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Kevin Lamarque / Reuters
Campaigning with Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, voting and election results.
Obama’s demographic edge… And the GOP’s demographic dilemma… Breaking down last night’s results… Do status-quo election results = status-quo governing?... Obama’s swing-county swagger…His tactical dominance… And lots of history was made last night.
*** Obama's demographic edge: Yes, the auto bailout mattered in Ohio. Sure, Hurricane Sandy helped the president. And, yes, the economy was the No. 1 issue. But make no mistake: What happened last night was a demographic time bomb that had been ticking and that blew up in GOP faces. As the Obama campaign had assumed more than a year ago, the white portion of the electorate dropped to 72%, and the president won just 39% of that vote. But he carried a whopping 93% of black voters (representing 13% of the electorate), 71% of Latinos (representing 10%), and also 73% of Asians (3%). What’s more, despite all the predictions that youth turnout would be down, voters 18-29 made up 19% of last night’s voting population -- up from 18% four years ago -- and President Obama took 60% from that group. The trend also played out in the key battleground states: The president won about 70% of the Latino vote in Colorado and Nevada, and he won 60% of it in Florida (a high number given the state’s large GOP-leaning Cuban-American population). On Monday, we wrote that demography could determine destiny. And that’s exactly what happened. While the campaign’s turnout operation deserves all the credit for getting these voters to the polls, the most significant event of this presidential contest might very well have been the 2010 census.
*** And the GOP’s demographic dilemma: Obama’s demographic edge creates this dilemma for the Republican Party: It can no longer rely on white voters to win national elections anymore, especially in presidential cycles. Indeed, according to the exit poll, 89% of all votes Mitt Romney won last night came from whites (compared with 56% for Obama). So the Republicans are maximizing their share with white voters; they just aren’t getting the rest. And come 2016, the white portion of the electorate will probably drop another couple of points to 70%. Politico’s Martin puts it this way: “Battling a wheezing economy and a deeply motivated opposition, Obama still managed to retain much of his 2008 map because of the GOP’s deficiencies with the voters who are changing the political face of once conservative-leaning Virginia, Florida, Colorado and Nevada. Republicans face a crisis: the country is growing less white and their coalition has become more white in recent years. In 2004, George W. Bush won [about 40 percent] of Hispanics. Four years later, John McCain, the author of an immigration reform bill, took 31 percent of Hispanics. And this year, Romney captured only 27 percent of Hispanics.”
NBC's Chuck Todd discusses how Florida may be used as a model for the rest of the country to show how changes in demographics, particularly an influx of Hispanic voters in key counties, affected the outcome of the election.
*** Hard for the GOP just to turn to the Midwest: Now Republicans might argue, “Look, we can win back the Midwest -- Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin.” Yet those account for 34 electoral votes. But the Sun Belt states where Obama campaigned and which have more diverse populations (Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia) have a total of 57 electoral votes. And then there are Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. Do those states come into play in 2016? What about 2020? Come 2016, you could argue that Arizona and Georgia become for Democrats what Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania are for Republicans -- just slightly out of reach.
*** Last night’s results: The morning after, here are the results (so far) from last night: Obama holds 303 electoral votes and Romney 206. (NBC News has yet to call Florida and its 29 electoral votes, but Obama leads there 50%-49%.) In the popular vote, it’s Obama 50%, Romney 48%. Also, Democrats have held on to their Senate majority and might add to it -- with undecided races in Montana (where Democratic incumbent Jon Tester leads 48%-48% with 77% in) and North Dakota (where Democrat Heidi Heitkamp is ahead by about 3,000 voters with 93% in). But Republicans held on to control of the House, holding 237 seats vs. 197 for the Democrats, plus-minus four seats.
President Obama and former governor Mitt Romney both spent billions of dollars and logged thousands of miles on the campaign trail, and it all culminated in one very dramatic election night. Take a look back at the long road that led to the Presidential election.
