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Subscribe to RSSCharlie Cook: “Although winning big among white voters and carrying the independent vote is necessary for GOP victories nationally, it’s no longer sufficient to win. … This is simply math. As long as Republicans drive minority voters away, they will not be a nationally competitive party. Sure, congressional district boundaries, as currently drawn, will most likely keep the GOP in the House majority for the duration of this decade and until the 2022 election, the first after the next census. But Republicans had better pray that the 2020 gubernatorial and state legislative elections go their way and they can get another favorable remapping; otherwise, their situation in the House could change markedly as well.”
Mark Sanford says he talked to his ex-wife first before running. "I sat down with her on the porch and said, 'If you have any thoughts about running for this, then I'm out, because I can't think of anything more disastrous than for a husband and wife to run against each other.' I also told my boys that I wouldn't run if they didn't want me to run." (H/T: Political Wire).
Chris Christie (R-NJ) on the NRA ad: “I think any of us who are public figures, you see that kind of ad and you cringe. … I’m a father who is a public figure, who has four children and my children had no choice realistically in what I decided to do with my career and what effect that has had on their lives. Don’t be dragging people’s children into this. It’s wrong and I think it demeans them and it makes them less of a valid trusted source of information on the real issues that confront this debate.”
Andrew Cuomo gets a 71% favorability rating and a 60% job approval rating.
Do you want your kid’s teacher to keep a gun in her desk? Rand Paul does. "If my kids were at that school, I would have preferred that the teacher had concealed-carry and had a gun in her desk. Is it perfect? No. Would they always get the killer? No. Would an accident sometimes happen in a melee? Maybe. But nobody (at the Connecticut school) had any defense, and he just kept shooting until he was tired and he decided to shoot himself."
Politico: “As President Barack Obama approaches his second inaugural on Monday, he presides over a party that has largely papered over its divisions for the past four years thanks to the president’s commanding popularity.
But almost as soon as the echo of Obama’s inaugural address fades and he becomes a lame duck, Democrats are going to have to face a central and unresolved question about their political identity: Will they become a center-left, Democratic Leadership Council-by-a-different-name party or return to a populist, left-leaning approach that mirrors their electoral coalition?”
“A handful of surviving members of the 35th president’s White House staff came together Wednesday to relive those heady times that have long since passed for American myth. They were invited for a private tour of the exhibit, ‘To The Brink: JFK and the Cuban Missile Crisis,’ on display at the National Archives,” The Boston Globe writes. “Unlike the tourists straining to get a good look at the displays, or leaning in to hear the White House recordings from those 13 dangerous days, theirs were expressions of recognition. They had been there. They played a part in the 1,000 days of Kennedy’s presidency that has come to be
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Chris Christie can be himself, and be true to himself, or he can get nominated by the jerkwads in the Republican party. I don't think he can do both.
The good news is that Republicans realize the truth about the demographics. The bad news is that they've concluded there's no need to change their policies, only to market them better.
yeah...the same old wine in the same old bottle for the GOP -
no change of heart among GOP leaders while rank and file Republicans are agonizing over the wrong direction some of the key GOP leaders have led the party to.
From the article above:
So far, the Governor is saying all the right things to position himself for the 2016 nomination.
I'll check in from time to time to see if he can fight off the extreme teapartypoopers as he drifts towards the center.
Anyone who has seen the tv add made by the NRA, should understand how grotesquely over-the-top the NRA has gone and how they have damaged their cause beyond repair.
Salud
From the article...
"As long as Republicans drive minority voters away, they will not be a nationally competitive party."
There is not one direct piece of evidence that proves that the republican party is driving anyone away. This is the result of the media's "branding"of the republican party... The media's branding is what is driving minorities away from the republicans not the party itself or what it stands for!!
Maxx,
That is from Charlie Cook, a Republican strategist.
Dennis, I'm not sure Charlie Cook is Republican. I'm not aware of any affiliation for Charlie. 'course, that might be lost in deceased brain cells.
Gee, Maxx, there's that bad, bad, media again! The nerve of them to do their job and report what Republicans are actually saying and doing! How biased can you get (insert tongue so firmly in cheek that it looks like I'm workin' a chaw)!!!
