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In the days leading up to President Barack Obama unveiling his gun-violence proposals -- a first chance to signal his intended path forward -- no one was entirely sure what to expect.
Would the characteristically cautious Obama go incremental, putting forth measures intended to have a chance at passing Congress? Or would he go bold? The answer wound up being the latter, with the president making a sweeping call to action on guns -- the broadest proposals in a generation.
Go big or play it safe is a calculus all second-term presidents make when they’re fresh off a re-election, emboldened by the satisfaction that a majority of voters approved enough of their first term to send them back to the White House, yet experienced enough to understand the pitfalls of the legislative fights ahead.
Like many of his predecessors, Obama is exuding a newfound confidence as he begins his second term. His gun-control push, combined with a narrower approach to Afghanistan, contentious national-security nominations, and harder lines in dealing with House Republicans, foreshadows a president -- free from electoral politics -- who appears ready to shed some of the pragmatism that marked his first term. It signals that while he may remain open to deals, Obama likely will feel less inclined to spend significant time pursuing them with an entrenched opposition.
TODAY's Lester Holt reports from Washington D.C. on how the struggles and victories of President Obama's first term have set the stage for opportunities of the second.
“It makes sense, historically,” said Michael Beschloss, a presidential historian and a NBC News contributor. “There is more of a sense of command. He speaks more confidently. There’s just a difference between becoming president after being a senator for four years and being the most powerful person in the world for four years.”
Barbara Perry, a senior fellow at the University of Virginia’s Miller Center, agreed.
“He has this kind of calm, self-confidence, cool, to his enemies bordering on an arrogant demeanor, and that may be coming out now,” Perry said. “He seems bolder than coming in.”
Obama's newfound command style is typical for a second-term president, Beschloss said. He pointed to similarities between Obama’s presence now and Bill Clinton in 1997 and George W. Bush in 2005, after both were also re-elected.
“America tends to treat two-term presidents very differently,” Beschloss said. “In terms of body language, this is a different dimension.”
Presidents in their first terms are often self-conscious, he added, about whether they will earn the legitimacy granted in the annals of history to those who win re-election.
“He’s proved that he’s not a historical fluke,” he said of Obama, noting that all presidents wonder if they are just that.
A strong position
Obama is in an especially strong position for a second term, considering that he accomplished a signature legislative achievement -- heath care -- in his first term, Beschloss noted.
“He is less encumbered than many second-term presidents are,” he said.
According to Beschloss, Most presidents hold off on a push for a major legislative achievement until the fifth year, when they believe they will be free of electoral politics. Think John F. Kennedy and civil rights.
“Most presidents I can think of would have waited to do health care in a second term,” Beschloss said, adding that Obama, though, “did the opposite” likely because he realized he might not have the same structural advantages again of large Democratic majorities in both the House and Senate.
“That makes this as a second-term president a little different. He’s not girding for that kind of fight.”
Perry also points to the Supreme Court upholding the health-care law as a turning point.
“It had to show the president, ‘I really do get this system,’” she said. “I just don’t think people make enough of that victory.”
Couple that with Obama’s decided victory in November, and “that has to infuse him with confidence,” she added.
Obama will have to make sure the health care law is implemented well, but he can turn his legislative focus to guns and immigration, both areas where they expect Obama will go bold.
Another reason for the shift, Beschloss said, is Obama is no longer in crisis mode the way he was when he came into office in 2009.
“You’re probably getting much more of a view of the true person rather than someone responding to crisis after crisis,” Beschloss said.
Comparing to JFK
Beschloss and Perry see similarities to Kennedy in how Obama has evolved as president. Like Kennedy, Obama was young and a relative political neophyte when he took office. Neither was known for or seemed to enjoy the back slapping or arm twisting seen as necessary for major legislative victories in the way Lyndon Johnson or Bill Clinton did.
But both learned from mistakes.
“He does seem to have that quality, a JFK quality,” Perry said. “They aren’t natural-born politicians; they have charisma, but aloof. Personality-wise, they’re very similar. He learned from his mistakes, and I think Obama has that capacity, and that is a major skill for a president. You didn’t get to see that in a second term for Kennedy.”
Beschloss added, “You sure want a president with a sharp learning curve. Kennedy’s the best example of that.”
