From NBC's Mark Murray
Since winning the GOP nomination last month, California gubernatorial nominee Meg Whitman (R) has been saturating the airwaves with Spanish-language TV ads, all in an effort to win over Latino voters. And there's evidence she's making progress on this front.

Now an SEIU-backed independent expenditure is airing a TV ad -- at a substantial buy -- to reminder Latino voters that Whitman's campaign chairman is former GOP. Gov. Pete Wilson, who championed the controversial Prop. 187.

“The research that’s been done in California shows that Meg Whitman is really hurt with Latino voters when they are informed" of Wilson's ties to Whitman's campaign, a union official emails First Read.

Here's the script of the Spanish-language ad (translated to English):

Pete Wilson is in charge of her campaign…and she won the Republican primary attacking us.
She is a billionaire who gives tax breaks to corporations… …while cutting health care for working people.
And she wants to prevent all of our children from having the same opportunity to attend university.
Whitman says one thing in Spanish --- and the opposite when she speaks in English.
The real Whitman has no shame. She’s two faced.

*** UDPATE *** The Whitman campaign responds: "Not only are these ads false, Jerry Brown is literally outsourcing his campaign's dirty work to the entrenched special interest groups that prop up his candidacy. Now how is that not the actual definition of 'two faced'?"

The Whitman campaign also has this new Spanish-language radio ad.

From NBC's John Yang
Lawyers, including a couple of former prosecutors, say the first two notes from the Rod Blagojevich jury could be sign that deliberations may take a while.

Yesterday, the jury asked for a transcript of the prosecution's detailed, step-by-step closing argument. Today, they asked for transcripts of the testimony of all 27 witnesses presented by the prosecution (Blago's defense did not present any witnesses).

Judge Zagel denied both requests. But on the first note, he speculated that the jury was having trouble walking through the 24 sometimes overlapping charges against Blagojevich. If the jury asked again, he said he might give the jury transcripts of all the closing arguments.

On the witness transcripts, he told the jury he'd consider giving them transcripts of individual witnesses on a case-by-case basis.

A new Mason-Dixon showing Sharron Angle only one point behind Sen. Harry Reid poll garners reactions from both sides of the blogosphere, with conservatives celebrating what they see as her staying power and liberals pushing the narrative that she is too radical for the Senate. Two other issues making waves today both involve Democratic New York Congressmen: a rant on the House floor and a list leaked by a congressman locked in a re-election fight.

"I told you Sharron Angle is okay," Red State's Erick Erickson titled his post, noting that Reid led Angle 44% to 37% in the previous Mason-Dixon poll. "Reid is losing ground and Angle is making up ground... Again, Reid spent ELEVEN MILLION DOLLARS to define and attack Sharron Angle. After all that money, Angle is a point or two behind with Reid unable to make up the ground. Angle will be fine," he repeated.

Though optimistic, NRO's Jim Geraghty is slightly more cautious about the Mason-Dixon results: "So in Mason-Dixon's sense of the race, Reid still can't break 44 percent and has slid a bit; Angle has stopped the bleeding and is actually getting back some of those supporters who were wavering. (Angle's biggest lead in a Mason-Dixon poll was 5 percentage points, back in January.)

More: "I'd like to see some other polls show the same trend before I declare disaster averted. And Angle's still in a race where she has to demonstrate she's a better option than Reid, not merely an alternative; I'm wary of Nevada's "none of the above" being listed on the ballot. But this has got to be the most reassuring trailing-by-1poll of this cycle."

Generally speaking, liberal blogs mostly refrained from talking about today's Mason-Dixon poll. AMERICAblog's John Aravosis acknowledged only Angle's 11-point loss in Rasmussen robopolls, not the close poll numbers in the Mason-Dixon survey. Posting a list from the Huffington Post on some of Angle's more extreme statements, Aravosis wrote, "Yeah, armed insurrection against the government was my personal fav."

Liberal blogs were more focused on New York Rep. Anthony Weiner's tirade yesterday evening after House Republicans resolved to vote against a bill that would have provided aid to 9/11 survivors. The 9/11 Health and Compensation Act was brought to a vote under suspension of the rules, a provision invoked for the passage of noncontroversial bills which also allows House leadership to block amendments.

DailyKos' Joan McCarter writes that Republican opposition to the bill was purely political: "Prevented the opportunity to make political hay because of this procedural move, the Republicans (and a few Blue Dogs) used that as their excuse to vote against the bill. Which brought this, from Rep. Anthonly Weiner: 'If you believe this is a bad idea, to provide health care, then vote no—but don't give me the cowardly view that 'if only it was a different procedure.

