Expanding on our election autopsy report in First Thoughts this morning about the white vote, since 1976, Democrats have never won white voters. Jimmy Carter, a Southerner, came the closest in 1976, winning 48% of it.
Since then, Democrats have ranged from 34% (Walter Mondale in 1984) to 44% (Bill Clinton in 1996).
Obama, in his first election, won 43% of the white vote, the second-highest number for a Democrat since Carter. His 39% in 2012 puts him further down the list of Democrats in the last 10 elections, but only slightly below the average 40.6% share for Democrats through the years.
But more significant: the white vote has become less important. The percentage whites make up of the electorate has steadily declined, from a high of 89% in 1976 to a low of 72% in 2012.
WHITE VOTE IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
2012: 72% of electorate, Romney 59, Obama 39
2008: 74% of electorate, McCain 55, Obama 43
2004: 77% of electorate, Bush 58, Kerry 41
2000: 81% of electorate, Bush 55, Gore 42
1996: 83% of electorate, Dole 46, Clinton 44 (Perot 9)
1992: 87% of electorate, Bush 41, Clinton 39 (Perot 21)
1988: 85% of electorate, Bush 60, Dukakis 40
1984: 86% of electorate, Reagan 66, Mondale 34
1980: 88% of electorate, Reagan 56, Carter 36 (Anderson 8)
1976: 89% of electorate, Ford 52, Carter 48
AVERAGE DEMOCRATIC WHITE VOTE SHARE: 40.6%
TOP DEMOCRATIC WHITE-VOTE GETTERS IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
1. Carter (1976) - 48%
2. Clinton (1996) - 44
3. Obama (2008) - 43
4. Gore - 42
5. Kerry - 41
6. Dukakis - 40
7. Clinton(1992) – 39
7. Obama (2012) – 39
9. Carter (1980) – 36
10. Mondale – 34
SOURCE: Exit polls/Roper Center, University of Connecticut