Perry said perhaps Obama deserves the criticism that he’s not sociable or seen as good negotiator. “He may be aloof,” she said. “His personality doesn’t lend to backslapping.”
But structure may matter more. Both Perry and Beschloss believe Obama has taken away from his first term that he doesn't have a good-faith negotiating partner in the GOP and that since it will only continue, as the GOP looks to who can become the next GOP president, Obama won't try as hard to woo Republicans.
“I think, and he has said this, he was optimistic and tried to improve the relationship,” Beschloss said, but now he “feels more chastened, and you can see it in his actions.”
Perry added, “I don’t see us moving much beyond the Mitch McConnell statement from four years ago.”
As Obama was beginning his first term, the Republican Senate leader from Kentucky famously proclaimed, “The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president.”
“Now the goal of the GOP will be to put a Republican back in the White House after eight years, so anything they can do to short circuit this president’s agenda, they will do,” Perry said. “And that’s not a criticism. That’s just the way the system has operated since we’ve had two parties, since the founders walked out of the signing of the Constitution.”
The question now is “will this newfound confidence get him over that hurdle?” Perry said.
It only makes sense then, they said, that Obama will try and play an “outside game” to try and leverage pressure on Congress.
Clock is ticking
But there remain warning signs for the president. The economy is still in a fragile recovery and many second terms have been marred by scandal or mismanagement (Watergate, Iran-Contra, Monica Lewinsky, Katrina and Iraq).
There are also the unknowns. Obama had to deal with several unexpected major events in his first term, from the BP oil spill to the Arab Spring to the debt-ceiling crisis.
In addition, for Americans, “familiarity breeds contempt,” Perry notes. Nearly every president since World War II, except Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, has become less popular in their second term.
“Americans grow weary of just about everyone and everything,” Perry said. “We use up politicians and celebrities, and sports figures … It’s an unusual personage who can overcome that handicap, but Obama is one of the few presidents who has the ability to do that.”
She also points out the irony that, like with Reagan and Clinton, “The farther we get away from them [presidents], the more we like them.”
The biggest hurdle, though, in Obama’s second term is there's only so much time to get it all done.
In fact, presidents who win reelection only have about six months before they become a lame duck, Beschloss said. Elected officials start thinking about their own reelections in the midterms. The parties start looking beyond the president to the upcoming open presidential election. It’s something Johnson understood well.
“LBJ said, ‘We’ve got exactly six months,’” Beschloss said of Johnson after winning election in 1965. “Most of what you and I think of as the Great Society passed in the first six months.”
And in Obama’s case, every day spent on fiscal fights with House Republicans is one less day spent on any major initiatives the president wants passed.
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If Fast and Furious was a Republican failure, why is it that Obuma and Holder don't want any information released. Could be it mentions them in the text of it somewhere. I hope they don't give in on the debt, hold him accountable, he is gonna blame someone esle anyway.
If you critique Obama you are a racist. Notwithstanding that 90% of negros voted for Obama. Hummmm And for you keeping records, Barack is half white, half black. Have you seen his mother and his father? Wow no wonder.
Compare that the first Chinese Americans were slaves and the first Japanese Americans were slaves. Yes slaves. Notice any difference in how each has addapted into the American culture.
Liberals need to get over their self imposed WHITE GUILT. Get over it please and go hug a tree.
99% of niiiigggerrrrooo's , hey if you don't believe me that obama your welfare momma is a loser just ask his mother or people who had to room with him when he was cheating on his college exams
Obama should hire 1 million African American federal officers. Send them to all to the southern states. Im sure they can find something on you.
more justice pooped its pants
now you are sounding like obama your welfare momma, and racist also, sicking african americans on me, the educated ones like me moron, and the uneducated ones are out stealing hub caps with you
You have friends? Prove it!
You know, they have groups for shut-ins. lol
obama your welfare momma is to the American people what the Black Plague was to early Europeans, he is like Montazuma's revenge to the Mexican's, he is like Flea's to a mangey dog, he is like a yeast infection to a Vagina, in a nut shell he is an arseholeloser
More confident, oh yes this bastard is more confident. He is more confident, because he Knows that he can, and will get away with what ever he want now. There is NO ONE up there that will stop him. The democrats, the republicans, no one. So start seeing your pay check shrivel up and he sends his goons to collect from you........ I thank those of you that re-elected the bastard, for because of you WE ALL are paying for it. Yes even you asses.