"Those great patriotic Republicans who have been more than happy to use 9/11 victims and heroes as political props for years but when it comes time to do something for them, obstruction is more important," McCarter.

AMERICAblog simply posts the video with the headline: "Rep. Weiner Goes Off On Republicans Over Blocking 9/11 Health Compensation Act."

Conservative blogger Daniel Foster at NRO offered his take on the Weiner outburst: "How many times have you found yourself thinking: "You know, I used to disagree with Rep. Anthony Weiner (D., N.Y.) on policy issue X, but then he took to the floor of the House, screamed at the top of his lungs, and shouted me down as a coward, and I've since come around to his position."

The scandal du jour for the conservative blogosphere was the news that Rep. Michael McMahon (D), up for re-election in New York's 13th district (scandalized former Rep. Vito Fossella's district), provided the New York Observer with a list of Jewish donors to his Republican challenger Michael Grimm's campaign, with a statement from McMahon's spokeswoman Jennifer Nelson that "There is a lot of Jewish money, a lot of money from people in Florida and Manhattan, retirees."

The news has raised Grimm's profile among conservative bloggers, along with a Facebook endorsement from Sarah Palin on Wednesday.

Red State's Moe Lane posted a phone interview with Grimm on the blog's website. Of the McMahon leak, Grimm said, "I was speechless at first, because the idea that something like this could happen in 2010 on this level as U.S. congressman? It was beyond disturbing. It is nothing less than outrageous. Especially for someone like me. I'm a combat veteran... these are the things exactly that I fought for, for the liberty and freedoms that I think at this point in our lives and as Americans, we would be much further down the road.

"I don't think of my donors based on their ethnicity or their religion," he added. "They're American patriots."

Wrote NRO's Jim Geraghty, "Let's assume, for the moment, that McMahon's campaign is not a hotbed of anti-semitism, a benefit of the doubt that he has not yet earned. At best, this suggests his operation is riven with folks who have the worst of an Al Davis "just win, baby" mentality; it's not that they hate Jews, mind you, but they thought this would make good way to somehow hurt his opponent and appeal to the anti-semitism of others. It's not that he sought to foster suspicion and hatred of Jews, mind you, merely that he sought to profit from it politically."

Hot Air's Allahpundit called the news "Wonderful" in his headline, and wrote, "When I first glanced at the article, I thought maybe they were trying to make the point, however awkwardly, that Grimm is failing to win over local Jewish voters based on the fact that comparatively few have donated to him. Nope: No way to square that with the boldfaced part from Nelson."

VIDEO: A look at the Week Ahead in politics. Four more primaries, including Joe the Plumber weighing in Missouri - and, in Tennessee, talk of secession, God being the "center of the universe," and whether Islam is a religion or a cult in Tennessee. Plus, it's President Obama's 49th birthday, a vote for Elena Kagan, and WikiLeaks document dumps on First Read.

CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL VIDEO.

From NBC's Pete Williams
Arizona has now asked the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals for a fast-track review of its request to put a hold on this week's order by Judge Susan Bolton. Her ruling blocked the state from enforcing the most controversial parts of its new immigration law.

The first thing the appeals court will do is set a schedule for submitting written legal briefs and hearing oral argument. Arizona wants all that done by the week of Sept. 13. The Justice Department suggests a somewhat slower process with oral argument in mid-October. Either way would move this along at a faster pace than a normal case would proceed.

Quick action is needed, the state says, because Judge Bolton's order has blocked a law the legislature deemed "critical to address serious criminal, environmental and economic problems Arizona has been suffering as a consequence of illegal immigration and the lack of effective enforcement by the federal government." The Justice Department, however, argues that the only effect of the judge's order "is to preserve a status quo that has existed for a long period of time."

The appeal will be assigned to a panel made up of three judges, the usual first stop in a federal appellate court. There's no time limit for a ruling.

Whichever side loses then has a choice; It can either ask the full 9th Circuit Appeals Court to hear the case, or it can go directly to the Supreme Court. There are strategic reasons for getting the full court to weigh in first, but that will depend on what the panel says.

Arizona could have tried to do two things at this stage which it did not: It could have sought emergency review, which would have speeded things up even more, and it could have asked the appeals court for an immediate stay of Judge Bolton's ruling. Legal experts doubted the state would have succeeded with either request, and the state's lawyers apparently thought the same.

