From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
EMMETSBURG, Iowa -- In Edwards' third event of the day, a caucus-goer at the Pizza Ranch here asked a question that has been on everyone's mind: How can Edwards win the presidency within the limits of public financing?

The man said he had heard from other campaigns, specifically naming Michelle Obama, that Edwards would not have the finances to sustain his candidacy. David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, hosted a conference call and sent out a related spreadsheet this morning. Part of the spreadsheet crunched Edwards' campaign funding numbers, explaining that because the former North Carolina senator accepted public financing and its limitations, he would not have the funding to sustain his candidacy through the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 25.

Edwards jumped at the chance to counter.

"We have plenty of money to run a serious campaign," he said, "but I just want to say how unbelievably weak it is to be arguing that you should be the candidate because you have more money than the other candidate. I mean, really -- does that convince anybody that that's who you should caucus for? You shouldn't even be here if that's what you're looking for!

"I mean, we could all just have our campaign fundraising events, send the totals in, the elections are over before you ever cast a vote! I don't think that's the way this works. I think you get to actually decide who you think is strongest, who has the fight, who has the ideas, and who's ready to be President of the United States. And I think that's exactly what's going to happen on Thursday night when you go to caucus."

Pressed further by reporters after the event, Edwards elaborated.

"If we are able to win the nomination," he said, "and we're obviously moving in very strong right now, then what that means is, I will have beaten two celebrity candidates who between them have spent $200-250 million because of the strength of this message of stopping corporate greed, restoring the middle class, making the promise of America available to every American in a very personal way.

"It's because that message will have driven right through all of that money. And once you -- once I'm the nominee, if I've beaten them, having been outspent in ways that I just spoke about, taking on the Republican who's carrying George Bush's baggage will be a piece of cake. And I will have plenty of money, and I will have the bully pulpit, and I will have principled, convicted stands, which is what you need to be able to win the presidency."

But note this from a Sept. 28 Washington Post article: "While leading Howard Dean's campaign for the Democratic nomination in 2003, [Edwards adviser Joe] Trippi told The Washington Post that this 'campaign believes that any Democratic campaign that opted into the matching-funds system has given up on the general election,' Trippi said. 'There is absolutely no way you can sustain the hits that are going to come from now until August with a $45 million limit.'"

From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Edwards, electable? Not so much, according to a blistering memo out this afternoon from Biden Communications Director Larry Rasky.

"[T]he evidence that Edwards is more electable is at best thin and is probably misleading," Rasky writes in the memo, which reads more like it is straight out of the RNC's research shop. "The first question mark is that Edwards was unlikely to hold onto to his North Carolina Senate seat in 2003 when he decided not to run for re-election. In short, if John Edwards is so electable, why couldn't he be re-elected in his home state?"

He then hits Edwards for not carrying his home state as part of the Kerry-Edwards 2004 presidential ticket, and that they even lost Edwards' home county.

"At the end of the day, despite repeated assurances, Kerry-Edwards also failed to win a single southern state," Rasky writes. "So it's understandable that this time around, even John Edwards's own people are acknowledging his vulnerability: Rob Tully, a former state party chairman and Edwards backer, said "if he doesn't win Iowa or come very close this time, 'we're done.'"

Rasky even writes, "[T]here are serious doubts about Edwards' message" before pivoting to why he thinks Biden is more electable. He claims Biden "has set a 15-18 red state strategy" and that "Sen. Biden's victories have also come during times of strong Republican presence in the Delaware."

The memo ends with, "These are the facts. Wishing you all a happy and thoughtful New Year.  Larry."

I guess Edwards won't be getting many of those Biden second-choice voters. Biden has been polling fifth in Iowa consistently, including in the latest MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll, in which he has just 8%, trailing Edwards (24%), Clinton (23%), Obama (22%) and Richardson (12%).

Here's the memo:

DECEMBER 31, 2007
TO:                  INTERESTED PARTIES
FROM:            LARRY RASKY
COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR
BIDEN FOR PRESIDENT
RE:                 THOUGHTS ON ELECTABILITY
 
In the closing days of this race for the Democratic nomination for President, voters and reporters alike have heard former Sen. John Edwards make the same electability case over and over again.  Edwards argues that with his southern roots he can compete in more states than any other Democratic candidate in the general election. 

Last week in New Hampshire, Edwards said: "I think people want someone they know can win in the general election.  I think the evidence is overwhelming that I'm very strong, the strongest general election data. . . . I'm the one Democrat who has won in a Red State, who can go into any place in America and be successful." 

However, the evidence that Edwards is more electable is at best thin and is probably misleading.

The first question mark is that Edwards was unlikely to hold onto to his North Carolina Senate seat in 2003 when he decided not to run for re-election.  In short, if John Edwards is so electable, why couldn't he be re-elected in his home state?

Indeed, Jennifer Duffy of the Cook Political Report noted at the time, "Edwards is not that strong." [The Herald-Sun (Durham, NC), 2/16/03]  Research 2000's poll for the Raleigh News and Observer taken from July 13-16, 2003 showed that Edwards's re-election number stood at 34 percent.  In that same poll, only 45 percent of North Carolinians approved of Edwards's job as their junior Senator.  

Edwards fared no better as the Democratic Party's Vice Presidential candidate in 2004.  After being selected as John Kerry's running mate, Edwards said, "I think we will be very competitive in the South, particularly in those states in which national Democrats need to be competitive to be successful." [Associated Press, 7/10/04]  Unfortunately, Edwards failed to carry his home state.  Edwards lost his home county—Moore County—by  more than eleven thousand votes, 24,714 to 13,555.  He also lost his hometown by more than 300 votes, 506 to 191. 

At the end of the day, despite repeated assurances, Kerry-Edwards also failed to win a single southern state. So it's understandable that this time around, even John Edwards's own people are acknowledging his vulnerability: Rob Tully, a former state party chairman and Edwards backer, said "if he doesn't win Iowa or come very close this time, 'we're done.'" [USA TODAY, 12/12/07]

In addition, there are serious doubts about Edwards' message.  A recent Edwards ad asserts, "It's time to tell the truth.  These big corporations and their greed, they are stealing your children's future. We will never change this country unless we are willing to take those people on."  Some are arguing that this will not go over well with general election voters.  In a column, respected political analyst Stuart Rothenberg wrote, "Edwards certainly would dispute that there is an inherent contradiction between his populist rhetoric and his alleged middle class appeal. But his approach to problems is likely to frighten many voters, including most middle class Americans and virtually all Republicans." [The Rothenberg Political Report, 12/31/07]

So who has what it takes to carry the southern vote? Well, with so much riding on his southern electability argument, "native son" John Edwards actually fares only 4 points ahead of Joe Biden in the most recent Insider Advantage poll out of South Carolina. And if one thing is certain in the 2008 race, it's that no Democrat will win using the same 20-plus-five strategy that has failed in the last two elections.  In this general election, Joe Biden has set a 15-18 red state strategy, which not only sets him apart from the top tier, but gives him the most realistic shot at victory next November.

