John Kerry and the prospect of an empty MA Senate seat

J. Scott Applewhite / AP, file

John Kerry is pursued by reporters as he arrives for a closed-door meeting about the assault on the American consulate in Benghazi, Libya, on Capitol Hill on Nov. 13.

The second-term cabinet intrigue continues.

Although U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice remains the front-runner to be President Obama's next secretary of state, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) is still in contention for the post.

And if Rice gets that coveted job, it's assumed that Kerry might become the next defense secretary.

But Kerry getting either position presents one potential downside for Democrats: His exit from the Senate would trigger a special election in Massachusetts, with recently defeated Republican Scott Brown waiting in the wings to possibly mount a comeback.

That prospect could very well explain why Senate Republicans have showered praise on Kerry after all the controversy surrounding Rice's initial statements about the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi.

On Wednesday, Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) -- who told reporters about her concerns about Rice after meeting with the U.N. ambassador -- offered that Kerry would be "an excellent appointment."

Brown even recommended Kerry for the secretary of state job at a Nov. 13 press conference in response to a question about whether Kerry would make a good defense secretary. “I’ve already been public on that quite a while ago. And I’ve told him personally that I thought he would make an excellent secretary of state. I haven’t even thought about any other positions but those are questions best asked of him and the president.”

But the running theory that Republicans want Kerry as secretary of state to so they can win his Senate seat ignores two realities.

One, that Senate seat is likely to be vacant whether or not Kerry gets the secretary of state job -- because he would be in line for the defense job.

Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.), one of Rice's chief critics, said it was "absurd" to think that Republicans are opposing Rice to open up Kerry's Senate seat. "I would remind you this is an issue that I was pursuing and others long before the election, before we knew whether Scott Brown was going to win that election. So I think that claim is absurd.”

And two, Brown or any other Republican wouldn't have an easy time winning in a special election. "We don't think another Senate run is going to play differently for him," said Matt Canter, communications director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

"He lost by eight points. It was not a close race." Democrat Elizabeth Warren beat Brown, 54%-46%.

And a plugged-in Massachusetts Democrat tells First Read, "The reality is, Scott Brown's only a Goliath in the eyes of Beltway liberals still scarred by his special election win two years ago," adding: "His brand is badly damaged in Massachusetts, even if his legend lives on in Washington."

But a Kerry vacancy would give Brown or any other Republican a chance -- which is a better prospect that they have now.

As one GOP operative emails, “I’d certainly like to see that vacancy, and I’d like to see Scott run.”

*** UPDATE *** Also according to the exit polls, 60% of Massachusetts voters on Election Day had a favorable opinion of Brown (versus 56% who said the same about Warren).

NBC's Tom Curry contributed to this article.

Discuss this post

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Kerry needs to stay where he is. He had his chance. He is needed in the Senate so we don't lose the seat. If he's still alive in a few years and the Dems have a stronger candidate, then he can take a cushy Cabinet job.

    Reply#54 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 6:35 AM EST

    nycguy, in case you didn't know Seeking Sanity (and never finding it) is from chicago. That should tell you anything you want to know about her. Her,Feisty and Bev are known as the carpenter sisters, tongue and groove.

      Reply#55 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 7:21 AM EST

      Kerry would be a perfect fit for the Obama administration, the first thing he will do as Secretary of State would be to apologize to Vietnam.

        Reply#56 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 7:27 AM EST

        Kerry is a idiot but I don't think he is a lying stooge like Rice.

          Reply#57 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 8:53 AM EST

          Who Liveshot! Biggest fraud ever to grace the American political scene! They don't come any phonier ! There is nothing real about this guy, down to his underwear! Now if you were picking the gigolo of the month, I would consider him.

            Reply#58 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 9:33 AM EST

            John Kerry has done absolutely nothing to help this country. He and Mitt Romney are preparing their large yachts (yes, they have more than one each) to sail to the Caribbean, taking much of their spendable cash with them to avoid paying taxes. They may not stay there, but they will certainly leave much of the cash behind in 'safe' bank accounts where George Bush has most of his money.

              Reply#59 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 9:41 AM EST

              So playing the whole thing for the MA Senate seat is absurd, but the continued flagellation of a messenger is not?

              The only question I have: are Republicans really this stupid, or do they really believe we're this stupid?

                Reply#60 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 9:58 AM EST

                I am amazed that POTUS has not offered Mohammed Morsi, Hillery Clinton's position, or maybe POTUS is reserving that announcement for his nomination of Morsi, for the new Secretary of Defense! {:-(}

                  Reply#61 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 10:18 AM EST

                  It doesn't matter who gets appointed. The foreign policies will still be the same old circus policies dictated by the white house clowns.

                    Reply#62 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 10:32 AM EST

                    It is unlikely that Kerry's senate seat would go to a Republican. I'm sure the Dems could dig up yet another Kennedy and run them for it. As it is, I am not sure a super-rich libby peacenick is the best choice for either state or defense. Hillary has bigger balls than Kerry, and Panetta is simply smarter. So, Kerry would be a downgrade from either of them. Dig deeper, Mr. Obama. Find somebody else, please.