From NBC's Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, Ali Weinberg, and Sarah Blackwill
If it’s Friday, it’s time another First Read Top 10 list -- this time, we take yet another look at what we consider our favorite TV ads this cycle.
10. Dear God: In this ad, it’s unclear whether Zack Wamp (R) is running for Tennessee governor or preacher. (“I believe God is the center of the universe. He made us to serve him and to serve others.”) But it comes after primary opponent Ron Ramsey referred to Islam a “cult.”
9. Pamela, get your gun: This ad, which shows Arizona congressional candidate Pamela Gorman taking aim at actual targets -- instead of her opponents -- makes our list again.
8. Scott hammers McCollum: This sort of ad is one of the big reasons why Rick Scott now leads Bill McCollum in Florida’s GOP gubernatorial primary.
7. The Man with the Dragon Tattoo: Norm Coleman’s American Action Network is running some provocative ads. This one targets Charlie Crist -- with the help of a tattoo artist.
6. One of these days these shoes are goin’ walk all over you: And here’s the American Action Network’s ad against Washington Sen. Patty Murray, which uses her iconic tennis shoes against her.
5. Meek fires at Greene… : Down in the polls to Jeff Greene in Florida’s Democratic Senate race, Kendrick Meek highlights one Greene’s weaknesses: He made his money off subprime loans.
4. … and Greene fires back: Here’s Greene’s response: Meek is “corrupt” and “crooked.”
3. Is he “man enough”? In this ad, Colorado Senate candidate Jane Norton questions primary opponent Ken Buck's manhood (“You think Ken would be man enough to do it himself”). Buck later said this in response to a question why a voter should vote for Buck: “Because I do not wear high heels.”
2. Being Blunt about President Obama: With Obama’s approval rating in the 30s in the onetime battleground state of Missouri, Senate candidate Roy Blunt (R) has taken the lead in his race against Robin Carnahan (D) by tying Carnahan to Obama, like in this ad.
1. Demon sheep: The one and the only…

Why Democrats might be closing the gap: because their voters are coming home… Why they're still in trouble: because they're not in good shape with seniors and economically stressed blue-collar voters… Obama highlights GM's turnaround with speech in Michigan at 1:40 pm ET… Why over-pandering to the Tea Party might not be working for Republican candidates in Michigan, Kansas, and Tennessee… Previewing IL-11… And Harry Reid (at 43%) and Sharron Angle (at 42%) are neck-and-neck in a new Mason-Dixon poll.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Are Democrats closing the gap? Largely lost in all the recent focus on the BP spill, Shirley Sherrod, the Arizona immigration law, Charlie Rangel, and the Wikileaks leak is this bit of news: Democrats -- perhaps ever so slightly -- are beginning to close the midterm gap. For two-straight weeks now, they've had a lead in Gallup's weekly generic ballot test. In some key Senate races (Nevada, Kentucky, and Illinois), they like their poll position, at least compared with what it was a few weeks ago. Charlie Crist is running better in Florida than many expected after his indie switch. Colorado has turned into an absolute nightmare for Republicans. And House Democrats are feeling a bit better about their prospects.

*** Or is it just a blip? But that's one way to look at things. Here's the other way: Remember our adage -- live by the Gallup tracking poll, die by the Gallup tracking poll. ("For now, people will have to just sit tight," Charlie Cook writes today, "wait for the next week's Gallup release, and watch how other reputable pollsters weight in.") What's more, Republicans feel like they're in better shape in the Senate contests in Washington state, Wisconsin, and even California than they were two months ago (though Dems think things have improved in California). And as far as the House goes, many of the competitive contests are taking place in white/rural districts, which benefits the Republicans. "All in all, the wind continues to be at our back as we move forward towards November," National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brian Walsh tells First Read.

*** Coming home: But if things are getting better for Democrats -- even at the margins -- it's probably because of this reason: Just a little over three months until Election Day, Democratic voters and Dem-leaning indies are beginning to "come home." (Did all the focus on Robert Gibbs' the-House-is-in-play comment help things here?) As we mentioned in our New York Times op-ed back in May, the political waves of '94 and '06 were caused, in part, by the incumbent party's demoralized base. And if Democratic voters get engaged, as did they in that PA-12 special election, that is how they hold their majorities, or at least not get creamed. But make no mistake: Democrats aren't suddenly in better political shape and still face the real possibility of losing their majorities in one or both houses of Congress. And why they're in peril is because of two KEY swing voting groups: seniors and economically stressed blue-collar voters. And that's your battle come November.

