From MSNBC.com's Tom Curry
One thing we know is that next Wednesday it'll be over, right? We'll know who the new president will be and whether the Democrats will have a filibuster-proof majority of 60 in the Senate? Right?

Maybe not.

Insiders in Georgia are convinced that there's a very real possibility that neither Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss nor Democrat Jim Martin will have the 50 percent plus one that is needed under Georgia law to determine a winner.

A third candidate, Libertarian lawyer/accountant Allen Buckley has made a strong showing in at least one of the televised debates, but seems unlikely to get more than 10 percent.

If no candidate wins outright next Tuesday, the top two vote getters would go to a Dec. 2 runoff.

A Georgia run-off might be the contest that determines whether Democrats get their 60th member of the Senate, giving them the filibuster-proof majority that would enable Obama, if he's president, to appoint judges and enact his legislative agenda with relatively little effective Republican opposition.

If that were the case -- if Democratic candidate Martin became the focus for Republicans of a "don't let them get 60 seats" GOP effort -- it would make for a very spirited and costly contest.

The Republicans at least would have precedent going for them: Paul Coverdell defeated Democrat Wyche Fowler in a 1992 runoff, the first inkling that perhaps the Bill Clinton-era wasn't going to be so great for Democrats.

In an interview, Buckley said that if he himself does not make the runoff, he may offer up his endorsement to the candidate who persuades him that he's worthy.

"The more votes I get, the more leverage I'll have," he said.

Buckley sounds a bit harsher in dismissing Chambliss than in criticizing Martin.

He calls Chambliss "a proven failure." Martin, he says, "is a nice guy, but he's not the answer either" because he hasn't convinced Buckley he's credible on cutting federal spending.

In his own way, Buckley may end up being as important as that other third party Senate candidate, Dean Barkley in Minnesota.

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
NEW PHILADELPHIA, OH -- This afternoon, McCain may have slightly irked some Ohio voters who are fans of the Mighty Tornadoes in strongly Republican Tuscawaras County.

Appearing in the shadow of Woody Hayes Field, the GOP nominee stepped into the middle of a local high school football rivalry between the New Philadelphia Quakers and the Dover Mighty Tornadoes, wishing the Quakers "good luck" in their game against Dover tomorrow.

Earlier this month, McCain opted not to wade into a World Series match up between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Tampa Bay Rays saying, "Now, I'm not dumb enough to get mixed up in a World Series between swing states." But apparently he had no qualms getting mixed up a bit in a game between Ohio's "twin cities."

While the Quaker fans in attendance loved McCain's support, they were slightly less happy about his confusion of their town with a big city by a similar name.

"I want to say to you I believe we have seen the kind of momentum and enthusiasm that is here in North Philadelphia today that I think is going to make," McCain said, using the wrong name for the second time at the top of his remarks. "In NEW Philadelphia. North Philadelphia's part of a big city. New Philadelphia is the heartland of America."

(Of course, McCain isn't the only one who has flubbed a city's name on the campaign trail. Obama has done it plenty of times.)
 
The New Philadelphia stop was McCain's eighth event in the midst of a two-day bus tour of this perennial bellwether state. Picking up on the Halloween theme, this morning McCain held a rally with Rudy Giuliani at United High School in Hanoverton, warning his audience about Democratic scare tactics. 

"Here's what's going on. It's Halloween, so what do the Democrats do? Every four years, they run out and they try to scare seniors by saying that Republicans are going to take away their Social Security or we're going to take away Medicare," McCain said to a crowd of 4,700 -- more than 1,500 of which were students and staff of the Hanoverton and surrounding school districts. "They do it every four years. And, my friends, our Americans have wised up. I'm going to protect Social Security. I'm going to protect Medicare and I'm not going to let this congress tax away your retirement savings."

Then during a stop in Steubenville, Ohio's town square McCain encountered some holiday-themed signs picking on his campaign's use of Joe the Plumber.

"Could you raise the signs again?," McCain said. "Doug the undertaker. A few Democrats may need to see you Doug after this election is over."

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
DES MOINES, Iowa -- The end is the beginning.

With just four days to go until America elects the next president, Obama returned to the state that launched his once unlikely bid for the White House.

In his speech here, he also hailed the John McCain of the 2000 elections and suggested his rival had modified his principles to try to win this time around.

Several polls show the Democratic nominee with a double-digit lead over McCain in the Hawkeye State, where his big win in the January caucus helped set him on the course to win the nomination. His last visit to this city was May 20. Today, as he did then, Obama thanked his supporters -- saying he would "always be grateful" to the people of Iowa -- and told them they started a movement that has changed the political landscape.

"We began in the depths of winter nearly two years ago, on the steps of the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Illinois. Our first stop was Cedar Rapids, then we came to Des Moines and then we went to Waterloo. It was cold at every stop. It was 7, 8 degrees then," he said as the crowd basked in the sun of a 70-degree day here." 

He went on to say that while at the beginning, he had faced a steep climb to win the nomination, he believed that the people of America and the people of Iowa were ready for something new.

"On the day of the Iowa caucus, my faith in the American people was vindicated and what you started here in Iowa has swept the nation," he said. "We're seeing the same turnout. We're are seeing the same people going and getting line, volunteers, people participating, a whole new way of doing democracy  started right here in Iowa and it is all across the country now."

Obama's success in winning in this nearly all-white state helped him begin to solidify his support among many black voters, who had previously though he had no chance of winning the nation's highest office because of his race.

The McCain campaign took issue with Obama's use of the word "vindicated."

"Hardworking families need a president whose faith in the American people is not predicated on his own election," said spokesman Tucker Bounds in an email. "At a time of mounting economic and foreign policy challenges, this country needs a president like John McCain who is experienced and tested -- and has proven his selfless faith in the American people."

