From NBC's Chuck Todd
The GOP averted a P.R. disaster after the race came down to Steele and Dawson. It was a pretty obvious choice: Pick the African American or the guy who had to quit an all-white country club. Had Dawson not had that negative mark on his resume, he would have won because he was a party insider. (Will this lead to him and other southern Republican politicians to end these country club restrictions? It's very retro in this day...)
 
As for Steele, he's got a lot of work to do. The big knock on him was that he wasn't an RNC insider and he's not the best organizer. His Senate campaign in 2006 was a lot of hot air, but he was simply crushed and he ran as a moderate at the time. Get used to a lot of sentences that end in "baby," Steele is fond of the word when he wants to showboat a tad in speeches. He certainly will be a better TV book than Duncan or Dawson would have been. And that does matter.
 
But Steele will be judged on mechanics more than optics. The issue for the GOP isn't finding a new face; it's finding a new political identity and catching up with the Democrats on the technological front. Steele may become a good spokesperson for the party -- the bar's kinda low right now as it stands. But can he raise the real money and put in place the grassroots tools necessary to make the party competitive?
 
By the way, while Steele's an outsider to the RNC, he's not exactly a Washington outsider. He was born and raised in the DC area and has hob-nobbed plenty with the powers that be in the GOP. So it won't be the culture shock to the GOP leadership that, for instance, an Anuzis or Dawson election would have been since neither were DC guys.

From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier this month, the candidates for RNC chairman -- every single one of them -- cited Ronald Reagan as their favorite Republican president.

Today, with Michael Steele becoming the party's first African-American chairman, they turned to Abraham Lincoln.

After the fourth round of voting, Ken Blackwell -- who is also black -- dropped out and referred to Lincoln before endorsing Steele. "We must be a party that makes good on the promise of Lincoln," he said.

Then Steele mentioned Lincoln at a press conference after his victory. "It is just one more bold step the party of Lincoln has taken," he said.

When the race turned into a contest between Steele and South Carolina party chair Katon Dawson -- who once belonged to a whites-only country club -- the choice for some RNC members became obvious, especially after Barack Obama made history last week by becoming the nation's first African-American president.

Besides race, picking Steele over Dawson was a signal that Republicans wanted to expand their reach beyond the South -- as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell urged his party yesterday.

"It is time to get to work," Steele said. "We've got a party to build."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Michael Steele became the first African American to lead the Republican Party, two months after Barack Obama was elected the first black president of the United States.

Video: Michael Steele makes his acceptance speech as the newly elected RNC Chairman.

It took six rounds, but, in the end, Steele pulled it off, staving off South Carolina Party chair Katon Dawson, by a 91-77 vote. (This means, of the Anuzis votes, Steele picked up 12, Dawson got eight.)

"As a little boy growing up in this town, this is awesome," Steele said. "It is with a great deal of humility and sense of service that I thank all of you ... to serve as the next chairman of our proud ... strong ... and very, very hardworking Republican National Committee. ...

"It's time for something completely different, and we're going to bring it to them. We are going to bring this party to every corner, board room, community....

"For those who want to obstruct," he warned, "get ready to be knocked over."

He vowed to expand the party like never before seen and that he will take the fight to all parts of the country.

"To my friends in the Northeast," he said, "get ready baby, it's time to turn it on. We're going to win in the Northeast, continue to win in the South, win with a new storm in the midwest, and when we get to the west, we're going to win there."

He called this "a new opportunity. I cannot do this by myself."

He vowed to empower the national committeemen and make sure the "values" and "principles  that made us the party of Lincoln" are brought to the forefront.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
The Pittsburgh Steelers will have bipartisan representation at President Barack Obama's White House Inaugural Superbowl Congressional Party. (not the official name, of course.)

We've been told today that Republican Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania will attend.  He'll be joining his Democratic Senate colleague Bob Casey, who says he's bringing the "terrible towels."

The Arizona Cardinals will not have Senate representation.  The staffs of Arizona Republican Senators John McCain and Jon Kyl have told us their bosses will not attend. 

*** UPDATE *** Here's a guest list, released by the White House: Sens. Bob Casey (D-PA), Dick Durbin (D-IL), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Arlen Specter (R-PA) and Reps. Elijah Cummings (D-MD), Artur Davis (D-AL), Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), Charlie Dent (R-PA), Mike Doyle (D-PA), Trent Franks (R-AZ), Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), Paul Hodes (D-NH), Eleanor Holmes-Norton (D-DC), Patrick Murphy (D-PA), Fred Upton (R-MI).