*** The GM turnaround: We said it at the time: As the GM bailout goes, so goes the Obama presidency. It was the bailout everyone in America could understand, and it wasn't popular. In our June 2009 NBC/WSJ poll, the American automaker had an awful 18%-47% fav/unfav. A year later, however, the Obama administration believes it has a good story to tell. And today, the president is going to tell that story. Later this morning, he heads to Michigan, where he will tour a Chrysler and then a GM plant. After that, he'll make remarks about the auto industry at 1:40 pm ET. There are real signs that the American auto industry has a pulse. What's helped besides the government's intervention? Well, the Toyota debacle for one thing. But GM has also embarked on quite the image campaign. And in our May 2010 NBC/WSJ poll, guess what GM's fav/unfav was? 37%-27% Quite the turnaround.

*** Over-pandering to the Tea Party might not be working in GOP primaries: The Tea Party flexed its muscle with the victories by Rand Paul and Sharron Angle, as well as chasing out Charlie Crist from the GOP. But check out what might not be working: over-pandering to the Tea Party in GOP primaries. Whether it was the emphatic rejection of those Tea Party cliché candidates in Alabama (remember that Rick "Gather your armies" Barber and that Dale Peterson character didn't win their primaries), or what's playing out in key GOP races in Kansas, Tennessee, and Michigan, we're seeing what appears to be the rise of more mainstream conservative messengers. So while the Democrats are trying desperately to paint the entire GOP with Tea Party, and while some mainstream Republicans are trying to mainstream Tea Partiers, Republican primary voters aren't necessarily responding to the stereotype.

*** 75 House races to watch: IL-11: The Democratic nominee is freshman incumbent Debbie Halvorson, who won TK% of the vote in 2008 (when Illinois's Barack Obama was at the top of the ticket). The Republican nominee is Adam Kinzinger, a retired Air Force captain/decorated Iraq veteran. Halverson voted for the stimulus, cap-and-trade, and health care. Obama won 53% in this district in '08, but Bush won 54% here in '04. Both Cook and Rothenberg rate this seat as Lean Democrat. This is a district that tests the Obama surge vote factor.

*** More midterm news: In Alaska, GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski has a comfortable lead in her primary race, per a new poll… In Nevada, a new Mason-Dixon poll shows Harry Reid and Sharron Angle neck-and-neck, with Reid at 43% and Angle at 42%... And in Washington, Jim DeMint is backing Senate candidate Dino Rossi (R).

Countdown to KS and MO primaries: 4 days
Countdown to CO, CT, and MN primaries: 11 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 95 days

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“Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates on Thursday denounced the disclosure this week of 75,000 classified documents about the Afghanistan war by the Web site WikiLeaks, asserting that the security breach had endangered lives and damaged the ability of others to trust the United States government to protect their secrets,” the New York Times says. “Speaking to reporters at the Pentagon, Mr. Gates portrayed the documents as ‘a mountain of raw data and individual impressions, most several years old’ that offered little insight into current policies and events. Still, he said, the disclosures — which include some identifying information about Afghans who have helped the United States — have ‘potentially dramatic and grievously harmful consequences.’”

The New York Daily News on Obama’s appearance on “The View”: “For 47 minutes, he took a two-year time trip, radiating the relaxed charm and reassuring ease that swept him into the White House just 21 months ago. He was the guy who was going to be different then, the man who was going to change the tone of America's public and political dialogue from sharp and nasty to respectful and even civil. Yesterday, around the warm hearth of ‘The View,’ he got to be that guy again.”

Howie Kurtz’s take on the appearance: “Anyone who scoffed at the president's decision to hang with Whoopi and the gang was out to lunch. That includes you, Rosie. The appearance was good for him, good for ‘The View’ and, incidentally, good for the audience.”

The Times on Obama’s education speech yesterday: “Saying that reforming education is perhaps ‘the economic issue of our time,’ President Obama went before a major civil rights organization on Thursday to defend his main education program against criticisms from some minority and teachers groups.”

Tim Pawlenty is up with his first biographical spot (seriously), focusing on hockey, his St. Paul youth, and his governing philosophy. He makes the case for being able to relate to the middle class. He's often talked about Republicans needing to be more Sam's Club than Country Club. He also talks of his fiscal policy. He even takes up some Tea Party themes -- "freedom," the "Constitution," etc. (Hat tip: Ben Smith)

From NBC's Lea Sutton
Progressive leaders from a coalition of 60 organizations today announced the launch of "Strengthen Social Security," a campaign to fight any proposed cuts to Social Security that President Obama's debt commission might recommend.

