It’s a swing state that’s been the site of many down-to-the-wire elections, and a new poll indicates that the Senate race in Pennsylvania might be no exception.

The Susquehanna Polling & Research survey conducted for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review poll shows Democrat Joe Sestak within the margin of error in the race against Republican Pat Toomey for the seat that Republican-turned-Democrat Sen. Arlen Specter held for 30 years.

The poll found Sestak trailing Toomey 42 percent to 45 percent. The margin of error is 3.5 percent.

Sestak, who defeated Specter in the May 18 primary, is winning about 40 percent of Independents, according to the survey, compared to 30 percent who support Toomey. About one in 10 voters are undecided.

Toomey has consistently led in most polls since the primary. A recent CNN/Time poll gave Toomey an edge of 5 points in the race, while Franklin & Marshall College’s poll put the spread at nine last week.

NBC News rates this race a toss-up.

They may have lost their party's primary to Tea Party upstarts but Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Delaware Rep. Mike Castle are each making it harder for their vanquishers to win in November – by taking opposing actions.

In Alaska, Murkowski has decided to launch a write-in bid in order to retain her Senate seat. As she was weighing a decision on an expensive and uncertain write-in effort, Murkowski pointed to the smaller subset of Republican primary voters who chose upstart Joe Miller over her as outliers in the state. "When you think about the outcome of that, in a closed Republican primary, how many Alaskans were actually able to weigh in? So what is the will of the constituency? When you hear this outpouring of support and concern -- concern about the future of the state of Alaska and our representation here in the Senate -- you do feel a responsibility," she told the Anchorage Daily News.

Certainly, as an incumbent senator and the daughter of Frank Murkowski, a longtime senator and former governor himself, Murkowski's new campaign could pull significant support in November. And a recent survey of the race suggest she's got a shot to win despite the hurdles of a write-in effort.

When Tea Party favorite Christine O'Donnell shocked Castle in Delaware's Republican senate primary, a similar write-in effort appeared as though it could work as well as the one Murkowski decided on. Castle served two terms as governor of the state and has served in the House since 1992. His name recognition alone would have been a powerful argument in favor of following that path.

But Castle decided not to, saying in a statement, "While I would have been honored to represent Delaware in the U.S. Senate, I do not believe that seeking office in this manner is in the best interest of all Delawareans."

It's worth noting that a vigorously waged write-in bid by Castle likely would have drained votes from Democrat Chris Coons, not O'Donnell. Castle was viewed as a heavy favorite for the seat had he made it to the general election, after all.

The two states certainly lean in different direction – Alaska to the right and Delaware to the left. For that reason, Miller remains in position to win in, though if he does not it will almost certainly be because of Murkowski's efforts. O'Donnell remains a big underdog in, but had the moderate Castle stayed in the fray, her chances may have improved somewhat.

Murkowski calls it "will of the constituency," Castle frames it as what is in "the best interest" of his state. By taking different roads, both defeated incumbents are getting making the path to the senate more difficult for the insurgents who took them down.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Ever since Charlie Crist launched his independent bid for Florida Senate's seat, Democrats have had two opportunities to win the three-way contest -- either with Crist (who would likely caucus with the Senate Dems) or with the Dem nominee (Kendrick Meek).

But polls increasingly point to the third option taking place: Republican Marco Rubio winning.

A new Quinnipiac poll has Rubio at 46% among likely voters, with Crist at 33% and Meek at 18%. That matches a new CNN/Time poll, which has Rubio at 42%, Crist at 31%, and Meek at 23%.

What appears to be happening is that Crist and Meek are dividing the anti-Rubio/Republican vote. And that's even playing out in the TV ad battle.

In recent days, the Meek campaign and Florida Democratic Party have aired a new TV ad hitting Crist for conservative positions and statements the Florida governor has made in the past.

Meanwhile, Crist has an ad blasting both Meek and Rubio.

So the question becomes: Are the Meek and Crist camps engaging in mutually assured destruction, guaranteeing a Rubio win?

Meek spokesman Adam Sharon argues that there is no path to victory for Crist, while there is one for Meek (by consolidating the Democratic vote). Sharon adds that as polls continue to show Meek ticking up -- and Crist ticking down -- the Meek camp will begin to engage Rubio if they pull ahead of Crist. "Once we turn the corner and get ahead of Crist ... then it becomes a totally different race."

Florida Democratic Party spokesman Eric Jotkoff tells First Read: “Besides fighting to ensure Kendrick Meek is our next U.S. senator because it is the right thing to do, Florida Democrats know that Kendrick is the only candidate who can beat Marco Rubio. Kendrick is the only candidate who can stop Rubio’s extreme philosophical agenda -- the Tea Party agenda that Rubio wants to impose on Florida.”

An SEIU-backed independent expenditure campaign, Cambiando California, is launching a new Spanish-language TV ad hitting California GOP gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman for attacking undocumented immigrants -- but then employing one for nine years.

