E-mail updates
Follow on Twitter
Subscribe to RSSANALYSIS
In the days leading up to President Barack Obama unveiling his gun-violence proposals -- a first chance to signal his intended path forward -- no one was entirely sure what to expect.
Would the characteristically cautious Obama go incremental, putting forth measures intended to have a chance at passing Congress? Or would he go bold? The answer wound up being the latter, with the president making a sweeping call to action on guns -- the broadest proposals in a generation.
Go big or play it safe is a calculus all second-term presidents make when they’re fresh off a re-election, emboldened by the satisfaction that a majority of voters approved enough of their first term to send them back to the White House, yet experienced enough to understand the pitfalls of the legislative fights ahead.
Like many of his predecessors, Obama is exuding a newfound confidence as he begins his second term. His gun-control push, combined with a narrower approach to Afghanistan, contentious national-security nominations, and harder lines in dealing with House Republicans, foreshadows a president -- free from electoral politics -- who appears ready to shed some of the pragmatism that marked his first term. It signals that while he may remain open to deals, Obama likely will feel less inclined to spend significant time pursuing them with an entrenched opposition.
TODAY's Lester Holt reports from Washington D.C. on how the struggles and victories of President Obama's first term have set the stage for opportunities of the second.
“It makes sense, historically,” said Michael Beschloss, a presidential historian and a NBC News contributor. “There is more of a sense of command. He speaks more confidently. There’s just a difference between becoming president after being a senator for four years and being the most powerful person in the world for four years.”
Barbara Perry, a senior fellow at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center, agreed.
“He has this kind of calm, self-confidence, cool, to his enemies bordering on an arrogant demeanor, and that may be coming out now,” Perry said. “He seems bolder than coming in.”
Obama's newfound command style is typical for a second-term president, Beschloss said. He pointed to similarities between Obama’s presence now and Bill Clinton in 1997 and George W. Bush in 2005, after both were also re-elected.
“America tends to treat two-term presidents very differently,” Beschloss said. “In terms of body language, this is a different dimension.”
Presidents in their first terms are often self-conscious, he added, about whether they will earn the legitimacy granted in the annals of history to those who win re-election.
“He’s proved that he’s not a historical fluke,” he said of Obama, noting that all presidents wonder if they are just that.
A strong position
Obama is in an especially strong position for a second term, considering that he accomplished a signature legislative achievement -- heath care -- in his first term, Beschloss noted.
“He is less encumbered than many second-term presidents are,” he said.
According to Beschloss, Most presidents hold off on a push for a major legislative achievement until the fifth year, when they believe they will be free of electoral politics. Think John F. Kennedy and civil rights.
“Most presidents I can think of would have waited to do health care in a second term,” Beschloss said, adding that Obama, though, “did the opposite” likely because he realized he might not have the same structural advantages again of large Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate.
“That makes this as a second-term president a little different. He’s not girding for that kind of fight.”
Perry also points to the Supreme Court upholding the health-care law as a turning point.
“It had to show the president, ‘I really do get this system,’” she said. “I just don’t think people make enough of that victory.”
Couple that with Obama’s decided victory in November, and “that has to infuse him with confidence,” she added.
Obama will have to make sure the health care law is implemented well, but he can turn his legislative focus to guns and immigration, both areas where they expect Obama will go bold.
Another reason for the shift, Beschloss said, is Obama is no longer in crisis mode the way he was when he came into office in 2009.
“You’re probably getting much more of a view of the true person rather than someone responding to crisis after crisis,” Beschloss said.
Comparing to JFK
Beschloss and Perry see similarities to Kennedy in how Obama has evolved as president. Like Kennedy, Obama was young and a relative political neophyte when he took office. Neither was known for or seemed to enjoy the back slapping or arm twisting seen as necessary for major legislative victories in the way Lyndon Johnson or Bill Clinton did.
But both learned from mistakes.
