What happens if we go over the cliff?

As others have pointed out, the so-called fiscal cliff maybe isn't the best metaphor to use in describing the current debate over the looming tax increases and spending cuts set to take place in the new year.

After all, when you jump off a cliff, you usually don't live to tell about it.

But that isn't necessarily the case in this debate. If tax rates go up and spending cuts go into effect after Dec. 31, Congress always has the ability to fix things retroactively at a later date.

Perhaps a better metaphor to use is the deadline for midterm paper -- you might fail your class or flunk out of school if you don't complete the paper on time, or you could successfully negotiate to turn it in a later date, or you could do other things to boost your grades and standing in school.

Another metaphor is the deadline for a collective-bargaining agreement in professional sports -- having the contract expire could mean the end to the football or hockey season, or the principals could eventually reach a deal (even if that means a shortened season).

So what happens -- and what doesn't -- if Congress, as it increasingly appears, fails to reach a fiscal deal before the new year?

On Christmas, the New York Times ran a good summary:

Some hits — like a two percentage point increase in payroll taxes and the end of unemployment benefits for more than two million jobless Americans — would be felt right away. But other effects, like tens of billions in automatic spending cuts, to include both military and other programs, would be spread out between now and the end of the 2013 fiscal year in September. These could quickly be reversed if a compromise is found.

Similarly, the expiration of Bush-era tax cuts on Jan. 1 would not have a major impact on consumers if Congress quickly agreed to extend them for all but the wealthiest Americans in early 2013, as is widely expected.

Other probable changes, like a jump in taxes on capital gains and dividends, would most likely be felt over a broader period rather than as an immediate blow to the economy.

So the world doesn't come to an end on Jan. 2 or Jan. 3. But the question will turn to: What does Congress and the Obama White House do to fix things and limit the damage?

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This recession would be over now if Obama had not spent us into poverty.We have gone from FDRs' "New Deal", which was a total failure, to the Obamas' "Bad Deal" which produced results similar but worse than FDR's policies.Supply side economics has been debunked as a viable solution to economic stresses that are produced by lengthy recessions.This economic theory has been tried before,each time it failed.You ,the"less than literate" voters, who put this "less than literate" clown back in office ,are responsible for everything that happens in the next 4 years.I personally hope that for next 4 years each and everyone of you continue to suffer.Then, maybe the next time you vote,you might think of the consequences before you vote,not 3 months after you vote!

    Reply#77 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:30 PM EST

    Yeah, it wasn't really 'smart' of him to put the cost of those two wars...back on the books. We had prosperity until those two IOU's were acknowledged. He shoulda found a way to keep the housing bubble outasight also. I mean Seriously! what's a President For but to Hide expenditures? Come on, DC needs to get with the program & not tell us what they spend. It makes life sooo much simpler.

    • 1 vote
    #77.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:39 PM EST
    Reply

    If Americans want the cradle to grave security blanket promised by Obama they need to learn they need to pay for it. 51% think somehow their entitled to a free lunch.

      Reply#78 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:30 PM EST

      I don't know about other folks, but I 'PAID' the maximum into Social Security and Medicare.......it was a 'contract' with the government, hence, I am 'entitled'. No difference from any other insurance policy I own. (I am self-employed)

      • 1 vote
      #78.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:38 PM EST

      DKL - 348...,

      How would you balance the budget?

        #78.2 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:16 PM EST
        Reply

        The first proposal by President Obama was perfectly fine and should have been passed immediately. There is no excuse for why it was not.

        • 1 vote
        Reply#79 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:35 PM EST

        Agree, except for the unlimited budget ceiling idea.

          #79.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:36 PM EST
          Reply

          America deserves the fiscal cliff.

          Since so many have been bribed to vote Democrat because of the free this and that (that is actually paid for by someone else), I think that it is fair that everyone feels the pain of giving moochers free stuff.

          And remember, when we go over the fiscal cliff, the tax rates will be the Clinton/Democrat era tax rates. But, what will not be Clinton era will be the spending - it will be the hyper spending of the Obama years with marginal cuts in spending - and most of the cuts will be in programs that are Constitutionally required of the Federal government and minimal cuts in programs that aren't even Constitutionally authorized!

          So - to all of you IDIOTS who vote for Obama - you got what you deserve - smaller paychecks, higher taxes, higher prices, and less freedom.

