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  • Romney won almost a majority of his vote margin in five counties

    By NBC's Domenico Montanaro

    *** UPDATE *** AT 7:19 am ET, percentage has increased.

    Mitt Romney won 49% of his entire vote margin from just five counties -- the Southeastern and traditionally Democratic counties of Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, as well as the swing counties of Pinellas and Hillsborough.

    Of those five counties, Romney won about 118,000 votes of his about 241,000 vote margin.

    Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach alone accounted for about 31% of his total margin -- with about 74,000 votes.

    Vote margin for Romney - 240,548
    Miami-Dade 38,017
    Broward 13,783
    Palm Beach 22,078

    Sub-total: 73,878 (31%)

    Pinellas 26,271
    Hillsborough 17,554

    Grand Total: 117,703 (49%)

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  • Some warning signs for Romney, despite his impressive FL victory

     

    By NBC's Mark Murray

     

    Mitt Romney is well on his way to a decisive victory in the Florida primary, according to the early returns and exit polls.

    And like in New Hampshire -- and unlike in South Carolina -- Romney is winning across the board among most voting groups.

    But there are still some warning signs for him among conservative voters in Florida.

    Among “very conservative voters” –- 33% of the electorate (compared with 36% in South Carolina) –- Newt Gingrich wins those folks, 43%-29%. Romney, however, wins “somewhat conservative” voters, 51%-32%.

    Among evangelical voters -- who make up four in 10 voters (versus nearly two in three in South Carolina) -- Gingrich wins, 39%-36%.

    What’s more, 38% say they’re not satisfied with the GOP field and want someone else to run, and Romney and Gingrich essentially split those folks.

    Finally, 41% believe that Romney isn’t conservative enough, and Gingrich beats him among those folks, 58%-11%.

    Bottom line: Romney's projected victory is his most impressive to date (taking place outside New Hampshire, where he owns a home and was governor of neighboring Massachusetts). But he still hasn't closed the deal with the most conservative of GOP primary voters.

  • Romney rebounds with victory in Florida GOP primary

    /

    Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney and his wife Ann address a primary election night event in Tampa, Florida, January 31, 2012 after trouncing main rival Newt Gingrich in Florida's Republican primary.

    By Michael O'Brien, msnbc.com

     

    Updated 9:38 p.m. ET

    Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney staked his claim to the distinction of being the frontrunner for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination with a win Tuesday in Florida’s Republican primary.

    Romney easily won the contest, which was limited to only registered Republican voters, followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, the winner of the Jan. 21 South Carolina GOP primary, in a distant second. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum finished third, and Texas Rep. Ron Paul came in fourth.

    Romney, in remarks shortly after polls closed, turned his attention back to President Obama and sought to project Republican unity. Gingrich, meanwhile, defiantly vowed to carry on in his presidential bid, all the way through August's Republican convention.

    Romney’s victory reflects a rebound in his fortunes over the past 10 days, during which Gingrich had initially seemed to be charging into Florida with momentum after the Palmetto State victory. The ex-speaker seemed to emerge as a primary threat to Romney’s shot at the nomination, mostly by stoking doubts among conservatives about the former Massachusetts governor’s ideological core.

    But Gingrich ran into a barrage of advertising in Florida sponsored by both the Romney campaign and a super PAC working on Romney’s behalf, which questioned the baggage Gingrich had accumulated as speaker, and pointed to the work Gingrich had done as speaker on behalf of troubled mortgage giant Freddie Mac after leaving office.

    Mitt Romney addresses supporters after winning the Florida Republican primary, insisting that the heated primary prepares the eventual candidate, and attacking President Obama on the economy and healthcare.

    Romney made a veiled reference to the hard-fought Florida battle in his remarks, in which he sought to posture himself as the GOP's standard-bearer.

    "A competitive primary does not divide us, it prepares us. And we will win," Romney said, adding later: "I stand ready to lead this party and to lead our nation."

    The Romney campaign and the super PAC, Restore Our Future, outspent the Gingrich campaign and a super PAC supporting the former speaker by a 4-to-1 ratio in Florida, a testament to the effectiveness of negative advertising, especially in a large, expensive state that prizes TV ads.

    The contest had essentially become a two-man showdown in Florida, since Santorum and Paul – the two other remaining GOP candidates – scarcely competed in Florida, and barely spent any resources in the state.

    Gingrich, in his remarks following Florida's results, said the race would be a two-person race going forward as well.

    "It is now clear that this will be a two-person race between the conservative leader, Newt Gingrich, and the Massachusetts moderate," the former speaker said of the results in Florida. "We are going to contest every place, and we are going to win, and we are going to be in Tampa as the nominee in August."

    Romney's victory over Gingrich, though, was mostly complete, spreading over most parts of the state, and he beat Gingrich among every age, race, gender and income group, according to exit poll data. Romney did particularly well with women, who made up almost half of the primary electorate, and Latinos – who, in Florida, were mostly Cuban voters.

    Romney also performed well with voters who rated the economy as their top issue, and voters who named the ability to beat President Obama as the most important quality in a candidate. Both are core strengths of Romney’s candidacy, and Gingrich edged Romney in both categories in South Carolina.

    But while the former Massachusetts governor beat Gingrich among self-described conservatives as a whole, the exit poll data suggested that Romney still faces challenges in winning over the most conservative elements of the GOP.

    Gingrich beat Romney among “very conservative” voters in the primary, who made up about a third of the electorate. Strong supporters of the Tea Party – who composed roughly 35 percent of voters – also broke for Gingrich.

    Newt Gingrich thanks his supporters in Florida, calling for help in defeating Mitt Romney's big money campaign, and outlines his plans for his first day in office as President of the United States.

    And while Republican primary voters Tuesday in Florida expressed positive opinions of Romney as a person, about four in 10 voters said his positions on issues are insufficiently conservative. Thirty-eight percent of primary voters said they wished another Republican candidate would enter the race, underscoring the lingering reluctance of Republicans – especially conservatives – to coalesce behind Romney.

    But for as much as Romney took strides to tamp down Gingrich during the last 10 days in Florida, he turned his attention back to the president in much of his victory speech.

    "Together, we will build an America where 'hope' is a new job with a paycheck, not a faded word on an old bumper sticker," he said.

    Still, the primary battle is set to go forward, though Tuesday's contest caps a relatively busy month for the Republican candidates, which saw Santorum eke out a victory in Iowa's Jan. 3 caucuses, and Romney decisively win New Hampshire's Jan. 10 primary.

    The campaign is now set to enter a new phase, with a relatively dead period for candidates in the next month.

    Nevada and Maine host caucuses on Saturday; Romney won in the former (which has a sizable Mormon population) in 2008. Colorado and Minnesota each hold caucuses on Feb. 7, too. Because caucuses typically favor candidates with money and organization, Romney and Ron Paul, who's focused intently on those contests, are expected to perform best.

    Those are the only nominating contests until late February, when Arizona and Michigan host its primaries. The Wolverine State is expected to strongly favor Romney -- it is where he was raised and where his father served as governor.