Obama need to expand the power of the Federal Government over States. And work to unify laws across the country. Along with tax rates and whatnot.
riiiiigghht - because everything runs better when you get the Federal government involved
MoreJustice I pooped myself
sounds to me like your mom needs to expand her power over your curfew and put you to bed after you crap and piss so you don't soil the bed and yourself like you did last night, some idiots like you need more supervision, and because of that you want everyone to have more supervision but your are the one who soiled yourself
Everything runs better when you have consistent laws and rules. And tax rates. Its in no ones interest to have companies playing states off against eachother for the cheapest deal. Thats a big part of the reason we are in debt, because were not bringing in enough revenue. And its not like these companies cant afford it. Many have profits in the billions.
Yomama, keep trolling lol .. Ill get my revenge when we keep winning elections and you blow a tube when your fine arrives. Or your tax rate goes up. I love it when they raise taxes on people like you. :D
Make sure you file early, theres a fine for that too.
you are truely clueless - one of our many problems today is a bloated, FAR too big Federal government. Top heavy , ineffecient, unnessessary. With the Fed. - you usually have 5 doing the job of one
People need jobs. Dont like it, try Somalia.. See how thats working out for them.
You will need your gun there.
I want a government in control. The government is us, "the people". Its not a foreign occupying force. You just dont like it, because you are becoming a minority (finally).
You want things your way? Get a majority, get elected. Or leave to some rat hole like Somalia.
Now you know how other Minorities have felt. Especially when their rights are actually being trampled.
blah blah blah - what the F%CK does somolia have to do with our bloated , far too big government?
Somalia has no government. Its perfect for you.
does it really mater if he is confident or not, the country will get the shaft either way!!!!
in the next four years, obama will give away another $20 billion to another group of energy companies they will fail, make marijuana legal on the federal level, open the borders without limitations,cut the military to just 100 personnel, sign an agreement with china for partial takeover for our debts......i could go on and on and on , but i think you get the picture.
We have just begun sticking it to you. lol
Did you really think there would be no backsplash? Bwhahahahahahahahahahaha
more justice just pooped itself
we, as in we the welfare state or we the idiots or you and the mouse in your pocket that you won't even feed as you are to stingty with the free crap your welfare momma obama gives you. is that a picture of a car you aspire to own or steal, either way at least you have a goal and that is saying a lot for a piece of crap like you
I suspect you are the welfare collector. Since you seem obsessed with it. How about a trailer?, do you live in a single or double wide?
You seem far too angry to be someone sucessful. Did someone steal your sweetroll?
more justice pooped itself
you suspect, that is mighty big words for a welfare cheat, what if I turn you in are you suppose to have a free computer along with your trailer and phone and ebt card, or are you so important that you have direct line to obama your welfare momma, or are you on the end of his wee pee pee as I type this, well when your done take his wee pee pee out of your mouth and I will understand you better
keep trolling lol,
You cant upset me. But I can tell you are popping blood vessels in your forehead. Thats not healthy.. Really.
I recommend paying your taxes. That always relaxes me.
If a new clown wants an origional face other than bozo the clown they should use obama your welfare momma's face as a mold as if I ever saw a great clown this would be it, kind of like the arse-end of a baboon, did not mean to offend any baboons but what the hell obama is a clown.
Whatever he is, he owns you.
You wouldnt be so angry if he didnt. lmao.
Pay your tax on time, or he gonna getcha hahaha
more justice just pooped itself
owns, wow those are racist words, that is not nice coming from a liberal that lives by the phrase you are a racist
Its not racist. Im not black, im white.
And Obama owns everybody. Hes "Commander in Chief". And he has the power to put you in Gitmo anytime he wants. Atleast you get free baths there. hehehe
you obama your welfare momma wee pee pee smokers bore me, I have to get some sleep, unlike you I still work for a living but give it time I might be out of work just like you and that I can thank obama your welfare momma for, then you can fill me in on how the ebt card and food stamp programs work, you should be proud of yourself you know how to bilk the government and you can teach others your trade.
No bites huh.. keep trolling, you will get a bite one day. Just not here. hahaha
Maybe the title of this MSN story should be "Obama's Shows Arrogance at the Beginning of His Second Term"?