Criticizing McCain
The speech before a crowd of about 25,000 at a park downtown was largely a repeat of the closing argument Obama has been giving across the battleground states of Ohio, Virginia, and Florida this week. But it included a tough criticism of McCain, casting him as a man who has changed since his first run for the White House.

"A couple of elections ago, there was a presidential candidate who decried this kind of politics and condemned these kind of tactics, and I admired him for it. He said, "I will not take the low road to the highest office in the land." Obama began. "Those words were spoken eight years ago by my opponent, John McCain. But the high road didn't lead him to the White House then, so this time, he decided to take a different route."

The Illinois senator, who was headed home to Chicago to spend part of Halloween with this daughters before heading to a rally in Indiana, predicted more "slash and burn" attacks from this opponent in the final days and said McCain had called him every name in the book, "everything but a child of God" because he was short on ideas.

As he has done all week and throughout his campaign, Obama talked about the need to get past the ideological debates that divide people -- this time using the idea that ideas are not Republican or Democrat -- to respond to a new McCain ad that uses Obama's own words.

"Just this morning, the McCain campaign put out an interesting ad. They put out an ad that showed me praising John McCain and Sen. Lieberman for their work on global warming -- as if there's something wrong with acknowledging when an opponent's said or done something that makes sense," he said incredulously. "I mean, I don't know exactly what they were thinking, but I do that all the time. I'm happy to give -- on torture, I think, John McCain has done the right thing. I think we need more of that attitude in Washington. We need more civility in Washington."

From MSNBC's Adam Verdugo
Ken Duberstein, former Republican chief of staff to President Reagan, told MSNBC's Norah O'Donnell today that the pick of Palin has undermined John McCain's credibility.
 
"What most Americans I think realize is that you don't offer a job, let alone the vice presidency, to a person after one job interview," Duberstein said. "Even at McDonalds you're interviewed three times before you're given a job."

Duberstein joins a list of prominent Republicans to criticize McCain's running mate pick -- including former Secretaries of State Colin Powell, who endorsed Barack Obama, and Lawrence Eagleburger, who is a McCain supporter.

It was later reported that Duberstein will vote for Obama.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Ben Weltman
Does it get any nastier than North Carolina politics? The day after Liddy Dole was up with Godless part 1, she's up with a second that the campaign says "is just a response ad to Hagan's response ad."

 

Hagan's response to Dole's original ad:

Dole's original ad:

From NBC's Mark Murray
The McCain campaign has released what appears to be its closing TV ad. It emphasizes his service to his country and his dedication to "a cause greater than my own."

The ad ends, "Don't hope for a stronger America. Vote for me."

[Youtube:I5G-PSWftRs]

Script:
JOHN MCCAIN: I've served my country since I was 17 years old.
And, spent five years longing for her shores.
I came home dedicated to a cause greater than my own.
We can grow our economy.
We will cut government waste.
Don't hope for a stronger America.
Vote for one.
Join me.
ANNCR: McCain.
John McCain: I'm John McCain and I approve this message.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Mark Murray
Despite public polling to the contrary, the McCain campaign claims to be "dead even" in Iowa.

"He has similar polling," Campaign Manager Rick Davis said of Obama during a conference call with reporters. "He's headed back there."

Obama held an event today in Des Moines and will take his daughters trick-or-treating in Chicago tonight. Iowa borders Obama's home state of Illinois. Obama also skipped an event in the state when he left the trail to visit his ailing grandmother in Hawaii.

A Mason-Dixon poll, conducted Oct. 22-23, showed Obama up 51%-40% in Iowa. A Marist College poll, conducted in the same period, showed Obama up 52%-42%. Research 2000, conducted Oct. 19-22, showed Obama up 54%-39%. There have been no reliable polls in the past week.

Davis and political director Mike Duhaime (formerly Giuliani's campaign manager) urged reporters to not underestimate their ground game. They cited the millions of dollars the Republican National Committee has poured in. Davis called it "historic" and said it has "exceeded any campaign ever." Davis said the RNC-McCain campaign have spent about $325 million. Duhaime said the RNC has 1.1 million volunteers.

McCain pollster Bill McInturff (formerly the Republican part of the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll) stressed that Republican voter intensity is on the rise and urged caution on some polling, because of what he believes is some have been showing too-high Democratic to Republican party identification advantage. He believes Party ID will skew about three to five points in favor of the Democrats on Election Day.

The Oct. 17-20 NBC/Wall Street Journal poll had a five-point Party ID advantage (41%-36% with 17% strictly Independent) for Democrats and showed Obama up 10 percentage points.

"I think this is going to be a close popular-vote race, a close electoral vote race," Davis said. "We see a close race today, doesn't matter what it was 10 days ago."

Davis continued: "We had a saying during the primary, 'Believe your eyes.' There was not a single poll that showed us up in a lot of the primaries; we're confident we can accomplish the same thing in the general election. we have no indication to the otherwise."

But that's not exactly true.

Before the New Hampshire primary: The NBC/Mason-Dixon poll had McCain up over Romney, 32%-24%; USA Today/Gallup: McCain 34%, Romney 30%, Huckabee 13%; CNN/WMUR: McCain 32%, Romney 26%, Huckabee 14%, Giuliani 11%, Paul 10%.

Before South Carolina: Three Republican polls showed McCain up with Huckabee narrowly trailing and Romney and Thompson battling for third.

Before Florida: Quinnipiac: McCain at 32%, Romney at 31%, Giuliani at 14%, and Huckabee at 13%; Miami Herald: McCain 25%-23% 

The NBC/Mason-Dixon poll (released 1/24) did have Romney up.

The Battlegrounds.
INDIANA: When asked what the campaign is doing in Indiana, since Palin has been there and Mccain has not, Davis said, "I have a sneaking suspicion that you'll see him before the campaign is over."