    The structure of the calendar means that Romney could work to secure a stranglehold on the race for the nomination or, if nothing else, dismiss competitors like Gingrich with the kind of relentless advertising that took its toll on the former speaker in the last week.

    Gingrich has defiantly vowed to take his candidacy all the way to the Republican convention, signifying the prospect of a prolonged battle for delegates. The former speaker might have his best chance to pick up some of those delegates on March 6 -- the "Super Tuesday" of the 2012 cycle, when a number of southern and more conservative-leaning states, which tend to favor Gingrich, hold their nominating contests.

    Santorum commented on the results in Nevada after a town hall, arguing that the Florida results show that he -- and not Gingrich -- was the candidate best positioned to challenge Romney.

    "We need another alternative, we need someone who doesn't have the baggage, and the personal issues as well as the inconsistencies in policies that Newt has to be the clear alternative Mitt Romney," he said.

    The former Pennsylvania senator also took aim at Romney, promising to deliver a speech on Wednesday on "Romneycare and Obamacare."

    NBC's Andrew Rafferty contributed reporting.

    Rick Santorum speaks before supporters in Nevada after placing third in Florida's primary, and stresses the need for the Republican candidates to elevate the tone of their campaigns and argue the issues instead of attacking each other's character.

  • Is this Kosher? Gingrich accuses Romney of forcing Holocaust survivors to eat non-Kosher

    By NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Alex Moe

     

    Newt Gingrich has upped his attack on rival Mitt Romney, running robo calls in Florida now accusing rival him of forcing Holocaust survivors to eat non-Kosher food.

    Gingrich spokesman R.C. Hammond confirms that the robo call is paid for by the campaign.

    "As governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney vetoed a bill paying for Kosher foods for our seniors in nursing home -- Holocaust survivors, who for the first time were forced to eat non-kosher because Romney thought $5 was too much to pay for our grandparents to eat kosher," a man says in the robo call. "Where is Mitt Romney's compassion for our seniors? Tuesday, you can end Mitt Romney's hypocrisy on religious freedom with a vote for Newt Gingrich. Paid for by Newt 2012."

    Asked about it today, Gingrich repeated three times, "I have no idea what you’re talking about." Yet Gingrich was quick to pounce on Romney during the last debate, when Romney professed not to know about a Spanish-language ad his campaign was running hitting Gingrich for implying Spanish was the "language of the ghetto."

    Huffington Post first reported the ad.

    The New York Post reported: “Mitt Romney is getting heat for a 2003 veto he cast as governor of Massachusetts to reject $600,000 in additional funds for poor Jewish nursing-home residents to get kosher meals. At the time, Romney said he nixed the funding of about $5 per day because it ‘unnecessarily’ would lead to an ‘increased rate for nursing facilities’ — even as kosher nursing homes were complaining that state-funding-formula changes could force them to close their kitchens.”

     

  • Romney defends negative tone of Florida campaign

    Joe Raedle / Getty Images

    Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks with the media after a visit to his campaign headquarters on January 31, 2012 in Tampa, Florida. Romney has a double-digit lead going into the Florida primary today.

    By NBC's Garrett Haake

     

    TAMPA, FL -- Mitt Romney on Tuesday defended the increasingly negative tenor of the GOP primary campaign, telling reporters that he would not "stand back" as other candidates attacked him.

    "It would be wonderful if campaigns were all nothing but positive, but that's certainly not the reality," Romney said at a press availability outside his headquarters here. "President Obama will have a billion dollars or so to attack me. He's already begun. The AFL-CIO I understand spent about a million dollars in Florida attacking me. So there are going to be attacks, and the right thing to do will be to respond to them aggressively, clear up those things that have been said that are incorrect, and point out the weaknesses-- the differences between yourself and those that you're running against."

     

    Romney also defended his own negative attack ads and rhetoric targeting former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with the political equivalent of the playground "he started it."

    "You know, in South Carolina, we were vastly outspent with negative ads attacking me and we stood back and spoke about President Obama and suffered the consequence of that and also some good debates by speaker Gingrich. We came to Florida and Speaker Gingrich didn’t have two good debates. I did. and we responded to the attacks that were coming to us," Romney said.

    That would seem to be a bizarre claim at first glance, given the Romney campaign's status as the richest of all the candidates. The campaign has spent millions throughout the campaign, as has Restore OUr Future, a pro-Romney super PAC. NBC News and ad-tracking firm Smart Media Group Delta, which tracks ad spending by political candidates, reported that Romney and Restore our Future outspent Gingrich and his Super PAC by more than $2 million dollars in South Carolina.

    The Romney campaign explained the governor meant they were outspent versus all the other candidates' combined spending.

    "I’ll tell you if you’re attacked I’m not going to just sit back I’m going to fight back and fight back hard. I did note that in the Suffolk University poll they asked the people in Florida who has run the most negative campaign in Florida and they said Newt Gingrich," Romney said, referencing a poll which showed 37% of Floridians felt Gingrich ran the most negative campaign, compared to Romney's 31 percent. "He really can’t whine about negative campaigning when he launched a very negative campaign in South Carolina and when the people here in Florida looked at the different campaigns and concluded his was the most negative."

    Romney certainly has fought back -- over the airwaves, on the stump and with his surrogates.

    Romney's campaign and Restore our Future outspent Gingrich and his allied Super PAC Winning our Future on advertising by nearly a 4-1 margin here, with team Romney spending $15.9 million to team Gingrich's $4 million. Romney also spent the better part of the last two days opening every campaign event by attacking Gingrich, and several of his congressional endorsers have shadowed the former speaker's campaign events, where they've occasionally clashed with Gingrich staffers in what Romney advisers refer to as a "truth squad" operation.

    With a spate of recent polls showing Romney expected to coast to victory here tonight, he conceded today he will soon need to pivot his focus back to President Obama, but also left no doubt he'd be keeping up the pressure on Gingrich going forward.

    "I would like to spend more of our time focusing on President Obama. That's ultimately what's going to be essential to taking back the White House," Romney said. "But I'm not going to stand back and allow another candidate to define me. [Gingrich's] comments most recently attacking me have been really quite sad and I think painfully revealing about the speaker and what he's willing to say and do to try to take the nomination. So I just can't stand back and let him say those things about me without responding."

  • Why Florida is winner-take-all and why it might not be eventually

    By NBC's Domenico Montanaro and John Bailey

     

    Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele has said on MSNBC on various occasions that Florida's GOP primary is not winner-take-all.

    That's not the case. Florida is winner-take-all. But it is true that Florida might potentially wind up being proportional. But a lot has to happen for that to be the case.

    Here's why there is some confusion -- this is all based on the current RNC's interpretation of the rules (more on that below).

    The only way how delegates are allocated changes is if an aggrieved Florida resident challenges the interpretation and the RNC's contest committee rules in that party's favor.

    So, (1) Right now it's winner take all, (2) It's potentially possible that at some point the way the delegates will be allocated is overturned.

    But again: (1) That's not the CURRENT rule, and (2) If there was a change, it wouldn't happen until the August convention.