Furthermore, Joe Biden has historically and consistently won by large margins.  In 1972, Joe Biden staged a huge upset, unseating two-term Sen. Caleb Boggs, a popular former congressman and governor. Since then, Joe Biden has consistently won re-election by over 15 percentage points, and always garnering more than 57 percent of the vote.
 
Sen. Biden's victories have also come during times of strong Republican presence in the Delaware, in the form of both a Republican Senator (William Roth) and Republican Governors (du Pont, Castle and Wolf). Rep. Mike Castle consistently wins statewide, earning 57 percent in the last election. The Delaware State House has split leadership, with Democrats controlling the Senate and Republicans controlling the House.

These are the facts.
 
Wishing you all a happy and thoughtful New Year.  Larry

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
INDEPENDENCE, IA -- After initially refusing to respond to Huckabee's attack ad bait-and-switch, Romney made the following statement outside Bill's Pizza here this afternoon:

"You know in reaction to the press conference Gov. Huckabee had today, I think that I'd note that I'm running a serious campaign, that there are serious issues that face the country at this time. I want to bring change to Washington -- that's what my campaign is about. The press conference which Gov. Huckabee had today, I think, is confusing to the people of Iowa. On the one hand, he wants to run a positive campaign; and on the other hand, he shows a negative campaign ad and hopes that people promote it and provide it to the public through the earned media. And I think that's a very confusing and puzzling message. With that, who wants a slice of pizza?"

Following the news that Huckabee showed an attack ad on Romney to reporters this afternoon but changed his mind on airing it in Iowa, Romney's spokesman said to inquiring reporters that the governor would not make a statement on it, that he had already given his avail for the day.

Pressed again at a stop in Manchester along his bus tour route, spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom explained that it didn't necessarily make sense for Romney to respond to Huckabee's swift shift in tactics.

But a spate of reporters traveling with Romney stormed out of the event to greet Romney after the event at the doors of the Mitt Mobile before he departed for the next stop to demand a response. "I do all the responses that Eric let's me organize," Romney said. "So if you talk to Eric, I'll be happy to chat."

Meanwhile, the national press staff had been busily shooting out e-mails panning Huckabee for his "bizarre" moment and "meltdown."

But back on the press bus, the Iowa press secretary announced that the governor was to make unscheduled stop in Independence. According to Tim Albrecht, there had been a stop planned there, but it was pulled two days before in order to free up time. There was some buzz that not all of the supporters who were going to go got word of the cancellation, and so the campaign decided to forge ahead with the stop to make sure that no one who still showed up would be disappointed.

The governor made a quick run through the restaurant and picked up a few pizzas as the press bus pulled up for the "photo op." But as some were exiting, one reporter shouted back to others at the back of the bus to bring cameras because "he's going to make a statement about Huckabee."

After he made his statement, which was less than a minute long, a man who billed himself as a former member of the Arkansas legislature and a Republican started shouting questions about abortion to Romney as he climbed back aboard the Mitt Mobile. After he shut the door, a couple of the Romney campaign staffers offered the man some pizza -- which he refused.

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
JEFFERSON, IA -- "Whoop 'em." That's what Obama promised to do to prevent Republicans from "stealing" the election in 2008.

A voter here told Obama that he believed that elections in 2000 and 2004 had been "stolen" by the Republicans and wanted a promise from Obama that he would fight any dirty tricks in 2008.

Obama responded, "I intend to whoop 'em so good that it won't even be close, and they can't steal the election. It won't be 47 on one side, 47 on the other," Obama said of his candidacy.

"I promise you this: If for any reason this thing is close, we will fight it tooth and nail to the end because too much is at stake in this election. Too much is at stake," Obama added.

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
DES MOINES, IA -- As if Huckabee's day wasn't strange enough, immediately following his anti-attack-ad news conference, a scheduled trip to his campaign headquarters here was disrupted by dual demonstrations that prevented the candidate from entering the building. The ordeal ended with three arrests and a mob of confused journalists forced to find another way inside the building.

Paul's Iowa campaign offices are directly adjacent to Huckabee's, and as journalists arrived to cover what was supposed to be an innocent photo opportunity of Huckabee greeting some campaign volunteers, they were surprised to find dozens of Paul supporters crowding the sidewalks chanting, "Ron Paul revolution, legalized the Constitution."

Simultaneously, an unrelated group of local anti-war activists surrounded the entrance to Huckabee's headquarters, while three members of the group staged a sit-in of sorts in the office lobby. The police were already on the scene when most of the media arrived, but the dueling demonstrations -- combined with a multitude of TV cameras -- presented a formidable entryway when the governor's campaign bus pulled in across the street.

The bus remained parked across from the campaign office for 10-15 minutes as the demonstrators shouted for the governor to come out and address their concerns -- which for the anti-war group meant answering the question, "Who would Jesus bomb?"

Finally, the bus pulled away and turned around the corner, after which the police led the three trespassers out of the campaign's office and into a paddy wagon parked in the street. The leader of the anti-war protest –- whom local journalists say is a former priest who is now a regular inmate at the local police station due to his disruptive activism -- lauded the three arrestees as heroes.

As the commotion began to die down, Huckabee slipped in through a side door and several members of the traveling press corps who had been following him for weeks were invited to watch as the governor met with several volunteers on the office's second floor. Soon the small group of media ballooned as a stream of camera crews found their way upstairs and invaded the meet and greet.

At this point, wife Janet Huckabee was heard to say, "I thought this was supposed to be a private meeting." Well, if portions of the event were supposed to be private, that didn't last long. Soon the media nearly equaled the number of volunteers on the office's second floor. The protests died down outside, and members of the press were allowed to mingle with volunteers as Huckabee conducted interviews with several local news outlets. But following his appearance on three morning shows this morning, a run-turned media circus, an unconventional press conference and a mob of demonstrators blocking the entrance to his headquarters, maybe the New Year couldn't come soon enough for Mike Huckabee.