He then cited the efforts by Mitch Daniels, who "has towed a lot of the effort. We value Indiana; We know Obama has put in a lot of resources. I am really bullish we'll close strong there and be able to pick up a win there.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Davis dismissed polling in the state showing McCain down by as much as double digits.

"There is not one state that shows more of a disparity in public polling numbers," Davis said, adding, "John McCain has always closed incredibly strong in New Hampshire. We think New Hampshire has always been a battleground. We wouldnt go there just for nostalgia purposes. We want to win."

He continued, "New Hampshire is a tough state to poll." He also said he was confident in the field organization in the state and that on the issue of taxes, Granite Staters should prefer McCain.

"Frankly, since Joe the Plumber has come on the scene," Davis said, crediting Joe with getting Obama to admit to wanting to "spread the wealth" and that Obama's plan for "cutting taxes for 90% of people is just hogwash."

"The state of New Hampshire is going to be a barn burner," he said.

[EDITOR'S NOTE: An earlier version of this post inaccurately noted that Obama would be trick-or-treating in Iowa with his daughters.]

From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli

NEWARK, Del. -- Biden returned to his home state to kick off the stretch run to Election Day, telling fellow Blue Hens on the campus of the University of Delaware that Obama "will be the president this moment demands."

Biden, who also faces re-election here, compared his message today as vice presidential nominee to the one he brought to his alm mater during his first campaign in 1972, when he said that the problem facing the nation "has not been the failure of the people to meet the challenges before them, but rather it's been a failure of both the political parties to place the challenges honestly and squarely before the American people."

"I come today with greater confidence and passion about the ability of this country to change and make things better," he said. "I believe this country is ready to make the sacrifices necessary and to embrace the change we need to restore the hope of our people, and once again, once again become the beacon of light for the entire world. That's our responsibility, that's our possibilities, that's what we must do."

The speech was full of memories from Biden's time as a student, when he said some of the nation's most transformative events in American history occurred, leading up to his graduation in 1965. He also noted the curiosity that top officials from both campaigns, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe and McCain chief Steve Schmidt, attended the school. Neither graduated.

He also urged students to imagine a country with Obama as president, and compare it to what a President McCain might offer.

"I am certain, Barack Obama will … unite this country, because he'll appeal to America's better angels," he said. "I believe that John McCain, through the conduct of his campaign, unfortunately continues to think that he way you win is to divide. … Ladies and gentlemen, Barack will remind we are one nation, under God, we are indivisible.  Our best days are ahead of us, not behind us."

The electoral result in Delaware is hardly in doubt, but today's rally was meant to serve several purposes for the campaign. Biden urged students to volunteer to "help influence our neighbors to the north in Pennsylvania." It was also meant to draw additional coverage in the Philadelphia media market, though with a Phillies victory parade occurring, it may not get as much attention.

"Special thanks to all those of you who chose to be here instead of going to the Phillies victory parade," Biden said. Then pointing to his wife, a "rabid" fan, he said, "I'm particularly thankful to my wife, Jill, for choosing to be here."

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Carrie Dann
Simply ghoulish...

From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger

LATROBE, Pa. -- Palin appealed to "Casey Democrats" in Pennsylvania today, but the strongest appeal came from a local legend, former NFL football coach Mike Ditka.

"When you look at the next eight years in this country, there's gonna be some tough times, gang," Ditka said at an airport hangar rally. "We talk about change. Change from what, to what, and how? How you gonna do anything? Don't talk about what you're gonna do, prove you can do something!"

Ditka -- who grew up in nearby Aliquippa and played for Pitt -- cited the late John F. Kennedy, saying the country had swayed from the ideals of not asking what the country can do for you, but what you can do for the country.

"This is the land of opportunity; it's not a land of handouts," the coach said. "If you're willing to work, you can find a job."

Palin gave an abbreviated version of her stump speech, and continued to suggest Democratic victories in the White House and Congress would lead to a "far left" agenda that would include cuts to defense spending. She made her appeal to more moderate Democrats, known as "Casey Democrats," after the late Pennsylvanian governor Robert P. Casey, whose son, Sen. Bob Casey, Jr., is backing Obama.

"And with your help, and with the help of the good Casey Democrats here in Pennsylvania too, that's the spirit that John McCain and I will be able to bring to Washington," Palin said.

She also reiterated a line she has commonly used in Pennsylvania, reminding voters that Obama suggested they "cling to religion and guns" during the primaries.

"Don't quite know what to make of a candidate like that," she said. "We tend to prefer candidate that don't talk about us one way in Latrobe and then another way in San Francisco."

Palin was joined on stage by three of her children, including two in costume for Halloween. Daughter Piper was dressed as an ice princess and six-month-old Trig was in an elephant costume.

From NBC's Mark Murray and Lauren Appelbaum and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
In a conference call with reporters this morning, Obama manager David Plouffe announced that the campaign was going with ads in McCain's home state of Arizona, as well as in the red states of Georgia and North Dakota.

The ad that will air in Arizona is the campaign's positive closing ad, while the one that will run in Georgia and North Dakota tie McCain to President Bush on economic policy. 

Plouffe said that these three states were enough in the "realm of possibility" that the campaign wanted to put an "extra effort" in them in the final days. "We think things have tightened up in Arizona," he said. "As I mentioned, we are running a positive ad there. It is Sen. McCain's home state; we are cognizant of that. But we think a positive ad there can help make the case."

Plouffe added, "If someone else had been the Republican nominee, I think Arizona would be a core battleground, like its western neighbors. Obviously, it is Sen. McCain's home sate, so he is going to over perform there a little bit." 

Also on the call, Plouffe said the Obama campaign was looking strong in the state of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, and Virginia. And he said that they saw paths to victory in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, and Ohio.

