Updated for 11:00pm EST on Saturday, November 3, 2012:

*** Spoiler alert: Today Obama made substantial gains in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Iowa while seeing his margins fall in Wisconsin and New Hampshire; Romney improved his position in Florida.

---------------------------------------------------------

Real Clear Politics (RCP) consistently has been the "go-to" source for accurate averaged daily polling data for both FOXNEWS and NBCNEWS. With less than 49 hours to go in the 2012 presidential campaign, RCP continues to report that Obama holds increasing leads in eight of their 11 toss-up states while Romney clings to smaller and more static leads in the remaining three.

In descending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Obama, followed in ascending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Romney, here are the published averaged numbers from RCP as of 11:00pm EST together with the most recent FiveThirtyEight election night probabilities of victory for either candidate:

In WISCONSIN, with 10 electoral votes, Obama's lead has fallen to 5.0%, down from 5.4% on Friday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 94.2% chance of victory here, up by 0.9% from Friday and by an astounding 8.5% since Tuesday.

In PENNSYLVANIA, with 20 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 4.8%, up from 4.6% on Friday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 96.6% chance of victory here, up by 0.5% from Friday and by a respectable 2.5% since Tuesday.

In MICHIGAN, with 16 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 4.0%, up from 3.5% on Friday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 98.6% chance of victory here, up 0.2% from Friday and by 0.5% since Tuesday.

In OHIO, with 18 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.9%, up from 2.6% on Friday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 83.8% chance of victory here, up by 3.1% from Friday and by an astonishing 10.5% since Tuesday.

In NEVADA, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.7%, up from 2.4% on Friday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 88.7% chance of victory here, up by 1.5% from Friday and by an astounding 9.0% since Tuesday.

In IOWA, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.5%, up from 2.0% on Saturday morning. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 80.7% chance of victory here, down interestingly by 0.9% from Friday but up overall by a substantial 6.8% since Tuesday.

In NEW HAMPSHIRE, with 4 electoral votes, Obama's lead has fallen to 1.5%, down from 1.8% on Friday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 80.4% chance of victory here, up by 1.7% from Friday and by an astonishing 10.1% since Tuesday.

In COLORADO, with 9 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 1.0%, up from 0.9% on Friday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 67.9% chance of victory here, up by 2.2% from Friday and by an astronomical 12.5% since Tuesday.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

In VIRGINIA, with 13 electoral votes, Romney's lead has fallen to 0.3%, down from 0.5% on Friday. Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight increased Obama's chance of victory here (and not Romney's) to 67.0%, up 2.2% from Friday. Nate Silver must be seeing something...

In FLORIDA, with 29 electoral votes, Romney's lead has risen to 1.4%, up from 1.2% on Friday. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney a 54.8% chance of victory here, but this margin is actually down a stunning 9.9% from Tuesday.

It should be noted that RCP's average in Florida does appear to have been hyper-inflated by two recent outlier findings in favor of Romney, the first a 6.0% margin today from the unapologetically right-leaning Mason-Dixon Group with localized results for only the two cities of Tampa Bay (site of the 2012 RNC) and Miami (Marco Rubio stronghold), the second a 3.0% margin from Gravis Marketing, a polling firm funded in large part by BAIN Capital, and an appreciably older finding by The Sunshine State News, an ultra-conservative website/blog which had Romney leading by 5.0% on October 24. Minus the influences of these extreme outliers, Romney's true lead is likely well under 1.0% and quite possibly closer to that of dead heat. Ah, Florida....

In NORTH CAROLINA, with 15 electoral votes, Romney's lead is holding at 3.8%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney a 79.6% chance of victory here, down 0.3% from Friday.

So...

In order for Obama to win re-election the least complex route would be through maintaining his current lead in the five toss-up states where his existing margins are widest (Wisconsin at 5.0%, Pennsylvania at 4.8%, Michigan at 4.0%, Ohio at 2.9%, and Nevada at 2.7%). Doing so would bring his electoral vote total on Election Day to 271. In this scenario, Obama could still surpass 270 while failing to hold Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

However, should Obama fail to hold the strategic prize of Ohio, the loss could effectively be neutralized by any of the following combination of wins from states where FiveThirtyEight is currently forecasting Obama victories:

Path #1: Obama loses Ohio but holds the remaining three states where he presently leads, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Colorado resulting in 272 electoral votes.