*** Does status-quo control = status-quo governing? So in the end, we got a status-quo result -- with Obama holding on to the White House, Democrats keeping control of the Senate, and Republicans maintaining their grip on the House. But here’s the question with the “fiscal cliff” negotiations coming up: Will the governing be status quo, too? Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell released this statement last night: “To the extent [Obama] wants to move to the political center, which is where the work gets done in a divided government, we’ll be there to meet him half way. That begins by proposing a way for both parties to work together in avoiding the ‘fiscal cliff’ without harming a weak and fragile economy, and when that is behind us work with us to reform the tax code and our broken entitlement system.” And House Speaker John Boehner makes a statement on the “fiscal cliff” negotiations at 3:30 pm ET. But who holds the mandate here? The GOP? Or a president who waged a national campaign on raising taxes for the wealthy, and who won? And here’s another question: Do Boehner and McConnell take advantage of the lame duck to compromise?
*** Obama’s swing-county swagger: Turning back to last night’s presidential contest, Obama beat Romney in almost all of the swing counties (won by Bush in ’04 but by Obama in ’08). Indeed, Obama won three of four swing counties in Florida (Hillsborough, Pinellas, Osceola), four of six in Ohio (Hamilton, Wood, Ottawa, Sandusky), 11 of 14 in Virginia (including Loudon, Prince William, and Henrico), and all six in Colorado (including Jefferson, Arapahoe, and Larimer). And despite losing North Carolina, Obama may have proved that the state is changing, becoming more “Mid-Atlantic” but not quite all there, as Charlie Cook has said. Obama won nine of 13 swing counties in the Tar Heel State (including the large counties of Wake, Forsyth, Cumberland, and Buncombe).
*** And his tactical dominance: But it was more than winning the swing counties for Obama; it was tactical dominance. Romney made inroads all across the country from previous GOP performance. What happened, however, was that the Obama campaign exploited the census and changed the margins. The best example of this was in Florida.
*** Making history: Finally, it was an historic-making election. With Obama’s re-election, we now have the first time since Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe that Americans have elected three two-term presidents in a row… Tammy Baldwin will become the Senate’s first openly gay member… The Senate will have at least 19 female members -- the most ever -- and there’s a chance that number could increase to 20 if Heitkamp wins… Maryland and Maine became the first states to approve of gay marriage at the ballot box… And initiatives to legalize marijuana passed in Colorado and Washington state.
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Leave a Comment:
I'm retired and since my wife is gone now I think I'm going to take my retirement and move to Panama with my brother, trading one third world country for another can't be all that bad.
Habla?
Bye.
I'll send you a post card.
Don't bother, been there.
I still love my country, not going anywhere.
Someone shoot me if I turn into a miserable hateful old man, please.
Thinking - you must live in the deep south. The rest of the country is much better. You don't need to go all the way to Panama. The west coast is nice.
Thinking - hope never to see you traitor, this country will be a little bit better after you are gone.
when will obama start leading the country out of fiscal dispare, when will obama balance the budget ? when will obama stop trying to pick winners and let the free market choose what's going to work and not work, when will obama stop pressing for more regulations against the coal industry, when will obama start acting like a president instead of a prom queen ? And finally when will obama tell the American people what he knows about the Bengahzi fiasco, and fast & furious, and what he meant when he told putin when I am re-elected I will have more leeway ?
When will you GOP parrots finally admit all this BS you've been spewing over the last 6 month or so was nothing more than a desperate attempt to try and make your guy look at least honest and a good candidate by bending and outright lieing about the facts?
When will conservatives decide to have a national party or be content with their redneck jamboree?
Romney lost, stop quoting those lines from the "GOPs Talking Points for Dummies".
you kids stop it now or no dessert.
Only ignorant gullible fools and welfare fed losers would support someone like Obama.
Expect a complete and total economic collapse the likes of which will make 2009 look like a picnic.
Dow already fell 312 points today... expect a drop of several THOUSAND points in the next few months.