What's more, Plouffe said the campaign is pleased with the early vote numbers they are seeing in several states, particularly in North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada.

From Chucky, Mark Boo-ray, Count Montanaro, and Black Cat Dann
*** Approaching the witching hour: We now have a good idea of where the two campaigns will spend their last four days until Election Day. Today, Obama campaigns in Iowa and Indiana, and in between the events he heads home to Chicago to spend part of Halloween with his daughters. On Saturday, he travels to Nevada (Henderson), Colorado (Pueblo), and Missouri (Springfield). On Sunday, it's an entire day in Ohio (Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati). And on Monday, per the New York Times, Obama hits Florida (Jacksonville), North Carolina, and Virginia (Manassas). As for McCain, he spends his entire Friday in Ohio; campaigns in Virginia and Pennsylvania on Saturday; then he's reportedly hitting New Hampshire; and on Monday, he's supposed to barnstorm through six states (including western ones like Nevada), with a final stop in -- get this -- Arizona.

Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on what the presidential candidates will be doing in their last few days of campaigning — and why.

*** Is McCain Michael Myers or Jason -- you just can't get rid of him? We've heard plenty of rhetoric that McCain is closing in on Obama's poll lead. But is that really happening? One poll definitely moved: In Fox's survey, Obama's lead is now just three points, down from nine last week (yet some have noted that the poll's weighting was changed). But other polls show a pretty static race. Gallup's registered-voter model has Obama up eight points, after it was nine the day before; the Washington Post/ABC tracking poll is unchanged, 52%-44%; and Hotline/Diageo has the race at 48%-42%, down one point from the day before. Oh, and then there is the brand-new New York Times/CBS poll, which has Obama ahead by 11 points, 51%-40%, essentially unchanged from its last poll that showed Obama with a 13-point lead. The good news for both campaigns: There are enough state polls out there -- including some by some questionable pollsters -- with enough diverse results that both campaigns can latch on to something that makes them feel better.    

*** Burying the competition: Was the Obama infomercial worth the millions the campaign spent on it? It looks like it. Almost 34 million people watched the 30-minute advertisement. In fact, as the Times reported, that total easily surpassed the audience for the final game of the World Series and last season's finale of American Idol. Also, the networks that ran the advertisement beat the one that didn't. Nearly 10 million people tuned into NBC to watch the ad; 8.6 million saw it on CBS; 7.1 million watched it on FOX; and the rest watched the infomercial on cable. By comparison, 6.2 million tuned into ABC's "Pushing Daisies." Poor "Pushing Daisies"; it's actually not a bad show, but it's one of those shows that would be more successful on HBO or Showtime. (We know, save the TV criticism for Shales, sorry Tom; but he does occasionally jump into politics, so fair play, right?).

*** Gore!!! The Terminator!!! Today, Al and Tipper Gore campaign for Obama in Florida on their single favorite day of the year Halloween (their VP Naval Observatory parties were legendary; Al has Frankenstein, the only guy who can go as Frankenstein and seem less stiff, bada bing!). The Gores will be stopping in West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale. Meanwhile, Arnold Schwarzenegger -- remember him? -- finally campaigns for McCain today in Columbus, OH. It was approximately four years to the day that he stumped for Bush in Ohio.

*** Scary Movie (for Republicans): We believe we called it, but Mississippi Sen. Roger Wicker (R) is now using a TV ad Hillary Clinton cut for Al Franken -- in which she argued that a Franken win would help Dems achieve a filibuster-proof majority -- against his Democratic opponent, Ronnie Musgrove. A new Wicker ad concludes, "Send a failed ex-governor to support Hillary's liberal agenda? Or a conservative with integrity and Mississippi values?" The clip Wicker uses is one of Clinton arguing for a filibuster-proof Senate; no mention of Franken, it's all about making Clinton the boogey-woman on this Halloween day. 

*** Exorcist III: The Defamation Lawsuit: In North Carolina, Kay Hagan (D) is now suing Elizabeth Dole (R) for defamation after the North Carolina senator ran a TV ad suggesting that Hagan said the words, "There is no God." Just when the Minnesota Senate race looked like it couldn't be topped for having the most twists and turns at the end, here comes North Carolina. By the way, there's some strange final-hours lawsuit news floating around that could stop Norm Coleman's momentum in this final weekend.

*** Obama's radio advantage is spooky: One of the under-written process stories of the cycle is Obama's dominance on the radio airwaves. You looking for a good explanation for why Obama is doing well in states with heavy driving populations (like Florida and Montana, for instance?), go to the radio dial, where he's outspending McCain by huge margins. It's taken Democrats YEARS to realize that radio is not a wasted media effort. Bush dominated Kerry on radio in '04 and well…

*** Fun (or scary) fact of the day: The last time a Democrat won the White House without winning Tennessee was in 1960. And that just happens to be the last time the state was wrong in picking the president. In fact, Tennessee has proven to be a pretty reliable bellwether in the past 100 years -- choosing the eventual winner all but twice since 1912. But Tennessee is even more important to the Republican ticket. No Republican has won the White House without Tennessee since 1924.

*** On the trail: McCain spends a second day on his bus tour through Ohio, hitting Hanoverton, Steubenville, New Philadelphia, and Columbus. Obama holds a rally in Des Moines, IA, heads to Chicago to spend part of Halloween with his daughters, and holds an evening rally in Gary, IN. Biden begins his day with a rally in Delaware (remember he's also running for Senate re-election there), and then travels to Ohio for events in Kettering and Lima. And Palin campaigns in Pennsylvania, visiting Latrobe and York.

