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In the days leading up to President Barack Obama unveiling his gun-violence proposals -- a first chance to signal his intended path forward -- no one was entirely sure what to expect.
Would the characteristically cautious Obama go incremental, putting forth measures intended to have a chance at passing Congress? Or would he go bold? The answer wound up being the latter, with the president making a sweeping call to action on guns -- the broadest proposals in a generation.
Go big or play it safe is a calculus all second-term presidents make when they’re fresh off a re-election, emboldened by the satisfaction that a majority of voters approved enough of their first term to send them back to the White House, yet experienced enough to understand the pitfalls of the legislative fights ahead.
Like many of his predecessors, Obama is exuding a newfound confidence as he begins his second term. His gun-control push, combined with a narrower approach to Afghanistan, contentious national-security nominations, and harder lines in dealing with House Republicans, foreshadows a president -- free from electoral politics -- who appears ready to shed some of the pragmatism that marked his first term. It signals that while he may remain open to deals, Obama likely will feel less inclined to spend significant time pursuing them with an entrenched opposition.
TODAY's Lester Holt reports from Washington D.C. on how the struggles and victories of President Obama's first term have set the stage for opportunities of the second.
“It makes sense, historically,” said Michael Beschloss, a presidential historian and a NBC News contributor. “There is more of a sense of command. He speaks more confidently. There’s just a difference between becoming president after being a senator for four years and being the most powerful person in the world for four years.”
Barbara Perry, a senior fellow at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center, agreed.
“He has this kind of calm, self-confidence, cool, to his enemies bordering on an arrogant demeanor, and that may be coming out now,” Perry said. “He seems bolder than coming in.”
Obama's newfound command style is typical for a second-term president, Beschloss said. He pointed to similarities between Obama’s presence now and Bill Clinton in 1997 and George W. Bush in 2005, after both were also re-elected.
“America tends to treat two-term presidents very differently,” Beschloss said. “In terms of body language, this is a different dimension.”
Presidents in their first terms are often self-conscious, he added, about whether they will earn the legitimacy granted in the annals of history to those who win re-election.
“He’s proved that he’s not a historical fluke,” he said of Obama, noting that all presidents wonder if they are just that.
A strong position
Obama is in an especially strong position for a second term, considering that he accomplished a signature legislative achievement -- heath care -- in his first term, Beschloss noted.
“He is less encumbered than many second-term presidents are,” he said.
According to Beschloss, Most presidents hold off on a push for a major legislative achievement until the fifth year, when they believe they will be free of electoral politics. Think John F. Kennedy and civil rights.
“Most presidents I can think of would have waited to do health care in a second term,” Beschloss said, adding that Obama, though, “did the opposite” likely because he realized he might not have the same structural advantages again of large Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate.
“That makes this as a second-term president a little different. He’s not girding for that kind of fight.”
Perry also points to the Supreme Court upholding the health-care law as a turning point.
“It had to show the president, ‘I really do get this system,’” she said. “I just don’t think people make enough of that victory.”
Couple that with Obama’s decided victory in November, and “that has to infuse him with confidence,” she added.
Obama will have to make sure the health care law is implemented well, but he can turn his legislative focus to guns and immigration, both areas where they expect Obama will go bold.
Another reason for the shift, Beschloss said, is Obama is no longer in crisis mode the way he was when he came into office in 2009.
“You’re probably getting much more of a view of the true person rather than someone responding to crisis after crisis,” Beschloss said.
Comparing to JFK
Beschloss and Perry see similarities to Kennedy in how Obama has evolved as president. Like Kennedy, Obama was young and a relative political neophyte when he took office. Neither was known for or seemed to enjoy the back slapping or arm twisting seen as necessary for major legislative victories in the way Lyndon Johnson or Bill Clinton did.
But both learned from mistakes.
“He does seem to have that quality, a JFK quality,” Perry said. “They aren’t natural-born politicians; they have charisma, but aloof. Personality-wise, they’re very similar. He learned from his mistakes, and I think Obama has that capacity, and that is a major skill for a president. You didn’t get to see that in a second term for Kennedy.”
Beschloss added, “You sure want a president with a sharp learning curve. Kennedy’s the best example of that.”