The 16 Trillion in debt will fall right in the lap of the middle class to pay... there are not enough in the 1% to make the slighest dent in it.
Massive unemployment is coming, and expect the cost of food, gas etc to double or more. Inflation will run rampant.
There is NO MONEY for any of Obama's lies and promises. He knew how dumb, unsophisticated, and stupid most of you are... and played you like a fiddle with the class warfare game. Well you have lost...
Be careful what you wish for. You have just bought a candy coated turd.... hook, line and sinker. ENJOY!
"sAyItLiKeItIs
When Romney wins Tuesday and the election is over I hope that all of the libtards will consider leaving the USA. Trash like you are not wanted here. The libtards are a cancer that must be removed.
Tue Nov 6, 2012 12:09 AM EST"
Um, you don't really have a good track record in forecasting. Stick with watching the fries.
Morose. Why was the stock market so high to begin with? Oh, yes, Obama was president then too. How curious. Which Obama is to be blamed?
How many Republicans will commit suicide if things don't get worse? What if recovery continues? That would make Republicans even more depressed. First it was trickle down, now it is obstruction. Doesn't anything work any more?
Stock market was high because the rich do well no matter what especially when Ostumbler keeps printing zillions of dollars.. Ostumbler is a middle class nightmare. How's that .25 % interest rate on savings and $3.79 loaf of bread treating you.
Billionaires bought themselves a president. Now let them have him. They can play dress-ups with him or glue him to a yacht.
Billionaires, of course, bought only Mitt, but he is their president to own. Karl Rove was their shopping adviser, wherever he is now. Sheldon Adelson owns a big piece of Mitt.
President Obama had only 4 million individual contributors, not four billionaire contributors. He belongs to the people.
McCain gave a nice concession speech 4 years ago and then went completely nuts a week or two later. He has never recovered. It will be interesting to see what happens with Romney. I think Romney looked relieved. There had to be a ton of paybacks for the hundreds of millions of dollars put up by the Koch brothers, Karl Rove, Sheldon Adelson etc. And I think Romney knew he wasn’t up to the job. It will also be interesting to see who is on the hot seat. Karl Rove? Chris Christie? Mitt Romney or some of his advisers? Some stuff is going to hit the fan in the next week or two.
I voted for Romney, that being said I'm not that unhappy that obama won. Now they will learn their lesson "the goverment will not take care of them". Unfortunatly we all are going to suffer but I know as a conservative, we (conservatives) will be the ones making sure this country gets back on track. Sometimes you have to let the kid fail to show them the error of their ways.
If you are smart you will have put yourself in a position that makes no difference who won as I have done. I do firmly believe we are in for a very bumpy ride , I don't see anything changing for the better. The republicans will cave to obama they have no choice, obama doesn't need to worry about re-eletion but republicans do. It has been fun but I will not be posting here agian for awhile, I feel there is no need to, whats done is done.
By the way coincidentally I recieved mail from the federal goverment today on how the new policys will be effecting my business and my employees. let the @!$%# storm begin.
Not posting here for awhile? Sore loser. Don't let the door hit you in the arse on your way out.
Learn to suffer at a high level. Everything is going the wrong way for Republicans. Too bad about your economic collapse, but we don't need it anymore.
You could try to take advantage of all the breaks you are getting. Be brave. Suffering is unnecessary, but if you prefer it, suffer conspicuously.
I own two business here in NY and it will be hard. don't forget Government don't create job Private people do.
BS I bet you don't have a business [you can't even spell], what exactly did you receive? Just a sore loser that is all. If your business fails it will be because of your incompetence.
I just couldnt help but respond to you oh_no, I own a very succesful business in Florida no thanks to you idiot liberals or obama. Unfortunatly I cannot give you the name of my business, we all see how you pieces of @!$%# deal with business you don't agree with. The only incompetence here is you and the rest of the liberal community.
