During the presidential campaign last fall, Univision asked President Obama about his biggest failure in his four years in office.

His answer: passing comprehensive immigration reform.

But Obama, at the forum sponsored by the Spanish-language network in September, continued:

"I think that I’ve learned some lessons over the last four years, and the most important lesson I’ve learned is that you can’t change Washington from the inside. You can only change it from the outside. That’s how I got elected, and that’s how the big accomplishments like health care got done."

Mitt Romney and the Republican Party pounced on those comments. "The president today threw in the white flag of surrender again,” Romney argued. “He said he can’t change Washington from inside; he can only change it from outside. Well, we’re going to give him that chance in November. He’s going outside!”

Yet campaign rhetoric aside, Obama was admitting a simple truth about American politics at that Univision forum: The power to change policy comes from public opinion. And it also comes from the ballot box.

In other words, elections have consequences -- especially after more than 70 percent of Latinos backed Obama in the 2012 presidential election, up from 67 percent in 2008.

That explains why Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) -- who once championed comprehensive immigration reform but has opposed it ever since the '08 election -- is back on board.

"Elections, elections. The Republican Party is losing the support of our Hispanic citizens," McCain said at a news conference yesterday announcing his support of bipartisan principles to reform the nation's immigration system.

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) put it another way. "The politics on this issue have been turned upside down," he said. "There is more political risk in opposing immigration reform rather than supporting it."

None of this is to say that immigration reform's passage through Congress is a sure thing. Already, opponents are asking that the Senate slow down consideration of any legislation. "No secret accord with profound consequences for this nation’s future can be rushed through. That means a full committee process and debate and amendments on the floor of the Senate," Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) said in a statement yesterday.

But it does point to how outside forces -- and elections -- can change politics, at least for a while, on issues like immigration and taxes.

In an address Tuesday to the Ripon Society, a Republican-leaning group, House Speaker John Boehner charged that it was the Obama administration's goal to "annihilate" the Republican Party and "shove" it "into the dustbin of history."

Said Boehner:

"And given what we heard yesterday about the president's vision for his second term, it's pretty clear to me that he knows he can't do any of that as long as the House is controlled by Republicans. So we're expecting over the next 22 months to be the focus of this administration as they attempt to annihilate the Republican Party. And let me just tell you, I do believe that is their goal - to just shove us into the dustbin of history. I've been in these spots before. I remember November of '06, January of '07 -- we've been through these periods before. And you know, our members get down, our supporters get down." 

The speaker continued:

“But listen, we are Americans and we will figure this out. These next couple of weeks, next couple of months, frankly, the next 20 months, are going to be a very difficult period for us. While we want to stand up and fight for more fiscal responsibility, want to stand up and find a way to move tax reform that will help our economy grow, to do the things we believe in, we’re going to be doing it in an environment that is going to be far more hostile than anything that I think we’ve seen for a long, long time.  We’re going to have to make some big decisions about how we as a party take on this challenge.  Where’s the ground that we fight on? Where’s the ground that we retreat on? Where are the smart fights?  Where are the dumb fights that we have to stay away from?"  

Boehner also said that he had to give former college football coach -- and ESPN commentator -- Lou Holtz a pep talk after both Obama's inauguration and his re-election.

"Last night, I got a three-page text from my good friend Lou Holtz, who must have watched the inaugural and then all that blabber on TV…: 'I'm done, finished, the country's over with -- we're not doing this again!' Now, I had already had this conversation with Lou about nine or ten days after the election.  He came in to speak to our 34 new Members. And before he went over to talk to them, he came over to my office, and he was moaning and groaning.  I said, 'Lou, would you stop it?  We're Americans, we'll figure this out!' And I had to spend 15 minutes giving Lou Holtz a pep talk!  I had to do it again last night!"

Americans for a Strong Defense, a Republican-leaning group that opposes former GOP Sen. Chuck Hagel's nomination to be defense secretary, is airing new TV ads hitting Hagel in four states where Democratic senators are up for re-election in 2014.

The four states: Alaska (where Sen. Mark Begich is up for re-election next year), Arkansas (Sen. Mark Pryor), Colorado (Sen. Mark Udall), and Louisiana (Sen. Mary Landrieu).