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Michael Steele took the lead after the fifth round of voting in the race for RNC Chairman, overtaking South Carolina Party Chair Katon Dawson, 79-69.

Steele is now within six votes of becoming the first African American to lead the Republican Party, two months after Barack Obama was elected the first black president of the United States.

Almost immediately after the results were announced, Saul Anuzis, who garnered just 20 votes in the third round, took to the podium and withdrew. He declined to endorse either candidate.

Dawson needs a 16-4 split in the sixth and, likely, final round.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro

Former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell dropped his bid for RNC Chair, and gave an impassioned endorsement of Michael Steele.

"We must be a party that makes good on the promise of Lincoln," said Blackwell, an African American, just before endorsing Steele, who is also black.

Through four rounds, Blackwell had 15 votes. He started with 20 after Round One.

It will be interesting to see where his votes go in Round Five, however, because many of his supporters are considered the most conservative in the party. Dawson would have seemed to be the likely recipient before his full-throated endorsement of Steele.

"I cannot change the composition of this electorate [pause for laughs] nore would I want to," Blackwell said.

But he added, Republicans must "unleash a new birth of freedom" He said, Republicans need a candidate who "must inspire hope," "have leadership ability and a "vision to pull us together and ... Americans together" ...

"That is why I put my fullest support behind Michael Steele."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
After the surprise drop out of former Chairman Mike Duncan, South Carolina party chairman Katon Dawson has taken a two-vote lead over Michael Steele, 62-60.

This comes despite Duncan encouraging his voters to go with Steele, a source close to Duncan told First Read.

Anuzis moved to 31, and Blackwell remained at 15, rounding out fourth-round voting.

The winning candidate needs 85 votes to clinch. That means Dawson now needs 23 more votes, and Steele needs 25.

Duncan met with Steele privately prior to dropping out to tell him of his plans, a source said. The source added that "he likes Steele," but he's not sure that the members will all move to Steele. Many of them aren't warm to Steele, because he's not a committee member.

The source also said that Duncan pulled out because he's a "party guy" and didn't want a long, drawn-out fight.

This now is shaping up to be a fight between, fundamentally, an "insider" (Dawson) and an "outsider" (Steele). It also ironically sets up the first African American to lead the Republican Party against a party chairman from the South, who was a member of a country club that was formerly all-white.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
RNC Chairman Mike Duncan

has dropped out of the race for RNC Chairman.

"The winds of change" are upon the RNC, he said. "I see what's happening."

More to come

*** UPDATE *** Duncan thanked his staff. He said that he is a new grandfather, and will be plenty busy.

So what does this mean?
1. Duncan is out.
2. That does NOT necessarily mean Steele will win. He still has to get 85 votes. Katon Dawson is the one to watch next round. He showed the most movement last round and if he pulls further up it could be a two-man race between Steele and Dawson. Dawson would be taking up the insider mantle now.
3. Also, think about if you add Duncan's and Blackwell's votes to Dawson or Anuzis, it is very close.

"This is the opening we were hoping for," an Anuzis spokesman said.

From NBC's Andrea Mitchell

Finance committee member John Kerry said on MSNBC's Andrea Mitchell Reports that he is against the reported bad bank proposal Treasury is working on.

Kerry said he'd prefer to see the banks write off their losses, take their hits and avoid more taxpayer liability

From NBC's Ken Strickland
President Obama may have called it "shameful," but Sen. Claire McCaskill took to the Senate floor and unloaded on the corporate execs getting billions in bonuses funded by taxpayer dollars: "We have a bunch of idiots on Wall Street that are kicking sand in the face of the American taxpayer." And then the Missouri Democrat reloaded.

Video: McCaskill: Wall St. 'kicking taxpayer in shins'

"They don't get it," McCaskill said. "These people are idiots. You can't use taxpayer money to pay out $18-billion in bonuses... What planet are these people on?"

Today, McCaskill introduced legislation that would cap the executive pay at any company getting federal bailout money at $400,000. (The same salary of the US President.) "They'd have to limit that executive compensation for everyone in their company until they pay back every dime to the taxpayers," she said.

"Once they're off the public dole, once the taxpayers aren't footing the bill, then it's not as much our business what they get paid," she said. "But right now, they're on the hook to us. And they owe us something more than a fancy waste basket and a $15-million dollar jet. They owe us some common sense."