Path #2: Obama loses Ohio but steals Virginia while also taking only one state from among New Hampshire, Iowa, or Colorado resulting in 270, 272, or 275 electoral votes, respectively.

Interestingly, with Romney's lead having diminished significantly in Florida over the past two weeks and with Hurricane Sandy forcefully highlighting the stark contrast between the candidates regarding the value and necessity if not the mere existence of FEMA in a state which has perhaps the greatest dependence on federal storm relief efforts in the nation, a 3rd path has now emerged which could provide for some interesting election night television:

Path #3: Obama comes from behind to win Florida. This scenario would require only that Obama win the three states in which his present leads are widest (Wisconsin at 5.0%, Pennsylvania at 4.8%, and Michigan at 4.0%), resulting in 276 electoral votes.

For Romney to unseat Obama, he not only would have to hold the three states in which he presently leads, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia bringing his electoral vote total to 248, but also steal victories in at least one of the following possible combinations from states currently leaning Obama, listed in descending order of likelihood based on the reverse engineering of current FiveThirtyEight numbers for election night chances of victory:

Path #1: 24.15% chance of Romney stealing both Ohio and Colorado, resulting in 275 electoral votes.

Path #2: 17.90% chance of Romney stealing both Ohio and New Hampshire, resulting in 270 electoral votes.

Path #3: 17.75% chance of Romney stealing both Pennsylvania and Colorado, resulting in 277 electoral votes.

Path #4: 11.50% chance of Romney stealing both Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, resulting in 272 electoral votes.

Working against each of these scenarios are rising averaged polling numbers over the past two days for Obama in Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Colorado; in that same forty-eight hour period, only in New Hampshire has Romney succeeded in reducing Obama's margin, and that by a slight 0.3%.

Perhaps somewhat mystifyingly, the Romney campaign continues to make pronouncements alluding to their having embraced the "Pennsylvania Strategy" included in Paths 3 and 4 above, the two paths which have the least likely chances of victory.

So, is this a bold strategic maneuver on the part of Eric Fehrnstrom or a feint designed to counter Obama's anticipated re-allocation of campaign resources to a quantifiably softening political landscape in Florida? If the latter, based on published campaign schedules for key Democrat surrogates, it doesn't appear the Obama campaign is taking the bait.

In any event, should Romney fail to steal either Ohio or Pennsylvania he could overcome this shortfall by capturing the four other states in which Obama's current leads are smallest (Colorado at 1.0%, New Hampshire at 1.5%, Iowa at 2.5%, and Nevada at 2.7%) resulting in an electoral vote total of 273.

FiveThirtyEight this morning estimates the chance of Election Day victory for each candidate as follows: Obama 83.7% (up markedly from Friday morning's 80.9%) and Romney 16.3% (down markedly from Friday's 19.1%).

FiveThirtyEight now also projects that on Election Day the final electoral tally will be as follows: Obama 305 (up 6 from Wednesday's 299) and Romney 233 (down 6 from Wednesday's 239).

Lastly, although it makes no difference in terms of the final result which can only be determined by the Electoral College, FiveThirtyEight currently predicts a national popular vote distribution on Election Day as follows: Obama 50.6% (up from Thursday's 50.4%) and Romney 48.4% (down from Thursday's 48.6%).

With less than 49 hours of campaigning to go, and with Friday's published October jobs report playing to predictably mixed reviews (economy adding more jobs than expected; unemployment rate ticking up one tenth of one percent to 7.9%), holdout voters may now be left to nothing more than the proverbial 'feel in their gut' as Tuesday approaches.

Remember to change the clocks tonight (Spring forward, Fall back), mow the yard tomorrow, and re-stock the 7-layer dip on Monday for an exhilarating night of television on Tuesday!

For those of you who are in the working class

I don't know about revenge but I sure hope Obama wins for the sake of the working class and reitrees and the future of the youth in our country. The lies told by the right wing, one after another, is bad enough but their policies will be even worse if Romney is elected. If he wins, the country is going to be handed over to those who financed his the right wing in Congress's campaigns. That would be right wing corporate interests such as the Koch Bros, oil, chemicals and pharma.

