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  • The new math

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    Out of the day, Clinton got 87 pledged delegates to Obama's 63 for a net of 24. (52.5 to 33.5 out of Florida; 34.5 to 29.5 out of Michigan.)

    Obama is now 62.5 delegates away from clinching the nomination with a new magic number 2,118. This is when the nine (cut to 4.5) Edwards pledged delegates (out of 13) in Florida, who have pledged to vote for Obama, are factored in. Without them, Obama would be 67 away.

    Clinton, on the other hand, would need 238 delegates.

    NBC NEWS has also now added officially 5.5 more superdelegates for Obama and 7.5 for Clinton (half of 8-6 for Clinton in FL; and 7-5 for her in MI).
     
    Assuming Clinton and Obama split the remaining 86 delegates at stakes in Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana evenly (43 apiece), that would put Sen. Obama 19.5 away from clinching the nomination. (So, for all practical purposes, he would need about 20 superdelegates to hit the magic number.) Clinton would need 195.

    The NBC NEWS Delegate Counts:

    PLEDGED: 1712 to 1587
    SUPERDELEGATES: 327 to 293
    EDWARDS PL. DELEGATES: 16.5 to 0 (adding the 4.5 from Florida)
    OVERALL: 2,055.5 to 1,880

  • Obama had the votes for 50-50 MI split

    From NBC's Chuck Todd
    Per multiple sources inside the closed Rules and Bylaws Committee lunch, Obama actually had the votes to get a 50-50 delegate split out of Michigan -- but by just a vote or two.

    However, it was decided to go with the 69-59 split to win a larger majority. That measure passed 19-8.

    *** UPDATE *** Also, according to those with knowledge of the Michigan agreement, it is fair to claim Clinton the winner of Michigan. But they caution against counting her popular vote in the state.

  • Clinton camp statement on DNC rulings

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    Clinton supporters Harold Ickes and Tina Flournoy released this statement; "Today's results are a victory for the people of Florida who will have a voice in selecting our party's nominee, and will see its delegates seated at our party's convention. The decision by the Rules and Bylaws Committee honors the votes that were cast the people of Florida, and allocates the delegates accordingly.

    "We strongly object to the committee's decision to undercut its own rules in seating Michigan's delegates without reflecting the votes of the people of Michigan. The committee awarded to Senator Obama not only the delegates won by uncommitted, but four of the delegates  won by Senator Clinton. This decision violates the bedrock principles of our democracy and our party.

    "We reserve the right to challenge this decision before the credentials committee and appeal for a fair allocation of Michigan's delegates as they were cast."

  • Michigan compromise passes

    From NBC's Mark Murray and Ben Weltman
    By a 19-8 vote, a compromise allocating Michigan's pledged delegates by a 69-59 forumla -- but counting each by just half a vote -- has just passed the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee.

    The compromise will give Clinton 34.5 delegates and Obama 29.5 delegates. It would also seat all of Michigan's superdelegates but also give them just half a vote. Moreover, it would make the magic number to clinch the Democratic nomination 2,118.

    But Clinton adviser and committee member Harold Ickes strongly disagreed with this compromise -- and said Clinton will reserve her right to take this dispute to the Democratic convention.

    "This motion will hijack, hijack, remove four delegates won by Hillary Clinton and most importantly reflect the preferences of 600,000 Michigan voters. This body of 30 individuals has decided that they are going to substitute their judgment for 600,000 voters."

    He noted sarcastically, "Now that's what I call democracy."

    He went on to say, "Hijacking four delegates is not a good way to start down the path of party unity," he said, adding that Clinton reserves her right to take "this to credentials committee."

  • Florida compromise passes

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    A motion that would seat the entire Florida delegation and give them all a half vote just passed unanimously.

    That measure would net Clinton 19 pledged delegates (Clinton picks up 52.5, Obama gets 33.5, and Edwards 6.5).

    In addition, all Florida superdelegates will be seated, but with half a vote each.

  • Motion to seat all FL delegates fails

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    By a 12-15 vote, a motion to seat all Florida delegates failed.

    Afterwards, Clinton supporters in the audience began chanting, "Denver, Denver, Denver" -- meaning, we guess, that they want to take the challenge to the Democratic convention.

