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It’s been a cliché in politics for the past decade to say that the I-4 Corridor in Florida is a swing area.
“Watch independents in the I-4,” has been a standard refrain from pundits as well as Democrats and Republicans alike, referring to voters along the interstate highway that cuts a swath West to East, from Tampa to North of Orlando.
But it looks like that just does not hold true anymore. Despite what was a tougher year than 2008 for President Obama, he once again ran up the score in the I-4.
The I-4 has changed quite a bit in 20 years. In fact, based on a First Read analysis of the six counties the highway passes through – Hillsborough, Polk, Osceola, Orange, Seminole, and Volusia – the I-4 Corridor has gone from about a 100,000-vote advantage for Republicans to a 100,000-vote advantage for Democrats.
CLICK HERE FOR THE I-4 CORRIDOR COUNTY MARGINS, 1992-2012, TABLE
Even in 2010, a year heavily tilted to Republicans, the losing Democratic gubernatorial candidate Alex Sink, won the I-4 counties by 15,000 votes.
And it’s all about demographics. In the three counties that have become more Democratic, non-white populations have doubled in a decade.
The place most responsible for the shift is Orange County, which encompasses Orlando. Republicans had a 26,000-vote advantage in the 1992 presidential race and 1,000 in 1996. But Democrats won it by 6,000 in 2000, 1,000 in 2004, and 85,000 and 84,000, respectively, in 2008 and 2012.
What's more, it's shifted even in governor’s races. In 1994 when Democrat Lawton Chiles defeated Jeb Bush, Orange went for Bush by 7,000 votes. In 1998, it was a 38,000-vote GOP advantage. It was 20,000 in 2002 and 2006, but, in 2010, Democrat Sink won it by 30,000.
Hillsborough and Osceola have also moved Democratic. Polk has remained Republican, while Volusia is the only county to trend Republican.
What explains this? Orange is now 55 percent non-white, including 28 percent Hispanic, 22 percent black and 5 percent Asian -- all groups that went overwhelmingly for Obama. In fact, according to the U.S. Census, as of 2010, the Hispanic, black and Asian populations have nearly doubled since a decade ago. There were 242,000 more Latinos (140,000), African Americans (75,000), and Asians (27,000) from 2000. At the same time, there were only 114,000 more whites - a net change of 128,000 non-whites.
Hillsborough is 48 percent non-white (25 percent Latino, 18 percent black, 4 percent Asian). The Latino population increased 70 percent from 2000 to 2010; the black population is up 37 percent; and the Asian population doubled.
Osceola is 65 percent non-white (46 percent Latino, 13 percent black, 3 percent Asian). It's the same demographic story here. The Latino, black, and Asian populations all doubled.
Volusia, on the other hand, is just 25 percent non-white. Polk is 35 percent non-white, and Seminole is 36 percent non-white. Minority growth in these counties was slower than Orange, Hillsborough, and Osceola.
For more on the impact of Hispanics in Florida, NBC Latino has more:
Puerto Ricans turned Florida blue.
Romney-Obama campaigns zero in on Florida Latino voters
Florida's growing Puerto Rican population: Could they tip the election?
Leave a Comment:
The Fat Cats spent so much to get rid of the President. They pushed the cash, voter suppression and dirty tricks. However, in the end they lost, and the people won.
Never knew that Fat Cat George Soros was trying to "get rid of the President", that is news to us all.
Re: vote count in FL.
Only so many fingers and toes. Hang on, folks.
Don't forget that governor Rick Scott killed a 4 billion high speed rail project that was to run literally right down the middle of interstate 4. To top it off the project was fully funded with most of the funding coming from the feds and the remainder from private companies. The project was expected to create 100,000 jobs.
Ugh, I'm so sick of Democrats this and Republicans that. Get rid of the parties, for god's sake and make candidates run on their own merits. Instead of 2 party primaries, have one primary which whittles the field down to 2 candidates.
