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Despite talk of Mitt Romney’s momentum in the final weeks of the presidential campaign, Barack Obama cruised to a wide Electoral Vote victory and his popular-vote margin wound up closely mirroring George W. Bush’s 2004 victory.
In fact, voter confidence in the president consistently improved as Election Day neared and was nearly the identical level Bush had before his reelection, a review of data for the NBC News Voter Confidence Index shows.
Former Treasury Secretary and Harvard professor Lawrence Summers joins Morning Joe to discuss the looming fiscal cliff, his belief in natural gas, President Obama's first term and his role in the administration.
President Obama’s VCI score was -11 for the month of October, exactly the same as Bush’s score in October 2004.
Despite his first debate performance and Romney’s claim of momentum, Obama never saw a drop in that period in the VCI. Obama’s VCI went from -29 in August to -15 in September to -11 in October and -10 in the first week of November.
And that improvement was squarely because Americans told pollsters in the fall they felt better about the direction of the country.
The VCI uses a combination of the president’s job approval rating, the direction of the country, and the so-called generic congressional ballot, which tracks voter preference between parties rather than individual candidates. There is equal weight given to all three questions. The difference between two sets of numbers in each question is calculated and then added up.
For example, Obama’s average job approval rating for the month of October was +2; the direction of the country average score was -14; and the generic congressional ballot was +1 for a -11.
Obama’s average approval rating remained fairly consistent throughout the 2012 campaign. It hit its lowest point (-8) right after the debt-ceiling debacle in September 2011. Combining the bad direction of the country score (-52) with the generic ballot (Republican were ahead by 3 points that month), Obama had his worst VCI score of his presidency : -63.
NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the ongoing fiscal cliff negotiations and how Grover Norquist's no-tax-increase pledge plays into the discussion. Plus, what happened when Susan Rice made a visit to The Hill.
No president had ever been reelected with a VCI that bad. Jimmy Carter had a -72 VCI right before the 1980 election he lost. George H.W. Bush was -84 right before the 1992 election he lost.
The successful presidents reelected since 1980 – Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton – enjoyed high VCI scores. Reagan stood at +62 in 1984 before his landslide victory. Clinton was at +45 before his sweeping reelection over Republican Bob Dole.
The generic ballot portion of the VCI in 2012 also remained consistent with Democrats holding a slight lead most months.
But direction of the country is what really moved and likely buoyed the president to a second term. More Americans said they were more optimistic about the direction of the country as November 2012 neared. It went from a nadir of -56 in October 2011 to -23 in March by the time the GOP presidential primary wrapped up.
The VCI score for direction of the country stayed in the -20s through July, dipped to -30 in August and then began to break through that plateau after the parties' conventions. The score improved to -19 in September, the best since May 2011 – the month Osama bin Laden was killed.
Before that, direction of the country hadn’t been that strong since January 2010. And at that point, it was trending in the other direction.
The direction of the country average improved again in October to -14 and again in that first week of November to -13.
It’s clear that how people feel about the country -- whether it’s headed off on the wrong track or in the right direction -- is perhaps the most telling indicator of whether a president will be reelected.
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Hey, Look at me!!!!!!!!!!!! I'm like the Patriotic American U.S.A. Guy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Everything in BOLD, Lots of exclamation points!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
My repub friends claim that the economy will tumble soon and we will all be taxed to death- heard the same thing in 1994 and it didn't happen. However, once they got in it did happen in 2008
so, if the economy doesn't collapse in the next 4 years, if unemployment drops, the markets stay good and we don't get in another bogus war, what will be the explanation? Just askin, the fox crowd has a pretty poor batting average on issues. 2000 was the best economy in the history of the US, 2008 was one of the largest drops. But the Iraq war, you guys really missed on that one. Plame, Tora Bora- I'm trying to keep an open mind but the facts just keep having a liberal bias.
But the "poll-gate", come-on gang, that one was downright stupid. The only thing worse than stupid is believe BS after it is proven wrong. Then Romney has a huge success, Romney care. Running from your good ideas that work is even dumber than believing in disproven ideas.
It's amazing; they want the economy to fail, just so that they can say "I told you so"
I'm curious to see in 3 or 4 years who the Democratic Party will blame - it's seems to be part of their platform - finding a scapegoat....and believing that they are blameless constantly.
Anyone who would turn their backs on four American lives and buy into the most obvious cover-up ever should be ashamed. But those who voted for Obama did just that.
Now you have to live with that.
The Right will not accept the blame what happened from 2000-20008. 12 years of lower taxes which caused rising deficits. Didn't create any jobs. Collapse of the economy. The 2% having 90 percent if the gains over the past 12 years.
