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Subscribe to RSSDES MOINES, Iowa -- Returning for the final time to the state that launched the 2012 campaign so many months ago, Mitt Romney asked Iowans on Sunday morning to support him one last time, by casting their ballots for the "change" candidate on Tuesday.
"I need your vote, I need your work, I need your help. Walk with me. We’ll walk together. Let’s begin anew," Romney said in closing here, his voice showing strains from days of frenetic campaigning. "I need Iowa – I need Iowa so we can win the White House and take back America, keep it strong, make sure we always remain the hope of the earth. I’m counting on you!"
A crowd of more than 4,000 supporters turned out for Romney's Sunday morning Iowa finale, in which the GOP nominee delivered his now-familiar closing argument stump speech calling on undecided voters to "look beyond the speeches and the attacks and all the ads," and make their final choice based on records, and who they believed stood the best chance to enact "real change" in the next four years.
Mitt Romney, striking a hopeful tone in the final days of the , returned to Iowa, the state that launched his campaign. "Iowans feel betrayed," Romney said.
"Talk is cheap. But a record is real and it’s earned with real effort," Romney said. "Change – you can’t measure change in speeches. You measure change in achievements.”
Romney has looked to strike a hopeful, optimistic tone in the final days of a campaign, which Sunday's newest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows remains deadlocked nationally, with Obama claiming 48 percent of the vote to Romney's 47 percent. Romney advisers concede they're likely narrowly behind in Iowa based on early voting totals and internal polling, but remain confident Romney can win the state with a strong showing from Republican voters and independents on Election Day.
Attacks against the president, calibrated to appeal to those independent voters, remained in this final appearance. Romney criticized the president for asking supporters to vote based on revenge for the sixth-straight rally ("Voting is the best revenge," Obama said in Ohio on Friday; an off-the-cuff remark quickly grafted into Romney's stump speech), and during his introduction of Romney, Iowa's Republican Gov. Terry Branstad accused the president of betraying Iowans natural fiscal restraint.
"Iowans feel betrayed. Almost a sense of -- not only disappointed, but almost a sense of betrayal that our principles of sound budgeting and responsible government have been ignored by this administration for four straight years," Branstad said. "Iowa's message for Obama is: It's time for a change. It's time for you to go back to Chicago."
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Romney and Rove are saying to the LDS Secy of State Schulze - We put you in office for a specific reason and that was to give Iowa to the Republicans. You had better deliver no matter hook or crook.
Ahh! If Bill Clinton could run again!
By a landslide, hands down.
Now the lunatics of the right wing asylum wil come up with: MONICA!!
What else do they have?
Yes Mitt, you need Iowa, but Iowa doesn't need you!
But you can move there on Wednesday, after losing the election.
NO he cannot!! We don't want that P.O.S. living in our state!!! He can move to the Caymans, then he can sleep with his stolen money!
O AND JOE THE ONLY WAT TO GO!!!
Ahh! If Bill Clinton could run again!
By a landslide, hands down!
Now the lunatics of the right wing asylum will come up with: MONICA!! What else do they have?
Romney and Rove are saying to the LDS Secy of State Schulze in Iowa. We put you in office for the express purpose of bringing Iowa to Romney by hook or crook! The Democrats need to have their lawyers waiting because there will be problems.
Hopefully, after Wednesday we'll never hear the name Romney. And hopefully Ryan will lose his House Seat and we'll never hear from him ever again either.
Romney and Rove told LDS Secy of State Schulze in no uncertain terms. We put you in office to take Iowa for Romney/Ryan and you'd better deliver by hook or crook. Bring out the Democratic lawyers.
Rummey, get the hell out of my state!!! If i was there today, i would have kicked your lyin ass out, myself! Unfortunately, I am working in my fellow state of Illinois, and could not get there. I can only hope that my fellow Iowans kicked your ass out? At the very least, i hope they booed you, and that stupid assed governor of ours!
I cannot believe that Iowans voted that Bumstaadt back in? After the first 16 years, you should have learned, but no!!!
My fellow Iowans, vote a straight Dem. ticket this year, and send that do nothing but commit treason congress a message!