In a press conference, leaders from groups including organized labor, the National Education Association, the National Organization for Women, the NAACP, and the Consortium for Citizens with Disabilities, vowed to block benefit changes in Social Security -- particularly raising the retirement age. They said that Social Security is a successful and stable program paid for by the people it supports, and they threatened that members of Congress who support cutting benefits will pay the price in upcoming elections.

Justin Ruben of MoveOn.org said his message for "the Republicans and some Democrats who want to cut taxes for the rich and then balance the budget on the backs of our parents and grandparents" is that "our members will be watching elected officials and those running for office very closely this summer and fall."

Gerald McEntee, President of American Federation of State County and Municipal Employees, echoed other speakers, saying that proposed changes would be a major blow to women, minority groups, and Americans whose jobs require physical labor. "Can you just imagine looking out this window: All the 70-year-old brick layers, trash collectors, fire fighters, nurses out there? 70 years old. What kind of society do we want?" McEntee said Social Security should not be "the scapegoat for the deficit," and that "some may be surprised to learn that Social Security currently has a 2.6 trillion dollar surplus."

AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka said his father spent 44 years working in a coal mine and retired as soon as he was eligible for Social Security. Trumka said that those born after 1960 are "already hit with a 13 percent benefit cut" because they have to be 67 to receive benefits instead of 65. He called increasing the age requirement for Social Security benefits "disastrous."

The campaign plans to hold hundreds of community events around the country starting in August to commemorate the 75th anniversary of Social Security.

A House investigative subcommittee filed 13 counts with the House Ethics Committee against Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY) for violating House rules, including:

1) improper solicitations for donations
2) errors and omissions on financial disclosure forms
3) improper use of rent subsidized apartments for a campaign
4) failure to report and pay taxes on rental income from a vacation home in the Dominican Republic

Per NBC's Shawna Thomas, here is the STATEMENT OF ALLEGED VIOLATIONS and the documents the investigative committee sent to the adjudicatory committee.

Rep. Jo Bonner (R-AL) of the investigative committee said Rangel has known of the investigation and that it was almost complete at the end of 2008. But delays in requests for information and other factors led to the subcommittee just wrapping up its work in the past few days.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-TX) of the Ethics Committee, said the charges stem from accusations that Rangel:

- Solicited foundations to fund a center bearing his name at City College of New York; that he used staff to do it as well as meeting personally with lobbyists to get it built.
- Used a rent stabilized/subsidized apartment for a campaign office (Lenox Terrace)
- On Financial disclosures and on tax forms, he failed to report rental income on a villa in the Dominican Republic over a period of years. For a decade, he failed to report $600,000 on financial disclosure statements for these periods.

"If proven, he would have violated several House rules and federal statutes," McCall said. He added, "We will handle this matter with the utmost professionalism and non-partisanship that it deserves."

Bonner called him a "powerful" and "well-liked member," lauded his life story, but said this has nothing to do with that life story. If true, Bonner said Rangel "brought discredit to this body" at a time when people have such "little faith" that members of Congress can do their jobs well.

"It's truly a sad day," Bonner said.

From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell and Luke Russert
House Ethics Chair Zoe Lofgren (D) just told the folks in the hearing room that the members are headed to the floor for votes and the hearing on the ethics allegations concerning Rep. Charlie Rangel (D) will be delayed.

Two members say the adjudicatory hearing is going forward after a floor vote.

Sources add, however, that no settlement to resolve the allegations is ready at this moment.

From NBC's Ali Weinberg
President Obama's remarks at the 100th Anniversary of the Urban League today focused mainly on improving education for minority students through structural change, but he also addressed the Shirley Sherrod controversy of the past two weeks, a series of events that catapulted questions of race and media bias into the national spotlight.

Despite the efforts of groups like the Urban League to help African-American communities, Obama said, "We were reminded this past week that we've still got work to do when it comes to promoting the values of fairness and equality and mutual understanding that must bind us together as a nation."

He did not blame particular people or parties for worsening the controversy, in which a conservative activist posted out-of-context excerpts from a speech Sherrod, a former USDA employee, gave before a local NAACP chapter to make it sound like she practiced racial discrimination, thus leading the USDA to fire her.

Obama did, however, indirectly condemn the actions of the media, as well as the federal government, calling the affair a "bogus controversy based on selective and deceiving excerpts of a speech," and adding that "many are to blame for the reaction and overreaction that followed these comments including my own administration."

While the president has repeatedly shied away from becoming the face of a national discussion about race, he did today express the need for such conversations to take place.

