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Kevin Lamarque / Reuters
Campaigning with Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, voting and election results.
Obama’s demographic edge… And the GOP’s demographic dilemma… Breaking down last night’s results… Do status-quo election results = status-quo governing?... Obama’s swing-county swagger…His tactical dominance… And lots of history was made last night.
*** Obama's demographic edge: Yes, the auto bailout mattered in Ohio. Sure, Hurricane Sandy helped the president. And, yes, the economy was the No. 1 issue. But make no mistake: What happened last night was a demographic time bomb that had been ticking and that blew up in GOP faces. As the Obama campaign had assumed more than a year ago, the white portion of the electorate dropped to 72%, and the president won just 39% of that vote. But he carried a whopping 93% of black voters (representing 13% of the electorate), 71% of Latinos (representing 10%), and also 73% of Asians (3%). What’s more, despite all the predictions that youth turnout would be down, voters 18-29 made up 19% of last night’s voting population -- up from 18% four years ago -- and President Obama took 60% from that group. The trend also played out in the key battleground states: The president won about 70% of the Latino vote in Colorado and Nevada, and he won 60% of it in Florida (a high number given the state’s large GOP-leaning Cuban-American population). On Monday, we wrote that demography could determine destiny. And that’s exactly what happened. While the campaign’s turnout operation deserves all the credit for getting these voters to the polls, the most significant event of this presidential contest might very well have been the 2010 census.
*** And the GOP’s demographic dilemma: Obama’s demographic edge creates this dilemma for the Republican Party: It can no longer rely on white voters to win national elections anymore, especially in presidential cycles. Indeed, according to the exit poll, 89% of all votes Mitt Romney won last night came from whites (compared with 56% for Obama). So the Republicans are maximizing their share with white voters; they just aren’t getting the rest. And come 2016, the white portion of the electorate will probably drop another couple of points to 70%. Politico’s Martin puts it this way: “Battling a wheezing economy and a deeply motivated opposition, Obama still managed to retain much of his 2008 map because of the GOP’s deficiencies with the voters who are changing the political face of once conservative-leaning Virginia, Florida, Colorado and Nevada. Republicans face a crisis: the country is growing less white and their coalition has become more white in recent years. In 2004, George W. Bush won [about 40 percent] of Hispanics. Four years later, John McCain, the author of an immigration reform bill, took 31 percent of Hispanics. And this year, Romney captured only 27 percent of Hispanics.”
NBC's Chuck Todd discusses how Florida may be used as a model for the rest of the country to show how changes in demographics, particularly an influx of Hispanic voters in key counties, affected the outcome of the election.
*** Hard for the GOP just to turn to the Midwest: Now Republicans might argue, “Look, we can win back the Midwest -- Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin.” Yet those account for 34 electoral votes. But the Sun Belt states where Obama campaigned and which have more diverse populations (Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia) have a total of 57 electoral votes. And then there are Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. Do those states come into play in 2016? What about 2020? Come 2016, you could argue that Arizona and Georgia become for Democrats what Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania are for Republicans -- just slightly out of reach.
*** Last night’s results: The morning after, here are the results (so far) from last night: Obama holds 303 electoral votes and Romney 206. (NBC News has yet to call Florida and its 29 electoral votes, but Obama leads there 50%-49%.) In the popular vote, it’s Obama 50%, Romney 48%. Also, Democrats have held on to their Senate majority and might add to it -- with undecided races in Montana (where Democratic incumbent Jon Tester leads 48%-48% with 77% in) and North Dakota (where Democrat Heidi Heitkamp is ahead by about 3,000 voters with 93% in). But Republicans held on to control of the House, holding 237 seats vs. 197 for the Democrats, plus-minus four seats.
President Obama and former governor Mitt Romney both spent billions of dollars and logged thousands of miles on the campaign trail, and it all culminated in one very dramatic election night. Take a look back at the long road that led to the Presidential election.
