the other thing too like you said about body language and the other things campaigns do, when you see MItt Romney put an ad out where he's talking directly to camera to try to address and mitigate concerns over the 47%- you know look, those are the things that are important too, I think people start to rely too heavily on polling, and shouldn't rely a little bit on anecdotal evidence, reporting in the states, and what kinds of TV ads that these guys are running.

MM: Thanks for the question, Steeler Fan.

WAYNE, Pa. -- Mitt Romney returned to Pennsylvania today for the first time since July, holding a high-dollar fundraiser in Downtown Philadelphia and a rally here at the Valley Forge Military Academy; predicting at both he could mount an improbable victory in this politically divided state.

“You know, I’ve got a little secret here," Romney told a rally crowd of a few hundred supporters. "That is that the Obama campaign thinks Pennsylvania is in their pocket -- they don’t need to worry about it. And you’re right, and they’re wrong.

"We’re going to win Pennsylvania. We are going to take the White House."

At the fundraiser earlier this morning in Philadelphia, Romney was more circumspect about his chances, telling donors it would "really shock people" if, on Nov. 6th, Pennsylvania seemed to be going his way. He first predicted "it could happen" before closing with an outright prediction: "I'm going to win Pennsylvania."

Romney's campaign has not run any television advertisements in the Keystone state, and the candidate himself has not appeared here since mid-summer. No Republican has carried Pennsylvania since George H. W. Bush in 1988.

Polls here regularly show the Republican nominee trailing President Obama by anywhere from eight to 10 points or more, but aides to the former Massachusetts governor mirrored the candidate's optimism. They pointed out that Pennsylvania lacks a robust early voting program, and argued that if Romney can keep the state competitive, he might be able to close the gap here in October.

This comes as polls in other hotly contested battlegrounds have shown Mitt Romney behind.

Romney hammered his economic message here, along with striking patriotic themes about the greatness of America, and promising a smaller government -- all meant to appeal the mostly white, middle- and working-class voters here in the state's suburbs and exurbs that could be open to a Republican message. 

Still, this is a county that has been reliably Democratic in past presidential elections. President Obama won Delaware County 60-39 percent over John McCain. John Kerry, who took Pennsylvania by just 2.5 points, won this county 57-42 percent.

What the county does have, however, is money - with a median household income of $62,000 a year, above the statewide and national averages of about $50,000.

“The president wants to go down the same path he’s been on for the last four years," Romney said. "He wants to keep the status quo. I don’t think we can afford four more years like the last four years. The president calls his campaign slogan ‘Forward.’ I call it ‘Forewarned,’ alright -- we know where it heads, we don’t want to go there," Romney said. He continued: "The president wants to grow government. I think government should be smaller, not bigger. I don’t want it to take more from us."

Today's rally is expected to be Romney's final public event before arriving in Colorado Monday in advance of the first presidential debate Wednesday. 

Producer Will Rabbe of The Chris Matthews Show, a syndicated public-affairs program that runs on Sundays, took a look back at the debates and, for fun, kept track of the color ties presidential candidates wore -- and what patterns may have emerged.

Does it matter whether a candidate wears a red-or-blue necktie in the presidential debates?

Well, since the first televised in color in 1976, there have been a total of 22 Presidential debates, each with two major candidates. Therefore, there have been a total of 44 ties worn in debates over the last 9 elections.

Of those 44, a candidate has chosen to wear a red tie 30 times, a blue tie only seven times and a tie that is both colors or neither a total of seven times as well. (We’ll call this “other”).

Red has been the go-to choice for most candidates by a large margin -- but what’s more interesting is how infrequently a candidate wears a blue tie. (George W. Bush, from a party known for red, wore blue most often).

The “other” category, which includes ties that are both colors, such as blue and red striped in equal ratios, and ties that are neither color, such as grey or brown, are worn 16% of the time. 

There is obviously no correlation between a candidate’s choice of tie and their rate of success (unless you’re willing to delve into the subconscious preferences of the audience), but this begs the question: what color has most often been worn by a winner?

If you count the number of times the individual color has been worn by the eventual winner, divided by how many times the color has been worn in total, the results are counter-intuitive: a candidate who has worn red has won only won 13 of 30 times, giving the tie a mere 43 percent success rate.

Candidates who have worn a blue tie won four out of seven times, a rate of 57 percent, and a candidate who has worn “both/neither” has won the most, in five of seven instances, with a success rate of 71 percent.