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
DUBUQUE, Iowa -- With a newfound confidence that was also on display yesterday but somewhat lacking on Friday and Saturday, Romney smiled and laughed his way through a news conference with reporters this morning after his first campaign stop in Bellevue, Iowa.
 
He began by expressing the critical nature of pardons and commutations -- something he's been hitting Huckabee over the head with -- and informed reporters that he established a 10-to 12-page set of guidelines for issuing them as governor and said he would do the same as president. And indirectly hitting Huckabee, he added: "Clearly the importance of this topic suggests as we consider something of this nature that we do so on a thorough and complete and comprehensive level, and we don't make pardons on a capricious and arbitrary basis."
 
His first question centered on Huckabee's counterattacks on pardons and Romney's strictness on the issue. "I guess that if I were Gov. Huckabee, I don't know that I'd be raising the issue of commutations and pardons," Romney responded. "A record of 1,033 pardons and commutations, and so far as I know, without any guidelines -- simply done on the basis of what he may have thought was appropriate. It's not a process which should be pursued nationally." Despite previous attempts to tie McCain to Democrats on taxes, Giuliani to Democrats on social issues, and now mentioning former President Clinton in his opening remarks, Romney told reporters later in the session that he had no intention of drawing a parallel between Clinton and Huckabee. 
 
As Romney's chief competitor in the Hawkeye State, Huckabee has been giving Romney a run for his money -- literally. But Romney's boundless optimism seems to correspond to narrowing polls that show him within striking distance, if not in the lead, of the former Arkansas governor.
 
Asked if he has internal data showing a rise, he said, "You know as I go across Iowa, it's very clear, I see person after person who comes up to me and says, 'Look I was uncertain of what I was going to be coming out of this, but I've been watching the last few days, and I'm with you.' And I hear that time and time again. My people are hearing that."
 
And although he said he wouldn't forecast the outcome in Iowa, he said in the same sentence that he thinks he will ultimately be victorious in the state.
 
After Obama spent some time yesterday contrasting himself with Romney, Romney's camp shot back with an attack on his fiscal policy. Asked about that this morning, Romney laughed and said "Oh good." And then of Obama's attack on him today, he said, "I heard." He chuckled and said, "This vicious campaign; he's got to stop. Barack Obama said I'm not as tall as he is. And this has just got to stop."
 
He called Obama "a good guy" but said he hadn't heard Obama's comments about him on immigration and went on to discuss his agenda on the issue.
 
NOTE: One thing that's hardly a surprise? Romney won't be releasing any data about his fourth-quarter fundraising until the middle of January -- after the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary are things of the past. "I'm not going to be putting together forecasts and announcements until they're required by the government," he said.

From NBC's Christina Jamison and Mark Murray
KEOKUK, IA – After yesterday's day without fireworks on the Clinton campaign trail, the press corps assumed this morning it'd be more of the same. On the press bus this morning, spokesman Jay Carson said we'd see "no fireworks" and that we'd see a composed and confident candidate hammering home her message to Iowans.  

Well, the candidate was certainly calm and composed, but there were definitely some fireworks. Early in the stump speech, Clinton said her leading rivals, Obama and Edwards, were talking about each other and not the issues. "My two leading opponents have spent a lot of time right now kind of, you know, talking about each other," she said. "I'm gonna keep talking about the people of Iowa and the people of America."
 
Clinton also addressed the fiery talk of special interests in the campaign, saying that it makes for "great applause lines." But she said that talk wasn't solving problems.

"It's something you don't have to do by yelling and screaming," she said. "Save your energy, get the job done." She went on to say, "Instead of like, generating a lot of heat, rolling your hands, jumping up and down, let's just sit down and figure out how we're gonna beat them." (Of course, in November, Clinton memorably unveiled the slogan, "Turn up the heat."

When later asked if Clinton was referring to Obama or Edwards with those comments, Carson said no. "She's continuing to focus on laying out her positive vision," he said. "The last thing she's going to do is get down in a negative back-and-forth with any of her opponents."

Clinton also stressed the importance Iowa plays in the election process. While she's mentioned this in the last couple of days of her stump speeches, she seemed to take extra care to mention more than once her enthusiasm for the Iowa caucuses, perhaps in response to campaign surrogate and Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's comments to the Columbus Dispatch that the Iowa caucuses "make no sense" and that they are "hugely undemocratic" because the process "excludes so many people."

"You're here for a reason," Clinton said. "You're here to make up your minds about who you think should be the next president. And Iowa gets to go first for a purpose, because you take this so seriously."  She continued, "I am so impressed as I travel across the state the way people come and watch all of us and listen and compare notes with family members and friends."

Clinton also took five questions from the audience members, ranging from her stance on abortion to how she plans to pay for her initiatives and lead in toys.

From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
STORM LAKE, Iowa -- At Buena Vista University this afternoon, Edwards continued using a line he debuted yesterday aimed at crossover appeal to voters from other parties.

"Corporate greed -- it's not just stealing the future of Democrats' children; it's stealing the future of Independents' children, of Republicans' children," he told a smaller-than-usual crowd about halfway through his stump speech. "This destruction of the middle class -- it's not just happening to Democrats; it's happening to Republicans. It's happening to Independents. Here's why that matters. Because next fall if you have a presidential candidate who's standing up with some strength and passion in a personal way to do something about this corporate greed there is no place in America that people don't believe this."

This New Year's Eve marks Day 5 of Edwards' final eight-day swing through Iowa before the caucuses. His family is traveling with him, though only daughter Emma Claire and son Jack made an appearance in Storm Lake. Roxanne Conlin, Edwards' Iowa co-chair, and Ben "Cooter" Jones, a former congressman and Dukes of Hazzard star who has campaigned extensively with Edwards, provided the events' introductions.

Earlier in the morning, Edwards made the TV rounds as well, interviewing with the Today Show, Mika Brzezinski on MSNBC, the Early Show and CNN.

*** UPDATE *** Edwards: 'Dealmaker doesn't stand for anything' 
SPENCER, Iowa -- Asked how he would work with members of Congress, Edwards said that three things make an effective president: a person who has the backbone to stand up to special interests, one who can work respectfully even with opposing members of Congress and one who can unite the American people behind a cause.

In explaining the second point, the former North Carolina senator made an interesting distinction here at Iowa Lakes Community College.