  • Rules committee reaches deal

    From NBC's Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
    The rules committee has come to an agreement on both Michigan and Florida, a rules committee member confirms to First Read. Florida was not a problem during the luncheon meeting, but Michigan was an all together different story.

    It looked as if the agreement they were going to come to was going to pass by a razor-thin, one or two person, majority, but they went back because they didn't want that. They wanted a closer show of unaninimity. The rules member is confident 20 or 21 will vote in favor of the agreement, but pro-Clinton members will argue heavily in favor of a hard line regardless.

    The deal reached, NBC NEWS has learned, is a 69-59 split with half votes in Michigan. Obama will be guaranteed the two add-on superdelegates. NBC NEWS has not confirmed if the superdelegates will get half or full votes.

    Florida will be split by the primary vote and votes will count for half.

  • Obama resigns from Trinity church

    From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones and NBC's Mark Hudspeth
    ABERDEEN, SD -- Barack Obama resigned his membership at Chicago's Trinity United Church of Christ, campaign communications director Robert Gibbs confirmed this afternoon.

    The resignation came just more than a month after Obama denounced former Trinity pastor and friend the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, and days after another long-time Obama associate, the Rev. Michael Pfleger, had delivered a sermon at the church ridiculing Hillary Clinton. Both men's comments were captured on video.

  • 12 angry men -- or 30 (plus women)?

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Oh to be a fly on the wall inside the extended "lunch" the rules committee is taking. The scene here is full of speculation and buzz. No one seems to actually know what's going on, and there is hopeful anticipation that the committee will come back with a decision. The longer the members are out, the more possible that reality becomes. Or, the more divided they really are and the less chance something on Michigan is accomplished before late tonight, if not tomorrow or much later. The committee was due back at 4:15 pm ET.

    By the way, does this remind anyone of 12 Angry Men, or rather, 30 Angry Men and Women?

    Rules committee members have told First Read they'd like something close to unanimity--a 15-13 vote would not be good, one member told us. It would show yet another sign of a party divided. (15-13 because only 28 are voting members. The two co-chairs do not vote unless there is a tie. Actually, on Florida and Michigan, only 27 would vote, since committee members cannot vote on resolutions from their state.)

    Inside the meeting room, onlookers -- guests, members of the media, members of the DNC -- are up chatting and speculating. They are abuzz on the floor and hanging from the balcony, leaning over the railing.

  • Hillary's Puerto Rican caravan

    From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
    BAYAMÓN, PR -- While the DNC meeting over the fate of Florida and Michigan goes on in the nation's capital, Hillary Clinton is now in her third hour of an old-fashioned Puerto Rican caravan, winding her way through the streets to rally as many supporters as she can before tomorrow's primary.

    It's get-out-the-vote like we haven't seen in the States, as the campaign now tells us the entourage has swelled from the dozen cars that gathered in Cataño to nearly 300 going through the outskirts of San Juan.

    "This is a very traditional way of campaigning in Puerto Rico," said Kenneth McClintock, president of the Puerto Rico Senate and a co-chair of Clinton's campaign here. "We know it's not done in the states. But Hillary is learning to campaign borriqua-style."

    In front is a pickup truck outfitted with several very loud loudspeakers, playing a rotation of a half dozen songs, including one by Ricky Martin and another original number that makes the case for the New York senator to a reggaeton beat. A woman also repeatedly announcing, "Aqui está la grande caravana" coming through the neighborhood for "Hillary! Hillary Clinton, la proxima y segura presidenta." She also urges voters to get out tomorrow.

    Following behind is a flatbed truck transporting as many as 40 cameramen, photographers, and reporters -- all watching Clinton's every move in her pickup. She's joined by her Puerto Rico co-chairmen, including McClintock, waving and smiling and offering thumbs up to those who quickly run to the side of the road to catch a glimpse.

    Occasionally, we pass through a neighborhood where some signal a thumbs down. But most wave back excitedly, and others slow down driving the other direction to grab a cell phone picture. And Clinton has remained outside for all but 10 minutes of the ride, even during a quick tropical shower.

    "It's a way that you can see a lot of people in a relatively short period of time and cover a lot of territory," McClintock said, adding that he has seen far fewer negative reactions than usually par for the course. "She's exhilarated."

    Clinton just made a quick pit stop at a local restaurant. On her way out, she was asked if she had heard any updates on the proceedings in Washington. Clinton offered no answer, preferring to resume the caravan.