I'm in no way a sore loser, you simply can teach anyone if they already know everything (another liberal trait).
oh i don't use spell correct like you dumn ass liberals(we know it makes you all look good) if I make a mistake I'm capable of admitting it and dealling with the consequences. You liberals cannot and are not capable of admitting your wrong and WILL not accept any responsibility. Now go cream all over yourself over obama but I will have the last laugh, one day you will grow up (well maybe not) but we can be hopeful can't we.
affinty, like I said I have it under control and will not suffer trust me. your and people like you are not going to suffer your sucking on the goverment tit. we are feeding you, but remember eventually you get kicked out of the nest.
sorry you will suffer when the wet dream is over, enjoy it while you can
goodbye america its been nice, until 2008. you elected a muslim liberal that hates america and is doing his best to ruin it. borrow, lie, borrow, lie and so on. most of his voters are on welfare or "working" for the government. 43,000,000 people on food stamps? he cant count so he does not care how much money he borrows! i need a real birth certificate, real social security number, to see his college records, see his lost attorney license along with his wifes lost license! and find out why he lied about the murder of four.
ovomit thinks hes a rock star!!!!
PUKE!
I'm so glad that haters like you were not victorious last night. Last night proved that you are indeed the minority now.
Good lawd, a birther,lol
you are the reason why Mr. Obama won
robert: many Republicans have come in here and graciously congratulated the winners. Then there are people like you who show us how the GOP lost last night.
Here's a crying towel for you.....
There are times that republicans have to check into the real world. Deal with real world facts. They don’t like it and will be back to their alternate universe as soon as possible. Looks like many of them really didn’t know what was going to happen last night. It did look like it was going to be close but clearly, Obama was the favorite to win. I was nervous because I really don’t want to go back to the financial disaster of 2008. One economic collapse every 60 to 80 years is enough.
It's the republican attempts at social legislation that scare me.
A lot of hate and fiction went to waste last night. Even racism lost its glow. Now what will Republicans do for entertainment? Perhaps they could move to Jersey Shore and buy some wreckage to live under.
Jim actually you don't know the real world but you will soon. United states is no longer what it use to be. We have become a Nation of SIN, Corruption, Lies, we are falling to our lowest level of man kind.
Greg
it is a bit better after last night.
There is no democracy in this country.
1. Illegal's voting
2. Illegal's with licenses
3. Obama gave amnesty to a million illegal's before the elections.
4. Tens of thousands of US Military were not allowed to vote because they are serving over seas...
There is a ton of crooked $hit going on in this country. There isn't a problem with the Conservative narrative. The problem is with the cheaters.
What no comment from the left?
You lost, loser. How's that for a comment?
Blamo
There would be a comment if there was something worth commenting about but I was amazed, I thought Neanderthals became extinct a long time ago.
What country, Wonderland? You can choose to check out propaganda if you can't resist it. It only requires basic skills.
i congratulate the people of the United States for a job well done. Obama didn't run on his record and the media made sure to keep it quiet. It a shame but you will see your master piece. I hope he would do better this coming four years than the last four. this time Bush won't be there to put the Blame. No matter how bad the media and Obama painted Romney he would have been better for the US. Like I said I'm very happy for your victory but don't sing to loud. It sweet to your mouth and sour in your stomach. I give you till July 2013 before you start crying.
gregorio
The left is incapable of gracious victory. It didn't used to be like this. They used to have civility and class. Now. Well we know what they have become.
Not only a loser, but a crybaby as well. Wow!!
Speaking of civility and class, Obama tried to start his first term with civility and class, and the Republicans started stonewalling him and questioning his birth certificate, among other things. One thing that I'm glad to see is that Romney and some other Republican leaders sound a lot more civil now than they did four years ago. I'm hoping that civility and class returns to both parties. The problems this country faces can only be solved if we work together and find a middle ground that both sides can support. Let's hope!
Sorry alan. Obama started his term with a racial epithet telling the GOP that they had to sit at the back of the bus.