    "The Florida state party submitted a plan to the RNC that included Winner Take All delegate allocation," an RNC official told First Read "They lost 50 percent of their delegates because they submitted a WTA plan before the stated April 1st rule date. The only way for Florida's delegate allocation to change from winner take all at this point is for a resident of Florida to bring a contest to the RNC meeting in Tampa this summer and the contest committee will review it. Just because a contest is brought to the committee doesn't mean the committee will rule in their favor."

    To better understand this, let's get into the details:

    Florida violated two clauses within one rule (Rule 15b).

    1. Going too early (before March 6), and
    2. Submitting a plan for a winner-take-all contest even though no state that goes before April 1 should be winner-take-all.

    The reason Florida was allowed to continue to have a winner-take-all contest is, because, according to the RNC's interpretation of the enforcement rule (16a), Florida only violated one rule (two clauses within the same rule, but still one rule). 16a talks about what happens if a state violates 15b, not two portions of 15b, according to their interpretation.

    "It's a technicality, but, technically, it's one rule they broke -- not two separate ones," another RNC official said.

    Again, it's POSSIBLE that the contest committee takes up a challenge, and it's possible that they would then revert to making Florida's allocation proportional. But it is incorrect to say that "currently" the rule IS proportional. It is winner take all.

    RULE NO. 15
    Election, Selection, Allocation, or Binding of
    Delegates and Alternate Delegates

    (b) Timing.* (Revised language was adopted
    by the Republican National Committee on August 6,
    2010)

    (1) No primary, caucus, or
    convention to elect, select, allocate, or bind delegates to
    the national convention shall occur prior to the first
    Tuesday in March in the year in which a national
    convention is held. Except Iowa, New Hampshire,
    South Carolina, and Nevada may begin their processes
    at any time on or after February 1 in the year in which a
    national convention is held and shall not be subject to
    the provisions of paragraph (b)(2) of this rule.

    (2) Any presidential primary,
    caucus, convention, or other meeting held for the
    purpose of selecting delegates to the national
    convention which occurs prior to the first day of April
    in the year in which the national convention is held,
    shall provide for the allocation of delegates on a
    proportional basis.

    RULE NO. 16
    Enforcement of Rules
    (a) If any state or state Republican Party
    violates The Rules of the Republican Party relating to
    the timing of the election or selection process with the
    result that any delegate from that state to the national
    convention is bound by statute or rule to vote for a
    presidential nominee selected or determined before the
    first day of the month in which that state is authorized
    by Rule No. 15(b) to vote for a presidential candidate
    and/or elect, select, allocate, or bind delegates or
    alternate delegates to the national convention, the
    number of delegates to the national convention from
    that state shall be reduced by fifty percent (50%), and
    the corresponding alternate delegates also shall be
    reduced by the same percentage. Any sum presenting a
    fraction shall be increased to the next whole number.
    No delegation shall be reduced to less than two (2)
    delegates and a corresponding number of alternates.

  • Crist might back Obama, run as Dem

    By MSNBC's Brooke Brower

     

    In a rare television interview, former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist -- who left the Republican Party during his unsuccessful 2010 U.S. Senate bid -- told Chuck Todd on MSNBC's "Daily Rundown" that he'd consider voting for President Obama in November.

    “Consider? Sure, I would consider that,” said Crist. “I really think he’s sincere and genuine. I think we have a lot time, a lot of issues to talk about, but I think, in his heart, he’s trying to do what’s right for the country overall.”

    Now a registered independent, Crist said he also wouldn't rule out running for office as a Democrat himself in the future.

    “I wouldn’t definitively rule out anything,” the former governor said.

    In recent days, Newt Gingrich has invoked Crist's name to criticize Mitt Romney, noting that a number of former Crist staffers and supporters are now backing Romney's presidential bid.

    Asked if Gingrich’s attack was good Republican primary politics, Crist said, “I really don’t know.”

    Since leaving office as governor in 2011, Crist has worked in the private sector as an attorney with the law firm Morgan & Morgan, even appearing in a television ad for the firm.

  • Huntsman dad propped up Super PAC, gave almost $2 million

    By NBC's Jo Ling Kent

     

    Jon Huntsman's father Jon M. Huntsman Sr. gave Our Destiny PAC, the Super PAC supporting his son's candidacy, a total of about $1.9 million of $2.7 million contributed to the PAC since October, according to a new FEC report.

    That accounts for 70 percent of all the money the Super PAC received.

    Jon M. Huntsman contributed $1,887,039.90 of the entire $2,680,289.90 that the PAC received. His final donation came 13 days before the New Hampshire primary, ahead of the last minute ad buys made on New Hampshire's WMUR.

  • Gingrich: Race will go to 'June or July - unless Romney drops out earlier'

    By NBC’s Alex Moe

     

    ORLANDO, Fla -- Newt Gingrich remains confident his campaign will continue for months ahead no matter what happens in the Florida primary today.

    “I’m not going to lose big here,” Gingrich told reporters about the election today. He added this campaign has a long road ahead: “I would say probably six months -- probably June or July -- unless Mitt Romney drops out earlier.”

    Romney has taken what appears to be a commanding lead in the Sunshine State, according to polls, but the former House Speaker still believes he has a shot here.

    “The early vote will all look very good for Romney, because it’s the absentees, where he spent millions of dollars before we got here,” Gingrich told reporters outside a polling location at First Baptist Church of Windermere. “We have had huge number of phone calls, tremendous amount of volunteers, and I want to see what happens tonight.”

    Many wonder how Gingrich can continue if he loses in Florida -- a state heavily coveted by the Republicans in the general election. Fundraising will be key if the former Speaker hopes to take his campaign through to the convention. The campaign announced today on Twitter that it raised about $10 million in the final quarter of 2011 and has already raised $5 million in the month of January.

    Gingrich has one message for anyone who doubts him after having written him off back in June and July and after Iowa as being “dead.”

    “They are about as accurate as they have been the last two times they were wrong,” Gingrich said.

    Not including the primary night party, Gingrich has four planned campaign stops Tuesday including two visits to polling sites. The Romney campaign added its only campaign event of the day to their schedule early Tuesday morning.

    Gingrich will be here in Orlando as the results come in as polls begin to close while Romney will be just an hour West in Tampa -- the site of the Republican convention this year.

  • Iowa GOP chair announces his resignation

    By NBC's Alex Moe

     

    After weeks of controversy following the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, Matt Strawn, the chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, today said he will step down from his role with the party at the end of next week.
     
    Strawn, who has served as the GOP chairman in the first-in-the-nation caucus state since 2009, announced his resignation in a statement. “It is only because the Iowa GOP has returned as a strong and relevant voice in Iowa politics that I am now able to evaluate all the competing priorities in my personal, business and political life."

    He added, "The party is strong and has the resources in place for victory in November. Now is the time to transition to new leadership."
     
    Strawn's resignation is effective Friday, Feb. 10.

    Mitt Romney was declared the winner of the caucus by a mere eight votes during the wee hours of the morning on caucus night. After the certified results came in nearly two weeks later, Rick Santorum pulled ahead of Romney by 34 votes.