The most notable candidates who fall into this “other” category? Reagan in 1980 wore a brown tie; Clinton was partial to striped ties in 1992; and Obama in 2008, who dared to wear a grey tie in the second debate.

Video edited by NBC's Jordan Frasier.

What we’ve learned after nine NBC/WSJ/Marist battleground polls… Campaigns play the debate expectations game… But here’s the only expectation you need to know: Romney needs a game-changer… Examining the early voting that began yesterday in Iowa… Krauthammer to Romney: Go big… Romney stumps in Pennsylvania, while Biden is in Florida… Akin says McCaskill isn’t acting “ladylike”… And “Meet” has Chris Christie.

*** After nine battleground polls: We've now released nine battleground state NBC/WSJ/Marist polls in the last three weeks, and what have we learned? President Obama is ahead of Mitt Romney in all nine, with his biggest leads being 7 and 8 points (in Ohio, New Hampshire, and Iowa) and his smallest edge at 2 points (in Nevada and North Carolina). Obama's average percentage in these polls is 49.5% and Romney's is 44% -- which is consistent with the national polls (see below). Our state surveys also show a slight improvement in voters who believe that the nation is headed in the right direction. And they find Obama and Romney essentially tied on who would better handle the economy, while Obama mostly enjoys double-digit leads on foreign policy.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

*** Placing the states into three buckets: Here’s another way to look at our nine polls -- dividing them into three buckets. The first bucket: The states where Obama’s job-approval rating is at 49% or higher, and those states are Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. The second bucket: The states where Obama leads on the economy, and those are Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio. And the third and final bucket: The states where Romney’s favorability is underwater, and those are Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Wisconsin. There are three states that apply to all three buckets, and you can consider those Romney’s most problematic states right now: Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio. As for where Romney’s in the best shape: North Carolina; it’s the only state where Obama’s job is under 49%, where Romney leads him on the economy, and where Romney’s favorable rating is right side up.

*** The debate expectations game: Both campaigns are now fully engaged in lowering expectations for Wednesday's debate. Yesterday afternoon, we got our hands on a Romney memo by senior adviser Beth Myers, who wrote: “President Obama is a uniquely gifted speaker, and is widely regarded as one of the most talented political communicators in modern history. This will be the eighth one-on-one presidential debate of his political career. For Mitt Romney, it will be his first.” Meanwhile, the Obama camp countered with its own memo by David Axelrod: “[W]e expect Mitt Romney to be a prepared, disciplined and aggressive debater. Gov. Pawlenty said Romney ‘is as good as it gets in debating. He is poised, prepared, smart, strategic.’ We expect that Mitt Romney to show up in Denver. Second, debates—and particularly the first debate—generally favor challengers.” But here’s the truth about Obama and Romney: Neither has been a stellar debater. Obama never shined during the Democratic primary debates of ’08, and candidate Obama had a tendency to ramble (something he improved upon in his general-election debates against John McCain). And while Romney performed well at most of this season’s GOP primary debates, he had some rough performances (the $10,000 bet, the debates in South Carolina). Romney’s one-on-one performances in ’94 and ’02 (for SEN and GOV) were uneven, and his biggest weakness is unspoken body language. The bottom line: Ivy League debate coaches will enjoy Biden v. Ryan a heckuva lot more.

*** Romney needs a game-changer: But here's the only expectation you need to know: Romney needs a game-changer, while Obama needs a split decision. That’s what happens when one person is behind and the other is ahead. And in his weekly National Journal column, Charlie Cook appears to agree. “If the presidential race stays on its current course for another week or 10 days, Romney faces the very real prospect that Republican donors, super PACs, and other parts of the GOP support structure will begin to shift resources away from helping him and toward a last-ditch effort to win a Senate majority—which once seemed very likely—and to protect the party’s House majority.” Essentially, Charlie is warning of political Darwinism kicking in with the rest of the GOP. Bottom line: With less than 40 days until Election Day and with votes already being cast, Romney needs to change the dynamics of this race -- ASAP -- if he is going to win. And his clearest opportunity is at next week's debate in Denver.