"Barack Obama’s nominee for secretary of defense wants America to back down," one of these ads goes. "An end to our nuclear program. Devastating defense cuts. A weaker country. Call Mark Begich and tell him to say no to Chuck Hagel –- before it’s too late."

A spokesman for Americans for a Strong Defense says the ad buy is "significant," and the advertisements will air on broadcast and cable in these four states.

Political observers have placed so much emphasis on the “liberal” second inaugural address that President Obama delivered yesterday.

David Remnick in the New Yorker called Obama “a liberal emboldened by political victory.”

Scott Andrews / Pool via AP

President Barack Obama waves to crowd after his Inaugural speech at the ceremonial swearing-in on the West Front of the U.S. Capitol during the 57th Presidential Inauguration in Washington, Monday, Jan. 21, 2013.

The Atlantic’s James Fallows added that the speech was “the most sustainedly ‘progressive’ statement Barack Obama has made in his decade on the national stage.” 

Politico’s Thrush agreed.

So did we. “More than anything else, [the address] was an unabashed defense of liberalism/progressivism,” we wrote in First Thoughts.

And now the GOP-leaning group Crossroad GPS has pounced on similar commentary with a new web video. “At least his rhetoric is now matching his record,” Crossroads spokesman Jonathan Collegio said in an email announcing the video.

But what is being mostly overlooked is how many of the policies and viewpoints Obama articulated in his inaugural address are supported by majorities of Americans.

Take Obama’s advocacy for gay rights, for example. (“Our journey is not complete until our gay brothers and sisters are treated like anyone else under the law,” Obama said in his speech yesterday). As it turns out, per the Dec. 2012 NBC/WSJ poll, a majority of Americans -- 51% -- favor gay marriage. That’s up from a mere 30% in 2004.

There’s also immigration reform. (“Our journey is not complete until we find a better way to welcome the striving, hopeful immigrants who still see America as a land of opportunity.”) The Jan. 2013 NBC/WSJ found another majority -- 52% -- supporting giving illegal immigrants the ability to apply for legal status.

And then there's his defense of entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare. (“These things do not sap our initiative; they strengthen us. They do not make us a nation of takers; they free us to take the risks that make this country great.”) Polls overwhelmingly find that Americans support these programs.

One issue that Obama discussed yesterday -- stopping climate change -- is a topic that could be a harder political sell, although the NBC/WSJ poll hasn’t tested it in a long time. And it is possible, as the Washington Post's Dan Balz notes, that Obama's second term could be marked by overreach.

But it's also hard to argue that these “liberal” ideas and policies are somehow far outside the political mainstream.

As Politico writes, “The cultural changes that allowed Obama to be the first president to mention gay rights in an inaugural address are already widely accepted by the public or destined to be so soon as a younger, more socially liberal generation comes of age. The president’s promise to address climate change and his peroration on continuing ‘what those pioneers began’ on gender equality, gay rights, voting rights, immigration and gun control likewise illustrated just how much the White House is convinced that the country’s cultural center has moved.”

NBC's Domenico Montanaro contributed to this article.

As Hillary Clinton concludes her four-year tenure as secretary of state, a whopping 69 percent approve of her job, according to a new NBC/WSJ poll.

That includes 92 percent of Democrats, 64 percent of independents and even 41 percent of Republicans who approve of her job.

Just 25 percent disapprove of her job.

That 69 percent approval rating is higher than any other outgoing secretary of state measured in a survey since 1948 -- with one exception: Colin Powell, whose approval rating was at 77 percent per a late 2004 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll. 

This NBC/WSJ poll comes after Clinton -- a potential 2016 presidential candidate -- was hospitalized for a blood clot. It also comes after her State Department was criticized for the attack on the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi.

The full NBC/WSJ poll -- which was conducted Jan. 12-15 -- is released at 6:30 pm ET.

As Washington prepares for a political battle over the Obama White House's proposals to curb gun violence after the Newtown, Conn., shootings, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that the National Rifle Association is more popular than the entertainment industry.

Forty-one percent of adults see the NRA -- the nation's top gun lobby -- in a positive light, while 34 percent view it in a negative light.

By comparison, just 24 percent have positive feelings about the entertainment industry, and 39 percent have negative ones.