  • The scene at halftime

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    After the rules committee took its late lunch break, Clinton campaign representatives -- led by Harold Ickes -- held a press conference. Asked if the Clinton campaign was willing to make a concession like the Obama campaign made over Florida's delegation (allowing Clinton to net an extra 19 delegates), Ickes replied, "A concession? Give me a break."

    Under that compromise, he said, Clinton would end up losing delegates (if you seat the Florida delegates fully).

    Also during the break, committee member Donald Fowler, a Clinton supporter, told First Read that it's "better than 50-50" that a resolution is reached today. Fowler said that the tricky part, as Domenico posted earlier, is how to allocate those Michigan delegates.

    *** UPDATE *** Former congressman David Bonior, who made the case for the Obama campaign on Michigan -- that the delegates should be split 50-50 -- told First Read that he was here to hopefully accept a decision of 50-50, not otherwise. But he acknowledged that the apportionment of Michigan's delegates is the problem right now for the committee.

    Most on the committee, it seems, are willing to accepts half votes for Michigan and Florida and Florida appears all but done, including apportionment by the primary vote. That we've noted would net Clinton 19 pledged delegates out of the contest. We'll see if the Obama campaign is willing to concede somewhere between the 50-50 split (64-64 halved to 32-32) and the 69-59 (halved to 35.5-29.5) split floated by the Michigan Democratic Party. One thing's for certain, Ickes, Tina Flournoy and Clinton camp appear unwilling to budge.

  • Behind the scenes

    From NBC's Chuck Todd
    It's informed speculation, but there is some buzz circulating that the Clinton forces on the Rules committee right now are attempting to convince a majority of the members of the committee to punt the decision on Michigan to the Credentials Committee.

    However, there doesn't seem to be a majority on the committee to support the idea of NOT coming to a resolution on Michigan. Florida seems to be a done deal with a small dispute as to whether Superdelegates can be halved or not. But with Michigan, there is just no consensus on the simple issue of whether that state's January result should have any bearing on the allocation of delegates. And without that and with Clinton folks adamant that a 50-50 even split is unacceptable, the state party's 69-59 plan might actually accepted by the rules committee. This is something the Obama campaign isn't happy about at all but they may take it, according to one source, if the Rules Committee makes it crystal clear the January results didn't count, period.

    Again, this is informed buzz and, well, anything can still happen; expect a heated debate when the re-convene publicly.

  • So what happens next?

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    Now that all these presentations have been made, the Rules and Bylaws committee members will now go to a private lunch here inside the hotel. Once they return -- at 4:15 pm ET -- debate will occur on Florida and Michigan.

  • Quote of the day

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    "My momma taught me to play by the rules and respect those rules. My mother taught me, and I'm sure your mother taught you, that when you decide to change the rules, middle of the game, end of the game, that is referred to as cheatin.'" -- Donna Brazile to former Michigan Gov. Jim Blanchard, who was making the case for the Clinton campaign to get 73 delegates out of Michigan with 55 for uncommitted.

    Blanchard responded that he agreed, and that "Hillary Clinton did play by the rules." He added that, "She even went along with the pledge not to campaign there."

    ---
    Of note, when Harold Ickes was yielded time to speak, he said he wanted to comment on what Bonior said, who presented for Obama, committee co-chair James Roosevelt told Ickes the time was for question and answer and that if he didn't have a question, he wouldn't let him speak.

  • Obama camp: Split Michigan 50-50

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    David Bonior, a former Michigan congressman who was Edwards' campaign manager and later endorsed Obama, gave the Obama campaign's presentation on Michigan.

    He argued that the campaign wants Michigan's delegation seated at the Democratic convention (and is open to penalizing it by giving each delegate half a vote). But he maintained that the delegate allocation should be 50-50 between Clinton and Obama. "This was not a normal primary election, and it did not produce a fair reflection of voters' preference," he said.

    Again, that presentation produced tough questions from Clinton backers on the panel. Elizabeth Smith of DC said she was "puzzled" why Obama and Edwards took their names off the ballot. Bonior replied, "We were following the path based by this committee -- that this would not count."

    And Mame Reiley of Virginia said she could be persuaded to awarding Obama Michigan's "Uncommitted" vote -- but not giving him 50% of the delegates. Reiley added that it was important to respect "the integrity of the voters."