*** Examining the early vote in Iowa: Speaking of early voting, NBC’s Jamie Novogrod was reporting yesterday from Iowa, where early voting had begun on Thursday. In downtown Des Moines, voters had already lined up at 9:00 am ET as the Polk County elections office opened, and many of the voters were Obama supporters, and some wore stickers bearing the words “Be the First” -- the slogan for the Obama campaign’s early-vote push. Polk County Elections Commissioner Jamie Fitzgerald told NBC that this was the busiest opening day he had observed during 10 years working in that office. Novogrod also reported that Polk County had 30,615 absentee ballots ready to ship out yesterday -- 20,810 requested by Democrats, 4,024 by Republicans, 5,739 listed as “no party,” and 42 registered as “other.” How well has Obama supporters communicated their preference to get folks to the polls early? Check out these numbers in our Nevada and North Carolina NBC/WSJ/Marist surveys. In Nevada, Obama leads Romney 53%-43% among folks who tell us they will vote early, while Romney leads 57%-39% among Election Day voters. And Obama’s lead is even bigger in North Carolina among early voters (57%-41%).

*** Krauthammer to Romney: go big: Another day, another conservative trying to give advice to Mitt Romney and his campaign. Today’s example: The Washington Post’s Charles Krauthammer. And his advice: Go big. “His unwillingness to go big, to go for the larger argument, is simply astonishing. For six months, he’s been matching Obama small ball for small ball...  When you’re behind, however, safe is fatal.” More Krauthammer: “Make the case. Go large. About a foreign policy in ruins. About an archaic, 20th-century welfare state model that guarantees 21st-century insolvency. And about an alternate vision of an unapologetically assertive America abroad unafraid of fundamental structural change at home. It might just work. And it’s not too late.”

Steve Helber / AP

President Barack Obama gestures during a rally in Virginia Beach, Va., Thursday, Sept. 27, 2012.

*** Poll round-up: Here are the latest polls:

National: Fox: Obama 48%-43%; Gallup: Obama 50%-44%

State: NBC/WSJ polls in New Hampshire: Obama 51%-44%, Nevada: Obama 49%-47%, North Carolina; Obama 48%-46%; Suffolk in Virginia: Obama 46%-44%; Iowa: TIR-Voter/Consumer Research (R): Romney 47%-46%.

Downballot: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Dean Heller leads Shelley Berkley in Nevada 49-43%; NBC/WSJ/Marist: Maggie Hassan leads Ovide LaMontagne 47-45%; NBC/WSJ/Marist: Pat McCrory leads Walter Dalton, 52-39%.

*** On the trail: Romney holds a rally in Wayne, PA at 12:05 pm ET… Joe Biden stumps in Florida… And First Lady Michelle Obama campaigns in Cedar Rapids, IA and Appleton, WI…. Over the weekend, Biden remains in Florida on Saturday, and Paul Ryan campaigns in New Hampshire… And on Sunday, Obama visits Las Vegas. By the way, the Obama camp says that Biden will make this charge on Romney while in Florida: “Biden will explain to voters how Mitt Romney’s tax plan could raise taxes on Social Security benefits by $460 per year to pay for tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires.”

*** Akin says McCaskill not acting “ladylike”: The Kansas City Star: “Comments by Republican Todd Akin once again are stirring controversy, this time with a claim that U.S. Sen. Claire McCaskill was not acting ‘ladylike’ during their recent debate. Akin said Thursday that McCaskill’s demeanor during last week’s debate differed vastly from her 2006 campaign against Jim Talent, which he contends demonstrates she thinks he’s going to win this fall. ‘I think we have a very clear path to victory, and apparently Claire McCaskill thinks we do, too, because she was very aggressive at the debate, which was quite different than it was when she ran against Jim Talent,’ Akin said at a news conference in the state Capitol. ‘She had a confidence and was much more ladylike (in 2006), but in the debate on Friday she came out swinging, and I think that’s because she feels threatened.’”

*** On “Meet” this Sunday: NBC’s David Gregory interviews New Jersey Gov. Christie.

Countdown to 1^st presidential debate: 5 days
Countdown to VP debate: 13 days
Countdown to 2^nd presidential debate: 18 days
Countdown to 3^rd presidential debate: 24 days
Countdown to Election Day: 39 days

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*** Friday’s “The Daily Rundown” line-up: Marist’s Lee Miringoff on the new battleground state numbers… NBC’s Tom Brokaw on the state of the race… NBC’s Mike Isikoff on the voter registration fraud allegations in Florida… Saying so long to the Senate in an exit interview with Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ)… Latest campaign trail news and analysis with Politico’s Maggie Haberman, msnbc’s Melissa Harris-Perry and Republican strategist Mike DuHaime.