                      Reply#63 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:05 AM EST

                      It Doesn't matter who gets the job of secretary of state, nothing will change. Everything will go on as before. We will go on Apologizing to the muslims.

                        Reply#64 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:17 AM EST

                        Wonder how long it will take to break out the swift boat guys?

                          Reply#65 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:31 AM EST

                          Maddow got it right on her show: This is about the attempt to clear Kerry's Senate seat for Scott Brown, giving the GOP one more Senate seat than they have today. They want that seat so bad they can taste it and they are giving Rice a hard time for that reason alone. My favorite outcome would be for Obama to appoint a Republican for the job -- Jon Huntsman -- and let the GOP try to swallow that one. Huntsman is no lightweight. He has experience as a very successful governor and an equally successful ambassador -- appointed by Obama. He is a relatively moderate Republican and speaks fluent Chinese. China is going to be a major competitor in the next four years and will have significant influence on North Korea so someone comfortable with China and its culture is a very strong candidate. However he can also save the MA seat and strengthen the foreign policy hand of Kerry within the Senate.

                          Obama reached across the aisle to Gates, who had served under Bush, and who did a creditable job for Obama. Sometimes the country is more important than the party. Sometimes.

                            Reply#66 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:44 AM EST

                            Secretary of state should be one job for a man. The job requires dealing with leaders of other countries, and there are a lot of countries that do not respect women.

                            BS on the senate seat. Kerry will take one of the jobs. That one seat wont matter no matter who wins it.

                              Reply#67 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:56 AM EST

                              Madeline Albright was an outstanding Secretary of State.

                                #67.1 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 3:51 PM EST
                                Reply

                                Hey John Kerry, "Why such the long face?"

                                  Reply#68 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:53 PM EST

                                  Senator Kerry needs to continue serving the people of Massachusetts. He needs to concentrate on domestic issues, foreign policy will be taken care of with experienced a diplomat. I'm surprised that no one has mentioned Huntsman for the job!

                                    Reply#69 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 3:49 PM EST

                                    The only inexcusable thing Obama did was when he plucked Janet Napolitano out of her job as governor of Arizona to become secretary of homeland security. Her departure left us 17 Arizona democrats with frighteningly dopey Jan Brewer (for god's sake). The weather here is lovely (especially this time of year) but, man, it felt like we had a bit of hope for some sense when we had a democratic governor in this backward, mindlessly knee-jerk conservative state.

                                    It would be such a mistake to open up that Massachusett's senate seat to opportunistic Scott Brown and those noisy, sneaky Susan Rice detractors. By most accounts he's not a bad guy but, please, the margin is too thin to risk putting one more republican back in the mix. And, besides... it's unforgiveable that John Kerry "lost" to incredibly beatable George.

                                      Reply#70 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 5:14 PM EST

                                      U.N. ambassador has investments in companies doing business with Iran, disclosure forms show

                                      The portfolio of embattled United Nations Ambassador Susan Rice includes investments of hundreds of thousands of dollars in several energy companies known for doing business with Iran, according to financial disclosure forms.

                                      Rice, a possible nominee to replace Secretary of State Hillary Clinton when she steps down, has come under criticism for promulgating erroneous information about the September 11, 2012, attacks in Benghazi, Libya, that killed four Americans.

                                      Rice has the highest net worth of executive branch members, with a fortune estimated between $24 to $44 million, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. A Free Beacon analysis of Rice's portfolio shows thousands of dollars invested in at least three separate companies cited by lawmakers on Capitol Hill for doing business in Iran's oil and gas sector.

                                      The revelation of these investments could pose a problem for Rice if she is tapped by President Barack Obama to replace Clinton. Among the responsibilities of the next secretary of state will be a showdown with Iran over its nuclear enrichment program.

                                      "That Susan Rice invested in companies doing business in Iran shows either the Obama administration's lack of seriousness regarding Iran or Rice's own immorality," said Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon adviser on Iran and Iraq. "Either way, her actions undercut her ability to demand our allies unity on Iran."

                                      The companies in question appear to have conducted business with Tehran well after Western governments began to urge divestment from the rogue nation, which has continued to enrich uranium near levels needed to build a nuclear bomb.

                                      Financial disclosures reveal that Rice has had $50,001-$100,000 in Royal Dutch Shell, a longtime purchaser of Iranian crude oil.

                                      Royal Dutch Shell currently owes Iran nearly $1 billion in back payments for crude oil that it purchased before Western economic sanctions crippled Tehran's ability to process oil payments, Reuters reported.

                                      "A debt of that size would equate to roughly four large tanker loads of Iranian crude or about 8 million barrels," according to the report.

                                      Rice has additional investments in Norsk Hydro ASA, a Norwegian aluminum firm, and BHP Billiton PLC, an Australian-based natural resources company, financial disclosure show.

                                      Norway's Norsk Hydro was awarded in 2006 a $107 million exploration and development contract for Iran's Khorramabad oil block, according to the Wall Street Journal. Rice's portfolio includes an investment of up to $15,000 in the company.

