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In the days leading up to President Barack Obama unveiling his gun-violence proposals -- a first chance to signal his intended path forward -- no one was entirely sure what to expect.
Would the characteristically cautious Obama go incremental, putting forth measures intended to have a chance at passing Congress? Or would he go bold? The answer wound up being the latter, with the president making a sweeping call to action on guns -- the broadest proposals in a generation.
Go big or play it safe is a calculus all second-term presidents make when they’re fresh off a re-election, emboldened by the satisfaction that a majority of voters approved enough of their first term to send them back to the White House, yet experienced enough to understand the pitfalls of the legislative fights ahead.
Like many of his predecessors, Obama is exuding a newfound confidence as he begins his second term. His gun-control push, combined with a narrower approach to Afghanistan, contentious national-security nominations, and harder lines in dealing with House Republicans, foreshadows a president -- free from electoral politics -- who appears ready to shed some of the pragmatism that marked his first term. It signals that while he may remain open to deals, Obama likely will feel less inclined to spend significant time pursuing them with an entrenched opposition.
TODAY's Lester Holt reports from Washington D.C. on how the struggles and victories of President Obama's first term have set the stage for opportunities of the second.
“It makes sense, historically,” said Michael Beschloss, a presidential historian and a NBC News contributor. “There is more of a sense of command. He speaks more confidently. There’s just a difference between becoming president after being a senator for four years and being the most powerful person in the world for four years.”
Barbara Perry, a senior fellow at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center, agreed.
“He has this kind of calm, self-confidence, cool, to his enemies bordering on an arrogant demeanor, and that may be coming out now,” Perry said. “He seems bolder than coming in.”
Obama's newfound command style is typical for a second-term president, Beschloss said. He pointed to similarities between Obama’s presence now and Bill Clinton in 1997 and George W. Bush in 2005, after both were also re-elected.
“America tends to treat two-term presidents very differently,” Beschloss said. “In terms of body language, this is a different dimension.”
Presidents in their first terms are often self-conscious, he added, about whether they will earn the legitimacy granted in the annals of history to those who win re-election.
“He’s proved that he’s not a historical fluke,” he said of Obama, noting that all presidents wonder if they are just that.
A strong position
Obama is in an especially strong position for a second term, considering that he accomplished a signature legislative achievement -- heath care -- in his first term, Beschloss noted.
“He is less encumbered than many second-term presidents are,” he said.
According to Beschloss, Most presidents hold off on a push for a major legislative achievement until the fifth year, when they believe they will be free of electoral politics. Think John F. Kennedy and civil rights.
“Most presidents I can think of would have waited to do health care in a second term,” Beschloss said, adding that Obama, though, “did the opposite” likely because he realized he might not have the same structural advantages again of large Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate.
“That makes this as a second-term president a little different. He’s not girding for that kind of fight.”
Perry also points to the Supreme Court upholding the health-care law as a turning point.
“It had to show the president, ‘I really do get this system,’” she said. “I just don’t think people make enough of that victory.”
Couple that with Obama’s decided victory in November, and “that has to infuse him with confidence,” she added.
Obama will have to make sure the health care law is implemented well, but he can turn his legislative focus to guns and immigration, both areas where they expect Obama will go bold.
Another reason for the shift, Beschloss said, is Obama is no longer in crisis mode the way he was when he came into office in 2009.
“You’re probably getting much more of a view of the true person rather than someone responding to crisis after crisis,” Beschloss said.
Comparing to JFK
Beschloss and Perry see similarities to Kennedy in how Obama has evolved as president. Like Kennedy, Obama was young and a relative political neophyte when he took office. Neither was known for or seemed to enjoy the back slapping or arm twisting seen as necessary for major legislative victories in the way Lyndon Johnson or Bill Clinton did.
But both learned from mistakes.
“He does seem to have that quality, a JFK quality,” Perry said. “They aren’t natural-born politicians; they have charisma, but aloof. Personality-wise, they’re very similar. He learned from his mistakes, and I think Obama has that capacity, and that is a major skill for a president. You didn’t get to see that in a second term for Kennedy.”