"Second, you have to from Day One facilitate and work in a respectful way with members of Congress, including people from the other side because you cannot get anything accomplished if you don't do that," he began. "But one thing that people misunderstand is they think sometimes that the best president is a dealmaker. The best president is one that they respect. If they respect you, if they know you know what you're doin', that you're working hard and you're principled -- in other words, that you have real principles that you will not walk away from, and you respect them, that's always the most effective president. Not the dealmaker. Not the dealmaker. They know the dealmaker doesn't stand for anything."

From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
DES MOINES, Iowa -- Peace protestors mixed with Ron Paul supporters prevented Huckabee from entering his Des Moines headquarters through the front door. Three people were arrested and then reporters were allowed back in to shoot footage of Huckabee glad-handing volunteers in his headquarters. This was immediately following his 2:00 p.m. ET new s conference.

More info on this shortly...

From NBC's Mark Murray, NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
DES MOINES, Iowa -- In what has to be one of the most bizarre political press conferences in recent times, Huckabee told a packed room of reporters that he was pulling a negative TV ad his campaign had produced to respond to Romney's attacks.

"The cookie cutter approach says you get hit, you hit back," Huckabee told the reporters, adding, "I think that the Washington way often has been effective. But there may be a better way, and I hope that we can prove that's exactly the case."

Then -- via a laptop projector -- he showed the ad anyway to the several dozen journalists in the room.

Adding to the spectacle, the sound of the ad didn't work for several minutes -- until the press got to hear it one time. The ad, which his campaign said cost $30,000 to produce, begins with Huckabee speaking to the viewer. "I'm Mike Huckabee, and I approve this message, because Iowans have a right to know the truth about Mitt Romney's dishonest attacks on me and even an American hero, John McCain."  
 
Then an announcer takes over. "Romney's record? Over $700 million in new taxes. Left office with a deficit. No executions. Supported gun control. And Romney's government mandated health plan provided a $50 co-pay for abortion."
 
Huckabee has the last word. "If a man is dishonest to obtain a job, he'll on the job," he says in the ad. "Iowans deserve better."

"Hopefully, this is an ad that you will see just in this room," he told the reporters.

Asked why he would announce he's pulling a negative ad -- but show it anyway -- Huckabee replied, "If I didn't show it, you'd say I never had [the ad]."

On his decision to pull the ad, Huckabee added, "If it hurts me, it hurts me... I'm taking a risk here. I know I am. If it completely makes it so he pulls away in a dramatic way, then I'll probably be the last guy to ever do this. But I'd like to be the first one to ever try.

"Thursday night, I will let you know if it was smart."

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
One thing that stood out in Tim Russert's interview with Obama on Meet the Press Sunday was Obama's claim that he and his wife Michelle have more in common with average Americans now than they would eight years from now.
 
At a town hall in Williamsburg, Iowa, two days ago, Obama said Michelle had told him, "We're not doing this again." But he quickly contextualized the comment saying it was a reflection of her belief that they would "have lost a little bit of touch with what ordinary families are going through. We'll still be good people hopefully but we'll be in a different orbit, in a different circle" if they were to run four to eight years from now.
 
"She talked about how just five years ago, we had just paid off all our student loans, after 10 years, from law school," Obama said. "We hadn't started a college fund for the kids. We were still living in a condo that was too small. I was still doing the grocery shopping on the weekends. My wife was still shopping at Target. She still does."
 
The comment played into a larger theme that Obama has woven into the stump in recent days, where he projects himself as a common man, someone who, until the multimillion dollar sales of two books, was struggling to meet his mortgage payments, pay off his and his wife's student loans and save for his children's education.
 
It was a  theme that had come up from time to time, as Obama tried to reach out to working women through economic roundtables, he would talk about how his and Michelle's marriage was strained at times as the two struggled to care for two young children and meet the demands of their careers.
 
But now there's a regular addition to Obama's stump speech, where he tells the crowd that he was raised by a single mother with modest means and little privilege.  He openly says that his father left his mother when he was only 2 years of age, and it was only through the power of "hope" that he made it this far.
 
"I was born to a father from Kenya, a mother from Kansas," Obama said. "My father left when I was 2. My mother had to raise me in often times difficult standards."
 
He added, "So I know what it's like for single moms today all throughout Iowa."
 
Obama is taking a page from Edwards, who has long used a pull-yourself-up-by-the-bootstraps personal story. (How could anyone forget he is a son of a mill worker?) Obama's good fortune -- from best-selling books -- is relatively recent compared to that of Edwards, a famed trial lawyer with reportedly the largest house in wealthy Chapel Hill, N.C. So, Obama would hope that can help him appear to have more in common with middle-class Americans.
 
The common-man themed addition also helps to downplay the notion that the academic Obama is strictly the candidate of latte drinking liberals -- that he appeals to the smaller college-educated sect of the Democrat party rather than the larger union-based, working class sect which often tilts elections, as Ron Brownstein from the National Journal has argued.

Obama has long had a strain of populist rhetoric in his stump speech, though his re-tooled closing argument plays up the stories of ordinary working Americans as he decries corporate profits criticizing "golden parachutes for CEOs," who dump the pensions of their own employees before taking a cut in their bonuses.
 
In stressing his personal story, Obama is reaching out to voters in a way that Edwards has successfully done so before him, making an empathetic rather than just an intellectual appeal.

But As Edwards and Obama compete for voters, there's no question that there's a need for Obama to reach out. A recent Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows Edwards pulled into first from third among likely Democratic caucus-goers whose annual household income was less than $40,000, winning about one-third of this group. Obama also gained four points in that group, moving four percentage points to 27% with this group of voters.
 
Lately Obama also likes to throw in the line, "I'm a black man named Barack Obama running for president; I have to be hopeful." It generates a lot of laughs, but it once again seeks to underscore the idea that like the "average" American, Obama's potential still has a lot to do with luck, hard work and a good attitude. 
 
And in that message of commonality, he hopes to seek the Iowans that could actually make his future, at least, a brighter one.

From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Elizabeth Edwards defended her husband on the accusation that one of his biggest fundraisers is an oil lobbyist. "Campaigns go to journalists and try to feed them stories to try to get them to have us talk about things other than the issues," she said on MSNBC this morning. "What they brought up is someone who is a state lobbyist in a state in which we do not live, does not lobby the federal government, has never tried to lobby John, but likes John's policies and has tried to raise money for him."
 