Most of all you will not accept these fact:
Jobs Lost Month by Month in 2008
January: +41,000
February: -84,000
March: -95,000
April: -208,000
May: -190,000
June: -208,000
July: -210,000
August: -274,000
September: -432,000
October: -489,000
November: -803,000
December: -661,000
Jobs Lost Month by Month in 2009
January: -818,000
February: -724,000
March: -799,000
April: -692,000
May: -361,000
June: -482,000
July: -339,000
August: -231,000
September: -199,000
October: -202,000
November: -42,000
December: -171,000
4,213,000 PRIVATE-sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were LOST from the time Obama took office until the "trough" of the recession in early 2010.
5,180,000 PRIVATE-sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) were GAINED OR CREATED from the "trough" of the recession until now, September 2012.
In total, 967,000 private sector jobs (in seasonally adjusted numbers) have been GAINED from the time Obama took office until now, September 2012.
Out of all of that calamity there is a net gain of 967,000 jobs to date of Sep 2012.
Really?... Really?
First lets get this out of the way... No one turned their backs on four American lives. Read the details and try and understand what it is that we know so far. The investigation continues and it certainly isn't a valid or reasonable assessment by Kelly, Lindsey and Johnny.
Secondly, blaming the previous administration is a "platform" attribute. Every credible economist has said that the damage that was done was far more severe than anticipated thanks to many practices by the previous administration. We're still feeling those effects today and will likely feel them for some time. After all, we were inches away from a depression. Again, do a little research and try to understand the dynamics and the contributors.
BTW, the Japanese are still responsible for the Pearl Harbor attack.
Over 50% of the people DID NOT vote for Obama and these liberal news agencies are trying real hard to make a good smoke screen, mirror tricks and tap dance with that over 50%.
Trying sooo hard to make it seem like those over 50% that DID NOT vote for Obama somehow just got it wrong and they really had more confidence in the other guy, even though they DID NOT vote for Obama.
And now the news report that most states unemployment dropped by half. BULL and more BULL. Either they filled temp jobs that are dead end jobs and will end on Dec. 24th when the store closes, or their unemployment benefits ran out.
Obama has not pulled some liberal socialism Obamazim magic trick that suddenly because he was re-elected by a thin, thin thread that all is going to be coming up roses.
We are only months behind Europe in the crises. Europe knows it, the over 50% that did not vote for Obama know it, the only people who don't know it, and still have their butts up their back sides are the 50% liberal socialists who did vote for Obama.
Obama 51%, Romney 47%
Obama 332 Electoral votes, Romney 206 Electoral votes.
Obama won all 10 of the swing states.
No matter how you try to spin it, Romney got his butt kicked.
I love the smell of sour grapes in the morning.
"Over 50% of the people DID NOT vote for Obama"
And even fewer people voted for Mitt Romney. Romney LOST. Get over it. Stop the endless whining, the excuses, the rationalizations and the rest of the bull-hit. Stop blaming the media, the weather, the phase of the moon or whatever lame ass excuse you can find. If you want to win next time --- FIND A BETTER CANDIDATE.
More people feel better about the direction that this country is headed today because more people are stupid, don't speak English and yet are allowed to vote as compared to the days or Reagan and Clinton.
I'd never argue with you on the issue of stupidity, Coolhand. It is quite apparent that you have taken that affliction to a level of high perfection. Sometimes is best to just be silent rather than speak and remove all doubt about latent ignorance ~ as your post exemplifies.
Jim are you referring to Proverbs or Lincolns use of that statement? It really doesn't matter but I will bet that you would not meet me at the local Bill Millers, What-a-burger or HEB parking lot to discuss my intelligence over a cup of coffee.
And the fact that don't have a stand on the issue but chose to post a slight anyway makes you sir, a troll, most likely a liberal troll.
I don't care about the "feelings" of the masses; when do we get our free stuff?!
"soon those dumbed down youth you speak of are ones who are going inherit and run this country"
Sorry. The only people who are going to inherit and run this country are now launching air craft carriers in the South China Sea.
If we keep cutting taxes and borrowing money from them maybe they will, but I doubt it. This country is finally going to stop trying to bend the world to our will and start to strengthen our nation from the inside.
The first thing we need to do is to stop fighting wars on credit.
What utter media nonsense. I highly doubt that the nearly 50% who did not vote for Obama, along with the honest people who did vote for him actually believe the economy is becoming fiscally sound. Some folks are gullible, naive media believers, however most look and listen and can figure out the dire mess this country is in.