Countdown to Election Day 2008: 4 days
Countdown to Electoral Vote Count: 69 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 81 days
 
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Political analyst Charlie Cook writes that, unless there's divine intervention, McCain is probably going down to defeat. "Say what you will about the campaign he has waged and the running mate he picked, but the collapse in credit markets and the stock market may very well have ended his chances of victory, notwithstanding anything he could have said or done differently. The senator from Arizona is a good man, who served his country admirably. And many would say that he deserved a better chance than he got."

As for Obama, Cook compares him to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, whom voters took a chance on after Hurricane Katrina. As I have watched the rise of Barack Obama and how he appears to be on the verge of being elected president, the Jindal analogy seems to ring true: People seem to want to take a chance. If my assumption of an Obama victory proves incorrect, this space will be filled next week with a huge mea culpa."

The latest New York Times/CBS poll has Obama leading by 11 points, 51%-40%. "A growing number of voters have concluded that Senator John McCain's running mate, Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska, is not qualified to be vice president, weighing down the Republican ticket in the last days of the campaign, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. All told, 59 percent of voters surveyed said Ms. Palin was not prepared for the job, up nine percentage points since the beginning of the month. Nearly a third of voters polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president, and those voters broadly favor Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee."

Other findings: "Some perceptions of race are changing, with a marked increase in the number of people who say they believe that white and black people have an equal chance of getting ahead in America today. Mr. McCain's focus on taxes, including his talk about Joe the Plumber, seems to be having some effect, as a growing number of voters now say Mr. McCain would not raise their taxes. Eighty-nine percent of people view the economy negatively, and 85 percent think the country is on the wrong track. Mr. Obama continues to have a significant advantage on key issues like the economy, health care and the war in Iraq."

"Now as Barack Obama and John McCain vie to become the next president, a promise of U.S. energy independence again has become a rallying cry on the campaign trail," the AP writes. "Is it possible, or even desirable? Many energy experts say it's not. People disagree on what energy independence means -- zero energy imports, or something less? And even if the United States were energy independent, would it be insulated from global oil price shocks, with oil priced in a global marketplace? Again, energy experts say don't count on it."

In its front-page centerpiece, the Boston Globe looks at the changing South. The racial divides that have buttressed Republican power in the South for decades appear to be crumbling in this year's elections, loosening the GOP's firm grip on the region, political analysts and independent pollsters say. "The South is still culturally conservative, and the deep South in particular is still challenging territory for Democrats, political specialists say. But demographic changes - including a migration of voters from other regions, as well as an increase in education and racial tolerance among some younger residents - have given Barack Obama and other Democrats an opening this year and are likely to change the electoral map in future elections, they said."

A new round of numbers from Allstate/National Journal released yesterday show Obama up in five states that went for Bush in 2000. In Colorado, he leads 48-44%; in Florida, it's 45-44%; in North Carolina, it's 47-43%; in Ohio, it's 48-41%; and in Virginia, it's 48-44%.

ARIZONA: McCain's last day of campaigning will end in Prescott, AZ. "He plans to attend the party's annual Victory Rally at approximately 9 p.m. Monday on the historic courthouse plaza. The rally starts at 6 p.m. and typically attracts Republican elected officials from around the state. McCain's campaign officials and Republican National Committee officials could not confirm for The Daily Courier Thursday that McCain would attend the event." 

As polls show McCain with a small lead in his home state, MoveOn has announced it's going up with a TV ad in Arizona. 

COLORADO: Another voter-identification alert. "And according to the Colorado Secretary of State's Office, as of Monday 35,620 first-time voters whose identity had not been verified requested mail ballots. Those voters should have been instructed to photocopy their driver's license or other identification and include it when they mailed back their ballots. If they fail to, the ballots will be treated as though they are provisional. That means county clerks will attempt after the election to verify the identity of the voter. If they can't, the ballots will be disqualified."  

FLORIDA: Could early voting put Obama over the top in Florida? "Despite the two-to-three-hour waits, the Florida numbers keep growing. As of the close of polls on Tuesday, more than 1.4 million Floridians had voted early, a figure that elections officials say could double by Sunday evening. In Miami-Dade County, where Birgin voted, 162,456 people had cast ballots through Tuesday, over 40% more than during the same period in 2004. In Palm Beach County, site of the disastrous butterfly ballot controversy of 2000, 56,685 people voted early in the first week, more than in the entire two-week period of 2004."

GEORGIA: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution calls the presidential race in Georgia a potential "nail biter," even though neither campaign is on the air in the state and no major candidate or surrogate events are planned. An Atlanta-based consultant suggests, "If the Obama campaign goes on the air with television advertising in this city, in this state, beginning this week to Election Day, Barack Obama will win Georgia." 

Is this a case where Obama just has too many opportunities and not enough time? Imagine how many folks he get to attend an Atlanta rally this weekend?

MINNESOTA: A new poll out of Minnesota shows a whopping 19-point lead for Obama there.

NEVADA: The latest RalstonFlash: "Democrats' lead in Clark is 51-32. Thursday's totals: 18,500 Democrats and 12,500 Republicans voted. More than 38,000 voted -- keeps getting bigger every day -- 388,000 total. Last day usually the largest turnout, so total is likely to get as high as 425,000 voters or so, maybe even higher. More than half of registered Democrats already have cast ballots -- 51 percent. Nearly 48 percent of Republicans have voted. In Washoe County, Democrats extended their lead, too, by about 200 votes overnight. In the urban areas, the Democratic lead over the GOP is now about 80,000 votes."

The Las Vegas Sun looks at the realities of each candidate's parallel Spanish-language campaign. "During these long months of presidential campaigning, the millions of Hispanic voters who read, watch and listen to media in Spanish have been gathering impressions that often differ in content and tone from those being communicated to the rest of the country in English."