McCaskill added, "We must have our financial institutions survive, but not with a culture that thinks it's OK to kick the taxpayer in the shins while they drink champagne and fly in fancy jets."

And with one more round in the chamber, she fired off: "We should have done it in the first place, but I don't think any of us thought these guys were this stupid... but we've learned our lesson."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
Michael Steele has taken the lead in this race for RNC chairman, after what amounts to a third overtime here.

After the third round of voting, Steele is at 51 -- gaining three from the last round and five over all. Duncan has slipped to 44, down from 48 last round and 52 on first ballot.

No one achieved the needed 85-vote majority, so voting goes to a fourth round. There, again, will be a 15-minute recess, then another vote, and about 15 minutes to count the votes.

Dawson showed the most movement this round, picking up five. Anuzis remained at 24, and Blackwell lost four more.

But it's a bit of Groundhog's Day at this RNC race. In three rounds of votes, there has only been a total movement of 26 votes

"Steele picking up three, us losing four is tough," Duncan spokesman Chris Taylor said. He said is showing real movement and said he was surprised Anuzis stayed at 24

"This is a member-non member race," he stressed, adding that there are still 15 Blackwell votes, which likely went to Dawson this round.

He added, if "we continue this trend, and Dawson gets ahead of us," then he'll be very concerned.

From NBC's Athena Jones

WASHINGTON -- On the campaign trail then-candidates Barack Obama and Joe Biden cast themselves as champions of labor and middle class, men who had not forgotten where they came from and who would fight for the concerns of ordinary Americans.

Today's announcement of a task force aimed at studying ways to raise living standards for middle class Americans and help the poor become middle class is in line with that same populist theme and with Obama's consistent focus on economic issues at a time of rising unemployment.

"Today we learned that our economy shrank in the last three months of 2008 by 3.8 percent," Obama said, calling the statistic a disaster for working families. "The recession is deepening and the urgency of our economic crisis is growing."

The president repeated his call for bold swift action to pass a recovery package that creates job and his desire to see the House bill strengthened in the Senate.

The middle class task force, which Biden will chair, will hold regular meetings, the first of which is set for Feb. 27th in Philadelphia and which will be on green jobs.

The task force will propose laws, policy and executive orders focused on issues like expanding education and training opportunities, restoring labor standards and protecting retirement security. Dr. Jared Bernstein will be the group's executive director. The administration also launched a website -www.AStrongMiddleClass.gov -- where it will post the group's meeting materials and reports.

The audience assembled for the East Room announcement included members of Congress and the administration, representatives of organized labor and at least one governor, Montana's Brian Schweitzer.

Both Obama and Biden made a point of stressing the importance of the labor movement, with Obama saying that strong unions were key to a strong middle class. He signed three executive orders intended to strengthen unions and protect government workers when contracts change hands.

Biden welcomed labor back into the fold, saying such groups had been neglected during the previous adminisration.

"I want to thank the outstanding individuals, many of whom are in this room: members of Congress, members of labor, members of business, interest groups that are here representing non-profits," he said. "It's good to see so many of my friends from -- our friends from organized labor, as well. Welcome back to the White House."

At one point Biden made a joke about transparency in the vice president's office, a clear reference to Vice President Dick Cheney that prompted chuckles in the crowd.

"This task force, I might add, which coming out of the Vice President's Office will be a bit unique, will be fully transparent -- totally transparent," he said. "We are going to consult openly -- openly and publically without side groups, who can help us develop the most far-reaching, imaginative solutions to help us solve these problems and create the outcome we're looking for."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Shortly before second-round voting was announced, Duncan spokesman Chris Taylor reminded First Read that in 1993 Haley Barbour got 50 votes on first round.

"We feel good," he said, adding that Duncan had 42 public endorsement this morning. But also said that they expected to gain in the second round. He said he expected to see the most movement in the third round. Like the Anuzis camp, he said he believes there is an impending member versus non-member rift that will take hold, and could sway the race to Duncan -- since Blackwell and Steele are not RNC members.

But the Anuzis people, vying to be the "insider" alternative, contend that if Steele goes above Duncan, that could be a P.R. debacle for the sitting chairman. They believed if Duncan fell to second in the second round, that would translate into gains for Dawson or Anuzis.

The same would hold true for the third round. We'll see what happens.