The NRA's fav/unfav score is virtually unchanged from its 41 percent-to-29 percent rating in the Jan. 2011 NBC/WSJ poll, nearly two years before the Newtown shootings.

"That seems to me to be a pretty remarkably stable figure," says GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart.

But it's a substantial improvement from the 1990s, when the NRA's negative ratings outweighed its positive ones in the NBC/WSJ survey.

The current poll also shows a sharp divide between attitudes among gun owners and non-gun owners.

Among those who own a gun, 62 percent view the NRA favorably. But that percentage drops to just 25 percent among those who don't.

The full poll -- which was conducted Jan. 12-15 of 1,000 adults (including 300 cell phone-only respondents), and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points -- will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

First Read confirms that Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano will remain in her job during President Obama's second term, according to an administration official.

The news was first reported by the Washington Post.

To recap the cabinet shuffle so far:
Cabinet secretaries remaining:
Napolitano (DHS)
Eric Holder (Justice)
Kathleen Sebelius (HHS)
Eric Shinseki (Veterans Affairs)

Leaving:
Hillary Clinton at State (John Kerry nominated)
Leon Panetta at Defense (Chuck Hagel nominated)
Tim Geithner at Treasury (Jack Lew nominated)
Hilda Solis at Labor
Lisa Jackson at EPA

Newark Mayor Cory Booker (D) has filed a statement of organization with the Federal Election Commission -- as part of his all-but certain effort to run for Senate in 2014.

The FEC filing, which the Newark Star-Ledger first reported, is dated Jan. 8

Booker released a video back in December saying that he wouldn't run for governor in 2013 but was instead eyeing a bid for Senate -- even though the seat is currently occupied by Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ).

A recent Fairleigh Dickinson University poll found Booker leading Lautenberg by more than 20 points among New Jersey Democrats in a hypothetical Dem primary, 42%-20%.

Earlier today, Bloomberg News reported that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is planning to leave the Obama administration by the end of January, even if the White House and Congress haven't yet reached a deal on the debt ceiling by then.

In response to a question from First Read about the article, a Treasury spokesperson says that Geithner has previously stated he plans to stay "until around the inauguration" -- so late January.

"Secretary Geithner has previously stated that he plans to be at Treasury until around the inauguration," the spokesperson said. "We do not plan to make any further announcements about the timing of the Secretary's departure until after his successor is named."

Geithner, 51, is the only remaining original member of Obama's cabinet and has been an instrumental figure in the administration's handling of the bank bailouts and economic recovery efforts in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. 

Prior to joining the Obama administration, Geithner served as the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He first joined the Treasury department in 1988 and served in various roles under three separate administrations.  

One possible contender for the job after Geithner's departure is current White House Chief of Staff Jack Lew, who previously served as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget.

NBC's Carrie Dann contributed to this report.  

As others have pointed out, the so-called fiscal cliff maybe isn't the best metaphor to use in describing the current debate over the looming tax increases and spending cuts set to take place in the new year.

After all, when you jump off a cliff, you usually don't live to tell about it.

But that isn't necessarily the case in this debate. If tax rates go up and spending cuts go into effect after Dec. 31, Congress always has the ability to fix things retroactively at a later date.

Perhaps a better metaphor to use is the deadline for midterm paper -- you might fail your class or flunk out of school if you don't complete the paper on time, or you could successfully negotiate to turn it in a later date, or you could do other things to boost your grades and standing in school.

Another metaphor is the deadline for a collective-bargaining agreement in professional sports -- having the contract expire could mean the end to the football or hockey season, or the principals could eventually reach a deal (even if that means a shortened season).

So what happens -- and what doesn't -- if Congress, as it increasingly appears, fails to reach a fiscal deal before the new year?

On Christmas, the New York Times ran a good summary:

Some hits — like a two percentage point increase in payroll taxes and the end of unemployment benefits for more than two million jobless Americans — would be felt right away. But other effects, like tens of billions in automatic spending cuts, to include both military and other programs, would be spread out between now and the end of the 2013 fiscal year in September. These could quickly be reversed if a compromise is found.

Similarly, the expiration of Bush-era tax cuts on Jan. 1 would not have a major impact on consumers if Congress quickly agreed to extend them for all but the wealthiest Americans in early 2013, as is widely expected.