“He does seem to have that quality, a JFK quality,” Perry said. “They aren’t natural-born politicians; they have charisma, but aloof. Personality-wise, they’re very similar. He learned from his mistakes, and I think Obama has that capacity, and that is a major skill for a president. You didn’t get to see that in a second term for Kennedy.”
Beschloss added, “You sure want a president with a sharp learning curve. Kennedy’s the best example of that.”
Perry said perhaps Obama deserves the criticism that he’s not sociable or seen as good negotiator. “He may be aloof,” she said. “His personality doesn’t lend to backslapping.”
But structure may matter more. Both Perry and Beschloss believe Obama has taken away from his first term that he doesn't have a good-faith negotiating partner in the GOP and that since it will only continue, as the GOP looks to who can become the next GOP president, Obama won't try as hard to woo Republicans.
“I think, and he has said this, he was optimistic and tried to improve the relationship,” Beschloss said, but now he “feels more chastened, and you can see it in his actions.”
Perry added, “I don’t see us moving much beyond the Mitch McConnell statement from four years ago.”
As Obama was beginning his first term, the Republican Senate leader from Kentucky famously proclaimed, “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.”
“Now the goal of the GOP will be to put a Republican back in the White House after eight years, so anything they can do to short circuit this president’s agenda, they will do,” Perry said. “And that’s not a criticism. That’s just the way the system has operated since we’ve had two parties, since the founders walked out of the signing of the Constitution.”
The question now is “will this newfound confidence get him over that hurdle?” Perry said.
It only makes sense then, they said, that Obama will try and play an “outside game” to try and leverage pressure on Congress.
Clock is ticking
But there remain warning signs for the president. The economy is still in a fragile recovery and many second terms have been marred by scandal or mismanagement (Watergate, Iran-Contra, Monica Lewinsky, Katrina and Iraq).
There are also the unknowns. Obama had to deal with several unexpected major events in his first term, from the BP oil spill to the Arab Spring to the debt-ceiling crisis.
In addition, for Americans, “familiarity breeds contempt,” Perry notes. Nearly every president since World War II, except Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, has become less popular in their second term.
“Americans grow weary of just about everyone and everything,” Perry said. “We use up politicians and celebrities, and sports figures … It’s an unusual personage who can overcome that handicap, but Obama is one of the few presidents who has the ability to do that.”
She also points out the irony that, like with Reagan and Clinton, “The farther we get away from them [presidents], the more we like them.”
The biggest hurdle, though, in Obama’s second term is there's only so much time to get it all done.
In fact, presidents who win reelection only have about six months before they become a lame duck, Beschloss said. Elected officials start thinking about their own reelections in the midterms. The parties start looking beyond the president to the upcoming open presidential election. It’s something Johnson understood well.
“LBJ said, ‘We’ve got exactly six months,’” Beschloss said of Johnson after winning election in 1965. “Most of what you and I think of as the Great Society passed in the first six months.”
And in Obama’s case, every day spent on fiscal fights with House Republicans is one less day spent on any major initiatives the president wants passed.
Leave a Comment:
Surly you jest, fister? however, I sometimes conveniently forget that you are Obama's court Jester. At 51% of the popular vote that is more like barely, than resoundingly. The Only resounding aspect included in President Obama's court is the ability to divide, and you, "little fool" are to cowardly to be honest about it.
I have viewed your f/r profile and it's odiously obvious that you are unwilling or even fearful to face objection by those who see you as the vitriolic partisan hack that you are. Pitiful really, as well as your entire list of bottom dwelling trolls, many of which are only good for a laugh of disgust.
Stubborn ignorance is what defines "stupidity". The unwillingness to learn, remember the old saying? "Stubborn as a Jackass" This is greatly absconded within the constituency of the party of asses explicitly evidenced in there constant braying & hoof stomping.
GDay.
332-206 Electoral College is RESOUNDING!
Forward>>
Looks like Obama is ready to ratchet up the burden of government on the American people.
YAY America! !!!! Forward>>
Obama 2.0. Confident, arrogant, narcissistic and as much an amateur as a newly minted MBA.
The truly scary among us are those with power that know not what they do not know.
