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Subscribe to RSSHere’s one of the eternal truths of American politics: The stories never stop, even after a presidential election.
So next month in South Carolina, former Republican Gov. Mark Sanford will run in a primary for his old congressional seat. Yes, that's the same Mark Sanford who was once supposed to be hiking the Appalachian Trail. Instead, he was with his Argentine mistress, sparking quite a scandal.
Then, later this spring in Massachusetts, there will be the race for the Senate seat vacated by new Secretary of State John Kerry. Yet with former Sen. Scott Brown, R-Mass., declining to run, the seat will likely remain in Democratic hands.
And between now and the summer, there will be plenty of other races, legislative fights and controversies across the country to follow.
But as the political world begins turning its attention to the next presidential race -- still more than 1,300 days away -- no state will be more important to watch over the next four years than Florida.
It will be important to watch because of next year's gubernatorial race, which could be a contest between current Republican Gov. Rick Scott and Charlie Crist, a Democrat who once served as the state’s Republican governor.
It will be important to watch because two high-profile Floridians -- Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Jeb Bush, another former governor -- could very well run for president in 2016.
And it will be important because Florida, with its growing Latino vote, has emerged as a state that Republicans have to win in order to triumph in future presidential elections.
Demography is destiny in Florida
The Sunshine State consists of different geographic regions, each with their own politics. There’s the conservative-leaning Panhandle, as well as the liberal-leaning southern part of the state (mixed with its fascinating Cuban-American politics).
And then there's that swing I-4 Corridor -- Orlando, Tampa, and St. Petersburg -- although the most recent elections have suggested the region might be less swing (and more Democratic leaning) than in past cycles.
But the most fascinating part of Florida isn't geography; it's its demography.
To understand Florida’s changing demographics and the growing power of the Latino vote, consider these statistics.
In 2012, Barack Obama won just 37 percent of the white vote in the state, which was five points worse than John Kerry in 2004.
But unlike Kerry, Obama won Florida. How did he do it? For one thing, the Latino population increased from 15 percent of Florida’s electorate in 2004 to 17 percent in 2012.
More importantly, Obama won 60 percent of those voters, versus Kerry losing them in ’04. Obama also won a majority of the Cuban-American vote.
That’s the demographic reality now facing the Republican Party, and why some national Republicans like Rubio and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., are working to pass comprehensive immigration reform. (It’s also why Florida has wanted to have an early role in GOP presidential nominating contests.)
As McCain recently said, “The Republican Party is losing the support of our Hispanic citizens."
And if Republicans can’t win Florida in presidential elections, it’s next to impossible to win the White House.
After all, a Democratic candidate winning just the three states of California, Florida and New York gets 113 electoral votes -- more than 40 percent of the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Scott vs. Crist?
After its losses in 2012, the first test of how the Republican Party is faring in Florida will be its competitive gubernatorial contest next year.
While the race is more than a year away, here are three sets of figures to keep in mind.
The first is 31 -- that’s the percentage of Floridians holding a favorable view of Republican Gov. Rick Scott, according to a December Quinnipiac poll. Compare that with 54 percent for President Obama and 47 percent for Republican-turned Democrat Charlie Crist.
The second number is 8.0 percent -- that’s Florida’s current unemployment rate. It’s a high number, slightly above U.S. average. But it’s down from the 10.9 percent it was when Scott first took office. That’s progress Rick Scott can point to.
The third and final number is 80 -- as in the $80 million Scott spent in his successful gubernatorial bid in 2010. That’s a lot of money, and money Democrats won’t be able to match. And it’s now being reported that Scott could spend as much as $100 million in next year’s race.
In addition to those three sets of numbers, there are three unresolved questions:
-- Does Charlie Crist run? If he does, he’d be the Democratic front-runner, despite his recent conversion to the Democratic Party.
-- Can Scott improve his standing with independent voters? In that December Quinnipiac poll, just 25 percent of independents had a favorable view of the governor.
-- And can Scott and Republicans make better inroads with the growing Latino vote?
2016: Rubio and Jeb
So that’s for 2014. But there’s another story already developing involving the Sunshine State – the 2016 presidential election.
Yes, it’s early. Yes, things are fluid. And, yes, everything right now is speculation. But it’s also clear that freshman Sen, Marco Rubio is more than eyeing a potential presidential bid.
As one Florida Democratic strategist told First Read: “I believe [Rubio] runs in 2016 for the same reason that President Obama ran in 2008 -- you never know when the window opens and closes.”