          Party on fools!

            Reply#80 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:38 PM EST

            As I dream of all the glory I will gather as I solemnly wipe my tables (honest work ,by the way) and endure the wrath of those financial "(guru's) posted above, who apparently are better(or worse) trolling, then finanace.

            Any how, too many butt heads in the way of gaining any of what we have lost these past 20 years or so. hard times for some now, for all not too much longer.

              Reply#81 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:41 PM EST

              After reading some of the most nauseating butt kissing from Fiesty and her sidekick Job1 the simple truth remains that after all your groveling and lame wisecracks, this country is still divided so bad that no matter what happens 50/50 of blame towards Dems and GOP will happen. Nobody is in love with the D.C fatcats right now and guess what? They don't care a rats butt about you or your taxes going up or what that is going to do to your budget. Both parties will continue vacationing in Hawaii, throwing lavish parties while U.S people starve and hunker down. Perhaps you should give your lips a rest until someone worthy shows up

                Reply#82 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:45 PM EST

                lets see Obama has a 56% approval rating, Bonehead Boehner sits about 26%. Its not 50/50 but then assumptions are all Tea Jerks are good for.

                Didnt anybody tell you assumptions makes asses of u and me?

                We dont have a deficit problem we have a JOBS problem. You are the MINORITY. Get used to it- your ideas(being generous) have been REJECTED

                  #82.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 5:54 PM EST
                  Reply

                  Congress with their $1/4 million payrolls are so out of touch with America and Americans. They know no matter what they'll be fine with their lucrative salaries and benefits but they have no sympathy for the rest of the common man in this country.

                  If they push us over the cliff they should all be lined up over the Grand Canyon and pushed over the edge.

                  Tit for tat I always say.

                  Obama should be included of course.

                  • 1 vote
                  Reply#83 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:00 PM EST

                  This is a poor example to use about sports leagues collective bargaining agreements when the NHL is on over 100 days of a lockout. Do you know something we don't about the NHL settling their lockout when you refer to the principals settling for a shortened season? But there are other possibilities, the NHLPA could fold, or the NHL could disband. Not a good example to use in the fiscal cliff case.

                    Reply#84 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:22 PM EST

                    No more taxes. No more greed. No more corruption.

                      Reply#85 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:23 PM EST

                      "What happens when we go over the cliff?" I'll get a pay cut,just what I and my family needs. Merry F'n Christmas.

                        Reply#86 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:26 PM EST

                        What will happen? Nothing. The world ended December 21st.

                          Reply#87 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:28 PM EST

                          "I remember here recently when some lady from the deep south was just going off (she said she was from Alabama I think), just going bat schit crazy, because there was a sudden hurricane or storm of some sort that swept by and just knocked her house to pieces, so she said, but I believed her because of the passion that was coming through in her words. She was just wailing about getting help, and why no one was coming to help her, and this was around the time when Republicans were all but demanding an end to FEMA.

                          My point is, if it was you, Bill, who needed that money like these 2 million American do, you'd support these people in need.

                          But unless and until it hits you, you could care less.

                          I just wasn't raised that way."

                          @American Girl

                          So I have a question for you in regards to the bold faced font in your post that I selected.....

                          Before I ask this question, I will tell you this much. I feel for those who can't find a job but do EVERYTHING to find one, no matter what the sacrafice. I truly feel for those people. I also work full time (hourly) and go to college full time (CIS Major). I pay for everything out of pocket, manage a budget using an Excel spreadsheet and study financials and consumer spending habits (to help learn how to save money the right way). As you can imagine, this takes alot of work and time, but I manage well on an hourly job....

                          Who I could give two @!$%#s about are the people who "cry wolf" but DO ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to better their lives, then whine about the rich and then find themselves voting a straight democratic ticket in terms that they can just "float" or "cruise" through life on someone elses dime. These are the people that need to be cut off, done with, and maybe once they've hit "rock bottom" they'll finally learn how to survive for themselves and start doing WHATEVER it takes to survive.

                          Now, that I am finished. I will ask this question.

                          Would you want to help someone out of the kindness of your heart that really deserves it or be forced by popular vote to pay higher taxes to keep those afloat who find every excuse not to go outside of their comfort zone?