Beschloss added, “You sure want a president with a sharp learning curve. Kennedy’s the best example of that.”
Perry said perhaps Obama deserves the criticism that he’s not sociable or seen as good negotiator. “He may be aloof,” she said. “His personality doesn’t lend to backslapping.”
But structure may matter more. Both Perry and Beschloss believe Obama has taken away from his first term that he doesn't have a good-faith negotiating partner in the GOP and that since it will only continue, as the GOP looks to who can become the next GOP president, Obama won't try as hard to woo Republicans.
“I think, and he has said this, he was optimistic and tried to improve the relationship,” Beschloss said, but now he “feels more chastened, and you can see it in his actions.”
Perry added, “I don’t see us moving much beyond the Mitch McConnell statement from four years ago.”
As Obama was beginning his first term, the Republican Senate leader from Kentucky famously proclaimed, “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.”
“Now the goal of the GOP will be to put a Republican back in the White House after eight years, so anything they can do to short circuit this president’s agenda, they will do,” Perry said. “And that’s not a criticism. That’s just the way the system has operated since we’ve had two parties, since the founders walked out of the signing of the Constitution.”
The question now is “will this newfound confidence get him over that hurdle?” Perry said.
It only makes sense then, they said, that Obama will try and play an “outside game” to try and leverage pressure on Congress.
Clock is ticking
But there remain warning signs for the president. The economy is still in a fragile recovery and many second terms have been marred by scandal or mismanagement (Watergate, Iran-Contra, Monica Lewinsky, Katrina and Iraq).
There are also the unknowns. Obama had to deal with several unexpected major events in his first term, from the BP oil spill to the Arab Spring to the debt-ceiling crisis.
In addition, for Americans, “familiarity breeds contempt,” Perry notes. Nearly every president since World War II, except Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, has become less popular in their second term.
“Americans grow weary of just about everyone and everything,” Perry said. “We use up politicians and celebrities, and sports figures … It’s an unusual personage who can overcome that handicap, but Obama is one of the few presidents who has the ability to do that.”
She also points out the irony that, like with Reagan and Clinton, “The farther we get away from them [presidents], the more we like them.”
The biggest hurdle, though, in Obama’s second term is there's only so much time to get it all done.
In fact, presidents who win reelection only have about six months before they become a lame duck, Beschloss said. Elected officials start thinking about their own reelections in the midterms. The parties start looking beyond the president to the upcoming open presidential election. It’s something Johnson understood well.
“LBJ said, ‘We’ve got exactly six months,’” Beschloss said of Johnson after winning election in 1965. “Most of what you and I think of as the Great Society passed in the first six months.”
And in Obama’s case, every day spent on fiscal fights with House Republicans is one less day spent on any major initiatives the president wants passed.
Leave a Comment:
If he doesn't end the "war on drugs", he will have failed the American people, failed the Constitution he claims to serve, and will tarnish his "legacy"..... no matter what else he does.
bram1...The war on drugs goes back to Reagan. Shouldn't you take up that BS with Reagan's wife? After all, she was the one who spent $500,000 on White House dishes during the Reagan Recession and she was the one who said all we had to do about the drug war was to "Just say no!"
Under Obama the number of people collecting SS disability is at a all time high. For every person collecting SS disability there is only 13 people working.
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/first-term-americans-collecting-disability-increased-1385418-now-1-each-13-full-time
Common...
"there is only 13 people working."
There is?
I was going to leave that alone.
People get testy, when Mr. Spell and Mr. Punctuation come to make comments.
But he did reference his source.
Blame Mr Grammar
gratuitous comments equals confidence as in voting present equals profiles in courage are you kidding me? who is listening to him period?
Tom...
The United States of America is listening....his approval rating of 56% shows that. Thanks for playing
Republican to thinking equates to trichinosis to pork.