VOTE O AND JOE!!! MOVING ALL AMERICANS FORWARD, NOT BACK!!!!
I'm an independent and was undecided until now - just voted for President Obama! I believe the President deserves 4 more years. Not sure about Governor Romney - I simply don't know what he stands for?!?! I'm not sure he knows either!
Romney and Rove put Iowa Secy of State Schulze in office last year for the express purpose of giving Iowa to Romney come hook or crook. Schulze has a lot in common with both Romney and Rove as to their background and religion. The Democrats might as well get ready with the lawyers because Schulze knows he is under tremendous pressure to deliver.
Fixed that for ya, Mitt.
Obama's call is "walk with me if you are a marxist, a sexual pervert, or a baby killer"
Looks like Obama supports equal rights for all Americans, while Romney thinks some Americans should be 2nd-class citizens.
I'm just surprised that when Romney was running in the Iowa primary that he didn't sign the original Iowa Family Leader pledge which endorsed slavery, especially given that his religion supported racial segregation until very recently. Romney did however sign the revised version of the pledge, which supported Christian sharia law as well as a constitutional amendment to treat gays as 2nd-class citizens.
And Ohio and Pennsylvania and Florida and Colorado and....
Updated for 8:00pm EST on Sunday, November 4, 2012:
*** Updated RCP averaged polling numbers plus new FiveThirtyEight projections across the board.
Obama's leads have been strengthening in Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada over the weekend while weakening in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan; Romney has stabilized his position in both Florida and North Carolina.
Curiously, polling in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia has been strangely absent over the past two days.
Mischief alert: Quite a bit of suspect outlier polling favorable to Romney being floated out in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan today in the face of multiple polling which confirms strong Obama leads in each of these states. The Karl Rove axiom of 'shape perceptions to alter outcomes,' perhaps?
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With less than 28 hours to go in the 2012 presidential campaign, Real Clear Politics (RCP) continues to report that Obama leads in eight of their 11 toss-up states with Romney leading in three.
In descending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Obama, followed in ascending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Romney, here are the published averaged numbers from RCP as of 8:00pm EST together with the most recent FiveThirtyEight election night probabilities of victory for either candidate:
In WISCONSIN, with 10 electoral votes, Obama's lead fell this morning to 4.2%, down from 5.0% on Saturday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 94.3% chance of victory here, up by 1.0% from Friday and by an astounding 8.6% since Tuesday.
*** Advisory: It should be noted that RCP's average in Wisconsin has been influenced by an outlier poll from the right-leaning Rassmussen which has the race at a dead heat when four other current polls have Obama leading by 8.0%, 7.0%, 3.0%, and 3.0%. In fact, the 7.0% Obama lead was affirmed recently by another Right-leaning poll (WeAskAmerica) which is wholly funded by the conservative Illinois Manufacturing Association.
In PENNSYLVANIA, with 20 electoral votes, Obama's lead fell this morning to 3.9%, down from 4.1% on Saturday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 97.9% chance of victory here, up by 1.8% from Friday and by a significant 3.8% since Tuesday.
*** Advisory: It should be noted that RCP's average in Pennsylvania also has been influenced this weekend by the release of an outlier poll from the conservative Pittsburgh Tribune-Review which has the race at a dead heat when two other findings have Obama's lead at 3.0% and 6.0%.
In MICHIGAN, with 16 electoral votes, Obama's lead fell this morning to 3.8%, down from 4.0% on Saturday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 98.6% chance of victory here, up 0.2% from Friday and by 0.5% since Tuesday.
*** Advisory: It should be noted that RCP's average here has been influenced by yet another outlier poll, one released by Baydoun/Foster (D), a self-described Democrat-leaning voter analytics consulting firm based in Michigan, which has Romney up by 1.0% when four other polls have Obama leading by 6.0%, 6.0%, 5.0%, and 3.0%. In fact, the 5.0% finding for Obama was published late last week by Rasmussen, another Right-leaning poll. The irony is that Baydoun/Foster has consistently produced polling results which favor Republican candidates up and down the ticket in Michigan and their results, by and large, remain highly suspect.