*** Does status-quo control = status-quo governing? So in the end, we got a status-quo result -- with Obama holding on to the White House, Democrats keeping control of the Senate, and Republicans maintaining their grip on the House. But here’s the question with the “fiscal cliff” negotiations coming up: Will the governing be status quo, too? Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell released this statement last night: “To the extent [Obama] wants to move to the political center, which is where the work gets done in a divided government, we’ll be there to meet him half way. That begins by proposing a way for both parties to work together in avoiding the ‘fiscal cliff’ without harming a weak and fragile economy, and when that is behind us work with us to reform the tax code and our broken entitlement system.” And House Speaker John Boehner makes a statement on the “fiscal cliff” negotiations at 3:30 pm ET. But who holds the mandate here? The GOP? Or a president who waged a national campaign on raising taxes for the wealthy, and who won? And here’s another question: Do Boehner and McConnell take advantage of the lame duck to compromise?
*** Obama’s swing-county swagger: Turning back to last night’s presidential contest, Obama beat Romney in almost all of the swing counties (won by Bush in ’04 but by Obama in ’08). Indeed, Obama won three of four swing counties in Florida (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Osceola), four of six in Ohio (Hamilton, Wood, Ottawa, Sandusky), 11 of 14 in Virginia (including Loudon, Prince William, and Henrico), and all six in Colorado (including Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Larimer). And despite losing North Carolina, Obama may have proved that the state is changing, becoming more “Mid-Atlantic” but not quite all there, as Charlie Cook has said. Obama won nine of 13 swing counties in the Tar Heel State (including the large counties of Wake, Forsyth, Cumberland, and Buncombe).
*** And his tactical dominance: But it was more than winning the swing counties for Obama; it was tactical dominance. Romney made inroads all across the country from previous GOP performance. What happened, however, was that the Obama campaign exploited the census and changed the margins. The best example of this was in Florida.
*** Making history: Finally, it was an historic-making election. With Obama’s re-election, we now have the first time since Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe that Americans have elected three two-term presidents in a row… Tammy Baldwin will become the Senate’s first openly gay member… The Senate will have at least 19 female members -- the most ever -- and there’s a chance that number could increase to 20 if Heitkamp wins… Maryland and Maine became the first states to approve of gay marriage at the ballot box… And initiatives to legalize marijuana passed in Colorado and Washington state.
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The hyperbole about the Republicans is incredible. Although I would love it if the Republicans panicked and moved to the center-right, I am not optimistic.
I would like to walk into the voting booth in 2016 and choose between Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, or Andrew Cuomo and Chris Christie, George Pataki, or David Petraeus. No matter who won, it wouldn't seem too bad. Unfortunately, I doubt that I will get this kind of choice.
They only lost by 2 percent nationwide and several of the decisive battleground states were very close. They did this with a candidate they were not exactly in love with and who had serious weaknesses. To me this looked like a mirror image of the Democrat's loss in 2004 with John Kerry.
What the Republicans really have to do is decide how far right is too far. Until now, as long as a candidate was to the right of someone like Richard Lugar or Lamar Alexander, they were just fine with the GOP. There has to be a limit on how far right one can go before they are really part of the lunatic fringe. Once they figure out that Sharon Angle, Christine O'Donnell, Richard Mourdock, Todd Akin, Allen West, etc. are too far out, the GOP will be back as a real force to be reckoned with. I'm guessing they will be very competitive in 2016.
I wish they would over-react and move to the center-right, but I think it is unlikely.
BECK/COULTER 2016!!
Radical- I hope as you do that the Republicans continue moving to the right. Keep telling yourself its not the message its the messenger
How Obama won four more years-- by lying like he did in the first election. Now give me my hand-outs!
LOSER
isnt it wonderful watching the republiCONS delve so deep into the causes of their loss.
It had nothing to do with them, the fault lies with us
Republicans are twisted in the head. No morals but theyll tell ya they are christians. Just a bunch of hypocritical uninformed parrots. Follow the leader you morons.