*** Friday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews political strategist Mark McKinnon, Rolling Stone’s Tim Dickinson, TheGrio.com’s Perry Bacon, the Washington Examiner’s Susan Ferrechio, Center for American Progress’ Neera Tanden, Republican strategist Robert Traynham, and advertising executive Howard Bragman.

*** Friday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up:  MSNBC’s Alex Witt fills in for Thomas Roberts.  Guests include Former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, NBC News/MSNBC Mideast Diplomacy Analyst Dennis Ross, and “The Cycle Hosts” Krystal Ball, S.E. Cupp, and Toure.  Newt Gingrich’s daughter Jackie Gingrich Cushman, Democratic Strategist Chris Kofinis and the Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart join the Power Panel.

*** Friday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include MSNBC host Chris Hayes, MSNBC host Melissa Harris-Perry, Salon.com Editor-at-Large Joan Walsh, the New York Times’ Nicholas Confessore, BuzzFeed Editor-in-Chief Ben Smith, and Reuters’ Jedd Mason.

*** Friday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow, Tunisian President Moncef Marzouki, Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN), Democratic strategist Bob Shrum and the Washington Post’s Jonathan Capehart.

*** Friday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Steve Deace, David Goodfriend, Michael Smerconish, Zachary Karabell, Steve Kornacki, and Michael Tomasky.

*** Friday’s “MSNBC The Cycle” line-up:  MSNBC’s Toure, Krystal Ball, S.E. Cupp, and Steve Kornacki interview Democratic strategist Jonathan Prince, Marie Claire author Lea Goldman, and Filmmaker of The Other Dream Team Marius Markevicious.

*** Saturday’s and Sunday’s “Weekend with Alex Witt” line-up: As part of her “Office Politics” series, MSNBC’s Alex Witt interviews NBC’s Savannah Guthrie.

Here are the latest polls: National: Fox: Obama 48-43%. State: NBC/WSJ polls in New Hampshire: Obama 51-44%, Nevada: Obama 49-47%, North Carolina: Obama 48-46%; Suffolk in Virginia: Obama 46-44%; Iowa: TIR-Voter/Consumer Research (R): Romney 47-46%; Indiana: Howey/DePauw (conducted by Bellwether/Garin-Hart): Romney 52-40%.

Political Wire: “The most recent Bloomberg poll shows Bush with a 46% to 49% favorable rating as compared to Romney's 43% to 50%.” 

“In what has become a quadrennial ritual, President Obama's and Mitt Romney's aides are doing their best to lower expectations for their bosses' performances at next week's scheduled debate in Denver,” USA Today writes.

Reuters: “President Barack Obama and Republican rival Mitt Romney battled to capture the military vote in Virginia on Thursday as they tried to squeeze out an advantage in one of the most tightly contested swing states ahead of the November 6 election.”

Who are undecideds? “Campaign professionals think of undecideds as comprising two distinct groups: one whose members follow the news and have still found cause to withhold their support, and another that has yet to tune in and may not until the debates,” Bloomberg/Business Week writes, adding, “What they share is a deep sense of frustration. … According to research shared with Bloomberg Businessweek by National Media Research, Planning & Placement, which buys TV ads for campaigns, high-turnout swing voters tend to drive Saabs, drink Caffeine-Free Diet Pepsi and Corona Light, listen to adult contemporary music, and watch Turner Classic Movies and The Office. They also have a special fondness for reality TV. ‘In 2010 the research pointed to reality and talent competition programs and shows such as Dancing with the Stars and Pawn Stars,’ says Will Feltus, the company’s senior vice president. ‘Comedies are also good for reaching swing voters. Big Bang Theory and Two and a Half Men work well.’”

Politico: “It isn’t the chair or the ho-hum convention. Or the leaked video. Or Stuart Stevens. Or the improving economy. Or media bias. Or distorted polls. Or the message. Or Mormonism. It’s Mitt.

“With Republicans everywhere wondering what has happened to the Mitt Romney campaign, people who know the candidate personally and professionally offer a simple explanation: It’s the candidate himself. Slowly and reluctantly, Republicans who love and work for Romney are concluding that for all his gifts as a leader, businessman and role model, he’s just not a good political candidate in this era.”

Hotline’s Reid Wilson: “If Romney does lose this year, blame will quickly shift to the Republican presidential nominee himself, his shortcomings, and his ability to articulate a conservative vision for the country. And the fallout from a Romney loss has the potential to reverberate through the Republican Party for a decade… One can imagine the thought process: Romney, the moderate Massachusetts flip-flopper, was insufficiently clear in articulating the views of the conservative movement and allowed his own shortcomings to distract from the cause, both of beating Obama and of advancing the agenda.”