After what Lisa Murkowski said at our local chamber meeting last week...This is what it seems like. He knows that he is in the driver's seat and playing the role!
And yes, my last paycheck was smaller this last pay period (I am by no means wealthy, or even comfortable financially)...Thank You Obama!
Blame Bush Blame Bush. Blame Bush for the Vietnam war also.
Wholly inconsequential to me what this person feels.
He is deconstructing the United States constitution.
Why should I care?
He imprisons political opponents in county jails where no one will ever know and the local small press conceals and suppresses the stories. A very serious criminal offense by the Democratic party, and especially this man that acts in tyranny.
But a few of us are exposing his crimes to the international authorities because there is no recourse for Americans caught in this type of terror by Barack Obama.
And if you all do not know that by now, you've already lost the nation.
My advice to him is arrest and incarcerate thyself.
Quite frankly, with what he's put my family through over the last four years, I wouldn't care if he was assassinated.
I never believed I would ever say anything like that, but I cannot support him to continue to harm other Americans like he has my family as a directive.
Feel free to share. I've made myself very clear.
He's killing people in the background that few are hearing about because the press is suppressing it. And the FBI already knows.
It's up to the American people.
But, from the lack of action by you - I am disenchanted by my fellow civilians as well. You are extremely disappointing, cowardice, and lack integrity.
You simply do not care what happens to the United States so long as you have money in your bank accounts and that isn't enough for me to live by as a principle.
I need countrymen that believe in nationality and what our constitution stands for. If it is not good enough for you - then leave instead of reinventing something that was not broken in the first place.
We had a brilliant man that drafted our first government documents. Why mess with his genius? Who are you to do that?
Leave.
There is plenty of real estate in other places, and let America be.
Go big or play it safe? It’s a calculus all second-term presidents make when they’re fresh off a re-election, emboldened by the satisfaction that a majority of voters approved enough of their first term to send them back to the White House, yet experienced enough to understand the pitfalls of the legislative fights ahead.
Wow 4 years it all it takes to be an experienced expert.
@Pigotry
Obama is in more wars than Bush, and he is killing children with drone attacks, just like Bush. He is hardly liked by the world.
Of course Obama is more confident. He is turning America into a third world country, and he's proud of it. You have nearly 25% of Americans on food stamps, about 50% of Americans are receiving some sort of assistance from the government, and only 1% of Americans are truly living the so-called "american dream." The national debt continues to grow out of control, which will lead to more credit downgrades. Just wait until countries stop giving money to America. Then the government will come after your 401K, social security, medicare, even take money from your bank account. And, yes, the government knows just how much you have in the bank. All heil President Obama, also known as the "food stamp" president.
WOW, WOW, WOW!!!!! Good Morning all - it's been about a week since I've been able to join this august group and I must say Obama's strategic plan is working! In just the few short weeks since his reelection - see Liberals I acknowledge it - don't like it, but admit his victory, the Republicans' defeat, the progressive victory over the conservative, the takers' victory over the makers..........however you would like me to verbalize it, I admit it, acknowledge it etc, etc, etc - Anyway, his strategic plan of divisiveness is working even better than i think he could have imagined. Have any of you read the posts the past 2 months? The vitriol, anger, frustration, denigration, attacks, assaults, name calling, etc, etc, etc have gotten worse by the week..............Historically, I think, most great nations crumble from the inside..............Obama's policies and his strategic plan to minimize the United States of America continues to work and will continue throughout his second term. Bottom Line - all of us need to be able to voice opinions - pro and con - on everything Obama does or does not do - without all the negative crap that seems to accompany differing opinions on this site - the biggest of which is the position that anyone who disagrees with Obama is a racist............In my opinion, anyone who actually believes that is just stupid. So, let's go for it - Republicans, Democrats, Libertarians, and all the rest, but let's go for it with some modicum of intelligence, without the baiting, name calling, etc, etc, etc..................And I will not waste a second of my life watching Obama's inauguration. An inauguration is a celebration and I cannot celebrate this man's policies of national mediocrity.
Most great nations indeed do self destruct. Opinions will do nothing however. America is going to fall. All past empires fell, and so will America. All who gain power eventually lose it.
I agree............and this administration is making it happen faster than I think it could/would/should.........