"That's not what John's talking about," she continued. "What John's talking about is not taking money from the same people who then turn around and try to lobby you to get a result. So John has never taken money from a federal lobbyist or from a special interest PAC who might try to convince him to vote a particular way."
 
Mrs. Edwards did not stop there, taking advantage of the opportunity to attack Clinton. "Coming from the Clinton campaign, who has taken more money from the health care industry, more money from defense contractors, than any other candidate in the race -- that's a little bit disingenuous," Edwards said. "You hear the same thing from other campaigns, where they are trying to get you off message. John is and always has been a fighter against the kinds of influence you see in Washington. And his statement that he will not have a lobbyist in his White House is a real statement that his division between the kind of influence for corporations and his obligation to represent and fight for the people of this country ... is total. That's the reason he made the statement. It is not rhetoric. It is real, and it is also symbolic, of his complete dedication to this ideal."

From NBC's Chuck Todd
DES MOINES, Iowa -- An email from the Club for Growth this morning criticizing John McCain over his declaration last night that if given the chance he would again vote against the Bush tax cuts reminded me that a number of third-party special interest groups (on both sides of the spectrum) have a lot on the line in Iowa, New Hampshire and beyond.

The Club, in particular, is watching a potential nightmare scenario brewing in the two early states as the GOP candidates they like the least -- Mike Huckabee and John McCain -- have a shot at sweeping the first two states. The Club went negative on Huckabee early and often and all that's happened as his numbers have shot up. That said, the negative economic info the Club has provided for the public record has been used by Romney so they have to feel pretty good about that.

That said, if Huckabee and McCain win Iowa and New Hampshire and then end up having a 2-way showdown for the GOP nod, it could spell the end of the Club's effectiveness as a conservative third party advocacy group. They Club knows how to make waves but they've always struggled to notch victories outside of House races. If the Club ends up with Huckabee and/or McCain egg on its face in 2008, will that mean some other Republican candidates stop taking their calls?

But the Club isn't the only special interest group with a lot riding on the results of Iowa and New Hampshire. On the Democratic side, three groups in particular have put their money and resources where their mouth is, including: AFSCME, SEIU and EMILY's List.

Nobody probably has more to worry about than AFSCME's Gerald McEntee. A second straight losing endorsement could seriously jeopardize McEntee's clout in the union movement. Maybe that's why McEntee is doubling down by shipping some 200+ organizers to Iowa on Clinton's behalf and being the only Democratic-leaning group to go negative on any candidate (in their case, Obama's the target).

SEIU didn't endorse a candidate nationally but many of the state and local affils have poured money into a 527 on behalf of Edwards. Should Edwards not win Iowa or should his effort not catch fire post-Iowa, this could also hurt Andy Stern's influence in the labor movement, particularly since, like McEntee, he backed the wrong horse in 2004 (Howard Dean).

And then there's EMILY's List. Early on, there was an expectation that they would be a serious player for Clinton here in Iowa. But we're having a hard time finding out exactly how they are helping. Some Clinton partisans I've talked too have been disappointed by the group's efforts. But in defense of EMILY's List, this is there first time making a serious effort on the presidential level and they may find out they are far more effective sticking to their House and Senate bread and butter.

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
Romney launched his final pre-caucus ad in Iowa this morning that reminds voters of his "turn around" message -- and his family.
 
"Everywhere my family and I go we hear that America's challenges are simply too big for Washington politicians," he begins.
 
He goes on to tick off the laundry list of accomplishments on his resume, including his success in turning things around in business, the Olympics and as governor of Massachusetts. And he ends, "It's time to turn around Washington."
 
Noting the positive message the ad carries, spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said that the contrast in the dynamic will be interesting to watch today given Huckabee's proposed counterattacks for today.
 
Still, the Romney campaign blasted out another "THOSE WHO KNOW HIM BEST" release on Huckabee, hitting him for having a reputation of granting clemencies as governor and charging that the more he granted, "the more applications poured in."

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
Romney had great success with Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI) and his son, Bryan, on Friday. The same was true of Saturday, when he was traveling with former Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) and his son, Michael, and attorney Jay Sekulow and his son, Jordan. But today, he was traveling with former Colorado congressman and failed gubernatorial candidate, Bob Beauprez.

Parts of Beauprez's introductions:
"I'm very, very proud of our Republican field," Beauprez said. (When Republicans feel the need to say this, it sure sounds like they are feeling insecure.)

"I tell people, 'Mitt Romney was to business what Elvis Presley was to music,'" Beauprez said. "He was a rock star; he stood out; he set a whole new standard."

But give this one a look, as it caused several reporters' eyes to dart around the room and raise their eyebrows: "Then he went to the Salt Lake Olympics -- extremely difficult circumstances -- and if it wasn't tough enough already, they threw in a little event called 9/11 on top of it to complicate matters. He pulled that off in great style."

(What would the Giuliani campaign say to the notion that 9/11 was a "little event" that was thrown in to complicate matters for Romney...?)

From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
Tim Russert said it first, but the Giuliani campaign seems to have adopted it as their mantra, "Florida, Florida, Florida."
 
The Giuliani campaign released its latest "strategy memo" to the press Monday to reemphasize a late state strategy that is increasingly under scrutiny from the mainstream media. The memo continues the usual Giuliani campaign refrain that few delegates will actually be awarded in the next couple of weeks and that the states Giuliani has focused on -- Florida, Illinois, Missouri, New York, California, Georgia and New Jersey -- will propel him to the nomination.
 
"Putting a high priority on spending our time and money in a proportional basis in Florida and the large delegate states voting on February 5th is clearly the right thing to do," Giuliani Strategy Director Brent Seaborn writes.
 
The campaign has at times suffered from being outside the main dialogue by not exchanging barbs with Romney and Huckabee and campaigning in other states. Now, by leaving Iowa, Giuliani is entering into a long media blackout, as well as two days of no public events. The memo serves to validate the "slow and steady" mentality the Giuliani campaign has adopted and to try and draw the attention of reporters camped out in Des Moines.
 
Obviously, the Giuliani campaign is trying to downplay the significance of Iowa and New Hampshire, even as Giuliani will spend the first week of the new year in the Granite State. They believe that the contest will essentially start anew on Jan. 29, and that a Giuliani victory in Florida will make him look like the frontrunner.
 
Seaborn acknowledges that Giuliani could finish outside the top three in Iowa, perhaps as low as sixth place. He suggests polls in the next few weeks will be contradictory and that only the numbers in Florida, which he says have been stable all year, suggest the future.
 