More: “If Republicans do lurch to the right, history suggests they will be vindicated in the near-term. The mid-term election under a second-term president is typically disastrous for the incumbent party as the six-year itch takes effect. Even if Republicans can't win back the Senate this year, their chances against the Democrats swept in by the Obama wave in 2008 will be strong. By 2016, Republicans searching for a presidential nominee may incorporate two lessons from the previous two election cycles into their decision: 2012 will hint that moderates unable to articulate the most conservative vision can't win nationally, and 2014 will show conservatives can win.”

“His path to victory narrowing, Mitt Romney is looking to Pennsylvania to help slow President Barack Obama’s momentum ahead of a high-stakes meeting on the debate stage next week,” AP writes. “The Republican presidential nominee was to campaign Friday in the Philadelphia area, first courting donors at a high-dollar fundraiser and then meeting voters at a midday rally. Fresh off a promise to spend more time in the swing states that matter most, Romney will pass much of the day in a state that has not supported a Republican presidential candidate in nearly a quarter-century. His campaign is not running any television ads in Pennsylvania, and aides privately concede that Obama has a significant advantage just 40 days before Election Day. They suggest that Romney’s visit — his first to the state in more than two months — is largely designed to raise the money needed to narrow Obama’s edge in more competitive states.”

“President Obama has been forced to cancel several debate practice sessions with Senator John F. Kerry, whom he tapped to play stand-in for Republican challenger Mitt Romney, leaving little time for them to spar ahead of next week’s first presidential debate,” the Boston Globe writes. “The Massachusetts senator has held at least one mock debate with Obama to help him prepare for the first matchup against the former Massachusetts governor to be held Oct. 3 in Denver, but several others were cancelled due to the the president’s busy schedule, said deputy Obama campaign manager Stephanie Cutter.”

Buzzfeed: “Aides to President Barack Obama are sparing nothing — including their boss's balance — in an almost comical attempt to lower expectations for the president in next week's debate with Mitt Romney. On Air Force One today, traveling press secretary Jen Psaki was asked by reporters what the worst thing that could happen to him on Wednesday night. ‘Well, he could fall off the stage,’ she replied of the president.

"‘The president will have some time to prepare and he's been doing some studying, but it is certainly less than we have anticipated because of events in the Middle East, because of his busy travel schedule — because of just the constraints of governing,’ she added. ‘So it is less than we originally planned.’ Psaki lamented the president's ‘loquaciousness’ and argued that Romney is the most prepared debater in presidential debate history — on account of his preparation sessions going back to May.”

Bill Clinton will campaign for Obama in New Hampshire Wednesday, the same day as the first presidential debate.

Obama leads narrowly in North Carolina in a state that should demographically be tougher for him. But AP finds a robust grassroots organization on the ground for the president: “Dozens of volunteers armed with clipboards and voter registration forms gather at President Barack Obama’s field office here every day. Their mission: Fan out across the city seeking new voters in this rapidly growing state,” AP writes, adding, “The effort, it seems, has borne fruit — to the tune of more than 250,000 new registered voters in North Carolina since April 2011, according to Obama’s team. That’s more new voters than the campaign has registered anywhere else in the country. It’s an eye-popping total in a state that Obama won by just 14,000 votes four years ago.”

“Sen. Jim Webb (D-Va.) joined President Barack Obama in Virginia Beach today and issued a stinging attack on Mitt Romney's failure to mention veterans during his presidential nomination acceptance speech, while also noting that Romney did not serve in the military,” Roll Call notes. Webb said, "They will not say this, so I will say it for them. They are owed, if nothing else, at least a mention, some word of thanks and respect, when a presidential candidate who is their generational peer makes a speech accepting his party's nomination to be commander in chief. And they are owed much more than that - a guarantee that we will never betray the commitment that we made to them and to their loved ones."

“Billionaire financier George Soros has given $1 million to the primary super PAC helping President Obama,” USA Today notes. “The funding is a boost to Priorities USA Action in the final weeks of the campaign.”

President Barack Obama leads Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney in New Hampshire, and the two are locked in tight contests in Nevada and North Carolina, according to a new series of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls released Thursday.