                                      Norsk acknowledged at the time that it was working in Iran against the wishes of the U.S. government.

                                      America is "not happy that we're there," Norsk Hydro spokeswoman Kama Holte Strand told the Journal at the time. Holte admitted that the company was working with Tehran because it is "profitable."

                                      Rice has up to $50,000 invested with another Iranian partner, BHP Billiton, which was probed by the Securities and Exchange Commission in 2010 for its dealings with Cuba and Iran, according to reports.

                                      The company, which had leased office space in Tehran, admitted to making more than $360 million from the Iranians, according to The Australian.

                                      BHP Billiton sought to build a natural gas pipeline between 2002 and 2005 in conjunction with the National Iranian Oil Company, according the report. The company's subsidiaries additionally "sold alumina, coking coal, manganese, and copper to state-owned Iranian companies."

                                      The House of Representatives passed a bill in 2007 that took aim at these companies and other that had done business with Iran. The bill enabled state and local governments to divest from these companies due to their dealings with Iran.

                                      Then-senator Obama proposed and supported a similar bill at the time.

                                      It is unclear how White House press secretary Jay Carney will respond to the latest revelations about Rice. Previous questions from the media about Rice's investment in the company building the controversial Keystone XL pipeline were dismissed by Carney as information from "Republican opposition researchers."

                                        Reply#71 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 5:17 PM EST

                                        This free citizen is G---- D---- sick & tired of the games those overpayed numskulls on the "Hill" play. Our country is rapidly falling apart, on the verge of "Greece" and they're Effing around over Rice - I'm so mad I could spit. Of course that wouldn't do any good -

                                          Reply#72 - Thu Nov 29, 2012 7:48 PM EST

                                          This would be highly ironic even for Washington. Only an extreme liberal would even consider appointing an anti-war demonstrator to be Secretary of Defense.

                                            Reply#73 - Fri Nov 30, 2012 6:34 AM EST

                                            true

                                              #73.1 - Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:45 AM EST
                                              Reply

                                              Well, if there is a special election, I for one will not be voting for Brown if he runs. His ad campaign against Elizabeth Warren soured me on him forever. He attacked her a lot more than he told about his own positions and plans, and when he did talk about his voting record, he lied repeatedly. I guess he isn't smart enough to figure out that anyone with an internet connection can research what his actual votes were, and that they were often different than what he stated. He may be a JAG officer, but I think he forgot that respect and integrity are the Army Values that he is supposed to dedicate himself to living--and not just while in uniform.

                                                Reply#74 - Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:09 AM EST

                                                kinda makes you wonder how brown got elected in the first place..... ----------- on the other hand, if only the wealthy voted for republicans, no republican candidate would ever get elected, anywhere.

                                                  #74.1 - Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:30 AM EST
                                                  Reply

                                                  The smart thing for Obama to do is to nominate a middle of the road Republican for the position. That would throw a curve ball to the Republicans. Possibly a Democrat would be elected to that persons Senate seat. Always reverse your enemies playbook and thoughts. Keep your Friends close, and your enemies closer.

                                                    Reply#75 - Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:45 AM EST

                                                    out of curiosity, i wonder if any president has ever done that....

                                                      #75.1 - Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:00 AM EST
                                                      Reply

                                                      a senior senator has a lot of clout ---- do the democrats really want to lose some of that political power in the senate ???

                                                        Reply#76 - Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:46 AM EST

                                                        McCain is a proven buffoon.

                                                        He lost his "clout" when he went over the tea party cliff.

                                                        • 1 vote
                                                        #76.1 - Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:34 AM EST

                                                        mccain ??? ---- i thought this article was about kerry...... ----- who cares what mccain says????

                                                          #76.2 - Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:39 AM EST
                                                          Reply

                                                          McCain is trying to tell the President who to pick.

                                                          Sorry, McCain, you aren't President.

                                                          You lost.

                                                          • 1 vote
                                                          Reply#77 - Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:33 AM EST

                                                          so did kerry.

                                                            #77.1 - Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:40 AM EST

                                                            But Obama won....twice!

                                                            So Obama gets to pick, not some has been.

                                                            Please keep up!

                                                            • 1 vote
                                                            #77.2 - Fri Nov 30, 2012 11:21 AM EST

                                                            obama only gets to pick a potential candidate for a position ---- congress will make the ultimate decision.

                                                              #77.3 - Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:05 PM EST
                                                              Reply

                                                              If Sen. Kerry get picked for the job, the teapublicans will not win his vacant Senate seat, especially not the same butthole the people just voted out. I tried to tell people that Browns senate seat would go back to the Democrates, like all things, the right wingers didn't believe it.....of course. Now Brown is out and Warren is in. Ambassador Rice is more than qualified for the job of SECSTATE, but that don't mean that the President will nominate her or Kerry for the job. Whoever the President nominates will be more than qualified......as long as it's not Condi Rice or Kelly Ayotte....she don't look very smart.

                                                                Reply#78 - Fri Nov 30, 2012 12:34 PM EST
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