"We should all make more of an effort to discuss with one another in a truthful and mature and responsible way the divides that still exist" between races, Obama said, adding that such discourse should take place "not on cable TV, not just through a bunch of academic symposia and fancy commissions or panels, not through political posturing, but around kitchen tables and water coolers and church basements and in our schools and with our kids all across the country.

"If we can have that conversation in our lives then we can take an opportunity to learn from our imperfections and our mistakes to grow as individuals and as a country," Obama added.

As we pointed out earlier this week, the Obama White House keeps talking about the economy and health care -- because even if they're unpopular in the short run, they're hoping attitudes change in the long run.

And that seems to be the case with the health-care law.

A new Kaiser Family Foundation poll, the Washington Post reports, shows that 50% have a favorable view of the law, versus 35% who hold a negative view.

The approval level was the highest for the legislation since it was enacted in March, after a divisive year-long debate. In April, the poll found 46 percent in favor and 40 percent opposed.

Though the legislative battle is over, the political tug-of-war continues. Democrats and Republicans have been fighting to shape public opinion on the issue in hopes of influencing the fall elections.

More controversy, challenges, and distractions for the White House… The judicial ruling on Arizona's immigration law was a legal -- but not political -- victory for Team Obama… The ethics hearing on Charlie Rangel convenes at 1:00 pm ET… Newt to blast Obama in speech on national security… And progressives will warn the White House and Democrats over any benefit cuts to Social Security… Obama talks education and defends "Race to the Top" in speech at 10:05 am… What happens when tax cuts become politically toxic? Government turns to taxes on legalized gambling… Rick Scott and Jeff Greene lead in Florida… Profiling Mike Pence's inner circle… And previewing IL-10.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** More controversy, challenges, and distractions: Oil is no longer leaking into the Gulf, the Shirley Sherrod story is over, and Robert Gibbs' statement about the House playing field now seems like old news. But news events, challenges, and distractions continue to confront the White House in what has been the spring/summer of its discontent. Let's start with the news yesterday that a judge blocked the most controversial portions of Arizona's immigration law. While it was a legal victory for the Obama administration, it wasn't necessarily a political one (that's probably why we didn't see President Obama talk about it yesterday). Our NBC/MSNBC/Telemundo poll back in May showed that 61% of Americans supported Arizona's immigration law, while 36% opposed it. That said, because there's no longer a sense of urgency, the legal process will likely take its time, and that could mean that immigration could go away as a political issue this November.

*** The Rangel ethics hearing: Another unwanted news event for the White House and Democrats is today's 1:00 pm ET hearing into the ethics allegations involved Rep. Charlie Rangel (D). "Barring a last-minute settlement agreement over allegations that … Rangel violated House rules, a special ethics panel will meet Thursday to set the stage for a rare ethics trial," Roll Call writes. "According to sources knowledgeable of the ethics process, the public meeting will serve as an organizational session, including statements from the adjudicatory panel's leadership, chairwoman Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), who is also ethics chairwoman, ranking member Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), ethics ranking member Jo Bonner (R-Ala.) and Rep. Gene Green (D-Texas)… The panel will also read a 'statement of alleged violations' detailing the accusations against Rangel." If a settlement isn't reached with Rangel, a trial would take place in September.

*** Newt pinch-hitting for Cheney; progressives threaten Dems over Social Security: Here's maybe another distraction for the White House today -- Newt Gingrich's 2:00 pm speech blasting the Obama. As CNN recently reported, Newt's speech "will reprimand the Obama administration's 'willful blindness' to the threat of extremist Islam." And yet another distraction: At 10:00 am ET at the National Press Club in DC, progressive leaders -- like AFL-CIO president Richard Trumka, AFSCME chief Gerald McEntee, and MoveOn's Justin Ruben -- hold a press conference to send a warning to Democrats. Their message: They'll hold Democrats accountable for voting for any proposed benefit cuts to Social Security (including raising the retirement age) coming out of Obama's deficit/debt reduction commission.

*** Obama defends 'Race to the Top': At 10:05 am ET, President Obama is delivering what the White House is billing as a major speech on education at the National Urban League's convention. According to excerpts, he will defend his administration's "Race to the Top" initiative. "I want teachers to have higher salaries. I want them to have more support. I want them to be trained like the professionals they are," Obama is expected to say. "All I'm asking in return -- as a president, and as a parent -- is a measure of accountability. Surely we can agree that even as we applaud teachers for their hard work, we need to make sure they're delivering results in the classroom. If they're not, let's work with them to help them be more effective. And if that fails, let's find the right teacher for that classroom." Obama's appearance on "The View" also airs today.