Other probable changes, like a jump in taxes on capital gains and dividends, would most likely be felt over a broader period rather than as an immediate blow to the economy.

So the world doesn't come to an end on Jan. 2 or Jan. 3. But the question will turn to: What does Congress and the Obama White House do to fix things and limit the damage?

Editor's note: Over the next few days, First Read will be recapping the year in politics. Our first entry: what we consider the Top 10 political events of 2012.

1. "47 percent": A surreptitiously recorded video of Mitt Romney, released on Sept. 17 by Mother Jones, didn't lose the presidential contest for the Republicans. But it cemented the impression of Romney that the Obama campaign wanted to portray -- as a multi-millionaire whose business history and policies ignored average Americans.

In the video, from a closed-door fundraiser in May, Romney tells wealthy donors that the "47 percent" of the country that doesn't pay income taxes, that is dependent on government, and that believes "they are victims" will vote for President Obama no matter what. He adds in the video: "My job is not to worry about those people. I'll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."

Romney first responded that his comments were "not elegantly stated," and he later said they were "completely wrong." But the damage was done. The Obama campaign and its allies pounced on the "47 percent" comments in numerous TV ads (like here and here). In the end, according to the exit polls, 53 percent of voters said that Obama was more in touch with people like them than Romney was, and another 53 percent said Romney's policies would generally favor the rich. The irony: Romney won just 47 percent of the popular vote.

2. The Democratic convention: This year was another reminder that political conventions do matter in presidential contests. After the Democratic convention in Charlotte, N.C. -- which featured well-received speeches by First Lady Michelle Obama, San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, former President Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama -- the Dem ticket got a noticeable bump in state and national polls. The convention also served as a turning point for Democratic Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren, who delivered a primetime address. (Before the speech, Warren was trailing in most polls; afterward, she jumped into the lead.)

By comparison, Romney received little to no bump in the polls after the GOP convention in Tampa, Fla. Indeed, Romney's own acceptance speech was overshadowed by Clint Eastwood's impromptu -- and bizarre -- remarks to an empty chair (which he pretended to be Obama) on the convention's final night.

3. The Denver debate: After the convention season and after the "47 percent" video surfaced, Romney's presidential candidacy hung by a thread -- polls showed Obama pulling away and news reports uncovered turmoil within the Romney camp. But just about two weeks later, Romney would have his strongest moment of the presidential campaign. At the first presidential debate, in Denver on Oct. 3, Romney shined and Obama fell flat. Afterward, Romney began to gain on Obama in national and some state polls, and his campaign touted that it had the momentum in final weeks, even after Obama was viewed as the victor in the other two debates. But in the end, the Denver debate wasn't enough to erase Romney's rough summer and September.

4. The Supreme Court's health-care decision: Here's a thought exercise: Imagine if the U.S. Supreme Court had struck down Obama's landmark health-care law. Such a ruling would have deprived the president of his signature domestic achievement, and would have allowed Romney to charge that Obama wasted his first year in office on an unconstitutional endeavor. It's impossible to know how the presidential election would have turned out after that hypothetical outcome, but it's safe to say that such a ruling probably wouldn't have helped Obama.

In the end, however, the Supreme Court upheld the health-care law by a narrow 5-4 majority on June 28. And the ruling served as a sort of turning point in the summer: Before, Obama's campaign was struggling (the news from the monthly jobs reports were disappointing, and Republicans pounced on Obama's "the private sector is doing fine" remarks). After, it was the Romney campaign that struggled (the scrutiny over Romney's tax returns and work at Bain Capital, plus the mixed reviews of his overseas trip to Europe and the Middle East).

5. Hurricane Sandy: Here's a second thought exercise: What if Hurricane Sandy had never pummeled the East Coast in late October and hadn't allowed the incumbent Obama to demonstrate presidential leadership or bipartisanship (with New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie) after a natural disaster? While the hurricane probably wasn't a decisive event in the election -- Romney's momentum after the first debate was already waning -- it helped Obama. According to the exit polls, 42 percent said the president's response to Sandy was important in their vote, and Obama won those voters by a 68 percent-to-31 percent margin.