It's absolutely stupid to vote for someone because they're a member of a political party, and yet the vast majority of voters do it, leaving the fate of the nation in the hands of about 5% of voters.
I agree with the Republicans on fiscal policy, but completely disagree on their bedroom legislation.
I agree with the Democrats on their inclusive policies and distrust of big business, but completely disagree big government is the way to run things.
Neither party lets me have my cake and eat it too. So instead, I voted for myself as grand dictator. Unfortunately, I lost.
How many of you here are hardcore partisans who'd vote for your party no matter what? I work with people from both sides of the fence and they'd probably vote for Fidel Castro or Silvio Berlusconi so long as he was the candidate for their party.
I think the US would be better served by dumping the 2-party lock on this nation and make everyone vote for a candidate on the merits, not whether they're a member of the "team".
The great growth in the Hispanic population is due more to LEGAL immigration policies than otherwise. My question is: Why doesn't the media investigate why we FAVOR, to a near racist extent, allowing relatively poorly educated Hispanics into America while shutting the doors on well educated Asians, Whites, etc?
For example, I know a family that escaped a communist country -they were being hunted down for being anti-communist. The father is a psychologist, the mother a nurse, the elder son an electrical engineer, the daughter a school teacher, the younger son a college student majoring in business administration. They couldn't get into America - but Canada took them in a flash.
Meanwhile, we take virtual illiterates - as long as they're Hispanic - in large numbers. Why? Is it because big-business needs to drive the price of labor down so the GOP has no real problem with it? Or is it because the Democrats know they'll get most of the voters?
I'm confused about Florida. Why can the rest of the country complete their voting counts within 24 hours, but from what I see FL still hasn't completed theirs 48 hours later.
That is happening because is trying to rig the votes in favor of Obama. What else is new there? I am sure that also happened in some of the swing states. I would never put that pass Axelrod. Greasy looking and shifty looking Axelrod. They will do anything to win.....the Chicago style politics. We have really lowered our standards on who we chose for our president!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
No excuse.
Its an embarassment. The Supervisor in Miami Dade needs to be fired. There needs to be some kind of audit/review at a State level. If 49 States can get this done in hours, then something is totally wrong. Her exucse that "there were a lot of ballots" is pathetic.
I betcha the Supervisor of Elections has no real experience. She probably is the sister/cousin/daughter of some elected official who gave her the job . Reminds me of G.W with "Great Job Brownie"
O.K. teabaggers. You got Citizens United, vote I.D., shortened early voting and ballot shortages. What's next? How about early voting for registered Republicans only. Why are the tea baggers intent on turning the U.S. into a third world country.
I am reading these from ignorant democrats. I want to see if 1 year after the election you will be saying the same things when you have lost either your home or your job. These same minorities might be the same ones to take your job because they will accept lower pay. I want to see if you will be laughing then. You democrats are so ignorant you really do not understand what is going on here. Obama will not be able to get the jobs going because he does not know how or what to do. So suffer some more and the same minorities will be working while you will be waiting for your government check. We republicans will be laughing at you at this time. Lol....cannot wait to see that happen to you dems!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I wonder who will you blame at that time? Obama the failed president and re-elected by his ignorant supporters!!!!!! At least we republicans know how to budget but you democrats like to spend so we will see who will be better off!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Why elections have consequences Here is what likely to happen:
1) Obamacare: the people have had the gravy part of the bill in 2011, and 2012. The taxes will begin to kick in (2013 and 2014), and the negative impact to growth and employment will begin in 2013.
2) Obamacare: the people will begin to lose their healthcare as they are pushed from their corporate plans into the government program (2014)
3) EPA: CAP and trade will be implemented through back door regulations, already scheduled to begin in 2013. These regulations will drive additional off shoring and an increase in unemployment
4) The budget deficit: will grow to over $20 Trillion, Obamas predictions, a minimum of over $18.5 Trillion in 2013. Doing the math this is over$110,000 in debt for every person currently working in the United States.