"however most look and listen and can figure out the dire mess this country is in."
No one said the economy is fiscally sound, but it is a lot better than it was. It sure won't get sound by cutting taxes. We have already been through that a couple of times already. Why continue something that has already failed.
Uh . . . . yep. And we just heard from one of that type. Your brief thesis is a veritable parroting of the swill heard daily on the Limbaugh, Hannity, O'Reilly, Ingrahm, Levin, Savage, and Huckabee radio shows, then presented in living color with a lot of leg by FoxNews. Then there is National Review, The American Standard, and the editorial section of the Wall Street Murdoch Journal and other rightwing rags.
Facts Republicans Hate:
Job losses per month in January 2008: 800,000
Job gains last month: 160,000
33 straight months of private sector job growth
GDP growth in 2008: negative 6%
GDP growth last year 2.9%
Dow Jones Average in January 2008: Under 8000
Dow Jones Average today: 13,000+
Record domestic oil production
GM – all time record profits
Near record corporate profits across the board
Osama Bin Laden --- dead
Iraq war --- over
Charlie
Facts that YOU hate.
Dow Jones average TODAY--12985.11
DOW Jones is UP because of the QE1 and QE2. NOT OBAMA!
Iraq War over. Thanks to the SOFA agreement between BUSH and the Iraq Gov't signed in 2008.
GM --- 26% still OWNED by the US Taxpayer. They didn't pay Income Taxes last year!
Record Domestic Oil Production ON PRIVATE LAND! Oil production DOWN on Federal land.
GDP Growth THIS YEAR DOWN TO 2%!!
God always knows best! He will open doors that no man can shut; and shut doors that no man can open.
Sure slammed a door on Romney, didn't She???
Hard to campaign as a better candidate for President when you admit the economy is doing much better than in 2009 because of the previous GOP adminstration and that you agree with most of the policies of the Dem incumbent. Romney was a moron. That he was the best candidate the GOP could field was more a reflection on the Party than on him. Not surprising that he was voted the "Least Influential" man of the year.
A fine example of how the public democratically-elects its representatives in a republic, and the republic must work within legal limits, because the public is ignorant.
To put it in terms of a household budget, the government is living on cash advances from its credit card. Republicans say spend less and borrow less. Democrats say steal from those who won't notice.
Yeah the republicans say that when they out of the white house. They are the ones who started the credit card. Ran up the debt while keeping the American people in the dark. Now they are so responsible. Remember Ronald Regan; the republicans hero? He started the credit card; before him, we lived within our means for 32 years after WWII. For the life of me; I cannot understand why republicans want to go down that Regan path again.
peikovian conveniently "forgets" that the GOP runs up debt too. Perhaps they want to spend less than the dems (and certainly their record is spotty, at best), but then they cut taxes to run up the debt just the same.
If the dems are "tax and spend" the GOP is "cut taxes and still spend", with equal results for debt.
GWB opened Gitmo, BHO maintains Gitmo. GWB overspent, BHO overspends. GWB mismanaged Central Asian wars, BHO abandons the region to nuclear Jihadis, and adds the Arab Spring as a bargain. GWB = demon, BHO = angel. It's all different and better with BHO, so they keep telling me. So whose cult am I going to believe? Neither of them does what I want, but I already know how Obama does that.
the problem peikovian is that your initial post was wrong. You tried to make the gop look good fiscally (spend less and borrow less) when that's just not true.
your bias is obvious.
Improved feelings about America and Americans was felt. Now is the time to Actually improve it and show to the World that America and Americans can DO IT. Now is the time to improve the American Economy and Make the USA an Economic, Financial, Military and Technological Superpower AS it was Before. GOD Bless the Americans. GOD BLESS THE USA. IN GOD WE TRUST.
Kevin Valentine Moraes
Mira Road (Thane)
Hey its Offically Piss Off the senate Republi-dumbs day!
Add your voice to Stop Repuli-Dumb Filibuster abuse and to Fix the Filibuster!!
Add your voice here: http://www.commoncause.org/site/apps/ka/ct/contactus.asp?c=dkLNK1MQIwG&b=8090653&en=efKEKMNtFbLEJLNqF8IDIMPuHgJUIXNpE7ILI1NDIjJVJ6NMG
Most Democrats have the cranial capacity of a Gnat, the Flim Flam Man fooled them again. Not Only is this nation faced with default, the tax burden and unintended consequences of an Amateur Leader will crush any incentive to produce. As well as the degrading of the value of Citizenship, because we will give away our Birthright to the Mexican Hordes. Not a Smart Move. But Ten Million Instant Democrats.