Four more years! Four more years! Four more years! No handouts for you tea baggers! None! Zip! Zero! Then they need to pass a Teabagger Tax, and tax them another ten percent, and disallow all of their bogus "charitable contributions" and fraudulent "business expenses" for hookers and Asian sex junkets. We laugh at you. Laugh long and hard. Four years of laughing at you! I don't know if I can laugh that long, but I will sure try.
Four more years of trillion dollar deficits, class warfare and strangling regulations.
At least we kept the House to stop his crazy spending bills.
Cannon- yep thank god for gerrymandering or you would have lost the House also.
Maybe then you would have heard the voice of the people. You just lost the Presidency and the dems picked up Senate seats despite the expectation of them losing control of the Senate just a few months ago.
When will your side WAKE UP and smell the coffee.
The American public doesnt like what your selling
Why not point out that the deficit explosion was George Bushes doing?
Why not point out that class warfare is also a republican ploy?
Wake up
John Boehner is calling millionaires and billionaires small business. And you can't raise taxes on the job creators. That BS isn't going to work this time!!!
Boehner is trying to protect the millionaire supporters from losing thier precious Bush tax cuts. Thats all they care about. John Boehner looks the part doesnt he. whiskeyed up D head
Why do you want to raise their taxes?
Its about making them pay thier fair share that they havnt been paying because of the Bush tax cuts. Get it now?
Who woulda thunk it? The n!ggers, spics, kids and bitches, otherwise known as Obama's base, beat the sh!t out of 'ol Willard. What's worse, for Republicans, is that this odd coalition is getting bigger, while the Republican base of white racist and bigoted males can't possibly keep up.
It's kind of scary tho'. The lies and the slander and the fear mongering and the hundreds of millions of dollars didn't work, so it kind of makes you wonder what desperate measures the GOP will take in the future.
Actually Charlie even those polls were not very close. I thought that Romney would win the popular vote by about a point and Obama the electoral by a small but comfortable margin. That is pretty much what the polls said. They were all(almost all) wrong. Probably the worst prognostications since Reagan v Carter.
please read post497.7
As you can see from the posts in the last 20 pages or so, the Tea Partiers haven't learned anything from last night's defeat.
I'm sure they're still resting on the victories of 2010. They should realize that a victory like that will never come again. They should realize that soon, not right away for it will take time, the Republican Party will act to marginalize them and in time stand up and fight them. When that time comes it will be a great day for the Republican Party for the Tea Party will be sent packing.
They will at first contemplate forming their own party. They will. They will then be seen as the John Birch Party was seen years ago, which means their input will have very little sway in only small pockets of the country.
I imagine it will be Jeb Bush and Chris Christie who will lead this fight. It will take time, but it will happen. Why? Because if the Tea Party isn't kicked out of the Republican Party the party will never again win a presidential election.
2010? When the hell was that? That's how fast political time moves.
Well, I've had my fun poking rabid weasels with sharp sticks for the time being. Time for a nice, big celebratory drink. Maybe I'll crack that bottle of Louis Roederer Cristal gathering dust in my wine cellar. And perhaps then I will go out for dinner, and have a nice two pound lobster and some Petrossian caviar. Have fun with your beanie weenies, you rascals.
Lady Liberty speaks and shes not an old rich miserable caucasion guy.
Liberty - Liberal
Winners
Try to show some class.
Congratulations to the Obama administration on the victory. From this day forward, the economy, immigration, the Middle East and any other situations that have been blamed on the Bush administration are yours and yours alone. I want this country to move forward and prosper. I do not want to hear any more statements that someone else is to blame for any short comings. You received four years to learn the job and at this point, the outcome is horrible. Fromm this day forward, move this country forward and quit blaming everyone else. Bush is gone, history. You now bear all responsibility for your admistration.
Ha! will never happen... the takers will keep making more excuses and continue their assualt on the makers.
I hear Belize is nice. Maybe Australia...
Well said. But we know better, don't we?
Why don't you two losers go buy yourself some rope and then do something constructive with it??