    The Iowa GOP was also never able to account for all 1,774 precincts –- 8 precinct votes could not be tabulated because the Form Es were not collected.
     
    On Jan. 19, the Iowa GOP sent out a press release congratulating both Santorum and Romney on their performance in Iowa, but did not declare a winner despite Santorum being ahead by 34 votes.
     
    The Santorum campaign and supporters were unhappy with the lack of official word declaring their candidate the winner.
     
    Later that day, however, Strawn went on an Iowa radio station and began to change his tone on the subject -- and leaned towards saying Santorum was the winner.
     
    This switch brought additional criticisms of the chairman as well –- and confusion nationally as to who was the true winner in Iowa.
     
    The Iowa GOP was forced to send a press release on Jan. 20 stating: "In order to clarify conflicting reports and to affirm the results released Jan. 18 by the Republican Party of Iowa, Chairman Matthew Strawn and the State Central Committee declared Senator Rick Santorum the winner of the 2012 Iowa Caucus."
     
    But many in Iowa are sad to see Strawn step down.
     
    "For three years, Matt's focus on fundraising and voter registration was unparalleled. Because of him, the Iowa GOP is better prepared to go in to the 2012 elections,” State Central Committee member Tim Moran told NBC News. "I wish him well as he prepares for the next stage of his life"
     
    The Governor of Iowa also thanked the Chairman for his dedication to the state.
     
    “I want to thank Matt Strawn for his three years of leadership at the Republican Party of Iowa. Matt took over at a time when the party was in desperate shape, and rebuilt it precinct-by-precinct, putting it in the strongest position in years,” Gov. Terry Branstad said in a written statement. “Matt’s leadership will be missed, but I am confident a smooth transition will take place at the Republican Party of Iowa and we will continue our party’s successes this November.”
     
    The State Central Committee will be tasked with electing Strawn’s replacement. The next quarterly meeting is scheduled for Feb. 11.

  • First Thoughts: Beginning of the end?

    Joe Raedle / Getty Images

    Ray Roy sets up a polling station as they prepare for voters on primary day on Jan. 31, 2012 in Tampa, Florida.


    Will tonight’s Florida primary mark the beginning of the end of the GOP nominating season?... Or just the end of the beginning?... Polls close at 7:00 pm local, but because some Florida counties are in CST, networks won’t call the race until 8:00 pm ET at the earliest… Will February be the cruelest month for Gingrich?... And will it allow for Romney to do something BIG?... Romney’s balancing act… His negatives spike with indies… An ideological split over unemployment benefits… And OR-1 and FEC filing day.

    By NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Carrie Dann, and Brooke Brower

    *** The beginning of the end? With Mitt Romney’s expected victory at tonight’s Florida primary, The New York Times asks a very good question: Will it mark the beginning of the end of the GOP nominating season, or will it merely signal the end of the beginning? On the one hand, Romney winning Florida would give him a victory in the largest, most diverse, and electorally important state so far. It would demonstrate his ability to bounce back from a major setback (the Jan. 21 South Carolina primary), as well as his organizational and financial strength. And, as our recent NBC/Marist poll suggests, a Romney win in Florida would represent his most impressive showing with conservative GOP voters outside of New England. As we’ve written before, Romney wouldn’t ever be a shoo-in for the Republican nomination until he won a GOP contest with support from the conservative/Tea Party base of the party. Florida might give him that kind of victory tonight.

    *** Or is it just the end of the beginning? On the other hand, you could argue that the Republican nominating contest is far from being over. For starters, Newt Gingrich has vowed to “go all the way to the convention.” After all, Hell hath no fury like a presidential candidate who believes he’s been scorned. Ron Paul’s campaign will continue, too. Remember, even after John Kerry won all the early contests in ’04, Howard Dean didn’t end his campaign until after Super Tuesday and after Wisconsin. What’s more, there’s a LONG way to go mathematically. After tonight’s contest, just 115 delegates (or projected delegates) will have been awarded, but it officially will take 1,144 delegates out of a total of 2,286 to clinch the nomination. So we’re just 5% of the way through, and don’t be surprised if you hear that stat from Gingrich today. Finally, every time we think this race (or Newt Gingrich, for that matter) is over, we find out we’re wrong. And why are we wrong? Because it's clear the activist conservative base (read: tea party) just isn't satisified with Romney and they aren't going to roll over this fast. What has been clear is that this Republican nominating contest -- even if we’re just 5% of the way finished -- has taken a toll on Romney, especially among independents (more on that below).

    With a comfortable lead in the Florida polls, Mitt Romney is displaying confidence ahead of today's Republican presidential primary. NBC's Peter Alexander reports.

    *** The skinny on tonight’s primary: Polls close tonight in Florida at 7:00 pm local. Yet because some of the state’s counties are in the Central Time Zone, that means the earliest the networks can call the race is at 8:00 pm ET. At stake are 50 delegates (Florida lost half of total when it was penalized for moving up to Jan. 31), and it’s winner take all.

    *** Will February be the cruelest month for Gingrich? As we’ve said before, February promises to be a cruel month for Gingrich and a pretty good one for Romney. Per NBC’s John Bailey, the next contests are Nevada and Maine (Feb. 4); Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri (Feb. 7); and Arizona and Michigan (Feb. 28). After all, Romney won Nevada -- which has a large Mormon population -- four years ago, and he also won in his home state of Michigan. In addition, the caucus format in Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota will benefit strong, organized campaigns like Romney’s and Paul’s. Note: Missouri’s primary on Feb. 7 is non-binding; its results have no bearing on allocating the state’s delegates. Lucky for Gingrich, that's the case since he's NOT on that beauty contest ballot.

    *** Will February allow for Romney to do something big? So we all know that February is going to be a cruel month for Gingrich. But what does Romney do in the meantime to improve some of his shortcomings? It almost seems as if Romney needs to do something BIG, something that adds to his narrative – which, right now, is that he’s a really rich guy who understands how the economy works (though Dems would add "how the economy works for HIM). What is the lesson we learned from Herman Cain? He took off (albeit temporarily) because he was selling something big (his 9-9-9 flat tax plan). By the way, when was the last time Romney talked about his 59-point economic plan?

    *** Romney’s balance-beam act: Right now, Newt Gingrich has an interesting assortment of allies. Fred Thompson. Herman Cain. Michael Reagan. What do these folks have in common? They are conservative talk-radio heroes. (And you could even add Sarah Palin, who wants the GOP nominating contest to continue, to this group.) This presents a challenge for Romney: Yes, the lesson he and his campaign learned from South Carolina is that they have to continue to pummel Gingrich, and the Romney campaign today is holding a conference call with Nevada allies to hammer Newt in that state. But at the same time, Team Romney can’t entirely alienate Gingrich and his conservative supporters. So how does he walk that fine line? He eventually needs these folks in the tent.

    Slideshow: Mitt Romney's life in politics

    Jonathan Ernst / Getty Images

    From governor's son to presidential contender, a look at the life of Republican Mitt Romney.