Rubio has assembled a top-notch staff. What’s more, he’s part of a group of bipartisan senators pushing for comprehensive immigration reform, whose principles are broadly supported by President Obama.
Rubio’s current task is selling this reform to prominent conservative voices like Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity.
And on Tuesday night, Rubio will be delivering the Republican response to President Obama’s State of the Union on Tuesday, which is a huge platform for the Florida senator.
But here’s the question for him: Does he run if another Floridian -- former Gov. Jeb Bush -- runs? Is there enough space for two Florida Republicans in a potential 2016 GOP primary?
As Buzzfeed recently wrote, “With their shared passion for immigration reform, overlapping donor networks, and long, healthy alliance, Rubio and Bush have put Miami's political class in the improbable position of having two ‘favorite sons’ in the top tier of 2016 speculation — and sources say both men are actively mulling it.
Indeed, there are indications Bush is at least considering a presidential run. Next month, he is scheduled to speak at the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, DC, an annual cattle call that’s a must for potential Republican presidential candidates. And this will be the first time Bush has spoken to this group.
Jeb Bush. Marco Rubio. Rick Scott. Charlie Crist. Demographics. Close races (some decided by hanging chads).
Florida has been the place for some of America’s best political stories for more than a decade. And, it’s safe to say, that will continue over the next four years.
Editor’s note: This article was adapted from a recent speech the author gave at Flagler College in St. Augustine, Fla.
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Only good news is that thanks to global warming and weather changes, Florida, AKA South Georgia, will soon be washed away into the sea never to return...the oceans can't rise fast enough as far as I am concerned, won't miss that part of the south, not now, not ever
Scott could always sign an executive order to close all polling places except those in Republican districts....
Woodbutcher
I like your comment thats the only way they can win is be cheating
The Conservatives are sure trying their hardest to "pump up" Marco Rubio, because they are in deep doo doo already, and 2016 is still one who Term away.
They did poorly with the "hispanic" vote.
Cuban...Mexican.....Puerto Rican....it's all the same....right? We just need one or two of them who have a brown sounding name and everything will be all better.
I think's I detects fear in the left wing loons camp.
Jebb Bush running for president ,what a joke, his brother and father were the worst two we ever had and Jebbb is tainted with the same tar brush. For the republicians to ever win they need to get in touch with the American people something they are not able to do.
Yet you like this ignorant negro who can't pour piss out of a boot and what he has done for the country right?
What are we watching for 4 years?
Will they have their votes counted by then?
Republicans think that Mexicans don't know the difference between a Cuban and a Mexican?
I wish a lot of Chinese refugees would move to Florida. Then we wouldn't allow travel to China or anyone to do business with china.
Our manufacturing would come back and our trade deficit would shrink.
They're priming another Bush in Texas.
Jeb P. Bush...nephew of W and "hispanic" is already being groomed for........something.
He had a campaign event and raised a million dollars to run for.......something. He hasn't decided WHAT yet.
It doesn't matter. He's royalty and deserves to be elected to......something.
Kind of like the drunken airhead Kennedy royalty, eh?
Or Hillary Clinton?
From the article, Point the 1st:
"And it will be important because Florida, with its growing Latino vote, has emerged as a state that Republicans have to win in order to triumph in future presidential elections."
Point the 2nd:
"As McCain recently said, 'The Republican Party is losing the support of our Hispanic citizens.'"
Conclusion:
Sorry, Mr. McCain, but you can't "lose" what you never had.
Result:
Game, set, and match: Democrats.
And Florida with its 29 electorial votes goes to Marco Rubio.
But wait, the Democrats claim he drinks water.....ooooooh nooooooo
Yes, watch Florida and Texas as many business both big and small move there to escape the onerous taxes and onerous job killing regulations and policies of the backward liberal states like NY and California...
You don't go along with Ignorance (Obama World) , you educate and Defeat it....
Obama- the empty suit president for the Ignorant....
Rubio's the new Republican ace. The only smart thing in political life he's done is not joining the Romney ticket. "Cada vez que habre la boca la caga." Now he talks about the things Repubs should've done when they had the WH: balancing the Budget, lowering the Debt, lowering oil imports, jobs. They did neither. Crying babies.
Republicans are deranged these days. They have become so extreme and separated from reality it's impossible for moderate people to want them in power. If the GOP wants to stay alive they should look to their past, the Republicans of the 50's. Dwight Eisenhower R, a legendary general was president. We were leaders in science/tech and business. We began building a national freeway system. We had a first rate space program. Our education system was producing an educated, capable work force. We had state hospitals to treat and house the indigent mentally ill. The top tax rate in the 1950's was 91%. Today, with a top tax rate of 91%, and the level of social spending the GOP supported in the fifties, Ike and every republican in the house and the senate would be called socialist and possibly communist by FOX, Beck, and Limbaugh.