From NBC's Libby Leist
This afternoon, Secretary Clinton will meet with Former Secretary of State George Shultz at the State Department.

State spokesman Robert Wood said Clinton will be seeking job advice.

"The secretary wanted to have conversations with all of the previous living secretaries of State, and this is just part of that... attempt," he said. "She respects very much Secretary Shultz's views.  He's a well-known and distinguished American figure."

Shultz was Secretary of State under President Reagan from 1982-1989.
He also served as Secretary of the Treasury under Richard Nixon, and he was economic advisor to Reagan before his appointment as Secretary of State.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
After the second round of voting, the race to be RNC chairman is all tied up.

Mike Duncan, who was leading after round one with 52 votes, lost four. Michael Steele gained two, as both are now tied with 48 each.

Katon Dawson moves up one to 29; Anuzis picked up two to go to 24 and Blackwell lost one to go to 19.

This is a "heated race," Duncan spokesman Chris Taylor told First Read. It's"  neck and neck," he added, calling it "organic." He said the race is "expected to go up and down.

"Losing four votes is tough," Taylor said, but "Blackwell continues to go down." So, "that 's 19 votes we can pick up."

*** UPDATE *** That said, a Steele spokesman told First Read that the results for Duncan -- getting less than a third of the initial vote and losing four votes in the second round -- puts the incumbent chairman in a perilous situation.

The next round of voting -- will Blackwell drop out or lose more support -- is shaping up to be pivotal.

From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
One thing to keep in mind, per an Anuzis spokesperson, is that 66 votes were for "outsiders" -- people who aren't members of the RNC -- Steele and Blackwell.

While the remaing 102 votes were for "insiders" -- state party members Dawson, Anuzis, and Duncan.

At the end of the day, the Anuzis spokesperson said that could help an insider at the end of the day.

That's the spin, anyway.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
After the initial round of voting for RNC chairman, as expected, current chairman Mike Duncan is in the lead, but not by as much as his team would likely feel comfortable with.

The tally: Duncan 52, Steele 46, Dawson 28, Anuzis 22, Blackwell 20.

None received the necessary majority, and they will have to vote into a second round. There will be a 15-minute recess until the next vote.

The strong first-round showing indicates this could be moving toward a two-man race. But though the margin -- just six votes separating Duncan and Steele -- could be seen as good news for Steele and bad news for Duncan, the incumbent, a Duncan spokesman tells First Read that "52 is where we expected to be." He added that they hope to pick up ballots from either Anuzis or Dawson in later rounds.

The winning candidate needs 85 votes, a 50 plus one vote majority, to be named chairman.

From NBC's Mark Murray
The initial round of voting is now over, and it took about 15 minutes. Each of the 168 RNC members -- three from every state and territory -- dropped his/her ballot into a box. They proceeded in alphabetical order by state, much like at a high school graduation ceremony, as the committeewoman conducting the vote remarked.

An accounting firm will now begin tallying the votes.

"I can't believe how exciting this is. I am hanging on the edge of my seat," said one observer in the room.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Five candidates were nominated to be on the ballot for RNC chairman at this morning's final day of the RNC Winter Meeting.

The arguments for each candidate -- Ken Blackwell, Michael Steele, Mike Duncan, Katon Dawson and Saul Anuzis -- were laid out in speeches made by various committee members supporting their candidate. Each candidate had to have one nominator and at least one second.

First to be nominated was former Ohio Secretary of State Blackwell. His nominator lauded Blackwell's "13-4 record" -- "ironic" -- on this Super Bowl weekend. He extended the metaphor, comparing Blackwell to Arizona Cardinals' quarterback Kurt Warner.

"No one gave the Arizona Cardinals a chance," he said. "But they turned to Kurt Warner ... that's what we need. ... Ken Blackwell's life is the American Dream."

Next was the Michael Steele contingent. The case was made that he's a "quality man" with "quality values" who would most represent change. And that he's ready "this sunday" to go on Fox News Sunday. One of the selling points for Steele is that he's one of the better, if not the best, communicator of the candidates.

The argument for Duncan, the current chairman who his opponents argue least represents change, was one of exactly that -- change. There were several Obama themes echoed, as his nominator proclaimed Duncan is "fired up and ready to fight" and that he is the "change we need." What is perhaps, though, Duncan's best selling point is his fundraising ability. He outraised the DNC and fueled much of McCain's campaign. "If we can't raise money, we can't win," one nominator said. (Duncan received the loudest applause. Steele was second.)