"As in all races, expect to see signs of tightening in Florida as Election Day approaches, but also expect us to consolidate more support as candidates drop out of the race," he said. "We are very proud of our Florida organization, which, like all of our state organizations, is prepared for the long, hard fight to win."
 
But the memo downplays the free media that early state winners will receive, and the effect of voters picking a perceived winner in subsequent primaries. It ignores the perceived notion that Giuliani losses in the early states, even if they are not significant to the delegate count, will hurt Giuliani's reputation and boost other candidates, which will make Florida and the Feb. 5 contests harder for him to win.
 
The ultimate goal of the memo, one can assume, is to get anchors and reporters covering the Iowa caucuses to acknowledge the Giuliani approach and not laud the victor with front-runner status and to try and get as much attention from the press in the next week as possible, even as they are out of state.

From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
On the same day that the Romney campaign is set to release a positive ad -- the closing message in Iowa -- the team is also starting to engage Obama, given the senator's Romney-heavy remarks on the stump yesterday.

These are campaigns that are supposed to be singularly focused on the primaries in Iowa right now, so what might this be saying about internal tracking data? Romney's camp also just released a document, taking Obama to task on taxes.

*** UPDATE *** Here's the ad:

[YouTube:gJxW5mCz0U0]

NBC's Domenico Montanaro adds that this positive ad, running in Iowa, comes after Romney released negative ones on Huckabee and McCain, his chief rivals in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively.

In the ad, he touts his accomplishments in "helping turn around business, the Olympics, and state government."

From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
Edwards will have a full page ad in the Des Moines Register, according to a senior Edwards aide. Edwards will also go on air with 60-second ads during the network evening news programs in Iowa Jan. 2 and 3, according to the source.

From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe briefed the political press corps, via conference call and PowerPoint, on the state of the campaign as seen through their eyes.

The memo ticks through a series of numbers the campaign believes proves they are the candidate with momentum. But coming on the eve of the release of the final Des Moines Register poll (due out tonight), one can't help but also see the memo and call as a bit defensive. Overall, this was a presentation that a few months ago we might have expected from, say, Clinton rather than Obama. The campaign wasn't necessarily downplaying Iowa but they certainly were trying to leave the impression that Iowa's only the beginning, not the end.

In the call, Plouffe -- acknowledging that the polls show the race to be close -- cited the size of crowds at Obama events in Iowa, including a large number of undecided voters who are attending them. "Undecideds are still very interested in Sen. Obama," he said.

Plouffe also declared the Obama campaign has having the strongest organization in Iowa, and he said Obama and Edwards are the strongest second-choice options. "We think that's very important." And he added that Obama would capitalize from a large turnout.

Plouffe went on to say the race in Iowa a "one-on-seven" contest -- among Obama, Clinton, Edwards, and the various interest groups supporting Clinton and Edwards. including the "shadowing" pro-Edwards 527 group.

"We feel very good about where we are heading into Thursday," Plouffe said before going on to tout Obama's standing and organization in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, and the Feb. 5 states.

Plouffe also delivered this argument we haven't heard explicitly from the campaign before: that because Edwards accepted federal matching funds, he will be reliant on interest groups and the DNC until the Democratic convention -- if he wins the nomination.

*** UPDATE *** Edwards communications director Chris Kofinis issued this statement to Plouffe's assertions on the conference call regarding the interest-group help Edwards is receiving, as well as his ability to spend money -- if the nominee -- because he accepted federal matching funds. "The Obama campaign has spent over $9 million to our $2.6 million on television in Iowa and by all accounts we have the momentum. Their pre-occupation with money instead of the power of a strong message speaks volumes to a flailing campaign. And it may answer the question why the campaign premised on hope is closing with hopeless attacks."

More: "We'll put our message of fighting corporate greed up against Obama's and Clinton's mega millions any day of the week, in any state. The bottom line is this is an election, not an auction.  Democrats win elections when they address the real issues facing the lives of Americans. John Edwards is the only Democratic candidate who won office in a 'red' state, defeated a Republican incumbent, and he is the one candidate who will contest every state and win states thought lost to Democrats." 

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
DES MOINES, IA -- After the last four days of watching the top three Democrats on the stump, we think we can categorize their sales pitches more succinctly. Clinton is the steady hand, Obama is the unifying change agent, and Edwards is the crusader. For months, the chattering class has struggled to classify Edwards. Was he a change agent or a populist? Well, after listening to him use a variation of the word "fight" more than "change" (39 times versus 10 at one stop yesterday, per NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller), it's fair to say we know what he is: He's playing the role of crusader. Which message will ultimately work? The most tried and true method is the Clinton tactic (though it does put her in the position of being the "incumbent"). Crusader candidates usually hit a wall at some point because normally they have a hard time bring in new supporters (though Edwards does have ENORMOUS fav ratings). And change agents can do well in two-ways against the steady hand, but how much is Edwards hurting Obama in these closing days?

*** Huck's big test: Has Huckabee waited too long to respond? He appears to have let Romney get under his skin and he seems to be complaining very publicly about the attacks in a much less humorous way than he has in the past. Example: He tells the Politico that Romney owes him an apology. Will this style change cost him? Will voters look at the complaints at face value, or see him as weak for taking too long to respond? It's a major presidential leadership test for him.

*** Forget ringing in the New Year with a ball drop: While campaigns are spending New Year's here in the Hawkeye State, they will all hold off on any champagne until the hit refresh on their Web browsers waiting for the final Des Moines Register poll to be posted late tonight. The poll is set to appear in tomorrow's editions of the paper, meaning the poll will begin circulating late tonight. The poll, the most respected of any when it comes to Iowa, will have an effect on how the chattering class sets up the final days of the campaign.

*** Enter Bloomberg? So Bloomberg -- as today's New York Times suggests -- is closer to running, right? Well, remember he has to if he's even 20% thinking he'll run. The process for getting on ballots starts early, and he has to start the grunt work. What we don't know if whether there are any indie voters or voters in either primary who will use the Bloomberg threat to vote for the most electable candidate. The other thing to keep in mind is that while Bloomberg fascinates the Amtrak East Coast corridor, does the idea play in the rest of America?