Additionally, the deficit increase means that inflation will continue to increase and access to capital for business growth will continue to be limited. Bottom line, limited growth, substandard employment for the foreseeable future
5) Immigration: we will now open our borders and pay for illegal immigrants, social security, health care, education, food stamps, whatever it takes. All while borrowing money from China. Increasing debt which limits growth and enforces substandard employment
6) Defense: Part of the fiscal cliff is a massive $1Trillion cut to defense spending which will leave the U.S. weak in the face of: Increasing terrorism, increased tension in Korea, Increased tension with China, increased tension with Iran and and and. When we are weak global policy is set by our enemies.
7) Iran will continue its march towards nuclear weapons. Isreal will defend itself and the U.S. may be dragged into a conflict with a substandard military (our soldiers at risk)
And the potential worst case scenario: If the U.S. does not decrease the deficit, other countries may demand that we pay for goods and services with their local currency. That means:
Gas $8.00 - $10.00 per gallon
Inflation due to payment on the debt over 7%, everything people buy will continue to cost more at an accelerated rate
Retirement wealth will decrease due to a collapse of the U.S. stock market. Plan on working until death.
The decrease in personal wealth will throw the U.S. into a recession that will make the great depression look like a cake walk
The bright side:
When the collapse begins it impacts everyone from the top to the bottom. Once it impacts the people actually paying the bill they will go hungry. Nice job America.
It is doubtful the GOP will ever win another presidency without changing its ways, and I don't mean becoming more conservative. The demographic s are working against the GOP over time. Stay in denial make excuses all you want, time is on the side of the Democratic party, and the GOP can prolong their core problem.
The same with the US Senate, the GOP in this form will never get a majority again. 20 women out of 100 in the Senate is a number that will only increase over the decades. Knowing this, Harry Read can blow out the old rules to limit obstruction now.
Why elections have consequences Here is what likely to happen:
1) Obamacare: the people have had the gravy part of the bill in 2011, and 2012. The taxes will begin to kick in (2013 and 2014), and the negative impact to growth and employment will begin in 2013.
2) Obamacare: the people will begin to lose their healthcare as they are pushed from their corporate plans into the government program (2014)
3) EPA: CAP and trade will be implemented through back door regulations, already scheduled to begin in 2013. These regulations will drive additional off shoring and an increase in unemployment
4) The budget deficit: will grow to over $20 Trillion, Obamas predictions, a minimum of over $18.5 Trillion in 2013. Doing the math this is over$110,000 in debt for every person currently working in the United States.
Additionally, the deficit increase means that inflation will continue to increase and access to capital for business growth will continue to be limited. Bottom line, limited growth, substandard employment for the foreseeable future
5) Immigration: we will now open our borders and pay for illegal immigrants, social security, health care, education, food stamps, whatever it takes. All while borrowing money from China. Increasing debt which limits growth and enforces substandard employment
6) Defense: Part of the fiscal cliff is a massive $1Trillion cut to defense spending which will leave the U.S. weak in the face of: Increasing terrorism, increased tension in Korea, Increased tension with China, increased tension with Iran and and and. When we are weak global policy is set by our enemies.
7) Iran will continue its march towards nuclear weapons. Isreal will defend itself and the U.S. may be dragged into a conflict with a substandard military (our soldiers at risk)
And the potential worst case scenario: If the U.S. does not decrease the deficit, other countries may demand that we pay for goods and services with their local currency. That means:
Gas $8.00 - $10.00 per gallon
Inflation due to payment on the debt over 7%, everything people buy will continue to cost more at an accelerated rate
Retirement wealth will decrease due to a collapse of the U.S. stock market. Plan on working until death.
The decrease in personal wealth will throw the U.S. into a recession that will make the great depression look like a cake walk
The bright side:
When the collapse begins it impacts everyone from the top to the bottom. Once it impacts the people actually paying the bill they will go hungry. Nice job America.