Here's the script (translated to English):
Meg Whitman says she's a different kind of Republican…
But Pete Wilson is in charge of her campaign.
Whitman attacks undocumented workers to win votes, but an undocumented woman worked in her home for nine years.
She says she'll create jobs - but wants to eliminate forty-thousand state jobs, including teachers and nurses.
Whitman says one thing in Spanish --- and something different in English.
The real Meg Whitman has no shame.
She's a two-faced woman

Here's the ad:

From NBC's Savannah Guthrie
As expected, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel will step down Friday, to make a bid for Chicago mayor.

White House senior adviser Pete Rouse -- who was Obama's chief of staff when he served in the Senate -- will be named as his successor, most likely on an acting basis.

Team Pawlenty’s got to be happy about this one.

The libertarian Cato Institute published its 2010 fiscal policy “report card” of America’s governors Thursday, giving Minnesota chief executive and presumed 2012 presidential contender Tim Pawlenty one of the four “A” grades it doled out.

The report -- which uses data on spending, revenue, and tax rates to compute a grade based on each governor’s “success at restraining taxes and spending since 2008,” -- praised the folksy Midwesterner for vetoing a gas tax as well as several income tax rate hikes, and for proposing a constitutional amendment to limit the growth of spending.

Pawlenty outperformed two other current governors whose names have been frequently mentioned in the 2012 Republican shortlist: Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana and Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi.

Other governors receiving the top grade: Mark Sanford of South Carolina, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, and Democratic Senate contender Joe Manchin of West Virginia.

Daniels, often described as a potential dark horse contender in part because of his reputation for proposing slashes to federal programs as President George W. Bush’s budget director, scored a B. “Governor Daniels is a fiscal conservative, but he seems to focus more on balancing the state budget than shrinking the size of government,” the Institute wrote.

Barbour, the GOP fundraising powerhouse who chairs the Republican Governors Association, earned a C grade. The Institute noted Barbour’s tax increases on hospitals and cigarettes in its argument that Barbour’s “conservative reputation” isn’t reflected in his record on taxes and spending.

Other presidential hopefuls have been graded in previous years. Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachussetts – who, as some of us noted this morning, is the GOP frontrunner for the nomination -- received a C in the group’s 2006 study. Gov. Mike Huckabee was given a grade of “D” in the institute’s evaluation of his governorship in 2006 – mostly due to tax increases he proposed in his second term.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin was not graded in the Cato Institute’s previous studies. The study does not include Alaska in its biennial report card, explains author Chris Edwards, because much of the state’s revenue comes from oil, making it difficult to compare to other states.

Governors who have not been in office for the length of two annual budget cycles are also not graded, Edwards adds. That means that fans of New Jersey Republican Gov. Chris Christie will also have to wait another two years to see how he matches up.

NBC/WSJ poll shows that Romney begins the 2012 GOP presidential race in a weaker position than Bob Dole or John McCain ever did… Gingrich and Palin get the largest Tea Party “bounce” in the poll… Paladino’s anger on display in threat to “take out” New York Post reporter… Meg Whitman’s “Maid in America” problem… Castle won’t run as a write-in candidate… Murkowski’s two new TV ads… Palin to headline two RNC rallies… Profiling TN-6… And Rubio leads in yet another FL SEN poll.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** The GOP’s weak 2012 front-runner: Over the past year, the political world has operated under the assumption that Mitt Romney is the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination in 2012. After all, he has a wide fundraising network and a deep roster of potential campaign talent. What’s more, Republicans almost always nominate their runner-up from the previous cycle (though both Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin might also claim that status). But if Romney is the front-runner, he’s starting out at a much weaker position than Bob Dole or John McCain ever did at this point in the ’96 and ’08 cycles. According to our latest NBC/WSJ poll, Romney’s national fav/unfav is upside down at 21%-30%, compared with Dole’s net-positive 38%-25% in Sept. ’94 and McCain’s 40%-16% in June ’06. Intensity is a problem, too, for Romney. Just 6% view him VERY positively, versus 14% for Dole in ’94 and 11% for McCain in ’06.

*** Romney’s weak GOP support: And then there are Republicans’ views of Romney. His fav/unfav among GOPers and conservatives is, respectively, 38%-17% and 30%-19%. For Dole in ’94, it was 65%-9% and 58%-14%. And for McCain in ’06, it was 47%-16% and 40%-17%. So Romney right now doesn’t appear to be exciting conservatives, Republicans, or the public at large. And it’s not like he’s an unknown political entity after 2008. What has to especially concern Team Romney is that he’s starting -- among Republicans and conservatives -- at a weaker position than McCain was in ’06, and the ’06 version of McCain was hardly adored by the right. Bottom line: While you can’t write off Romney, the GOP’s 2012 field has the potential to be wider open than Team Romney is hoping.