In IOWA, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead rose this evening to 3.0%, up from 2.0% on Saturday morning. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 80.7% chance of victory here, down by 2.4% from Friday but up and by a substantial 6.8% since Tuesday.
In OHIO, with 18 electoral votes, Obama's lead held today at 2.8%, up from 2.6% on Friday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 86.0% chance of victory here, up by 5.3% from Friday and by an astronomical 12.7% since Tuesday.
In NEVADA, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead held today at 2.8%, up from 2.4% on Friday.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 90.1% chance of victory here, up by 2.9% from Friday and by an astonishing 10.4% since Tuesday.
In NEW HAMPSHIRE, with 4 electoral votes, Obama's lead held today at 1.5%, down from 1.8% on Friday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 79.4% chance of victory here, up by 0.7% from Friday and by an astounding 9.1% since Tuesday.
In COLORADO, with 9 electoral votes, Obama's lead held today at 0.6%, down from 0.9% on Friday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 69.3% chance of victory here, up by 3.6% from Friday and by an astronomical 13.9% since Tuesday.
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In VIRGINIA, with 13 electoral votes, Romney's lead held today at 0.3%, down from 0.5% on Friday. Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight increased Obama's chance of victory here (and not Romney's) to 70.7%, up by a substantial 5.9% from Friday.
In FLORIDA, with 29 electoral votes, Romney's lead held today at 1.4%, up from 1.2% on Friday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney a 55.0% chance of victory here, up by 0.2% from Friday.
*** Advisory: It should be noted that RCP's average in Florida does appear to have been hyper-inflated by two recent outlier findings in favor of Romney, the first a 6.0% margin yesterday from the right-leaning Mason-Dixon Group with localized results for only the two cities of Tampa Bay (site of the 2012 RNC) and Miami (Marco Rubio stronghold), the second a 3.0% margin from Gravis Marketing, a polling firm funded in large part by BAIN Capital, and an appreciably older finding by The Sunshine State News, an ultra-conservative website/blog which had Romney leading by 5.0% on October 24. Minus the influences of these extreme outliers, Romney's true lead is likely well under 1.0% and quite possibly closer to that of dead heat.
In NORTH CAROLINA, with 15 electoral votes, Romney's lead continued to hold at 3.8%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney a 79.7% chance of victory here, down 0.2% from Friday.
So...
In order for Obama to win re-election the least complex route would be through maintaining his current lead in the five toss-up states where his existing margins are widest (Wisconsin at 4.2%, Pennsylvania at 3.9%, Michigan at 3.8%, Iowa at 3.0%, and Ohio at 2.8%. Doing so would bring his electoral vote total on Election Day to 271. In this scenario, Obama could still surpass 270 while failing to hold Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado.
However, should Obama fail to hold the strategic prize of a hotly-contested Ohio, the loss could effectively be neutralized by any of the following combination of wins from states where FiveThirtyEight is currently forecasting Obama victories:
Path #1: Obama loses Ohio but holds the remaining three states where he presently leads, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado resulting in 272 electoral votes.
Path #2: Obama loses Ohio but steals Virginia while also taking only one state from among Nevada, New Hampshire, or Colorado resulting in 272, 270, or 275 electoral votes, respectively.
Interestingly, with Romney's lead having diminished significantly in Florida over the past two weeks and with Hurricane Sandy forcefully highlighting the stark contrast between the candidates regarding the value and necessity if not the mere existence of FEMA in a state which has perhaps the greatest dependence on federal storm relief efforts in the nation, a 3rd path has now emerged which could provide for some interesting election night television:
Path #3: Obama comes from behind to win Florida. This scenario would require only that Obama win the three states in which his present leads are widest (Wisconsin at 4.2%, Pennsylvania at 3.9%, and Michigan at 3.8%), resulting in 276 electoral votes.
For Romney to unseat Obama, he not only would have to hold the three states in which he presently leads, North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia bringing his electoral vote total to 248, but also steal victories in at least one of the following possible combinations from states currently leaning Obama, listed in descending order of likelihood based on the reverse engineering of current FiveThirtyEight numbers for election night chances of victory:
Path A: Romney steals both Ohio and Colorado resulting in 275 electoral votes (least unlikely outcome).