*** What happens when tax increases become politically toxic: This New York Times story grabbed our attention: "With pressure mounting on the federal government to find new revenues, Congress is considering legalizing, and taxing, an activity it banned just four years ago: Internet gambling." We've already mentioned that some states are looking at legalizing sports gambling as a way to collect more revenues. And what's probably next? Legalized marijuana. This is all the unintended consequence of making all tax increases politically toxic.

*** Meg Whitman and immigration: If the immigration issue goes away in November, as we speculated above, that could also end up helping Meg Whitman out in California. Just think if the most controversial aspects of the law had gone into effect today, that might have created a political headache for the California Republican. While she opposes the Arizona law, she spoke out against "amnesty" during his primary against Steve Poizner, and Pete Wilson -- champion of Prop. 187 -- serves as her campaign chairman. And those issues probably would have been resurrected if the law had gone into effect in neighboring Arizona. Due to California's geographic closeness, the media in California would be all over this story, covering how the law is implemented.

*** Scott, Greene lead in Florida: The latest Quinnipiac poll finds that the two wealthy outsiders running for governor and the Senate in Florida -- Rick Scott (R) and Jeff Greene (D), respectively -- have double-digit leads with less than a month before the state's Aug. 24 primary. In Florida's GOP gubernatorial primary, Scott has an 11-point lead over onetime front-runner Bill McCollum, 43-32%. And in the Democratic Senate primary, Greene has jumped out to a 10-point advantage in the poll, 33%-23%. According to the conventional wisdom, these results are very good news for Democrats. Why? Because, despite their wealth, both Scott and Greene are flawed candidates, which ostensibly would help Alex Sink (D) in the governors race and Charlie Crist (I) in the Senate contest.

*** 2012 Thursday: In our weekly series looking at the inner circles of the possible 2012 candidates, we turn our attention today to Indiana Rep. Mike Pence, the third-ranking House GOP leader. The list includes: senior adviser Bill Smith, his longtime chief of staff to his personal office who ran his first campaign; Marc Short, chief of staff to the House GOP conference; GOP pollster Kellyanne Conway; Bill Neale, an Indianapolis lawyer who serves as Pence's campaign treasurer; and Kyle Robertson, who's in charge of national fundraising. Also advising: former Sen. Phil Gramm, GOP lawyer Cleta Mitchell, strategist Rex Elsass of the Strategy Group for Media, former Rep. David McIntosh, former Attorney General Ed Meese, Tony Perkins of the Family Research Council; and spokesman Matt Lloyd.

*** Testing the waters and history: Though no congressman has been elected president since James Garfield in 1880 -- 130 years ago -- Pence shows signs testing the waters and trying his luck. He has already made multiple trips to Iowa, raised/transferred $1 million to the NRCC (his Win Back America PAC has donated more than $110,000 to candidates/committees), has more than $700,000 cash on hand for his 2010 reelection bid (with no serious challenger), and is working with conservative groups in building a direct mail file. Pence will spend most of August in Indiana, but then will travel the country in September and October. Pence is someone very comfortable in front of a camera; in fact, he could be a Huckabee-like figure -- someone who will not say no to a TV interview and use it as a shot to catapult in a place like Iowa. But is there room for two folks from Indiana, if Mitch Daniels decides to run?

*** 75 House races to watch: IL-10: This is the seat being vacated by GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, who is running for Senate. The Democratic nominee is business consultant Dan Seals (who was the party's unsuccessful nominee in '06 and '08). The Republican nominee is pest-control businessman Robert Dold. Obama won 61% of this district in '08, and Kerry won 53% in '04. Both Cook and Rothenberg rate the contest as a toss-up.

*** More midterm news: In California, a new PPIC poll has Jerry Brown at 37% and Meg Whitman at 34% in the governors race, and Barbara Boxer at 39% and Carly Fiorina at 34%... In Kentucky, the Louisville Courier-Journal writes that coal company executives "are considering whether to launch an industry-funded campaign organization aimed at defeating Kentucky Democrats Jack Conway and Ben Chandler and others deemed to be 'anti-coal'"… And in New Hampshire, a new WMUR/Granite State Poll finds that Kelly Ayotte holds an 8-point lead over Paul Hodes, "but that's a slide from the 15-point edge she held in April," WMUR writes.