    Launch slideshow

     

    *** Romney’s negatives spike with independents: It’s also clear that this whole race -- at least so far -- hasn’t helped Romney’s image among the very people needs to win over if he’s the GOP nominee: independents. According to our recent NBC/WSJ poll, Romney’s negatives with independents jumped 13 points in the past month -- which saw eight nationally televised debates since our last poll, as well as now four bitter GOP contests -- and 20 points since November. In November’s poll, he stood at 21%/22% with indies; by December, it was 21%/29%; and last week, he was 22%/42%. (Full write up here.) That should be a major red flag for the Romney campaign. One thing’s clear: Romney might have emerged as a better debater from the bruising primary process, but it has taken a toll on his image with the middle. And there’s probably no one who wants this fight over with sooner that Romney.

    *** Ideological split over unemployment benefits: At first glance at two policy questions in the NBC/WSJ poll, there appears to be broad support for extending the payroll tax cut until the end of the year (55% good idea, 17% bad idea) and continuing to provide unemployment benefits for those out of work up to 99 weeks (52%/33%). But when you dig into the numbers, very different pictures emerge. For the payroll tax cut, support is broad and non-ideological. But for unemployment benefits, it’s the opposite -- a real partisan divide emerges. Among Democrats, it’s 69%/18%, independents 57%/26%. But with Republicans, the idea is wildly unpopular -- 29%/55%. It also breaks down along racial lines, with whites being much less likely to think it’s a good idea (47%/38%) versus African Americans (78%/11%) and Hispanics (56%/25%). Interestingly, among those who think the economy will get better over the next 12 months, 65% say it’s a good idea. But among those who say the economy will get worse, just 35% say so.

    *** On the trail: Before tonight’s polls close in Florida, Gingrich makes a handful of stops in the Sunshine State… Santorum holds his primary-night watch party in Nevada -- not Florida… And Ron Paul stumps in Colorado.

    Slideshow: Newt Gingrich

    Duricka / AP

    Historian, author, member of Congress and speaker of the House — a look back at his public life.

    Launch slideshow

    *** OR-1 and FEC filing day: Also, don’t forget that today’s the special congressional election to fill David Wu’s vacant seat in Oregon. Politico: “Democrat Suzanne Bonamici holds a comfortable lead over Republican Rob Cornilles in public polling heading into the last day of balloting in the vote-by-mail special election to replace disgraced former Democratic Rep. David Wu. Republicans glumly acknowledge there’s little reason to expect the kind of upset the GOP scored last fall.” The DCCC spent A LOT of money on this race; some might argue TOO much. But as they will argue, a loss of this special would have been DEVASTATING to their national narrative of keeping the House in play. So overpaying to avoid that storyline was worth it to them. And it’s FEC filing day, and we’ll also be able to see the contributions to the Super PACs.Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 4 days

    Countdown to Super Tuesday: 35 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 280 days

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  • Programming notes

    *** Tuesday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: Former Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (I) on how Gingrich is using his name to attack Romney, today’s vote, and the road to November… Politico’s Jonathan Martin and The New York Times’ Jeff Zeleny continue their streak of TDR primary day previews live from Tampa… Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA) on how Democrats are handling Republican efforts to woo Hispanic voters… More 2012 analysis with Politico’s Maggie Haberman, NY1’s Errol Louis and Republican strategist Mike DuHaime.

    *** Tuesday’s “Jansing & Co.” line-up: MSNBC’s Chris Jansing interviews former RNC Chairman Michael Steele, HD Net’s Dan Rather, liberal writer Joe Conason, Mother Jones’ David Corn, and Rick Tyler of the pro-Gingrich Super PAC Winning Our Future.

    *** Tuesday’s “MSNBC Live with Thomas Roberts” line-up: MSNBC’s Thomas Roberts interviews Rep. Connie Mack IV (R-FL-Romney supporter), Florida Lt. Governor Jennifer Carroll, Jeff Zeleny, Erin McPike, Brad Woodhouse, and former Rep. Tom Davis. 

    *** Tuesday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include Herman Cain, New York Magazine’s John Heilemann, Salon’s Steve Kornacki, TheGrio.com’s Joy-Ann Reid, Politico’s Ben White, Wes Moore, and NBC’s Chuck Todd.

    *** Tuesday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up: NBC’s Andrea Mitchell interviews Small Business Administrator Karen Mills, Gingrich supporter Jose Mallea, Romney adviser Eric Fehrnstrom, Stephanie Cutter from the Obama campaign, USA Today’s Susan Page, and Bill Burton and Mark McKinnon.

    *** Tuesday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall” line-up: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz, FL St. Rep, and Miami-Dade Republican Party Chair Erik Fresen, GOP strategist Rick Wilson, Romney FL campaign strat Albert Martinez, Conservative radio talk show host Steve Deace, and Michael Smerconish.

  • 2012: Decision Day in Florida

    A Quinnipiac poll out yesterday gives Romney a 14-point edge in Florida, 43%-29%.

    Campaign promises from Gingrich and Romney offer a portrait of their political styles, writes the Post.

    The Tampa Bay Times lists five key counties to watch tonight: Pinellas, Seminole, Miami-Dade, Duval, and Escambia.

    NBC’s John Bailey highlights some others: An interesting indicator will be Romney's strongest counties from the 2008 cycle. In 2008, Romney's stronghold was the Jacksonville area. Three of his five strongest counties were in and around Jacksonville -- in St. Johns County, Duval County, and Clay County, Romney won by more than 10 percentage points. Romney's largest margin of victory was in Collier County, home to Naples. He did not do well, however, in the counties in and around Tampa, which account for two of the three counties with the most GOP voters in Florida. But in 2008, Romney was running as a conservative alternative to John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Last cycle, Romney won 44 percent of voters who described themselves as "Very conservative" -- 24 percentage points more than even Mike Huckabee. This cycle, Romney occupies a more moderate territory in the GOP field. So while he may not repeat victories in conservative counties, but he may make inroads in the voter-rich areas near Tampa.

    GINGRICH: The Miami Herald analyzes the impact early voting could have on the Gingrich-Romney margin today – and it’s not good news for the former Speaker. “At least 632,000 Republicans have already cast ballots,” the Herald writes. That would be about a third of the total number of people who went out to vote in the GOP primary in 2008. The means, the Herald writes, Gingrich could be down as much as 60,000 to 75,000 votes before the polls even open.

    The Atlanta Journal Constitution’s Galloway writes, “Newt Gingrich [yesterday] tossed the kitchen sink — no doubt properly cleaned and blessed — at Mitt Romney down in Florida. Gingrich said of Romney, ““He eliminated serving kosher food for elderly Jewish residents under Medicare. I did not know this, it just came out yesterday. The more we dig in, I understand why George Soros in Europe yesterday said it makes no difference if it’s Romney or Obama, we can live with either one.”

    The line of attack originated with a New York Post article, which reported: “Mitt Romney is getting heat for a 2003 veto he cast as governor of Massachusetts to reject $600,000 in additional funds for poor Jewish nursing-home residents to get kosher meals. At the time, Romney said he nixed the funding of about $5 per day because it ‘unnecessarily’ would lead to an ‘increased rate for nursing facilities’ — even as kosher nursing homes were complaining that state-funding-formula changes could force them to close their kitchens.”