*** Pulling a Dean? Did Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D), a key Clinton endorser and surrogate, pull a Howard Dean? "Beginning the presidential nominating process in Iowa, as will occur this week, 'makes no sense,' says Gov. Ted Strickland, who recently campaigned there for Sen. Hillary Clinton," the Columbus Dispatch writes. "'I'd like to see both parties say, "We're going to bring this to an end,"' he said." Well, remember the firestorm that engulfed Dean in January 2004, when NBC reported on unflattering statements he had made about the Iowa caucuses and the caucus system? Of course, there is a big difference of having a candidate (a la Dean) say something like this and a surrogate (like Strickland). But the Ohio governor has become one of Bill Clinton's standard stump mentions. Does that continue?

*** On the trail: Iowa remains the place to be this New Year's Eve… Biden visits Fort Dodge, Ames, and Newton; Clinton travels to Keokuk, Fort Madison, Muscatine, Waterloo, and Des Moines (the last three events billed as New Year's celebrations); Dodd visits the Niman ranch in Thornton; Edwards is in Storm Lake, Spence, Emmetsburg, Algona, and Mason City (for his New Year's Eve party); Huckabee spends his entire day in Des Moines, which includes a jog, haircut, and news conference; Obama goes to Perry, Jefferson, Boone, Iowa Falls, and Ames; Richardson campaigns in Ames, Perry, Winterset, Knoxville, and winds up in Des Moines for his NYE party; Romney stumps in Clinton, Bellevue, Dubuque, Manchester, Independence, and Waterloo; and Bill Clinton attends his own NYE parties in Missouri Valley and Ottumwa before joining his wife in Des Moines. Elsewhere, Giuliani is down, and Kucinich and McCain are in New Hampshire.

Countdown to Iowa: 3 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 8 days
Countdown to Michigan: 15 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 19 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 26 days
Countdown to Florida: 29 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 36 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 309 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 386 days

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"Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney took their battle over Christian voters to the pews as both attended services while their campaigns spanned Iowa in a final Sunday pitch to evangelicals. With Christian conservatives expected to make up as much as 40 percent of Republican caucusgoers, Romney dispatched surrogates to meet with pastors in the far corners of Iowa, hoping to blunt Huckabee's momentum among evangelicals. On Friday, three national religious leaders backing Huckabee -- Tim LaHaye, Michael Farris and Rick Scarborough -- convened a conference call with Iowa pastors to urge them to use Sunday's services to drive up participation by Christian voters, who polls suggest favor the former Arkansas governor by comfortable margins."

Per the New York Daily News, "Huckabee and Romney have been engaged in an increasingly nasty tussle for first place among GOP voters in Iowa, where the winner of their clash may be determined by which candidate can more effectively marshal their supporters to caucus sites on Thursday. Romney, who has the bigger war chest, is taking the time-tested route of building county support and approaching Republicans based on their prior voting records… Team Huckabee is relying more heavily on a patchwork of volunteer support from affinity groups such as home-schoolers, Christian groups and supporters of the so-called FairTax plan."

By the way, Huckabee is taking the Romney jabs VERY personally. Politico's Roger Simon got Huckabee to say he was owed a personal apology from Romney for the campaign attacks. "'I didn't draw first blood and say terrible things about Mitt,' Huckabee said. 'I'm not angry. This is politics; it is the way it works. But he not only wants to make up his record, but my record.'"

"'This is not the way a man ought to become president,' Huckabee went on. 'Certainly not in our party.'"

The Des Moines Register looks at the Clinton campaign's efforts to get out the vote among women. "Iowans who do a Google search for 'children' or 'recipe' or 'safe toys' will see a sponsored link to a 'You go girl!' site promoting Clinton. The ads are targeted to IP addresses registered in Iowa. The women-tailored advertising is paid for by Emily's List, the women-friendly fund-raising group."

The Washington Post looks at Obama's ground game and some of the new innovations the campaign has implemented. "With turnout likely to be decisive in a Democratic race that pollsters call a three-way tie, Obama (Ill.) has built an Election Day operation that combines an apparent edge in technology with the tried-and-true grunt work of a traditional Iowa campaign. Edwards and Clinton have also assembled formidable ground operations, with outside help from labor unions and political interest groups." 

It doesn't take long out here in Iowa to see the enthusiasm gap between the Democrats and the Republicans. The Wall Street Journal takes a look at it and wonders what repercussions this enthusiasm gap will have for the general election.

USA Today writes about the candidates' final pitches in Iowa.

The Los Angeles Times looks at the electability arguments the Dem front-runners are making. "Clinton and her supporters say she's been battle-tested by the 'Republican attack machine,' during her eight years in the White House and two successful Senate runs. Edwards touts his experience as the party's vice presidential candidate in 2004 and his appeal to rural America. Obama points to his promise to unite the country. And both men cite polls."

The Des Moines Register examines the influence of 527s in the state, particularly with two ads -- one for Edwards, one for Huckabee. "They look just like the campaign ads from the candidates, but they're not. As the hours tick down to Thursday's caucuses, outside groups - in some cases run by people with close ties to the actual campaigns - are making their 2008 election debut in Iowa."

CLINTON: Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's critique of Iowa's role in the nominating process didn't go over well with some Iowans. "In an interview with The Dispatch last week, Strickland said the Iowa caucuses make 'no sense.' He called the GOP and Democratic caucuses 'hugely undemocratic,' because the process 'excludes so many people.' Anyone who happens to be working or is sick or too old to get out for a few hours Thursday night won't be able to participate, Strickland said. 'I'd like to see both parties say, "We're going to bring this to an end,"' Strickland said, adding that he has no problem with the New Hampshire primary Jan. 8, because 'at least it's an election.'"

"Since endorsing Clinton in September, Strickland has campaigned for her three times in Iowa, including what was to be a quick trip Dec. 9 that turned into 'the trip to hell and back,' Strickland said. He expected to return to Columbus via Chicago early that Sunday night but was waylaid by bad weather, getting home at 6 a.m. Monday -- via Las Vegas. 'Iowa is not an attractive place to be in the wintertime,' Strickland said, adding that Iowa 'is not a representative state and the caucus is not a fair way to register public opinion, in my judgment.'"

"The Clinton campaign yesterday sought some distance from the governor's comments. 'Sen. Clinton believes that Iowa and New Hampshire play a unique and special role in the nominating process, and that process should be protected,' spokesman Isaac Baker said. 'We're proud to have Gov. Strickland's support, but on this issue they disagree.'"   