*** The Tea Party bounce: The NBC/WSJ poll also shows that Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin see their popularity jump among Tea Party supporters. Gingrich’s fav/unfav among Republicans is 42%-16%, but among Tea Party supporters, it’s 54%-16% -- a 12-point increase. For Palin, the bounce is 10 points (55%-17% to 65%-13%). For Huckabee, it’s four points (49%-11% to 53%-13%). And for Romney, it’s just three points (38%-17% to 41%-16%). Note: Our poll didn’t measure other 2012 possibilities, like Tim Pawlenty, Haley Barbour, John Thune, Mitch Daniels, and Mike Pence. One other factor that distinguishes Romney from the other three Republicans we tested: He's the only one without a FOX TV contract, which means less exposure to the GOP base on a daily or even a weekly basis.

*** Paladino’s anger: Speaking of the Tea Party, NBC Nightly News last night profiled New York gubernatorial nominee Carl Paladino, who epitomizes the Tea Party’s anger and campaign against government. “I am angry,” Paladino said in the piece. “That's OK; it’s all right to show people that you're angry. It's sort of gets the discussion going.” But when is the anger too much? Paladino is now caught on tape threatening New York Post reporter Fred Dicker over digging into the daughter that Paladino had out of wedlock. “If you send another goon to my daughter’s house, I will take you out, buddy,” Paladino yells at Dicker. The reporter replies, “You’re going to take me out? How are you going to do that?” Paladino answers, “Watch.” Why should folks care about Paladino, a candidate who will likely lose in November? Because if he becomes an anchor on the Republican ticket, he could cost the GOP a chance at three to five House seats.

*** Maid in America: In California, Meg Whitman’s gubernatorial campaign is in damage-control mode as a former Whitman housekeeper -- with celebrity lawyer Gloria Allred’s help -- alleged that she was exploited and financially abused. Yet here is the L.A. Times’ take: “Whitman acknowledged Wednesday that she paid an undocumented worker to clean her residence and provide other services in her home for nine years but insisted that she had been unaware of the woman's immigration status.” More: “The controversy poses potential threats to Whitman's campaign. A similar incident severely damaged Michael Huffington's effort to be elected U.S. senator from California in 1994. Whitman has made a point in her campaign that employers should be held responsible if they hire illegal workers.” The Whitman camp has responded that the housekeeper provided false documents about her immigration status, and that Allred has been a Democratic supporter. By the way, don’t be surprised if you start seeing some Dem groups using this controversy in ads targeting Hispanic voters.

*** Castle won’t run as a write-in candidate: Last night, Delaware Rep. Mike Castle, who lost his Senate GOP primary to Christine O’Donnell earlier this month, announced that he would NOT run as a write-in candidate. “While I would have been honored to represent Delaware in the U.S. Senate, I do not believe that seeking office in this manner is in the best interest of all Delawareans,” he said in a statement. “Therefore, it's time for Jane and me to begin thinking about the next chapter of our lives.”

*** Murkowski’s two new TV ads: And speaking of write-in campaigns, NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell reports that Lisa Murkowski’s camp has released two new TV ads that deal directly with her unconventional write-in bid to retain her Senate seat. In one ad, Murkowski takes on the California-based Tea Party Express, and the second one -- called "Murkowski Spelling Clinic 101" -- has fun with a spelling test of her last name.

*** Palin to hit two RNC rallies: First Read has confirmed that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will headline two Republican National Committee rallies -- in Anaheim, CA on Oct. 16, and in Orlando, FL on Oct. 23.

*** 75 House races to watch: TN-6: The Democratic nominee to fill the seat of retiring Rep. Bart Gordon (D) is Iraq vet Brett Carter. The GOP nominee is state Sen. Diane Black. In ’08, McCain grabbed 56% of the vote in this district -- located in the middle part of the state -- while Bush got 53% in ’04. As of July 16, Carter had nearly $100,000 in the bank, versus Black’s nearly $200,000. Both Cook and Rothenberg rate the contest as Lean Republican.

*** More midterm news: In Florida, yet another poll -- this one Quinnipiac -- shows Marco Rubio leading the Senate contest with 46% among likely voters, while Charlie Crist is at 33% and Kendrick Meek is at 18%. http://bit.ly/bs2uLJ

Countdown to Election Day 2010: 33 days

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The Washington Post: “At a recreation center in House Whip Eric Cantor's district [in Richmond, VA], Obama accused the Republican of proposing intellectually dishonest policies as part of the GOP's recently released ‘Pledge to America.’ ‘I know your congressman here I think has strong ideas about what he says he wants to do,’ Obama said. But, he said, the math behind the Republican proposal - which includes keeping the Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthiest 2 percent of Americans while balancing the budget – ‘doesn't add up.’”