Larry Downing / Reuters

President Barack Obama and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie talk with survivors of Hurricane Sandy in a community center while touring damaged areas in Brigantine, N.J, Oct. 31, 2012. Obama and Christie put aside partisan differences to visit storm-swamped parts of New Jersey together and oversee relief efforts after the devastation of the storm Sandy.

6. "Legitimate rape": If the "47 percent" tape cemented the impression of Romney as an out-of-touch multi-millionaire, then Rep. Todd Akin's "legitimate rape" remark put an exclamation mark on the Republican Party's struggles with female voters. In an interview on Aug. 19, Akin -- the GOP nominee in Missouri's Senate contest -- explained his opposition to abortion in cases of rape, saying that pregnancies by rape are rare. "If it's a legitimate rape, the female body has ways to try to shut that whole thing down."

Akin went on to lose his race against endangered incumbent Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. (Republicans also lost another winnable Senate race, in Indiana, after the GOP nominee made another controversial comment on rape.) And in the presidential contest, Obama won female voters by 11 percentage points, 55 percent to 44 percent.

7. The Michigan primary: You might not remember it, but there was a time -- in February -- when it wasn't clear that Mitt Romney would be the GOP's presidential nominee. Back then, according to some polls, Romney was trailing Rick Santorum in the upcoming Feb. 28 Michigan primary. A loss in Romney's native state would have sent Republican leaders into a panic, and might have sparked a movement to draft another Republican into the race. In the end, however, Romney edged Santorum in Michigan by three percentage points, 41 percent to 38 percent, and he later went on to wrap up the GOP nomination.

8. The South Carolina primary: But there also was a time when it appeared that Romney would wrap up the nomination early. He won the Iowa caucuses by the narrowest of margins and then triumphed in New Hampshire's primary. A win in the next contest -- in South Carolina on Jan. 21 -- would have effectively ended the fight for the nomination and would have given Romney more months to prepare for a general-election fight against Obama.

But then came adversity for Romney: Newt Gingrich routed him in South Carolina's primary, and then it was determined that Santorum -- and not Romney -- had won in Iowa. Romney later regrouped in Florida and Michigan. But instead of the general election beginning in earnest in January or February, Romney didn't essentially clinch the GOP nomination until April, when Santorum suspended his campaign. 

9. Benghazi: On Sept. 11, attacks were launched on the U.S. embassy in Cairo, Egypt and a consulate in Benghazi, Libya. Obama administration officials gave the impression that an anti-Muslim video sparked both attacks. (And Romney was criticized for firing off a statement blasting the embassy in Egypt for condemning the "efforts by misguided individuals to hurt the religious feelings of Muslims.")

But as it was later determined, the Benghazi attack was a coordinated terrorist act, which resulted in the deaths of four Americans, including the U.S. ambassador to Libya. Under intense GOP criticism for initially linking the Benghazi attack to the anti-Muslim video, U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice in December withdrew her name from consideration of being Obama's next secretary of state.

10. The Ryan pick: Not since John F. Kennedy tapped Lyndon Johnson to be his running mate in 1960 has a VP selected greatly impacted a presidential contest, at least in a positive way for the ticket. And that streak held true in 2012 after Romney picked Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan on Aug. 11 to be his VP sidekick -- Romney, after all, ended up losing Wisconsin by seven points, 53 percent to 46 percent. But the selection ended months of speculation about Romney's eventual choice, and it further elevated Ryan into the national spotlight.

Earlier this morning, we wrote that -- after last night's House GOP failure to pass "Plan B" -- the White House and Congress essentially have three remaining options:

1. The White House and the Senate (both Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell) work on a quick fix -- like raising rates on income above $250,000 -- that they can force through the House.

2. President Obama still tries to strike a grand bargain, now holding more leverage.

3. We go over the cliff.

Going over the cliff -- which NBC's Mike Viqueira dubbed "the inertia option -- looks like the most likely option. In fact, here's what Viqueira wrote earlier this month:

For what it’s worth, I am in the camp that says they go over the cliff. I don’t see how Boehner puts a bill on the floor that raises rate on anyone. The party would explode, which might be what POTUS has in mind.

In Boehner’s mind, I think it’s better to come back after Jan. 1 and vote to cut them back to where they were, with the top earners going up. Inertia is a driving force in this scenario.