Maxx keep burying your head and saying it's the media's fault and not what the republicans stand for, and you will continue to lose elections.
Auntie,
Thanks! You may be correct.
I believe he worked for Dems until the late 90’s when he went more independent and has been employed more by Republicans than Dems.
His main thing is his own company which offers his services to anyone he can work out a contract with.
That bit about a "liberal" media is a joke. The last time we had a "liberal" media was WWII. You can say, "Fox News is conservative, but that's the only one." Rupert Moloch owns Fox News, but he also owns the Wall Street Journal. My city has one newspaper, and it's as conservative as they come. There was a liberal one too, but it went out of business about 20 years ago. There's a old saying, "A picture is worth a thousand words." There's a famous picture that shows what the media is. It's the one with Truman holding up the Chicago Tribune with the headline "Dewey Defeats Truman!". That is the media's bias.
Cook is right. The Tea-party Congress will be with us at least until 2022for all the reasons he has outlined. He did miss one, however. By 2022 the Boomers will cease to be a major political force--mostly because they will be dying off or really too old to care. This might give state senate and gubernatorial races to the Democrats before the next census. Until then, expect more gridlock.
That's only true if we assume people to be monolithic, unchangeable blocs. Yes, the hardcore believers in the "Reagan Revolution" will fight to the end for the Conservative Movement. There's also a significant group of "persuadables", however. These are the folks who can be convinced a hand up is not a hand out, education and infrastructure are critical to the health of American society, and we work TOGETHER, each making our own contribution to the greatness of this nation. Those are the folks who can make a difference between now and 2022.
Senator DeMint before resigning to join the heritage foundation said he'd rather the Senate have 30 true believers of the conservative agenda then to have 60 who merely talked the talk. When you have people leading the party that would rather lead them into obscurity then to adjust to the will of the mainstream of the party you know they're in trouble. As the article states their best hope to hold onto the house is to continue to have the ability to gerrymander districts to hold onto power. Maybe it's time republicans elect leaders that actually represent their views rather than a divisive, hateful agenda.
I'd add that it's a dangerous thing when one of our political parties has decided they don't NEED to represent the view of the majority, only to impose that view from a minority position.
The Republican State Leadership Committee released a report boasting that the only reason the GOP controls the House of Representatives is because they gerrymandered congressional districts in blue states.
http://rslc.com/_blog/News/post/REDMAP_2012_Summary_Report
Thanks for the late night reading Denis ... hope there is a centerfold, I'm big on naked maps.
Gerrymandering has less power because of the mobility of the population. When people move into and out of districts, it can easily change any party's control.
As long as republicans do what they did in Michigan in the lame duck session they will lose the most important vote of all, the worker. There are a lot more workers then there are owners and managers. Its simple, you can fool some of the people some of the time but when you bust unions you can take that off of the table.
I can't figure out their appeal to southern workers. I guess as long as they've got their guns and enough money left over after the double wide payment to pick up some Natural Light, everything's cool.
It's easy to keep southern workers scared, uninformed and uneducated. In other words they buy into the republican lies.
Careful FR, you confuse republicans when you use the word math.
The GOP is not on Math's side. Or Science's. Or History's. Or Literature's. Or any of the Arts'. Or, most dangerously, Civics'.
The republican agenda is to demonize the 47%, minorities and the poor. Referring to retiree's as handouters for collecting social security, the unemployed for getting unemployment and the poor for getting food stamps. Then they claim Obama was dividing the country because he wanted to raise taxes on the rich by 4.5%. This only makes sense to them. Maybe if they'd recognize the worth of 100% of Americans instead of focusing on hate from the haves against the havenots they'd be relevant again. After all the unemployed will eventually get jobs and many poor will someday pay income taxes.
Well, math may not be on their side, but it certainly no deterrent. If you don't first succeed, just change the rules until you can win anyway.
Wake up folks - there's a major attempt at a power grab under way in many state legislatures to change the electoral college so that even if a candidate wins the popular vote in a state (perhaps by hundreds of thousands), they'd still win the presidency.
Redistricting is no longer just for the House (which btw, got way more votes for Democrats, but Republicans are in control), it's now for the presidency if the RNC gets it's way.
Who needs math or demographics if you can rig elections?