Sorry, Blamo, your lies are really wearing thin. Yesterday the American people spoke, and they voted you down.
Your ignorance shows. Don't blame Obama for your information gap. Do you want to look silly?
the people vote for Obama and congress and the senate must work together for the best of all of us. We elected them for a job and they need to fine away to work things out.
Allow me to enlighten the many who wore blinders once more.
It is not "demographics" that got the idiot re-elected.
It is "dumbassographics"
Watch your stock market.
Already it's in a spiral.
Contractors are canceling bids.
Investors are planning four year vacations.
And the BEST is yet to come.
I hope you libs are happy campers.
Every financial newsletter I get referred to republicans already (yesterday) declaring they would be intransigent on talks to avert the fiscal cliff.
Everyone one of them expressed deep concerns that congress would still not be able to work together to avoid it.
If the market took a dive today for political reasons and not due to Europe's issues, that's why.
If you think a presidential election, which most logical people knew was going to Obama, caused this today, you're sadly mistaken. The big surprise was republicans declaring their lack of cooperation before the results were even in.
Welcome to the United States of Zumbia, biggest 3rd world chithole on the planet presided over by Sheik Hussein Ostumbler. Arriba.
Leftsux: You could always leave and make it a better place! Thank God this democracy works in spite of people like you. A majority of the voting citizens disagree with you, but you can not accept the vote. Not exactly the premise the nation was founded upon. The idea now is for EVERYONE to do all they can to support those who won election to office (including the president) and help them get this country back on it's footing again. Negativity gets you nothing. America is all about after voting we accept the results, anything else is the road to oblivion.
Piss on them.
Does this mean the country has turned the corner and no longer will see candidates using race, ethnicity, and xenophobia to win votes in national elections? Unfortunately, probably not. But Republicans will now have to deal with the fact that pandering to white extremists, Tea Party zealots, bible thumping Christian Conservatives, and mega rich billionaire egotists is no longer a viable plan for winning the White House. It may work with a local state district constituency to get a seat in the House of Representatives but no will cut it on a national level. Wouldn't it be a shocker to have candidates actually run on their attributes rather than spend their entire election campaigns put down the other guy with negative adds? I have always considered these negative add campaigns as an insult to my intelligence and their practitioners never make it to the top of my list. Oh, well, give 6 months and the electional cycle will start gearing up for 2016 and another 3 or 4 billion dollars of wasted money will be spent trying to buy our votes. Eat your heart out Donald Trump!
One Man, One Vote! You got to love it.
Are you serious? It means just the opposite. People voted with skin color. Where have you been? Somebody needs to define who these supposed white extremists are.
Time to print a few zillion more dollars before the stock market goes into free fall. Hows that .25 interest rate on your savings and $3.79 loaf of bread treating you. Get used to it. Foward.
Time for you to self deport with your birther teabagger friends who promised to leave if thir candidate lost. Go and don't let the door hit your ass on the way out.
Uck you. Just going to raise your rent. Ostumbler raises my taxes I'll raise your rent some more.
leftsux, you don't seem to realize that there's a majority of Americans who are tired of your BS. Many of us liberals are actually affluent, fully employed, and not easily fooled by Faux News. Do you really think the 47% are all a bunch of worthless bums? Or people living on welfare in rental units? How stupid can you be?
Speaking of Faux News, I looked at their website today, and their home page did not mention "Obama Wins Re-election" or anything about the outcome of the election. Talk about living in "denial"!!
Alan You're right. I noticed all those rich minorities, college students and single women voting for Ostumbler. I'm going to raise your rent.
Hey, not to worry.
Obama will borrow from anyone.
He's going to have to borrow from Exxon to get gas for AF ONE.
Besides, he has a secret weapon.
As long as "Little Big Headed Timmy" doesn't run out of paper and ink.
We can count on more monopoly money to come off the presses.