    The Boston Globe writes: “Gingrich kept up the criticism of Mitt Romney as he barnstormed Florida today, accusing Romney of running roughshod over the religious convictions of Catholic hospital administrators and denying Jewish seniors kosher meals when he was governor. … In a state heavy with Jewish retirees, the former House speaker, who is slipping behind in the polls, was trying to score some points among a key part of the electorate.”

    On the Catholic hospitals charge, the Globe writes, “Gingrich did not explain the Catholic hospital reference. But it could be about a decision Romney made in 2005 that said all hospitals in the state were required to provide the Plan B birth control pill under Medicaid. At the time, Romney said the decision was made based on legal advice from a state attorney, according to Globe coverage of the issue.”

    PAUL: Snoop Dogg endorsed Ron Paul. Other celebrity endorsers: Kelly Clarkson, Joe Rogan and Vince Vaughn. Snoop posted a picture of Ron Paul with "smoke weed everyday" on his Facebook page, which also included this message: "because I said so." It already has more than 21,000 likes and 3,000 comments. No word from the campaign if Snoop will appear alongside Dr. Paul this week in Vegas. In September, Vaughn joined Paul in Reno.

    PERRY: According to FEC reports, Rick Perry raised just $2.9 million in from October to December of last year, a fraction of the $17 million he raised during his first quarter as a candidate.

    A campaign must read: “Requiem for a campaign: Rick Perry’s rise and fall,” by Carrie Dann.

    ROMNEY: The Times says of Romney’s margin in Florida that his team “is not just playing to win here, but to win as big as possible, aides said, preferably by more than the 12-point margin Mr. Gingrich had in the South Carolina primary on Jan. 21. The Romney team wants to do so not just for bragging rights or out of ego, but to try to stave off a protracted nomination fight and undercut Mr. Gingrich’s promise to take the campaign all the way to the convention here in August.”

    “Newt Gingrich complains Mitt Romney has waged the nastiest, most untruthful campaign he can recall after he upset the heretofore GOP presidential front-runner in South Carolina,” the Boston Globe writes. “He should dial the time machine back to 2000 and talk to John McCain. George W. Bush, stunned by an 18-point New Hampshire primary loss to McCain, waged a scorched-earth campaign that year against him in, of all places, South Carolina. Now Romney, employing a campaign with striking parallels, is on the cusp of the same kind of agenda-setting win in Florida today that Bush scored 12 years ago.”

    The Boston Globe looks at how Mitt Romney talks about his father’s birth in Mexico when wooing Florida voters.

    “One of these days, Newt!” the New York Post writes. Mocking Gingrich’s plan for an American moon colony, Romney said yesterday, “Send him to the moon!”

    SANTORUM: WaPo looks at Santorum’s choice to remain in the GOP race despite his disabled daughter’s recent hospitalization.

  • Obama agenda: Headhunter-in-chief

    “President Obama has pledged not to rest until everyone looking for a job finds one. On Monday, he upped the ante on that promise, volunteering to help a woman find work for her unemployed husband,” the Washington Post writes. “Obama was answering questions from so-called ordinary Americans during an online chat that was broadcast on the Google+ Hangout social media site and YouTube when a woman named Jennifer Weddel, of Texas, told him that her husband, an engineer, had been unable to find a position in his chosen field for three years.”

    More: “Obama appeared surprised, asking Weddel what kind of engineer her husband was. He noted that while work for civil engineers might have slowed during the recession, business leaders have told him that there is a shortage of specialized engineers--and therefore, ample job opportunities--in the high-tech field. ‘We should get his resume and forward it to the companies telling me they cannot find enough engineers in this field,’ Obama suggested.”

    “Weddel cut him off to press again on the visa question, before telling Obama that her husband makes semi-conductors. ‘If you send me your husband’s resume, I’d be interested in finding out what is happening,’ Obama said. ‘That kind of engineer should be able to find something right away. . . . I will follow up on this.’”

    The Republican National Committee and conservative news outlets seized on Obama’s choice of words – “interesting” – during this exchange, to attempt to portray Obama as being out of touch. "It is interesting to me -- and I meant what I said if your send me your husband's resume, I'd be interested in finding out exactly what's happening right there because the word that we're getting is that somebody in that type of high-tech field, that kind of engineer, should be able to find something right away.

  • Congress: House GOP focuses on English as official language

    GOP lawmakers are getting closer to a vote on making English the nation’s official language, writes The Hill.

    “A ban on insider trading by members of Congress cleared a key procedural hurdle Monday in the Senate, moving toward final passage and a House vote on similar legislation later next month,” per NBC’s Frank Thorp and msnbc.com’s Mike O’Brien.

  • More 2012: A shift in tone

    “A year after a coterie of new Republican governors swept into the statehouses and put in place aggressive agendas to cut spending and curb union powers, sparking strong backlashes in many places, many of them are adopting decidedly more moderate tones as they begin their sophomore year in office,” writes the NYT

    “President Barack Obama may be pushing a new plan to "bring manufacturing back" as a way to boost his own re-election case in key Midwestern swing states, but vulnerable Democratic Senators in the Rust Belt hope it will bolster their electoral chances, too,” Roll Call reports.

  • Santorum says ailing daughter 'had a big smile on her face'

    By NBC's Andrew Rafferty

    LUVERNE, MN -- Those thinking Rick Santorum would never be able to recapture what his campaign had in the Hawkeye State were wrong, at least for a night, when the Iowa caucus victor made a stop here in a town just ten miles north of the state that catapulted his candidacy.

    Santorum held his first campaign event in a part of Minnesota just north of Lyon County Iowa, the northwest most part of Iowa with a large contingent of evangelical voters and an area where caucus returns were overwhelmingly in his favor.

    Even the originally scheduled venue, a Pizza Ranch restaurant , was reminiscent of his Iowa campaign.  He held more than 30 town halls at the restaurants located throughout the state.  Monday's town hall ended up being moved to a theater next door to accommodate the 300 person crowd, though he stopped by after to grab a bite.

    "I figured, lets start bordering Lyon County as a point of strength...and make this the focal point, the starting point, for our campaign across Minnesota," said Santorum.

    It was the former Pennsylvania senators first day back on the trail since his 3-year-old daughter was admitted to a Virginia hospital after developing pneumonia in both lungs.  Bella Santorum suffers from the genetic disorder Trisomy 18 and has battled the life threatening illness all of her life.  She is still in the hospital but has shown major improvements.

    "I was with her last night in the hospital bed, laid with her and slept with her last night," said Santorum.  "She woke up this morning and had a big smile on her face and I thought, 'OK, dad can go back to work now.'"

    He canceled campaign events in Florida on Sunday, and chose to continue his campaign with a stop in Missouri on Monday before heading to Minnesota.  He will watch Florida returns in from his Nevada headquarters.

    "I don't know what's going to happen in Florida tomorrow, but it's only one race," he said. "Everyone says, 'Oh it's over then.'  It will not be. This race is going to go on a long time, and it needs to go on a long time."

    Attempting to win over voters ahead of the Minnesota's Feb. 7 caucus, Santorum painted himself as the true social conservative in the race.