Perry said perhaps Obama deserves the criticism that he’s not sociable or seen as good negotiator. “He may be aloof,” she said. “His personality doesn’t lend to backslapping.”
But structure may matter more. Both Perry and Beschloss believe Obama has taken away from his first term that he doesn't have a good-faith negotiating partner in the GOP and that since it will only continue, as the GOP looks to who can become the next GOP president, Obama won't try as hard to woo Republicans.
“I think, and he has said this, he was optimistic and tried to improve the relationship,” Beschloss said, but now he “feels more chastened, and you can see it in his actions.”
Perry added, “I don’t see us moving much beyond the Mitch McConnell statement from four years ago.”
As Obama was beginning his first term, the Republican Senate leader from Kentucky famously proclaimed, “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.”
“Now the goal of the GOP will be to put a Republican back in the White House after eight years, so anything they can do to short circuit this president’s agenda, they will do,” Perry said. “And that’s not a criticism. That’s just the way the system has operated since we’ve had two parties, since the founders walked out of the signing of the Constitution.”
The question now is “will this newfound confidence get him over that hurdle?” Perry said.
It only makes sense then, they said, that Obama will try and play an “outside game” to try and leverage pressure on Congress.
Clock is ticking
But there remain warning signs for the president. The economy is still in a fragile recovery and many second terms have been marred by scandal or mismanagement (Watergate, Iran-Contra, Monica Lewinsky, Katrina and Iraq).
There are also the unknowns. Obama had to deal with several unexpected major events in his first term, from the BP oil spill to the Arab Spring to the debt-ceiling crisis.
In addition, for Americans, “familiarity breeds contempt,” Perry notes. Nearly every president since World War II, except Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, has become less popular in their second term.
“Americans grow weary of just about everyone and everything,” Perry said. “We use up politicians and celebrities, and sports figures … It’s an unusual personage who can overcome that handicap, but Obama is one of the few presidents who has the ability to do that.”
She also points out the irony that, like with Reagan and Clinton, “The farther we get away from them [presidents], the more we like them.”
The biggest hurdle, though, in Obama’s second term is there's only so much time to get it all done.
In fact, presidents who win reelection only have about six months before they become a lame duck, Beschloss said. Elected officials start thinking about their own reelections in the midterms. The parties start looking beyond the president to the upcoming open presidential election. It’s something Johnson understood well.
“LBJ said, ‘We’ve got exactly six months,’” Beschloss said of Johnson after winning election in 1965. “Most of what you and I think of as the Great Society passed in the first six months.”
And in Obama’s case, every day spent on fiscal fights with House Republicans is one less day spent on any major initiatives the president wants passed.
Leave a Comment:
"The latest posting from the Bureau of Public Debt at the Treasury Department shows the National Debt now stands at $15.566 trillion. It was $10.626 trillion on President Bush's last day in office, which coincided with President Obama's first day" O boy 4 more years.
Broken,
Of course the fact that Obama had to book 2 wars ($2.3 Trllion) and Medicare Part D ($2.2 trillion) had nothing to do with that, right?
Nope that crap was done under Bush.Obama's crap is on top of Bush's.
And Obamas first year was't budgeted by Bush?
Hello?
billy bob
I realize your cornbread aint done in the middle but the first year was budgeted by Bush but you "overlooked" Obama's other 3 years.
Yes, broker1, the deficit stayed high, but obviously most of that was set in the Bush administration. All Obama really added was the stimulus, which was necessary and temporary. It is very dangerous to cut the deficit by too much during an economic slump, but it has been going down slightly.
broker1...Let's see...TARP bailout in September 2008 followed by a 2nd bailout in 2009 of some of rich, capitalistic banks in the US who should have been allowed to fall on their asses and learn from their failures. Then, the bills from Halliburton and Blackwater came pouring in, in excess of billions. Do the math...Is there a magic wand to repair the damage in Iraq as war reparations? Was a $200 billion embassy the size of 4 football fields necessary in Iraq? Why was there never an investigation into that missing $200 million in Iraq in 2003?