You must be new to online. You think people being divided is new and it's Obama's fault? HA you're so nieve.
Here is the simple truth: It took 43 presidents to build up a $10 trillion debt. 229 years of American presidents. In just 4 years, one president has caused a $6 trillion increase in the debt. Obama is on pace to be responsible for the biggest debt increase in the history of the US. He has the potential to double the debt.
229 years, 43 presidents...10 trillion in debt
4 years, 1 president...6.4 trillion in debt.
Enough said!
Narcissism being spun as confidence!!!
The real question is will republicans continue to stand up for America???
Let's hope so...........or we vote them out and bring in others who will. Boehner/Reid is a perfect example of why we need term limits.
Boehners so ugly I'm sick of seeing his face on my computer.
Anyone out there have some REAL statistics about Debt vs GDP? Is this ratio worse now than after WWII? What is an acceptable ratio? What has been the average since 1945? Maybe the current ratio isn't so bad; it's just the numbers that are so large. Just trying to get a handle on this..........
God Bless Barack Obama. 4 years taking it on the chin from a pack of morons. Older and wiser? you betcha.
But if you listen to nearly every speech a beautiful practical pragmatic harmonious tone. Direct and simple. Continuity of message in intent. A recognition of what is important and the desire to pursue genuine solutions.
He was considered a naive babe in the woods easy pickins for the GOP consultant class. Only to hand them their heads on a platter come election time. Guess the people aren;t that stupid after all.
What a waste the GOP scorched earth approach born from the Gingrich days crashing and burning like a spectacular experimental jet fighter gone bad. And the intellectuals standing around scratching their heads tying to figure out what went wrong.
The GOP lately has a gift for latching on the the wrong side of an argument then thinking if I make this a life or death proposition, I will win the argument by attrition because at some point the other side will tire and walk away. And that failed in a way that would remain in their psyche for some time to come.
So to Pres Obama I say, bless you and as the force is strong with you, may it be with you, always.
JP - I'm not sure your statement is correct...........Republicans, in my opinion, have not latched on to the wrong side of recent arguments, rather have approached the discussions with the wrong tactics. Sad that we have such discussions about the R vs D when we should be discussing what's good for AMERICA instead of about half of the constituents.
jp you are impressed very simply, hopefully as you get older, you will become wiser???
It would be most helpful if Obama and Democrats were realistic about his power.
He got elected,the House remained in Republican hands,and those Republicans remain in charge of the Ways and Means Committee.
FDR helped lead its party toward complete dominance in the Federal Government,and even FDR did not control the Supreme Court,or the Southern Democrats in the Senate.
Expectations for the President's leadership remain outlandish.
Our Federal System never said one person could shake the economy and bring forth fruit.The weather,the global economy,the lack of financial controls all undermine the powers of the President.
Obama may claim he can part the Red Sea,but every president since Truman knows they cannot,and citizens should stop asking they do.
Today I am very ashamed of this nation , Clinton , Bush no 2 , I thought this is as low as we could go remember Clinton NAFTA job destruction , fair housing act destroyed our economy , Bushs open borders mass illegal immigration , now we have a truly world famous liar , a coward in chief , and a puppet president there is no bottom we can still go a long way down and Obama is the man to take us there.
On this historic day - Should the school children of America - begin writing letters to President Obama - to beg him to focus on and help get the economy going again - and help their parents get much needed jobs - for their families?
Would he read them at a press conference?
More important - would he do anything about it - going into his 5th year/second term?
The focus on children - when convenient - shows Obama's true hypocrisy - clearly
Concerned about guns and kids - while burying their very future in bizzaro spending debt
All along - ignoring jobs and the economy - what was to be your #1 priority - pathetic and sad Mr. President
hey marcus !!!! Forward>>
And - Walk the walk - or just more talk?
More smoke and mirrors - bad to little to no results
And the continued pile up of historic levels of debt - The Obama's legacy
Nope just !!!! Forward>>
Please spare me the idea that Obama is anything like John Kennedy, they have nothing in common. Yesterday it was reported that Obama is like the former President Reagan, come on????Really. Those names should never be in the same newspaper even, absolutely no likeness. For one Reagan knew the Constitution and respected it as well as the AMerican Flag. Pay attention to the important details!