    He talked about protecting anti-abortion rights and the importance of family -- points that have played less of a role in his stump speech since leaving Iowa.  Abandoning Florida the day before the primary shows he is focusing outside the expensive where he struggled to compete with his better funded GOP rivals and where recent polls have him a distant third.

    "This is one of those races that we shouldn't make rash decisions just because someone has the most money.  Let me assure you, no matter how much more money Gov. Romney has than either Newt or I have, he's not going to have near the money President Obama's going to have.  So if you think that we're going to win this race because Gov. Romney will have more money to beat up Barack Obama, then Barack Obama will have to beat him up, you're wrong," said Santorum. "Having the most money isnt going to win this race.  having the best candidate with the best ideas"

    It is caucus states like Minnesota, Colorado and Nevada were the presidential hopeful is now focusing in the hopes of being able to pick up delegates without having to outright win a state.  His message is that the baggage and records of his competitors will be a distraction in a head-to-head matchup with President Obama.

    The general election "can't be about someone who is an undisciplined politician who is coming up with a new idea every ten seconds, most of which don't make any sense. Or someone who is a recent conservative in order to be able to win an election as is in both of their cases, on the major issues of the day,"

    the GOP hopeful told the crowd.  Santorum has previously taken swipes at former Speaker Newt Gingrich for proposing a permanent U.S. base on the moon, Mitt Romney for never having won an election while running as a conservative.

    The Santorum campaign will split time between Colorado and Nevada over the early part of this week.

  • Iowa GOP Chair expected to step down

    By NBC's Alex Moe

     

    Matt Strawn is expected to step down as Chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa soon, sources tell NBC News.

    The exact timing and reason for the anticipated resignation is unknown.

    Questions were raised about Strawn's continuation as Chairman of the GOP after the final Iowa Caucus votes came in earlier this month.

    Mitt Romney was declared the winner of the caucus by 8 votes during the wee hours of the morning on caucus night. After the certified results came in nearly two weeks later, Rick Santorum pulled ahead of Romney by 34 votes.

    The switch of winners was not the full extent of the discrepancy -- there were also 8 final precinct numbers missing.

    The Party originally sent out a press release on Jan. 19th congratulating both Romney and Santorum without necessarily declaring a winner. Later that day, however, Strawn went on an Iowa radio station and began to change his tone on the subject and leaned towards saying Santorum was the winner.

    Because of the confusion, the Iowa GOP was forced to send a press release on Jan. 20th stating: "In order to clarify conflicting reports and to affirm the results released January 18 by the Republican Party of Iowa, Chairman Matthew Strawn and the State Central Committee declared Senator Rick Santorum the winner of the 2012 Iowa Caucus."

    One Iowa State Central Committee (SCC) member who had not heard about the possible resignation of Strawn told NBC News, "I certainly hope it isn't true. He's the best chairman we've had in Iowa as long as I've been active in politics."

    The SCC holds their quarterly meeting next month.

  • Newt who? Romney dispenses with attacks in final Fla. campaign stop

    By NBC's Garrett Haake

     

     THE VILLAGES, Fla. -- For the first time this week, something was notably missing from Mitt Romney's Florida stump speech: any mention of Newt Gingrich.

    In sixteen minutes on the stump here at his final public appearance before Florida's primary votes are counted Romney criticized President Obama, joked about Medicare and even led a singalong, but never even alluded to his closest rival here, Gingrich. At his afternoon stop in Dunedin, Romney mentioned the former speaker less than one minute into his remarks, accusing him of "flailing" in his attacks on Romney.

    Now, with more than 600,000 early and absentee votes already cast, and polling places set to open tomorrow morning in this pivotal primary state, Romney appears to be resting on a comfortable lead -- which four recent polls all peg between eight and sixteen percent.

    But a hoarse, visibly tired Romney was not completely restrained here tonight -- joking with the crowd of almost exclusively retirees here that he knew "some of them" were probably on Medicare.

    And after long making a recitation of the lyrics of "America the Beautiful" a hallmark of his stump speech, Romney tonight led the crowd in a singalong of the "patriotic hymn," as he refers to it.

    After three events today, and with each crowd larger than the one before it, Romney will return to Tampa tonight, where he will hold his primary night party on Tuesday. An event tentatively scheduled for Tuesday morning was scrapped tonight, and Romney's next public appearance will be on stage tomorrow night, after the votes are cast.

  • Todd Palin to robo-call for Gingrich; Gingrich calls Romney campaign 'pathetic'

    By Jo Ling Kent, NBC News

    FORT MYERS, FL--Thousands of Floridians will hear the voice of Todd Palin in their homes tomorrow as they head out to the polls on primary day. The former GOP vice presidential candidate's husband is recording a get-out-the-vote robo-call in support of Newt Gingrich that will go out across the state, campaign spokesman RC Hammond told NBC News.

    Gingrich also revealed that Todd Palin will campaign on his behalf on the trail, though he did not specific exactly how.

    "I'm also delighted Todd Palin has agreed to do calls for us and campaign for us," Gingrich told a crowd at Page Field this afternoon.

    "And I thought Sarah Palin's op-ed that she posted on Friday and the interviews she did this weekend are pretty clear."

    Arriving more than 90 minutes late to the fourth stop of his fly-around trip across the state without any mention of his delay, a worn out-sounding Gingrich also slammed the Romney campaign as "pathetic."

    Citing a New York Times article about the Romney campaign's strategy to defeat Gingrich in Florida, the former speaker of the House responded, "What a pathetic situation to be running for the President of the United States with nothing positive to say."

    "All you got to do is try to tear your opponent down to where they get smaller than you are, that's the Romney model," Gingrich added, referring to negative television ads and press conference calls by Romney's organization.

    "Now that's not my model...I want to run a big campaign against Barack Obama, not a small campaign."

    Gingrich aggressively criticized the millions of dollars Romney has raised for his campaign, that he believes funded ads attacking him.

    "Your money is recycled through Goldman Sachs to Mitt Romney to tell you a bunch of falsehoods," Gingrich said.

    Herman Cain, who along with Michael Reagan introduced Gingrich today, chimed in on the same note.

    "Let me say this: to any undecided voters...look past all of the gutter politics and negativity and all of the sideshows," Cain bellowed.

    "Look at where Newt Gingrich stands on solving stuff!"

    Beyond the campaign jabs, it was abundantly clear that Gingrich believes he needs a surge of last-minute support to finish on top tomorrow. Although he cited two unnamed polls that he said show him closing the gap and tying Romney, Gingrich implored voters to mobilize for him: "We have a lot of work to do in the next few hours."

    "Go home and email your friends this afternoon," he told about 300 voters in the setting Florida sun. "Get on Facebook this afternoon...Twitter on the way home."

  • Reagan sources say Gingrich “torch” quote taken out of context

    By Adam Perez-Ruiz

    Calling himself “the legitimate heir to the Reagan movement,” Newt Gingrich recently cited a 1995 speech by Nancy Reagan in which the former First Lady said that her husband “passed on the torch” to him.

