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Subscribe to RSSSusan Davis: “Unproductive and unpopular are two words most often used to describe the previous Congress, but a new description can be used for the new session: inexperienced. A confluence of factors — from a trio of wave elections, redistricting, divisive primaries to even death — kick off a 113th Congress populated by junior lawmakers in both chambers that challenges the conventional wisdom that Washington politics is dominated by entrenched incumbents. Nearly two in five lawmakers in the U.S. House, 39%, have served for less than three years, according to data compiled by the non-partisan Cook Political Report. It's the least experienced House since at least 1995, when an election wave swept the Republicans into power.”
Josh Green looks at the history of debt-ceiling vote. In short, like with many modern political tactician gimmicks, blame it on Newt Gingrich. “In 1979 the problem was solved by a young Democratic congressman from Missouri, Richard Gephardt, who had the thankless task of rounding up votes to raise the ceiling. … Gephardt, who would later become House Democratic leader and twice run for president, devised a simple fix that met the absurd requirement of a two-step process. With help from the House parliamentarian, he established the Gephardt Rule, which decreed that when Congress adopted a budget resolution (the first step) it was automatically ‘deemed to have passed’ a commensurate increase in the debt limit (the second step). Presto. Problem solved. The Gephardt Rule held for a decade and a half, during which there were no fights over raising the debt ceiling. But when Republicans took control of the House in 1995, they killed it.”
More: “Gingrich thought the second vote was a good pressure tactic to limit spending. Yet the threat of debt default didn’t work because nobody took it seriously. What’s different now is that many Republicans seem willing to follow through. Even Gingrich is worried. ‘You can’t risk default,’ he says. ‘I don’t think this is a good place to force the issue.’ Still, he doesn’t regret doing away with the Gephardt Rule. ‘I would favor raising the debt ceiling for only three months at a time as a reminder to Congress as it goes through the appropriations process that you want to minimize the future debt,’ he says.”
National Journal: “Republicans appear to be willing to avoid a showdown over the debt limit and instead use the sequester as their main negotiating lever in upcoming fiscal fights with the White House and Senate Democrats.”
National Journal calls the Republican retreat “a weekend of self help.” It writes: “They are here for three days of events with uplifting titles such as ‘What Happened and Where Are We Now,’ ‘Turning it Around,’ ‘Using Adversity to Our Advantage by Working Together,’ and ‘Sailing Above Rough Seas.’”
This headline symbolizes what’s wrong with the GOP - they had to be told THIS at their retreat: Politico: “GOP pollster: Stop talking about rape.”
Yet some can’t stop being incendiary: PoliticalWire: “Idaho Rep. Ron Mendive (R) ‘drew audible gasps’ when he asked representatives from the American Civil Liberties Union if their pro-abortion rights stance also means that they support prostitution, the AP reports. Mendive said that since the ACLU supports a woman's right to choose abortion, shouldn't the organization also support prostitution, arguing that prostitution also is ‘a woman's choice.’”
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House elections every two years can produce undesirable results, but can also bring necessary change too.
Often people are just happy to kick the bums out, but it's up to those elected to seize the moment to do the right thing with hard work and competence.
What does the future hold?
What causes Inflation? Here's a brief 'Primer'.
In general monetary theory, the relationship between money supply and inflation commonly is expressed as:
M x V = P x Q
In the preceding equation, M is the money supply, V is the velocity of money, as measured by the number of times the money supply turns over in a year, P is the general level of prices, and Q is the quantity of goods and services available.
Applying this simple formula, it's easy to see that a significant change in any of these 'variables' will have a direct impact on Prices, as reflected in the inflation rate.
What's happening right now is that the Money Supply (M1) has been increasing dramatically over the last few years ($1.4 Trillion in 2008 vs $2.5 Trillion now) because the Federal Reserve has been 'creating' more money to fund the current government Deficits. Ultimately, this will be highly inflationary, and if/when the Federal Reserve has to reverse course to counter inflation, it will lead to high interest rates and an economic contraction. Generally, the greater the reduction in the money supply, the greater the contraction.
The main reason that we have not experienced an inflationary spiral to date is the recession, which has resulted in a slowing in the Velocity (V) of money, but when inflation begins and people start 'getting rid of' Dollars that are declining in value by buying things, Prices (P) will quickly rise even faster, thus forcing the Federal Reserve to intervene. A classic example of this process in action occurred in the early 1980s, when Paul Volker (former head of the Federal Reserve) forced consumer interest rates up to about 18% per year to combat the 14% inflation rate in late 1980. The result was a sharp recession.