Do you in the working class really believe that having the country run by right wing corporate cartel is going to be good for our jobs, wages and middle class programs, like education, health care and the health and safety of our workers, our land, air and water? Do you really think that this oligarghy will care about anything but profit?

Romney is now threatening that the right in Congress will hold the country hostage, as they have done for all of Obama's Administration, if he is not elected. What do you think the right wing in Congress will do if anyone complains about wage cuts and cut programs? They will tell the workers that their jobs will go to China for the slave wages Romney now makes his profit off of in his investments he has there if the workers do not accept the cuts. Why wouldn't they, you who voted for them, knowing what their motives have been all along, will have given them free reign to do just that.

Romney's "love of country" - what bullsh!t, Rethuglicans in Congress and CONServatives everywhere vote for love of party, screw the country, that's their modus operandi from day one of President Obama's tenure, they HATE any success and good news for America the last 4 years, if this were any other era, they'd all be convicted of treason and shot. Deservedly so.

Please people do not take this out of content. You know what President Obama is saying when he said voting is the best revenge. The American people are very aware that the Republican Party practice obstructionism by refusing to move our country forward in one of the worst recession in our history since 1929. The Republican Party refused to help the American people in getting back work and addressing issues that will help the American economy. The Republican Party refused to help the American people get back to work by not passing the President Obama's jobs bill twice. This is wrong and the Republican Party should not be rewarded for this behavior. Politicians in time of need should always put the American people first. A prime example of our politicians working together is Governor Christie working with the President to help the people of New Jersey.

Obama/Biden 2012

Awwww super. Another spin by an Obama staffer explaining away the President.... super. They are pretty good at that.

Gofigureit, yeah the have to spin it so you right wingnuts might understand. You are so dense you know that a blue sky is not blue, and up is not up and down is not down. We have to spell things out very carefully because self induced ignornance to the point of shizophrenia has to be treated with delicate care and support.

FDR Pulled Us Together -- Putting Americans Back To Work -- And Building Us Into The Greatest Nation On The Planet -- Obama Is Trying To Do The Same -- The Poor Were Transformed And Became The Middle Class And The Middle Class Moved Up Wards -- An American Success Story -- It's A THE CORE Of Our Greatness!

When You Climb A Ladder Or Build A Building You Aways Start From The Bottom And Work Your Way Up -- Growing The Core Of America -- Not Start At The Top Climbing Down The Ladder Or Build The Roof First -- That Destroy The Core Of America -- Squeezing The Core -- Leaving Nothing For The Roof To Stand On!

The 1%ers Are The Squeezers Not The Growers!

Without The Core Growth -- Poor To Middle Class & Upward -- America Would Not Exist!

Not Top Down Here!

Sorry Romney -- Indians Have More Votes Than Chiefs!

Are people really so stupid that they have to be told what Obama's "revenge" comment meant?

Maybe so, because they sent an army of Klan members to Washington two years ago.

Our forefathers and many of our countrymen have paid the final price for the liberties we celebrate. One of the greatest gifts we can give to our fallen is to honor them by voting with one voice who we want to navigate through these troubled times, but then again I'm a Libertarian what do I know?

Even if Liar Romney and Lyin Ryan weren't such LIARS, they still wouldn't have had a chance. The GOP once again scraped the bottom of the outhouse and these 2 are the only pieces of $hit they could come out with. GOP try again around 2024, because until then you don't have a chance at the White House.

O&Joe 2012 ****Liar Romney 1040**** Where are them damn tax returns draft dodger???????

If Romney is so moral, why has he repeatedly lied? If he he has nothing to hide, why does he not show his tax returns or explain his off shored money so he can evade paying his US taxes? If he is so principled, why does he flip flop on everything he has run on in the past? Romney is not a moral man, he has not been straight with the voters and to date he has not explained what vouchers and his tax plan will do to the middle class and retirees. He has not explained how he intends to balance the budget. He speaks for the right wing corporate interests and no one else. Not good news for the working class and the retirees or the future of our youth. Romney cannot be trusted.

Karl Rove and Norquist, the two most dishonest men in the country and Bush/Cheney former advisers are running his campaign. Are the Republicans so dishonest that they will accept anything to win this election?