                            Reply#88 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:32 PM EST

                            rez- I am willing to bet that probably 5% of the populace takes advantage of unemployment or disabilibity payments. I just don't think people who were employed for years who lost their job due to NO fault of their own suddendly lose their work ethic.

                            I admire what you are doing,. Many of us have done the same and it makes a better person of you to have "earned" your stripes. Keep the faith,

                              #88.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:51 PM EST
                              Reply

                              There are no spending cuts. The so-called cuts are reductions in the God-awful amount of money Congress would have increased in spending. The first thing that should happen if no deal is reached is for all of Congress to not get paid.

                                Reply#89 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:42 PM EST

                                conehed:

                                first remove the cone. It has affected your thought process.

                                Second- we do not have a deficit problem. How can Japan remain the third largest economy, sell long term debt for very low rates yet have a debt to GNP of 250% if your ideas of debt being important operate? How come your side cannot point to a single country anywhere in the world that has utilized your reduce deficits first where it increased economic output??????? How come every prediction your side has made(is the dollar worthless today) has failed to transpire?

                                Perhaps, just maybe, your side bet on the wrong horse? Maybe that's why you hold a minority view- you lost seats in the House(8), you lost seats in the Senate(3), and you failed to win the Presidency. So you lost two of three yet somehow act as if you hold the majority rule and everyone has to bow to your concerns.

                                just dont get it

                                  #89.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:59 PM EST
                                  Reply

                                  The ramifications of the 'cliff' will not be felt immediately, which will give most of the incompetent Republican Congressmen to get out of the country before their constituents march on their offices demanding an explanation!!!

                                    Reply#90 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:54 PM EST

                                    Yep, Obama failed again.

                                      #90.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:08 PM EST

                                      Bump- your side lost the Presidency. You lost seats in the Senate. You even lost seats in the House.

                                      Who asked the republiCONS to lead again??????????????????

                                        #90.2 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:21 PM EST
                                        Reply

                                        Dblackman

                                        I for one am happy about the "Fiscal Cliff". We all as Americans are in line to have our taxes increase, as well we should. It is easy to stand back and scream that the other guy should pay more. We all are responsible for the fiscal mess, we have allowed the politicians to buy our votes with our tax dollars.

                                        If everyone has "skin in the game" maybe we will all pay more attention when the over bloated hog government of ours bellows "Feed Me!"

                                        Bring it on!

                                        We went over the fiscal cliff long ago, now we are just in free-fall. Soon there will be a sudden stop and all hell will break loose 4ward..

                                        Yes, Dbman yes, Bring it on, when we hit bottom, then the eagle can rise from the ashes too soar once again. Perhaps he will carry off a few of the bellowing swine while he is at it...

                                        Until then we should just, Get used to it, 4ward

                                          Reply#91 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:57 PM EST

                                          convenient- back to the dollar will be worthless, no one will buy our debt, hyperinflation is here. These are all predictions the Tea Jerks made a year ago, two years ago. Just a reply of the same predictions made in 1992 by Perot.

                                          Hell convenient keep on preaching, even a broken clock gets it right twice!!!!!!!!!

                                          Doesnt it bother you at all that your ideas have failed to happen?????? Doesnt it bother you that no country that has ried your ways has succeeded???????????

                                          What did you think of Dick Army using his "armed" bodyguard to get a 8 million payout to leave the Tea Party. R U a Kibble man??????

                                            #91.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:11 PM EST
                                            Reply

                                            Great Leadership from the Chief Occupant Barrack Oblama.

                                            Maybe you could have made a fix 4 years ago? 3 years ago? 2 years ago? 6 months ago? 3 Months ago?

                                            1 month ago?

                                            Barack Hussein Obama = FAIL

                                              Reply#92 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:07 PM EST

                                              Bump- you lost seats in the House. Despite 3 dems running for re election for each Republican in the Senate we picked up three seats. Despite years of screaming you knew America and Obama was a fascist marxist etc he was RE ELECTED.

                                              what part of Minority do you fail to understand???????

                                                #92.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:14 PM EST
                                                Reply

                                                Well, everyone wants to know what's going to happen if we go over the "cliff". I forsee a lot of extremely angry people, bent on straightening things out. Now how they will go about it, i dont know....but i would really NOT want to be an elected official at that point in time.