America's 3 biggest issues are debt, imigration, and guns. Why don't we pay off our debt with guns and immigrants and solve all 3 problems with 1 move. !!!!! FORWARD>>
Today is Martin Luther King, Jr, Day! MLKjr was a life-long Democrat, verified by his autobiography, his wife and his son.
Politfact says MLK Junior was a Democrat, so does his autobiography....his son & wife say so also.
Snopes says that MLK jr being a Republican is FALSE.
MLKjr NEVER VOTED OTHER THAN DEMOCRATIC!
His father, Martin Luther King SR was Republican, not Junior
Let's try for one day to be kind to each other.
DURING THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN OF 2012. Republicans-conservatives-TP'iers formed an unholy alliance to build a mountain of lies, deceit and lunacy. Surprisingly, a lot of their BS got pretty lofty and began stinking to "high heaven".
Thank GOODNESS, Obama stood tall and brave to tear down their lying "TOWER OF BABEL"! ...As a result, most of them now find themselves speaking a different language of confusion, bewilderment and humiliation. Well, you know what they say: THE BIGGER THEY ARE, THE HARDER THEY FALL!
Well, there still may be redemption for the rest of you misguided conservatives speaking in tongues (cuz nobody really understands what the heck you are saying) with your weak and traitorous opinions about YOUR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. Send an email to www.ImsorryObamaforactinglikeafool.com. Tell him your story; tell him you're sorry.
P.S. Trust me. You will feel better in the mornings when you begin supporting your president like a REAL AMERICAN AND TRUE PATRIOT. Good day... :)
I love you. !!!! Forward>>
Kittstar, the feeling is mutal. You are indeed a "shinning star"!
Great braying & hoof stomping.
In the electoral college, and had it turned out the other way we would have claimed it as well, and you would have pointed out the popular vote at 51.yada% as neither resounding nor a mandate as many do. let me ask you this pmp aren't you glad you are not in fisters troll list?
The fact is this country's attitudes are divided. an ripe for the peeler. "dangerous"
Good Day.
First President since Eisenhower to hit 51%...still pretty resounding....something no Republican nor Democrat did in 56 years.
Your theory is obviously wrong.
Why aren't you moving? !!!! Forward>>
Hey Republicans ---- listen up. I thing I have a strategy that may work for you.
Now --- Mitt Romney may have been the best you had and that’s the problem --- he was the best of a horrible insane, ridicules batch. Seriously – Rick Santorum, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cane, Newt Gingrich --- as president ---- any of them?? I don’t think so. But that’s all in the past. So let’s look to the 2016 election. This is my advise Republicans --- if you want to have any chance of winning in 2016
Are you kidding? Mittens was perfect!
"Those who are lifting the world upward and onward are those who encourage more than criticize."
Elizabeth Harrison
1849-1927, Educator
"majority of voters approved enough of their first term to send them back to the White House",
total BS
More Arrogance, more divisiveness and more habitual lying - some may view it as confidence but those who look closely at what he is doing and check the facts see him for what he is. His current approval rating is 47% - he will do nothing to bring the country together...but instead will insist on a path of ideology trying to do as much as he can thru executive order because he is not willing to compromise and find common ground. He will speak today of lofty hope to bring us together and diminish partisanship when he himself is the most partisan. He is not a leader in the mold of a Lyndon Johnson or Bill Clinton who knew how to work accross the aisle and compromise. This is an egotistical child and more correctly a 'punk' who either does not know how to negotiate or finds it incompatible with his rigid outlook on how he, Obama, wants to change the country into his idea of a utopia. It is a scary tale of how a gifted and clever speaker can convince people he is out for their best interest when nothing could be further from the truth. The left uses the call of racism to any and all who try and bring to light the truth about this man and where he would ulitmately like to lead us.
S Allison...
His current approval rating is 56%...check your facts. It is not the President's job to compromise, he won the election reflecting the fact the people believe in him. Congress needs to work together to get the best for America.
You are being nothing but a cry-baby because the GOP got whipped in November.