More: “Taking the argument directly to Cantor and other Republican leaders is part of a new, aggressive approach for Obama, who has been criticized by members of his party for being too cautious and concerned about offending his opponents. With five weeks until the midterm elections, Obama seems to be shedding some of that caution in favor of a sharper tone aimed at Republicans - and even Democrats.”

Cantor’s response: “After Wednesday's event, Cantor accused Obama of being ‘out of touch’ and trying to ‘demonize success.’ ‘President Obama may want to pretend otherwise, but the stale message that he brought to Virginia today won't help a single person get back to work, and that's where my focus is,’ Cantor said in a statement.”

The AP points out the constant absent foe in President Obama’s backyard visits: the GOP. “Despite all his mingling with middle class voters… Obama's chief focus was on people who never showed up: congressional Republicans and their corporate allies who, the president said, are trying to thwart his administration's progress and turn the clock back to the George W. Bush era.”

After meeting with congressional Democratic leadership this morning in the Oval Office, including Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, the president will help raise money for the Democratic National Committee at a private residence in Washington. He will also make remarks at a DNC event.

Michelle Obama stars in a new Disney ad to promote better eating and a more active lifestyle.

“Battle-weary members of Congress are coming soon to neighborhoods near you to press for re-election, more eager to campaign before angry constituents than compromise in Washington on tax cuts, child nutrition or a federal budget,” the AP writes.

“After pushing Democratic leaders for nearly three weeks to stop trying to find the one bill that could reverse the majority’s poor election prospects, vulnerable House and Senate Democrats finally got what they wanted: an early ticket home to campaign,” Roll Call writes. “But the party remains as divided as ever on its pre-election strategy, with some Members warning that Democrats will regret not drawing a sharper contrast with Republicans on middle-class tax cuts in particular.”

“House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) on Wednesday persuaded his GOP colleagues to pledge millions of dollars to the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), according to lawmakers. Boehner pledged to give $1 million if members of his conference vowed to deliver $3 million,” The Hill reports. “And as the time came to call on members for donations, Boehner pointed to an individual standing next to the entrance to the meeting room and said, ‘Block the doors. Nobody’s leaving.’ Within 35 minutes, the NRCC had raised more than $4 million in pledges from members, including Boehner’s check for $1 million.”

By a 228-194 margin, the “House passed a temporary spending measure needed to keep federal agencies operating when the new budget year starts Friday.”

Sen. Al “Franken suffered another embarrassing moment Wednesday morning when he mistakenly recognized Sen. Tom Udall as the ‘senator from Utah.’ Udall quickly corrected Franken by noting that he’s from New Mexico. ‘Oh, God,’ Franken boomed into his microphone. ‘I’m sorry.’ ‘The senator from New Mexico,’ Franken said, emphasizing ‘New Mexico’ to make up for his mistake.”

“Congress approved a blueprint for NASA's future Wednesday that extends the life of the space shuttle program for a year while backing President Barack Obama's intent to use commercial carriers to lift humans into near-Earth space,” the AP says. “The bill passed by the House on a 304-118 vote brings major changes to NASA's space agenda: It dismantles the Constellation program under which former President George W. Bush sought to return astronauts to the moon, and extends the life of the International Space Station from 2015 to 2020. The Senate passed the measure last month.”

“Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is packing in three fundraisers for Republican candidates in New Hampshire, his fourth stop there since drawing presidential buzz,” the Boston Globe reports. He’s raising money for gubernatorial candidate John Stephen and House candidate Frank Guinta. Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown will be in New Hampshire Oct. 8th Stephen. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal will be in the Granite State Oct. 14th for Stephen.

Pawlenty, by the way, has signed on with speaker’s bureau Leading Authorities so he can give paid speeches once his term as governor of Minnesota is up.

“Many wealthy Democratic patrons, who in the past have played major roles financing outside groups to help elect the party’s candidates, are largely sitting out these crucial midterm elections,” the New York Times writes.

The Boston Globe’s headline: “Middle class tax-cut issue backfiring on Democrats.” The story’s lead: “President Obama’s urgent call for Congress to immediately extend tax breaks for the middle class was supposed to create a defining Democratic issue and cast Republicans as defenders of the rich on the eve of crucial midterm elections. Now, three weeks later, Democrats are further divided and Republicans are using the tax cut issue to their advantage.”

Stu Rothenberg warns that the Senate could still be a “nightmare” for Democrats: “Delaware’s Republican primary may well have lulled Democrats into a sense of complacency about their ability to hold the Senate after November’s elections. They would be wise to wake up if they want to avoid a nasty surprise on election night.” He concludes: “Republicans would need a strong wave to carry through Election Day to make a 10-seat net gain. While that’s not yet likely, Senate Democrats can’t take their East Coast/West Coast firewall for granted.”

ALASKA: A CNN/Time poll has Joe Miller (R) up just 38%-36% over Lisa Murkowski (R), who’s running a write-in bid. Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) pulls 22%.