                                                2 million people losing unemployment is a lot of people to have upset.....not counting the pay freezes and people getting cut from assisstances and such.....

                                                yeah, i can say i'm glad i'm not one of those elected officials that aren't doing their job lol

                                                it will be interesting to see how everything plays out

                                                  Reply#93 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:10 PM EST

                                                  The Country will improve if the first one over the Cliff is the idiot Boehner, this loser is ruining this country.

                                                    Reply#94 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:17 PM EST

                                                    After reading nearly 300 posts here, I can´t help but wonder why we don´t just dump the tax code, go to a flat tax and drop all exemptions, loopholes, etc. Make minimum wage times 40 hrs X 52 wks the starting point of the table and we will finally all be treated equally

                                                      Reply#95 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:17 PM EST

                                                      its not about equality- its about fairness.

                                                      The greeks were the first to try democracy. They did it using the progressive tax code. They felt it was the right approach- for those who gained the most to contribute the most.

                                                        #95.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:23 PM EST
                                                        Reply

                                                        The world isn't going to end. They're going to increase spending in other areas and tax us more. They know what their doing. They're just making this a dog and pony show for the sheeple.. BFD... meanwhile, inflation will be taking its toll on the rest of us and they will not do one damned thing about it... politicians love inflation because that means more tax revenue for them.. when things cost more, you pay more tax on it.. f*k 'em..

                                                          Reply#96 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:28 PM EST

                                                          isnt the hyperinflation overdue by 12 months???????????? Keep on pitching the same BS Mrpitchfork

                                                            #96.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:33 PM EST
                                                            Reply

                                                            Start by getting the hell out of the Middle East. Next tell Israel to pay for its own wars. Get Congress & The Senate on S.S.& health care like the rest of us. Those 3 things alone would bring in 3 to 6 $$BILLION$$ a month.

                                                            Larry

                                                              Reply#97 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:40 PM EST

                                                              Add to that, a 50% reduction in military bases everywhere around the world. Our military has far surpassed anything needed for self-protection - it's become an empire-builder, existing mainly to enrich the defense industry.

                                                              Since the republicans would only increase the size of military spending, the cliff is the only way to get this massive spending under control.

                                                              For more savings and to return freedom to our country, we also must repeal the Patriot Act and dissolve the TSA. This agency is nothing but a de facto military force, whose only reason for existence is to provide welfare checks for those too stupid to get a real job.

                                                              Want to cut welfare? Eliminate the TSA!

                                                                #97.1 - Fri Dec 28, 2012 1:41 AM EST
                                                                Reply

                                                                Mr. Jefferson-

                                                                We have long been 'over the cliff'. The real problem is that no one on either side is truly doing anything about it.

                                                                As for food stamps... I have never received any government 'assistance' or unemployment. It wouldn't bother me one bit if it were to be gone. There is a very small percentage of those receiving it now that actually need it, and they should be the only ones getting the help. Unlike many, I have always worked where I can and live within my current means unlike many in 'your' party that you apparently voted for. If that meant working three jobs at a lower wage that 'your' party says one can't live on, then that is what I did. There are always jobs available. It is a matter of not believing you are too good to do them.

                                                                Thanks for trying to straighten me out, but I'm still not willing to simply hold out my hand and expect everyone else to take care of me.

                                                                  Reply#98 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:46 PM EST

                                                                  Predictions,
                                                                  All tea bagger Taliban gone bye 2020
                                                                  All GOP god for guns and rape ass holes gone,,,
                                                                  Assult weapons and 30 round mags,,gone
                                                                  Dems control both houses and the white house
                                                                  Hillary

                                                                    Reply#99 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:51 PM EST

                                                                    Ya had me until "Hillary".

                                                                    ;-)

                                                                      #99.1 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:55 PM EST
                                                                      Reply

                                                                      But the question will turn to: What does Congress and the Obama White House do to fix things and limit the damage?

                                                                      Probably not much. The American people can do something about it in 2014, but will they? Probably not. We keep re-electing the same bunch of as$holes every two years.

                                                                        Reply#100 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 7:54 PM EST

                                                                        Why doesn't Congress ever give itself a pay cut? Has it ever done it?

                                                                          Reply#101 - Thu Dec 27, 2012 8:01 PM EST
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