Nice that you think this President can walk on water but you never considered for a single minute that Bush was spending like a drunken sailor to feed Halliburton and Blackwater and a host of Texas military industrialists more of our tax dollars.
ewent - again you are 'underinformed' - the Clinton Administration removed the Glass Steagul act which prevented the big banks from dealing in securities - the bailout of the big banks resulted from the push by Democrats to make the dream of homeownership accessible to everyone. The required Fannie and Freddie to lower their loan requirements...even going so far as to make it illegal to not includet wellfare money from the government when determining a borrowers qualifications. The banks went on to package these bad mortgages into financial instruments for re-sale. The whole thing blew up as the financial meltdown when unqualifed buyers began to default in droves driving down the value of all the financial instruments they made up. The Bush administration tried to address this situation during the last two years of his presidency but was struck down by a Democrat controlled congress and in particular Barney Frank - whose lover was an exectuive at Fannie.
S Allison....
It is not the liberals who are angry...
Take a look at your cohorts....HOPEISGONE, SLODON, CONVENIENTLIESYOUBELIEVE, LEFTISFACIST, just to name a few. Most angry, most name-callers, most name bastardization, on and on...
Funny thing is jobs aren't mentioned as top priorities for second term. Maybe now people will start hiring.
Broken,
Of course the fact that Obama had to book 2 wars ($2.3 Trllion) and Medicare Part D ($2.2 trillion) had nothing to do with that, right?
Jobs have always been a priority for Obama. McConnell's priority? Making Obama a 1-term president. Boner's priority...getting a tan.
Yes, we have been complaining about the debt for 30 years. Most of the recent debt has been from the Bush tax cuts, the Bush wars, and the Bush economic collapse.
broker1..."People" don't hire..."businesses" generally do the hiring. In 2001, Bush doled out billions to corporations to hire and create jobs...that is what that funding was specifically intended for. In 2004, the GAO reported that of those corporations who helped themselves to that funding, less than 1% hired or created jobs. That funding was used to pay down corporate debts and for vulture venture capital projects. Seems like misuse of public funds to me. Paybacks are a bitch aren't they?
It is not the responsibility of individual taxpayers to grow wealth for 1% of the population while it bankrupts the other 99%. The slime balls of Corporate Welfare have been using our tax dollars to pay their bills and their incoming revenues to increase their salaries. Too bad that hugely unsustainable, isn't it? Read: Fed up Middle Class.
'SayWhat' you are a classic example of a liberal who does not want to debate policy but instead likes to name call -you may be a bright person but you don't send that message with your personal insults. Your type of exchange reduces this forum to a level that ultimately pushes intelligent thoughtful people not to bother contributing...as the cliche goes 'birds of a feather do like to flock together'...perhaps we should create a forum for you Feisty and some of your other friends to squak on.
Ummm,
What name-calling? Another of your lies?
Say what - if you check your earlier posts you will see calling me stupid a number of times along with other perjoratives.
I never called you stupid, that is another lie.
I said "Stupid is as stupid does"
I asked if you were that stupid....
Neither line called you stupid. You prove that on your own. Remember, you claimed 47% approval rating, then ARGUED about it?
'SayWhat' perhaps you could set an example for the others you mention who are name callers etc. Just because you have company it doesn't make it more appealing. Just as one of your stars Hillary says - It takes a village - perhaps you can help create a village of civility and thoughtful discussion
Still waiting for you to tell us what republican leader John Boehner's approval raing is Allison. I'll even accept your lie that Obama's is 47% You are the one putting significance on these approval ratings, ok, what is republican leader John Boehner's approval rating?
Once again you deflect and spin off in another direction.
What name-calling did I do?
You being a liar is not my fault, but my proving you a liar is my fault.
Sure, let's reinvent the wheel while we're at it.
Leave the wars out of the debt discussion - it was bi-partisan congress who voted to go to war including such luminaries as Nancy Pelosi and Hillary Clinton. The merit of the Iraq are can be debated till doomsday. What needs focused on is the current rate of spending and future spending plans - no country in history has had the financial means to become a socialist utopia - it simply is not possible.
Leave the wars out of the debt discussion?? Lol, yes, you would like that, wouldn't you Allison. Both sides agreed to go to war but it was the Bush administration that decided to cut taxes while fighting them. Wars have ALWAYS been funded by tax increases, especially on the top earners, BOTH sides have always done this, up until Dubya that is! Poor people fight and die in these wars, rich people can damn well pay for them, especially when you consider that many of them PROFIT off of war.