TRUTH, by "takers" do you mean the uber rich like Willard himself that pays a third of the tax rate than you and I do??? Or are you referring to corporate American which receives huge handouts from Uncle Sam, even though they're off shoring jobs like the way Willard made his millions with. Funny thing about you Righties, giving those who have the most yet more is fine with you but feeding a kid that is going hungry you have a problem with you. You must be one of those "Compassionate Conservatives" huh buddy???
America is changing GOP......change with it or become Inconsequential
Head off then, TD, BUT....I hear Belize is just FULL of people that look just like our President
AND, TD, thats exactly who we stopped this election....TAKERS....like Romney and Ryan
SkyMoose
AND, TD, thats exactly who we stopped this election....TAKERS....like Romney and Ryan
Amazing... you are a chicken that just voted for Colonel Sanders. Ignorance is bliss, Sky... enjoy your inevitable misery.
Wall St. Didn't like the election results. Biggest loss in a year. Predictable.
Stocks slide amid dire warnings from Europe
Stocks accelerated their post-election sell off across the board Wednesday, triggered by worries over the looming "fiscal cliff" and as fears over Europe's economy reemerged.
“I don’t think there’s a long-term market reaction to the presidential election itself—it’s now how quickly we can focus on the ‘fiscal cliff’ and coming up with a resolution,” said Art Hogan, managing director of Lazard Capital Markets.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/stocks-slide-amid-dire-warnings-europe-1C6918818
BLAMO, yea, if this keeps up for the next 6 months, it will be almost as dramatic a crash as what your boy Dubya did to the Market, not to mention, the banks, lending institutions, auto industry as well as the off shoring of jobs.
And I gotta love the way cretins like you can't man up and admit you got whipped, bigtime. I didn't pull this lame crap when we took a drubbing in 2010 but then, I'm not a narrow minded, ignorant hater like so many on the Right tragically are.
So tell me bud, how's it fell to get your head handed to you??? Damn, but it's gotta hurt pretty bad. LOSER!!!
Ozzie, this isn't football smack talk time.
You just voted for a healthcare program that will put you in a crowded waiting room for HOURS and you still may not get seen. You will not get access like you have in the past. You might get told you won't get the higher-tech diagnostic study, not the treatment... b/c the 'reviewers' might tell you 'No...'.
But keep bragging... please send me a pic of your face when (not if) the day comes when you will not be allowed to care you've had before, due to your vote. I too was stupid and voted for Jimmy Carter one time....
What goes around comes around.
Blamo trying to understand what is going on with the stock market. Now that's funny.
I'm outt
gotta love the stock market crashing today......the very first gift of many associated with another 4 year term.....
Stings really bad to get a pasting like you did last night, huh??? Yea, it's gotta hurt real bad.
Here's a clue for you smart guy, "The Market" didn't much care for Dubya, now did it? Seeing as how it collapsed on his watch and under Obama it's doubled. Why don't you go and drown your sorrows in booze? And if that fails you can always cry in your beer. LOSER
Nothing like the crash in 2007 though. Thank goodness we are not going back to those days!
"House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, emerged in the aftermath of Tuesday’s presidential election to strike a conciliatory note, offering to work with President Barack Obama on a grand bargain to avert the impact of the coming fiscal cliff.
Boehner said that Republicans would be “willing to accept new revenue, under the right conditions."
http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/07/15001086-boehner-offers-tax-talks-but-outline-is-vague?lite
McConnell is the attack dog.
Has McConnell announced that that the republicans number one priority is preventing Obama from being a 3 term president yet?
The GOP has a real lesson to learn. Nominating 'Insane & Stupid' has cost them the Senate twice now. Will the GOP double down and nominate more idiots who think it's God's will that women get pregnant from a rape? Or how about the House Science Committee who republicans put in the hands of people who believe that Woman can't get pregnant from a rape? How about how the GOP made a moron who believes that people who believe in Evolution and people who believe that the planet is more than 6000 years old are going to hell, this guy was who the republicans put in charge of the House Science Committee.