Path B: Romney steals both Ohio and New Hampshire resulting in 270 electoral votes.
Path C: Romney steals both Pennsylvania and Colorado resulting in 277 electoral votes.
Path D: Romney steals both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire resulting in 272 electoral votes (most unlikely).
Working against two of these scenarios (Paths A and B) are rising averaged polling numbers over the past two days for Obama in Ohio; however, in that same forty-eight hour period Romney has succeeded in reducing Obama's averaged leads in Pennsylvania, Colorado, and New Hampshire. Perhaps somewhat mystifyingly, the Romney campaign continues to make pronouncements alluding to their having embraced the "Pennsylvania Strategy" included in Paths 3 and 4 above, the two paths which have the least likely chance of success.
So, is this a bold strategic maneuver on the part of Eric Fehrnstrom or a feint designed to counter Obama's anticipated re-allocation of campaign resources to a quantifiably softening political landscape in Florida? If it's the latter, a review of the published travel schedules for the President and key Democrat surrogates for tomorrow, with the one exception of Bill Clinton, does not suggest the Obama campaign is taking the bait.
In any event, should Romney fail to steal either Ohio or Pennsylvania he could overcome this shortfall by capturing the four other states in which Obama's current leads are smallest (Colorado at 0.6%, New Hampshire at 1.5%, Nevada at 2.8%, and Iowa at 3.0%) resulting in an electoral vote total of 273.
FiveThirtyEight this morning estimates the chance of Election Day victory for each candidate as follows: Obama 85.5% (up significantly from Friday morning's 80.9%) and Romney 14.5% (down by a similar margin from Friday's 19.1%).
FiveThirtyEight now also projects that on Election Day the final electoral tally will be as follows: Obama 306 (up 7 from Wednesday's 299) and Romney 232 (down 7 from Wednesday's 239).
Lastly, although it makes no difference in terms of the final result which can only be determined by the Electoral College, FiveThirtyEight currently predicts a national popular vote distribution on Election Day as follows: Obama 50.5% (up from Thursday's 50.4%) and Romney 48.5% (down from Thursday's 48.6%).
With only 28 hours of campaigning left, and with Friday's published October jobs report playing to predictably mixed reviews (economy adding more jobs than expected; unemployment rate ticking up one tenth of one percent to 7.9%), holdout voters may now be left to nothing more than the proverbial 'feel in their gut' as Tuesday approaches.
Predictions: Look for craziness down in Florida on Election Day and an unwillingness on the part of the Ohio Secretary of State, Jon Husted, to call the election in his state in a timely manner. In spite of these obstacles, Obama wins the White House with an electoral vote total of 332 to Romney's 206, taking Virginia and Florida along the way.
The very fact that Obama wont address the Libya,Benghazi cover-up, and by his own words saying there's no need to talk about it before the election (like that is an answer) is proof that he is dirty,And his followers don't even want to know the truth of a set-up,murder and cover-up of a ambassador that dared to disagree with him and his policy's
The official story surrounding the events of September 11, 2012 in Benghazi, Libya which left four Americans dead, has now officially fallen apart.
After numerous flips and flops by the Obama administration, which originally attempted to paint the incident as a Muslim outcry over an anti-Islamic video, whistle blowers throughout the U.S. government, including within the White House, the State Department, national intelligence agencies and the U.S.military have made available stunning details that suggest not only did operational commanders have live visual and audio communications from drones overhead and intelligence assets on the ground, but that some commanders within the military were prepared to go-it-alone after being told to "stand down."
Africom commanding officer U.S. General Carter Ham, after being ordered to essentially surrender control of the situation to alleged Al Queda terrorists and let Americans on the ground die, made the unilateral decision to ignore orders from the Secretary of Defense and activated special operations teams at his disposal for immediate deployment to the area.(if the general had not intervened' there would be 34 dead Americans and not just 4---And now Obama has the U.S. General Arrested for Activating Special Forces Teams; Ignoring Libya Stand-Down Order. (Obama does not like the real light to be shined on him,HuH!)