Soon this country will become not a third world country, but a ghetto!!! I grew up in the ghetto of Chicago and what I read here is so like the crap the folks spew in da hood who eagerly await for their check and get together to go and get their hand outs. What is so sad about them is that though they are being provided the necessities and do whatever to get the "extra" stuff, they are just so oblivious to everything outside of their neighborhood or 3-4 block radius. They are unable to appreciate not only the larger city or the state or the country or heaven forbid the world, but only concentrate on how they can outslick whomever is providing a paltry service to them. I think one needs to live it and try and help people with this mentality to truly appreciate the waste and just how pathetic they are. I will never forget the woman declaring that she and her friends got dem an Obama phone. She is one example of the people I am referring to. But have no fear, the ghetto mentality is coming to your neighborhood and soon!!!
Improved feeling about the direction of the country and the economy? You have got to be kidding!! The direction of the country and the economy are still headed in the wrong way. How in the world can this be nothing has changed since the election. Come back after the first of the year because we are going to see changes and big changes as Obama-Care starts taking food out of the mouth of the people in hits country. Obama-Care Taxes are to start at the end of this year plus the temporary break in payroll taxes will go back to where they were. So you people don't talk about changes until after the New Year because nothing has changed yet.
Talk about some facts, Obama by no means won mandate. He barely won the popular vote.
States carried Obama - 26 + DC, Romney - 24 : 3 state margin
Popular vote Obama - 65,082,030, Romney - 60,565,840 : LESS THAN A FIVE MILLION VOTE DIFFERENCE
Percentage - Obama - 50.9%, Romney - 47.4%
Half the people did not buy what he is selling and do no want his horrible change. Period.
Count on four more years of a stagnet economy and another bail-out of GM.
Obama wants to give other people's money to those who did not earn it, and do not desrve it.
Companies will continue to go off shore escaping the highest corporate tax on the planet, The Roman Legion EPA, Unions, and above all Obamacare.
Our only hope is for congress to fight him all the way, because he has no interest in compromise for the good of the country, inasuch, as imposing his on ideals just like Hitler and Stalin
He won the popular vote by a larger margin than did GW Bush in either of his victories...oh yeah, GW didn't win the popular vote the first time.
In spite of that fact Republicans went on and on about mandates and "political capital." They created the concept of the "Unitary Executive" and even implied (in some cases stated outright) that anyone who disagreed with the President could be committing treason. Were they wrong to do so?
Remember, your answer has significance because PRESIDENT OBAMA WON AN ELECTORAL LANDSLIDE AND THE POPULAR VOTE BY A LARGER MARGIN THAN GEORGE W BUSH.
Wrong.
In 2004 Bush Carried 31 STATES, Kerry 19 states +DC: Bush won by a 11 state margin
In 2000 Bush Carried 30 STATES, Gore 20 States +DC: Bush won by a 9 state margin
In 2008 Obama carried 28+DC, McCain 22 States: Obama won by a 7 state margin
In 2012 Obama carried 26+DC, Romney 24 states: Obama won by a 3 state margin!
THIS ELECTION WAS FAR CLOSER NUMBSKULL! Get it!
Read the 2700 pages, it is full of hidden taxes. is an abbreviated list of taxes on families and businesses introduced by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA), known as Obamacare, totalling more than $500 billion over the next ten years as prepared by the Americans for Tax Reform:
Excise taxes on charitable hospitals ($50,000 per hospital if they do not meet HHS criteria of "community health assessment needs," billing and collection," and "financial assistance" (PPACA, 2010, pp. 1,961-1,971)
Codify "economic substance doctrine" (IRS will not allow any legal deductions or tax-minimizing plans because it lacks "substance" and is intended to reduce taxes owed); this is a tax increase of $4.5 billion (Bill Reconciliation Act, 2010, pp. 108-113)
"Black liquor" tax on a special bio-fuel (Bill Reconciliation Act, 2010, p. 105)
Tax on innovating drug companies (PPACA, 2010, p. 1,971-1,980)
Blue Cross/Blue Shield Tax Increase (PPACA, 2010, p. 2,004)
Ten percent tax on indoor tanning (PPACA, 2010, pp. 2,397-2,399)
Medicine cabinet tax disallows Americans to use health savings accounts, flexible spending accounts, or health reimbursement pre-tax money to buy over the counter medicines except insulin (PPACA, 2011, pp. 1,957-1,959)
HSA Withdrawal tax hike from 10 to 20 percent (PPACA, 2011, p. 1,959)
Employer reporting of insurance on W-2 forms, taxing health benefits on individual tax returns (PPACA, 2012, p. 1,957)
Surtax on investment income for families that make at least $250,000 or $200,00 single (Bill Reconciliation Act, 2013, pp. 87-93)
Medicare payroll tax increase (PPACA, Reconciliation Act, 2013, pp. 2,000-2,003, pp. 87-93)