Tom...Your attempts at uppercrust verbiage isn't remotely qualified. The First Amendment speaks louder than Grammar and Punctuation Snobbery. Sorry.
I have voted for republicans and democrats over my lifetime and can honestly say that many times I have been on the loosing side. I did not vote for Obama but this contempt for him by the conservatives has got to stop. If they ever get themselves together again, how do they think their next elected president will be treated by the opposition? I am a moderate so really don't care but I would think they would. Conservatives nor liberals are ever going to have a clear majority and a lot of people like me just watch the behaviour of the candidates. You can always get along with the people that agree with you. The test is how well can you get along with the people who disagree with you. Both sides have failed miserably in that area.
) -" The number of Americans age 16 or older who decided not to work or even to seek a job increased by 8,332,000 to a record 88,839,000 in President Barack Obama’s first term, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics." YEEHAW!
You are stating there are 88 million unemployed?
He saw it on the internet, it must be true.
Bonjour.........
broker1...Tell you what...You cut your salary in half and then your company will be able to afford to hire and create jobs. Poor lil Wall Streeters....Madoffing their lives away like slaves to Big Moolah. Money isn't a sign of success...achievement is...that's why President Obama is more successful than your kind will ever be.
Fact of the matter is they don't know what he is!
Will4203 - the financial collapse has the hands of Bill Clinton and democrats like Barney Frank all over it - what led to hour demise was the repeal of Glass Steagull Act by Bill Clinton and then the push by the democrat party to help all achieve home ownership - they instructed Fannie and Freddie to loosen their lending rules which, in brief, utlitmately brought down the economy by building a housing bubble based on bad lending principles coupled with packaging of these bad loans on wall street. Bush saw what was happening and tried in vain to get the Democrat led congress during the last two years of his presidency to put on the brakes - they chose to look the other way as it was ideological for them to pull up all the lower economic folks into home ownership. They even went to so far as to make it illegal for a bank to exclude welfare or government money from the income used to qualify a loan. It was nuts and led us all to misery.
Graham, Leech, Bliley Act of 1999 ... look it up.
George W.....Now where did I put that VETO stamp? I better take some more vacation time (1046 days, almost 3 years) and look for it. I can use my private taxi, Air Force One!
hour demise ?
It was exactly 2:37pm
More Arrogance, more divisiveness and more habitual lying - some may view it as confidence but those who look closely at what he is doing and check the facts see him for what he is. His current approval rating is 49% - he will do nothing to bring the country together...but instead will insist on a path of ideology trying to do as much as he can thru executive order because he is not willing to compromise and find common ground. He will speak today of lofty hope to bring us together and diminish partisanship when he himself is the most partisan. He is not a leader in the mold of a Lyndon Johnson or Bill Clinton who knew how to work accross the aisle and compromise. This is an egotistical child and more correctly a 'punk' who either does not know how to negotiate or finds it incompatible with his rigid outlook on how he, Obama, wants to change the country into his idea of a utopia. It is a scary tale of how a gifted and clever speaker can convince people he is out for their best interest when nothing could be further from the truth. The left uses the call of racism to any and all who try and bring to light the truth about this man and where he would ulitmately like to lead us.
The word you struggle to find is "uppity".
S Allison...
You posted that rant at #310 and we proved you were lying! Why re-post the same lie on the same page?
You are really that stupid?
Say - I did have the approval rating number wrong - but if you look at all the polls it hovers closer to 50% - the country is pretty divided. One glaring number is the continued high numbers for those that oppose Obamacare - we are stuck with a program the majority do not want - only hope the Republicans can withold some of the funding needed to fully implement.
Gallup = 54%
Washington Post 56% add together, 110% -----divide by 2 = 55%
Apparently the majority DO want Obamacare....he was reelected....and in the House 0-33 to repeal.
You meant to say a more arrogant Obama right?
I forgot to mention Lazy - have you ever looked at his daily schedule that is put out? He is without a doubt the laziest presdent we have ever had. Shiftless and lazy.