Yep, he has complete confidence in his ignorance. Uncontrolled spending of money we don't have is a recipe for disaster !
"Be The Change" of a bankrupt government soon to be run by the Chinese money that owns us.
You are aware the President cannot spend, right? ONLY Congress can spend.
@Say What?
No, the chargernut69 is one of the low informed people who make up the pukebags base. He doesn't realize that only Congress controls the purse strings. Typical pukebags, most all of them are low informed.
wow... pukebags -- how original.
Guess i'm one of those pukebags that pays taxes to pay for all the excess stuff approved for by congress and yes, even YOUR president. YOUR president agreed with all the spending, so it's not just congress.
So when the money runs out we can just blame congress & not the president. He is just the one that agrees with spending money nonstop to pay for all the social programs for ENTITLED people without jobs is a good idea.
Confidence?
Arrogance is what it is he has nothing to lose and will try and cram his radical Leftist agenda down the throat of the Citizens of this country "By any means necessary".
His first Term was an abject failure nothing has changed from two months ago he hasn't brought anything new to the table.
6 trillion in new debt more than all other Presidents combined.
Unemployment over 8% for 42 months straight. Till they cooked the books.
GM on the verge of Bankruptcy again after a bailout of 50 plus billion.
Yes Chrysler is moving Jeep production to China.
De-stabilization of the Middle East through an inept foreign policy.
The loss of an Ambassador because of that inept policy.
Claiming Executive privilege covering for his AG Eric Holder in the Fast and Furious scandal then hypocritically using a tragedy to push his agenda.
Usurping the Legislative System of this Country using "Executive Orders".
Selective enforcement of immigration laws pandering for votes.
Cutting 700 billion from Medicare basically crippling the system to support Obamacare.
A predicted 525 billion in new taxes on the middle class by 2019 if Obamacare stands.
Welfare roles swelling to unprecedented numbers.
So what do the next four years hold.
Yes, food stamps use is increasing, mostly by all of those workers from Wal-Mart who cannot support their families on the wages those billionaries pay them. That is the good old "trickle down" at work, right? You get to help pay to support them because the billionaries need more money.
So quit complaining about welfare and foodstamps, your party brought that on with the "trickle down" you guys were so happy about. Then you complain when someone points out your failed policies to you. Weeeeeeeeee
It is a very sad day in America - I for one couldn't stomach watching a minute of this man being sworn in today. We have reached our lowest point in terms of a leader who believes in America's greatness, has pride in our past and understands and supports the underpinnings that have made us who we are. I cannot stand to hear another of his speeches full of hypocrisy and flowery meaningless cliches that never predict his actual behavior. I struggle with respecting the office but despising the man.
It's a happy day for America. We re-elected our leader. Looking forward to 2013 and beyond...
Obama never should have tried to reach out to the Republican-Tea Party Cartel. The first time they bit his hand, he should have kicked them square in the balls (they don't actually have any but he should have kicked them where real men people have balls). Now is the time Mr. President!...!!
More Arrogance, more divisiveness and more habitual lying - some may view it as confidence but those who look closely at what he is doing and check the facts see him for what he is. His current approval rating is 47% - he will do nothing to bring the country together...but instead will insist on a path of ideology trying to do as much as he can thru executive order because he is not willing to compromise and find common ground. He will speak today of lofty hope to bring us together and diminish partisanship when he himself is the most partisan. He is not a leader in the mold of a Lyndon Johnson or Bill Clinton who knew how to work accross the aisle and compromise. This is an egotistical child and more correctly a 'punk' who either does not know how to negotiate or finds it incompatible with his rigid outlook on how he, Obama, wants to change the country into his idea of a utopia. It is a scary tale of how a gifted and clever speaker can convince people he is out for their best interest when nothing could be further from the truth. The left uses the call of racism to any and all who try and bring to light the truth about this man and where he would ulitmately like to lead us.
More cut and paste nonsense. This is the rhetoric that divides our nation. It starts with you...