The republican party tried very hard to disenfranchise and suppress Hispanic, black and poor voters and they waited in line for up to nine hours to vote for the president in Florida and other states. Go figure!!
Oops $4 plus heating oil. Have to raise your rent. LOL
Gun store owners all voted for Sheik Hussein, the greatest firearm salesman in the world.
You are correct. I just ordered a new one myself.
Wait until the Ostumbler constituency finds out they're not going to get their free chit. LOL
You are right. He cannot possibly turn water into wine as promised. When skin color and free "chit" are the determining factors in a Presidential election, we have big problems. I must say. It appears that he won fair and square. Sad.
Lefsux: You sound like one of the mouthy opinionated mentally challenged who didn't even vote. What exactly have you done lately to make this country better besides run your mouth? Did you volunteer to help at the voting poles? Do you help at Habitat For Humanity? Do you volunteer to help at your church. Do contribute to United Way and the Red Cross. I mean some one like you with so much to say must spend a lot of time and energy doing the little extra things to make America a great place. Or do you just get on the Internet and run your mouth?
Actually my charitable contribution rate is way higher than Ostumbler's and Joe Biteme's. LOL. Sorry about the country being in freefall right down the toilet. Free abortions and opioids might help.
Leftnutless--Charitable contributions? Sounds like the only contributions you made was donating your brain to science and they left you holding the bag. Loud on mouth and short on action. Still a loser though. Typical loser reaction: bad mouth the winners and try to sound cool. Meanwhile, you still come up a loser..
Just remember "White people" voted for Obama two!!! Sometimes these pundits make me sick!! The Democratic party is about diverisity. don't try to change that MSNBC!!!
Hey Jim
Two? Not too? You punctuate the problem with the electorate. Ignoramuses.
Georgia-Jim
You are right, and we're not ignoring that. I'm certain Obama doesn't Ignore that either. There is no way it could have happened without the white vote. That's what makes it so great, Obama is the president for all Americans.
Congrtaulations President Obama!
Diversity and multiculturalism sucks. Code words for cultural suicide. I need to fire somebody. LOL
Poppycock! Bigotry should be a thing of the past, obviously it isn't.
Don't worry Lefsux no one wants to marry you or even associate with you. We would just like for you to recognize that there are other people who are citizens of this country. It is not your country alone.
Singleup I'm married and have 3 sons and 2 daughters. Thank God they're not as dumb as you. What i recognize is the dumbing down of the electorate. Printing zillions of dollars helps the very poor and the rich. Just squeezes the middle class with inflation and .25% interest on their savings. Smartenup.
Leftsux
Your words not mine
Looking at the consession speech for Romney and the victory speech for Obama I noticed the lack of diversity in the crowd at the Romney event. I don't recall seeing but a few, if any, non- white people. In the Obama crowd there were all sorts of people, a very diverse audience. Like it or not this country is becoming more diverse. If the Republican party doesn't reform, and soon, they aren't going to see a victory in the Presidency any time in the near future.
baldeagle
Only a racist would notice such a thing.
baldeagle
Your observation is correct and it was in your face obvious.
Blamo
A racist would not notice that there was diversity in Obama's camp because the racist would keep the channel tuned to Romney's camp only.
They will not change so long as the racist, homophobic, holy rollers extremist wag the dog.
Sheik Hussein Ostumbler & George Armstrong Custer- "Foward."
Pretty funny/sad.
Akin -GONE!
Mourdock - HISTORY!
Alan West - TOAST!
If the GOP refuses to purge their party of Insane & Stupid candidates... America will do it for them!
You couldn't carry Alan West's jock strap. Patriot and statesman.
I wouldn't want to after you've been sniffing it!
Such a shame that the GOP stance on legitimate rape.... FAILED
Blamo
Oh yeah! Patriot who got his ass kicked out of the army for doing stupid sh!t, just like he was doing in congress. The guy's got a screw lose. Not every day a LT Col get his but kick out of the military. I guess the army didn't want to carry his jock strap either.