Why use a dog whistle when a bull horn is SO much more effective.
gizmowiz..."arrogant black man" ...Isn't that what you really intended to post? Just like the post following..."lazy black man" is what S. Allison intended to post."
Your plantation mentalities are stunning. Don't bother to deny it. It always makes me laugh when white supremacists try and make a bi-racial president look stupid, arrogant and lazy...the traditional plantation attitude of truly lazy plantation mentalities of the Pre-Civil War breed. They barely get their asses out of bed by noon and work is the real four letter word they fear most.
Gee, I would have thought 1046 days on vacation (almost 3 full years) and include a 5-week long vacation would have indicated some laziness.
It is OK for a Republican president to relax, not a Democratic one...why is that?
For the same reason it's okay for a Republican president's family to have protection but not okay for this president. They do a pretty scummy job of hiding their racism, don't they?
ewent - come the race thing again? Does that ever get boring for you?
Paul from NM...Wrong...The House knows it won't shoot itself in the foot by not extending the debt limit. If they do, they will have single handedly affected the global markets negatively. So...let's see how confident the House Republicans will be when every industrialized nation takes the hit from the consequences of their governmental obstruction. In case you think the rest of the world missed it, they blame Republicans for the state of the US economy...not President Obama or the Democrats. Why? Because, they know in facts and documentation what the cowards of the right can't admit...It was the Republicans who destroyed the healthy US economy Clinton left in just 8 Republican wastefully spending years.
How about a magic wand to stop billions flowing to Texas, Alaska and the rest of the right wing red Moocher states. President Obama is quite adept at turning the tables on the big mouths bitching about the deficit...He will veto any more funding to Big Oil they never needed in the first place. He will squeeze those bitching the loudest about the reductions in their obscene salaries. He will turn the tables and demand the states that take the most federal tax revenues, start using state taxes first before they beg help from other states paying federal taxes and getting back a fraction in ROI red states have been all too used to getting.
Well there you have it. General Powell was right. Racism is alive and well.
billy bob philly...White supremacists have had it out for the blacks in America the minute they had to work their own plantations. Then, they blamed their having to break a sweat on their former slaves. Think about it. These whites are the laziest breed in the US. It's why they believe in slave labor in the first place...get others to do the work they are too lazy to do. As if they are some kind of American royalty..yeah...right.
General Powell was right about a lot of things....it is sad Bush/Cheney did not listen to him
General Powell is the man we all hoped would run for president. If you study Colin Powell, you see that he believed the GOP was still the GOP of Eisenhower. When he realized what was really afoot, he saw himself in a cesspool of thieving CEOs like Cheney and Rice and Texan cronies like Brown, Meiers and Gonzalez.
General Powell is perhaps the very last of the Eisenhower Republicans with any sense of honor. Today's GOP has blackened all that past Republicans have worked for in the name of King Grover of their Norquistian Kingdom.
ewent - there is no so called funding to big oil - that stopped long ago - it is a clever line by the libs but just untrue - the only funding there is are tax credits to small producers - not the big companies like Mobil or Exxon - these are totally misleading representations by the left because they sound good and support their never ending campaign mode.
S. Allison...YOu may choose to live in right wing la la land. I do not. Last May 2012, more than $12 billion was voted by House GOP majority to fund Big Oil. Hate to be the bearer of truth you righties cannot mentally process...but...in 2007, Bush also voted to dump 50% of the Exxon Valdez spill on taxpayers when Exxon had not paid one goddamn dime of that fine in 22 years. You need proof? Go to the legislative bills of the Bush Administration for 2007 and the House bills approved for 2012..if you have the raisins to do it.
nice try Billy Bob Philly - the democrats first line of defense is to yell racism when you critique Obama and his policies. Instead of debating policy the yell racism - very cowardly. Are only white people incompetent or misguided?
More gnashing of teeth and rending of garments.
Really? You forgot to mention watermelon and fried chicken.
It wasn't a "try". Your remarks are racist. Doesn't matter what my color is.