Obama is ahead of Romney, 51 percent to 44 percent, among likely voters in New Hampshire. He also edges Romney in Nevada and North Carolina, but within the margin of error.

In Nevada, Obama gets the support of 49 percent of likely voters and Romney gets 47 percent. In North Carolina, it’s Obama at 48 percent and Romney at 46 percent. (Among registered voters in all three states, Obama’s lead expands to 8 points in New Hampshire, 4 points in North Carolina, and a wider 7 points in Nevada.) 

Poll results: New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina (PDFs)

“New Hampshire seems to be following the similar trends we’re seeing elsewhere,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, of the race in the Granite State, where Romney owns a home, and which borders Massachusetts, where the GOP nominee served a term as governor. 

Over the past three weeks, NBC and Marist have released polls of nine battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin – and all show Obama with leads, ranging from 2 to 8 points. 

Mark Wilson / Getty Images

President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign rally at the Farm Bureau Live arena, on September 27, 2012 in Virginia Beach, Virginia.

The results come after a difficult one-month stretch for the Republican challenger – there was the Republican National Convention, his response to the outbreak of violence in Egypt and Libya, the revelation of a secretly-recorded videotape showing him dismissing 47 percent of the country as “victims, ” and the release of his 2011 tax returns showing he paid a 14.1 percent effective rate in 2011. 

“What Romney needs is to have a broader shift thorough the electorate,” Miringoff said, “because the pattern state by state, with some variation, is that Obama has gotten to 50, or in the high 40s. So, there’s a gap in these states that has emerged … Romney has to change the numbers in most, if not all, of these states.” 

Obama’s leads in each of the states are fueled by voters’ improved feelings about the direction of the country, Obama’s handling of the economy, and Romney’s continued struggles with likability. 

There also continues to be a gender gap, with Obama leading with women by 20 points in New Hampshire, 16 points in North Carolina, and 11 points in Nevada. 

Obama is also close to his levels with white voters from 2008 in each of these states. And though there is a drop in the likelihood that young voters will turn out with the same force they had in 2008, Obama makes up for it with continued robust support from minority voters. 

Approval, favorability, direction of the country
The president’s approval rating in New Hampshire is at 50 percent, up from 47 percent in June. In North Carolina and Nevada, it’s 47 percent – unchanged in North Carolina and up a point in Nevada. 

Obama is viewed more favorably in all three states than Romney. In New Hampshire, a state where Romney’s a known commodity and campaigned heavily during the Republican primary, 52 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him. 

In Nevada, Romney is seen negatively by almost a majority of respondents (48 percent), while 45 percent of the state’s voters viewed him favorably. 

Romney’s favorability rating was net-positive only in North Carolina, though opinion on the former Massachusetts governor was nearly split. Romney’s favorable score was 46 percent; 45 percent viewed him negatively. 

“It speaks to the campaign strategy, which is playing with limited success of trying to raise his likability,” Miringoff said, citing the convention, Romney’s comments that health care reflects why he is empathetic, as well as his campaign ad speaking directly to camera in which he notes that he, like the president, cares about the poor and middle class.

“They’re trying to address that likability factor,” Miringoff continued, adding, “But with Obama in high 40s, 50s [in approval], that suggests that you have to be more than just the ‘other guy,’ and he really hasn’t been able to do that.”

In all three states, voters’ views of the direction of the country had improved, nowhere more than New Hampshire. The gap between wrong track and right direction back in June was 20 points. Now, it’s just 7 points. 

In North Carolina, there was a 4-point improvement, and just 2 points in Nevada. Nevada is still suffering from the highest unemployment in the country at 12.1 percent and its home foreclosure rate is one of the highest in the nation. 

In New Hampshire, voters also shifted on their views of who would be better to handle the economy. In June, Romney was favored by 4 points.  Now, that’s reversed. In Nevada and North Carolina, voters continue to be split on the question of which candidate would better manage the economy. 

Obama retains an advantage on foreign policy in all three states.

Whites, youth, minority voters
In all three states, Obama’s support among white voters and young voters is down from his 2008 bid for the presidency, though the impact might be washed out by persistent support for Obama among minority communities. 

Obama gets the support of 51 percent of white voters in New Hampshire, a state that is overwhelmingly white, and where Obama won 54 percent of the white vote in 2008. 

White support for Obama is also down slightly in North Carolina, Obama got 35 percent of whites four years ago; now he’s at 33 percent. 