Far from communist, these people were patriotic in every way. They had bled and scarified to win the war and protect our country, and they understood economic patriotism was just as important as blood and guts patriotism. If those Republicans still existed I would probably vote for them. As a life long Democrat I do not say those words lightly. It's too bad that type of Republican is extinct.
The GOP is its own worst enemy. With their policies to maintain and increase the concentration of wealth, they are slowly and surely decreasing their base of support. Wealth has become concentrated to levels not seen since the Great Depression. The result is more and more people scraping fewer and fewer crumbs. The GOP, in the past, was good at "the message" convincing middle class people to vote against their self-interest. More and more people are waking up to the charade.
The swamp of the GOP voting base is draining fast. The party's problems are bad enough with the gulf between classes, add in their growing friction with anyone who isn't an angry white male, and the intolerant social policy, and it looks like the wheels are about to come off.
One would think they would align closely with the middle class and poor to be able to grow and maintain a loyal base. They have to change their point of reference to see the benefits of enabling people to climb the ladder and educate themselves. The more people they can pull into the middle and upper classes the more people will vote for them.
Instead of promoting policies that insure jobs and opportunity are sent overseas, pay is pushed down, employee benefits are cut, and collective bargaining is outlawed, they should become the party of, "we can help you achieve success".
The view is too narrow, and the status quo is too comfortable for the power elite to want or need to change. Over the next few years the time is ripe for a new more moderate opposition party to take hold and replace the teetering GOP. If the GOP doesn't have the ability to evolve it will simply die. In it's current form, it will not be missed.
10 things you didn't hear from Obama's SOTU address:
1. How do you like they way I closed down Gitmo?
2. How do you like the way I snuffed out the evil Patriot Act?
3. How do you like the way I tried those terrorists in our Court system?
4. How do you like my new ethics and transparency?
5. How do you like all the Jobs I created?
6. How do you like the way I brought the deficit down in 3 years?
7. How do you like the way I helped the poor and elderly by keeping the gas prices down and the dollar strong so they don't have to as much for gas and everything else they have to buy with the dollar like Food?
8. How do like the way I lowered health care premiums so far? And How do you like your future new insurance agents, the IRS?
9. How do you like the way I brought those evil CIA interrogators to justice? Huh?
10. How do like the Obama economy? Huh? Huh? Huh? Huh????
And with Obama there is always many more...
11. How do you like the way I leaked sensitive information from the White Houseto to make me look good?
12. How do you like the way me and my buddy Holder are stiff arming congress in our failed Fast and Furious debacle?
13. How do you like my dictator move circumventing congress and pandering for the illegal vote by allowing them to steal more American jobs????
14. How do like the way I used Executive Privilege to cover my fast and furious debacle???
15. How do like the way I sidestepped my lying and cover up of Benghazi....with the help of my media....
Obama - the empty suit president for the ignorant voters...
Latinos would do well to remember that the alleged interest in immigration reform is only being considered by a handful of Republicans and the wing nut right is still in firm control. Rubio is their front man being used to mask the real face of the GOP. I don't think Florida voters will buy into that scam. As far as Gov.Scott goes He's been a lousy governor and we won't forget how he deliberately tried to suppress the vote in the last election by cutting the early voting days. I even know people who voted for this guy and don't ever intend to vote for him again. The GOP has a well earned image problem that's going to be hard to overcome. As an independent voter I would have to see some very big and convincing changes to start voting for them again. I don't see any real changes coming just a lot of smoke and mirrors.
XMarine: Thanks for your service; but I thought "once a Marine; always a Marine". Anyway, I am a conservative. My perception of the present Republican party is that they want to appear to be centrists...that does not fit well with my conservative principles....I just wish that a Conservative Party would replace the Republican Party.
Republicans will combine their love of gun carrying and hold your ground law with voter intimidation by having all their fake intimidator types walk around the outside polling places with their big gun bulging out of their coats or pockets, then they won't have to change the voter laws that the constitution will shoot down. They almost went that far this year in some states with poll monitors, next they will be packing, probably all bald shaved head goteed supremacist drones.
Rubio shot his wad on the night of the "Sorry State of the Union" circus. Much of the stuff that came out of his mouth was false, and he spent more time campaigning than he did discussing the POTUS's fairy tale.