S. Allison...You posted a racist comment. Now admit it. I'll prove it was racist...Bush swaggered on the deck of a carrier in a flight jacket proclaiming "Mission Accomplished." Did you call him "arrogant?" You bet you didn't.
Let me guess why not...Right wingers are all a bunch of big babies who want what Bush stated publicly in 2003? "MY way or the highway." Right wingers can't face the reality they are destructive to this country when they show the world their hatred toward their own president? Right wingers can't get out of bed before noon without bitching because they are all such a bunch of sore losers?
S Alyson - the racism charge is all they have. But hey it look's like Barrack might also be, have you seen how many white men he has placed in his new cabinet?
Never mind I forgot, only republicans can be racist!
Republicans are like cockroaches...and should be dealt with accordingly!
Well...Most of you just don't get it because you're to easily thrown off track with the feel good crap. This President will bankrupt the US & YOU can explain that to your Grandkids!
If he wanted to bankrupt America, he could have simply done absolutely nothing in the first year of his first term.
The economy was in free fall. He could have simply allowed it to continue on the path that the GOP put it on.
That didn't happen.
Doug,
We were bankrupt before he was elected. Weren't you awake then?
The danger to America is not Barack Obama, but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the Presidency. It will be far easier to limit and undo the follies of an Obama presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to a depraved electorate willing to have such a man for their president. The problem is much deeper and far more serious than Mr. Obama, who is a mere symptom of what ails America . Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The Republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, 'merely a fool'. It is far less likely to survive a multitude of fools, such as those who made him their President.
That old translated Czech quote is getting old. You can use it to substitute in the name of anyone you don't like. Now you know how we felt about Bush.
gringo...Don't worry...the next president won't be a man....it will be a woman..what will the right bitch about then? Mrs. President is having a bad hair day? Her pantyhose has a run in it?
Your GOP doesn't have a viable candidate that can win in 2016 and they know it. They have one candidate whom they have already made big time enemies with...Chris Christie. He's the only Republican who could have a good shot but he is not a Norquistian by any stretch of the imagination.
I live in NJ...and Christie is not the man to try and push around. So to the bitchy bois of the right complaining about President Obama...go ahead...elect Christie. He won't take any guff from idiots of the right.
Yes Exxon is always right up there on the Leaderboard when it comes to paying income taxes to Uncle Sam.
That would be you and I, S Allison.
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2010/04/06/90299/exxon-tax/?mobile=nc
The system is broken, and big oil is part of the problem; Congress let's them get away with it.
Liberal lazy no goods act as if stupidity is a virtue.
And more gnashing of teeth and rending of garments.
Gringo...Liberals are lazy? You should thank your red state lucky stars the liberals work their asses off and don't lay around like Lil Abner and Daisy Mae do all day long in red states. Now for some shock and awe slash and burn facts. Alaska, a red states takes $1.72 for every day they pay in federal taxes. Texas, another red state gets $1.47 for every dollar they pay...Compare that to my state (NJ) 61 cents for every dollar we pay. NY, another liberal state, 62 cents for every dollar we pay.
It's damn time you lazy red staters stopped mooching off our states. You pay state taxes. Use your state taxes before you go begging for federal revenue the rest of the states have to pay double for your support. You have to get your asses out of bed at 5 AM, hop a bus or train by 6 AM and be at your job by 8 AM if you want to earn a living...You can't lay in bed until noon and hold out your red state conservative hands looking for the rest of the population to provide what your state taxes should.
Gringo - great post - such wise words - it is so true - we have to remind ourselves that the republic can survive him - the bigger challenge is educating the masses that would fall for a man like him.
The GOP is collapsing. And the right wing's angry rhetoric is being rejected.
S Allison have been proven to be lying repeatedly this morning. One would think he would wise up and keep quiet...
But, no, more lies, more rants....Stupid is as Stupid does.
There is plenty of self-righteous anger on both sides. Hence the polarization.