    Bonior responded: What about respecting the integrity of those who didn't vote?

  • Edwards weighs in on Michigan

    From NBC's Chuck Todd
    Jennifer Palmieri, a spokeswoman for John Edwards, tells First Read that Edwards believes that the 40% of Michigan's "Uncommitted" vote should ALL go to Obama.

    Obama, Edwards, Biden, and Richardson all removed their names from the Michigan ballot.

  • Michigan's 69-59 proposal

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    For the past hour, Michigan's representatives here at the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee have offered this proposal: seat its delegation in full, with full voting rights, with a 69-59 Clinton-Obama split of its 128 pledged delegates.

    State party chairman Mark Brewer said the proposal was based upon the primary (in which Clinton got 55% of the vote and "Uncommitted" got 40%), exit polls (which showed the support breaking Clinton 46%, Obama 37%), and write-in ballots for Obama (which weren't accepted).

    "There is a fair way, there is a reasonable way," noted Michigan Sen. Carl Levin, who followed Brewer. "It is a fair path forward.

    But both men faced tough questions, especially from Clinton supporters on the panel, who want the January 15 primary to reflect the delegate split. Clinton supporter Tina Flournoy asked why exit polls were being used when they've proven unreliable in the past. Brewer responded, "Because you had an incomplete ballot, which didn't give us a true reflection" of voter preference.

    Elaine Kamarck, another Hillary backer, pointed out that "Uncommitted" has been a preference in past Democratic contests, and that it was problematic awarding those delegates to a candidate who wasn't on the ballot. Brewer answered that this was a "unique and extraordinary" situation. Every bit of evidence in Michigan, he added, was that those uncommitted votes were for either Obama or Edwards.

  • Obama camp calls for half votes

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    The Obama campaign called for half votes from Florida according to the primary vote. That would net Clinton 19 pledged delegates, something congressman Robert Wexler called a "concession."

    When asked by top Clinton aide Harold Ickes, also a member of the rules committee, how that would be a "concession," Wexler shot back, pointing out passionately that those are the same number of delegates Clinton netted out of Ohio and Pennsylvania.

    Wexler called for support of the Ausman proposal, at least in part. The Ausman challenge would halve the pledged votes but give superdelegates full votes. Wexler called for superdelegates to also get half votes.

    Wexler said the Obama campaign would like to move on in the interest of party unity. But Wexler was questioned by Clinton supporter Alice Huffman pressed Wexler on why Obama camp won't support full votes. He demurred.   

    It appears Clinton camp has the support for potentially full votes by the primary voting from at least (and possibly only) four members -- Ickes, Hartina Flournoy (who also pressed Wexler on supporting full votes), Elaine Kamarck as well as Huffman. Kamarck argued on Michigan, in fact, that "uncommitted" is a candidate and delegates for uncommitted should be apportioned to uncommitted.

    Allan Katz, wearing an Obama lapel pin, has emerged today as a leading voice for Obama on the rules committee. Also speaking up seemingly in support of Obama were Obama supporter Mark Hines and undeclared rules committee member and DNC Secretary Alice Germond.

    *** UPDATE *** NBC's Doug Adams adds that at a press conference after Florida made its case, the Florida delegation acknowledged it would accept pledged and superdelegates being given half a vote, and they, including Ausman himself, welcomed Obama's "concession." But State Sen. Arthenia Joyner continued to insist that the Clinton campaign wants full votes for the Florida delegation.

  • Just to make your head hurt...

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    Doing the math on if FL/MI are halved. FL by the primary vote, MI by the 69-59 argument...

    Clinton nets 24 pledged delegates in this scenario. With supers, she nets 26, as now.

    MI: 69-59 divide by 2 equals 34.5-29.5 or +5. (Supers: Clinton 7-5 divide by two equals 3.5-2.5. That's +1. Add that in and that's +15. There are 29 supers in MI, so 17 are undecided, so 8.5 undeclared still available if they're half votes.)

    FL: 105-67 divide by 2 equals 52.5-33.5 or +19 (Supers: Clinton 8-6 divide by two equals 4-3. That's +1. Add that in and that's +20. There are 26 total supers there, so 12 are undecided, so 6 votes undeclared still available if they're half votes)

    * This does not factor in Edwards delegates for Obama in Florida. If they are, and nine of 13 have so far pledged to Obama, then Clinton nets 14.5 out of FL and 19.5 overall or 21.5 with supers.