NORTH CAROLINA: Just stunning -- the early vote turnout has surpassed 2 million voters in North Carolina. That's getting close 65% of the entire turnout in 2004.

OHIO: "With the presidential race in its final days, Republican John McCain campaigned across Ohio, struggling to gain ground against Democrat Barack Obama in a state that the Republican must win to have a chance of capturing the White House."

VIRGINIA: The Washington Post looks at how Mark Warner could help Obama in rural Virginia. But the paper also notes how some Republicans believe Warner is hiding from Obama in certain parts of the state. "Warner has shared a stage in Virginia with Obama seven times since securing the nomination in June. Three of those appearances were in rural Virginia."

More: "Still, Gilmore and his supporters have accused Warner of shying away from his support for the more 'liberal' Obama and say they share a fondness for raising taxes. 'Mark Warner is definitely hiding from Obama,' said Mike Wade, a Republican activist and chairman of the 3rd District Republican Committee in Hampton."

"[W]hen John McCain called out to Joe at a rally yesterday morning in Ohio, he was nowhere to be found, producing a rather awkward moment. The scene is already recorded on YouTube and being sent around by gleeful Democrats. 'Joe, I thought you were here today,' McCain said, looking around before recovering to say, 'Well, you're all Joe the plumbers, so all of you stand up.'"
 
The NY Post cover: "Plumb job." "McCain: I'll take Joe to DC with me."

This is an interesting new TV ad from the McCain camp. It shows a clip of Obama praising McCain on global warming.  

Speaking of ads… In this last week, the McCain campaign and the RNC are apparently keeping pace with Obama on spending. "The decision to finance a final advertising push is forcing McCain to curtail spending on Election Day ground forces to help usher his supporters to the polls, according to Republican consultants familiar with McCain's strategy."

More: "'The desire for parity on television comes at the expense of investment in paid boots on the ground,' said one top Republican strategist who has been privy to McCain's plans. 'The folks who will oversee the volunteer operation have been told to get out into the field on their own nickel.'" 

This is a decision that will get second-guessed by a number of folks if McCain doesn't pull off this election. There already are a number of Republicans we're hearing from that wish the McCain-RNC team would cut their ad spending in half and invest that money in a ground game.

The AP: "Obama's campaign has approached Illinois Rep. Rahm Emanuel about possibly serving as White House chief of staff, officials said Thursday as the marathon presidential race entered its final, frenzied stretch with a Democratic tilt… The Democrats who described the Obama campaign's approach to Emanuel spoke on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to be quoted by name. An aide to the congressman, Sarah Feinberg, said in an e-mail that he 'has not been contacted to take a job in an administration that does not yet exist. Everyone is focused on Election Day, as they should be.'"

RNC spokesman Alex Conant said in response, "Rahm Emanuel is working with Barack Obama to create the most unbalanced and partisan government in a generation. Emanuel is among the most vitriolic and partisan people in American politics. Reports that Obama wants him to be White House chief of staff undercut any claims to unity and bipartisanship, and should alarm every voter."

"Expect a turbocharged transition if Barack Obama wins, with a Treasury secretary and White House chief of staff named days after his election, Democratic sources told the Daily News Thursday."

"Barack Obama's campaign confirmed yesterday that [Zeituni] Onyango, who lives in a brick public housing complex on a side street not far from the headquarters of the Iron Workers, Local 7, is the senator's aunt," the Boston Globe reports. Onyango is Obama's paternal aunt, one of several children of the senator's grandfather, Hussein Onyango Obama. In his memoir, 'Dreams From My Father,' Obama refers to Onyango affectionately as Aunt Zeituni and recalls that she was the first person to greet him when he stepped off a plane for the first time in Kenya." She has also contributed in small donations to Obama's campaign.

The RNC has highlighted Obama telling NBC's Brian Williams that "I believe that the 2nd Amendment is actually an individual right." That's consistent with what Obama said after June's Supreme Court ruling overturning the DC gun ban. "I have always believed that the 2nd Amendment protects the right of individuals to bear arms," he said in a statement, "but I also identify with the need for crime-ravaged communities to save their children from the violence that plagues our streets through common-sense, effective safety measures." Yet, as the RNC pointed out, it's at odds a bit with a questionnaire Obama signed in 1996, when he said he agreed with Illinois legislation banning the sale, manufacture, and distribution of handguns.

COLORADO: Hey, remember Tom Tancredo? The Hill reports that he's got his eye on the Colorado governorship for 2010. Any idea what his campaign might focus on?

INDIANA: Incumbent Gov. Mitch Daniels, who once looked to be in some possible hot water, has widened his lead over his Democratic challenger to almost 20 points.

OHIO: Three third-party candidates debated in Cleveland last night.

NEW YORK: The GOP is pulling out of three races in New York State, and staying in only two of them -- the one held by Tom Reynolds (who is retiring) and the one held by Randy Kuhl (who has been a perennial target since his election).

The Wall Street Journal runs a piece about how Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is preparing for the transition. "Paulson -- who has an interest in seeing the bailout succeed -- plans to consult with the new administration on key decisions, according to a Treasury official. He is carving out office space at Treasury, assembling briefing books and has been in frequent contact with both Sens. John McCain and Barack Obama."

Time's Von Drehle has a "how they would lead" piece in Time, which delves into the troubles facing either new president.

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Carrie Dann
Simply ghoulish...

From NBC's Rehema Ellis

A few weeks ago a couple of friends sent me e-mails asking: Is it true that a voter could be turned away from the polls for wearing a campaign T-shirts or buttons?

My initial reaction was, this is just silly stuff.  

Then, I got to thinking, maybe what you wear could be interpreted as campaigning for a particular candidate and could cause a voter problems on election day.  I know from covering past elections, anything that could be misconstrued as electioneering is not allowed in the polling places.