CALIFORNIA: CNN/Time has the CA GOV race Jerry Brown 52%, Whitman 43%.

But is something off? CNN/Time has Barbara Boxer leading Carly Fiorina 56%-37%?

DELAWARE: Congressman Mike Castle has decided against a write-in bid. He said in a statement, in part: “While I would have been honored to represent Delaware in the U.S. Senate, I do not believe that seeking office in this manner is in the best interest of all Delawareans. Therefore, it's time for Jane and me to begin thinking about the next chapter of our lives. Much of my life has been dedicated to representing Delawareans and it has been my privilege and great honor to serve you and represent our state in the legislature, as Lt. Governor, Governor and in the United States House of Representatives. Delaware is a close community of people who find practical solutions to the complex challenges we face. That characteristic is something that makes our State a very special place to live. I look forward to continuing to serve our State as your Congressman in the remaining months of my term in a principled manner; Delawareans deserve no less.”

FLORIDA: “The Florida Democratic Party is throwing money behind a crushing new ad that reminds voters of [Gov. Charlie] Crist’s past as a partisan Republican, cutting together clips of the governor praising George W. Bush and Sarah Palin, talking up offshore drilling and calling himself ‘a Jeb Bush Republican,’” Politico writes.

According to the St. Petersburg Times’ “Buzz” blog, “The top two candidates for governor -- Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Alex Sink -- combined for 3,038 TV ads in previous Monday-Sunday,” according to a new Nielsen report. “That's about 1,200 more than all three U.S. Senate candidates combined during the same time.”

CNN/Time: FL GOV: Rick Scott 47%, Sink 45%; FL SEN: Rubio 42%, Crist 31%, Meek 23%.

ILLINOIS: CNN/Time has the Senate race: Giannoulias 43%, Kirk 42%.

LOUISIANA: “Trailing by double-digits in recent polls, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Charlie Melancon today unveiled a two-minute campaign ad that attacks Republican incumbent David Vitter his role in the D.C. Madam prostitution scandal,” the New Orleans Times-Picayune reports.

Roll Call: “Melancon Finally Goes Nuclear on Vitter.”

NEW YORK: “New York Republican gubernatorial nominee Carl Paladino alleged Tuesday that Democrat Andrew Cuomo was unfaithful to his ex-wife years ago, a stunning accusation that validated his earlier prediction that the race would be getting nastier,” Politico writes. “Paladino offered no proof of his claim, despite requests for substantiation, and he made it minutes after angrily declaring his 10-year-old daughter — a child from his own affair 10 years ago -- off limits to the press.”

Politico also links to a video of Paladino telling New York Post editor Fred Dicker that he will “take him out” if coverage of his daughter continues.

During his remarks at a town hall in Richmond today, President Obama gave a plug for a rally planned by The Daily Show's Jon Stewart, called the "Campaign to Restore Sanity," contrasting the the tone of the spoof news show with that of its "purposely provocative" cable counterparts.

"What happens is these cable shows and talk show hosts, a lot of them figure out that, 'The more controversial I can be, and I'm calling Obama this name or that name and saying he wasn't born in this country, that will get me attention," the president said.

Part of the challenge of combating purposely provocative shows, Obama added, is creating a way to remind Americans that the country is not as polarized as cable shows would sometimes make it seem.

"Use Jon Stewart, the host of the Daily Show," Obama said. "Apparently he's going to host a rally called something like, 'Americans Who Favor a Return to Sanity or something like that."

He continued that most people -- like the people who will be at the rally -- have more pressing concerns than to worry about the the political beliefs of others.

"They're looking after their families," Obama said, "they don't go around calling people names, they don't make stuff up, they may not be following every single issue because they just don't have time, but they are expecting some common sense and some courtesy."

NBC's Shawna Thomas reports that the 9/11 health bill passed the House by a 268-160 vote today.

More from AP:

The House has approved a bill to give up to $7.4 billion to workers sickened during the cleanup of World Trade Center site after the Sept. 11 attacks. ... Democratic supporters said they were standing up for sick 9/11 heroes. Republican critics branded the bill as yet another big-government entitlement program that would boost taxes and kill jobs.

The bill would provide free health care and compensation to rescue and recovery workers who fell ill after working in the trade center ruins. It was a second showdown for the bill, which failed to pass in a July vote. New York lawmakers have been pushing such a measure for years. Similar legislation is pending in the Senate.

From NBC's Mark Murray and Sarah Ford
California gubernatorial candidate Meg Whitman's campaign is responding to accusations that she subjected to "emotional and financial abuse" her former housekeeper, who was working illegally in the country.

Nicky Diaz, who was Whitman's housekeeper from 2000-2009, claimed in a press conference alongside attorney Gloria Allred that Whitman was aware that she was undocumented and that the Republican candidate fired her only after deciding to run for governor. Diaz also said Whitman failed to pay her on time and did not offer her medical leave during her pregnancy.