  • Bill expects 'unusual outcome'

    From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
    ELK POINT, SD -- Former President Bill Clinton said today that he thought there would be an "unusual outcome" to the Democratic primaries, citing the Democratic National Committee meetings in Washington.

    "I think that we are going to have an unusual outcome," he said at a front porch rally here, before describing how Florida and Michigan delegates were "eviscerated" by the Democratic Party."

    "And we will see what happens," he said. "And Hillary's position has always been that if everybody gets to vote, and everybody's vote is counted, she would accept the will of the Democrats and those who are legally eligible to participate in that process, that we would unify this party and do our best to win in November."

  • Can't you feel the love?

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    As my NBC colleague Doug Adams just remarked, "Can't you feel the love in the room?"

    Indeed, the tone inside the DNC meeting -- although with frequent partisan applause -- has been respectful and pretty unifying so far.

    After Clinton representative Arthenia Joyner argued that 1.7 million Floridians voted and their votes should be heard, DNC committee member Allan Katz of Florida, who is backing Obama, said that everyone there -- Clinton and Obama supporter alike -- could agree with. That drew applause from the whole room.

    Katz, however, did get Joyner to admit this point: Had the Florida primary been a sanctioned event, perhaps 3 million would have turned out to vote.

  • Hillary talks health care in Puerto Rico

    From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
    CAGUAS, PR – For Hillary Clinton, health care is the universal language.

    She started her Saturday in the commonwealth here with an event at the San Juan Bautista Medical Center, promising as president to treat local hospitals the same as those on the mainland when it comes to Medicare reimbursements.

    "Puerto Ricans pay the same Medicare taxes and deductibles as their fellow United States citizens," Clinton said. "Puerto Rican hospitals like this one must comply with the same standards. I am the only candidate committed to brining equal treatment to payment rates under Medicare for Puerto Rican hospitals."

    She said she has been involved in Puerto Rican issues "for a long time," and said she tried to quadruple funding here in the SCHIP bill that was eventually vetoed.

    Clinton, sporting light purple blouse and capri pants in lieu of her standard pantsuit, explained that she is "dressed for our caravanning," a Puerto Rican tradition she said she was eager to take part in.

    "I have had the most wonderful experience campaigning in Puerto Rico," she said. "I have enjoyed many times marching in the Puerto Rican Day parade [in New York]. Campaigning in Puerto Rico is like one long Puerto Rican day parade. It is incredibly energizing, exciting."

     Reporters are told that Clinton will ride in and around San Juan in the back of a flatbed, mostly just greeting supporters, but also stopping on occasion to deliver remarks.

  • Michigan, the real question

    From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
    How to seat Michigan seems to be the real sticking point. A DNC official tells First Read also that they're not sure there's support for a 50-50 split of delegates there. But that that doesn't mean there's support for an allocation of the delegates based on the primary voting.

    The official said members, as of last night, were close to an agreement on Florida -- halving all delegates' votes by the primary vote.

    The details are not locked in stone, but members would like to have a resolution settled by the end of the day.

  • Ausman's challenge

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    DNC member Jon Ausman is now presenting Florida's challenge. He is arguing 1) that the DNC was wrong to strip the state's superdelegates from the Democratic convention and 2) that Florida's 185 pledged delegates could only be subject to a 50% penalty -- not the 100% one the DNC enacted.

    Ausman said his challenge is simply a "vehicle" to deal with the current controversy. And he hopes it can be a "healing process that unifies us and heals us."

    "So when we leave this room," he added, "we're all wearing the same blue jerseys … so we can go after the Republicans who are wearing the red jerseys."

  • The background...

    From NBC's Mark Murray
    RBC co-chair Alexis Herman, who served as Bill Clinton's Labor secretary, discussed how we all got here: the DNC setting its nominating calendar (allowing IA, NH, NV, and SC to go before February 5); Florida and Michigan violating that window; and then the DNC stripping those states of all their delegates for doing that.

    The fundamental question at today's meeting, Herman said, is to revisit that punishment. The automatic penalty, she added, was stripping those states of 50% of their delegates -- but the DNC chose to strip 100%.

    "We had many states that wanted to violate the timing," she said. "We needed to send a very strong signal in order to prevent additional states from moving forward .. and to protect the integrity of the rules process."

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