Nominating Insane & Stupid has cost the republicans. No doubt about it. Do you think the rest of the Insane and Stupid republicans can learn from this? Or do you think they will continue to let Insane & Stupid radio talk show hosts tell them to nominate more Insane & Stupid candidates?
alan3008
Sour grapes
OICY - "Stupid Candidates" ?? Romney has 2 degrees from Harvard. Obama has one, uh Apparently ??
Romney has created Thousands of jobs. Obama has lost about 1 Million since 2008
Romney balanced the budget in Mass. Obama went from 9 Trillion to 16 Trillion in less than 4 years!
Romney doesnt smoke or do drugs Obama smokes and has smoked plenty of pot and cocaine even sold it!
Romney a menber of the Morman Faith Obama 20= years with Rev. Wright and referred to his "Muslim" Faith during an interview with Stephanopolous
Romney won the debate that mattered the most -The Economy
Why did Obama win? because they accept money from unions in return for more collective bargaining. They grant more benefits and entititlements to the masses so they don't have to work so hard. They have ABC, NBC, CBS, CNN, PMSNBC all on their side and free advertising. If it was a level playing field and none of the bribes using taxpayer money and then resorting to increasing taxes higher and higher on those that actually work, Romney would have won. 48% vs. 50% just eliminate 3% from those above, Romney wins! But no this country is destined to further corruption and bribes under the rule of Owebama and the Democrat Party really should be called the Scheister Party
What happened to your insane & stupid House Science Committee members like Akin? Go right ahead and double down on Insane & Stupid candidates. Make my day!
Hey, be nice to BRENT, his head exploded last night and now he's having a major league melt down.
Do me a favor Brent, take two aspirin and don't call me in the morning. LOL
36% of women voted for Todd Akin. More than one out of three. Amazing.
Why did Obama win ? I'l give you my reasons:
I generally believe in conservative principles but after the primaries and watching ads warn of impending socialism, business owner threatening their workers to vote for The GOP or else, Donald Trump, the way the GOP obfuscated and worked against the near term interest of Americans, the tea party types claiming the Bank bail out and Obama -care were Marxist. It just pushed me over the edge. O'Romney O'Ryan were probably acceptable to me but I will never again vote GOP. Well maybe some day.
Bottom line there is not enough people who will drink the teabagger koolaid anymore. Nationally we are not as far to the right as the GOP thinks. Not that the Libby cool aid is without some foul ingredients it's just not as crazy foul as the new teepotty GOP
Well said!
I also feel strongly both ways! What did you just say?
I agree!
you are spot on, as a Republican I feel the same way but
there are some good Republicans around and I never vote for the party but the person .... [I think it was Sir Winston Churchill who said he would put a good word in for the devil if he would join the cause against Hitler] .... don't care what party they belong to.
OICY - YOu are NO Clint Eastwood now go find your chair
I might as well be Clint Eastwood. I'm talking to someone as Stupid as an Empty Chair right now. Cry me a river, moron!
In other words...the people living off of the white people beat the white people. I sure wish there was a job out there for them. It would be nice to keep the money I make.
Seems anymore that the last thing you want in America is a job.
No, that just what you've been lead to believe. For every parasite the GOP had you believing existed in abundance in this country, there were 100's of thousands of upright Liberals, independents and conservatives. Their untiring efforts to make you believe otherwise and buy in to their one size fits all solution was actually the problem!
O I C Y LOL Stupid is what stupid does 4 more years, now that is just stupid!
That picture of a crying baby doesn't look like Obama today... It looks just like you!
HEY BRENT, we're really concerned for your safety. We'd hate to see you do something stupid so how about we place you on suicide watch??? Wait a second, everything you do is stupid. LMFAO
Brent, speaking of "stupid", don't you realize that you are now officially a LOSER? Why don't you lose that stupid avatar that just highlights your FAILURE to pick the winning side?