    “In 1995, Nancy Reagan at the Goldwater Institute was very generous,” Gingrich told voters in Florida on Sunday. “And she said ‘Just as Barry gave the torch to Ronny, Ronny has passed on the torch to Newt.’”

    But as NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports, Gingrich appears to be taking that comment out of context.

    Sources close to Nancy Reagan said the speech itself was written by the host at the Goldwater Organization – where Mrs. Reagan delivered the remarks - and that she was referring generally to Congress and not specifically to the former Speaker, Mitchell reported on her MSNBC program.

    Gingrich’s claim that he was a key figure in the Reagan revolution in 1980s is “patently false,” added Al Hunt, executive editor of Bloomberg News, during an appearance on Mitchell’s show.

    Hunt said that Reagan biographer Lou Cannon has contended that Gingrich had nothing to do with the “Reagan Revolution.”

    “He was a backbencher. Lou’s not even sure Reagan knew who Gingrich was,” Hunt said.

    Hunt painted a stark contrast between “can-do optimist” Reagan and Gingrich, whose appeal derives from being able to “attack Democrats better than anybody.”

    “I think they are quite different people. And certainly at a minimum, the Speaker’s claims -- or his latter-day Reaganism -- are exaggerated” Hunt added.

    In Florida, Gingrich has taken a hard line on stem cell research, a contrast to Nancy Reagan’s position and his own stance in 2001, when he said some excess cells from in vitro fertilization could be used for research.

    The former first lady has championed for stem cell research, an issue that was inspired by her husband’s Alzheimer’s treatment.

    “I would eliminate all funding for any stem cell research which came from the killing of life,” Gingrich said Saturday at the Baptist Church in Winter Park. “This was never an argument about science. This was the use of science to justify desensitizing the society to killing babies.”

  • Ban on congressional insider trading clears key Senate hurdle

    By NBC's Frank Thorp and msnbc.com's Michael O'Brien

    A ban on insider trading by members of Congress cleared a key procedural hurdle Monday in the Senate, moving toward final passage and a House vote on similar legislation later next month.

    A bipartisan group of senators voted 93 to 2 in favor of ending debate on the STOCK Act, a piece of legislation meant to prohibit members of Congress, their families and staff from using any information gleaned while working on the Hill to execute stock transactions.

    The legislation 60 votes to attain "cloture," or limit debate and move toward final passage. The bill will be debated and amendments will be attached over the next week. It's unclear when the final vote will occur.

    The House version will expand certain restrictions on insider trading to White House staff and is also expected to create clear restrictions on members of Congress making land deals using insider information. The House is looking to move on that legislation within a month.

    "Leader Cantor plans to move an expanded version of the STOCK Act through the House in February to make it clear that those in Congress are subject to the same laws as everyone else," Laena Fallon, a spokeswoman for Cantor's office told NBC.

    Fervor over insider trading on Capitol Hill reached a peak last fall following the airing of a "60 Minutes" segment questioning whether lawmakers including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) and Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) made investments based on their knowledge of legislative activity to which they would be privy.

    Pelosi and other lawmakers named in the piece disputed any allegation of impropriety, but a number of lawmakers in the meanwhile proposed versions of the STOCK Act to address any perception of poor ethics.

    President Obama lent his support to the legislation in his State of the Union address. "Send me a bill that bans insider trading by members of Congress; I will sign it tomorrow," he said. On Monday, his administration issued a formal endorsement of the Senate bill.

    Today during a conference call, Sens. Kristen Gillibrand (D-NY), Jon Tester (D-MT), and Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) each said the STOCK act was important to pass to remind the American people that Congress can actually achieve something.

    "The American people need to know that their elected leaders play by the exact same rules that they play by," Gillibrand told reporters, "We have to show, number one: we're not above the law, number two: that we play by the same exact rules as every other american, and three: that we can actually get something done."

    But each also admitted that the Senate bill, in its current form, does not have support with the Republican leadership in the House, something that will likely result in the two versions of the bill being "conferenced" after they pass their respective chambers. "We're not opposed to working together," Stabenow said. 

    But the three lawmakers did not hold back the frustration they have with House Republicans, who stopped a mark-up of the STOCK Act in it's current forms late last year after Cantor decided that the bill needed to be expanded.

    "The fact that House Republican leadership is unwilling to take up a bill that already has fantastically strong bipartisan support shows their inability to lead on an issue that the people have agreement on," Gillibrand said, "If Eric Cantor wants to lead another piece of legislation, God bless him."

  • As primary war wages, Romney's support with independents dips

    By NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Carrie Dann

    In a warning sign for Mitt Romney that the long GOP primary fight may be hurting his image with the general electorate, the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finds that independent voters have sharply soured on the Republican frontrunner in the last month.

    In fact, Romney’s negative ratings with independents have jumped 13 points since December.

    Last month, Romney’s favorable/unfavorable split with independents was 21 percent to 29 percent. In November, 22 percent of indies viewed him in a negative light compared to 21 percent who gave him a thumbs up in the NBC/WSJ poll.

    But in the latest poll, released last week, Romney’s positive score was essentially unchanged at 22%. His negative score, however, jumped to 42 percent with independents, his highest recorded negative rating in the poll with the crucial voting bloc.

    The cause could be the race's recent tough rhetoric and widely-viewed debates since the early voting contests began in Iowa and New Hampshire at the beginning of this year. The GOP race has come into sharper focus for a wider electorate, curious about the candidates – and wondering who will emerge to face President Barack Obama in an election year in which the country’s economic situation is uncertain.

    Since the last poll was conducted, Romney won, then lost Iowa narrowly; he won decidedly in New Hampshire then lost decisively in South Carolina; and there have been eight nationally televised debates, including two in the run up to this contentious GOP primary fight in Florida.

    Romney seems on track to win by a solid margin in Florida tomorrow, but as Marist polling Director Lee Miringoff said, "If Romney locks up the nomination any time soon, he's going to have to pivot quickly to win back independents."

  • Gingrich: I wouldn't accept debate versus Obama moderated by reporters

    By NBC's Jamie Novogrod and msnbc.com's Michael O'Brien

    Newt Gingrich threatened Monday to skip any debate as the Republican nominee versus President Obama that's moderated by a member of the media.

    "As your nominee, I will not accept debates in the fall in which the reporters are the moderators," Gingrich said at a rally in Pensacola. "We don’t need to have a second Obama person at the debate."

    The threat is in keeping with the scorn with which the former House speaker has treated the press throughout the campaign, particularly at debates. Gingrich most notably won a standing ovation by angrily dismissing a question at a South Carolina debate having to do with extramarital allegations made by an ex-wife.

    Moreover, Gingrich has made his debating prowess a central selling point of his candidacy, promising fantastical showdowns with Obama in the general election. A frequent applause line for Gingrich, for instance, is his promise to challenge the president to seven, three-hour Lincoln-Douglas style debates.

    As a reminder, though, presidential debates are governed by the Commission on Presidential Debates, which have organized the general election debates since 1998. The commission has already set the number of presidential debates in 2012 at three, slated for this October. The moderators in these debates have not been announced, but will almost certainly be members of the media.

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