Another took a veiled shot at Steels, saying, it's not about "one person on TV" -- "it's about all of us, sharing conservative values across the country."

For Dawson, it was a message of experience, not change. A sticking point for Dawson has been his membership in a country club that until recently was all-white. The National Committeeman from South Carolina, who is black, nominated Dawson. "He's a uniter," he said. Dawson's ability to raise money and win races was also put forward. Despite his helping to win races in South Carolina, his nominator said, "You think that's easy; it's not."

The main argument for Anuzis was a willingness and ability to use technology to spread the Republican message as well as an enthusiasm to go anywhere to sell that message.

Currently, the first ballot is taking place, as members are submitting their ballots.

From NBC's Ken Strickland
Republican Sen. Judd Gregg acknowledged that he is being considered as Obama's Commerce Secretary, and he is "honored" to be.

"I am aware that my name is one of those being considered by the White House for Secretary of Commerce, and am honored to be considered, along with others, for the position," the New Hampshire senator said in a statement. "Beyond that there is nothing more I can say at this time."

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Take me to your leader: The self-help saying, "Today is the first day of the rest of my life," could very well apply to the Republican Party today as it meets in DC to elect a new chairman after its stinging political defeats in 2006 and 2008. There are five candidates: current chairman Mike Duncan of Kentucky, Michigan party chair Saul Anuzis, former Ohio Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, South Carolina party chair Katon Dawson and former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele. (A sixth candidate, former Huckabee campaign manager Chip Saltsman, who distributed the CD with "Barack the Magic Negro" on it, withdrew from the race yesterday.) The vote offers several mini-themes. There's the referendum on the incumbent Duncan (the vote will likely turn into a race between Duncan and an anti-Duncan choice). There are the candidates' regional differences (Anuzis and Steele are from reliable Dem states; Dawson and Duncan are from solid GOP ones). There's ideology (Blackwell and Dawson are the most conservative candidates; Steele is perhaps the most moderate). There's race (Blackwell and Steele are black; Dawson once belonged to a whites-only country club; "Barack the Magic Negro"). And then there's the members-only angle (Duncan, Anuzis, and Dawson are RNC members; Blackwell and Steele are outsiders). In fact, that final point could very well swing the election in the second and third rounds of balloting. If Anuzis and/or Dawson drop out, do their supporters bolt to the outsider Steele? Or do they back Duncan, the man they've worked with for quite some time?   

*** Status quo you can believe in? Just askin', but what kind of message would the GOP be sending after its 2008 losses by keeping Mitch McConnell as Senate leader, keeping John Boehner as House leader and keeping Mike Duncan as RNC chair? If that all happens, it's an odd message to send to the party and American voters. Not much change…

*** The mechanics of the vote: The 168 RNC members convene at 10:30 am ET, and here's what follows: They conduct a head count (determining how many members and proxies are in attendance); they determine how the vote is conducted (it's expected to be by secret ballot); they give nominating and seconding speeches; and finally they begin the balloting. To win, a candidate needs a simple majority (so 85 votes out of the 168). There is no cut-off threshold. For example, if Blackwell finishes last in the first round of voting, he isn't forced out of the contest -- so it's anyone's guess how many round of ballots there will be. Also, the results from each round of voting will be announced publicly. As of Thursday, First Read's survey of the 168 RNC members had Duncan with 44 first-vote supporters, Steele with 30, Dawson at 18, Blackwell and Anuzis at 16 each and Saltsman (who has since dropped out) at 1.

*** A tough sell becomes tougher: Obama yesterday channeled his inner-populist, chastising Wall Street executives for taking billions in bonus money, even as many of these firms were begging the government for bailout money. The move may have been calculated as the president and his economic team prepare for the likelihood that they'll be asking for BILLIONS more in bailout money to rescue many of these same financial firms. Convincing Congress to hand more bailout money to banks was going to be hard enough before yesterday. Now that the general public becomes even more sour on these Wall Street executives, it may prove even more difficult to convince members of Congress who will be hearing from many angry constituents. Also, expect two things next week in response to yesterday's news: (1) Congress to drag executives in front the public and attempt to shame them into giving back some of these bonuses, and (2) the administration to write regulations preventing bonuses in the future for firms who take government money. It's going to be tough to legally yank bonus money away now, but putting restrictions on future bonus money is very possible.