Allred said that Whitman ignored a 2003 letter from the Social Security Administration notifying her of discrepancies in the Social Security number that Diaz provided.

Whitman, who has poured millions of her own money into the close race against Democrat former Gov. Jerry Brown, flatly said in a statement that “the charges are without merit.”

Whitman's campaign held a conference call with reporters - though not allowing follow-up questions – before the press conference to address the allegations.

On June 20, 2009, the campaign said, Diaz came to Whitman and confessed that she was not a legal resident of the U.S. and filed false documents. She was then fired by Whitman.

“As required by law, once we learned she was an illegal worker, I immediately terminated Nicky's employment,” Whitman said in a written statement.”It was one of the hardest things I've ever done. I considered Nicky a friend and a part of our extended family.”

The campaign also argued that Allred had given Jerry Brown campaigns contributions in 1982 ($1,000) and in 2006 ($150), and said the timing of this complaint -- 34 days until the election -- was curious.

“I believe Nicky is being manipulated by Gloria Allred for political and financial purposes during the last few weeks of a hotly contested election," the statement read.

*** UPDATE *** A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation poll released Wednesday showed Whitman trailing Brown 52 percent to 43 percent.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
Aides to Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) say he told his Republican colleagues today he will transfer $1 million from his campaign war chest to the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

McCain spent more than $20 million on his Arizona primary and has money left over from this year's campaign as well as 2008 funds that he could not spend by accepting the federal campaign cap in the presidential run. McCain is favored in the general election to win a fifth term.

From NBC's Luke Russert
The following is the list of 39 Democrats who voted with the GOP to not allow Congress to adjourn after current legislative business. Essentially they want to deal with the issue of the Bush tax cuts now and possibly vote to extend all of them.

In this list are many vulnerable House Democrats from swing districts and three members who are running for Senate in November. Those three are Ellsworth (IN), Sestak (PA) and Melancon (LA).

The Democratic no votes: Adler (NJ), Altmire (PA), Arcuri (NY), Bean (IL), Bishop (NY), Bright (AL), Carney (PA), Childers (MS), Connolly (VA), Donnelly (IN), Driehaus (OH), Edwards (TX), Ellsworth (IN), Foster (IL), Giffords (AZ), Heinrich (NM), Herseth Sandlin (SD), Kilroy (OH), Kirkpatrick (AZ), Kratovil (MD), Markey (CO), Marshall (GA), McIntyre (NC), McMahon (NY), McNerney (CA), Melancon (LA), Michaud (ME), Minnick (ID), Mitchell (AZ), Murphy (PA), Nye (VA), Perriello (VA), Peters (MI), Schauer (MI), Sestak (PA), Shuler (NC), Space (OH), Taylor (MS), Titus (NV).

From NBC’s Luke Russert
By just one “yea,” Democrats barely succeeded Wednesday in voting to allow the House to adjourn until Nov. 15.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was the tie-breaker in the unexpectedly close 210-209 vote, which became a proxy for debate over whether or not the chamber should address the extension of Bush-era tax cuts before the midterm elections.

Thirty-nine Democrats - most of them facing difficult re-election races - broke with their party to vote against adjournment, signaling the party’s division over whether tax cuts on both the middle class and the nation’s top earners should be allowed to expire.

House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, gave a fiery speech on the floor shortly before the vote, saying that adjourning before finishing work on the tax cut issue would be an "irresponsibility on the part of this Congress."

Republican leaders say that all of the cuts should be extended.

President Barack Obama believes that cuts for the most wealthy Americans should be allowed to expire because an extension would cost billions of dollars.

"You can't say you want to balance the budget, deal with our deficit, invest in our kids and have a $700 billion tax cut that effects only 2 percent of the population,” he said at a campaign event in Des Moines, Iowa, on Wednesday.

The House is now expected to adjourn later this evening or tomorrow after completing legislative business.

NBC's Athena Jones and Msnbc.com's Carrie Dann contributed.

Meeting with a group of fisherman in Maine on Sunday, the state's Republican candidate for governor offered a blunt suggestion to the president, per the AP.

"As your governor, you're going to be seeing a lot of me on the front page, saying 'Governor LePage tells Obama to go to hell,'" said GOP candidate Paul LePage.

The comment was captured on video by a Democratic aide. (Watch below.)

More from AP:

LePage tells The Associated Press that he regrets his choice of words, but he stands behind its intent. He says the administration's spending is driving up the national debt and "taking us to a place where my children and my grandchildren will never come back."

The governor's race has attracted national surrogates, with Republican Governors Association chief Gov. Haley Barbour appearing Monday on LePage's behalf, and former President Bill Clinton stumping for Democrat Libby Mitchell over the weekend.

NBC News rates this race as "Leaning Democrat."