Countdown to KS and MO primaries: 5 days
Countdown to CO, CT, and MN primaries: 12 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 96 days

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“A federal judge on Wednesday blocked the most contested provisions of Arizona's new immigration law one day before they were to take effect, ratcheting up the legal and political debate over the increasingly divisive issue,” the Washington Post reports. “U.S. District Judge Susan R. Bolton's ruling handed the Obama administration a key initial victory in its lawsuit against Arizona and Gov. Jan Brewer (R). It also set up a legal struggle that is likely to play out over several years and across numerous states, with Brewer vowing to take the case to the U.S. Supreme Court and legal experts saying the high court is likely to hear it.”

The New York Times: “Judge Bolton, appointed to the bench by President Bill Clinton, did allow some, less debated provisions of the law to go into effect, including one that bans cities from refusing to cooperate with federal immigration agents. But she largely sided with arguments in a lawsuit by the Obama administration that the law, rather than closely hewing to existing federal statutes, as its supporters have claimed, interferes with longstanding federal authority over immigration and could lead to harassment of citizens and legal immigrants.”

Here’s how the Arizona Republic played the news: “Reactions Wednesday were predictably polarized. From Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox, speaking to a gathering of Hispanic activists at her Phoenix restaurant: ‘We hope this decision will be a wake-up call across America that there is only one immigration law.’ From Republican state Sen. Russell Pearce, who sponsored the legislation and predicted that the U.S. Supreme Court eventually will uphold the entire law: ‘People don't understand, there was no ruling gutting the bill. It was a temporary roadblock in certain portions. We'll win those on appeal… I hoped for this battle.’”

Note that when NBC's Ann Curry asked Vice President Biden about the economy on the Today show and whether the administration is doing enough on the economy, he responded by saying, it is never doing enough until it restores the eight million jobs lost in the "Bush recession."

On tap for today: "President Barack Obama is defending his administration's education policies, responding to criticism that so far they have not substantially helped minority students," the AP writes, adding, "Obama was to speak Thursday at the centennial convention of the National Urban League, one of eight civil rights organizations that released a report this week calling the president's $4.35 billion education initiative an ineffective approach for failing schools."

More from the AP: "President Barack Obama's nominee to be chief of U.S. intelligence, James R. Clapper, is expected to be approved by the Senate Intelligence Committee when the panel meets Thursday.”

A preview of Obama’s appearance in “The View”: "President Obama charmed the ladies on 'The View' on Wednesday and confidently showed off his command of the big challenges facing the nation today. But the name Snooki didn't ring a bell," the New York Daily News writes. Yet Obama poked fun at the overblown stereotypes "Snooki" and "The Situation" in a Radio and Television Correspondents Association speech. (We guess someone else wrote the jokes.)

Roll Call: “Barring a last-minute settlement agreement over allegations that Rep. Charlie Rangel violated House rules, a special ethics panel will meet Thursday to set the stage for a rare ethics trial.”

AP: "The four Democrats and four Republicans acting as judges are holding their organizational meeting for an ethics trial that many Democrats hope will go away. That could only happen if Rangel negotiates a plea bargain, admitting to substantial violations, or resigns. Punishment could range from a report criticizing his conduct to a reprimand or censure by the House, or a vote to expel him -- which is highly unlikely."

"'He feels, I think very strongly, that he has not done anything that was wrong,' said a Democratic member of the House in Rangel's camp," per the New York Post. "The supporter said Rangel was drawing a line in the sand on the matter of his solicitations of big-bucks contributions from corporations for the Charles Rangel Center for Public Affairs at CCNY -- a story The Post first broke in 2007."

The New York Daily News says Rangel "dragged out negotiations ... to the bitter end ... leaving many Democratic colleagues irate." Apparently, "he was still trying to find a way last night to admit he did wrong, without saying he did it on purpose, sources said."

"To the House minority leader, 'Speaker' Boehner seems to have a nice ring to it," Politico's Martin writes. "So much so that months before any midterm votes are cast, John Boehner of Ohio is putting his own face on the GOP's drive to take back the House by quietly launching a 'Boehner for Speaker' committee that aims to boost the party's lagging fundraising, in part by introducing him as a 'regular guy' from Ohio."

"But while the effort plays up Boehner's modest roots, the going rate to participate is pricey: According to materials distributed by Boehner's camp and obtained by POLITICO, lobbyists and other major donors across the country who give the maximum or help raise $100,000 will get meetings with Boehner, calls from senior aides with updates on the campaign and 'VIP access to all events, including roundtables, briefings, breakout discussions and interactive panel discussions.'"