A 2.3 percent excise tax on medical device manufacturers (PPACA, 2013, pp. 1,980-1,986)
Medical expenses can be itemized if they exceed 10 percent, no longer the previous 7.5 percent, resulting in fewer people being able to itemize (PPACA, 2013, pp. 1,994-1,995)
Flexible spending account cap of $2,500 which is now unlimited (PPACA, 2013, pp. 2,388-2,389)
Eliminate tax deductions for employer-provided retirement prescription drug coverage in coordination with Medicare Part D (PPACA, 2013, p. 1,994)
Limit of $500,000 annual executive compensation for health insurance executives (PPACA, 2013, pp. 1,995-2,000)
Individual mandate excise tax starting in 2014 if a person does not buy a "qualifying" health insurance, 1 percent in 2014, 2 percent in 2015, 2.5 percent in 2016; exempted are hardship cases as determined by HHS, religious objectors, undocumented immigrants, prisoners, those earning less than the poverty line, members of Indian tribes (PPACA, 2014, pp. 317-337)
Employer mandated tax, non-deductible of $2,000 per employee if the employer does not offer health coverage and at least one employee qualifies for a health tax credit; if an employee receives coverage through the government exchange, the employer penalty for that employee increases to $3,000 (PPACA, 2014, pp. 345-346)
Tax on health insurers based on premiums collected per year (PPACA, 2014, pp. 1,986-1,993 (this all but forces employers to stop offering insurance, forcing their employees onto the government exchanges)
40 percent excise tax on comprehensive health insurance plans or "Cadillac plans" (PPACA, 2018, pp. 1,941-1,956)
WOW such wonderful hate - and just think we are all Americans. The election is over- yes.
But the economy and our world power are in the hopper. I did not vote for Obama because I could not see where he could possibly get enough revenue to cover the Obama care. And in reading the Obama care - It is privacy invasive. It will keep small business from growing, It will destroy the family farms. It puts fees and taxes on middle class. and it encourages poor, illegals, those not doing well, not to get insurance and not to get jobs. NOW before you spew hate - I said encourages by how it is written. My belief is it promotes a welfare state which we cannot afford. And destroys initiative. Looking towards the future we must we careful that millions don't get used to living off the gov't. That is something that is almost impossible to fix.
Many social programs should be shook up and re organized to efficiently help those who deserve it. What has the gov't run that really is efficient? Medicare and Medicade have both been hit by millions in fraud. How many billions have we been bilked out of because the gov't can't run any program efficiently?
So just because you may think Obama is the next coming take time to read and analyize the Obama care and some of the other ideas that seem to get passed before we know it.
I think as long as congress is gridlocked, the country will be just as it is now. If one party came up with an idea that would really help, the other party would fight it tooth and nail just because it was brought up by the other party. It's sad but I think politicians care more for the interests of PACs etc, than the people who put them in office.
The prez's win had nothing to do with the country or how it was doing, mainly because it was doing lousy. It had to do with all of the minorities voting for him thinking they were getting something in return. How pathetic. The dems on these posts even brag how the prez won the woman's vote, the Hispanic vote and the black votes. Woman why are you so against repubs let's take a look. You claim they are against abortion. Well I haven't seen the dems do anything to change that position and please tell me how many of you are planning to have an abortion soon???? Is that really enough to swing your vote. Or there is the other thing equal pay for equal work--good luck with that when no one is employed. These are very stupid reasons to back a party that is going to ruin our country and some of you may deny the claims but deep down you know it is true and how stupid a move you have made. And Hispanics who think their vote for odumbo is going to benefit them. What did he promise immigration reform and amnesty??????? Why should that matter to you? If you voted you are already a citizen and by odumbo allowing more immigrants in to take the jobs you now have how is that helping YOU??????? Another stupid vote lost. Majority of blacks just voted because odumbo is black. Deny if you want but it is true. You thought if the rich white guy got in you would lose all your progress you have made so far. Please look back and tell me how a repub has damaged your climb to success lately. If anyone has hurt your rise to success and independance IT IS the dumbocraps because they have made you dependant on a government that soon will be broke as will you. So yes dems revel now on how your party defeated the big bad white rich guy-because you see it really wasn't about dems or repubs--and let me know how you are doing next summer when everything will start to really crumble.