And in Nevada, Obama is just 4 points off from the 45 percent share of the white vote he won in 2008. 

“He’s getting close to the share of what he got” among whites in 2008, Miringoff said. 

But posing a problem for Obama is that young voters’ enthusiasm has fallen off – and are less likely to turn out the way they did in 2008. 

“That huge turnout among young people last time isn’t there right now,” Miringoff said. 

But the president makes up for it with continued robust support from minority voters. Obama leads 95 percent to 3 percent among black voters in North Carolina, a state where African Americans comprised 23 percent of all voters in 2008. 

In Nevada, where Latinos made up 15 percent of the electorate (but 27 percent of the population), Obama has a 62 percent to 36 percent advantage over Romney. That’s narrower than the 76 percent to 22 percent margin Obama won in 2008, but he won the state by 12 points last time, a significant cushion. 

Additionally, there has been growth among Hispanics particularly in the Southwest, and they could make up a larger percentage of the vote in 2012. For example, in 2010, a year that favored Republicans, Hispanic voters made up 16 percent of the electorate, a larger share than in 2008. 

Obama’s challenge in the state will be with independents and getting out the vote in Clark County, which is anchored by Las Vegas. He won independents in 2008 by 13 points. Now, Romney leads by 12 percent. Among registered voters in Clark County, Obama had a 7-point advantage. But among likely voters, that dropped to just 2 points. 

In 2008, Obama won the state’s most populous county – which cast almost two-thirds of all votes – by almost 20 points. Democrat John Kerry, who narrowly lost the state to George W. Bush in 2004, won it by 5. 

Romney also leads among independents in North Carolina by 9 points, but that is a far smaller than the 21-point margin by which John McCain won that group. 

The NBC News/Marist/Wall Street Journal polls were conducted Sept. 23-25 and have a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent for the sample of likely voters in each state.

Billionaire George Soros has committed $1 million to the primary Super PAC supporting President Barack Obama, NBC News confirms.

Two sources familiar with the decision say that Soros will write the seven-figure check to Priorities USA Action, the pro-Obama organization formally endorsed by the president's campaign aides as a clearinghouse for top Obama donors.

Soros, a Hungarian-American investor famed for his hefty contributions to Democratic and philanthropic causes, is listed by Forbes as the 15th richest man in America with a net worth of about $19 billion. In June, he gave $1 million to Democratic research organization American Bridge.

Although it posted relatively meager numbers in the months after its creation, Priorities USA Action has since become competitive with pro-Romney organization Restore Our Future. It reeled in a record $10 million last month and has raised a total of more than $35 million.

Updated:  8:46p.m. ET:  Election officials in six Florida counties are investigating what appears to be "hundreds” of cases of suspected voter fraud by a GOP consulting firm that has been paid nearly $3 million by the Republican National Committee to register Republican voters in five key battleground states, state officials tell NBC. 

But the veteran GOP consultant, Nathan Sproul, who runs the firm, strongly defended his company's conduct, saying it has rigorous "quality controls" and blamed the alleged fraud on the actions of a few "bad apples," workers who were hired to register Republican voters for $12 an hour and then tried to "cheat the system." 

The allegations of suspected voter fraud committed by Strategic Allied Consulting of Tempe, Arizona spread Thursday to counties throughout Florida. At the same time, the Republican National Committee said it had severed its ties to the firm altogether.

"We have heard from supervisors in six counties that they have irregularities in voter registration," said Chris Cate, spokesman for the Florida Department of State, which oversees the state's division of elections.  Although local prosecutors are already investigating the firm's conduct, Cate said state officials were also considering turning the matter over to the Florida Department of Law Enforcement to determine if there was a pattern of misconduct.  

The suspected fraud included apparent cases of dead people being registered as Republican voters, said Paul Lux, the supervisor of elections in Okaloosa County and a Republican. He compared the suspected fraud to the alleged acts of ACORN, the liberal activist group that became the center of a national controversy several years ago.

"It's kind of ironic that the dead people they accused Acorn of registering are now being done by the RPOF" [Republican Party of Florida], Lux said in an interview with NBC News.

In addition to Palm Beach County, where election officials initially reported 106 instances of suspected fraudulent registration forms, officials in Okaloosa, Pasco, Santa Rosa, Lee and Clay counties have also reported instances of possible fraudulent forms submitted by the firm, officials said.