So, just to answer my friends' concerns, I did some checking and found out, it is true.  In certain states you can be turned away from the polls if you're wearing something that shows support for a particular candidate or a ballot issue.

And as fate would have it, I was assigned to do stories on how to be best prepared to make your vote count.

What I found out was somewhat disappointing, albeit, not surprising.  There's lots of bad information, dumb rumors, and outright deceptive material going around to mess up the voting process.

Video: Rehema Ellis reports on debunking the myths that threaten to keep some people away from the polls.

What's worse, some of the underhanded tactics to scare or intimidate voters will probably work to disenfranchise some people especially first time voters,  minorities or the elderly. 

That ought to make all the rest of us mad.  Mad enough to make sure we share what we know about the process with our friends.  Mad enough to talk to folks who may be first time voters and make sure they've got all their information together.  Mad enough to help a senior citizen to the polls.  Mad enough to make certain the people who would try to mess up this election don't succeed. 

As a nation, America regularly answers the call from developing countries asking us to monitor their elections to make certain this democratic process of voting is fair and above reproach.

The least we can do for ourselves is --politics aside if you can-- help someone else exercise a right that many people all over the world wish they had.

Learn more about how to Make Your Vote count here: http://makingyourvotecount.msnbc.com

From NBC/NJ's Mke Memoli
WILLIAMSPORT, Pa. -- Joe the Biden as Joe the Closer?

Speaking in a town where Little League Baseball is king, Biden got a chance to crow about the new Major League Baseball World Series champions, the Philadelphia Phillies. It seems his wife is the real fan of the family, though, having braved the elements to see both nights of Game 5.

"I'm on the campaign trail, she says, 'Joe I'm going to the Series,'" Biden said during a rally at Lycoming College. "So on Monday night in the rain, hair matted down, sitting outside soaking wet, she sat through the whole deal. She went back to, to the game last night and was there."

The Delaware senator and Scranton native, meanwhile, didn't even watch the end of the game last night, taking off from Florida just about 20 minutes before the final out was recorded. His wife not only was there, but appeared on sports talk radio in Philadelphia this morning, talking quite a bit about closer Brad Lidge.

"Worries me a little, sister," he said to a nun in the audience.

When the two spoke, Jill kept talking about Lidge, who saved the game last night and ended a season in which he didn't blow a single save the entire year. Biden said his wife urged him to play a similar role for the Democratic ticket.

"She said, 'Joe, you have to do what this campaign needs, what Brad did that night. Lights out tonight. Lights out!"

Biden said he wasn't sure he could be as dominant as the Phillies right-hander but hopes to build on support in the Keystone State, which he said will "make the gigantic difference in who the next President of the United States of America is."

He also worked some baseball terminology into his remarks about the negative attacks coming from the McCain campaign.

"They don't want you to focus on the things that genuinely affect your lives," he said. "This is all designed, all designed to take your eye off the ball."

Joe the Plumber says McCain is 'real American'

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
ELYRIA, Ohio -- After looking for him to no avail at his Ohio bus tour stop this morning, McCain found Joe the Plumber in Sandusky this afternoon and then brought him along to Lorain Community College as well. Although both the candidate and his new traveling companion made mostly the same remarks at each stop, Joe added one key line.

"Get out there and vote; it's very important," Joe said, after extolling the virtues of being well informed. "You get out here and get the American people back in charge of our government. Hold politicians' feet to the fire when they mess up. That's what we're out here to do. All right? Smaller government, you know? As far as everyone else here, well, that's the question and go ask them to vote for a real American, John McCain."

At the first stop, Joe had simply encouraged the crowd to vote without telling them to support McCain. But before a much smaller crowd at the college, Joe was a bit more specific.

During his introduction, McCain also had many a kind word for Joe, who has become something of a mascot for his campaign. 

"So my friends, all the efforts we made in trying to make sure Americans understood that Sen. Obama wants to raise your taxes and he wants to increase your spending by $1 trillion, was the man who spoke for small businesses all over America Joe the Plumber," McCain said.

From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
ERIE, Pa. -- Palin painted her running mate Thursday as the more experienced candidate, who could balance both economic and foreign affairs, and said Obama was incapable of handling the multitude of challenges the next president will face.

"I think in this campaign a lot of Americans are realizing that a man can be admired in many ways, and he can show great promise, and yet still not be ready for the most important and demanding job in the world," Palin said after meeting with the campaign's national security advisors. "Rousing speeches can fill a stadium, but perhaps cannot keep this country safe though."

Palin used her first extensive comments on national security to raise the threat of a Democratic White House and Congress, saying they would cut 25 percent of defense spending.

"Let's not retreat from wars that are almost won," Palin said at Penn State University-Erie. "And let's not gut the defense budget, in a time of multiple conflicts and obvious dangers. And let's not entrust all the powers of the federal government to the one-party rule of Obama, Pelosi, and Reid." 

Palin first met briefly with a panel that included former homeland security secretary Tom Ridge and former CIA director James Woolsey. But her embargoed comments were released before the meeting began, suggesting the content of the discussion had no impact on her statement.

Palin said while the country may be focused on economic issues, the terrorism threat remains, and she said Obama has tried to change the focus in recent days, including with his half-hour primetime television advertisement Wednesday.

"Now, Barack Obama didn't have much to say in that long infomercial of his last night about the stakes in the wars that America is fighting, or about the need to support the troops in the field, or why he supported cutting off funding for our troops in the war," she said. "He prefers it seems to wrap his 'closing message' in a kind o of that warm and fuzzy commercial message -- that was scripted. He wants to soften the focus in these closing days, hoping that your mind won't wander to the real challenges of national security that I believe he is incapable of meeting."

She said the next president will need to be as focused on Osama bin Laden and Iran as the economic crisis.