Louisiana Sen. David Vitter’s Democratic challenger is reminding voters of the Republican lawmaker’s 2007 prostitution scandal in a new 2-minute mini-documentary ad.
The campaign of Rep. Charlie Melancon, who has trailed the incumbent Republican by double digits in recent polls, is airing an abridged version of a five-minute web video - released earlier this summer by the Louisiana Democratic Party – that includes a reenactment of Vitter’s encounter with a New Orleans prostitute. The 2-minute excerpt samples the most vivid parts of the longer production, including audiotape of a former prostitute detailing her sexual relationship with Vitter. The ad is expected to begin running on cable stations in the state.

NBC News rates this race “Lean Republican.”

New NBC/WSJ poll identifies the change that voters want -- and don’t want… GOP’s generic-ballot lead narrows from nine points (49%-40%) to three (46%-43%)… Still, overall political dynamics point to substantial GOP gains in November… For the first time, a majority (53%) thinks free-trade agreements hurt the U.S… Is the Tea Party just re-branded conservative GOP primary voters?... Bill Clinton’s comeback and Sarah Palin’s and Nancy Pelosi’s fall… VCI update: -39… First on First Read: new Dem TV ad hitting Kasich in Ohio… Wrapping up the Brown-Whitman debate… Previewing PA-15… And new WaPo poll has O’Malley up 11 points.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** What change do voters want? With our new NBC/WSJ poll showing that 59% think the country is on the wrong track, that 65% believe the economy will either get worse or stay the same in the next 12 months, and that a whopping 73% disapprove of Congress, it’s clear that voters still want change. But what kind of change? Well, the poll asked registered voters to indicate whether 13 different outcomes on Election Day were acceptable or unacceptable. The most acceptable outcomes: reducing influence of special interests (70% acceptable), electing political outsiders (69%), Republicans taking over the majority in Congress (52%), Democrats continuing to hold the majority (51%), and repealing the health-care law (51%).

*** What change do voters NOT want? And here are the most unacceptable outcomes: Palin becoming the GOP’s leading spokesperson (55% unacceptable), Pelosi continuing as speaker (51%), the Democrats continuing to hold the majority in Congress (42%), and the Tea Party becoming a major force in Congress (41%). If some of these results seem somewhat contradictory, well, they are. But these two lists do give you a gauge -- however imperfect -- what voters want and what they don’t. Here’s a final set of numbers: 41% said it’s an acceptable outcome if President Obama is dealt a setback in the midterms, while an identical 41% said it would be unacceptable, which is just more evidence that November will be more of a referendum on the economy and Washington than on the president.

*** Natural tightening: The new poll also shows some tightening in the battle for control of Congress. Among likely voters, Republicans hold a three-point edge in the generic ballot (46%-43%), down from the GOP's nine-point lead last month (49%-40%). The narrowing is due, in part, to African Americans and Hispanics increasing their interest level. But young voters -- whom Obama was courting in Madison, WI last night -- are sitting on the sidelines, with just 35% expressing a high interest in voting (compared with 65% for seniors). Despite the tightening, though, the overall political dynamics (pessimism about the economy, dissatisfaction at Congress) remain the same, which foreshadows a tough night for the party in power. “I still think you’re looking at a very difficult year for the Democrats,” said NBC/WSJ co-pollster Bill McInturff (R). Here's something to ponder: According to the 2008 exit polls, over 50% of the electorate was UNDER the age of 50. If our likely voter model is correct (and we are pretty confidence in it), over 50% of the electorate this year will be OVER the age of 50.

*** For the first time, a majority says free trade hurts the U.S.: Here's another fascinating result from our poll: 53% believe that free trade agreements have hurt the U.S -- up from 46% in '07 and 30% in '99. And get this: The opposition is shared by 65% of union households and 61% of Tea Party supporters. The survey also finds that outsourcing will be a potent Dem attack this fall. A whopping 68% say they strongly agree with the statement that the U.S. economy is struggling because companies are outsourcing their work and manufacturing to other countries. That’s a higher percentage than those strongly agreeing that corporations are too focused on profits and not on hiring (53%), that health-care costs are too high (46%), that the country’s education system is producing fewer skilled and educated workers (40%), and that the nation has lost its technological edge in manufacturing (36%). So get ready for the Dem TV ads blasting free trade and outsourcing… By the way, for those predicting that free trade agreements will be the easiest bipartisan agreements between a Republican Congress and Obama, think again: There's a bipartisan coalition forming on trade, but it's against it.

*** Making sense of the Tea Party: The poll also gives us a better idea of the Tea Party, with 27% saying they support the movement. These folks, it turns out, are more conservative and bigger watchers of FOX News than your typical Republican. Per McInturff, Tea Party members are simply re-branded conservative GOP primary voters -- not something completely new. “These are conservative Republicans who watch FOX, and who are very ticked off,” he said.