S Allison...
WHOA NELLY! Leave the wars out? It was bi-partison becausse of the lies told by Bush/Cheney. General Colin Powell verified that when he admitted it was based on lies!
Can you post anything without lying?
Allison, you really have swallowed the right wing spin. Iraq was ENTIRELY the Bush administrations fault. Yes, too many Democrats voted for the AUF because they were afraid of political repercussions, but to call it "bipartisan" is such nonsense.
There were no Bush/ Cheney lies regarding WMD's - the decision was based on the best information at the time. A lie is Obama going out and for three weeks and claiming Benghazi was an organic event based on a video - and stands in front of the United Nations repeating this when he knows the truth. That is about as blatant a lie as anyone could tell.
Colin Powell called them lies. A rose by any other name is still a rose.
SayWhat - I don't think I've ever come on here that you are not on and name calling with someone - intermixed with some thoughtful arguments - but they lose all weight surrounded by your angry insults.
Perhaps if the liars and ranters would speak like they had a degree of intelligence, the anger level on all sides might drop?
Leroy - I don't know what Boehners individual approval is but I do know all of Congress is pitifully low - and yes much much lower than President Obama - but if you follow the whole debt crisis and now debt ceiling there is no willingness to compromise on the presidents part. He is very adept at painting the Republicans as the problem - but they have shown a willingness to compromise he has not. I really think he has not wanted deals as he wants to continue to paint the Republicans as the problem in an effort to try and get them out of the majority in 2014.
"but they have shown a willingness to compromise he has not."
Obviously not true of the Tea party faction.
That is total hogwash Allison, sorry. Obama has bent over backwards to work with the republicans who refused to compromise at all and who's only goal was to make Obama and the country fail. They even voted against THEIR OWN IDEAS to deny Obama success. THIS is what happened and THIS is why the republicans' approval rating is so much lower than Obama's.
Looks like Mein Furher has started his parade down Pennsylvania Avenue!
Not a name-caller?
Well I have to run ladies and gents - so you of the left persuasion will not be as entertained when your posts are met with agreement. Perhaps some more conservatives will be on soon to liven things up and serve as scapegoats for your never ending anger. Like we have always said THE LEFT NEVER SLEEPS.
Running scared? You should.
He truly will inherit a mess this time.
Thanks to the T-Party.
obama's in the perfect situation...the gop has branded itself the bad kid...and it will get blamed for everything. the four years of obstructionist has ever so slowly shaped a new opinion for the gop. old white men that can't compromise. Isn't that what they want the gop and teaparty. To stand up to obama .
one problem they have the lowest favorable ever folks ever.....26% and the highest unfavorable 49%.... mr. pres is at a 54% that's double for you republicans that don't believe in math either unless it says what you like.. my opinion is that obama will go big i mean why not because every problem the country needs fixed will have his attempts spit on by the republicans... and everytime they do americans have a chance to form and opinion of gop or reienforce the old white men that put party first well after beating up on obama no compromise...
slowly demographics and this new brand takes hold. the gop fights a war on two fronts first the war within it's owe party for its soul. and with obama..
before it stands a chance against obama and or the dems ...it must win the civil war withing...
S Allison
"Mein Furher"? Really?
And once again, you lose whatever thoughtful credibility you may have accumulated.
Good thing he is not a name-caller like he accused me of being.
Wow, it's just amazing how blatant and obvious the lies are that spew from the wingnut's pieholes. Everything they say is either a deliberate distortion or an out and out lie. If they had to be truthful they wouldn't be able to say anything at all!
hey LEROY...what is exactly this spew you're referring to? Give us an example
This president has no competence to govern this country. He should go back to Kenya to impose all his socialists policies, America does not need a dictator like him.
Lol...
farid kodsi that maybe true but as rodney dangerfield the comedian once said and relates to this situation........."if you want to feel skinny hang out with fat people" the gop makes obama look quite good in comparison and the favorability rating 26% GOP TO OBAMA'S 54% say that more confident in him that the alternative... huh....
obama gets to be the reasonable man this four years....a populist moderate and still the gop and teaparty will just fight him on every idea....like obamacare which was championed by the heritage foundation newt gingrich and brought to life by romney.... a republican idea...33 votes in the house against it and none for jobs...wonder why boehner and the gop house have a 9% approval and labeled the worst house ever..
there obsessed...with defending obama even if it means ruining the country by putting politics and party first...
is any of this wrong...you may bitch about it conservatives but it's true you choice your path your failing are you're own doing self inflicted.....
marc....and the Democrat majority/led Senate has a 12% approval rating because......??