"One of the requirements of presidential leadership is to understand that the 'dangers of the world' do not disappear when our attention is diverted," Palin said. "In fact, if we remain distracted for too long, they become much, much worse."

She also used comments Biden made recently and in the primaries that suggested Obama would be tested as commander in chief.

From NBC's Mark Murray
In an interview with NBC's Brian Williams, which will air in part on Nightly News tonight at 6:30 pm ET, Obama says that the current economic crisis is going to make the next president's job much more difficult. Obama also talks about the Supreme Court and his judicial philosophy.

WILLIAMS: Has the job of president-elect, whether you or John McCain, changed right now this year because of what we're going through?

OBAMA: Yes. It's gonna be a lot tougher. I don't think there's any doubt about that. We -- we know that the next president is likely to inherit a significant recession. We don't know yet how long and how deep it is and what actions we take over the next six to nine months could help determine how deep and how long.

But what that also means is that there's gonna be less revenue coming in because businesses aren't making as much money. It means that unemployment is gonna be higher. There's gonna be greater demands on social services. It means that, you know, dealing with our short-term deficit and our long-term debt is gonna be more difficult.

So there's no doubt that we are gonna have to spend a lot of time, whoever the next president is, focused on making sure that the financial rescue plan actually works the way it's supposed to, that it shores up our housing market, the taxpayers are protected and getting their money back, that it's not being used to enrich corporate CEOs.

The Supreme Court
WILLIAMS: Senator, a question about the Supreme Court. Everyone running for President always says, especially on the narrow issue of abortion rights -- no litmus test. It's said on both sides of the issue. And if that's true, if you're not going to call a future Justice into the Oval Office, if you're successful in this endeavor and bring up the subject, how then do you also avoid surprises? I don't think George H.W. Bush, 41, ever dreamed that in Justice Souter he was appointed a dependable liberal vote.

OBAMA: Right.

BRIAN WILLIAMS: And as -- Eisenhower for years called Justice Brennan, his biggest mistake in office. Two surprises that just come to mind.

OBAMA: Right. Well, look, I think that you -- what you can ask a judge is about their judicial philosophy. And as somebody who taught constitutional law for ten years, who actually knows a lot of the potential candidates for Supreme Court on the right as well as on the left 'cause I've taught with them or interacted with them in some way -- I can tell you that how a Justice approaches their job, how they describe the path of interpreting the Constitution, I think can tell you a lot.

And so my criteria, for example, would be -- if a Justice tells me that they only believe the strict letter of the Constitution -- that means that they possibly don't mean -- believe in -- a right to privacy that may not be perfectly enumerated in the Constitution but, you know, that I think is there.

I mean, the right to marry who you please isn't in the Constitution. But I think all of us assume that if a state decided to pass a law saying, 'Brian, you can't marry the woman you love,' that you'd think that was unconstitutional. Well, where does that come from? I think it comes from a right to privacy. That may not be listed in the Constitution but is implied by the structure of the Constitution.

So I can have that conversation with a judge. Now if it was a conservative who was listening to me right then says, 'See? You know, he wants to allow the Court to legislate.' Ninety-nine percent of cases the Constitution is actually gonna be clear. Ninety-nine percent of the cases are statutes or congressional intent is gonna be clear. But there are gonna be one percent, less than one percent of real hard cases.

WILLIAMS: Second Amendment last term.

OBAMA: Second Amendment last term is a great example, where the language of the Second Amendment is not perfectly clear. I believe that the Second Amendment is actually an individual right. I think that's the better interpretation. You can make the other argument. And so I can have those kinds of discussions with a Justice without getting into the particulars of -- is Roe versus Wade, as currently outlined, exactly what you believe? Or do you believe that the DC gun law should have been overturned? And I think Sen. McCain, if ends up being the nominee [sic], could have those same conversations as well.

From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones

SARASOTA, Fla. -- At an early vote rally in a county President Bush won the last two elections, Obama talked about new data showing an economic slowdown, saying they were a result of the failed, trickle-down economic theories that McCain would continue.

"If you want to know where John McCain will drive this economy, just look in the rearview mirror. Because when it comes to our economic policies, John McCain has been right next to George Bush. He's been sitting there in the passenger seat ready to take over every step of the way," Obama told about 13,000 people at a baseball stadium. "At a moment like this, the last thing we can afford is four more years of the tired, old economic theory that says we should give more and more to billionaires and big corporations and hope that prosperity trickles down to everyone else."

Video: Barack Obama tells a Florida rally that John McCain has been in the passenger seat as George Bush drove the economy down.

"The last thing we can afford," he added, "is four more years where no one in Washington is paying attention to what's going on Wall Street and lobbyists kill common-sense regulations. Those are the theories that got us into this mess. They haven't worked. It is time to change drivers. It is time to have somebody else at the wheel."

McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds responded, "If voters looked into Barack Obama's rearview, they'd see that he supported every one of Washington's wasteful spending bills and has voted for higher taxes 94 times in just three years. His economic proposals are driven by job killing tax increases and out-of-control spending -- Barack Obama would drive this sputtering economy off a cliff."

In his speech today, Obama said the McCain campaign's criticism of his plan to give tax cuts to the middle class instead of the wealthy -- so that "everybody's got a shot" -- amounted to making a "virtue out of selfishness." And he again linked his own economic philosophy to that of Bill Clinton, as he did at a rally with the former president last night in Kissimmee, FL.

"The average working family is $2,000 poorer now than when George Bush took office," he said. "Bill and I were in Orlando last night. When Bill Clinton was president, the average wage and income went up $7,500. So, I've got an economic plan that's similar to Bill Clinton's. John McCain's got an economic plan that's similar to George Bush's. So all you have to do is look and see what works and what doesn't. This is not complicated. We've done the experiment."