*** The race to 60: The Judd-Gregg-for-Commerce-Secretary story is very real. Senate Republicans are upset that he hasn't put the story to bed. So clearly he's pondering. One sticking point is that New Hampshire has a Dem governor, John Lynch, and that could give Democrats 60 seats if Gregg leaves and Al Franken eventually wins. One idea floating out there is a deal between Obama/Gregg and Lynch to appoint a caretaker Republican (perhaps ex-Sen. Warren Rudman?). Even if he doesn't take the job, Gregg is certainly sending the signal that he doesn't want to run in 2010. That is a terrible sign for the Senate GOP. Another retirement makes the idea of netting a single seat in 2010 nearly impossible. This likely outcome in 2010 actually could mean Lynch and Obama are open to a deal that keeps a Republican in the seat until November 2010, since getting that 60th Senate seat in the coming years seems probable.

*** Gone, Blago, gone: So you say there is no bipartisanship in politics? Well, in a unanimous 59-0 vote yesterday, Democratic and Republican state senators in Illinois convicted Rod Blagojevich in his impeachment trial, making Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn the state's top executive. Is the nightmare for Democrats over? Not quite.

First, there's Blago's eventual trial, which will produce plenty of news stories (both in Illinois and nationally). And second, there's 2010, when Roland Burris and likely a host of other Democratic and Republican candidates will be running for Obama's old Senate seat. Burris released this written statement yesterday: "I stand behind the Illinois State Senate's decision today to remove Gov. Blagojevich from office. As I've repeatedly stated, the governor must be held accountable for his actions to the legislature, in a court of law and to the people of the State of Illinois." But it's going to take more than a statement to wash away Blago's fingerprints on Burris' appointment, if he decides to run in 2010.

*** Pallin' around with Obama: Remember this Palin line from the presidential campaign? "Our opponent is someone who sees America as imperfect enough to pal around with terrorists who targeted their own country." Well, on Saturday night, Palin will be in DC for the Alfalfa Dinner, where Obama will also be in attendance. Her reason for coming to the Lower 48? To pal around with Obama, she said. "How often will I get an opportunity to have dinner with the president? I will take up that offer to do so." Speaking of potential 2012 GOP presidential candidates, Mitt Romney speaks today at 12:30 pm ET at the House Republican annual retreat in Hot Springs, Va. He then holds a media availability there at 2:00 pm ET. 
 
Countdown to NJ GOP primary: 123 days
Countdown to VA Dem primary: 130 days
Countdown to Election Day 2009: 277 days
Countdown to Election Day 2010: 641 days

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Previewing today's RNC chair voting, the AP's Sidoti writes, "Republicans say it's all but certain no one will get a majority on the first ballot when the 168-member RNC votes. Republicans say Duncan leads in endorsements for a second two-year term, with Steele, Dawson and Anuzis in competitive positions, while Blackwell trails. Still, with at least two rounds of balloting expected, it's possible anyone could end up with a majority."

The Hill's Reid Wilson also curtain-raises today's vote: Mike Duncan is likely to lead on first ballot "with most rivals expecting him to score more than 50 votes, but fewer than 60. His challenge, many say, is keeping his coalition together beyond the first two ballots, and demonstrating that he is able to pick up voters who didn't write down his name the first time. Former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele is likely to finish second on the first ballot. The charismatic GOPAC chairman has released more public supporters than any other candidate this week. But Steele will have to overcome concerns raised about his conservative credentials, which have been questioned by other prominent committee members. Steele also faces a challenge of not having served on the committee for several years, which could be an issue for some members who want to select one of their own."

Katon Dawson is expected to finish third, but he is hurt by his membership in what was until recently an all-white country club; Saul Anuzis is expected to be fourth with around 20 votes and "is a second choice of many committee members, given his tenure on the committee, but Anuzis has enemies as well, many of whom question whether his reliance on Web-based social networking applications are really the answer to the party's woes. Anuzis is also without an obvious ideological home, and though he has friends in all camps, there are fewer members as passionate about his candidacy as they are about other candidates. Though Ken Blackwell has fervent support, he's likely to finish last with about 15 votes.

Meanwhile, "Chip Saltsman, … who came under fire late last year for distributing a holiday CD with the parody song 'Barack the Magic Negro,' dropped out of the contest Thursday on the eve of the vote," the New York Times says. Mr. Saltsman, a former Tennessee Republican chairman, sent an e-mail message to members of the Republican National Committee announcing his decision. The message made no mention of why he was leaving the race, but Republicans have said for days that he was struggling to collect enough signatures to qualify for the ballot."