In a statement on Strategic Allied's website, the firm's lawyer said:

"Strategic has a zero tolerance policy for breaking the law. Accordingly, once we learned of the irregularities in Palm Beach County, we were able to trace all questionable cards to one individual and immediately terminated our working relationship with the individual in question. Strategic is committed to following the letter of the law and will continue to cooperate with the Palm Beach County Supervisor of Elections to ensure that this issue is resolved."

Sproul said in a telephone interview that his company has employed between 4,000 and 5,000 people to register Republican voters under its contract with the RNC, including over 2,000 in Florida. The employees are given training on how to register voters, including being required to watch a video instructing them not to register felons. The video also instructs recruiters not to "modify or falsify voter registration forms."

"No matter what quality controls you have there are always going to be bad actors in any large scale operation," Sproul said.

Sproul, who has long worked for the GOP, also criticized Florida and national Republican officials for dumping him.

"They're trying to get the distraction behind them," he said about the RNC's action. 

Sean Spicer, communications director for the RNC, said Strategic Allied Consulting had been retained by the RNC and state Republican parties to register new Republican voters in five key battleground states.

But Spicer said that the party's relationship with the firm-- which has been paid $2.9 million by the RNC so far this year, according to federal elections records -- has now been terminated in light of alleged voter fraud linked to one of the firm's employees that was reported this week to Florida prosecutors by election officials in Palm Beach County. 

"We've made it clear we're not doing business with these guys anymore," said Spicer.  "We've come out pretty strong against this kind of stuff -- and we have zero tolerance for this."

Strategic Allied’s parent firm, Lincoln Strategy Group, also headed by Sproul, has been paid about $80,000 by the Romney campaign to conduct "field consulting," according to election records. Asked for comment, Sarah Pompei, a spokeswoman for the Romney campaign, said by email:  "We used this vendor for signature gathering services during the primary but have not used them since 2011."

Besides Florida, Strategic Allied Consulting was hired to register GOP voters in Nevada, North Carolina, Colorado and Virginia. Spicer said it was the only firm hired by the RNC to conduct voter registration. In the case of Nevada, he said, the RNC was paying the firm directly. In the other four states, the firm was being paid by state parties with the funds reimbursed by the RNC. 

The allegations involving voter fraud by the GOP consulting firm are a new twist in the national controversy over the threat posed by voter fraud and the impact of new state laws passed by Republican controlled legislatures to combat it. While Republican officials have repeatedly accused Democratic groups such as ACORN of fraudulently registering voters in the past, the new dispute over what happened in Palm Beach--  involving the registration of Republican voters -- appears to be one of the first to have led to a criminal inquiry in this year's election.

Christine Weiss, a spokeswoman for the Palm Beach State Attorney's Office, told NBC News Thursday that the alleged voter fraud by a Strategic Allied Consulting employee is "currently being investigated" by prosecutors in her office after it was brought to the attention of prosecutors on Monday by Palm Beach election supervisor Susan Bucher.

Out of 304 Republican voter registration forms recently dropped off by a Strategic Allied employee at a small "satellite office" of the Palm Beach  elections office, 106 were flagged as potentially fraudulent-- including "a lot" with "similar looking" signatures and others with apparently phony addresses, Susan Bucher, the Palm Beach elections supervisor, said in an interview.

Among the suspect home addresses were those that matched a gas station in Miami, a medical building in Boca Raton and a Land Rover automotive dealership in Palm Beach County, she told NBC News.

Bucher said she called in the political director for the Palm Beach Republican Party and the GOP official agreed that the registration forms were a problem. She then took the forms to the Palm Beach County State's Attorney's office on Monday and requested the investigation.

In a statement issued Tuesday night, Mike Grissom, executive director of the Florida Republican Party, said: "When we learned today about the instances of potential voter registration fraud that occurred in Palm Beach County, we immediately informed the Republican National Committee that we were terminating the contract with the voter registration vendor we hired at their request because there is no place for voter registration fraud in Florida."

Sproul has been previously accused of suppressing Democratic voter turnout, throwing away registration forms, and manipulating ballot initiatives. His firms -- formerly Sproul & Associates, Lincoln Strategy, and Strategic Allied Consultants -- had previously worked for RNC voter registration efforts during the campaigns of George W. Bush and John McCain. In 2004, Democratic Senators Leahy and Kennedy sent a letter to then Attorney General John Ashcroft requesting that he "launch an immediate investigation into the activities of Mr. Sproul and his firm." But the request did not lead to any criminal charges against Sproul.