The AP writes about Chelsea, and it leads with her turning down an interview request with a 9-year-old reporter. "Sydney Rieckhoff, a Cedar Rapids fourth grader and 'kid reporter' for Scholastic News, has posed questions to seven Republican and Democratic presidential hopefuls as they've campaigned across Iowa this year. But when she approached the 27-year-old Chelsea after a campaign event Sunday, she got a different response. 'Do you think your dad would be a good 'first man' in the White House?' Sydney asked, but Chelsea brushed her question aside."

"'I'm sorry, I don't talk to the press and that applies to you, unfortunately. Even though I think you're cute,' Chelsea told the pint-sized journalist."

EDWARDS: Edwards said if he wins Iowa, he can erase the money gap between himself, Obama and Clinton. "'It's just reality that if you win the Iowa caucuses, the money pours in,' Edwards said in an Associated Press interview Sunday. 'It's almost like you cannot process it because it comes in so fast. There will be plenty of money to run the campaign.' After months of being seemingly stuck in third place in most polls, Edwards has climbed into a virtual tie in recent surveys and has drawn large, enthusiastic crowds on a well-trod route through the state since his second-place finish here in 2004."

The New York Times front-pages how the death of their son Wade helped spur the Edwardses into politics. When Edwards decided to keep running after Elizabeth's cancer returned, that decision "showed a sense of purpose and a lesson learned a decade ago from crushing pain: If you can't control life, you can at least embrace it more urgently. 'We've been through the worst a couple can go through,' Mr. Edwards said in an interview. 'So long as there's something you can do that's positive, there's a chance. As long as there's a chance, there's something to hold on to.'"

The Obama folks are making hay out of this… "Edwards Spokesman Said That Edwards Would Only Ban Lobbyists Whose Lobbying Work Goes Back Five Years." "Campaigning in Washington, Iowa, Edwards announced that he would bar anyone who has done lobbying work for a corporation or a foreign government from working in his White House. Edwards spokesman Eric Schultz said the ban would apply for lobbying work going back up to five years."

OBAMA: Bloomberg News tracked former Indonesian classmates of Obama. "In interviews, those who knew him then remember a tall, laid-back, curly-haired and athletic kid named Barry whose darker skin and broken Indonesian didn't prevent him from being a leader."

GIULIANI: After the MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll showed Giuliani lagging far behind in Iowa, the New York Post headlines, "Rudy's got not heartland." "When you get to Florida and the Feb. 5 states, we're ahead in some cases by large percentages and in some case by closer percentages," Giuliani told Fox News. "We believe it's a good strategy and it's going to work."

The Washington Times' Dinan tracked Giuliani's Iowa campaign stops and notes the "reviews" are "far less kind" than they were during the summer when Giuliani was campaigning more regularly in the state.

Giuliani pens an essay on homeland security in City Journal, a quarterly published by the conservative Manhattan Institute. 

HUCKABEE: Other than appearing on "Meet the Press," Huckabee was down Sunday. What was he doing? Adviser Ed Rollins said Huckabee would spend part of the day taping a television ad, to run Monday, aimed at making sure that "the voters know the facts about the governor's record and Governor Romney's record."

PAUL: The Des Moines Register profiles Paul. "His message includes limited government, an end to the war in Iraq, protection of gun rights, lower taxes, strictly abiding by the Constitution and a balanced federal budget. It's a message that sets him apart from other Republican presidential candidates who mostly have supported the war and have not been nearly as aggressive about taking a stand on budget issues as Paul."

MCCAIN: This isn't quite the same story as we think the New York Times is working on, but the Washington Post writes that Mr. Campaign Finance Reform John McCain "has found himself assiduously courting both lobbyists and their wealthy clients, offering them private audiences as part of his fundraising. He also counts more than 30 lobbyists among his chief fundraisers, more than any other presidential contender."

"McCain aides bridle at the notion that the senator, who has consistently fought in the Senate against so-called pork-barrel spending from such interests and championed laws to restrict their lobbying and political donations, might favor his big contributors. 'There's never been anybody who's done more to rein in special interests and lobbyists than John McCain,' Davis said. 'If you give to him, you know there's no quid pro quo. People give to him because they want him to be president of the United States. They can't be motivated by any other reason.'" 

ROMNEY: The Boston Globe front-pages this headline: "Credibility pounded, Romney wrestles uncertainties."

THOMPSON: Interestingly, a candidate did something one rarely does this close to the caucuses: He raised expectations. "Campaigning heavily here over the past two weeks, Mr. Thompson has refined his message and yesterday released a 15-minute Web video laying out his qualifications and telling voters they need to pick a Republican nominee who is willing to call out Democratic leaders for abandoning their principles."

Thompson told reporters at a stop in Ames that he needs to finish second, though he refused to speculate what would happen if he doesn't meet that goal. Later, speaking to supporters in Webster City, he said, 'People say, "You'd be satisfied with a good third-place finish' -- No, no, no."

By the way, Thompson is back on the air in Iowa. As of late last week, he was one of the few major candidates (who was taking Iowa seriously) to NOT be on the air.

The New York Times reports that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is edging ever closer to an indie run. "A final decision by Mr. Bloomberg about whether to run is unlikely before February. Still, he and his closest advisers are positioning themselves so that if the mayor declares his candidacy, a turnkey campaign infrastructure will virtually be in place. Bloomberg aides have studied the process for starting independent campaigns, which formally begins March 5, when third-party candidates can begin circulating nominating petitions in Texas. If Democrats and Republicans have settled on their presumptive nominees at that point, Mr. Bloomberg will have to decide whether he believes those candidates are vulnerable to a challenge from a pragmatic, progressive centrist, which is how he would promote himself."

"The filing deadline for the petitions, which must be signed by approximately 74,000 Texas voters who did not participate in the state's Democratic or Republican primaries, is May 12."

The Boston Globe: " Buoyed by the still unsettled field, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg is growing increasingly enchanted with the idea of launching an independent presidential bid, and his aides are aggressively laying the groundwork for him to run."

From NBC's John Yang
President Bush and the First Lady will ring in the New Year at the Prairie Chapel Ranch outside Crawford, Texas.

Well, sort of.

It depends on what your definition of "ring in" is, Yang adds. If it means being up to celebrate the stroke of midnight and the first seconds of 2008, not so much. Think more like being in bed, having been asleep for hours. Unlike his predecessor, Bush is hardly a night owl, preferring to be in bed by 9:00 pm. or so.

As Laura Bush teased him during her monologue at the 2005 White House Correspondents' Association Dinner: "George, if you really want to end tyranny in the world, you're going to have to stay up later."