The Republicans have a complete different set of rules on everything, Math, politics,truth , fairness etc. i think Republicans are descendents of Aliens from Alpha-Centauri.
I would like for those of you who think that we in the South are so ignorant, please lay your credentials on the table. On edweek.com, of the Southern states (or the ones we claim), we ranked #4 (VA), #5 (AR), #7 (GA), #12 (TX), #17 (NC), #23 (LA), #24 (SC), #32 (AL), #45 (MS). Only two of these lie below the median grade in the US. Considering we hold three of the top ten states when we are slightly less than 20% of the nation, I would say that means we aren't quite as ignorant as you think we are. I guess that shows just how ignorant YOU are!!!
Your arguments are far more meaningful when you provide facts rather than name-calling. Wasn't that what President Obama called for - meaningful discussion. Then stop the name-calling or you will never see those of us from the South feeling compelled to listen to you.
Carla: Interesting statistics but not sure what your point is. Want statistics? Most states with the highest numbers of college graduates are blue states and the 10 with the lowest are all red. I think that shows more than your jumping around statistics.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/09/23/states-with-the-highest-p_1_n_735588.html#s143648&title=Massachusetts_
The republicans are where the democrats were prior to Bill Clinton. They are fractured and divided. They know what they want but have no practical plan to convince the public. Their primary and election campains were terrible and to make matters worse, they were convinced they were going to win. We are like every other country. Conservatives are people who are basically in power and want to remain in power and fight anything that would change that. Liberals want change because they think they benefit from it. That is not necessarily a benefit in money. Our biggest problem is that real wages have not gone up in 30 years and there is far too much economic inequallity. That is what causes revolutions. It does not matter who is right or wrong. People will not watch their children starve while others live in Mansions. Neither side has the slightest idea what to do about it. Republicans believe poor people are lazy and that is their answer. Democrats believe the rich are selfish and that is the problem. Any discussion of this is class warfare (primarily because no one in this country has ever seen class warfare). It is true there are poor people who are conservative but I have read there were Jews in the Nazi army in World War II. Go figure.
Neither party has Math in their corner.
The Conseratives don't understand how to get the number of votes they need. For that matter they don't know how to appeal to the youth, women, or minorities.
And the Liberals don't understand basic math; you can't spend $1,600,000,000,000 (that's what a trillion looks like folks) more than you make and expect everything to work out. Government in action.
Every member of congress is bought and paid for by regional or national interests, you think they funded their own campaigns? Good luck Americans, becasue these politicians (of both parties) do not have the American People's best interest in mind.
I am astounded by the comments for this article. The majority of drafters seem to have little or no grasp of facts, or choose to ignore reality. Statements that the Republican Party "drives away" minorities with absolutely no examples of facts not only diminishes the feeble attempt to demonize a party that championed the civil rights movement, it also smacks of a cool aid aftertaste.
I'm not a member of the Republican Party, but at least I make myself aware of what they stand for and what they don't do. The disadvantage the Republican Party suffers from is not having the full force of a grossly liberal media behind it. The choices that media makes fails to include reporting on highly successful minority Republican Party members that are warmly embraced, assisted to new heights in their political endeavors to represent their constituents, districts, states and their race with dignity. Minorities that join other Republican Party members in drafting legislation that will help other minorities help themselves out of poverty to reach financial success. That success can be measured by the size of their paycheck, or profits that don't get siphoned off by bureaucrats and politicians that think it's their duty to penalize their success.
Should the Republican Party change to suit the Liberal model? God NO! They should be working harder to make those that have been victimized by the modern day slavery of "free stuff" from the government. That's what the Democrat Party stands for (read: Free Stuff = Votes). The more people that can be addicted the better. The sad thing is that many will believe the "it's George Bush's fault" or "the Republican’s fault" when the administration talking point fed media pumps that propaganda out when the trend of no growth continues, or the inevitable second dip at the recession trough hits.
The best thing that could possibly happen for everyone is minorities finally realize that the person with their foot on their neck or has their hand in their wallet is not a Republican. After all it hasn't been that long ago the ones holding up civil rights legislation, and more recently excluded non-union workers from competing for contracts in New Jersey place a (D) after their name.