Congress has just a 19 percent approval rating; 37 percent approve of House Democrats, and 24 percent approve of House Republicans. Additionally, 67 percent believe that Republican leadership is doing too little to give ground in negotiations, compared to 48 percent who say that is true of the president
Proverb;
Give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day
Teach a man to fish and he'll eat for a lifetime
Obama's Take on the Proverb;
Give a person a Welfare Check, Food Stamps, Free Cell Phone With Unlimited Minutes, Aid for Dependent Children, Section 8 Housing, Medicaid, Free Birth Control, 99 Weeks Unemployment, and he'll vote Democratic for the rest of his life and even after he's Dead....
Can't wait for 4 years of this........
yeah....give a man someone else's fish.......
Hopeisgone...
You would wash your armpits with the fish....and it would help the smell dramatically
wow the people can eat all those SOUR GRAPES FROM YOU LOSER'S,,,
Tony Z and Say What - I wish you two would go to a private chat room and try to work out your hostilities. there is no reason to continue to denigrate each other. We believe in different things, but I bet you both love America, love your families and do nice things for other people. so why don't you two start the ball rolling and try to get along with respect for one another.
If Tony Z will stop lying about Demoocrats, I will stop telling the truth about Tony Z
Tony Z- LOL isn't it amazing that President Obama started welfare, food stamps and all these programs you seem to hate, and how many of your family and friends are on the "dole"? LOL!
Politifact announced the following:
1. President Obama has kept 48% of his promises from his first Inauguration
2. President Obama has partially kept 26% of his promises from the first Inauguration
3. The total of 74% is among the highest ever.
Only the left would count "partially kept" promises.LMAO
Of all of the promises which ones made any sense?
One thing he did do is raise our debt and taxes more then any other President in recent history.
I really can't believe you people don't realize what the man has taken away and you just roll over and accept it.
Can't wait for all of the surprises he has in store for the next 4 years!!!!!!
Broken...
Blame Politifact.....remember the GOP does not believe in facts.
no obama wins' every debate now the gop has labeled themselves as the problem the people said so in the election the approval rating for gop 26% is the lowest in history 49 dissaprroval...obama 54% favorable.... boehner house 9%.... and in general people want comprimise...the gop and teaparty disagree with the vast majority of the public... obama stakes out position in the middle following the polls aka the gun debate...which pushes the gop further and further into crazy land... and makes em look worst...the gop hazs been pushed to the extreme... and it shows... he has been brilliant at making them the loony right no offense to normal right people that want to be honest about what's going on... he's a moderate,,,,,,
Yeah Marc
He got a whole 51% of the vote. I urge you to look at what his average approval rating for his first term is. Only Carter and Ford rank lower. I still can't get over the fact that the President that got Bin Laden only got 51% of the vote.Damn.
a black man with 51% of the vote in this country if he were white he'ld a gotten 60%
w. said he had all this goodwill from the election and he actually lost the popular vote and the election in 2000.. winning's winning... you get the trophy,,
clinton got 43 % and created 23 million jobs with the longest economy expansion in u.s. history....
Obama is the first president to get 51% in both terms since Eisenhower.
broker 332 electroral votes that's dam near a landslide...
25% of dems in the first obama win were polled and said they were reluctant to vote for a black....the fact that he obama won just shows he's one smart kenyan...hahhahah if you gop types are going to continue crying for four more years let me know...i thinking of put my money into the kleenex stocks...hahahhahahahhahahahah
just think if the gop aka the house of boehner help 9% approval...there like having a great offense but thenhaving a crapping defense if boehner did anything anything at all on jobs etc. etc. imagine where this country would be.... the gop is the weakest link....
Say What,
no fair using Clinton's arithmetic to make a point. .............LOL
enjoy the sour grapes guys.....wait till hillary wins in 16,,,,
remember that obama has kept all of us safe from the biggest danger we have ever faced...ROMENY....HAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAH PROMISE KEPT