Sorry for the delayed reply kemu. Unfortunately, what you and I see as the dire consequences of the re-election, Demoncrats have always understood them as signposts on the road to the ultimate goal of bringing America to her knees to join the "family" of nations.
Demoncrats have never evolved beyond plantation mentality. "Forward" only translates into having a minority in the big house and working Americans working for less and less, or come stand in line for a free meal.
Sadly, the many hard-working, civic minded minority supporters who were duped into thinking that the Demoncrats would be looking out for them because a minority was in the White House will need to do some introspection and analysis. If they don't, they will again be victims of a lie when the Demoncrats say, "if weren't for those Republicans we could have really enacted policies that would help you, that's why your take home check gets smaller and smaller".
@kemu -
Sounds like the sky is falling.
We survived 8 years of G.W. Bush.. hang in there bud, you'll be OK
The Drug Lords and Human Traffickers in Mexico are so happy, they need more of those hand outs from Fast & Furious to kill more innocent Mexicans with and couple form Border Agents. Congress please ensure there is NO Fast & Furious during round 2 of Barry Soetoro, we need no more innocent Mexicans nor Innocent Americans killed near our sourthern border. Why Holder is not in prison by now is a travesty of justice.
Welcome to the new era my righty friends. Come join us instead of following old politicians that are living in the 1920's. This is the new America, freedom for all. We have came along ways since females were seen as trash and was not allowed to vote for a President. We welcome all into our restaurants and don't block out many and only allow a few to enter. This is your new America friends, we're not looking back, we're moving forward. Hop on our train, you all are welcomed to join us.
NAH vote for me and its free surely worked, whats going to happen when the bill comes due??
Congrats Oblamobots you won. But can you tell me when unemployment continues to climb especially from the military cuts coming and the deficit is 22 Trillion by 2016, Who are you going to blame? I surely hope it will be the previous president. BTW in 2016 the deficit will be more than half totally Oblamos. Greece here we come, avoid the rush buy ammo now.
you mean Minorities, Look at the map, Orlando, Miami, Panama beach area, Tampa, Your looking at tourist areas, Populated heavy by low income folks. That vote. Pretty simple math to me
Wait until April when the Oblamobots get the bill for everything. See how much they love him then.
Is it so much demographics as it is human nature? People will always vote for the side offering free stuff. Hard to compete with that. Other peoples stuff or personal responsibility, tough call for half the population.
con <-- and let me stop right there....is that why little George won in 2000, and 2004?
Anyone with a functioning brain can see that the GOP can't win much of anything by trying to continually con the primates that are left in the USA - even with FOX NEWS. Even primates evolve.
Let's see how many seats in the House of Representatives the Republicans can piss away in 2014.
So somehow the liberals think that their taking over of the majority of the electoral votes is a good thing for the country. OK, let's have a look at the newest Democrat/liberal constituency- the left has the blacks, the latinos, the single women and the young vote. Nice. The common element in all of these- none is considered a large contributor to the federal income tax revenue nor a reliable group of job creators.
But hey- feel free to pat yourselves on the back for your victories, then get to work figuring out how you're going to pay for all the promises obama made because we the taxpayers will do whatever it takes to keep you out of our wallets. We're not paying for the promises someone else made.
Oh, and in addition- the current Democrat constituency is also composed of all the groups who have been found to be the most reliant on Social Security or planning to be completely dependent on it for their retirements while 80% the married constituency have made other plans.
FastZ....you're serious...huh? :)
You mean the 47% ?
I know many have seen this but for those who haven't, it bares repeating:
Alexander Fraser Tyler, Cycle Of Democracy (1770)
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves largesse from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most benefits the public treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over lousy fiscal policy, always followed by a dictatorship.
The average of the world’s great civilizations before they decline has been 200 years. These nations have progressed in this sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; from faith to great courage; from courage to liberty; from liberty to abundance; from abundance to selfishness; from selfishness to complacency; from complacency to apathy; from apathy to dependency; from dependency back again to bondage."