How can Dems not see that this type of rhetoric , and yes this jive talk is not presidential.. I wish the president had a message which would make me feel like real change is comming.. But talk about repeating the failed policies of the past .. people have better long term memory than they do short term.. Does not anyone remember whats been happening for the last four years ?

As far as the terminology.. There should not be such a word in the English language .. Can anyone with Christian values find just one valuable use in taking revenge on another..

Another thought: If the Democratic ideas and Liberal values were so very popular .. Why do Repulicals have control of the House and are expected to pick up more seats in the senate. ?

...happily, revenge works both ways! to rephrase: “is if you don’t like the policies, if you don’t like the plan that president obama is putting forward, if you think that’s a bad deal for the middle class, then you can go to the voting booth and cast your ballot. It’s nothing more complicated than that.”

the only thing the rominator loves about this country is money,otherwise he would have stood up to be counted in the war in vietnam,what a pos!!!!!!!

wow, there are some serious misfits making unreal and stagnant comments on this issue. The vast majority of whom are those who support Mitt and Paulie Boy, and they seem to show their support in a violent rhetorical manner leaving no doubt that their critical thinking caps have been left in a closet, somewhere.

Mitt says vote for America and country, yet his vote is definitely for the 1% as is the policies that he favors. so a vote for Mitt is really a vote for, as someone previously wrote, a vote for the return of the Robber Barons - those self made elitists that claim their right to rule originated in that wealth and the manner in which they gained that wealth.

every fortune starts with a crime. Mitt is a serious contender for criminal of the decade. should he be elected, the state of this country will become a shell of the original design by some rather brilliant men.

BTW, how many of you will benefit from the elimination of the estate tax? I won't, and I doubt that any of you on this blog or post will either. think first before leaping into the fires of backward, anti humane thoughts and actions.

Obama/Biden 2012 Mitt goes to rehab for truth serum injections.

Don't worry about Colorado-we got that one covered!

First of all the women are really pissed off with the GOP stand on women's rights and dirty ol'men who think they have a mission to take us back to the 50's. NOPE-not going back.

Second there is a ballot amendment to legalize pot...

My Colorado sister is an NRA'er and was a reflubican but converted her in 2006. When I finally got her interested in politics in 2008 she became a solid Dem!

Arizona is a state I think we could flip this year-large Spanish contingent and the Seniors are freaked out when they realize the only thing standing between them and a Medicare voucher is the Dem Senate and this POTUS!

Yes there is some revenge coming their way for blocking everything in the Congress becoming political terrorists against this economy and the 99%! PS WE ARE VOTING :)!!!!

More divisiveness from the Class Warrior in Chief himself.

Pathetic

Hope and Change has changed to Hate an Deride.

You didn't build that!

Has everyone seen the time line released about the situation in benghazi. Bunch of republican heads are gonna exploded. Where your order from the President to stand down foolishness, where your real time video from a drone on patrol when we don't have any drones over Libya, where is your c-130 spooky that got order from the president not to engage. Huh,Huh, could it be that fox news....dare i say it, they lied.

If this is the president that claims he means what he says, why is it that someone always has to clean up after him? He said "revenge' and he means revenge, no matter how you try to cover for him. Keep up the good work Obama. There's still two days left for you to swing more voters towards Romney.

I want revenge....revenge for two LONG bush wars. That's what the Republicans area about...an old style of arrogant interacting with the world, embracing war, torture, nation-building....it goes on and on in a style that looks backward.

Neither Obama nor Romney are perfect...they are flawed human beings like all of us....but the higher road is to vote FOR civil rights and human rights, which is more in line with obama's policies.

All bible thumping hypocrits need to be getting ready for worship services make sure you give proper thanks to that God that is promoting pregnancy by rape. With a God like that on the side of women I don't think they need any other enemies. But what do I know because my God doesn't endorse rape.

Vote for an American.

Spinning.

Our Divider in Chief, 4 years of Obama trying to divide us, misleading women, with scare tactics, attempting to divide seniors with false ads, Tax the 1 %, catholic Church lawsuits, state lawsuits over immigration, name calling becuase he can't run on his failed 4.

Now it's vote for revenge, nice

Loosers take revenge, Winners don't need revege. Obama is panicing.