Do you remember the real corruption of G.W. Bush and Dickless Cheney and the rest of the GOP-Tea Party Cartel??? Of course you don't; it's more important to lie, fabricate, etc. etc. to continue your Right Wing political fraud, religious fraud and moral fraud....patriotism fraud...
And what is republican leader John Boehner's approval rating Allison?
Could someone please slip him some hemlock tea...the european strain...not the healthy one.
S Allison...
His current approval rating is 56%...check your facts.
It is not the President's job to compromise, he won the election reflecting the fact the people believe in him. Congress needs to work together to get the best for America.
You are being nothing but a cry-baby because the GOP got whipped in November.
(Wouldn't the Secret Service just love to read #311...you planning a conspiracy?)
Yikes 56%? your drinking the MSNBC poison. thats not only not true, but shows how uninformed people are when it comes to obama and his horrible presidency.
Read #313.2
Say hi to the secret service for me when they come to visit you.
He should take the oath on a stack of EBT cards.
Why don't you lend him some of yours?
Say what you are wrong - he's at 47% in the latest poll. The house republicans were re-elected no differently than was the president - he needs to compromise just as they do - he is not willing - he is not serious about offering any real spending cuts - we are headed to financial catastrophe - it is going to happen and we will all lose the value in our retirement plans if you have a 401K or any other investment. He does not care - it would let him start all over with our financial system when all the 'haves' have their assets wiped out.
The latest Gallop poll (Jan. 7-13) has his approval rating at 54%. Get your facts straight!
The House lost 10 seats, lost seats in the Senate and lost the White House. My 56% comes from the Washington Post polls....yours?
My 401K more than doubled since Obama has been in office, it nose-dived in 2008 thanks to Bush losing his veto stamp.
He offered Bonehead a compromise twice, Bonehead walked out.
According to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, President Barack Obama’s approval rating is
near an all-time high, and the public is on his side. Poll was posted Friday, January 18, 2013
The poll finds Obama’s approval rating at 56 percent, his highest level since November, 2009
(excluding a brief bump up to 57 percent after the president ordered the raid that killed
Osama bin Laden in 2011)… 61 percent view Obama as a strong leader — his highest level in three
years — and 53 percent say they’re optimistic about the policies he’ll pursue in his second term.
By contrast, voters intensely dislike Obama’s opponents in the House of Representatives. Congress
has just a 19 percent approval rating; 37 percent approve of House Democrats, and 24 percent
approve of House Republicans. Additionally, 67 percent believe that Republican leadership is doing
too little to give ground in negotiations, compared to 48 percent who say that is true of the president.
These numbers represent a serious rebuke to House Speaker John Boehner and some Republicans are
taking notice. Many prominent conservatives — including former House Speaker and presidential
candidate Newt Gingrich, and the Koch brothers-backed group Americans for Prosperity —
have warned that any fight could be politically disastrous for the party.
As Representative Tom Cole (R-OK) ominously told The Hill, “Majorities are elected to do things,
and if they become dysfunctional, the American people will change what the majority is.”
S Allison's glass is half empty.
Hi Billy Bob...
I believe it is bone-dry empty.
" The house republicans were re-elected no differently than was the presiden"
Not really. Democrats got more total votes than Republicans in the House.
Compromise? Work together? The Conservatives have no concept of what that means! Do anything we must, to make this a one-term President? That pretty much said it all!!! The RETHUGS have no intentions of helping their fellow Americans! No, its quite obvious to the majority of Americans, the GOP/TP have tried their very best to ruin America! The party of white racists will continue to decline in America!!!
Some call him arrogant, i call him brave, our illustrious President Obama!!! Moving foreward for all but the Rethugs!!!! May the Party of Hell NO R.I.P.!!!!
Happy B-Day M.L.K.jr.!!!!!!!
Congratulations on your second inaugural, Mr. President!!!
Congratulation on your second inaugural as V.P. Uncle Joe!!!
Four more years, and we say HELL YESSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Obama has not negotiated with anyone. people love to blame gop, but no other president in history has been this incapable of negotiating and leading. its obamas way or nothing, and everyone screaming that obama was elected so he has control need to remember the House was also elected and they have the right to stand up for what republicans believe, which is jobs and not benkrupting America.