Here's President Lincoln speech in Illinois:
The money powers prev upon the nation in time of peace and conspires against it in times of adversity.
Corporations have been entroned and an era of corruption in high places will follow, and the money powers will endeaver to prolong it's reign by working upon the prejudices of the American people until the wealth is aggregated in the hands of a few, and America will be destroyed.
Thank you President Lincoln on guiding us voters, we have defeated these muli-billionaires that wants to own America.
To all you non-white, liberal, Hispanic, black, what ever minorities who are gloating now---just wait until you are in the minority-- when the Muslims and Islamic radicals control the election outcome. It won't be so much fun then and it is not that far fetched.
It's not the point of being a minority. The point is the sense of entitlement which knows no bounds. Just as many whites have the same sense of entitlement.
Don't forget women. Don't you consider them a minority?
I think it is astounding that no one has observed that Obama acheived a narrow popular vote victory notwithstanding overwhelming minority support. Are the demoncrats destined to only nominate minority candidates for President or risk losing minority percentages and voter turnout.
So......if they don't play the race card; the default has to be the gender card. It is clear that the party has nothing but losing ideas that require a race or gender gimmick to get votes.
In the past, the demoncrats abandoned working people, now they have abandoned white people. This is the second black demoncrat president (Clinton being the first). Since Obama's 2008 election proved that experience doesn't matter, I think Demoncrat eyes are glazing over and dreams forming about future President Tammy Baldwin - but being white may be a disqualifier.
YOU LOST! Get over it!
The election was a continuation of the third debate. Apparently I-4 helped sink Romney's battleship!
The best part of the election of 2012, aside from the reelection of President Obama, is that ALL THAT MONEY from the Right pretty much went for nought, I love it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Sam Adelson, Karl Rove, Koch Brothers, suck on that for the next 4 years!!! The American public had tons more common sense and decency and intelligence than given credit for by these jokes who thought they could buy the election. Amen.
Florida is turning more blue also in part do to retirees like myself who left stong blue states, CT in my case, and now live in FL but keep their political affiliations. As for Puerto Rico, having lived there in the past, I can affirm that living there is just like living on the mainland except the climate is better. The malls, yes malls, have the same stores and many residents are bilingual just as they are in Rick Perry's Texas. And to remind Romney supporters, Mitt said should residents of Puerto Rico express a desire to become a state that he would support that choice. Fifty-one stars isn't a big thing and would certainly be good for flag manufacturers, or did we export that industry to China also.
Yes. American flags are made in China. An American flag manufacturer (Obama contributor) received a government grant, but only if he employed undocumented workers. The business failed after the owner pocketed the taxpayer grant money, because Obama issued an executive order making imported flags duty-free.
First, the I-4 corridor was directly attributed to the 2008 Obama win in Florida so to say it hasn't mattered for the last ten years is "malarkey"! CNN announced it was crutial to the 2008 Obama win. Also, I hope the news media continues to emphasize that fact that 2 days after the election, we STILL do NOT know who won here officially, and what a farce this system is! Governor Scott is a joke and his attempt to supress votes came back and bit him in the ass!
I'm just thankful I have a recession proof 6-figure job. All of you middle class idiots who voted for Obama will get what you asked for. Obama will run amuk in the next 4 years. We will have well over $20 Trillion in new debt, a healthcare law that will SUBSTANTIALLY increase taxes on the middle class, and depressed hiring because employers are afraid to hire. I hope unemployment hits 10% while all the blacks, latinos, and kool aid drinkers are collecting food stamps.
F the USA for being so blind and stupid to re-elect Obama because of his skin color. I'm praying for a deep depression!
Don't think you are secure. The O'b brown shirts know where you live. Demoncrat support of the "occupiers" was only a preview of what is to come. Unless you have a government job, they will come after you and bring you down.