For an interesting 'read' on the relationship between M1 and inflation, I would recommend the following link;
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation/Money_Supply_and_Inflation.asp
PS - the 'silly' idea of simply 'minting' a few 'Platinum $1 Trillion coins' to pay off part of the Debt would lead to an instant doubling of the money supply, which in turn would virtually double the price of things very quickly - that's why it was rejected by Geithner.
Here is the biggest problem facing the United States today;
The National Debt is projected by Obama to be $20.392 Trillion in 2016, if Obama gets all of his tax increases he's asked for (Source - Obama's 2013 Budget).
Interest Rates over the last 30 years before Obama averaged 4.92% per year.
If history is a guide, we can expect the Interest alone on the National Debt to increase to slightly over $1 Trillion per year in 2016, an increase of over $800 Billion per year above the average of $199 Billion per year paid under Bush. That's an increase of more than $8 TRILLION over 10 years - just for Interest expense. The current arguing over a few hundred $Billion in taxes and spending cuts are miniscule compared with this problem.
And Interest expense will increase from 10.02% of Federal receipts in 2008 to 27.6% of Federal receipts in 2016. That dramatic increase in tax revenues that will have to be dedicated to Interest expense will crowd out huge amounts of spending that can be used for 'entitlements' and running the government. That dramatic increase in money spent for Interest will require huge tax increases, which will also cause a huge drop in consumer spending, which will stagnate the economy.
No matter what happens over the next 4 years, EVERYONE will face huge tax increases – just to pay the Interest expense.
YEAH. ok Roy. just blame 1 PERSON for EVERYTHING THAT is gone wrong. I am sick of the Obama bashing. get over it. he was elected.
... yeah...it's Newtered Grinch who destroyed civility in Congress...and ultimately it's Gingrich who destroyed Congress.
They just can't stop yapping about abortion and rape (Ron Mendive is just one on a long list of trolls). In the area once served by Dr. George Tiller (murdered by the 'pro-life' Scott Roeder) Rachel Maddow reports that a Doctor is soon to begin flying in and out to provide medical services...sounds more like Pakistan than Kansas. No wonder the Republican brand is under deep water...they won't even try to get something done on gun control in the wake of the senseless tragedy of children being riddled with bullets. Hope Harry Reid can get something moving in the Senate.
Idiotic statement, but maybe not! Prostitution has been around since the dawn of the ages. However, since that 'dawn', those who receive the services of the prostitutes (Johns), go away unscathed while the prostitutes are villified and/or jailed.
A la David Vitter.....no harm, no foul!
And their johns contain republicans, righty fascist. Out on the wife for a stroll on the wild side. Unless of course they are at the airport in Minneapolis.
I guess least experienced house is the nice way of saying the dumbest house ever.
As far as the house goes its like a retarded child
I doubt that there will be much of a change in the quality and quantity of work done in the 113th Congress than was done in the 112th Congress. The key players are still in place. The key players are some of the ones who hold things up, are the power brokers, and the do nothings. Few of the newbes are Teabaggers but there are still enough teabaggers left to make this Congress about the same as the last but the newbes might get just a tad more done but we'll have to see.
time for term reform. Here is the latest headline I would like to see. "Congress to work 40 hours a week like everyone else. If the job isn't done, Congress doesn't get to go home/take a vacation. Congressmen limited to a 1 year term. If we like the job they are doing, they can stay for another year. Congressmen to take a pay cut to work this job. No more "perks."
I like your direction here Catherine, career politicans are the worst thing in the history of this country. They have obligations to campaign contributors, and as long as lobbyists are allowed on government property, Super PACs have unlimited contributions, and former corporate executives are "assigned" to regulatory positions within their former markets...nothing is going to change.
PS I disagreed with your view of ROYs post above, I didnt see it as placing it all on Obama, he was simply stating that increasing revenues through tax increases that the results are in terms of billions of $ over a DECADE is a non starter when there is an ANNUAL deficit of over $1,000,000,000,000 (trillion). Also try to look through a more non partisan lens when you defend a man whos first term's motto was "Its Bush's fault." Its time to get over the blame game and address issues. The Conservatives bought 2 wars without raising taxes; not sustainable. The Liberals have been pushing for $1,000,000,000,000 deficits and have not passed a budget in 4 years; not sustainable.
I think a "Least experienced House" isn't necessarily a bad thing. It means they're free from all of Washington's beauracratic BS traditions and party warfare. We do need a top down cleansing, but if enough "less experienced" politicians of both parties come in and have their constituents' best interest in mind (isn't that whole idea?), a shift will have to happen at the top. Remember, we have a 9% approval rating for Congress, but over 85% of the incumbents were voted back into office...notice a trend?