Charlie...
Read #313.2
obama is more confident that ever that he can bankrupt america destory any freedoms we have left. what a worthless POS our president is. Will be remember for dividing america, debt, and obamacare. what a legacy...
Charlie 34...There's always North Korea. I'm sure you and the new North Korean president will get on famously. The only piece of "schiest" I see are righties who hate themselves into hatred for everything and everyone. How do you stand yourselves?
Sorry if the rest of us have moved so far past your childish attitudes of gimme, gimme, gimme...so you never have to work ...Must be hard to age out of McMommy and McDaddy's McMansion at age 35.
The Great White Angry American Male McBrat Syndrome...the only work they know is bitching. Meanwhile, the rest of us have plans for the future. Only losers like you don't.
Obama will be remembered for two things in history - as a divisive leader who was incapable or disinterested in trying to bring the country together and as the largest expander of the welfare state in our countries history. These are hardly things that will land him a proud place in history.
No, he won't! But we will remember the rhetoric as being the most divisive in history. It's up to you.
S. Allison....Don't you righties ever give it up? You cannot stop the history books from recording Barack Obama as the 44th president of the US. Must really chew up right wing asses a lot, doesn't it?
But we all know what's really behind your angst and hatefulness don't we? Bush 43...the history books will record what a miserable failure his presidency was. It's a shame that the GOP used Bush '43 as a poster boi and not a president. It's also a shame history books will show that Cheney, not Bush, was the covert president who made it appear Bush '43 was making ALL the decisions. Cowards always do that. Just in case, they have to suffer the consequences of their decisions, cowards like Cheney always need a fall guy and Bush '43 was it. Eat your hearts out. We have the President WE wanted.
DfromSpencer you are the typical liberal who likes to throw out racism to any and all who disagree with Obama's plan and methodology for our country. You, like many others, forget that the Republican majority in the house was elected no differently two months ago than was the president. Both sides need to compromise. Obama has not offered real compromise on budget and spending cuts - it has been smoke and mirrors. We are headed to financial catastrophe if this does not get under control. I don't understand how you cannot see that.
The only truthful part of your rant:
. "I don't understand"
More divisive rhetoric. Yawn. The GoP lost 10 seats in the House and 2 more seats in the Senate not to mention the White House. If they continue to fail to compromise, they will lose the House in 2014.
One can only hope.
Before the election, I posted more than once that Obama would beat Mitt. Several pukebags called me a liar, etc etc. I didn't lie, did I? If the low informed stupid base that makes up the pukebags, would have woke up, you would have seen the signs of a big defeat.
And yes, it was a huge defeat, lost the oval office, seats in both the house and congress, lost 7 of the 12 governorships, and lord knows how many local state office's. % points on the won lost don't mean crap when all of the above happened, and it did happen. Spin or deflect it any way you want, everyone knows the truth. YOU LOST.
I right now I will predict you will lose more seats in the house and senate, UNLESS you change your platform, get the tea party to shut up and become good GOP people, not the ranting luntic's they are now. If you don't change, you will LOSE again.
Ridicule me like you did before the last election if it makes you feel better. However, after the ballots are counted in 2014, I will be doing a lot of ridiculing you naysayers. And you will have it coming. And coming it will be.
S. Allison...NO...YOU are the one who posted a racist post. How about a little adult responsibility for your posts? Sorry, if we can't allow you to defame the President of the US. What country are you from? Iran?
The Republicans bankrupted our country and then crashed our economy. And after seeing their own screw-ups, Republicans said "Hey! Let's go after entitlements, etc and extract all the costs from Democrats and poor people! That way, everybody else can pay for our F-Ups! It's genius I tell's ya - it's genius"!! And so, that's how the Republican/Tea Party/Right Wing process operates to this day. But now, they have extended this their psychotic delusions to the Hurricane Sandy and Newtown disasters - their fake patriotism never sends...