The New York Times says Obama "branded Wall Street bankers 'shameful' on Thursday for giving themselves nearly $20 billion in bonuses as the economy was deteriorating and the government was spending billions to bail out some of the nation's most prominent financial institutions… It was a pointed -- if calculated -- flash of anger from the president, who frequently railed against excesses in executive compensation on the campaign trail. He struck his populist tone as he confronted the possibility of having to ask Congress for additional large sums of money, beyond the $700 billion already authorized, to prop up the financial system, even as he pushes Congress to move quickly on a separate economic stimulus package that could cost taxpayers as much as $900 billion." 

Video: President Obama did not hide his anger at the nearly $20 billion in bonuses Wall Street companies doled out last year to corporate executives.

The New York Daily News adds, "Obama was particularly peeved at the news coming as he's working to push his massive economic rescue plan."
But the Washington Post writes that Obama passed up an opportunity to scold Wall Street bonuses and executive pay when he met with CEOs earlier this week. "The president stood with 13 CEOs in the East Room of the White House on Wednesday to push for congressional passage of his $816 billion stimulus package. He talked broadly about personal responsibility but did not specifically refer to excessive pay, even though several of the executives have made many millions of dollars a year."

New Hampshire Sen. Judd Gregg (R) for Commerce secretary? That could set off a string of events that would lead to Democrats with 60 in the Senate. If Gregg vacates his seat, the state's governor would appoint a senator. New Hampshire's governor is a Democrat. That would give Democrats 59, and if Al Franken holds in Minnesota, that would give them 60.

Joe Biden gets his first task: running a middle class task force. In a USA Today op-ed, Biden writes, "For years, we had a White House that failed to put the middle class front and center in its economic policies. President Obama has made it clear that is going to change. And it's why he has asked me to lead a task force on the middle class."

Per NBC's Ken Strickland, Eric Holder's final confirmation vote will take place on Monday. There will be three hours of debate starting at 3:15 pm ET. Then final vote will occur around 6:15 pm ET. 

The Lilly Ledbetter Act signing yesterday was also Michelle Obama's first public speaking appearance as first lady.

CONGRESS: SCHIP passes Senate
The Washington Post: "The Senate overwhelmingly approved legislation yesterday to provide health insurance to 11 million low-income children, a bill that would for the first time spend federal money to cover children and pregnant women who are legal immigrants. Lawmakers voted 66 to 32, largely along party lines, to renew the joint state-federal program and spend an additional $32.8 billion to expand coverage to 4 million more children. The expansion would be paid for by raising the cigarette tax from 39 cents a pack to $1."

"The House approved similar legislation on Jan. 14, and President Obama is expected to sign a final version as early as next week."

After the Huffington Post reported that reform groups are asking Congress to investigate whether TARP recipients are using the bailout money to fund political campaigns, the group Change Congress -- which is calling for a strike among political donors until congressional campaign-finance laws are changed -- announced that it has now withheld $550,000 in contributions from politicians. 

The conservative commentariat is making it easier for congressional Republicans to oppose Obama's stimulus package. From Peggy Noonan to David Brooks -- two conservative columnists who have been sometime Obama fans -- are both critics today.

And the Wall Street Journal editorial page does its own analysis that -- not surprisingly -- is critical of the bill. But it only strengthens the spine of conservative Republicans.

The Los Angeles Times has a piece that notes while congressional Republicans have easily come up with consensus reasons to oppose the stimulus, they don't have a  consensus on alternative ideas. "The party's scattershot stance points up two problems facing Republicans after their dismal showing in November's election: Absent a central figure like the president, who speaks for Republicans? And with its image in tatters, how does the GOP oppose Obama without seeming heedlessly partisan, or ignoring the voters' desire for quick action to ease the economic hurt?"

Are Republicans trying more to rebrand themselves during this stimulus debate than trying to improve the bill? The Washington Post: "The unanimous vote by House Republicans against President Obama's stimulus plan provided an early indication that the GOP hopes to regain power by becoming the champion of small government, a reputation many felt slipped away during the high-spending Bush years."

Ed Secretary Arne Duncan defended the billions for education in the stimulus package. "'If we want to stimulate the economy, we need a better-educated workforce,' Duncan said Thursday in an interview with The Associated Press. 'That's the only way, long-term, we're going to get out of this economic crisis,' he said."