If Obama was even half the left-leaning liberal the far right accuses him of being their fear of him would almost be understandable. It would still not be an excuse for their vitriole and open hatred attempting to dehumanize him but at least I could understand why they don't like him. The truth is he is a centrist, and in many cases a little right-leaning. No surprise really, since more often than not, that position is shared by the majority of the country and that's the candidate we usually elect regardless of party.
I'm not too surprised that Fox News can so easily convince viewers of just about anything regardless of reality, but it's harder to figure why they feel they need to.
@S Allison
Must really suck to know, but can't admit you and your party are LOSERS. You and your party LIED to the American people when you said you were going to make Obama a one term President. YOU FAILED AT THAT. So like I said, it must really really suck to know you are a LOSER. And since you have lied before, why should we believe you now?
Billy Bob Philly - I read the article on Exxon you posted from ThinkProgress - if you read it closely it has nothing to do with any preferred treatment of big Oil like Exxon or Mobil (there isn't any - only tax credits for small producers) but is really about the tax deffered treatment for income earned overseas by all US corporations. That is an issue with our overall tax code and how it is applied to all US Corporations - General Electric is one of the biggest beneficiaries of this law.
S. Allison...Liar...Last year, the GAO posted in a report that Exxon paid about 6% in federal business taxes...and wrote off billions thanks to tax loopholes. Time to close those loopholes for good. The GAO also reported in March 2009, that Exxon posted record profits in the first fiscal quarter of the worst recession. Recessions don't happen in 3 months. Not when the former president is a Harvard MBA who had 8 years to avert it. Any more excuses you want to come up with to save a dying party of the right?
ewent unfortunately you are an example of the uninformed - you read some healine without getting into the details. Exxon enjoys the same treatment in our tax code as all corporations - they are able to defer taxes on overseas profits. The tax code needs changed - but this is not something that has "been given to big oil". Both sides have expressed a willingness to change the tax code. Please try and dig deeper into the facts.
SallyAnn - my my - why is it that liberals are always angry? It never ceases - even when you have one of your leaders in office you remain angry - is it social injustice? Is that it? Do you want more of what the rest of us work for? Is it a lack of religion? Is it an anger that consevatives seem to be generally happier people - what makes you so angry?
Social justice mean fairness, NOT "wanting more of what the rest of us work for." If you don't think there should be fairness and justice, fine, but don't let YOUR anger stop us from helping people who need it, for fear there might be a freeloader somewhere.
S. Allison...Liberals aren't "angry." We are defending our government AND our president. That's what patriotic Americans do. Your posts are the perfect example of anarchist mentalities who hate the government, hate the president but remain citizens for the money they can wring from other Americans. Most of us know that's nothing more than greed.
Jock - life is not always fair and there has to be winners and losers in a true capitalistic system. True Capitalism is what made us the richest nation on earth and gave us the financial wherewithal to protect, free and feed millions, including our own, around the world. There will and should be very successful and not so successful - that is the only way the system can work unless you want to end up like Greece. We have spent billions on poverty and where has it gotten us - the poverty rate remains laregely unchanged since the 1960's. There is a cost to everyting - nothing is free - free education is not free - someone is paying for it - free health care is not free - someone is paying for it. We need to take care of those who cannot help themselves...but we go too far - we give to those who could help themselves but have no ambition as they are on an endless cycle of being taken care of by the government - they don't seem to understand the sense of pride one gets by making it on their own, earning a living and making something out of themselves.
Unregulated capitalism is what made the Age of Robber barons, and the Jungle of Upton Sinclair. Unregulated capitalism destroys the middle class. Capitalism is a tool, not a god. Of course people who work hard should be successful, but there are times when income inequality between workers and the rich becomes unethical.
Jock...Thank you. A great post. Today's capitalism is Madoffing of the worst kind. Any and all manner of corruption is label "business." When corruption in business reaches such epic proportions, the cost to individual Americans is horrendous. It's why there are now several groups who are ready to blow the lid off corporations operating just under legal radar and sliding past the laws of the country that is making their profits for them.