*** Bubba's comeback... : Who is the most popular political figure in our poll? It’s none other than Bill Clinton, who just two years ago was being blamed (in part) for his wife losing the Democratic presidential nomination. His fav/unfav is 55%-23%, which is higher than Obama’s (47%-41%), Huckabee’s (26%-25%), Boehner’s (14%-17%), McConnell’s (12%-18%), Romney’s (21%-30%), Gingrich’s (24%-35%), Reid’s (15%-32%), Palin’s (30%-48%), and Pelosi’s (22%-50%). One of the main reasons for Clinton’s positive score is that he no longer remains a GOP target, despite everything the party did and said during the 90s. In the survey, 47% of Republicans view the ex-president negatively, compared with 78% (!!!) who view Obama negatively.

*** … And Palin's and Pelosi's fall: Speaking of Palin and Pelosi, no two political figures are more unpopular -- especially when you add the 55% who say it’s unacceptable that Palin become the GOP’s leading spokesperson, and the 51% who say it’s unacceptable that Pelosi continue as House speaker. The Pelosi numbers are definitely worth watching. Has she become the face of the Washington voters do NOT like? The GOP has spent months using her as a punching bag in TV ads. Notice how it's MORE unacceptable to voters for Pelosi to remain as speaker than for Democrats to keep Congress. Then again, ditto with Boehner and the Republican majority. Still, the negatives for Pelosi are much higher than for Boehner.

*** VCI update: With our new NBC/WSJ poll, the current VCI for the month of September is now -39.

*** First on First Read -- new Dem TV ad in Ohio: Building a Stronger Ohio, a Democratic independent expenditure group led by the Democratic Governors Association, is up with a new TV ad in the Buckeye State hitting GOP gubernatorial nominee John Kasich for his work for Lehman Brothers. “Why does it matter that John Kasich was a managing director at Lehman Brothers?” the ad states. “Because when he was a congressman, he used his influence to help Wall Street. Then Kasich left Congress, and Wall Street helped him get rich.”

*** Wrapping up the Brown-vs.-Whitman debate: Here’s the Los Angeles Times’ take on last night’s debate: “In a blustery and vigorous first debate, gubernatorial candidates Meg Whitman and Jerry Brown dueled Tuesday over their differing solutions to California's dire problems, with Whitman slighting Brown as a tool of labor unions and Brown excoriating her as a billionaire running for office to benefit the rich... After Democrat Brown said he would bring all parties together, Republican Whitman seized on his vow. 'Mr. Brown talked about bringing people together,' she said. 'It will be a meeting of all the special interests and the unions who are there to collect their IOUs from the campaign that they have funded.' Brown, the attorney general, responded with a jab at Whitman's proposed eradication of the capital gains tax, a move he said was 'targeted to billionaires like Ms. Whitman and millionaires.'"

*** 75 House races to watch: PA-15: The GOP nominee is three-term incumbent Charlie Dent, while his Dem challenger is Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan. In 2008, Obama won this district – which represents Allentown – with 56%, and Kerry won it with 50% in ’04. As of June 30, Dent had more than $1 million in the bank, and Callahan had nearly $1 million. Dent voted against the stimulus, cap-and-trade, and health care. Cook rates the race as Lean Republican, while Rothenberg has it Republican Favored.

*** More midterm news: In California, Barbara Boxer and Carly Fiorina face off in a radio debate… In Maryland, a new Washington Post poll shows Martin O’Malley (D) leading Bob Ehrlich among likely voters, 52%-41%... And in Nevada, comedian Dennis Miller is headlining a fundraiser for Sharron Angle on Saturday.
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 34 days

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The New York Times: "Facing the potential for historic losses in midterm elections, President Obama sought tonight to light a fire under his party’s supporters at a rally in front of thousands of college students in Madison, Wisconsin. Mr. Obama arrived on stage for the campaign rally in Madison, Wis.The high-octane campaign event was designed to recapture to energy and
enthusiasm that created a new turnout model for Mr. Obama’s election in 2008, bringing huge numbers of new voters to the polls."

It was estimated that 26,000 attended the rally.

“Clearly frustrated by Republicans’ energy — and his own party’s lack of enthusiasm — President Obama scolded fellow Democrats even as he rallied them yesterday in an effort to save the party from big GOP gains in the crucial midterm elections,” the Boston Globe writes.

Obama’s day: The AP says Obama’s morning event “at the Des Moines home of Jeff and Sandy Clubb, will include about 70 of their neighbors. Obama's victory in the January 2008 Iowa caucus put him on the path to the Democratic presidential nomination.”

“An appeals court ruled yesterday that government funding of embryonic stem cell research can continue for now,” the AP writes. “The US Court of Appeals in Washington granted the Obama administration’s request to allow the funding from the National Institutes of Health while it appeals a judge’s order blocking the research.”